Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
Mercedes (cont'd)
Williams
Pat Symonds promised that the aero has taken a step up on the 2014 car. Early signs show that just possibly, Williams could be set for a good but not great season. They might actually be better than Force India, in which case 5th in the WCC may be very attainable indeed. What price a podium or two for Bottas somewhere?
One more thought about Williams again. At the moment they look good, at least fourth best based on Jerez or even at stretch you could say they seem a match to Ferrari for third. They seem set to have a better season (can't be that difficult to better last year's 5 points), but how much better?
If I am trying to recall past years, the impression I get is that Williams has always looked better at winter tests than in the racing reason. And when I compare Force India and Williams, I think I'd still back Force India to finish the season above Williams even if they start out worse. 2011 and 2012 were good examples of Force India having a very good in-season development pace, where they ended strongly after a disappointing start.
Could Williams finish 6th though? It is a possibility, but very much dependent on how bad or good the Renault engines exactly are, which is very hard to tell at this point and on which the fate of Lotus and STR will depend on. Sauber hasn't made a strong impression so far, but during the season they may challenge Williams too.
---
Rjbetty. I find it pretty interesting that you compare Lotus' potential 2014 to Benetton's 2001. As we remember, Benetton came back pretty strong late in the 2001 season with Fisichella even grabbing a podium at Spa. Also a large reason for Benetton's struggle back then was the engine. The design team was competent enough (led by Mike Gascoyne at the time), but the new 111-degree engine was down on power. As it was, Renault never got this engine work well enough and ditched it after 2003. Since returning to a more conventional engine Renault developed into a championship-winning team.
By the way, I remember back in 2003 there were claims that Renault could possibly have the best chassis on the grid, only let down by the engine. So indeed, the chassis engineering quality has always been there at Enstone (the base of Lotus/Renault/Benetton). This was also the case in 2009, when they were let down by having to mess with KERS packaging - once again a component outside Enstone's facilities. In 2007 were perhaps hurt by Michelin's departure to which it was hard to adapt to.
Despite all those financial troubles I think the Enstone engineering factory is the best asset of the Lotus' team. It has seen all kinds of days - ownership changes, personnel/technical director changes, but one thing has always remained - inherent chassis engineering quality. I am impressed. It looks like the base has a good culture/athmosphere/aura, which keeps the performance up.:)
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by jens
If I am trying to recall past years, the impression I get is that Williams has always looked better at winter tests than in the racing reason. And when I compare Force India and Williams, I think I'd still back Force India to finish the season above Williams even if they start out worse. 2011 and 2012 were good examples of Force India having a very good in-season development pace, where they ended strongly after a disappointing start.
Oh yeah I agree that's true. IIRC Williams looked very impressive in 2011 pre-season testing...
As for Force India, I guess you could count 2009 too as a good development year. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by jens
Despite all those financial troubles I think the Enstone engineering factory is the best asset of the Lotus' team. It has seen all kinds of days - ownership changes, personnel/technical director changes, but one thing has always remained - inherent chassis engineering quality. I am impressed. It looks like the base has a good culture/athmosphere/aura, which keeps the performance up.:)
I hope so, as I like the team. But I'm concerned they may have just lost too much important staff. But even so, I'm believing that even though their technical depth is much reduced, it could till be enough to see them do better later on in the year, and still have a basically sound chassis.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by RS
What are the rules in regards to engine development now? Are the specs frozen immediately or can they actually develop them now?
They are homologated at the end of February up until which they can do whatever they want. After February they can carry on developing the engines but are limited to what components they work on. They are given a total number of points they can spend on parts of the engine, the total number of points drops substantially each year to hit zero in 2016 or 2017 or so.
I think its futile guessing relative performance at this point when many of the teams are still running some 2013 spec aero components and are testing with reduced revs and varying levels of ERS (if at all). Bahrain might tell us more but we will only know at the first race as usual.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malbec
They are homologated at the end of February up until which they can do whatever they want. After February they can carry on developing the engines but are limited to what components they work on. They are given a total number of points they can spend on parts of the engine, the total number of points drops substantially each year to hit zero in 2016 or 2017 or so.
That was an interesting change in the new version of the regs that came out in December. These new engine development regs are not completely clear but as I understand it, what is homologated on 28 Feb is what they are stuck with for the rest of the year (except for reliability improvements approved by the FIA in consultation with the other suppliers - as has been the case in recent years).
Then the points budget comes in when it comes to submitting a modified engine to use in subsequent years.
Each component or design area of the engine has a points value - from 3 points for something really important like the combustion chamber geometry, down to 1 point for something simpler like the inlet trumpets or oil pump. The total engine design comes to 66 points.
For 2015 they are allowed to modify 32 points worth of components. Then for 2016-2018 it's 25, 20 and 15 points respectively.
In addition there is an increasing list of components that can't be modified at all. For 2015, only some major things like significant crankcase and crankshaft dimensions must remain unchanged from 2014. They have a fairly free hand to spend their points on changing whatever other components they choose. From 2015 on, additional components are frozen each year.
From the 2018 season, there is almost a complete engine freeze, but there are still some electrical items that can be changed each year after that (up to 2020 which is as far as the rules go).
This all looks potentially very expensive. All the manufacturers still have 4 years of costly engine development ahead of them.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
I wonder if we can predict that Red Bull will have reliability issues this year.
I mean I have seen plenty of people jumping for joy that Red Bull are struggling and even heard them saying on the radio that Red Bulls domination is crumbling.
I think its a bit early to be predicting that. However it will certainly give them a headache moving onto Bahrain. I assume the first day or two will be spent making sure they are on top of their problems while others get a head start on development.
It maybe we see Red Bull fall from domination, but I would say that if there is one team who have the people to get the car back on track then it is Red Bull.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Word from the Red Bull bunker is that Adrian Newey has hastily drawn up a heavily revised car for the Bahrain test, although the design guru stresses that the aerodynamic package is a 'strictly interim solution'.
http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archiv...n__315816p.jpg
Should this, frankly ingenious, solution fail to deliver, too, Christian Horner has promised to grant him 'full creative authority and rumour has it that this fallback option has already been secretly tested by members of Red Bull's junior drivers program.
http://popeyethewelder.com/wp-conten...Sail-Buggy.jpg
Experts however doubt that even Red Bulls budget will cater for Newey's wish to use exotic materials like pixy dust and the mildly radioactive Unobtanium.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
I´m afraid that Red Bull will be at it once moore, perhaps beside the first competition.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mia 01
I´m afraid that Red Bull will be at it once moore, perhaps beside the first competition.
As I stated even prior to Jerez, I have a sneaky suspicion this will not be Red Bulls or Vettels year this time . The catastrophic testing failure at Jerez will also have set them back massively and so I do not expect them to be at the sharp end of the results especially in the opening race.... If they are, the rest of the grid would probably be as well concentrating on their 2015 car instead.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zico
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mia 01
I´m afraid that Red Bull will be at it once moore, perhaps beside the first competition.
As I stated even prior to Jerez, I have a sneaky suspicion this will not be Red Bulls or Vettels year this time . The catastrophic testing failure at Jerez will also have set them back massively and so I do not expect them to be at the sharp end of the results especially in the opening race.... If they are, the rest of the grid would probably be as well concentrating on their 2015 car instead.
With the catastrophic failure called 'a Renault engine' they won't go anywhere before Silverstone, even if Newey manages to whip up a new car.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
[quote=dj_bytedisaster]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zico
Quote:
Originally Posted by "Mia 01":2m9lbwxh
I´m afraid that Red Bull will be at it once moore, perhaps beside the first competition.
As I stated even prior to Jerez, I have a sneaky suspicion this will not be Red Bulls or Vettels year this time . The catastrophic testing failure at Jerez will also have set them back massively and so I do not expect them to be at the sharp end of the results especially in the opening race.... If they are, the rest of the grid would probably be as well concentrating on their 2015 car instead.
With the catastrophic failure called 'a Renault engine' they won't go anywhere before Silverstone, even if Newey manages to whip up a new car.[/quote:2m9lbwxh]
Yep, agreed. Adrian Newey is a genius but I very much doubt even he is that good to be able to turn things around before the opener.
