Richard Branson (Virgin) to save Honda together with Adrian Reynard?

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Originally Posted by Dylan H

Try actually reading my original post. I've explained why the Japanese and European makers will be hit if GM or Chrysler go down. Its to do with suppliers falling and the market being awash with cheap GM/Chrysler stock being liquidated. I haven't read anything in your posts to explain why industry forecasters have got it wrong.

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I read it and I disagree.
The suppliers will cut back and live live with the contracts from the Europeans and Japanese and maybe Ford.
Just because GM and Chryslers go belly up it doesn't mean that manufacturers that produce way more than them will not be able to support at least partially the suppliers.

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Originally Posted by Dylan H

No you misquoted me. 80% of BMWs sold in the UK and the US are sold on credit.

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My bad, sorry. :)

On the above thread you stated that 80% of BMW ,s sold in UK or USA were on credit..I think what is true is that in the UK85% of ALL cars are on credit,lease or not paid for by the person driving them.I was also told by a dutch dealer that it is just the same in his country,.Ask any body who works in a bank and they will tell you that 85% of all bank accouts in the UK if not the rest of Europe ,are in the RED

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Originally Posted by ioan

I read it and I disagree.
The suppliers will cut back and live live with the contracts from the Europeans and Japanese and maybe Ford.
Just because GM and Chryslers go belly up it doesn't mean that manufacturers that produce way more than them will not be able to support at least partially the suppliers.

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The suppliers will lose a significant chunk, we're talking up to 50-60% of their custom from GM/Chrysler going bust. Thats on top of the already reduced custom due to everyone cutting production anyway.

They won't simply cut back and live. The healthiest suppliers will survive but a large number won't. The suppliers that do go bust will affect all the companies they supply, not just GM and Chrysler.

Try cutting sales in any company by 50-60% and see how well they fare.

Anyway here's a link that explains things better.

http://www.reuters.com/article/compa...3?symbol=TRW.N

According to Autosport, the News Of The World (ok, so they've made up a few stories in the past) interviewed Bernie, and he confirmed that the rumours about him offering to buy out Honda were true, but they turned him down! Last week I thought that Honda's survival looked quite good, but the sounds from Branson aren't positive, and this only really leaves the management buyout option.

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Originally Posted by driveace

On the above thread you stated that 80% of BMW ,s sold in UK or USA were on credit..I think what is true is that in the UK85% of ALL cars are on credit,lease or not paid for by the person driving them.I was also told by a dutch dealer that it is just the same in his country,.Ask any body who works in a bank and they will tell you that 85% of all bank accouts in the UK if not the rest of Europe ,are in the RED

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I just picked BMW as an example, its one of the worst affected by poor credit flows because much of its recent sales expansion has been credit fed. You're right of course that all makers are affected by this, and its interesting to see that in the first carmaker bailout in the US GM and Chrysler funnelled government cash partly directly into their credit wings to allow more credit funded purchases.

My understanding is that the level of credit funded car purchases is lower on the Continent, though how much so I don't know.

I disagree with the 85% figure about bank accounts though, you may not believe it but the majority of people in the UK are actually net savers, the problem is that a significant minority live on credit and a small number of those have totally overborrowed. Still, you only need a small decline in the number of people with money to spend to cause a recession as long as the perception of impending doom exists in the rest of the population with money.

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Originally Posted by ioan

The European and Japanese constructors have a market of their own, free of any american counterparts and will survive just fine when the GM and Chrysler go down.



That seems to much to me. There are plenty of BMW's in Europe and Rusia too.
EU is half a billion people even without the UK, that is almost double of the USA, and if you count Russia it well over it.
If 20% of the BMW only are sold in EU and Rusia + Asia, and I still see plenty of them everywhere, than 80% in a much smaller market would mean that the density of BMW's in the US and UK is 10 times higher than in Europe, which I can't believe.

Maybe they sold in the US 70-80% of the Z8 or some other very expensive roadster that European's won't buy for practical reasons. But 80% of their production is difficult to believe.

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It may be difficult to believe, but it's true. The US has been BMW's largest market for years and last I saw, they sell more cars in the US than all other markets combined.

I suspect maybe you don't quite realize just how many cars there actually are in the US and just how many people directly rely on the automobile industry for employment. Hell, I worked for two different major suppliers to GM and Chrysler while in college. I know absolutely no one that doesn't own a car, and I can honestly say, I don't know a family that doesn't own at least Two. The EU may have have a billion people, but the percentage of car ownership in the US is VASTLY higher than the EU. It may sound a uppity or bragging, but I own 7 cars, all operational. Granted 3 are old VW beetles and one is a minivan we keep for travelling to football and soccer games and races, but we have them none the less.
I've honestly never seen a Z8, but 3 and 5 series are a dime a dozen and the Z3's are everywhere. The SUV's are also pretty common. Without trouble, I can come up with at least 2-3 dozen people I know personally that have at least 1 BMW in the garage and I dont' exactly live in an overly affluent area.

Their US sales numbers are pretty well published. BMW's are VERY common, At least in my area. To be honest, They aren't really seen as anything really special unless you have a 6 or 7 or things like an M5. I EASILY see more 3 series BMW's than any Mercedes model, and you can't shake a stick without hitting a MERC.

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Originally Posted by nigelred5

It may be difficult to believe, but it's true. The US has been BMW's largest market for years and last I saw, they sell more cars in the US than all other markets combined.

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1,276,793 BMW brand cars were sold in 2007, surpassing the previous year's level (1,185,088 units) by 7.7%.

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The USA remained the largest single market for BMW and MINI cars in 2007. With a sales volume of 335,840 units (2006: 313,603 units /+7.1%), the BMW Group sold more vehicles there than ever before. On top of this, BMW was the most popular European premium brand among US customers in 2007. In total, 293,795 BMW brand cars (2006: 274,432 units, +7.1%) were sold in the United States, making it the most successful European car brand on the US market in 2007.

http://www.autospies.com/news/BMW-Se...-Record-26092/

So, they sell nearly 1/3 to the US. Still a major share of revenue!

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Originally Posted by nigelred5

It may be difficult to believe, but it's true. The US has been BMW's largest market for years and last I saw, they sell more cars in the US than all other markets combined.

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My problem was with the 80%, but it turned out he was only talking about cars sold on credit.

I don't doubt that the US (as a country) is the biggest market for BMW given that it is the most populated country where people could afford to buy a BMW (US approx 300.000.000, Japan approx 100.000.000+ and next is Germany with 90.000.000+ inhabitants, the rest are all even smaller).

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Originally Posted by ioan

I don't doubt that the US (as a country) is the biggest market for BMW given that it is the most populated country where people could afford to buy a BMW (US approx 300.000.000, Japan approx 100.000.000+ and next is Germany with 90.000.000+ inhabitants, the rest are all even smaller).

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I would say that China and India are the largest Markets for BMW, regardless of the number of cars they sell there.

BACK ON TOPIC

The Virgin deal must be dead as it looks like it is a management buy out afterall...



Go look at Honda GP Ltd on Companies House Direct - the UK companies register

A whole load of forms 403a have been filed today, releasing the company's assets from various charges that the company's funders held.
This all suggests that the facilities have been paid off in full and means that the company would be free to sell those assets.

So In other words, something is definitely happening today and it looks like the rumour of the Management Buyout today could well be true.

http://wck2.companieshouse.gov.uk/3ae9f3d8...dorder?incexc=1