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  1. #1
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    The Impact of Fate

    Been doing a lot of research over the last few months in my spare time over F1 in days gone by, and had a thought about how different the history of F1 would be without the numerous acts of fate we have endured over the 60+ years.

    Consider these examples, and potentially how different F1's results would have been:

    Jim Clark, 1968 - Died whilst at the peak of his abilities, with Hill winning the title at the end of that year, surely had Clark not died he would have won the 1968 title, and then, judging by car performance, could have won in 1970 and 1972 - he would still only have been mid-late 30's which was normal in those days. Would Jochen Rindt have joined Lotus at all without Clark's death as well? And would Clark have continued with Lotus for his whole career?

    Francois Cevert, 1973 - Was matching Stewart at the end of 1973 before his tragic death. In 1974 he would have been team leader - surely notching up more wins and potentially moving on to a Ferrari or McLaren in the coming years with his talent - the knock on effect on which would have displaced drivers such as Regazzoni or Mass for example.

    Ronnie Peterson, 1978 - Sadly died at Monza, could have added another win before end of the season and was due to lead McLaren in 1979. How would he have fared there? Immensely talented but his performances were a bit up and down over his career. John Watson and Alain Prost were at McLaren in 1980, would it have been Watson who did not drive for McLaren, or would Prost not get his debut with McLaren?

    Stefan Bellof, 1985 - Only two years into his career, I believe I am right in thinking he had a contract for Ferrari for 1986 before his death. Ferrari's 1986 drivers were Stefan Johansson and Michele Alboreto, and the car was not great. However, the 1987 car was better. Would Berger have joined Ferrari in 1987 if Bellof & Alboreto was the line up. It could have been Alboreto was replaced for Berger, instead of Johansson. Bellof looked in the Senna mould, could he have joined Williams or McLaren later?

    Robert Kubica, 2011 - A modern one for you. Of course, Robert is thankfully still with us and on the mend. His life is not in danger, but is his career? How would he have performed in the Renault in 2011? Heidfeld would not have a final podium to his name. And going forward, Kubica was rumoured to Ferrari for either 2012 or 2013. Will this happen for him, even if he does return?

    I've only scratched the surface really here - what about Peter Collins, Chris Bristow, Lorenzo Bandini, Piers Courage, Jochen Rindt, Ignazio Giunti, Roger Williamson, Tom Pryce, Gilles Villeneuve, Elio de Angelis & of course Ayrton Senna?

    And then drivers who have had non-fatal but career-interrupting incidents. Are they ever 100% the same as they were before the crash - for example Niki Lauda, Olivier Panis, Felipe Massa ?

    I am struck by how much effect fate can have over a sport like this.
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    If Schumacher and Hill hadn't have collided in 1994 at Adelaide then Hill would be WDC in 1994&1996, probably wouldn't have been sacked my Williams for 1997, so Damon Hill could potentially have been a triple WDC.
    Tazio 14/3/2015: I'll give every member on this forum 1,000.00 USD if McLaren fails to podium this season!

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    Quote Originally Posted by henners88
    Plus seeing how close Hill took Schumacher in 1994 and challenged at times during 1995, had Senna lived, would Michael have claimed his first 2 titles? Theres so many "what if's" in the history of this sport.
    Titles for Senna in 1994, 1995, 1996 and 1997. 7 time WDC.

    Although I still believe Schumacher would have won in 1995.
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    Monza 1988 for me seems almost religious in its series of coincidences.

    With Senna and Prost well on the way to winning every single race for McLaren-Honda, Enzo Ferrari dies a few weeks before Monza, Ferrari's home race. Prost and Senna romp off in the lead, then Prost has an engine failure. Doesn't matter as Senna is on the verge of clinching victory anyway when he trips over Jean-Louis Schlesser and gets knocked out, handing Ferrari a home victory and the only non-McLaren winner of the season.

    McLaren-Honda therefore were denied a clean sweep of the entire season at Monza thanks to Jean-Louis Schlesser whose uncle Jo Schlesser died in the Honda RA302 back in 1968, an accident that partially convinced Honda to withdraw first time round from F1.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brown, Jon Brow
    Titles for Senna in 1994, 1995, 1996 and 1997. 7 time WDC.

    Although I still believe Schumacher would have won in 1995.
    Would he have then gone to Ferrari if he and hill had one title apeice? We may well have seen in remain with Benetton for the 1997 season. Would he have gone to Ferrari at all? Would we have seen the domination of the early 2000's? It was an event that happened over a handful of seconds but had a profound impact.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bezza
    Ronnie Peterson, 1978 - Sadly died at Monza, could have added another win before end of the season and was due to lead McLaren in 1979. How would he have fared there? Immensely talented but his performances were a bit up and down over his career. John Watson and Alain Prost were at McLaren in 1980, would it have been Watson who did not drive for McLaren, or would Prost not get his debut with McLaren?
    Ronnie was set to replace James Hunt for the 1979 season and I think that was a done deal by Monza. When Ronnie sadly died it was Watson who was signed to partner Tambay so the 1979 McLaren lineup would have been Peterson & Tambay. Tambay was highly regarded at McLaren at that time (they chose him over Gilles Villeneuve) and it would have been interesting to see whether the teams fortunes would have been any different. I think it's unlikely.

    Ronnie was not known for his ability as a test/development driver and given the cars McLaren produced in 1979/80 he may have experienced much as he did while with Tyrrell. Of course he would have extracted the maximum out of the M28 & M29 but I wouldn't see him developing those cars into front runners.

    I seem to recall reading that Peterson was talking of retirement and perhaps McLaren would have been his last team in F1. With that in mind, and given the way McLaren performed with Watson/Tambay, maybe Ronnie would have walked away into safe retirement at the end of 1979.
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    Quote Originally Posted by henners88
    Thats a good question, because Schumacher himself took an awful lot of convincing to go to Ferrari in the first place. Jean Todt (Ferrari) approached Willi Weber about the possibility of getting him onboard during 1995 and assured him big changes were being made at Maranello and they were a team of the future. Schumacher was convinced Williams was the team to drive for and he was right in the short term. Michael met with both teams concerning contracts and after months of Weber trying to convince him, he signed for Ferrari for '96. He admitted during 1996 he thought he'd made a big mistake, but I'm guessing when Brawn followed him for 1997, some of his faith was restored. Senna made close friends aware he had a desire to drive for Ferrari also, which is why I think circumstances may have been very different. Senna would have been 36 in 1996 and would we have seen them side by side at Ferrari, or Schumacher chasing his second title in an uncompetitive 1997 Benetton? Who knows?
    I have read McLaren was seriously courting Schumacher too. Arguably when Mercedes and McLaren started a partnership in 1995, they were also interested in attracting Schumacher in doing so. Thinking that two big names (McL and Merc) together would make it an appealing combo for the German driver for the future. And IIRC during 1995 Schumacher was pretty much choosing between McLaren and Ferrari, but wasn't particularly fond of Ron Dennis personally, hence opted for Ferrari.

    By the way, I don't think 1997 Benetton would have been uncompetitive if Team Schumacher had all stayed there. Pretty much the opposite. :

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    Quote Originally Posted by ArrowsFA1
    Ronnie was set to replace James Hunt for the 1979 season and I think that was a done deal by Monza.
    Mention here of Hunt reminds me of the most interesting story told recently by former Ferrari team boss Daniele Audetto to Nigel Roebuck, and reported in Motor Sport — that Hunt had agreed at one stage (I forget exactly when, and indeed whether a contract had been signed) to go to Ferrari, but that the deal was blocked by, of all companies, Vauxhall. This was apparently due to Hunt having an advertising deal with Vauxhall. Now there's a 'what if', though I suspect the outcome would still have been Hunt retiring pretty much when he did.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bezza
    Jim Clark, 1968 - Died whilst at the peak of his abilities, with Hill winning the title at the end of that year, surely had Clark not died he would have won the 1968 title, and then, judging by car performance, could have won in 1970 and 1972 - he would still only have been mid-late 30's which was normal in those days. Would Jochen Rindt have joined Lotus at all without Clark's death as well? And would Clark have continued with Lotus for his whole career?

    Francois Cevert, 1973 - Was matching Stewart at the end of 1973 before his tragic death. In 1974 he would have been team leader - surely notching up more wins and potentially moving on to a Ferrari or McLaren in the coming years with his talent - the knock on effect on which would have displaced drivers such as Regazzoni or Mass for example.

    Stefan Bellof, 1985 - Only two years into his career, I believe I am right in thinking he had a contract for Ferrari for 1986 before his death. Ferrari's 1986 drivers were Stefan Johansson and Michele Alboreto, and the car was not great. However, the 1987 car was better. Would Berger have joined Ferrari in 1987 if Bellof & Alboreto was the line up. It could have been Alboreto was replaced for Berger, instead of Johansson. Bellof looked in the Senna mould, could he have joined Williams or McLaren later?

    I've only scratched the surface really here - what about Peter Collins, Chris Bristow, Lorenzo Bandini, Piers Courage, Jochen Rindt, Ignazio Giunti, Roger Williamson, Tom Pryce, Gilles Villeneuve, Elio de Angelis & of course Ayrton Senna?
    I think the likelihood is that Clark would have stayed with Lotus for his whole career. He definately would have won all those titles you mentioned, but Rindt would probably have still moved there, but only in 1970 when Hill was dropped. The chance that Fittipaldi would have gone there would probably have been slim given they would have had Clark and Rindt.

    As far as Cevert he could certainly have won the '74 title, because if you remember Scheckter was equal first in the title going into the final rounds in the same car and he was a rookie. The question is whether Cevert would have been as quick if he didn't have the motivation and help of Stewart alongside. Beyond that season I'm not sure. Tyrrell basically started to lose their way after that and he would probably have spent too long there. Maybe a move to McLaren or Ferrari would have happened later.

    Bellof was part of the works Porsche sportscar team so it's likely the link to McLaren would have put him in one for '87 or something. Ultimately he would have probably wound up in Ferrari or Lotus. Remember in that particular era there were a lot of top drivers around and hardly any good cars, you basically had McLaren, Williams, and then Lotus and Ferrari, and then on the driver front you had Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet, Alboreto, so there was a lack of seats for the talent around.

    Of the rest you mentioned: Collins should have won the '56 title but handed it (and his car) to Fangio so there you have it. I'm not sure he could have achieved more than he did. It might have been interesting to see what he could have done with the '61 Ferrari, he probably would have been champion then. I honestly don't know much about Bristow or Giunti so I won't comment there. Personally I believe Bandini achieved all he was ever going to. He could match Surtees on the day but not often enough to be a champion. Courage was good, but even by reading books about him he seemed a bit of a wild thing and car breaker. Rindt, hard to tell but probably would have won again in '72, but he was thinking hard about retiring and about making his own team with Ecclestone, so I don't think his mind was completely right anymore. Having read the book "The Lost Generation" I definately think Williamson could have been a big player in F1, he was certainly quick enough, but with who I'm not sure. I think he had a few deals in place at the time of his death. Tom Pryce was very talented, more than even books from the period let on, but he wasted it sitting at Shadow too long, he should have moved long before he died. If he had, then maybe we could have seen more and could have been able to tell. Villeneuve was brilliant to watch, but if the car was off the pace he was nowhere, he would drive the wheels off it but couldn't put together a championship fight. Him in the 1983 car would have been interesting, who knows, maybe he could have been champion then, but they would have also had to deal with Brabham cheating with the fuel in the end. De Angelis was a personal favourite of mine but I think the move to Brabham was a career mistake and I doubt he would have recovered much from it; remember that was his 8th season in F1 by then and it wasn't common to go much beyond 10. As for Senna, a little while ago I came across a website that gave a whole analysis of what might have happened had Senna not died based on a lot of logical argument of how the Williams performed after that. It's more than likely he would have won the '94, '95, '96, and '97 titles and then retired. That would have given him 7 titles, but somehow, given the level of respect he had for Fangio, I think he might have retired at 5 so as not to beat the legend.
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  19. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce D
    As far as Cevert he could certainly have won the '74 title, because if you remember Scheckter was equal first in the title going into the final rounds in the same car and he was a rookie. The question is whether Cevert would have been as quick if he didn't have the motivation and help of Stewart alongside. Beyond that season I'm not sure. Tyrrell basically started to lose their way after that and he would probably have spent too long there. Maybe a move to McLaren or Ferrari would have happened later.
    One might add: what if Stewart hadn't retired at the end of '73? He himself said recently that he thinks he could have been champion again in '74.

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