My guess:
If Toyota can pay enough to get through the contract and pay Ogier, then it happens. No smoke without fire, they are taking.
If that happens, Citroen leave right now.
The only way they can keep Ogier is by committing more budget to R&D and a third car. Seb wants the big wage and the full support. So now discussions are happening to secure the funds. Ogier using a Toyota offer as bait.
Problem is, it couldn't come at a worse time within PSA politically. Bad move, a big risk.
If Citroen leave: Ogier, Evans, Rovanpera, Katsuta at Toyota
If Citroen stay: Same Citroen lineup, but with a third car Ostberg/Camilli, then Evans, Meeke, Rovanpera, Katsuta at Toyota.