The Impact of Fate

[Malbec]

Had one team gone on to being successful instead of the other. For instance, had it been BAR-Honda (or Toyota) instead of Renault, who went on to build championship winning cars in mid-noughties, what would it have done to the careers of Button (Trulli) or Alonso? Heidfeld is another popular case - no top cars, no wins, but...

Lets play with that one a little.

What if Honda had not cancelled their F1 project in '99? Harvey Postlethwaite may not have died and the core of his design team who then were mostly snapped up at Renault would have stayed at Honda.

Renault probably wouldn't have done as well without the engineering talent they got from the cancelled Honda project and might not have been in a position to win championships.

How much better would Honda have done than BAR? I know that BAR got their hands on the Dallara Honda prototype and that it did a lot better than their '99 car on the test rig.

So, what would the implications have been? BAR wouldn't have had a works engine deal, Renault would have lost out and Honda would have been the 12th team so Toyota would have found it difficult to enter F1 (if there was a 12 team limit back then)....

[BDunnell]

Vanwall/Lewis-Evans: The very first constructor's champions. Vandervell's deteriorating health and a season marred by the death of promising upstart, Stuart Lewis-Evans damped the spirits of the team of subsequent entries proved unsuccessful. Had Lewis-Evans not died, could the team have found the energy to bring the 1958 championship into the following season? Or, if the team had still folded, would Lewis-Evans find a drive in a top end team?

Please, someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Lewis-Evans still being around would have helped Vanwall much given the way in which the team failed to move with the times post-1958.

[FAL]

It's quite likely any full team effort by Vanwall in 59 would have proved to have had an inferior car to the 59 Ferrari, leave alone the fast improving rear engined cars (as implied in the previous post). Vanwall was not the fastest reacting team, as witnessed by the fuel changes for 58/the bringing forward of the 58 Argentine GP.
Would Lewis-Evans have found a seat in 59? Somewhere, no doubt, but wasn't his health poor? (even if not as bad as Hawthorn's would have become, had he lived, retired or not)
Lewis-Evans had already had one Ferrari works drive in sports cars, so was not considered a one-team driver in the wider world. A Cooper (even a second Walker car?) to start 59, then taking Behra's seat at Ferrari is one possible scenario.

Re-Mercedes, hadn't thay already (in private) taken the decision to stop F1 for 56 before events at the 55 Le Mans? Le Mans only caused them to drop plans to continue in 56 in sports cars?

[D-Type]

Please, someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Lewis-Evans still being around would have helped Vanwall much given the way in which the team failed to move with the times post-1958.

At the end of 1958 Vanwall effectively withdrew. At this distance in time it's difficult to establish the real reasons. The record says that Tony Vandervell was having health problems (was it a heart attack?) and advised by his doctors to take it easier. On of the things he cut back was the racing team. The death of Stuart Lewis Evans certainly did upset Vandervell and no doubt was a factor in Vandervell's decision.

We now have to enter the realms of supposition. Had Lewis Evans not been killed, would this have been sufficient incentive for Vandervell to have kept the team going? If so, then it would have been a wholehearted commitment certainly with Moss and Lewis Evans as drivers and probably with Brooks as well. In 1959 front engined cars were still in contention - after all they took 3 wins to Cooper's 5 and Brooks missed the championship by a mere 4 points. A Vanwall would have been as competitive as BRM and Ferrari were. Then into 1960, if Vanwall had been fully committed to racing, they would certainly have produced a rear engined car and if not available at the beginning of the season it would certainly have emerged earlier than the BRM. I don't think that you should read too much into the fact that Vanwall failed to move with the times, this was because it was a low key and low budget operation that only happened because Vandervell didn't want to totally disband his development team.

The other supposition, if Vanwall had still withdrawn' which is likely as they had achieved what Vandervell set out to do, ie to beat the Italians, where would Lewis Evans have gone to? There was no doubt about his pace and everybody knew he was the junior driver at Vanwall with third choice of equipment in a period when the difference between individual cars was greater. So he would have been a marketable proposition, particularly with Bernie Ecclestone doing the marketing! Cooper had a full house, but BRM, Lotus or Ferrari would have been happy to have him on their strength. At BRM he would have been ranked ahead of Flockhart and would have been the youngster having to establish his position in comparison with veterans Bonnier and Schell. He would definitely have matched them for speed, but in race craft who knows? At Lotus, assuming Allison had still moved to Ferrari he would have been on a par with Graham Hill for experience and ahead of Alan Stacey and in contention for the top spot. He had driven before for Ferrari, at Le Mans in 1957 so they obviously knew what he was capable of. Given Ferrari's tendency to let a pecking order of drivers develop, I think Behra and Brooks would still have been contenders for unofficial no 1 and Lewis Evans would have been in competition with Phil Hill and Allison. The dark horse was Aston Martin - they used their established sports car drivers but had Stuart been available they might well have signed him up.

EDit: just to say that this was written without seeing FAL's post

[Bezza]

I love this kind of discussions. Cheers for starting this Bezza Some of my own favourite 'what ifs' would be:

Alessandro Nannini: Nannini was beginning to show some real speed by the time he suffered a career-ending hand injury in 1990. Maybe not world championship material but certainly a multiple race winner if he was to remain with Benetton. Would his presence at Benetton have affected the unknown quantity that was Michael Schumacher during the 1991 season?

You know I meant to mention Nannini originally but it slipped my mind. The internet seems lack much info on Nannini, considering he was coming to the end of 1990 when he had his helicopter crash, did he have a contract for 1991? I am presuming yes - because Roberto Moreno, a driver not as good as Nannini, took over the last couple of races and then raced in 1991 too until Schumacher appeared on the scene.

Therefore, I am positioning that Nannini's hand injury was a key component of Michael Schumacher's early success. Nannini was quick and in 1991 may have beaten Piquet, who was at the end of his career.

Schumacher almost certainly, after his Belgium debut with Jordan, would not have gone to Benetton in 1991. He could have turned up there in 1992 after finishing the 1991 season with Jordan, taking over from Piquet or Nannini. Nannini could have stayed and Brundle would have had no 1992 drive. However, he could instead have tested for Williams instead of Damon Hill and ended up there in 1993 in his place!

[ArrowsFA1]

...did he have a contract for 1991? I am presuming yes - because Roberto Moreno, a driver not as good as Nannini, took over the last couple of races and then raced in 1991 too until Schumacher appeared on the scene.

My memory is probably failing me but I recall him having contact with Williams & maybe Ferrari around this time. IIRC he'd even given up his addictions to caffine & nicotine so he must have been taking F1 seriously but Sandro always appeared to me to enjoy life too much to take F1 too seriously.

[jens]

Nannini was improving steadily with each season in F1 and by 1990 he was very impressive. He made some mistakes, but from my recollection on average he was faster than Piquet that year. The battle with Schumacher in 1992 would have been interesting! Shame we didn't see more of him in F1, Kubica could fall into the same category. One race win for both, lots of promise in strong 3rd-4th best cars, but career didn't last long enough to get into true top cars...

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As we are in such topic already...
It would be fascinating to play the following game throughout the whole history of F1 - if there were no deaths/career-ending injuries...(hence somehow always having the kind of safety we have now) We could get some fascinating driver line-ups in many periods. For instance imagine Senna and G.Villeneuve racing against each other. A mouthwatering prospect for many F1 fans that was never seen. Add in Pironi, de Angelis and Bellof for the late 80's too. Clark vs Rindt vs Stewart in early 70's in their primes. Also I guess the career of Moss would have been longer - battling against the rising Clark.

[Bruce D]

Taking it back even further I was thinking about this yesterday - what if Achille Varzi and Jean-Pierre Wimille hadn't died just before 1950 as they were arguably the top 2 drivers at that time but Fangio hadn't arrived in Europe yet.

What if WW2 hadn't happened, would the likes of Rosemeyer (provided he hadn't died right before it) and Caracciola have been really famous and world champions? And if Nuvolari had been younger?

These guys performed amazing things and yet modern day people don't know about them.

[Don Capps]

At the end of 1958 Vanwall effectively withdrew. At this distance in time it's difficult to establish the real reasons. The record says that Tony Vandervell was having health problems (was it a heart attack?) and advised by his doctors to take it easier. On of the things he cut back was the racing team. The death of Stuart Lewis Evans certainly did upset Vandervell and no doubt was a factor in Vandervell's decision.

You need to read the statement that Vandervell issued in January 1959 regarding the withdrawal of the Vanwall team from competition. It was very clear at the time that health issues were the primary factor in the decision, but also that the team had largely accomplished its mission of producing a machine fully capable of beating Ferrari. The death of Stuart-Evans certainly played a role, but probably not as large of one as many now assume.

Had Vandervell fielded a team for the 1959 season, one supported as it had been for 1958, with the cars updated and the Moss/Brooks team intact, it would have probably been very competitive and possibly a match for the Coopers under most conditions. Keep in mind that Ferrari gave the Coopers a true run for their money and did not lose the championship without a fight. One can easily imagine Vanwall being similarly combative during the season.

There is sufficient reason to think that even with 1959 being a season during which the front-engined cars continued to dominate, that Aston Martin would still have been a lost cause. Not a dark horse, but a nag also-ran.

However, the point remains that one can play Harry Turtledove and create all the alternative history one could wish, but still not alter what actually happened. Pipe dreams are still pipe dreams.

[Malbec]

What if WW2 hadn't happened, would the likes of Rosemeyer (provided he hadn't died right before it) and Caracciola have been really famous and world champions? And if Nuvolari had been younger?

If Hitler hadn't been a petrolhead Auto Union and Mercedes wouldn't have received so much state funding and have been so dominant. What effect would that have had on motorsport in Britain and France for example?

There wouldn't have been a VW or Porsche without Hitler's support either, and BMW would likely have stayed a small motorbike manufacturer. The various possibilities are endless.