2014 F1 season prediction

I know rjbetty used to do this last year. I don't know if he will pop out again, but thought I'd come and share my prediction of the 2014 F1 season.

Well, last time we had significant rule changes - 2009 - I got all predictions horribly wrong. Eager to see, what comes out of this. :p

In my mind played through all the races, including double points at Abu Dhabi, and the final score looks like the following:

1. Lewis Hamilton GBR Mercedes 286
2. Sebastian Vettel GER RBR Renault 275
3. Fernando Alonso ESP Ferrari 266
4. Nico Rosberg GER Mercedes 253
5. Kimi Räikkönen FIN Ferrari 210
6. Daniel Ricciardo AUS RBR Renault 137
7. Jenson Button GBR McLaren Mercedes 120
8. Nico Hülkenberg GER Force India Mercedes 101
9. Romain Grosjean FRA Lotus Renault 70
10. Kevin Magnussen* DEN McLaren Mercedes 67
11. Sergio Pérez MEX Force India Mercedes 63
12. Pastor Maldonado VEN Lotus Renault 45
13. Valtteri Bottas FIN Williams Mercedes 33
14. Felipe Massa BRA Williams Mercedes 28
15. Adrian Sutil GER Sauber Ferrari 25
16. Esteban Gutiérrez MEX Sauber Ferrari 20
17. Jean-Èric Vergne FRA STR Renault 12
18. Daniil Kvyat* RUS STR Renault 8
19. Jules Bianchi FRA Marussia Ferrari 1
20. Max Chilton GBR Marussia Ferrari 0
21. Kamui Kobayashi JPN Caterham Renault 0
22. Marcus Ericsson* SWE Caterham Renault 0

1. Mercedes (M) 539
2. Ferrari (F) 476
3. Red Bull (R) 412
4. McLaren (M) 187
5. Force India (M) 164
6. Lotus (R) 115
7. Williams (M) 61
8. Sauber (F) 45
9. STR (R) 20
10. Marussia (F) 1


Vettel had a storming end to the season again, including winning the double points in Abu Dhabi, but this time it wasn't quite enough. Four drivers were within a shot of a WDC before the title decider, which had the maximum of 50 points on offer.

So, waiting for your predictions before the winter testing begins. :D

I aint going to add the points!

1. Vettel
2. Hamilton
3. Alonso
4. Raikkonen
5. Rosberg
6. Ricciardo
7. Button
8. Hulkenberg
9. Perez
10. Magnussen
11. Grosjean
12. Sutil
13. Maldonado (his own prediction)
14. Vergne
15. Massa
16. Bottas
17. Guiterez
18. Kvyat
19. Kobayashi
20. vd Garde
21. Bianchi
22. Chilton

1. Mercedes
2. RedBull
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
5. Force India
6. Lotus
7. Sauber
8. Williams
9. STR
10. Caterham
11. Marussia

Seems like a fools errand, but since I am said fool....

1. Alonso (Ferrari will finally provide him a worthy car, instead of a big red dog)
2. Hamilton
3. Vettel
4. Rosberg
5. Kimi
6. Grosjean
7.Ricciardo
8. Button
9. Hulkenberg
10. Magnussen
11. Perez
12. Sutil
13. Maldonado
14. Massa
15. Vergne
16. Bottas
17. Guitierez
18. Caterham 1 (driver TBA)
19. Kvyatt
20. Bianchi
21. Caterham 2
22. Chilton


1. Mercedes (although with no Ross Brawn I a doubtful this will occur)
2. Ferrari
3. RBR
4. McLaren
5. Renault
6.Force India
7. Sauber
8. Williams
9. STR
10. Caterham
11. Marussia

I got my predictions last year quite accurate but with this seasons rule changes its more difficult.

1. Sebastian Vettel 287
2. Lewis Hamilton 263
3. Fernando Alonso 255
4. Kimi Raikkonen 211
5. Nico Rosberg 196
6. Jenson Button 174
7. Daniel Ricciardo 168
8. Romain Grosjean 156
9. Nico Hulkenbberg 77
10. Magnussen 75
11. Pastor Maldonado 68
12. Sergio Perez 51
13. Felipe Massa 42
14. JE Vergne 36
15. Adrian Sutil 26
16. Valterri Bottas 21
17. Esteban Gutierrez 17
18. Kyvatt 15
19. Jules Bianchi 1
20. Kobayashi 0
21. VD Garde 0
22. Max Chilton 0

1. Ferrari 466
2. Mercedes 459
3. Red Bull 455
4. McLaren 249
5. Lotus 224
6. Force India 128
7. Williams 63
8. Toro Rosso 51
9. Sauber 43
10. Marussia 1
11. Caterham 0

That's my workings. I really am not sure though. Cant wait to find out.

My prediction????????-PAIN
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJnKm6ftPu0 :p
Actually I really don't have a good feel for how it is going to end up. It will probably be close between Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari.
Most people are saying that the Mercedes lump in the works car has an advantage. I guess we will see. If so I predict "The Boss" for the WDC.
Let us not discount Red Bull and all their recourses, as well as Seb behind the wheel.

Ferrari may just be up to the task, and if they follow recent form (which there is no reason to expect they will), they may have an advantage in reliability. Gearboxes have to last 6 races this season.
But all in all this is pure speculation.

Come on practice :cool:

Thanks for the thoughts.:)

I find interesting though that despite all the regulation changes our predictions are not too dissimilar, in fact differing only in details. We have the same selected group of drivers going for the championship, certainly the same three 'factory' teams at the top. We have McLaren having a marginally better season and Lotus dropping back at least a little. Force India is expected to have the best chance of doing anything among traditional midfield teams. Marussia and Caterham still at the bottom. Let's see, who or what can truly shock us.:D

The balance of power between Mercedes v Ferrari v RBR will be fascinating to see. Having played through the whole season, I had the following scenario.
- Mercedes getting the best start of all. Despite leading the championship all season they are not quite able to fully capitalize on their advantage though, a bit like Red Bull in 2010, so rivals run them close until the end. Hamilton edges Rosberg, but there are weekends, where Hamilton struggles and Rosberg capitalizes.
- Ferrari getting a great run mid-season, Alonso almost catching WDC lead. But like in many seasons, they struggle to develop the car in the end with windtunnel issues and drop back. Räikkönen has a few weekends, where he outshines Alonso, but most of the time Alonso finishes ahead.
- Red Bull getting a below-par start like they have done in the past + reliability issues with Renault package. I had Vettel only 5th in the WDC behind Mercedes and Ferrari drivers after Monza. They are strong though and can never be underestimated. They came to top form in the final phase again.

- I got Lotus as one, who gets away slowly with new regs, compounded by financial issues. A bit like BAR was nowhere in early 2005 after getting regular podiums in 2004. In the end of the season Lotus recovers somewhat, like the other cash-strapped Sauber did in 2013.

I think early season can bring us a few fascinating individual race results. The only (usual) midfield runner I predicted to get podium finishes, was Force India, but we might get more than that, like we did in 2012. Bottas? Sauber or Toro Rosso in the wet?

Nice thread Jens, and nice to see the thoughts of everyone. Now here are some of mine.

I have a brand new keyboard now, so can actually type, yet for some reason many keys do not work. But just now I have gained the use of the spacebar (phew)!
Bear in mind I don't have way to much time on my hands in 2014 as I did early last year. :)

I actually think this season may be easier to predict than 2013, where I didn't have a clue really (see my FGP).

Thoughts about how I'm making my predictions
I have now been following F1 since 1997; this will be my... 18th season(!) This does not include 2008 and most of 2009 when I was doing something different in life altogether, and 2007 where I mostly only checked results online. But this means I now have a fair bit of experience in judging things. I certainly learned quite a bit from last year.

One thing is that it seems many insiders often don't seem to have that much a better idea than we do. 12 months ago, Sergio Perez predicted Sauber would win races. He also predicted he would be champion... Button said the new McLaren was the best one ever. Williams also felt they would make an improvement.

But there are people who know what they're talking about, and I think it's maybe learning which people's opinions to give more weight to and who's to take with a pinch of salt.

Gary Anderson seems to be a very smart guy. He was the one who, having watched the 2013 cars testing, called out the Red Bull as having "10% more downforce". He also insisted to watch out for Mercedes when I didn't have much hopes for them.

I am also very much taking note of James Allison, who said that the "works" cars should have a huge advantage in 2014 and big gaps will open out. He also rightly said the 2012 Lotus (Renault) would be like their 2005 car. Christian Horner also said half the field could retire in Melbourne. I am going to watch out for these.

I find that Gerhard Berger seems to call things very well too. He recently gave his views on the sport and some drivers. Some of it may seem controversial, but if I am fair and impartial and as objective as possible, I think he has pretty much hit the nail on the head. I remember this time 12 years ago when McLaren were looking good to challenge Ferrari and the field seemed to be closing, and Jordan also looked pretty strong, Berger insisted no, there would be 3 big teams only, and the others wouldn't get close, not even close. As it happened, he was exactly right, against all my feelings.



2014 in general
People generally seem to be thinking this season will be closer than 2013. I am sorry to disappoint, but experience tells me that the gas throughout the field should be bigger than ever. It could surpass even 2002.

I believe as in that season, this one will be about a big 3. Most of us are in agreement that this will be Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari. I put them in that order.

I do however, think things could actually be very close early on. This reminds me very much of the 2011 WRC, when major new regulations saw totally new cars. This meant that for the first rally in Sweden, all works teams and privateers had the same spec car, as there were no older versions to hand down to privateers. This meant that Mads Ostberg shocked everyone by leading much of the rally and only losing to works Ford driver Mikko Hirvonen by 7sec. Also, privateer Per-Gunnar Andersson showed winning pace by messed up.

What an exciting new era that was - everyone had a chance. Except... The flip side of the new cars was that they had masses of room for development as the works teams learned and got used to them. This meant that actually the gap between works and independents got bigger than ever as the works teams made big strides ahead, but the privateers were all still left with the basic spec versions, and this meant a huge gap. And it happened scarily quickly too, by round 3 or so. It turned into even more of a 4 horse race between the works Ford and Citroen drivers, with only Solberg able to keep up.

I fear that this is what 2014 will be like. Pretty close early on, but then Renault (read Red Bull), Mercedes and Ferrari will start to get a grip on their engines and develop well ahead, adapting the units much more to their own car's liking.

There's no guarantee that customer teams will get any updates of the latest specs. This means they could all be left completely behind. I think James Allison will be right.

As for unreliability, I am relishing a greater taste of this in 2014. Sadly I don't think it will be like old times as people are saying - certainly not that bloodbath someone said recently. I think the increase in unreliability will be much less dramatic than predicted - more like 2010 levels, though I think it could maybe be like 2006, when the V8s debuted. Christian Horner recently feared that half the field could retire in Melbourne. But the way he said it was suggesting this was bad and disastrous. This made me realise how used and indoctrinated we have become to supereliability. Does he not realise that before 2003, we regularly had more retirements than that, sometimes much more. Unreliability = unpredictability, a commodity which the greatest seasons invariably have a strong dose of, so any increase will be welcome.

Red Bull - Renault
I believe the hopes that Red Bull will be toppled by Mercedes have at least some wishful thinking involved, sadly. It's true that a new season can make all the difference, but Red Bull are now the best drilled team. I say do not be fooled into thinking they will be anywhere other than right up there. I would say at worst, they will be a smidgen off Mercedes.

I think they are again underplaying their chances as they do. Remember, they have been working on 2014 for pretty much longer than anyone else. They are no fools. They will be working closely with Renault, and understand headline power figures are not everything. The long game is more important, and Renault have tended to do very well on fuel consumption and driveability. I really don't think it's just going to be all about engines like a lot of people say; I merely think they will just be more of a factor, but things will be much the same. I don't set that much store by the banning of exhaust blowing - I'm sure Adrian Newey will just do a better job of the new exhausts than most.

Even if Renault are down on power, and even if their engine is not the overall best, I still see Red Bull having the best, or just about the best overall package.

As for the drivers, surely Vettel can not run away with it again by as big a margin. Despite what people say about Mercedes, I am going to install Vettel as the favourite. He could fairly dominate again, but I just cannot see how he can pull out even more of a gap. I'm thinking I'm sure Mercedes will be closer and Seb will be made to sing to sing for his supper this time round, even if it turns out to be only slightly more than in '13.

Daniel Ricciardo is of course a big unknown. Frankly, he hasn't been able to put any major points on the board, in the way that Alonso and Vettel did for the same team (Toro Rosso was formerly Minardi, remember). This must be a concern, and even if Vettel were to take a 5th crown, the WCC seems less certain, and Mercedes, with two strong drivers seem to have more of a chance here. Having said that, lots of Dan's lack of points were down to the team and car. Now he steps up to a top car and a top team with better strategy, he should achieve more potential. Winning a maiden race is not a certainty though, as even a still pretty strong Mark Webber was unable to do so last year remember - though only cos he was cheated out of that and had strange problems every time he was in contention. He won't be a disaster, but the jury is well and truly still out.

Mercedes
Big things are expected of the former BAR team this year. They have long been built up as the favourites, and we have been hearing things like their engine having a 100bhp advantage. There is a lot of hype going on here.

But my instinct tells me that though Mercedes will duly enjoy their best season yet, and seem set to at least consolidate their standing as the 2nd best team, there is still more hype than substance. I don't see them utterly dominating and Red Bull struggling. But they certainly have their best chance ever of major success.

Much of this depends on which Lewis Hamilton we are getting for 2014. I am a huge fan of Lewis - his 2007 is just about the most impressive thing I've ever seen - but I am now going to say some strong things: I agree with Gerhard Berger's recent assertations, and the time has come for me to accept that Lewis is (currently) not the (overall) best driver in F1 (as he is at the moment) (please take note of the words in brackets - this is not set in stone forever) though fastest is something else...

I will lay it out now frankly, and say that until he gets rid of that woman for good, Lewis will never ever achieve his full potential - which is a shame as I think he is faster and more gifted than Sebastian Vettel. Or Fernando Alonso. And especially Kimi Raikkonen. I fully agree with The Black Knight (or was it Truefan32 - I get them two mixed up you know) who a year ago said Nicole messes Lewis up.

All this means that it could well be Nico Rosberg who is professional enough to take up the fight. If the Mercedes is really as good as some hope, I see him getting the WDC job done this year. He seems a driver who does better in a better car and comes ahead of Lewis more through studious, diligent work and application than outright raw talent I feel. I mean imagine Nico winning in a pig of a car. His wins have all come from the front/been inherited. Lewis is still the one who transcends.

Nico surprised most of us last year with his closeness in pace and performance to Hamilton. This led to some hyperbole and stuff saying he was better than Hamilton. I've tried to be as objective as I can, but still fully believe that Hamilton did marginally the better job.

Vettel will be very hard for either to beat. Daniel Ricciardo however, should be rather easier. Therefore, though the WDC may be out of reach again (by a little or a lot?), the WCC can be a real possibilty.



Ferrari
Another season, another set of hopes for the titles. This is beginning to look like the late 90's all over again. To be blunt, why are things going to be different this time? Do not think that just because the ruies have changed and everyone starts from zero, that this in itself means that Ferrari will suddenly be transformed. There is no real reason to think so. In fact, the team don't seem as good as Red Bull, so if anything, major regulation changes are prime conditions for the scud to lose yet more ground.

This may seem rather downbeat, but I have spent too many years stoking up high hopes during the pre-season only to see them dashed come the racing proper, as cold hard reality hits. Sadly, it seems there is no magic in F1. Alonso and Raikkonen could find themselves consigned to 4th and 5th places this season with not too many podiums.

This is though, pretty much the worse case scenario. Or is it? Are they going to do another 2012? I think not, and even if the worst happens, they should be fairly safe in 3rd in the constructors.

Having said all this, there are reasons to hope. Ferrari have realised that desperate times call for desperate measures(my-spacebar-has-gone-again,I-will-return-later-with-more...)

Ferrari (continued now I got the spacebar back (this keyboard is weird))

Right, as I was saying; desperate times call for desperate measures, and Ferrari have responded by enlisting the help of an old friend: The 2014 Ferrari will enjoy input from none other than Rory Byrne. The last car he was in charge of was the F2004... His previous 3 designs in particular were quite good too. But is this 'comeback' going to be glorious, or reflect his former colleague Schumacher's (very respectable but ultimately not as hoped)? Or will he go down the Patrick Head route by still living in the 80s? I don't think so. Byrne's involvement should be a benefit. This, and the involvement of James Allison (credited with much of Lotus' strong form in recent years), plus seemingly finally having the use of a decent windtunnel, give some hope to close the gap.

Apart from this though, the fact is that Ferrari are still not as cutting edge as Red Bull, if we face facts. Therefore, in the cold light of day, why should we expect Ferrari to beat Red Bull in 2014? I hope they can, and have both drivers running strongly. Even if they don't achieve their aims, it would be so great to see them stirring the pot at least some of the time.

Ferrari are experts in reliability, but it's hard to tell where they are with their powerplant. It's not looking like the best.

The arrival of Kimi Raikkonen has an unknown effect. It will shake things up for better or for worse. I feel it will be both, but more of the latter. There are now too many egos in the team, and this all looks very volatile. If there are any on track issues - team-mate collisions, or getting lost on performance again, this could all come to a head. There definitely seems to be a lot of underlying resentment between top members of the team - and I can't remember any time recently when a team in this sort of situation has secured any titles - that is the simple fact.

Now some eccentric fans are claiming Raikkonen is the best driver in the world and will come in and show Fernando around. This reminds me of when Fisichella joined Renault for 2005 and many people, notably respected journalist Tony Dodgins made bold declarations and predictions for Fisi. My feelings to that at the time were "I don't know where you get your confidence" (in Albert Wesker's voice (some of you may know what that means if you completed RE:CVX))

But Raikkonen is too comfortable in his own skin to be rattled like Fisi was. I think it will be more like the Hamilton/Button partnership at McLaren. I truly believe that if Fernando is himself, he should definitely come out on top.

However, Alonso may not really be himself these days. He has shown weakness, to quote someone else, and I have felt that he is now in decline and we have now seen the best of Fernando, even before anyone mentioned it last year. I personally wonder if the Grosjean incident at Spa 2012 has had an effect on Alonso. He hasn't seemed quite the same since then. And with his bad relationship with the team, he could well be vulnerable and his performance will be affected. Therefore it could very well be like McLaren 2011 where Kimi may actually score more points as Fernando somewhat self-destructs. Button may have scored more points than Lewis in 2011, but there is a difference between this, and being the best driver.

Unfortunately, if this does happen to Fernando, then we will never hear the end of it from Kimi fans. So it's very important that Alonso does himself justice. He doesn't have to beat 2012, but to match or just about match will pretty much guarantee his defeat of Raikkonen. Whatever happens, I just hope that it's representative and the truth is revealed.



Lotus - Renault
Oh dear. As someone said, is Lotus going the way of the original Lotus...? Their financial problems are well known, and their 2014 budget seems almost entirely based on Maldonado's dodgy money. This is bad, but it's still possible for a team to punch above their weight in this situation.

Except that they have suffered a severe brain drain as their best members have left due to the situation. It is this, more than the lack of money, that looks set to send Lotus stumbling to the midfield. The team seem much less prepared than Red Bull, who have been expending a massive diligent effort for 2(?) years. The reality is that when you compare the two teams' preparations, the conclusion is that Lotus should be nowhere near Red Bull.

New regulation changes always seem to bring changes to the form book. Like Jens said, this could be compared to BAR's 2004 to 2005, to illustrate how much a year can change things. Lotus 2013 and BAR 2004 seem pretty similar.

The team is still too good and their drivers too strong to do a Williams 2011/13 I'm sure, but a big step back seems inevitable. My prediction is that they will have similar form to what they had in 2011. It could even be slightly worse.

How this affects Romain Grosjean is yet to be seen. The star has often talked about his hopes of winning his first grand prix. 2014 will be another stern test for him as having tasted life at the front, he may have to accept a step back for now. Hopefully, he will understand and use what could well be years, to keep developing himself, building his character, and prepare for his time to come later in his career. Hopefully he can have a bigger picture view and overcome the inevitable disappointment. Romain's transformation in 2013 shows hope that he does have the mental strength to eventually come through this, and he will be stronger and better for it, able to capitalise when like Button, his time finally comes.

Pastor Maldonado has shown enough for us to know he does have talent, but we know that's not why he has this seat. Any hopes of front running may be dashed as he finds he's not much further up than he was at Williams. Pastor has shown a very different attitude to Grosjean and he could well self-destruct (and take the team down with him thru reckless crashes etc). Few expect him to topple Romain, and rightly so.

Yet there is hope for the Venezuelan hothead. Despite showing signs of being a true sociopath/psychopath (seriously), he has at least shown some capacity to be able to learn. See the second half of 2012, where he did sort of realise he needed to calm down a bit. In all fairness, he did curb himself and if you look objectively and fairly, there wasn't that much he did wrong in terms of crashes etc from then on. It was all in the first half of 2012. This carried over into 2013.

Therefore, Maldonado may not be a totally hopeless case. There is the possible potential for a transformation of sorts if the guy can show some maturity and just concentrate on himself. Unfortunately, it's probably much more likely he will be rattled by Grosjean and get his knickers in a massive twist, causing problems for all.

I expect nothing better than Renault 2007/2011/McLaren 2013 kind of form from Lotus in 2014, and depending on Maldonado and other things, they could have trouble with Force India too.

Grand Prix 2

I've also decided to run a season on Grand Prix 2. I used Grand Prix 4 last year but it is a terrible game with massive glitches, and it also gave the result of Perez as champion and Vettel 8th after a strange season.

I find that GP2 is the most reliable. I've used Steven Young's brilliant GP2Edit32 to edit the game for 2014, and used a 2013 mod from grandprix2.de which I updated for 2014. I have been careful to give realistic qualifying and race values for the drivers and engine power and reliability values for the cars.

But there is no DRS, KERS, ERS, or anything else, and pit stops have to be done the traditional way with refuelling and different fuel loads in the race. There is also no Pirelli and qualifying has to be a single 20min session, as I find that best simulates the 3 stage qualifying F1 has now. Kobayashi and van der Garde are the Caterham drivers, and as Grand Prix 2 obliges you to run with 26 cars, HRT-Renault with de la Rosa and Karthikeyan and Scorpion-Ferrari with Razia and Senna join the field.

So here we go

1.Australia - Melbourne
Starting Grid
1.Ricciardo - a great way to start in a top team
2.Vettel
3.Hamilton +0.4
4.Raikkonen +0.4
5.Rosberg +0.5
6.Magnussen +0.7 - what an amazing debut qualifying
7.Alonso +1.0 - struggling a bit
8.Hulkenberg
9.Bottas
10.Vergne
11.Grosjean
12.Kvyat
13.Sutil
14.Maldonado
15.Button - couldn't set a representative time
16.Perez
17.Massa
18.Gutierrez - just 0.7 ahead of the Caterhams

Interesting to see the start and how the race goes. In fact I turned out letting the whole race run while I cleaned my friends dvds to go to the shop!

GO! Dan Ricciardo manages to just hold the lead to turn 1, the Ferrari's get a good start. But what's this? Magnussen has had a stormer. Surely he can't go all the way. He does! He takes the lead from 6th on the grid. And woah! Contact at the back, a Caterham lifts of the ground slightly, spinning round. It's Kobayashi. He spins into Sutil. I made the cars a little stronger as they are in real life these days and both manage to survive though Sutil is dead last. Kobayashi only dropped a few places.

So lap 1, Magnussen leads but Ricciardo lines him up into turn 1 and is through. Later in the lap Vettel does the same and sets about closing the 1.4sec gap to his team-mate. The Ferrari's got into 4th and 5th at the start with the Mercedes cars behind. After a few laps, one Mercedes get's through and eventually both lead the Ferraris, but the 4 run in close formation through the first 15 laps. Raikkonen retakes 4th from Rosberg.

There is the strange sight of a retirement on lap 7 - Sergio Perez in the Force India from 17th. Button has had a terrible start as are the Lotuses. Grosjean is the highest of the 3 in 15th. The Toro Rosso's of Vergne and impressively, Kvyat are running in the top 10.

Magnussen holds 3rd for a while, but once Hamilton get's through, the closely following Ferraris and Rosberg very quickly follow suit devoting the Dane to 7th. His pace is dropping off but he has a big lead from Hulkenberg, who retires, and the Toro Rossos. The 2nd retirement is Kvyat, from the top 10. Then Rosberg is out too - possibly a major title contender gone already.

Through the early laps Ricciardo leads and the Aussie crowd hope for home success, but Vettel is the fastest and catching. Of the group behind, the Mercedes and Ferraris are only a few tenths to equal to Ricciardo, but only Lewis is really matching him. Vettel takes the lead around lap 7 into turn 1, with the others 6+sec behind. But sensationally, Ricciardo retakes the lead into turn 2! I can imagine the crowd cheering. Next time round though, the inevitable happens and Vettel hangs Ricciardo out to dry into turn 1 costing him momentum and protecting himself. He now pulls out a lead.

Around lap 12-15 and going through backmarkers, a car has spun at turn 13: amazingly it's Vettel!! He has spun and cars pass him left and right but he recovers quickly to 5th. Ricciardo is still generally 2nd fastest and has a gap to Lewis and co. Could it be? Also, at the same time, Magnussen has spun from a clear 7th behind the top 3 teams into turn 8 and drops right down the field.

Raikkonen pits relatively early, and OMGosh, Vettel is off again, breaking his wing this time. This is a very Schumacher 2003 start to the season and already doesn't seem as perfect as 2013. This compromises his strategy and he exits 14th behind Kobayashi, a minute down. van der Garde ran 13th in the opening laps and consistently in the top 15 as others retired. Maldonado pits with mechanical issues. Grosjean retires from the top 10.

Vergne is quietly impressing in 5th, around 1.3sec per lap off his old team-mate Ricciardo. The group behind, led by Bottas aren't getting within 2.0sec really.

Around lap 30 Ricciardo pits from the lead. Lewis takes the lead, pitting a couple of laps later having consistently stayed just over 2sec off Ricciardo. He exits behind, and Raikkonen now takes 2nd on a two-stopper. Alonso is now about 12sec off Ricciardo. Vettel meanwhile catches Vergne in 5th but both have to pit again.

Later in the race, Sutil is making his way up the field. van der Garde is impressively close to the points and Kobayashi is about 4.5sec behind throughout the race. The Caterham is hanging onto Gutierrez through merit and the gap stays around 1sec.

Around lap 40, Lewis takes the lead of Ricciardo. The Australian's pace then drops a bit as he seems to let his head drop a bit now. Raikkonen is also through but Kimi pits again while the others don't have to stop. Vettel also stops and is now mega fast setting a fastest lap almost 0.6sec faster than his previous best. But with just over 15 laps left he is 32sec behind Raikkonen, who himself is 30sec off the lead in 4th, and out of contention for a podium, unless any more retirements come.

Further back, van der Garde takes Gutierrez fair and square, but Maldonado is less than 20sec behind. At the same time as this Sutil makes his way up through his team-mate and the Caterhams, and gives chase to Massa, who VDG is going quicker than.

There are to be no more and in the end Hamilton takes the chequered flag 12sec ahead of Ricciardo, who despite the defeat still did a great job. Alonso took a great 3rd a further 10sec back after his bad qualifying. Kimi was over 10sec back in 4th and Vettel a way back in 5th. Vergne was easily best of the rest consolidating an easy 6th. Button eventually got by Bottas having raced him for a long time, while Magnussen eventually recovered to 9th. Sutil got by Massa for the final point before the end. Not bad considering he was last behind even the HRTs and Scorpions after lap 1.

Australia Result
1.Hamilton
2.Ricciardo
3.Alonso
4.Raikkonen
5.Vettel
6.Vergne
7.Button
8.Bottas
9.Magnussen
10.Sutil
11.Massa
12.Maldonado
13.van der Garde
14.Gutierrez
15.Kobayashi
16.Bianchi
17.Chilton

I won't go into much detail for the rest. The first race is always the most interesting. :)



As for the rest of my 2014 F1 preview:

McLaren-Mercedes
The good news is that McLaren do remain a top organisation and surely they won't suffer as badly this year. 2014 may be to 2013 as 2008 was to 2007 for Renault, an improvement.

Remember that McLaren had marginally the fastest car, in qualifying trim anyway, as recently as 2012. They aren't going to sink right down. Ron Dennis retaking CEO position should help. Though he's not as likeable as Martin Whitmarsh, I guess he can be tougher maybe and do the tough stuff that may be needed. So I predict that McLaren will pull ahead of the midfield, but at the same time the 3 works teams will have a huge advantage, so McLaren may take the position Mercedes had in 2011 of being in a no-mans land as 4th best, especially since Lotus look set to drop back a bit. I think pace-wise they may only therefore, only make a smal improvement, Jenson being 1.0-1.2sec or so off the pace, maybe 1.5 if the gaps are really big through the field.

Hopefully the fact this season shouldn't be as bad as last year should inspire Jenson a bit more, as should his new team-mate Kevin Magnussen who's flair should push JB further. But Jenson can sense his job may be in danger for 2015. How will this affect him?

Wins? Ohhh I'm not sure. How about podiums this time. That seems realistic. I wouldn't expect more than 2 wins max though even in the best case scenario. But overall a decent enough recovery ready for 2015.

I don't know what to expect from Kevin Magnussen. He does seem like he should deliver a lot more than his dad. Is Jan really his dad? Has that much time gone since 1998? Am I now old? It's his potential that McLaren are interested in and he seems to be applying himself well. I can't really see him matching Jenson for speed first year round, but then Perez outqualified him 10-9... I think Magnussen could actually finish 8th in the WDC. I don't think he will be totally inconsistent and down the pack.

Grand Prix 2

Round 2: Malaysia
Starting Grid
1.Vettel
2.Hamilton
3.Ricciardo
4.Rosberg
5.Button
6.Raikkonen
7.Alonso
8.Maldonado
9.Hulkenberg
10.Bottas
11.Magnussen
12.Perez
13.Grosjean
14.Vergne
15.Massa
16.Sutil
17.Kvyat
18.Bianchi
19.Chilton
20.Kobayashi
21.van der Garde
22.Gutierrez

An uneventful start, though the Mercedes take the lead. Bottas and Kvyat are the first retirements, followed by Maldonado and Perez again. Rosberg is delayed down the back, while Hamilton gets a lurid spin out of turn 2 in backmarkers, colliding with Vettel. Lewis is out, but Vettel pits for a new wing. This leaves Ricciardo in front.

Vettel is very fast, but retires with a mechanical failure. Hulkenberg goes strongly challenging the Ferraris early on.

van der Garde is doing another sterling job from 21st and later on is beating at least 1 Sauber. Vergne was heavily delayed and not very fast anyway this time.

Ricciardo builds up a huge lead on the Ferraris but Rosberg eventually looks good to catch up for 2nd but retires for the second race in a row. This leaves Button on course for a fine return to 2nd and the podium, but he crashes with a few laps left in what turns out to be a race of attrition. He is not out though and despite losing much time, pits and comes out behind Hulkenberg who he massively catches and overtakes.

Before this, with little more than 10 laps to go, van der Garde is catching Sutil fast, and easily ahead of Gutierrez. Bianchi has already retired having run out of position in 15th early on. As others retire, van der Garde is on course to inherit 10th, but he himself suffers a heartbreaking oil leak before he gets into that position.

Gutierrez then takes the 10th place that van der Garde was about to come into, only to retire himself.

This leaves only 12 finishers as Ricciardo scores a hugely popular victory, miles ahead of Raikkonen and Alonso, with Button and Hulkenberg not far behind. Grosjean and Magnussen are a fairly distant 6th and 7th, with Massa putting in a slow but steady drive for 8th. Sutil is even further back and a much delayed Vergne takes 10th, absolutely nowhere. This means Kobayashi and Chilton take 11th and 12th.



Round 3: Bahrain
Starting Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Alonso
3.Vettel
4.Rosberg
5.Ricciardo
6.Raikkonen
7.Magnussen
8.Perez
9.Grosjean
10.Hulkenberg
11.Bottas
12.Sutil
13.Button
14.Maldonado
15.Massa
16.Gutierrez
17.Vergne
18.Kvyat

Hulkenberg stars early on but retires, as does his team-mate and the Toro Rossos. Rosberg is caught in an incident and needs to replace his front wing, ruining his race again. On the exact same lap, Hamilton inexplicably gets caught in backmarkers again, puts a wheel off track and his wheel ends up being ripped off. He was putting in a real challenge for victory and was leading. This lets Vettel through.

Vettel is on a 2 stop and come out behind Alonso, but soon overtakes him and builds up a big lead in the remaining laps to win, over 20sec. Ricciardo is very close behind and takes another good result in 3rd. Raikkonen manages to hold off the recovering Rosberg for 4th. Magnussen scores a good 6th ahead of Button, while Bottas and the closely matched Lotuses led by Grosjean round out the points. There are 14 finishers.



Round 4: China
Ricciardo just edges Vettel for pole at the death. Mercedes take the 2nd row just a little slower, Rosberg ahead. Ferraris take row 3, but Magnussen stars again in 7th. Gutierrez outqualifies Sutil in 14th and Vergne and Kvyat are 17th and 19th, van der Garde impressively splitting them.

Oddly, Ricciardo takes a close victory from Vettel, Hamilton and Rosberg. The Ferraris stay the same. Button, Perez, Massa and Grosjean fill out the points. There are 6 retirements.



Round 5: Spain
Top 6 on grid filled by usual suspects, though Raikkonen 3rd.

Vettel utterly dominates this one I'm afraid, by just over a minute (sigh). It's very close behind as 2nd-5th are covered by 5sec. Hamilton finishes 1sec ahead of Rosberg, the gap having stayed that way for much of the race.

Raikkonen and Ricciardo had been having a tense fight, with a small gap, then one taking the other. In the end Raikkonen just made it to another 4th. There were 6 retirements: Button, Grosjean, Perez, Massa, Kvyat (has retired from every race) and Kobayashi, who retired after a stupid collision with Raikkonen at turn 2 while he was fighting Ricciardo near the end.



Round 6: Monaco
Starting Grid
You know how at Monaco, sometimes you just can't get a time in.

1.Hamilton
2.Ricciardo+0.2
3.Rosberg+0.5
4.Raikkonen+0.9
5.Alonso+1.3 - could have gone faster
6.Button+1.7
7.Bottas+1.8
8.Grosjean+1.9
9.Vergne+1.9
10.Sutil+2.1
11.Maldonado+2.1
12.Magnussen+2.3 - could have maybe had 5th
13.Kvyat+2.4
14.Perez+2.8
15.Massa+2.9
16.Gutierrez+3.3
17.van der Garde+4.1
18.Kobayashi+4.5
19.Hulkenberg+4.6
20.Bianchi+6.6
21.Chilton+6.7
23.Vettel+7.9 - behind even Bruno Senna's Scorpion!

Ricciardo takes the lead but reitres on lap 2 - his first of the season! This delays Hamilton and Raikkonen takes his chance and leads the race. Vettel is already challenging van der Garde for 15th at the end of lap 2. Gutierrez was in for a new nose on lap 1 and Kobayashi spun at the chicane on lap 3.

By lap 7, Vettel has already caught up to the top 10 and a train of cars but can't get past Kevin Magnussen.Van der Garde retires from a promising 16th.

Wow, rjbetty. What an elaborate preview of the season.:)

Interesting thoughts. Since it is a prediction, we really cannot argue ( :D ), but we can discuss in general about some things.

Firstly, about predictions in general. I think I have been making pre-season predictions roughly since 2004, occasionally even before, but those I can't remember properly any more. I have done either on a race-by-race basis in an Excel table, or just imagined, thought and written up next year's ranking/pecking order in general.

One thing I have noticed is that some seasons have been easier to predict than others. Of course it is impossible to make a perfect prediction, but in „easier“ cases you can avoid getting too many things wrong. I mean you can roughly anticipate the general state of games, even if details differ. For instance if in 2014 indeed the three „factory“ teams are above others, this season will be among the „easier“ ones.

In my mind 2013 was among the „easier ones“ too. McLaren was wrong, it was difficult to anticipate this, but many other things were quite close to expectation.

Also the period of 2006-2008 was relatively „logical“ to predict. By predicting I mean predictions before winter tests, before we have any markers.

Before 2006 I thought Ferrari and Renault were going to be top2 teams and Mercedes will get its V8 engine wrong. Like they had done in the past with other engines.

Before 2007 thought the title was going to be fought between Räikkönen, Alonso and also Massa. Renault was expected to drop back at least a little. Hamilton was the main spanner in the works not to be foreseen.

Before 2008 Ferrari was the favourite with McLaren expected to get hit at least slightly by 100M $ fine, but if anyone was going to take the fight to Ferrari, it was expected to be Hamilton. BMW Sauber seemed like a potential dark horse after a strong 2007.

Some seasons have a huge spanner in the works that even the experts find difficult to predict. 2005, 2009, 2012 were for me cases in point.

Based on pre-2005 winter tests I thought Schumacher, Räikkönen and Alonso were going to fight for the title. But before winter tests it was hard to see that McLaren and Renault were going to be well above others and Toyota also pretty good, because none of those three teams had been convincing in 2004. I think before winter tests my 2005 order looked like 1. M Schumacher, 2. Räikkönen, 3. Button. Ferrari/Bridgestone losing so much ground after a dominant 2004 was a surprise.

2009 of course. Rjbetty has said that he is trying to learn from insiders, but no-one saw this coming before winter tests certainly. Incredible season.

2012 was difficult to anticipate.
RBR lost a lot after their domination.
Ferrari had a difficult car, but despite that they developed so much Alonso led the WDC clearly in mid-season.
Lotus improved so much that Räikkönen was a remote title contender.
Sauber and Williams had a very fast car not just occasionally, but for most of the season.

It was very hard to foresee such a combination of things, combined with Pirelli tyres that saw 7 different winners in first 7 races.

- - -

One thing I have personally learnt from predictions is that they are often too much based on previous season. New season, new beginning has to be predicted with a new view, but taking into account the current potential (as much as we can see) of each team.

However, predictions are often too similar to previous year, because past year is our guideline and we are not aware of current developments. We do not have a guideline for the future. Let's take 2009 and Red Bull's rise. Before 2009 it was not a convincing argument that RBR should be predicted as a top team, just because they have Newey. You could say - „but RB-s were designed by Newey in 2007-08, yet they were in midfield.“ You did not have a convincing argument to have RBR as a top team, yet you had evidence that RBR was actually a midfield team with Newey on board. So there it goes.

- - -

Some rjbetty's points about 2014.
I agree that reliability is not going to be „dramatic“, even if a little worse. We could indeed have half of the cars retiring, but this would more likely be an exception rather than a rule. Certainly not a disaster like Horner claims. After all, we had only 7 finishers in 2008 Australia! But it wasn't the norm for the season.

I think Vettel could have an advantage over Mercedes' and Ferrari drivers by being a clear lead driver in the team. It could turn out to be quite important if your team-mate almost never finishes ahead of you. It was an advantage for Alonso back in 2010 in a fight against Red Bulls and McLarens.

Red Bull's general "invincibility" will be tested in 2014 though. It is possible that they will have lost a little bit of their former magic with new chassis-engine packages, also the team has lost a member of their "dream team" - Peter Prodromou. McLaren in 2012 proved Red Bull can be outraced (with proper reliability of course) if you get your package right, and this is what Mercedes will be aiming to do in 2014. Red Bull of course won't be weak, they should still be aerodynamically strong and still be pretty good particularly in the final phase of the season. But it will be hard to replicate their 2013 latter half utter dominance with new set of rules.

You are right to be concerned about Ferrari. I don't think Rory Byrne is going to be a big differentiator, because hasn't he been an "advisor" for a few years already? I think the arrival of James Allison could have more effect. But it is never that simple that a talented engineer comes from somewhere and makes a team competitive. The whole organization has to work like a clock-work. It took Newey quite a few years, before the synergy of RBR enabled them to get to the top. I am not convinced about the synergy of Ferrari under the leadership of Domenicali. Ferrari is not going to be absolutely rubbish, they are always there-or-thereabouts and they have a huge budget. But it is the matter of whether they are fighting for "regular podiums" or "regular wins". Basically it looks like the story of 2010-2013. If no-one can get a good and consistent run, Ferrari (Alonso) can stay in title contention (2010/2012). If someone does get a brilliant run (2011/2013) they won't stay.

I am not convinced of „big gaps“ yet. In 2009, despite big changes, cars were quite close to each other. Yet in 2011, after the rules had had some stability, RBR and some other teams had a breakthrough in EBD development and a few teams (with RBR spearheading it) emerged clearly above others. As we remember, in 2011 three teams were above and others didn't get a look in with the exception of Lotus getting two podiums early in the season.

However, in 1998 after rule changes the gaps were indeed significant at least early on. Also in 1994.

We remember back in the day (10-20 and more years ago) works engines had quite a significant advantage over customer ones (i.e 50 hp). The concern is valid that after time works engined cars could emerge above others. But early in the season we could get a few surprising results, especially if one engine company is above others (either generally, or in certain conditions, like wet or twisty Monaco). For instance if Mercedes is genuinely the best engine, McLaren, Force India and/or Williams could genuinely outrace Ferrari and Red Bull. Not regularly, but on some odd occasions.

But Mercedes, Renault and Ferrari are all experienced and big companies in building F1 engines, so it doesn't seem likely there will be a big gap between their powerplants even if there is a small disparity. Certainly when we are talking about „package“ Red Bull could be in contention even if they have engine deficiency. Like Benetton was in contention in 1994 despite underpowered Ford V8 engines.

When we are talking about McLaren, I think they could start out pretty well. Being a podium-challenging team seems likely. But as the season goes on, they are likely to fall back to minor points as they prepare to enter new era with Honda and co-operation with Mercedes loses importance. This gradual decline in performance was reflected in my prediction as well.

Just one more thing for comparison. WDC points in 2010-2013. In some ways not too dissimilar. Incredibly. Four different years, but drivers are consistently scoring around the same region. Are we going to see more of the same? :D

Code:

---

Vettel    256  392  281  397
Alonso    252  257  278  242
Webber    242  258  179  199
Hamilton  240  227  190  189
Räikkönen    -    -  207  183

---

Basically only Vettel has gone up-and-down during those last four years, while everybody else has been scoring pretty consistently in the same region. Button was doing the same till 2013. Hamilton has stayed there despite changing teams. Räikkönen has joined them. Rosberg has obviously improved his points-tally in 2013, roughly swapping scores with Button. Will Ricciardo replicate Webber? Is there a strong argument the scores are going to be massively different? For that to happen someone's car has to be significantly better/worse than what we have seen. That's how Button/Rosberg swapped their scores.

Nice thoughts Jens,

Yes I totally agree that predictions are too much based on the previous season. We often find that things are very new in a new season.

2001 was a case in point. I expected Benetton to have their best season since 1998, even when everyone was saying they were terrible in testing. I also learned with Honda in pre-season 2007 and Jaguar 2002, even BAR 2005 and Toyota 2006 that if the widely held consensus is a team is going to struggle, they probably are. I mean even in 2009 people did predict from testing that McLaren and Renault would suck and Brawn would win early on. So although they say you can't glean much from testing, neither is it true that you can get absolutely no idea either.

In 2012, everyone was very closely matched with many setting competitive times - and that is how 2012 turned out.

Last year, through Red Bull were sandbagging, the view was that Mercedes would do well and McLaren wouldn't. Also Sauber did look ordinary and Williams nothing special. This is how it turned out.


Meanwhile
Monaco Grand Prix 2 (cont'd)
Raikkonen and Hamilton race at the front, and Hamilton gets ahead at the stops, but later on inexplicably crashes out lapping backmarkers again. This leaves Raikkonen and Alonso having their first real head-to-head, and it's for the lead.

Sadly, Raikkonen retires with about 20 laps to go. Other cars drop out, quite a bit of attrition here. This all allows Vettel to take a rather fortunate 3rd. There are 13 finishers though Kobayashi is the only back team finisher in 13th. It's payday for midfielders Vergne and Sutil in 4th and 5th.

1.Alonso - takes Ferrari's first win of the season
2.Rosberg
3.Vettel
4.Vergne
5.Sutil
6.Button
7.Grosjean
8.Hulkenberg - very good from the back of the grid
9.Perez
10.Massa


Round 7: Canada
Rosberg takes a close pole where the top 8 are quite close. Magnussen takes a close 7th, but Jenson surprises with a great 3rd on the grid. Vettel was only 6th having failed to get a clear lap. Alonso eventually jumped from 7th to 5th on the grid with Raikkonen only 8th. Massa and Gutierrez have their highest grid slots of the season so far in 12th and 13th.

In the race Rosberg retires again and it is generally much closer here, but in the end Vettel narrowly beats Ricciardo with Hamilton 3rd. Alonso retires with 3 laps to go.

1.Vettel
2.Ricciardo
3.Hamilton
4.Button
5.Raikkonen
6.Maldonado
7.Perez
8.Gutierrez
9.Vergne
10.Sutil
11.Kvyat - first finish of the season
12.van der Garde
DNF.Alonso
14.Kobayashi
15.Chilton


Round 8 - Austria (so glad to see this back) - I am going to run qualifying now then gotta go.
Hamilton takes a dominant pole from his team-mate, Vettel (who jumped from 5th at the death of quali), Raikkonen, Alonso, Ricciardo and the McLarens.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rjbetty

Nice thoughts Jens,

Yes I totally agree that predictions are too much based on the previous season. We often find that things are very new in a new season.

2001 was a case in point. I expected Benetton to have their best season since 1998, even when everyone was saying they were terrible in testing. I also learned with Honda in pre-season 2007 and Jaguar 2002, even BAR 2005 and Toyota 2006 that if the widely held consensus is a team is going to struggle, they probably are. I mean even in 2009 people did predict from testing that McLaren and Renault would suck and Brawn would win early on. So although they say you can't glean much from testing, neither is it true that you can get absolutely no idea either.

In 2012, everyone was very closely matched with many setting competitive times - and that is how 2012 turned out.

Last year, through Red Bull were sandbagging, the view was that Mercedes would do well and McLaren wouldn't. Also Sauber did look ordinary and Williams nothing special. This is how it turned out.

---

:)
I don't remember myself predicting anything before 2001, other than expecting Schumacher to win the title. And Häkkinen being his closest rival again.
Before 2002 I thought top 3 teams (Ferrari, Williams, McLaren) were above others with McLaren possibly losing a bit ground. But certainly expected Williams to give a good run for Ferrari's money. The new Renault team seemed likely to emerge as fourth on the back of their strong finish to the 2001 season.

I wonder, what could be the thing of 2014, which is hard to predict right now. Almost every season has at least something, even if not at the front of the field, then somewhere else.

Caterham/Marussia regularly fighting for points? 2014 is their big chance, even if neither is a particularly big team by F1 standards. Shockingly getting the car running well in the early season mess?

Anything among STR, Williams, Sauber, Force India? It is hard to see any of them completely dropping out of points into the backmarker bunch (though Williams very nearly did it), so is the flipside that any of them can threaten top teams? Can someone be the "new Lotus" (2012 rise) with new regs? None of them is financially very well off. Though at least Sauber has IMO proved the last couple of years that they have some very clever engineers in the team and are able to design a fast car even on a shoestring budget.

Lotus and McLaren are the ones, who can be relatively tricky to predict at this moment - both in a good and bad way.

And the so-called potential top 3 teams. It is hard to reach a conclusion at this time whether we could either have a close fight for the title (2010/2012) or someone running away with it (2011/2013). At the moment have been going with the 'close' one.

But nevertheless, let's see what does testing bring us.:) Even the early days. Though it is often said the first days don't show anything as teams are only "dialling the cars in", sometimes having an immediate advantage can be vital. Others have to catch up and they may remain doing so.

Grand Prix 2: Round 8 - Austria (cont'd)

The first retirement is Vettel, who amazingly is out due to a driver error! Kobayashi retires, then on lap 17 Lewis is out from a handsome lead - would surely have won. Toward half distance, Gutierrez retires, then interestingly, Ricciardo too! What a terrible race for Red Bull at their home track - in fact, the circuit they own! The only other retirement is Bottas from a good 8th with 3 laps to go. Rosberg was again delayed early on and his race was all about recovery after an extra stop.

All this meant that the Ferraris were clear to score an immensely popular 1-2! Raikkonen and Alonso had tried different strategies with Alonso 2 stopping and Raikkonen once. Alonso stopped from the lead with less than 20 laps to go, and hunted Raikkonen down, but his tyres couldn't last and he settled for 2nd, 13sec down. What a great win for Kimi, and Ferrari's second in 3 races. Rosberg was 6sec behind Alonso in the end. Kevin Magnussen scored a fine 4th, 52sec off Kimi, while it was noticed at the end that 1-stopping Vergne had managed to stay ahead of charging 2-stopping Button. Kvyat had also crept into a strong 10th with Bottas' late exit. He was only 1sec behind Perez in 8th! Massa was only a further 4sec behind. Van der Garde was the highest back team finisher in 14th.

Result:
1.Raikkonen 2.Alonso 3.Rosberg 4.Magnussen 5.Vergne 6.Button 7.Hulkenberg 8.Perez 9.Grosjean 10.Kvyat


Mid-season summary
Points after Round 8 of 16 (only 16 races on GP2)
1.Vettel 118pts
2.Ricciardo 111pts
3.Alonso 109pts
4.Raikkonen 97pts
5.Hamilton 73pts
6.Rosberg 70pts
7.Button 58pts
8.Vergne 39pts
9.Magnussen 29pts
10.Hulkenberg 24pts
11.Grosjean 19pts
12.Perez 16pts
13.Sutil 14pts
14.Maldonado 11pts
15.Bottas 8pts
16.Massa 7pts
17.Gutierrez 4pts
18.Kvyat 1pt

1.Red Bull-Renault 229pts
2.Ferrari 206pts
3.Mercedes 143pts
4.McLaren-Mercedes 87pts
5.Toro Rosso-Renault 40pts
6.Force India-Mercedes 40pts
7.Lotus-Renault 30pts
8.Sauber-Ferrari 18pts
9.Williams-Mercedes 15pts

Ricciardo has had an immensely consistent start to the season despite not being that fast in race trim. His qualifying has at times been top notch however. Things have all gone his way so far and more couldn't have been asked. His only faults were crashing out of the lead at Monaco on lap 1, being defeated by Hamilton in Australia and Raikkonen in Spain. He has done a Frentzen-99-like job but always seems to lose out in a scrap, except for China!

Vettel has definitely been the fastest, especially in races, but uncharacteristic errors in Australia and Austria, plus being t-boned by Hamilton in Malaysia before retiring, and starting 23rd in Monaco show that though the performance remains, the invincibility has disappeared. He is still the title favourite by a large margin though.

That's because Mercedes have been even more unfortunate. It all looked so good after Hamilton won the first race, but so much has gone wrong. Lewis has astonishingly got caught in so many strange backmarker situations. This stopped him winning Malaysia and Monaco, and possibly Bahrain. He DNFed in all 3 instead! Rosberg has been even more unlucky. The opposite of Ricciardo, the cards are falling badly for Mercedes as Nico has had problems nearly every race (despite the decent reliability I gave Mercededs that should should see each driver retire 3, maybe 4 times in the season). This leaves the drivers and team well down.

Lotus have done terribly, Grosjean usually starting just outside the top 10 with a highest grid placing of 9th. Maldonado has been more up and down, starting 7th in Spain and 16th in Austria. Grosjean is the better racer, has suffered more unreliability than Maldonado and beaten him to the flag every time both finished. Romain scored a highest of 6th in Malaysia while Maldonado did score a strong 6th in Canada.

It's been a more decent season for McLaren, with Magnussen qualifying 6th on his debut and 7th four further times. Button also started 5th in Malaysia, 6th in Monaco and 3rd in Canada. Jenson would have taken 2nd at Sepang before going off near the end. He's retired once, in Spain, but everywhere else finished either 4th, 6th or 7th. Magnussen beat Button to 6th in Bahrain and came 4th in Austria.

Force India have done a decent job, usually starting around the top 10. Perez has surprisingly defeated the Hulk 5-3 in qualifying, but much of that is because Hulk lost out badly in qualifying in Monaco and Austria in particular. Nico has been the better racer and recovered from 19th on the grid at Monaco to beat Perez home in 8th. He also defeated Sergio by 30sec in Austria having started 3 places behind. Nico scored a mighty 5th in Sepang while Perez came 7th in Canada.

Sauber have not done well, Sutil only starting in the top 10 once. Qualifying has gone 5-3 in his favour. But Sutil has managed to finish around 10th in the races, though he picked up the pieces to grab 5th in monaco. Gutierrez lost 10th in Malaysia in the closing stages, but capitalised in Canada to come 8th, 2 places ahead of Sutil. He is doing alright, but was embarrassed by van der Garde in the opening two races, alo starting 22nd at Sepang.

Williams have improved and Bottas is definitely getting stuck in with the Force Indias and Lotuses. He has often retired from good positions though, such as 5th at Monaco. Massa has not yet qualified in the top 10, but plays a Bruno Senna 2012 role in claiming useful lower points finishes, or just outside the points.

Toro Rosso have been their usual self, in qualifying anyway. However, similar to Ricciardo, Jean-Eric Vergne has been a revelation in the way he has almost unnoticed quietly racked up a huge sum of points, just by unobtrusively being there. Actually, his race pace has been very good at times. Has shown a great ability to always be there and capitalise. 6th in Australia, 7th in Spain, 4th in Monaco and 5th in Canada are amazing results, with other points finishes in Malaysia and Canada. Daniil Kvyat has yet to outqualify his team-mate but has been very competent. He has suffered terrible unreliability, retiring from the first 6 races, sometimes in good pints-scoring positions. He finally got to the flag in Canada, a close 11th before going one better to open his account in Austria.

The bottom two teams have been their usual poor selves, though Caterham seems generally ahead. Van der Garde in particular has raced extremely well and looked like finishing as high as 9th before his car gave out not far from the end, Luca Badoer Nurburgring 1999 style. Unreliability has enabled them to finish a little higher than usual, but points still elude both teams.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rjbetty

They will be working closely with Renault, and understand headline power figures are not everything. The long game is more important, and Renault have tended to do very well on fuel consumption and driveability. I really don't think it's just going to be all about engines like a lot of people say; I merely think they will just be more of a factor, but things will be much the same.

---

I missed this quote, but I think it is a very valid comment. I believe a technical director or an engine man (was it Ferrari's?) commented on this also recently. That in the end the package matters, not just engine alone. An engine has to fit into a chassis well, and work harmoniously and reliable in the car to make it go very fast around a circuit.

But the argument is very valid that Renault engine could have some important strengths, like fuel consumption. And we know that fuel saving as it has been put, will be absolutely vital this year. In fact, it is considered to be part of drivers' skillset for 2014 in addition to tyre saving skill we have had since 2011 with Pirellis.

My personal hypothesis is that... Mercedes-powered cars go well on faster circuits like Montreal and Monza, where sheer horsepowers count more. And just like in 2010 and 2012, RBR could struggle at Monza, while in 2011/13 they were very competitive there. However, on street circuits, where drivability counts, RBR-Renault package could be the one to beat. A hypothesis. I am also wondering whether Renault-engined cars could have an advantage in the wet, where also drivability is important? Though fuel saving is not so important in the wet. And I must admit I am not aware, which circuits are more "thurstier" for engines and which less.

I think it could possibly vary from track-to-track and circuit-to-circuit, which engineor should I say package is the best. A bit like throughout the years we have often seen with cars/chassis anyway or when we had tyre war in the past. Or even further back, when we had "engine wars". I mean the same Ford V8 engine was pretty handy at twisty circuits, while Ferrari V12 was the one to have at Hockenheim. However, as all the engines are going to be 1.6l V6, the differences in performance are not going to vary as much as the performance between V8 and V12, obviously.

Re: Jens:

You're right Jens, most seasons have had unexpected form, good or bad, from certain teams.

I have been predicting a lot since 2000, even 1999 maybe. I got 2000 spectacularly wrong where I thought Jordan and Jaguar were going to create a big four with Ferrari and McLaren (sigh). BAR were only slightly off my prediction, while Williams surprised everyone by coming 3rd with an engine that turned out to have 800bhp.
I thought Prost were going to be very strong too.

But the biggest surprise was a great pleasure and unexpected: The amazing Orange Arrows. I'll never forget the first time I saw it on ITV's coverage as it sped efficiently through the lush Albert Park overgrowth, then watching them come 12th and 13th in qualifying, having been regularly beaten by Minardi just months ago. They were even stronger in the race, then even more so in Brazil. This is just about my highest F1 highlight ever.

For 2001, I thought Benetton were going to strong with Renault and Jordan would bounce back to not 1999 levels, but something better. The surprise was a bad Benetton, and a great Williams and a very impressive and strong Sauber.

For 2002 the surprises were that the gaps widened. not closed, through the field. Jaguar's poor form and Toyota's good form were unexpected.

For 2003 I didn't expect Renault to be so strong and Alonso to be SO amazing!! Nor Raikkonen to eclipse Coulthard quite so much. Especially not Button to destroy Villeneuve, or Jordan and Minardi to do so badly sadly... :(

For 2004, Ferrari's dominance, BAR doing SO well, Williams being a disaster (we kinda had a clue McLaren might not be good, but nowhere near the catastrophe it was)

2005: So much - Ferrari, Toyota, Red Bull & Coulthard, Sato doing badly, BAR not scoring a legitimate point till halfway through the season. Fisichella doing SO badly against Alonso (sob - I remember how painful that was). I remember doing 2005 a lot on Grand Prix 2 before the season, and everything went wrong for Fisichella and he was far down from Alonso. I was horrified but thought "phew I'm glad there's no way it could possibly happen like that!"...

2006: Massa coming 3rd in the WDC. BMW doing well.

2007: Well actually I initially thought Hamilton might be around 9th overall, but I was now becoming more experienced and realised that actually, this guy might well come 4th overall and be say +0.23sec down on Alonso. I thought that would be very impressive indeed. I had no idea.
Renault doing so badly. I had hoped that Renault would have an advantage and with Kovalainen gaining experience, Fisi having a good chance of the title. Deep down though, I could tell it was just a pipe dream. I saw the pictures of the launch, and just looking at Fisi you just knew he wasn't going to make it. But I didn't think he'd just give up when Kovalainen started coming on, and have such a shocker.

Heidfeld beating Kubica. The other teams being well behind the top 2. Super Aguri. Most of all for 2007 - HONDA


2008: don't know. In retrospect, when I finally allowed myself to look at the 2008 results around September 2009, I was utterly flabbergasted to see that Vettel had come 8th in a Toro Rosso with 35 points, and won a race. Just stupendous. I thought at the time this was more impressive than Hamilton's 2007, but Vettel subsequently being matched by Webber in 2010 gave me more perspective.
Finding out that Fisichella was still in F1.

2009: Finding out that Fisichella was still in F1. Finding out that he almost won Spa. I thought I was seeing things. Bourdais doing so badly. Red Bull doing so well. Toyota doing well. Sauber and Renault not doing well.

2010: Somehow I called this season almost 100% perfect. I have never come close again, before or since.

2011: Ferrari not being equal with Red Bull. Button finishing ahead of Hamilton (BY DEFAULT), Heidfeld being slower than Petrov, Force India not regressing, Williams doing so badly, Maldonado outqualifying Rubens, new teams not improving much.

2012: Where to start. Raikkonen coming 3rd. Michael on pole in Monaco (I think it is at least fairly certain he would have won. Michael was always better in race trim and Nico said the Merc was faster than Webber's struggling Bull on Sunday). Rosberg dominating China. Biggest shock of all - Maldonado's win. The closeness of the field in general. Caterham not scoring a point - I was almost completely certain this time. Vergne being a poor qualifier but better in races than Ricciardo - I predicted the other way round. Maldonado dominating Senna so much. Jenson being so destroyed by Hamilton.

2013: The form of Nico Rosberg and Force India. McLaren doing so badly. van der Garde being closer to Pic than expected. Williams going back to 2011. Ferrari fading so much.

What will 2014 bring?

That's a pretty good overview on a year-by-year basis.:D
Actually so far we have been predicting team performances, but also driver performances surprise at times. For example, Räikkönen's 2008 and Hamilton's 2011 were not predicted. Which driver is going to impress and who is going to struggle unexpectedly in 2014?

It is hard to see Vettel getting beaten by Ricciardo. I don't think Ricciardo is that good and Vettel having such a shocker, though reliability may "equalize" things like it did in 2010. Hamilton and Alonso are more iffy though they are favourites. For Alonso this is a new match-up, for Hamilton it was a bit too close for comfort in 2013 though he came out on top. However, if you have such a marginal advantage, the tables can easily turn if you have a bad patch in form. Both Button (2010) and Massa (2007) were close to their team-mates and capitalized on the advantage next year, when their team leader went off the boil.

Button is his usual self, mostly solid, sometimes struggling with balance. Age isn't on his side any more either, but Magnussen has to be absolutely superb to topple him already this year. Hülkenberg has been more convincing than Pérez in both 2012-2013, so based on that form I see the German ahead. Grosjean is the incumbent in the Lotus team and seems more convincing now.

Between Bottas and Massa it could be a close call. Bottas though is one of my guesses for a "shock" podium this year if Mercedes is really good engine, Williams again improves closer to its 2012 level and ... Bottas in his second full season can put in some great drives like Pérez put in in his second year (2012)! On paper Sutil is favourite over Gutiérrez, but it depends, how much the Mexican improves in his second year and how well Sutil can settle in in the new team, so it could be close too...

So which driver pairing battle can surprise us?

--
Trying to recall some things too...
The main thing before 1999 I remember I was expecting the fresh dominant CART champion Alessandro Zanardi to impress. Obviously nothing came out of this and I was a kid at the time and didn't know a thing.

You have a good point about having difficulty in predicting 2000 midfield. Obviously McLaren and Ferrari seemed like favourites, but behind them it was a hard call. I don't remember if I was expecting anything from the new Williams-BMW package, or the new BAR-Honda. I remember during winter tests it was said on TV that Jordan looked good and I liked it.

As you say, Arrows turned out unbelievably fast at times (Verstappen leading UK qualifying for a moment, then Austria, Hockenheim). But Prost-Peugeot was a huge disappointment with Alesi (who I rated highly at the time) and the new fresh F3000 champion Heidfeld.

Regarding 2001... I think the new Williams-BMW package could have been expected to improve a little, but Montoya dominating already third race in Brazil on merit in dry conditions on brand new Michelin tyres as well was a proper shocker.

Regarding 2002 I am not sure if Jaguar (they had been disappointment in 2000/2001 anyway) or Toyota (in lower midfield most of the time) surprised me, but I think I was pretty disappointed in Jordan-Honda, which had been regular points contender in previous years, but now with Fisichella on board was often pretty low down the pack.

2003 big surprise was to find out that after the Brazilian GP Renault was actually ahead of Ferrari in WCC! What a weird start to the season, though weather largely contributed to it. Never expected Ferrari to get lapped in Hungary, while they looked good enough to lap everyone there in 2002! Also midfield looked surprisingly strong, Webber even qualified into top3 at times.

2004 was also a season hard to predict. 2003 saw new pretenders Montoya and Räikkönen almost beating M.Schumacher. And Michelin tyres emerging as superior to Bridgestone, who was losing clients (also BAR went to Michelin in 2004). Yet it all turned around in 2004. For me personally one of the hardest seasons to predict along with 2005. Behind 2009 obviously, which was hardest of all.

2005-2008 already discussed. Though in 2008 even though teams weren't far off, among drivers there was some disparity, because was expecting Räikkönen and Heidfeld to finish above their team-mates, especially after the ban of TC!

2010 – interesting that you mention it was easy to predict. I think I have got to agree. The main team I underrated, was Ferrari. I thought they'd struggle more and let Vettel and Hamilton to fight it out for the title. Mercedes always seemed likely to drop back on the back of Brawn's financial struggles during their 2009 title campaign.

I was unconvinced of what to expect from Kubica-Renault. Either a few podiums or getting lost in midfield. However, was expecting a lot from Force India after a strong finish to 2009 and having stability without team owner pulling out. Also was curious about the early season potential of BMW Sauber despite pullout, but doubtful about their drivers.
2011 – was certainly expecting Ferrari to fight it out for the title. After all the switch to Pirelli tyres seemed suitable for them... at least in theory!

Wow Rjbetty. I thought you said you had less time on your hands.

That was impressive. You too Jens.

I struggle to recall my predictions from years past.

I do remember like you Rj that I thought Benetton 2001 was going to be a decent car, I also remember the Prost setting a lap record in testing and thus thinking maybe they would be a top 6 team more regularly again, but both returned near the back.

I'm sceptical about the assumption everyone seems to be making that the "works" teams will automatically have an advantage. Because each manufacturer can only homologate a single specification of engine, there will be no engine advantage for the works teams. Even if they manage to subvert the engine freeze and sneak in performance upgrades under the disguise of "reliability," as they have in the past, they will still have to make the same changes on all the customer engines. Certainly the works teams have had the benefit of being able to influence the engine design to better fit with their chassis and aero plans, but that is by no means a conclusive advantage. The customer teams are in a much better position in this respect than Brawn were in 2009. At least they have known the parameters of the engines they need to design around for a long time.

A better assumption I think would be that the well-resourced teams will have an advantage, which would mean a big 4 rather than a big 3.

AndyL, a fair point. I think when James Allison (?) claimed that works teams are going to have a significant advantage, he indeed meant "packaging advantage", not horsepowers or other differences in engines itself. The difference with V8 engines is that everyone got so used to V8's that even despite "reliability upgrades" everyone knew them like the back of their hands. V6 is going to be new, and teams with more in-depth knowledge (i.e factory teams) could have more of an advantage than in previous years.

But I do think that if a so-called private team can come up with an excellent chassis, they will be competitive too and not notably handicapped. Like Lotus was in 2012-13. And I am sceptical about claims that gaps could be big. I think they may be small(ish) as well, depending on the phase of the season. I think ultimately the difference in "gaps" isn't so dependant on whether we have a rule change or not, but more on the quality of the teams itself. By the end of 2013 we had had quite a stable set of rules, yet Red Bull was dominating by a bigger margin than ever before.

The main issue is, which "non-factory" team can actually come up with a top-notch package, because the three main teams we are talking about seem to be more complete teams in general and it's not just about engines - great engineering/design teams, very good drivers, experienced and proven leadership, big budgets so that they can develop efficiently. Competition is close anyway and this is where the "completeness" of a team is important - that you can eek out just a little bit more to rise above most of others and be a genuine frontrunner. McLaren is in a bit of a transition phase and regardless of whether they are "handicapped" by engines, transition phases always have at least some kind of influence - it is a state of re-building.

I think Torro Rosso could make progress this year as their car will probably be more of a rebadged Red Bull than ever now they have the Renault drivetrain too.

Force India - Mercedes
As a team that invariably produces a solid car year in year out, Force India should be in pretty good shape in 2014. From the start, they have always improved every year in some form. Last season, they only went off the boil because the tyres were changed. They had actually designed a very strong car, and unlike other teams had actually taken into account the tyres. Therefore they had earned their advantage and it was very harsh that it should be taken from them. But it was the right thing to do as the steel belted tyres were too unsafe.

If it hadn't been for that change, plus the fact that the team committed many errors, which saw retirements from strong positions and Paul di Resta sent out of Q1 when the car was good not once, but about 4 times, Force India could most certainly have taken 5th in the WDC ahead of McLaren on merit. That would have been a fine achievement and a confirmation of what the team are capable of.

The operational errors were a real concern though, and they cost di Resta in particular many points. Adrian Sutil was a solid returnee, and actually impressed very much by being on it right away, and it was one of the biggest shames of the season to see him tumble out of the lead towards the end of the Australian GP and just get swallowed up by a mass of cars, and almost his team-mate too. Sutil did lose out a lot too early on when the car was great, but overall he fell a little short of di Resta.

It was a shame that he wasn't able to do more to prevent such a fall in Australia, but more so that he in particular went missing after the car changed mid-season. It would have been nice to see more inspirational moments, as well as avoiding his criticism of the car post season. He can consider himself fortunate to have bagged a Sauber drive, as there are more worthy candidates out there. But he did a good job. Maybe Bianchi wouldn't have banked the same points and the team could have lost 6th, who knows.

But now, in Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez who are both entering their fourth seasons, Force India can boast a line-up that could possibly be their strongest ever - and that includes the Jordan days - if you take into account where the drivers are on their development curve, and go by the performance they can actually be expected and ready to deliver for 2014.

Hulkenberg needs no introductions, and like many, I am a fan and he is one of my favourite drivers. Never once enjoying the year-on-year continuity at a team that is so important, he will have no problems settling in, especially as he already knows the team from recently. Taking into account that like Martin Brundle and Jos Verstappen, Hulk has rarely enjoyed continuity and has always had to settle into new teams (just look at Hamilton to see how hard it can be), it makes his performances maybe even more impressive.

I sing Nico's praises along with the many others who do. But interestingly in Gerhard Berger's interview, he said that Hulk was a little overhyped. Now this takes being as objective and stoic as possible, removing feelings, but despite liking Nico very much, I have thought this.

Hulkenberg is a driver who seems to have few weaknesses. He can qualify, he can race, he hoovers up points as well as showing great flair, he has a good attitude through good times and bad, and is generally one of the nicest genuine guys around. But despite all this, there is a nagging doubt that he may be A+ material, like Hamilton, maybe just A.

Hear me out! I'm just being as realistic as possible and being cautious because if it is the case, it will be found out. I have in mind Giancarlo Fisichella. In a lot of ways, Nico reminds me of him, and part of the reason I support Hulkenberg is that I believe he will go on to the be the driver I hoped Fisi would be. They are similar in that even though Fisi wasn't the all-time greatest, both drivers spent FAR too long in midfield teams while lesser drivers enjoyed the plum seats. They are both capable of amazing underdog results. And they are both among the more likeable people around (though Fisi was rattled during his Renault years, and unfortunately this maybe spilt over to an innocent person or two) - but where these two drivers will differ is that Nico will not wilt in the heat at the top; he is too strong and professional for that.

McLaren dumpee Sergio Perez joins to create an all-new line up, which truth be told was maybe a little stale in 2013. I think Perez may actually surprise some people in how close he is to Hulkenberg - in qualifying trim anyway. Do not see him as a failure, he is still a very worthy driver, and depending on how he has taken his rejection, can either be a strong driver, or sink a bit. But I don't think anyone expects him to genuinely outdo Hulkenberg at all.

If it's all able to gel, Force India should be in for a swag of points. The Mercedes is the engine to have, it appears. Maybe talk of regular podiums and even wins should be cast down for a more realistic single podium, or maybe two.



Grand Prix 2 - F1 2014 Simulation (continued)
Round 9: Britain
Row 1: Mercedes, Nico ahead
Row 2: Red Bull, Ricciardo ahead
Row 3: Ferrari, Raikkonen ahead

They finish this way except Vettel takes 3rd. Alonso was on course for 4th but was overhauled by Ricciardo. The Force India's (Hulk ahead) Grosjean and Magnussen complete the points.


Round 10: Germany - Hockenheim
A good one this.
Top 6 qualifying the same as Silverstone, but Hamilton pole and Nico 4th.
GO! Great start from Rosberg to take the lead. Trouble at the back as Massa's car is launched violently over the turn 1 exit kerb, bounding through the gravel and is out. On lap 2, Button breaks his wing and has to pit. On lap 3 Raikkonen spins! Both at the back fighting through. Raikkonen is pretty much the fastest out there today! Vettel is only 5th, then he retires lap 15. But he is still jammy in that this happened on a rare, less competitive day.

Round 10: Germany - Hockenheim (cont'd)
Rosberg eventually retires whie fighting for 2nd with Ricciardo. Magnussen scores his second 4th in three races.

Result: 1.Hamilton 2.Ricciardo 3.Alonso 4.Magnussen 5.Hulkenberg 6.Raikkonen 7.Sutil 8.Bottas 9.Grosjean 10.Maldonado


Round 11: Hungary
Another good one. A close qualifying sees Alonso edge a surprise pole ahead of the Red Bulls, Mercedes (Rosbrg ahead) and Kimi. Force India and Williams take up a poor rows 8 and 9.
Despite wildly different strategies, the top 6 finish 15sec apart! No idea who was going to win. Vettel was dominating but making more stops. Alonso made a stop then had to charge through the field. It wasn't looking good to overtake Mercedes cars on this twisty track. But somehow he eventually made it work. When Vettel pitted, Rosberg on old tyres took a slender lead. 1 sec behind, Vettel and Alonso were side by side through the first 2 turns as Vettel exited the pits! Alonso had to hold on and against the odds managed it. The strategies meant that Rosberg led, Alonso was directly behind but much quicker, and Vettel was directly behind, even much more quicker, all according to freshness of tyres. The three raced in the closing laps, but backmarkers helped each hold the other off. But Alonso got through to the lead with a few laps left. Vettel was all over Rosberg and the 3 crossed the line separated by a few secs, with Hamilton a further second or 2 behind, and Kimi just a little further, then Ricciardo a few more seconds down. Button, Vergne (who was challenging Button yet again), Grosjean and Gutierrez rounded out the points.


Round 12: Belgium
A long laps means not much chance to qualify well, and so while Hamilton and Vettel led the rest by over 1sec, Alonso, Grosjean and Perez started 16th, 17th and 19th. Maldonado made it to 6th.

Surprisingly, Raikkonen retired, but more of a shock was Vettel out! Not many retirements till halfway through when Ricciardo made it another rare Red Bull exit. Alonso spent the race making his way up from 16th. All this left Lewis Hamilton putting in the most astonishing drive of his life to almost lap the entire field, and was less than 10 sec from lapping his team-mate Rosberg in 2nd and Alonso a couple of seconds behind, both close to 2 minutes behind Hamilton!

But what's this? The first major casualties of the new regulations as there is a mass running out of fuel on the last lap. Lewis is out at the bus stop. Others fall by the wayside. It looks like no-one will complete the full laps and the result would simply be taken from the previous lap (so nothing changing) - but then the realisation that if just one person can make it across the line, they can vault from the back and win!

So this Brazil 2003 like race saw 3 drivers in the top 12 manage to cross the line. Sensationally they all jumped to the top 3 as Kevin Magnussen was the first to have enough fuel and claim a shock win, followed by Valtteri Bottas for Williams and Pastor Maldonado in the Lotus. There was no-one else so Hamilton, Rosberg and Alonso still got 4th 5th and 6th. Kobayashi did cross the line too but simply jumped from 13th to 12th as he was lapped. Button, Hulkenberg, Grosjean and Vergne completed the top 10. Remarkably, Jenson has still either finished only 4th 6th or 7th every time he's finished.


Round 13: Italy
Qualifying is close but its the usual 6, with Vettel on pole. Hamilton gets a great start. Light fuel is the way to go and Alonso and Kvyat make hay, the latter running 7th after starting 13th. But what has this guy got to do as he retires early on, again. What's this? Vettel has spun at turn 1?! Yes, it's one of those afternoons. He isn't the first by any means as now championship leader Alonso joins. Both make their way back up, but Vettel retires! Mistakes continue and it's left in the end for Kimi Raikkonen to take an immensely popular win in front of the tifosi ahead of Hamilton, both reviving their title hopes. Ricciardo also missed out and in the end just pipped Gutierrez for 10th at the end.

Valtteri Bottas took an amazing 3rd, his second podium in a row! Felipe Massa took a welcome 6th.

1.Raikkonen
2.Hamilton
3.Bottas
4.Button
5.Hulkenberg
6.Massa
7.Alonso
8.Magnussen
9.Maldonado
10.Ricciardo


Round 14: Japan
Another hard one to qualify for and get a clear lap, resulting in this top 10
1.Hamilton 2.Vettel 3.Raikkonen 4.Ricciardo 5.Button 6.Perez 7.Massa (first top 10 this season) 8.Sutil (second top 10) 9.Bottas 10.Grosjean

Title leader Alonso and contender Rosberg are only 16th and 18th (the second time in three races Alonso's started there)

In the race m Sutil is up to 4th with Raikkonen pressuring Hamilton. Alonso is up to 12th. Alonso is fast but Rosberg is even faster, the engine helping him scythe through traffic. What would have been an eventual 3rd place went bust as he crashed out, not for the first time this season. It's a tense race with Hamilton and Vettel pretty much in a race of their own. Hamilton wins. Kimi loses 3rd with a mistake but recovers 5th. Alonso gets by Ricciardo for the podium.

Result: 1.Hamilton 2.Vettel 3.Alonso 4.Ricciardo 5.Raikkonen 6.Button 7.Bottas 8.Magnussen 9.Massa 10.Sutil

I'm loving this... the real season will seem like an anticlimax after this :D

Its a brilliant effort rjbetty.

How do you run these simulations exactly, not being well up on Grand Prix 2.

By the way I thought you said you were short on time :p This must take hours to work through.

Cant wait to see who wins your championship.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by steveaki13

Its a brilliant effort rjbetty.

How do you run these simulations exactly, not being well up on Grand Prix 2.

By the way I thought you said you were short on time :p This must take hours to work through.

Cant wait to see who wins your championship.

---

I know, I was incredibly busy at the end of the year. Got some time off for now, almost a month so gettin some rest and stuff. I use accelerated time a lot (no way I'm that bothered to do it all in real time :eek: :) and also am doing stuff while it's going on in the background.

I just finished it now. I 'll post an update. :)

I just do a championship season but with no players. It will run with all AI cars. And use GP2EDIT32 to change each drivers and teams performance, reliability, everything. I got it all off grandprix2.de :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rjbetty

Other cars drop out, quite a bit of attrition here.

---

A quick off Topic. I know you're like me rjbetty and loved the old days of attritional races. I used to play a Grand Prix Game based on F1 1997 and racing at Monaco as Eddie Irvine I started 17th and ended up winning as every other car retired. I spent the last 2 laps lapping Monaco on my own. Weird :p

Back on Topic then.

I have given my idea's on Championship standings on Page 1, but time to give my views on F1 2014 line ups now that they are complete.

Red Bull - I see no reason sadly why Newey and team shouldn't build the best car yet again, although this season is the best chance for someone to break the dominance.

Sebastian Vettel- Not much to say, but he has impressed me more and more with each season, and thus if he gets another top car he will be able to win the title again.

Daniel Ricciardo - This is going to be great to see, I mean we all loved moaning at Webber for being a lap dog, but Daniel has got to spend a season learning about being a top driver. I don't think unless Red Bull produce a monster of a car, that Daniel will be supporting Vettel much and will be looking for some podiums and maybe a win. Next season he should move on and push Seb.

Mercedes - I fancy they might produce the car that finally gives them a shot, however if they get it wrong again and they still cant compete for the title I do worry that Mercedes may withdraw.

Lewis Hamilton - I think Lewis will be the team winner by seasons end, but he may get frustrated if the team fade. I predict Lewis will challenge and maybe win the title this year.

Nico Rosberg - I like Nico and he showed last season that he can win races and can match and beat Lewis. However he still has a few too many off days. Days where he runs 5th or 6th race that being 2nd or 3rd.

Ferrari - I cant decide on Ferrari. Year in year out now, they never seem to produce "That" car that will challenge for regular race wins and thus a Championship. This needs to change with two drivers like this.

Fernando Alonso - We all know how good he is, but I fear he may never win another title if the Ferrari is not good this year, because he may get frustrated and leave, but then is there a top seat left for 2015?

Kimi Raikkonen - I like Kimi, he says it like it is and races hard. I think he will annoy Fernando and make this a battle to remember, we have seen these two race against each other all the way through their careers and now side by side its going to be fun.

Lotus - Judging by the car being delayed and some comments by the team boss. I worry that Lotus are going to sink away. And of course the driver line up is weaker than 2013.

Romain Grosjean - I like Romain and he proved me wrong last year as I thought he would be a crash fest again, but he was awesome. The way he raced Red Bull a couple of times towards the end of 2013 was amazing.

Pastor Maldonado - Pass. I have no idea what he will offer. The money must be good, but I think he will get into trouble more this season. Could be exciting though.

McLaren - I hope they come back with a better car and get back to winning races.

Button - If they have a decent car he might win a race or two, but his Championship challenging days are over I fear.

Magnussen - Don't know much about him really. Give him a top car and we might see a Lewis Hamilton style first season, but give him an average car and he could fade into the midfield.

Force India - A team that varies from season to season and from race to race in those seasons. I hope to see them stayed up there, with there two drivers they have a chance of decent results.

Nico Hulkenberg - Still cant believe he didn't get a top drive this season, but if its a half decent car, then he can get a podium or two. I think he is that good,

Sergio Perez - Still cant decide on him. Looked average, then great at Sauber over his seasons there. Then up and down at McLaren again. I don't see him matching Hulkenberg over the season, but could spring the odd decent result.

Sauber - A team that could fade this season. After their late season comeback in 2013, I think they will return to a early 2013 sort of speed and form.

Adrian Sutil - Don't rate him and don't think old Slash deserves his seat really, but he will bring experience and wet weather skills to the team

Gutierrez- Didn't rate him the first two thirds of 2013, but late season he picked up and I hope he can build on that. I would like to see him do well.

Williams - Who knows. 2011 barely score a point then, 2012 win a race and run in points many weekends. Then 2013 and barely scoring a point again.

Felipe Massa - I like Felipe but probably his career is mostly over but nether the less I think he could score some points for the team.

Valterri Bottas - I like this guy and give him a better car and regular points could follow.

Toro Rosso - I never warm to Toro Rosso, but they always seem to improve as the season goes on, this year I don't really know.

JE Vergne - I really like this guy. He seems to have something which could see him stick around for a few years, I would like to think more points will follow.

Kyvat - Don't rate him massively but lets give him a bit of time.

Marussia - I would like to think that the redesign of the cars for 2014, but see them close in and tag onto the back of the field, and maybe score a point.

Bianchi - Remember his first half of 2013 was brilliant. Outraced his back 4 rivals and challenged a couple of other cars ahead, but faded as the team did after being overtaken by Caterham.

Chilton - I like him as a guy, but not really sure he deserves a second season. Spent most of 2013 trailing off at the back. Hope a second season helps him improve.

Caterham - Wayward team with no consistency in driver line ups, but did a decent job to get ahead of Marussia in the latter half of 2013.

Kamui Kobayshi - He is always fun and I fancy a few banzi starts might see him launch ahead of midfield cars at the starts and then get involved for a while, but will more than likely be involved in a few crashes.

Ericcson - Not a stunning record coming into F1, but lets see. I fear he maybe battling Chilton for distant 2nd last.

Oh well there are my thoughts.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by steveaki13

Sauber - A team that could fade this season. After their late season comeback in 2013, I think they will return to a early 2013 sort of speed and form.

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One possible problems for Sauber could be that like Lotus, they have lost also key people. James Key in 2012 and Matt Morris in mid-2013. The general depth of their engineering team seems to be pretty good though, combined with modern infrastructure from BMW days, but in this close midfield competition everything will matter.

so while we're all still emptying our stomach over the dick and bellend noses, FIA and the toad from Suffolk quitely blackmailed the teams into finally accepting the double-points finale. Ghastly cars and a fake fix at the end of it - yeah, that's really a season to look forward to. :hmph:

Can or will F1 ever return to a more realistic motorsport do you think? It saddens me.

With Boullier also leaving Lotus I am suspicious I may even have been too optimistic about predicting Lotus to finish 6th in WCC... :p

Quote:

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Originally Posted by steveaki13

Can or will F1 ever return to a more realistic motorsport do you think? It saddens me.

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Realistic? I think what we are witnessing is the reality of the current world/life anyway, the developments of F1 just reflect this. However, at the moment world doesn't seem to be turning back to its roots, so F1 can't be an exception.

In a few decades we will probably have all-electric F1 anyway with silent cars. I think motorsport is in the process of a fundamental change currently. Environmental and other global issues plus entertainment needs through media force all these changes.

Williams becomes a best of the rest team while Lotus struggles to stay in the mid-pack. Maldonado cries crocodile tears but no one can hear him.

Right, my spacebar's gone again, but here is an update on my season

Grand Prix 2 - Round 15 (of 16 available): USA
Here are the points in the closing stages!

1.Alonso-188pts
2.Hamilton-183pts
3.Vettel-166pts
4.Ricciardo-162pts
5.Raikkonen-158pts
6.Rosberg-123pts
7.Button-90pts
8.Magnussen-75pts
9.Hulkenberg-54pts
10.Bottas-51pts
11.Vergne-44pts
12.Maldonado-29pts
13.Grosjean-25pts
14.Perez-22pts
15.Sutil-21pts
16.Massa-17pts
17.Gutierrez-5pts
18.Kvyat-1pt

This is very close, too close to call. And the best thing is, there was no artificial tampering on my part. I was as realistic as possible, yet this is just the way it has turned out. The top 5 drivers are all in with a very real shout, and Nico Rosberg is still mathematically in it, due to double points. How is it going to turn out?

Ricciardo takes his 3rd pole of the season ahead of Hamilton and Alonso. Vettel is only 4th.

It's not that eventful today, but there are two major surprises: both Ricciardo and Hamilton are out from the front! This has a huge effect as Alonso leads a Ferrari 1-2 with Vettel only 4th, not a great weekend from him.

Result: 1.Alonso 2.Raikkonen 3.Rosberg 4.Vettel 5.Magnussen 6.Vergne 7.Hulkenberg 8.Button 9.Bottas 10.Kvyat


This leaves the points like this, with 50 (ugh) available in the final round: Brazil...

1.Alonso-213pts
2.Hamilton-183pts
3.Vettel-178pts
4.Raikkonen-176pts
5.Ricciardo-162pts
6.Rosberg-138pts
7.Button-94pts
8.Magnussen-85pts
9.Hulkenberg-60pts
10.Bottas-53pts
11.Vergne-52pts
12.Maldonado-29pts
13.Grosjean-25pts
14.Perez-22pts
15.Sutil-21pts
16.Massa-17pts
17.Gutierrez-5pts
18.Kvyat-2pts

Rosberg is now officially out of it, while Ricciardo's unfortunate DNF was very costly as he is now left 51 pts behind...

Tune into the next episode where the champion team and driver will be revealed.

Can I get the next episode on iplayer? :p As I might be out.

Grand Prix 2 2014 Simulation - Season Finale!

Here it is, the big showdown (which was a couple of days ago actually, but I've got the spacebar working again now)

If you are out, don't forget to catch it on BBC iPlayer later.

Round 16: Brazil - Interlagos
So, here we are. 4 drivers left in contention for the title
1.Alonso (Ferrari) - 213pts
2.Hamilton (Mercedes) - 183pts
3.Vettel (Red Bull) - 178pts
4.Raikkonen (Ferrari) - 176pts

Constructors
1.Ferrari - 389pts
2.Red Bull - 340pts
3.Mercedes - 321pts

How is qualifying going to go?

The title contenders take a back seat today as it's Nico Rosberg who blasts to pole ahead of Daniel Ricciardo. Ferrari's take row 2, Alonso ahead. Hamilton is only 5th, but worse for Vettel who is only 11th! Further down, Kvyat makes his first top 10 appearance. Remarkably, this is also the first time he has outqualified Jean-Eric Vergne this season, despite doing pretty well. Massa and Vergne are only 17th and 18th.

GO! Ricciardo takes the lead and holds it for much of the race. It's really between these 2 for the win today. Hamilton and Alonso fight for 3rd. Vettel is strangely subdued today, more so than the previous round. On a high fuel load, it's not really working and he is down in 17th early on. Though his pace on 1-stop fuel is at least equal to the top 2, he is a long way down: He needs o get moving fast if he's to secure this title.

It's not a classic race, and there are 4 retirements: van der Garde, Vergne, Perez, and Button.

Further on, Rosberg is able to take Ricciardo to beat him to a close win. At the end, Alonso is only about 1.5sec behind Ricciardo. He crosses the line 3rd, magnificently winning the title! Hamilton is 4th, Kimi 5th, and Vettel was not far off but could only manage to recover to 6th.

This means Alonso is champion again, ahead of Hamilton, and because it's DOUBLE points, Ricciardo judges edges ahead of Kimi, and both demote Vettel. Rosberg's bumper 50pts brings him close to the 3 in front.

Full Race Result: 1.Rosberg 2.Ricciardo 3.Alonso 4.Hamilton 5.Raikkonen 6.Vettel 7.Magnussen 8.Grosjean 9.Hulkenberg 10.Maldonado 11.Bottas 12.Kvyat 13.Sutil 14.Massa 15.Gutierrez 16.Bianchi 17.Kobayashi 18.Chilton

By the way, Caterham and Marussia didn't score a point again!


Final Championship Standings - Includes Double Points
1.Alonso - 243pts
2.Hamilton - 207pts
3.Ricciardo - 198pts
4.Raikkonen - 196pts
5.Vettel - 194pts
6.Rosberg - 188pts
7.Magnussen - 97pts
8.Button - 94pts
9.Hulkenberg - 64pts
10.Bottas - 53pts
11.Vergne - 52pts
12.Grosjean - 33pts
13.Maldonado - 31pts
14.Perez - 22pts
15.Sutil - 21pts
16.Massa - 17pts
17.Gutierrez - 5pts
18.Kvyat - 2pts
19.Kobayashi - best finish 11th
20.van der Garde - best finish 12th
21.Chilton - best finish 12th
22.Bianchi - best finish 12th

Constructors
1.Ferrari - Ferrari - 439pts
2.Mercedes - Mercedes - 395pts
3.Red Bull - Renault - 392pts
4.McLaren - Mercedes - 191pts
5.Force - India - Mercedes - 84pts
6.Williams - Mercedes - 70pts
7.Lotus - Renault - 64pts
8.Toro Rosso - Renault - 54pts
9.Sauber - Ferrari - 26pts
10.Caterham - Renault
11.Marussia - Ferrari

Quote:

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Originally Posted by steveaki13

Gutierrez- Didn't rate him the first two thirds of 2013, but late season he picked up and I hope he can build on that. I would like to see him do well.

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Oi, he helped me pip you in FGP last year, on our way to a glorious 41st overall. :p

btw, when is FGP 2014 starting, now all the drivers are in?

Whenever Nick "Bernie" Jones has some time to spare and set it up I guess.

Thanks rjbetty for that I really enjoyed it. Cant see Ricciardo finishing the championship ahead of Vettel though.

As for FGP, Aki Hedghog Racing Team has major dealings afoot.