Oh wow I just wrote a long team by team preview and reached the final team when internet exlorer disappeared abruptly and - it's gone! That's a shame as I was in the flow today - no writer's block here!
I'll do it in Notepad next time and copy and paste - if I can find it in me to do it again!
*Sighs*
(also I can see the typo in the title. I blame the keyboard)
Daft! No wonder you are a Matthew Wilson fan.
TOP TEAMS
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RED BULL RACING - RENAULT
===================
Well, Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull look like the favourites again. I think Vettel will win it again. If he qualifies on pole for the majority of the races, he should be fine. If not, it's a chance for him to conquer another area which has been suspect in the past - his ability to race in the pack, and drag the car to victories when it isn't the best. I'm very confident that for his next trick, he will master this area too.
Mark Webber I suspect, should close the gap to Vettel slightly, but with other teams catching up, he could be left vulnerable. We'll see how many years he has left. I think he could retire in 2013 or even 2014, so Jean Eric Vergne has a chance to develop more at Toro Rosso first.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 1st
Vettel: 1st
Webber: 5th (or 4th)
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MCLAREN - MERCEDES
===============
Fair play to them for having a good looking car without a 2012 nose. It certainly looks like McLaren are in a better place to close the gap this year. The only trouble is, as much as the double-diffuser ban will affect Red Bull, it might affect McLaren even more! Remember Silverstone last year. They seemed to struggle more than anyone else with the loss. I do believe they will close on Red Bull though. Maybe they can even take the constructors' championship this time.
Jenson Button will not get any slower this year. Even if Hamilton finds his form, I don't think Jenson will be much fazed and should score more good wins. But I can't see a Button/McLaren combination, excellent as it is, toppling the Vettel/Red Bull partnership.
I just don't know what to expect from Lewis Hamilton this season, but I will say it should be better than 2011 and I expect him to finish higher this year. In his favour, I believe if a McLaren driver were to take the title this year, it would be Hamilton. But again Hamilton+McLaren < Vettel+Red Bull this year I think, however close it is. I expect both drivers to take top 3 placings this year. I have no idea if he will outscore Button this time.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 2nd
Button: 2nd or 3rd
Hamilton: 2nd or 3rd
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FERRARI
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Well their car looks pretty **** and doesn't perform much better just now. But Ferrari are too big a team to slip down and struggle. They will recover and be winners this year. Considering they would have finished 3rd even in 2009 if Massa had been around for all the races, I think 3rd once again is their likely result.
It will be interesting to see how Fernando Alonso copes. He had shown in 2008 this situation of machinery being sub-standard but not showing IMPROVEMENT can wear even him down. I'm thinking Hockenheim 2008 though I wasn't watching F1 then, I just heard about that race. If the car has a hope of a win, he will of course take it.
I feel that Felipe Massa will reduce the gap to Alonso this year and show improvement, but it will be too little too late and I expect his exit to be announced before the end of the season.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 3rd
Alonso: 4th (or 5th)
Massa: 7th (6th-8th too close to call)
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MERCEDES
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This is one of the most interesting prospects for me this year. I've been disappointed too many times over the years so I will say Mercedes will close the gap to Ferrari and maybe even challenge them for 3rd in the constructors. I believe this team will come good and be champions eventually. If that seems impossible, think of Red Bull 10 years ago and the hopeless mess they were in (as Jaguar), or even how they were in 2008.
The signs look good, and the gap will surely close this time. But I won't get too excited. Instead I predict a season more like 2010, as the team surely returns to the podium.
This is crunch time for Michael Schumacher. I will predict that he will make the podium this time, and it will be one of the most popular and feel-good moments of the season. A win looks out of reach, but with a better car (like the 2012 Mercedes may be) he could have done it in Canada last year. It was only Schumacher's rustiness that caused so many mistakes last year. The really encouraging thing is that without these mistakes, he would have scored several strong results which would have been enough to give him more points than Rosberg (and be close to Massa even!). The errors were not Sato like, but rather he kept being just a few percent out. So with the errors ironed out by another year under his belt, surely Michael can outscore Rosberg this time round.
As for Nico, he will again outqualify Michael I'm sure, but the improvements that Mercedes look set to make will return him to the podium and relight his fire. It looks good.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 4th
Schumacher: 6th (now THAT is sticking my neck out! I think 8th is more likely though...)
Rosberg: 8th (6th-8th)
Oh wow, I've got to do my Renault and Force India for a third time now. Might just jack it in for the night.
*sighs and grits teeth slightly at all the wasted time...*
I think this year is going to pivot on what McLaren can produce.
The RB is going to be the best car out there IMHO but the gap will be closed and IF McLaren turn out a car that can challenge the Bull, then I see a battle royal between Seb and Lewis and it's no secret that I think when under real pressure, Vettel will crack. Then we will have Jenson in the mix. He's getting stronger and stronger with his natural talent, fast style and maturity combining to offer a very real challenge for the title.
Webber will close the gap but will be fighting for the 3rd step most of the time.
Behind these 2 teams, the story gets a little muddled. Where re Ferrari? I suspect a battle royal this year between Nico and Alonso with Webber dropping into the melee and schumacher sometimes being fast enough to challenge / take some of them out.
As for the rest, I have no idea. Have Williams turned it around with all the changes at Grove recently? The car shows some promise. What about FI? Can they get in the Ferrari and Mercedes mix? Lotus suggest they have a car that could produce a surprise and then we have the perenial midfielders Torro.
If I have to nail my colours to the mast, my heart says it's going to be Lewis's title this year. I'm not listening to my head :D
I think Vettel is still favourite for the WDC especially as if going by testing RBR still has got a marginal advantage. But the fight for WCC could be interesting, being more like what we had in 2010 rather than 2011. So Webber really has to stop underperforming, because McLaren has two very good drivers and even if Vettel is too much for them to beat, Webber has to work hard not to lose ground in WCC.
Behind them we have another potentially interesting battle - Mercedes and Ferrari. We may discuss whether in the opening races Ferrari may get outraced by Force India or someone else (like in the beginning of 2011 Ferrari was outraced by Renault), but I think over a full season one would certainly expect them to be at least in Top4. But can Mercedes perform well enough to capitalize on Ferrari's troubles and beat them even over a full season? One area of concern for Ferrari and hope for Mercedes is the continued underperformance of Massa. Even if Alonso is too hard to beat for Merc drivers, they can both hope to keep Massa behind and hence capitalize in WCC.
I don't think Vettel should be expected to crack, when there is a tight title battle going on. Going by history Hamilton is more likely to crack.Quote:
Originally Posted by Knock-on
I think last year Lewis was OTT and expected people to jump out of the way. With the changes in his personal life, and another year under his belt, I hope he will be aggressive with a bit more maturity.
Don't you think he might be a little distracted this year ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Knock-on
I agree. It's fairly safe to assume Red Bull haven't produced a dog of a car so they'll be right up there. The question is whether anyone has managed to close the gap or eliminate it altogether. So far, although it's obviously still early, McLaren look the team most likely to take the fight to the champions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Knock-on
I'd love to see Mark Webber back challenging for the title again, but while he may be a factor I suspect it will come down to Vettel, Button and Hamilton. Vettel had the car and ability to pull out a gap at the very start last year which tended to set the pattern for the races. If he's prevented from doing that this year he'll find he has a real fight on his hands.
@Knock-on: I like the last line of your post! But I'm cautious about it happening sadly...
@Jens: That is so right! Yeah I do think Lewis would be the one to crack. I think Vettel will now improve in this weak area of fighting in the pack or under pressure - because he seems to be passionate about his craft. For him it's not just one passion amongst others...
I hope Mercedes can get WCC 3rd, but I'm not getting my hopes up...
:up:Quote:
Originally Posted by jens
Well, we will see if Sebastian 'Glass Jaw' Vettel proves you right :)
Lewis self confidence isn´t what is was once upon a time.
How do you know?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mia 01
I think it should be a great season this year, i have a feeling that while Red Bull will have the better pace in Quali, I reckon the races will be neck and neck. Mclaren and Red Bull should be almost tied by the end of the year.
I think Ferrari will be a way off those two, but will still battle Mercedes for 3rd.
As for the drivers: A wild go at Jenson to pip Lewis and Seb at the final Round.
Ferrari still struggling to manage their tyres. Last year, they couldn't get them up to temp but it seems like this year they're ok for a few laps straigt away but then lose grip going in and coming out of the corners. Qualifying should be OK but they will go backwards in the race unless they get it sorted.
Being a little cruel, you hve to say that Kimi delivered a championship during his tenure and the man that replaced him has not.
Talking like that is tabu. Alonso is the best driver - ever.Quote:
Originally Posted by Knock-on
In reality he is among the good drivers.
Ok I'm gonna take a guess that the average qualifying times this year could be something like this. I've only done it to 1 decimal place cos it's only a guesstimate. This is based on the recent testing times too, and we know how unreliable those are!
1.Vettel
2.Hamilton +0.2
3.Webber +0.2
4.Button +0.3
5.Alonso +0.6
6.Rosberg +0.6
7.Schumacher +0.9
8.Massa +0.9
9.Raikkonen +0.9
10.Grosjean +1.1
11.Hulkenberg +1.4
12.di Resta +1.4
13.Senna +1.7
14.Maldonado +1.7
15.Perez +1.8
16.Kobayashi +2.0
17.Ricciardo +2.1
18.Vergne +2.2
19.Kovalainen +2.7
20.Petrov +3.1
21.Glock +4.8
22.Pic +5.3
23.de la Rosa +5.7
24.Karthikeyan +6.4
Really hope I'm right about Caterham.
This doesn't take into account 'race pace' (love how Coulthard says that), just what I think qualifying may be. And it doesn't take into account team developments through the year.
What do you think? You think it's something like this?
=====================================
LOTUS - RENAULT (Yes they are actually called Lotus now!)
=====================================
Well whatever anyone says, it's never good to lose 4 days with a chassis problem. But they've been topping the times so expectations are high. Thing is, we all know that topping the times means the square root of exactly stuff-all. So did Williams last year (I hear). That's why the teams are all repeating the cliche that "we will only know in qualifying in Melbourne in two weeks time... (blah blah blah!)
Well you know what? There are reasons to believe this could be a good year for Benetton, er I mean LOTUS. Consider that this time last year they were looking in mightily good form. It's true that they fell away badly and only finished 4 points ahead of Force India. But the thing is, that was only because of losing star driver Kubica. He would probably have finished 2nd in Melbourne (I bet Vettel might have found more if Robert had challenged him) and 3rd in Malaysia. From that platform and with that leadership, where would they have ended?
I believe Lotus/Renault's true potential was quite a lot higher than it looked last year. So taking that as the platform for 2012 it looks pretty good. Even more so when the team and drivers have praise for the new car and look happy so they can't be in too bad a shape.
The big question is what Kimi is going to be like. It would be fantastic to have the McLaren-spec Raikkonen, and thankfully there are signs the real Raikkonen (who really left the sport around 2006-07) could be the one who returns. I reckon Lotus and their drivers could be similar to Sauber and Jacques Villeneuve and Felipe Massa in 2005, where Raikkonen situation might be similar to Villeneuve's (though I can't believe there's any way Kimi will be remotely that bad!) I mean he could actually be outperformed by Grosjean at first before asserting himself. I can picture Kimi missing out on quite a few points due to rusty racecraft, a little like with Schumacher. I can actually see him maybe struggling a bit, but he should still get one or two good results this year.
As for Grosjean, I feel he may do better than many expect. He could even have the measure of Kimi (somewhat), especially at first. Romain had no chance in '09 - it wasn't representative and needs to be discounted. I don't know what kind of points he can bank though, which could make him vulnerable to the Force India drivers i the championship.
MY PREDICTION:
Contructors: 5th
Raikkonen: 9th
Grosjean: 11th
My guess for average sort of Quali timesQuote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
1. Vettel
2. Hamilton +0.2
3. Webber +0.4
4. Button +0.4
5. Alonso +0.5
6. Rosberg +0.7
7. Raikkonen +0.75
8. Massa +0.8
9.Schumacher +0.9
10. Di Resta +1.1
11.Grosjean +1.2
12. Perez +1.2
13. Hulkenberg +1.4
14. Ricciardo +1.7
15. Senna +1.8
16. Kobayashi +1.9
17. Maldonado +2.1
18. Vergne +2.2
19. Kovalainen +2.4
20. Petrov +2.7
21. Glock +4.8
22. Pic +5.3
23. De La Rosa +5.3
24. Karthikeyan +5.9
Hey those are very good! I think they're better than mine. :) I hope Caterham will be that close! I was going to put +2.4 and +2.7 myself but I'm cautious after so many years of disappointment hoping for closer fields but it not happening (especially 2002 - my gosh).
I too really hope that Caterham mingle amongst the tailend of the midfield. Heres hoping.
Regarding your qualifying predictions.
If past seasons are anything to go by, Rosberg will beat Schumacher quite significantly. If midfield is tight, Schumacher may well miss Q3 on several occasions, while Rosberg qualifies around top6.
I personally think Vergne may turn out to be quicker than Ricciardo, especially on Saturdays. But Vergne is more 'aggressive' and potentially more error-prone in races.
Grosjean v Räikkönen, Senna v Maldonado and Hülkenberg v di Resta are going to be interesting in qualifying trim too. One may claim that while in race trim Räikkönen is the favourite, in qualifying it can be the other way around.
I agree that Pérez will likely outqualify Kobayashi though. Wonder about Kovalainen v Petrov. I suspect on some occasions Petrov will get a serious beating, especially while he is adapting to the car, which increases the average.
Championship Points Prediction
====================
1.Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull) 312pts
2.Lewis Hamilton (McLaren) 297pts
3.Jenson Button (McLaren) 291pts
4.Mark Webber (Red Bull) 234pts
5.Fernando Alonso (Ferrari) 214pts
6.Michael Schumacher (Mercedes) 142pts
7.Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 124pts
8.Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) 123pts
9.Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus) 74pts
10.Paul di Resta (Force India) 47pts
11.Romain Grosjean (Lotus) 36pts
12.Nico Hulkenberg (Force India) 31pts
13.Sergio Perez (Sauber) 23pts
14.Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber) 19pts
15.Jean-Eric Vergne (Toro Rosso) 14pts
16.Bruno Senna (Williams) 14pts
17.Daniel Ricciardo (Toro Rosso) 10pts
18.Pastor Maldonado (Williams) 9pts
19.Heikki Kovalainen (Caterham) 4pts
20.Vitaly Petrov (Caterham) Best Finish - 12th
21.Timo Glock (Marussia) Best Finish - 12th
22.Pedro de la Rosa (HRT) Best Finish - 13th
23.Narain Karthikeyan (HRT) Best Finish - 14th
24.Charles Pic (Marussia) Best Finish - 14th
CONSTRUCTORS
===========
1.McLaren - Mercedes 588pts
2.Red Bull - Renault 546pts
3.Ferrari 338pts
4.Mercedes 265pts
5.Lotus GP - Renault 110pts
6.Force India - Mercedes 78pts
7.Sauber - Ferrari 41pts
8.Toro Rosso - Ferrari 24pts
9.Williams - Renault 23pts
10.Caterham - Renault 4pts
11.Marussia - Cosworth
12.HRT - Cosworth
Please Michael and Heikki, and McLaren, make it come true!
According to your prediction Ferrari will make a good recovery during the season, with Alonso pulling well clear of Mercedes' drivers and getting even close to Webber in the end! :)
Then again he has already recovered from a horrible start in his career - 2008. After the beginning of the season wouldn't have thought Alonso in the Renault would finish 5th even ahead of Heidfeld's BMW and Kovalainen's McLaren!
Ok I haven't got time to do everyone else before tomorrow, so a quick rundown it is:
FORCE INDIA
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To their credit, have improved year on year, even last year when they were predicted (by me too) to reverse. So I'd say then can defy predictions again and maybe take another small step, especially with the driver line up being a year stronger.
Team-mate battle is probably the most interesting one for me - so hard to call!
Having thought a lot, how about this: di Resta to be ahead on points, Hulkenberg to edge it in quali.
I like both drivers but I want Hulkenberg to win it - he just seems humbler, but I hope di Resta is as good as he thinks he is.
I do wonder if di Resta could have been capable of bettering what Hulkenberg did in Brazil 2010.
All in all, an easy 6th in the championship.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 6th
Di Resta: 10th
Hulkenberg: 12th (10th-12th)
SAUBER
======
They're saying they're quick after testing - but so is everyone else. I can't see them making a big leap to beat Force India. I expect Perez to grow stronger, and maybe Kobayashi to be discouraged and grow weaker maybe. Team might go back to the bad old days of starting pretty well and fading away in the season. Could be vulnerable to Toro Rosso and an improved Williams too. I will be surprised if this team do make any big jump in performance. Neverthless, experience to see them hold on to 7th in the end (my guess).
MY PREDICTION
Constructors: 7th
Kobayashi: 14th
Perez: 13th
TORO ROSSO
=========
Another interesting battle. I tip Vergne to win, especially in qualifying. Maybe in the points too as I could imagine him picking up one biggish result somewhere to tip him ahead on points. Hard to tell if Toro Rosso will continue their upward car momentum this year. I'd guess inexperience will cost points and they will total (slightly) less than Alguersuari/Buemi would have done, though I guess the new drivers ultimately have more potential. Maybe they can beat Sauber this time, but may have to watch for an improved Williams.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 8th
Vergne: 15th
Ricciardo: 17th
WILLIAMS
=======
The good news is I think Williams at least won't slide down any further - for now.
They have scope to improve and hopefully Senna's money will help them do so.
Both drivers can only improve this year and the Renault engine is a guaranteed improvement.
Expect a good haul more points this year, and give Sauber and Toro Rosso at least some challenge - alhough I expect Wililams may fall short, having SUCH a big points gap to make up on 2011.
I've just had a thought: How about if Williams 2011 = Honda 2007, then Williams 2012 = Honda 2008? (not a transformation, but a good load more points)
MY PREDICTION: 9th
Maldonado: 18th
Senna: 16th
CATERHAM
=======
Oh boy have I learned over the years to rein in optimism as positive predictions have been quashed by cold hard (boring) reality one the season is underway. So I have learned to never expect much and make bold predictions.
And yet, if Caterham finish 2012 pointless again, I will actually be surprised. Just as surely as Michael must get that podium this year, so surely must Caterham finally make it into the top 10. If rumours are to be believed, they could actually be very close to the midfield, and maybe even at the level Williams were at last year - which for them would be utterly fantastic!
This year, Caterham will finally shut up their critics over on crash.net .
As for their fight with HRT and Marussia, forget it. Caterham are in another league now.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 9th
Kovalainen: 19th
Petrov: 20th
HRT
===
Despite the unprepared start again (possibly even worse this time around), this is a team I believe in. Why's that? Because they've already defied the predictions of what seems the majority in that THEY ARE STILL HERE.
They've even managed to finish 11th for both years, but they can't keep staying ahead of what is actually a faster Marussia. But is it? Maybe now Marussia are in the same boat, HRT can beat them on merit this time! I expect to see them again in 2013.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 12th
Karthikeyan: 24th
de la Rosa: 22nd
MARUSSIA
=======
So another naive businessman saunters in thinking they will be successful in F1 in a short time, only to find it's not the case, then they quietly pack up and leave, having sold the team on. Cheerio Richard!
Hard to tell where Marussia will be, except it's NOWHERE near Caterham. These two teams are now totally out of touch with Caterham. There are reasons for promise: Pat Symonds and McLaren resources.
But if any team were to the pull the plug, I'd bank on it being Marussia rather than HRT.
Tough luck Glock - I guess you hould have taken that Renault seat when you had the chance - who knows where you would be now with Kubica gone...
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 11th (for Glock's sake)
Glock: 21st (again for his sake)
Pic: 23rd
CONCLUSION
=========
So there we have it. Basically I haven't got a clue what's going to happen, unlike 2010 where I somehow got it perfect!