Tänak's contract ends in 2019 and would you believe they'd drop any Finns?
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Purely my own thoughts 5.5.2018.
Neuville will most likely stay at Hyundai. Meeke could be out or maybe go for M-Sport if Ogier leaves? Ogier could do anything. Sordo drives either for Hyundai or quits, Paddon pretty much same. Evans could be out of the scene but will most likely continue in M-Sport. Latvala either continues on Toyota or leaves WRC. Mikkelsen stays in Hyundai unless M-Sport or Citroen finds interest/money to get him. Breen should be #1 Citroen driver next year depending how things go with Meeke - Loeb could change things if he makes a full comeback ( this could be a best change for WRC to keep it interesting). Suninen is going to drive full season with M-Sport as a 3rd driver without a paycheck.
Who could hop in?
Ostberg - did well in Sweden as expected, rest of the outings this year will be crucial. Tidemand; WRC2 champ 2017 and seems to do that in 2018 aswell but is he fast enough to take over a WRC seat? At the moment my bet would be no.
Rovanperä - Has 2+1 year contract with Skoda so not in 2019 and atleast 1 year more in WRC2 would not be bad for him as he still need experience.
Veiby is not up for it, Huttunen is not ready unless Hyundai really wants to go for him, Lefevbre needs to really show some pace to have any change, Camilli seems to be out (no drives after Monte).
Katsuta, I don't think so, maybe if Latvala is out and there is no one to fill his slot, this would be same as huttunen joining Hyundai - Bet for the future.
Tbh current situation looks rather bad. WRC drivers are getting "old" Sordo, Ogier, Latvala, Meeke all of them could be out/retire after this season. Maybe Skoda's possible 2020 WRC campaing could make a positive change as it would most likely be young'ish Skoda team versus others (Tidemand, Rovanperä, Veiby and/or Nordgren).
Hopefully WRC lives on for a long time still but it could end sooner than we're expecting. Hopefully i'm wrong.
Three key points in my eyes:
- As a year to year proposition - will Ogier remain in WRC next year?
- Will Citroen stay true to their word and stick out the final season of their WRC commitment?
- I can't see any way in which Hyundai start next season with five contracted drivers.
Only Tanak and Mikkelsen are pretty safe until the end of 2019.
Others are free for grabs.
Hyundai will go after Ogier, especially if they don't win drivers title. Thierry will also be their priority. Sordo showed his good pace from past and that he could bring important points home. Unless Paddon show that too we all know who will win this battle for 3rd seat.
M-Sport - Again Ogier. Probably Evans also. Maybe Ostberg again. Suninen or maybe Tidemand.
Citroen (If they stay in the game-I have a feeling that they don't care a lot and will retire). - No other than Loeb. Again they will put money into Meeke and Craig probably lose a seat or do part programme.
Toyota - They will probably stay the same except Ott would be driver number 1 and latvala two.
Drivers that could lose a seat: Paddon, Craig Breen (unless Loeb don't come back and Citroen don't retire), Meeke (same as previous), maybe Latvala (but I don't believe that).
There's a lot of water to flow under the bridge yet this season. I wouldn't be writing Paddon off by any stretch of the imagination. Only two seasons ago everybody was touting him as a future champion and Nandan will know that he is one of the very few who has the pace to match Neuville, Ogier and Tanak. He will bring Hyundai a championship. Mikkelsen and Sordo will not.
Paddon's a very old-fashion type of driver who only excels on the loose stuff. I can only think of him and Östberg who are in that category in the bunch of the current factory drivers, the others can pretty much perform everywhere.
Even though Mikkelsen's start to the year has not been good enough, he's still a more attractive option to have for a full year.
Why would Toyota keep Latvala? They apparently have a great car. So not difficult to lure a good driver. My be is Tanak, Lappi and Breen/ Neuville/ Mikkelsen. Fourth car for Katsuta in near future.
Latvala, 1 podium so far this season, behind both his teammates in the standing. All new Ogier approach at the beginning of the season, didn't work after 3 rallyes, now all in for victory, even worse results... To me it looks like the beginning of the end. If Lappi continues to improve, Tanak will be #1, Lappi #2 next season and i would suspect Latvala to have the opportunity to do 1 more season and that's the end of his career.