Which of the four times WDC is going to reach 5 WDC first?

I remember on this forum some three years back, there were arguments of whether Hamilton was better than Vettel who was a four time WDC at the time and Hamilton only had one. This forum was quite divided with very slender majority for Hamilton. Well, now Hamilton has gone and matched Vettel to be equally a quadruple F1 driver world champion. As we head into the 2018 season, the opportunity is most likely equal for both quadruple WDCs to extend their titles to five. The question is which of the two would you put your money on to become a five time WDC by the end of the 2018 season; Vettel or Hamilton? Assuming that Redbull do not turn up with a car that is rapid enough to cause an upset.

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Originally Posted by Nitrodaze

I remember on this forum some three years back, there was argument of whether Hamilton was better than Vettel who was a four time WDC at the time and Hamilton only had one. This forum was quite divided with very slender majority for Hamilton. Well, now Hamilton has gone and matched Vettel to be equally a quadruple F1 driver world champion. As we head into the 2018 season, the opportunity is most likely equal for both quadruple WDCs to extend their titles to five. The question is which of the two would you put your money on to become a five time WDC by the end of the 2018 season; Vettel or Hamilton? Assuming that Redbull do not turn up with a car that is rapid enough to cause an upset.

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IMHO, Vettel doesn't stand a real chance in Ferrari until the FIA forces a major power unit change. Merc. in the hands of Hamilton is simply too dominant.

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Originally Posted by nigelred5

IMHO, Vettel doesn't stand a real chance in Ferrari until the FIA forces a major power unit change. Merc. in the hands of Hamilton is simply too dominant.

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I don't think Ferrari want the current hybrid power unit to change very much. Besides, the Ferrari engine is equally as powerful as the Mercedes engine. The real differences are in the chassis, reliability and race strategy. The Mercedes had a poor chassis compared to the Ferrari this year but made up for it with great reliability and made no mistakes on race weekends. Ferrari had the better chassis but had poorer reliability and both driver [Vettel] and team made a number of costly mistakes.
I think if you swap the cars between the two teams; i.e. give Mercedes the Ferrari chassis and Ferrari the Mercedes chassis, Mercedes would have won the constructors championship by a country mile and Hamilton would have also won the WDC in the Ferrari chassis.

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Originally Posted by Nitrodaze

Besides, the Ferrari engine is equally as powerful as the Mercedes engine. The real differences are in the chassis, reliability and race strategy.

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No.

2017 - MB: 1 4 5 (av 3.33) v Ferrari: 2 8 (av 5.00 - can't include an old unit)
2016 - MB: 1 4 5 11 (av 5.25) v Ferrari: 3 7 8 10 (av 7.00)
2015 - MB: 1 3 4 6 (av 3.50) v Ferrari: 2 8 10 (av 6.66)
2015 - MB: 1 3 5 6 (av 3.75) v Ferrari: 2 8 10 (av 6.66)

The current rules have locked in advantage and disadvantage.

Not unless there is a marked change in allowing engine manufacturer's to go testing, that current set of advantage and disadvantages remain. Expect McLaren to finish 6th and still behind the MB cars, and expect MB to still dominate la scarletti.

It’s hard to say. The concept of Ferrari’s car seems sounder than Mercedes for future development. RBR may also have a say in next years championship but with Merc speaking about changing the concept of their car for next year, I can’t help but think of McLaren 2013 when they did the same thing and paid the price for it. If Merc continue to develop from their current package and make good steps forward, they’ll win. Otherwise Ferrari could steal a jump on them.

I still maintain Ferrari had the best overall package this year, they just didn’t make the most of it. I honestly can’t call next year but one would imagine that Mercedes are smart enough to stay ahead. But it’s ultimately whom ever makes the better decisions over the winter will probably decide the next 5 time WDC.

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Originally Posted by Rollo

The current rules have locked in advantage and disadvantage.

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Not any more. Engine updates are now free for all. The big problem was in 2014-2016 when there was literally a limit on the number of engine parts that can be replaced. (Even though all parties agreed to this, that looked like incredibly stupid rule well in advance IMHO)

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Originally Posted by The Black Knight

But it’s ultimately whom ever makes the better decisions over the winter will probably decide the next 5 time WDC.

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Let's not forget the drivers. If Vettel performs like he did since the summer, his chances will not be very good.

Assuming Hamilton comes into the season with his head screwed on straight (meaning no Kardashian/Jenners in his life) and Merc produces a better all-around chassis for next year, I'd have to give him the nod to reach five first.

I've honestly been impressed with how much Hamilton has matured over the years... Vettel, not so much. Even with fierce intra-team battles against Rosberg, he hung tough (though it was ugly and destructive within the team). But in seeing how easily Vettel withered against Ricciardo, and then again when the heat rose this past season against Hamilton, I think that Vettel still provides too much competition against himself. I really think/hope that next year is full of fierce battles between Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. I don't see anyone other than Hamilton or Vettel winning the championship (I don't even see Raikkonen winning a race, unless Vettel drops out and Ferrari allows it). But I do expect Bottas, Verstappen and Ricciardo to be race winning spoilers along the way. One of those guys could decide who wins the WDC.

Even as an American who will have to endure the suck that will likely be ESPN's coverage, I can't wait!!! :bounce:

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Originally Posted by zako85

Let's not forget the drivers. If Vettel performs like he did since the summer, his chances will not be very good.

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Yeah, it’s interesting to see that Hamilton was once again nominated to be the best driver on the grid amongst autosports end of year survey of team bosses. It just shows the respect he carries in he pitlane. He has had to work a lot harder for his championships than Vettel did for his and I think most team bosses would rather Hamilton driving in their team than Vettel.

Personally, l would wait till after the first round of testing before l venture a guess. It was so close this last season, l would not write off Ferrari for 2018. I think Merc are going to dump their long wheelbase chassis for a Ferrari like platform. I would not be surprised to see the Merc with a rake chassis like Redbull and Ferrari.

While Mercedes maybe forced to redesign their chassis, Ferrari would be tweaking and honing their chassis. One would think that Ferrari would have the edge off the block compared to the Merc at Melborne. But l expect the mercs to catch up within three races. If this turns out to be the case, Vettel would start the year with the advantages reaped from these three races with Hamilton doing damage limitation until the Merc comes good.

It could really come down to how well Vettel can maintain his early lead through the season and how focused Hamilton is this year to fight Vettel all the way. Also, Bottas could hand the title to Vettel if Mercedes allows him to race Hamilton or gets the jump on Hamilton to be the merc driver with the most points in contention with Vettel.

Which ever way it goes, it is likely that Ferrari and Vettel might have the early points advantage by the end of the first quarter of the season. Hence, it is likely to be an even harder year for Mercedes and Hamilton to win the two titles. But l have a sneaky feeling that Mercedes may prevail in the end.

Nigel Mansel has start the ball rolling by stating that Hamilton is his favorite for the 2018 title. He sees the title to be between Hamilton and Vettel with Verstapenn as an outside chance.

Hamilton has shown his intent with the fastest lap in Test One. Vettel responded with the fastest lap in Test Two. From a car perspective, Hamilton has the edge but is handicapped by Bottas that would cease any opportunity to beat him. Vettel is very close but recent Oil issue with the Ferrari suggest that he may be playing catchup to Hamilton initially. But Vettel has a wingman in Kimi, which kind of level things.

That said, where would you put your money at this stage of the game.

I’m going to put my money on Hamilton. That Mercedes wasn’t ran anywhere near low fuel or even on hypersoft tyres. I think Mercedes may have a bigger gap this year to the rest of the field and on their long runs they were over a second a lap quicker than anyone else. I’ve had a feeling about that Mercedes ever since I saw it. It looks super quick. Can’t wait for Melbourne. I hope the battle is close and Mercedes don’t have the advantage I think they have.

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Originally Posted by The Black Knight

I’m going to put my money on Hamilton. That Mercedes wasn’t ran anywhere near low fuel or even on hypersoft tyres. I think Mercedes may have a bigger gap this year to the rest of the field and on their long runs they were over a second a lap quicker than anyone else. I’ve had a feeling about that Mercedes ever since I saw it. It looks super quick. Can’t wait for Melbourne. I hope the battle is close and Mercedes don’t have the advantage I think they have.

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True, but Bottas could be king maker this season if he is allowed to race Hamilton hard. If Mercedes want to ensure that the driver title come to them, they may well have Bottas play wingman to Hamilton and pick up wins whenever Hamilton is having troubles. That said, Bottas may well emerge as the title contender but l somehow doubt it. Only if Hamilton suddenly have the engine juju that handed the title to Rosberg in 2016 again, l think.

If Bottas is forced to play wingman to Hamilton, then Redbull could be king makers this season. Since they are close enough to win a number of races. Any of the front runners finding themselves with new issues during the season could be punished severely by the Redbull. Much like last year, as both Mercedes and Ferrari found.

Vettel chalks up the first step towards being ahead.

I did not see this coming with all the talk of the Ferrari smoke at the end of testing, but Vettel leads the drivers championship and by a good 17 points from Hamilton. Mercedes seem not to be at their usual level of perfection. I wonder if the Ferrari team have got their act together to take full advantage of this early lead. Or at least hang on till Abu Dhabi for a grand closing race.

The pendulum is swinging the Vettel way at the mo. And l think the chaps at Mercedes would start to worry if the Chinese GP turns out in Vettel and Ferrari's favour again. I have a feeling that Mercedes would bounce back at China. But they have work to do being behind in the constructors and driver's championship.

Ferrari seem to be emerging out of the shadow of the Mercedes as the team to beat in 2018. Much to some people's surprise, Vettel has got off the blocks with three back to back wins. He is beginning to look like the favorite to bag a 5th title thus far.

I still think the Mercedes is the team to beat. But as they struggle to harness the power of their fearsome engine, Ferrari is looking resurgent and is making hay while the sun is shining on them. If Hamilton finishes where he is starting in 4th, Vettel may build his championship lead to 30 points, with Ferrari possibly stretching the constructors title lead to about 20 points.

Mercedes Petronas team seem to have hit a bad patch and appear baffled by their lack of pace. Losing at Australia due to a glitch and Bottas being unable to capitalize on poor tyres in the closing stages of the Bahrain GP is now looking very significant now. Mercedes have always somehow managed to turn things around. But in such a very closely matched season, recovering shall be a hard but do-able. But small things such these first few races can very easily be the very factor that determines the outcome of this season's title fight.

If you had to go to the bookie to place a bet right now, l am sure it would be hard not to put your money on Vettel.

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Originally Posted by The Black Knight

I’m going to put my money on Hamilton. That Mercedes wasn’t ran anywhere near low fuel or even on hypersoft tyres. I think Mercedes may have a bigger gap this year to the rest of the field and on their long runs they were over a second a lap quicker than anyone else. I’ve had a feeling about that Mercedes ever since I saw it. It looks super quick. Can’t wait for Melbourne. I hope the battle is close and Mercedes don’t have the advantage I think they have.

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Hamilton may be leading the title but the smart money is on Vettel at the mo. At least until Mercedes find a cure for their tyre woes. Hamilton has been a shadow of himself lately with Bottas being the lead Mercedes for the last three races. That said, l would not write off Mercedes and Hamilton just yet. There are plenty races to come, hence anything is possible.

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Originally Posted by Nitrodaze

Hamilton may be leading the title but the smart money is on Vettel at the mo. At least until Mercedes find a cure for their tyre woes. Hamilton has been a shadow of himself lately with Bottas being the lead Mercedes for the last three races. That said, l would not write off Mercedes and Hamilton just yet. There are plenty races to come, hence anything is possible.

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so whats your say after todays Qualifying?

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Originally Posted by andyone

so whats your say after todays Qualifying?

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Barcelona is a Mercedes track. Everyone expected them to perform well here. Mercedes is likely to resume their tyre woes at Monaco where power is not a benefit but good aero package wins out. Redbull are likely to be strong there. Mercedes seem likely to struggle there but l would wait to see what the free practice times are suggesting.

Who is your money on now????

The way I see it, it is 50-50 now. After the 2017 season, I have been thinking that Hamilton is a more balanced and well-rounded driver, and with the superior Mercedes car he should certainly win. But at the rate his team keeps making strategy mistakes, or his car fails, or he makes bad starts.. or just because of bad luck, I think Vettel has a very good, not some kind of an outside or theoretical, chance of winning.

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Originally Posted by zako85

The way I see it, it is 50-50 now. After the 2017 season, I have been thinking that Hamilton is a more balanced and well-rounded driver, and with the superior Mercedes car he should certainly win. But at the rate his team keeps making strategy mistakes, or his car fails, or he makes bad starts.. or just because of bad luck, I think Vettel has a very good, not some kind of an outside or theoretical, chance of winning.

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The Mercedes is not looking like the superior car at the moment. Some may argue that the Ferrari is the superior car so far this season. How l see it, is that the championship is Vettel's to win or lose. Hamilton would have to do something quite extraordinary to steal it from Vettel come Abu Dhabi.

I have a feeling that Mercedes may stop developing this car soon and move their focus to their 2019 car. Which may mean that Hamilton may have to win it with an inferior car to the Ferrari. Monza has clearly shown that they are both close, but Ferrari have a few tenths over the Mercedes and they basically perform well on most types of tracks, which is something that Mercedes cannot say. A few tenths is enough to win both the Constructors and drivers championships.

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Originally Posted by Nitrodaze

The Mercedes is not looking like the superior car at the moment. Some may argue that the Ferrari is the superior car so far this season.

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I think this is correct. Over this summer we have seen in many cases where the Ferrari power is superior, maybe by a little notch, but not in same the way Mercedes was dominant over everyone in 2014-2016.

Hamilton is fighting hard to overcome what seems to be a slightly superior Ferrari as the season rolls on. And the only way Vettel is going to get back in the fight is if he quits screwing himself and driving like he isn't already a multiple WDC driver.

At this point I think Lewis is in Seb's head, and will continue to be until Lewis gets the WDC this year.

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Originally Posted by airshifter

Hamilton is fighting hard to overcome what seems to be a slightly superior Ferrari as the season rolls on. And the only way Vettel is going to get back in the fight is if he quits screwing himself and driving like he isn't already a multiple WDC driver.

At this point I think Lewis is in Seb's head, and will continue to be until Lewis gets the WDC this year.

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As it stands at the moment with Hamilton leading with 30 championship points, it would take Vettel five race wins to get back in the lead if Hamilton finishes second at those races and both of them do not have DNF or drop out of podium positions.

If Hamilton scores 14 more points than Vettel over the next two races, chances are that Vettel would need Hamilton to have some bad luck at the same time [Vettel] winning all races to the end of the season. With what happened in Monza and the rumour that Kimi is out from next season, l think Seb may not be getting Kimi's help going forward. Which would make it harder for Vettel to consistently beat Hamilton till the end of the season.

I have a feeling that the outcome of the driver's championship may be decided in a few races time.

Let's not build the whole possibilities tree as we still have one third of the championship ahead. Having said that, a 30 point deficit is not working in Vettel's favor right now.

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Originally Posted by zako85

Let's not build the whole possibilities tree as we still have one third of the championship ahead. Having said that, a 30 point deficit is not working in Vettel's favor right now.

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Fair point, l think reliability from this point may play a role in deciding which way it would go. This time last year Ferrari started to experience reliability issues. I have a feeling they would be better this year. The Mercedes package is not immune to reliability issues as we have noticed in the first half of the season, hence they have to keep on top of it as well.

On the driver front, the Mercedes pair are outperforming the combined Ferrari pair. But that may change. Somehow, l doubt it. the dynamics in the Ferrari team appears to be tense with Kimi not sure of keeping his seat next season. There also seem to be a slight tension developing between Kimi and Vettel.

The moment when Kimi took pole on Saturday, the cameras on sky switched to the Ferrari pitwall, the chaps at the Ferrari pitwall were clearly shocked and alarmed that he took pole. It was clear they would switch the drivers after the first lap if Vettel do not get ahead of Kimi.

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Originally Posted by Nitrodaze

With what happened in Monza and the rumour that Kimi ios out from next season, l think Seb may not be getting Kimi's help going forward. Which would make it harder for Vettel to consistently beat Hamilton till the end of the season.

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To be honest, Kimi hasn't really been much help to Vettel this season anyway, at least not in terms of taking points away from Hamilton.

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Originally Posted by zako85

Let's not build the whole possibilities tree as we still have one third of the championship ahead. Having said that, a 30 point deficit is not working in Vettel's favor right now.

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If Hamilton wins the next two races, he can finish 2nd in the remaining races and still be champion. But this is F1 and one DNF for Hamilton and the championship is open again. Based on what has happened so far this year, it would be a tragedy for Vettel to become champion. He hasn’t really had many great races or drove like a true champion much this year, however, all that matters is who is ahead in Abu Dhabi. As long as Hamilton remains focused I think he will be champion unless he has a run of very bad luck. Reliability may make a massive difference in the championship. Vettel can’t afford a DNF or it is game over if Lewis extends his lead to 55 points.

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Originally Posted by gm99

To be honest, Kimi hasn't really been much help to Vettel this season anyway, at least not in terms of taking points away from Hamilton.

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I don't think you can blame Kimi for that. Ferrari have not done a good enough for Kimi to steal points from Mercedes when the opportunity presented itself. But he has sacrificed his race many times to hold up the Mercedes to give Vettel a chance to retain or catch up to lead positions or build a descent gap to ensure a win. In reality he has helped Vettel alot this last two seasons.

Can Vettel recover some lost ground at Sochi?

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Originally Posted by Nitrodaze

Can Vettel recover some lost ground at Sochi?

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To recover the ground, Vettel has to win races, almost all of them, and start finishing ahead of Hamilton. Can this happen in Sochi? Yes. I mean, our subjective probability of either Hamilton or Vettel win should be at least 80%. So yes, it can happen, but I don't think we can predict who wins the race. I suspect the morale at Mercedes is very high. The engineers and strategists have all been doing a good job, and Bottas has been a good wingman for Hamilton. We'll see.

PS: The odds are certainly _not_ in favor of Vettel. To win the championship he needs a hyper-dominant car, like he had in 2011 or 2013, and I don't think it is happening.

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Originally Posted by zako85

To recover the ground, Vettel has to win races, almost all of them, and start finishing ahead of Hamilton. Can this happen in Sochi? Yes. I mean, our subjective probability of either Hamilton or Vettel win should be at least 80%. So yes, it can happen, but I don't think we can predict who wins the race. I suspect the morale at Mercedes is very high. The engineers and strategists have all been doing a good job, and Bottas has been a good wingman for Hamilton. We'll see.

PS: The odds are certainly _not_ in favor of Vettel. To win the championship he needs a hyper-dominant car, like he had in 2011 or 2013, and I don't think it is happening.

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I think Vettel has the car to win the championship. The Ferrari is the fastest car on the grid. Vettel has been making too many mistakes and it has cost him a 30 points deficit. The question is not if he has the car, the question is, can he beat Hamilton in a Mercedes which is marginally slower than the faster Ferrari? We have had lots of discussions about this in the past. Now is the moment of truth. He has six races left, if he can focus and be disciplined and do what he does best which is drive the Ferrari fast, maybe. If that would be enough to beat Hamilton, we would see.

But one thing is very clear, Hamilton is the best driver of this generation. Regardless of what most might say of Alonso. I would say the greatest driver of this generation if he wins the 2018 title at Abu Dhabi.

As Vettel makes error after error this season (some forced, but many unforced), I have to wonder if Alonso doesn't have it in his head... "that could be me in that Ferrari taking Hamilton to task - and I wouldn't choke!"

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Originally Posted by Jag_Warrior

As Vettel makes error after error this season (some forced, but many unforced), I have to wonder if Alonso doesn't have it in his head... "that could be me in that Ferrari taking Hamilton to task - and I wouldn't choke!"

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I have to admit, Alonso in that Ferrari may have produced an epic battle. But l think Hamilton would still be ahead because some of the errors were team errors. That said, probably not 30 points ahead.

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Originally Posted by Nitrodaze

I have to admit, Alonso in that Ferrari may have produced an epic battle. But l think Hamilton would still be ahead because some of the errors were team errors. That said, probably not 30 points ahead.

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Just the retirement from the German GP would have meant +25 points for Vettel and -7 for Hamilton, so Vettel would now be 8 points behind instead of 40. Second place in the Italian GP instead of 4th (and that's assuming Hamilton would have still won) would have trimmed that difference to 2 points, which is effectively a tie since the difference between first and seconds is 7 points. And these are just the two most recent blunders.

Still, this is playing the what-if game and we know how dangerous that is. Admittedly, consistency is Alonso's game, but for a start, we don't know how fast he'd be in that Ferrari and there are many things in races happening outside his control. By instance, maybe not crashing out in Germany would have caused Vettel's engine to die a few laps later, which would also have meant a DNF and possibly a penalty for the next race.

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Originally Posted by N4D13

Just the retirement from the German GP would have meant +25 points for Vettel and -7 for Hamilton, so Vettel would now be 8 points behind instead of 40. Second place in the Italian GP instead of 4th (and that's assuming Hamilton would have still won) would have trimmed that difference to 2 points, which is effectively a tie since the difference between first and seconds is 7 points. And these are just the two most recent blunders.

Still, this is playing the what-if game and we know how dangerous that is. Admittedly, consistency is Alonso's game, but for a start, we don't know how fast he'd be in that Ferrari and there are many things in races happening outside his control. By instance, maybe not crashing out in Germany would have caused Vettel's engine to die a few laps later, which would also have meant a DNF and possibly a penalty for the next race.

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Quite true, hindsight is a wonderful thing as we say in England. The German GP incident was down solely to Vettel, nothing to do with the car. That was the single most costly mistake that Vettel has done. This season has been full of unexpected occurences, hence we cannot yet rule out Ferrari and Vettel. But both team and driver are at a most critical point in their championship hopes of winning both or one of the championships. A situation that demands excellence, flawless operation during the next six race weekends. You could say that the next six races is a competition of excellence between the two main contenders for the championship.

The championships can be lost or won by the slightest of error in the next six race. Mercedes and Hamilton have to be flawless to ensure they protect their lead. Ferrari being the chaser must also be 110% flawless but also ensure they get the most out of their fast car at each of the next six races. To be honest, Vettel has to win the rest of the six races to win the drivers championship comfortably. Hamilton only need to maybe win one more and finish second for the rest of the races to be the 2018 world champion and the greatest F1 driver of this hybrid generation.

On Alonso, l think Alonso may have made less mistakes and may most likely get the most out of this fast Ferrari. If we cast our eyes back to the beginning of the season and put Alonso in the car from then, l think he probably may be leading the drivers championship at this point, if not, closely matching the Mercedes. Being the predetorial driver that he is, he may have exploited the slight advantage that Ferrari has better than Vettel has done. Would Alonso have been as fast as Vettel to put the car on pole as often as Vettel has done, is probably questionable. From a Racecraft perspective, this is unquestionable that Alonso would have found a way to be there or thereabout.

That said, l am not sure Alonso would beat Hamilton over a season in the form that Hamilton is showing at the moment. However, it would be close enough to put immense pressure on Hamilton to be flawless up to the very last race.

Good points about not really knowing how fast Alonso would be in the Ferrari. I'm just going on the assumption that he'd be at least as fast as (probably faster than) Kimi.

C'mon guys? Alonso would be sufficiently fast to have to be leading the championship right now. All of you know it.