2014 F1 season prediction

No prob, glad you enjoyed it, was a good bit of fun. :)

As for Vauxhall F1 Team, we may be going for a radical approach again with a completely new line-up (gotta get itright sometime).

Meanwhile,

Sauber F1 - Ferrari season preview
Well, this is one of the more difficult teams to predict fortunes for: On one hand, they have great infrastructure and capabilities; on the other, they are short of cash to use them. I can see Sauber as one of the teams that might get it wrong this year. Someone recently spoke about some teams being ready for 2014 while others will be comparatively totally unprepared. I have been wondering which teams fall into which group, though everyone is positive at this time of year.

You don't have to be Adrian Newey to figure out that Red Bull will be in the former group. As for those who don't have a clue, Lotus spring to mind. But maybe Sauber are another one; for if they didn't have a clue how to make a 2013 car (for much of the season), how much more might they struggle to nail these new tougher regs down. Generally, I find it easier to envisage Sauber struggling than being a great success - especially with the fairly uninspiring drier line-up.

On that front, Adrian Sutil is a decent choice, and I like him, but there are better drivers out there. At least he has wet weather skills, though sadly this will not be put to use as F1 doesn't run in the wet anymore. :mad: He doesn't seem like someone who will inspire and lead the team through hard times, given that he moaned about Force India last year. In that light, he can count himself fortunate to still have a drive.

Esteban Gutierrez struggled most of the time last year. It was a little unfair a he himself said he wasn't ready for F1 just yet. He was shoehorned in by the team to please the sponsors. I remember my second ever copy of Autosport; it wa the 1998 season review edition. In it, Martin Brundle ranked all 23 (including Jos) drivers (and he did it in his usual style - basically whoever won or was at the front got the highest places while those further back got lower places, seemingly without much thought that some drivers had much worse cars - though he did rank Takagi 12th!) Anyway, he said for Esteban Tuero "someone did this kid a great dis-service"... by putting him in an F1 car too early.

That's how I felt about Gutierrez. So perhaps it is very fair that he now gets a second chance. I for one, think he could mildly surprise and be quite a lot closer to Sutil than expected. I predict 0.4sec, but am hoping for 0.3, which it needs to be really if he is to progress.

Interestingly, sifting well between the lines shows that Esteban actually often showed very good pace compared to Hulkenberg last year, which implies a talent there, though it may also raise some questions about Hulkenberg. For example, when Nico scored that great 3rd place in qualifying at Monza, Gutierrez was about 0.5sec IIRC in Q1, yet started 17th from where he was in traffic, making it difficult to progress.

On the surface, all we saw was crashes (though he did so much less than some) and Q1 knockouts. But under that, there is enough to say he deserves another go. He should be a stronger this year, and certainly display more consistency, though if the car isn't good, outwardly results may not change. There were also two top 10 qualifying appearances, along with several points near-misses in the races - and don't forget, he has a fastest lap!

We also don't know how reliable Sauber wil be. They could even end up 9th in the WCC if they don't capitalise on enough opportunities.




Toro Rosso - Renault
The switch to Renault power could be an inspired choice for the Red Bull Jr team. Though the talk is of Mercedes having a power advantage, it could all turn out to be much more about driveability, fuel consumption, and reliability. We have not hear so much about these factors. It could possibly turn out that despite lacking pure grunt to Mercedes, Renault could actually be the best, or even dominant(?) overall engine in 2014.

I do not though, think that this guarantees that Toro Rosso are going to make a huge step. They do seem a lot more independent from the senior team than some might think, for in 2012, Ricciardo qualified, on average for all 20 2012 races, about +1.3sec behind Vettel.

In 2013, despite Ricciardo having more experience, the gap was probably a little larger to Vettel, more like 1.6 sec (I'm not totally sure). So it might not necessarily be that Toro Rosso are still effectively running a Red Bull clone, as I don't feel the junior drivers are really that much slower.

The gap opened out between Toro Rosso and Red Bull in 2013, so there's no reason for it not to a little again in 2014. Sadly, I don't see any reason to expect a huge leap, and therefore expect the same old to some extent, which is a shame since it makes it harder to get behind the team, though I do like them.

Jean-Eric Vergne is a driver under great pressure. Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari know that Helmut Marko wants to see performance after 3 years - not just sufficient performance, but something remarkable and special. Vergne is now in year 3. And boy has that gone quickly. Simply put, he must deliver.

The good news is that he can do it. He really wowed with his Canada performance last year, having been abject there in 2012. He qualified 7th and finished 6th in the dry, and he did destroy Ricciardo on that occasion. I honestly thought it would be he who got the Red Bull drive, and I felt he showed more than Ricciardo, in that there was an extra spark.

So it was most disappointing to see his bad reaction when he failed to get the drive at Red Bull. He scored no more points, and hardly outqualified Ricciardo again, and actually ended up with less points than in 2012. This is a great concern, and JEV really needs to re-invent himself this winter. He really has to have a season like in my Grand Prix 2 one, scoring 4 top 6 finishes and banking lots of points. The pressure is totally on - if he does merely a good job, nothing better, he WILL be out at the end of the year, and who would take him on them? Time to mean business JEV.

As for Daniil Kvyat (I have spelt his name right I think), I don't know enough about him, but he seems handy, though I expect inconsistency with hopefully some promising performances, which he has to have really as this programme is brutal. I am not necessarily against his signing over Antonio Felix da Costa, since what the team is looking for is not someone who's necessarily ready, but someone who simply has raw talent and potential. This is actually fine with me, and I wish Kvyat the best (I like Russian drivers for some reason).



Ohgreat,myspacebar'sdiedonmeagain...

Grand Prix 2 Season Conclusions

And here finally is the qualifying and race performances I predicted for the drivers and entered into the game, which resulted in the season I had.

Qualifying
1.Hamilton
2.Vettel +0.08
3.Rosberg +0.10
4.Ricciardo +0.38
5.Alonso +0.60
6.Raikkonen +0.76
7.Button +1.10
8.Magnussen +1.32
9.Grosjean +1.67
10.Hulkenberg +1.74
11.Perez +1.85
12.Maldonado +1.90
13.Bottas +2.15
14.Massa +2.20
15.Sutil +2.33
16.Vergne +2.37
17.Gutierrez +2.74
18.Kvyat +2.78
19.Kobayashi +4.12
20.van der Garde +4.12
21.Bianchi +4.58
22.Chilton +5.06

Race
1.Vettel
2.Rosberg +0.10
3.Hamilton +0.10
4.Alonso +0.58
5.Ricciardo +0.63
6.Raikkonen +0.63
7.Button +1.17
8.Magnussen +1.54
9.Grosjean +1.67
10.Hulkenberg +1.74
11.Perez +2.02
12.Maldonado +2.04
13.Vergne +2.18
14.Bottas +2.27
15.Massa +2.35
16.Sutil +2.44
17.Kvyat +2.78
18.Gutierrez +2.82
Caterham and Marussia same as qual


I tried to be as realistic as possible and tried not to judge too much by the previous season (as Jens rightly pointed out is a common problem to which I'm no exception), and tried to keep feelings and desires for a close field out of it.

I made Ferrari 6 to 7 tenths off, which is not close. So it was great to see even with these 'realistic' figures, it all turned out very close between the top teams. The figures reveal my overall predictions for pace this year (though I may have modified them slightly now).


Limitations of the game
1.Pit stops have to be the old fashioned way, with refuelling.
2.No DRS, KERS, Pirelli or anything
3.Qualifying has to be a single 20min session as that best simulates what F1 has. The cars are on rails here and any longer in the session would result in no-one ever being out of position slightly, as doe happen in real life.
4.Has to be 16 races - dropped Singapore, Russia and Abu Dhabi
5.Has to be 26 cars, so I add HRT and Scorpion.
6.You can modify AI mistake rates for each track. But this does not discriminate between drivers and treats all equally. This means that Sebastian Vettel is as likely to mess up as Pastor Maldonado, which is not realistic.
7.I didn't prepare the season well and actually had China and Bahrain the wrong way round. Several races had the wrong number of laps. Some drivers used wrong helmets, Kvyat used Webber's for example and Kobayashi didn't have this.
8.I'm sure I'll notice more.



The season did help me get an idea of how things could finish, and I can use it as a base guide. Things went badly for Vettel this season while much went right for Ricciardo. It could easily have gone the other way though.

I did also put in realistic probabilities for retirements. There were no crazy races with 6 finishers or anything. On average there were about 6-7 retirements per race, which I think is realistic and not too much.


Review of the season, and maybe some lessons to learn
Red Bull
Vettel was the quickest driver, certainly in race trim. over the season. Both drivers suffered 3 mechanical retirements. But Vettel crashed out early at Austria and Spa, and also made big mistakes in Australia, finishing 5th when he should have won, and Monza. We cannot count on that many in real life. Even so, he finished a full 49pts down.

Ricciardo hit the ground running with 4 podiums, 2 poles and 2 wins in the opening 4 races, including pole on his debut at Melbourne. It was a Frentzen-99 like season in which things went his way, at least early on. He crashed out of Monaco on lap 2 having taken the lead from Hamilton off the line. Suffered mechanical failures in Austria, Belgium and USA while leading which ended his title hopes.

However, after the first 4 races (all podiums), Ricciardo only scored 3 more podiums, all 2nds, and didn't add to his early win tally.

Both drivers scored 3 poles each, and surprisingly outqualified each other 8-8! Vettel had 5 retirements (unrealistic I think), Ricciardo 4.


Mercedes
A real season of what if. Neither driver qualified lower than 5th, except for Rosberg 18th in Japan, in what was the best qualifying car due to the power advantage. It looked so good when Hamilton won the opening race, but another win in Malaysia was ruined by a backmarker in turn 2, causing Lewis to violently swipe into Vettel, ending Hamilton's race. Bizarrely, backmarkers also caused Hamilton to crash in both Bahrain, where he was challenging for a win (though prob would have been 2nd) and Monaco where he would have won. He did score two 3rds and a 4th between this though. He was then very unfortunate to suffer an engine blowout while fairly dominating Austria. The same thing happened in USA while leading. There was also running out of fuel at the last corner at Spa, having led the race by 100sec! All a case of what if.

It was the same for Rosberg, with more mechanical unreliability putting him out in Australia, Malaysia and 3 others, while also costing him a possible win in Austria. He crashed out of Japan and damaged his wing in Bahrain, much delaying him. Eventualy finishing just 55pts down, also what if.

Hamilton outqualified Rosberg 10-6. Hamilton scored 6 poles and 3 wins, Rosberg 3 poles and 2 wins. Hamilton retired 5 times, Rosberg 6.


Ferrari
A lack of pace meant the first half the season didn't look good for Ferrari, as their drivers struggled to make the podium. Their pace was again not great, as shown by a single pole all season for Alonso in Hungary. Amazingly they kept plugging away picking up the big points when Red Bull and Mercedes faltered, and ended up taking both titles by stealth. Tellingly, Alonso only suffered 1 retirement all year, 3 laps from the end in Canada. He made no race ending errors either. Raikkonen also retired just twice. It seems that reliability really is the key, as on pace Ferrari were mostly nowhere. Interesting.

I can't not mention the intra-team rivalry. I made Raikkonen slower than Alonso in qualifying but closer in the race. It was a great surprise then that it was in qualifying after 14 rounds that the Finn headed the Spaniard 10-4 (Alonso took the final two)! While it was in the races that Alonso took the spoils, with 3 wins and 10 podiums to Raikkonen's 2 wins and 4 total podiums.

Raikkonen outqualified Alonso 10-6. Alonso retired once, Raikkonen twice.


Lotus
Oh dear. Even though I anticipated Lotus taking a sizeable stepback, shown by me giving them only marginally better pace than Force India, the way this season turned out (only 7th in the WCC) was worse than that. Usually qualifying between 8th-13th, Grosjean only started in the top 10 7 times, peaking with 7th on the grid at Silverstone.

Surprisingly, Maldonado had the upper hand early on, starting 8th at Malaysia and China and 7th in Canada, outqualifying RoGro 4-3 in the first 7 races. But from then on, he only started ahead once, at Spa. And that was because Grosjean had an unrepresentative qualifying, in 17th, though Maldonado was a team season-highest 6th on the grid.

Grosjean also asserted himself more in races despite having more retirements. But for both, points were only in the lower end of the top 10, Grosjean's best being 6th in Malaysia, 7th in Monaco and 8th in Brazil. Maldonado did grab a good 6th in Canada and bagged that podium at Spa when everyone ran out of fuel. Despite that, Grosjean did eventually finish ahead on points (but only because of the double rule).

I had thought I was too harsh on Lotus, and resolved to upgrade them. Since then however, I have decided that this could be their real performance...

Grosjean outqualified Maldonado 11-5. Grosjean retired from 4 races, Maldonado 3.


McLaren
It was at least a definite improvement on 2013. Button qualified in the top 6 five times, including a great 3rd on the grid at Canada. He had the curious pattern of coming either 4th 6th or 7th in every race he finished; that was until he spoilt it by losing time in the US, coming 8th, when he could well have repeated the pattern. Still, it beat 2013. A black mark though for throwing away 2nd at Sepang in the closing stages.

I really don't know what to expect from Kevin Magnussen. How ready is he after only doing FRenault 3.5? He did not have a season of driving in practice like Bottas? I may have made him too strong, only 0.2 off Jenson in quali, and been taken in too much by the Hamilton talk maybe.

Magnussen started a sensational 6th on his debut in melbourne, and went even better by leading the first lap of the season. He never qualified that high again, but started 7th on no less than 9 occasions! He grabbed two good 4th places mid season follwing finishing 6th ahead of Button at Bahrain, a 5th in the USA and his day of days at Spa to win, following the crazy last lap fuel crisis. What's more, with scoring in the finale while Jenson retired, this all meant he actually scored more points than his team-mate. This is unlikely, especially as I created a fairly big gap between the drivers in race pace, but it goes to show what picking up the right results on the right days while your team-mate wasn't able to, plus the effect of the double points rule, can do.

Button and Magnuseen outqualified each other 8-8. Button retired 4 times, Magnussen 3.

Interesting thoughts about midfield teams. To me one of the main questions is if any of the "standard" midfield teams can impress with reg changes and do what Lotus did in 2012 - break clear of the midfield and become a remote front-runner.

If we are trying to predict the WCC positions of midfield teams, it is interesting to see that at least during the last 5 years (2009, since the last major reg overhaul) their positions have not fluctuated much. So something must change massively for any of them to dramatically change their fortunes now.

Force India - 6th, 7th, 6th, 7th, 9th.
Looking at their design team, I haven't heard about major changes (in the way for instance Lotus has collapsed), but they seem to have a solid and consistent base. Based on predictions most likely to pull above their and threaten top teams combined with the rumoured Mercedes engine advantage.

In my book Hülkenberg is certainly most likely to put in some inspiring results from the midfield, much like he did in 2012 and 2013 as long as the car is decent enough. But are these results just going to be „good upper midfield results“ like in early 2013 (i.e di Resta was fourth in Bahrain) or they can hit the ground running with new regs? As said, based on evidence so far, the design team doesn't give a notably different vibe compared to previous seasons. And after all, in the end all-around "package" counts, not so much if your engine has ~20hp more. In 1994 Ligier had Renault factory engines, yet were nowhere except at Hockenheim.

Sauber – 7th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 6th
They started the 2009-13 era as a BMW Sauber factory entry. They had a challenging transition to becoming a pure privateer coupled with financial issues, but their WCC positions haven't changed much. Their worst was 8th in 2010, when they had appalling reliability in early 2010 after switching to Ferrari engines and thus lost valuable points.

Like Lotus, the team seems to have some inherent engineering quality in the team despite loss of key people and financial struggles. I think their car can run pretty well occasionally, but I haven't seen any changes in the team that could possibly propel them to the very top though they did surprise in 2012, but were let down by both team operations (i.e strategy), pure unluck and driver inconsistency. This could hurt them again, even if the car is very fast.

Williams – 9th, 8th, 9th, 6th, 7th
Recent years have seen a gradual decline compared to where they started this era. Though the 8th in 2012 doesn't fully reflect their car, because as we remember it was very fast.

The new era is about to begin with mild optimism. New Mercedes engines. A change? In the past Williams has switched to Toyota (2007), Cosworth (2010) and Renault (2012) engines without a notable change in fortunes. Williams is a team, which is somewhat hard to predict considering their fluctuations during the last few years. They can be nowhere (2011, 2013) or have a pretty decent car (2012). However, it looks like regardless of this they are still going to be somewhere in the midfield – the question is whether in „lower“ or „upper“ midfield.

STR – 8th, 9th, 8th, 9th, 10th
Toro Rosso is a team that regardless of form fluctuations has always been in certain positions in WCC. In 2011 they had a pretty decent car, we remember Alguersuari getting a fair few 7th places in late 2011. In 2013 Ricciardo was qualifying into top 10 a lot, the hiring of chief designer James Key probably helped.

Yet regardless of whether the car is lower midfield or a strong midfielder, to me it is hard to see a significant change in WCC position fortunes. They are still a small brother of RBR and is likely to stay there. In addition to that I lost a lot of belief in Vergne during 2013 and even though he can impress at times (in the wet), he doesn't do it consistently. Kvyat could have some serious potential, but he is only 19 years old. When Vettel joined F1 and STR at the age of 19, he was actually getting outraced by Liuzzi for a portion of the year. I guess if STR is going to have a strong season, it is more likely to be in 2015, when Kvyat is already fully up to speed.

This has been the quality of these teams during the 2009-2013 regulation phase, consistently in places from 6th to 9th in WCC. The question is – what's gonna change? If anything at all?

If we compared them to previous breakthroughs, then before 2012 Lotus showed a lot of potential. They got two podiums in early 2011 and dropped backwards only after it became clear they had a flawed car design concept, which was difficult to develop. And they were getting podiums in 2010 as well.
Red Bull breakthrough in 2009 - they showed potential in 2008, when the Red Bull clone in Toro Rosso colours won a race at Monza.
Brawn/Honda - even if they didn't show much beforehand - had a huge budget before 2009 and a few inspiring signings in the personnel (i.e Brawn).

These current midfield teams have been "status quo" for five consecutive years already. None of them has a huge budget or a significant change in ownership and all leave an impression it could be the same ol' story in the new 2014 V6T regulation era as well. Only to be potentially joined by Lotus in midfield battles.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by steveaki13

Gutierrez- Didn't rate him the first two thirds of 2013, but late season he picked up and I hope he can build on that. I would like to see him do well.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by rjbetty

Esteban Gutierrez struggled most of the time last year. It was a little unfair a he himself said he wasn't ready for F1 just yet. He was shoehorned in by the team to please the sponsors. I remember my second ever copy of Autosport; it wa the 1998 season review edition. In it, Martin Brundle ranked all 23 (including Jos) drivers (and he did it in his usual style - basically whoever won or was at the front got the highest places while those further back got lower places, seemingly without much thought that some drivers had much worse cars - though he did rank Takagi 12th!) Anyway, he said for Esteban Tuero "someone did this kid a great dis-service"... by putting him in an F1 car too early.

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I wanted to make one comment about Gutiérrez.

I have to say that he didn't impress me, not at all. Several people consider him to have "improved" late in the year, but in my mind it was very much down to the improvement in car. While Gutiérrez got a few Q3 slots, Hülkenberg was qualifying into top 6 on several occasions. And the point-score tells us: Hülkenberg - 51, Gutiérrez - 6. As we remember, most of Sauber's points were scored at the end of the year, when the car was good, so Esteban was beaten thoroughly in the latter stage of the year. In my book about as badly as Rosberg beat Nakajima in 2009 or Kubica Petrov in 2010.

However, I think Gutiérrez can improve in 2014 and if we are looking for a potential "surprise" in team-mate battles, it could be the Sauber one. However, I don't think Gutiérrez is a very good driver in the making and if Sutil struggles against him, it will be more about the German not performing at his best.

Rjbetty, it is interesting you mentioned Tuero and Takagi. Just recently I watched 1998 Australian GP qualifying results. Rookie drivers - Toranosuke Takagi in the Tyrrell-Ford 13th and Esteban Tuero in the Minardi-Ford 17th, both ahead of several big teams with famous drivers. Just mindblowing! I guess if there were Internet forums back in the day, both drivers would have been considered as future WDC-s based on that single session, which was their first ever Formula One race weekend! But as we remember, the reality turned out to be rather different...

Also, in the next few GP-s another (almost) rookie Alexander Wurz finished 4th on multiple occasions - also creating a basis or hype for him to be considered a future champion. So the 1998 era didn't only start with new regulations and new team 'order', but also some driver performances were out of ordinary compared to how we view these drivers from historical point of view. So maybe some drivers can perform "out of ordinary" in early 2014 as well, either due to a very good car or other reason? And hence create unrealistic expectations.

Imagine early 2014. For some reason Sauber has a rocketship off the line. Gutiérrez finishes on the podium, while Sutil still adapts and struggles. Internet forums go mad "omg Esteban on podium, where did that come from, he is a superstar!!" :p Only for half a year to pass, things to get back to normal and hype to die down.

Oh, just remembering - that's how Petrov started 2011...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rjbetty

Grand Prix 2 Season Conclusions

And here finally is the qualifying and race performances I predicted for the drivers and entered into the game, which resulted in the season I had.

Qualifying
1.Hamilton
2.Vettel +0.08
3.Rosberg +0.10
4.Ricciardo +0.38
5.Alonso +0.60
6.Raikkonen +0.76
7.Button +1.10
8.Magnussen +1.32
9.Grosjean +1.67
10.Hulkenberg +1.74
11.Perez +1.85
12.Maldonado +1.90
13.Bottas +2.15
14.Massa +2.20
15.Sutil +2.33
16.Vergne +2.37
17.Gutierrez +2.74
18.Kvyat +2.78
19.Kobayashi +4.12
20.van der Garde +4.12
21.Bianchi +4.58
22.Chilton +5.06

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When I first looked at this data, 2007 sprung to my mind. Two or three teams above others and behind them a very tight midfield with Renault (here McLaren) slightly above the rest.

Regarding qualifying predictions - I think over a full season both Magnussen and Kvyat can perhaps even match/beat their team-mates, who are not known as quali specialists. But both Button and Vergne are likely to perform better in the race than in quali relative to their team-mates. However, it is still hard to rate particularly Magnussen and it is easy to get carried away with the hype - after all before him McLaren rated Pérez highly, or Jackie Stewart rated Kevin's dad Jan highly!

Alonso v Räikkönen is interesting. The quali speed of both drivers has been questioned. It will be interesting to see, how it pans out in reality. Also for years Ferrari has been designing cars, which are stronger in race trim than over a lap. Regardless of all the new regulations, I don't see evidence for this to change. So it could be an adequate view that over a full year Ferrari qualifies behind both Mercedes and Red Bull on average and has to make their way back on Sundays.

Bottas v Massa is also interesting, because for years Massa's forte has been quali rather than race. If Bottas can show well against Massa particularly on single-lap pace, it will reflect well on him.

Maldonado is an odd one. He was very and very fast in 2012 in qualifying. Also in late 2011 against Barrichello. But not so much in 2013. However, Grosjean has proved himself to be good over a single lap, compared to Räikkönen at least. On average Grosjean seems favourite, but not by a big margin and I think when we approach single race weekends, you never know, what is going to happen, because these drivers can be unpredictable.:)

Thank you for your interesting thoughts steveaki and jens.

Yeah I kinda agree about Gutierrez but I do like him. I remember the insider consensus around 2011 or so was that Gutierrez was good, but not quite as much as Perez. He does have potential to be a good but not great F1 driver, good enough to keep a place in F1.

There have been a lot of examples of drivers looking rather unconvincing in their first season, only to go on to be markedly stronger the next one. I can't think of any examples though...!

Just before I came on here, I was very encouraged to read this

http://www.planetf1.com/driver/18227/91 ... ting-mode-

The difference in his attitude compared to 12 months ago is marked. Last year, he seemed nervous, unprepared and unsure of himself - he said himself he didn't feel ready for F1 and It was indeed a difficult slog for him. But now, he is much more confident. His honest comments last year cause me to believe this isn't just swagger now and he is in a much better place this time round. Though he is no future WDC, if he is prepared, I think he can give Sutil something to think about in qualifying, and may impress here. His "reeeeeace peaace" (Coulthard) may still need a little work though. I predict that over the season, he will be 0.3sec behind Sutil, which would be quite good.

Kvyat and Magnussen are really hard to judge. With Kevin, I understand he hadn't actually driven the car that much, had a season of preparation? Therefore, it may be hard to see how he can be totally on Button's pace. If he has little experience of driving the car before the season, it will surely still take time to really get up to speed, which would result in an increased gap to Button. If he had done loads of testing, then I believe he can match and beat Jenson in quali. Whatever happens, I expect Jenson to pull ahead in races as that's his forte.

I don't know how good Kvyat is and how ready he is. Da Costa seemed more ready, but Toro Rosso have seemed to prefer someone who they felt had more raw potential even though the actual performance they are ready to deliver may be less for now. Vergne is still a good driver and is now in his 3rd year, so I don't know if Kvyat can match him for pace in his first season. I also don't know if Kvyat will be better in races or qualifying. Vergne has to get his act together and not be like Heidfeld in 2003 regarding Ricciardo when Kimi was doing well at McLaren. I have absolutely no doubt that a failure to shine, not just be sufficient, will result in Vergne's sacking at the end of the year. If that's the case, I can't see how he would continue in F1, so he simply must pull out all the stops and deal with the Ricciardo issues.

As for Maldonado, I gave him a gap behind Grosjean as I feel that he will be demotivated by the car probably not being a world beater, and the big step up he was hoping, especially if Williams improve when he's now gone. If he drives like 2012 then I say he would be close with Romain, but as it is, I can't see him giving his absolute best fighting for 10th-14th places if that's how it turns out. This will be more the case with Eric Bouiller gone. I feel Bouiller is underrated by fans, and if there was any chance of someone being able to nurture Maldonado, he would have been the one to do it. I don't think Gerard Lopez is the guy to invest a lot in him, meaning Maldonado will be rather on his own and be more likely to self-destruct than succeed.


Williams - Mercedes season preview
Well that was a bit of a shocker last year wasn't it? Few teams have fluctuated as much as Williams in recent years. But happily, it looks like that wherever they are in 2014, it should be a better season this time round. Bottas is more experienced and in Massa they have someone who may not be the best or at his best, but in absolute terms can still perform at a reasonable level - the worst case scenario being about the same level as Sutil I think.

I gave Bottas only slightly more performance in races compared to Massa in the game, as I noticed that though Valtteri outqualified Maldonado 12-7 last year, Pastor was generally equal or a bit better in races (and Pastor is himself more of a qualifying specialist). My early impression is that Bottas is a qualifying specialist. Consider he should really have started 5th at Austin last year, and his eventual 8th place would actually be a drop down (even though it was an incredible result). So even though the gap I gave from Massa in races isn't too much, it was still a little more than in qualifying.

Based on historical examples, I feel Felipe will take more of a steady backseat role while Bottas puts in the headline performances, rather than Massa being rejuvenated and doing brilliantly. Especially since that despite his experience, Massa is the newcomer settling in and getting used to things.

Good news as Pat Symonds has joined. He recently said that the new Williams is a definite improvement aerodynamically over the 2013 car. So it's looking pretty good. Also factor in that at least one team is expected to drop back (Lotus) and one or two others could struggle, and suddenly there is a good chance that Williams could really be in the hunt for 6th in the WCC. Actually, if the car is really that decent, the drivers should be good enough that they may give fellow Mercedes engined team Force India a good run for their money. But I am more cautious than this, though Williams may be one to spring a mild surprise again this year, even if they don't quite reach 2012 levels.

I wondered if the differences we have seen in the cars designs thus far would have much of an impact on the performances of the cars and thus predictions.

We seem to have such a difference in styles and appearances. So far no two have been the same. However as Jens mentioned earlier the last time we have such differences between cars was 2009 and yet from 1st - 20th was probably the smallest time gap in F1 history.

I suppose more of the difference this year will be the engines. Afterall the engine makers may have quite different approaches to the Turbo's.

I think the two things combined may actually make the time gaps extend this season. We will see I suppose.

Yah, I'm sure the time gaps will increase over the season.

But I keep forgetting that the blown diffuser stuff is basically gone. This seemed to be the main culprit in ruining the 2011 and 2013 seasons, creating big gaps between the haves and have-nots. It's no co-incidence that 2012 was the closest season ever (top 15 within 1 sec on average over the season!) - that was the year the blown diffuser was banned, though it's effects were able to be replicated causing the team who mastered it to open out a big gap, and others to fall behind as they struggled to understand the concept (Williams).

But with it gone again, this should in theory cause gaps to close, but it depends on everything else. Maybe the start of the season could actually be very close, but I am certain, as people are saying, that there will be a development war like never seen. Though happily, it seems there may not be able to be huge differences (or any difference) between works and customer engines, the integration of those engines with the works' chassis will certainly open out a gap for the top teams as the season unfolds.

Also, exhaust blowing was known to be a cornerstone of Sebastian Vettel's success and performance in recent years. How will he now do without it? Maybe this could bring Ricciardo closer as it did Webber. But then again, Seb will now be stronger than in 2012, and I am thinking that while one door has now been closed, another 10 windows might open!

Consider that Mark Hughes in particular explained that it wasn't that the exhaust blowing just happened to fall into Seb's way of driving; but it was Vettel who diligently applied himself and learned and adapted his driving to the exhaust blowing. This could mean that whatever new challenges are ahead, Vettel will simply just master these new ones better than anyone else instead, and this would replace the advantage he had (worked for) through exhaust blowing.

It was Peter Sauber who said a few years ago that Vettel was brighter more than even Alonso, in the way he can apply himself to things. He seems to actually be the best out there. A few other people have recently said these new rules will suit Sebastian to the ground. Could be ominous.

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Originally Posted by rjbetty

As for Maldonado, I gave him a gap behind Grosjean as I feel that he will be demotivated by the car probably not being a world beater, and the big step up he was hoping, especially if Williams improve when he's now gone. If he drives like 2012 then I say he would be close with Romain, but as it is, I can't see him giving his absolute best fighting for 10th-14th places if that's how it turns out. This will be more the case with Eric Bouiller gone. I feel Bouiller is underrated by fans, and if there was any chance of someone being able to nurture Maldonado, he would have been the one to do it. I don't think Gerard Lopez is the guy to invest a lot in him, meaning Maldonado will be rather on his own and be more likely to self-destruct than succeed.

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The problem I see here is that you analyze the battle only from Maldonado aspect.

But let's take another look. Maldonado has already been used to driving crap cars (2011, 2013). Grosjean became very consistent and impressive in late 2013 in a fast car, but it is yet to be seen, how does he react if the car is rubbish. Because the Lotus of 2012-13 have been good. Perhaps Grosjean could be a bit like Button, who sort of disappears, when the car is not to his liking/good? After all, Grosjean was struggling pretty much in early 2013 too, when there was something about the car he wasn't comfortable about. Also Boullier has left, who was a bit of a mentor to Grosjean, so it is yet to be seen, how does it affect him.

Remember, how clearly Button beat Barrichello in Honda in 2006, everyone thought Barrichello was past his prime. Yet in the first half of 2007 in a rubbish car Barrichello suddenly had an upper hand.

Now I have to say I have not seen enough of Maldonado or Grosjean to draw certain conclusions, how comfortable would each driver feel in certain cars. But these have been things I have been pondering about.

Maldonado demotivated in a bad car? How about Grosjean, who got used to a regular-podium car in late 2013 only to drive a dog of a car around the tracks the very next year? When it comes to motivation, I don't see Grosjean having an 'advantage' so-to-speak in this battle. Motivation is a very interesting aspect to analyze about a driver. Usually unmotivation arises, when a person feels that he can't keep going in the same way and needs a change for the future. And if the car is rubbish and team finances still not sorted out, then sure enough - BOTH drivers would at least feel unmotivated at Lotus and would be looking for a new team.

Heck, now that I think about it, Maldonado could possibly have even more motivation. After all, he would still be new to the team and would firstly have to learn about the team and hope that perhaps things work out even if it is bad right now. After all, everything new (also a new team) is at least a little bit exciting, because it is a new experience. However, Grosjean has seen much better days at Lotus and it would be pretty devastating for him. Not so much for Maldo, who has seen it all at the lower midfield. Williams beating Lotus could hurt him - or spur him to fight more aggressively against them to prove his decision to leave was right.

Of course a young up-and-coming youngster would feel motivated in a bad car too, because he is still a nobody with a lot to prove - he has a different perspective. But I feel neither Maldonado nor Grosjean are now in such stage in their careers, where they have anything to prove in the middle or back-end of the field.

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Originally Posted by steveaki13

I wondered if the differences we have seen in the cars designs thus far would have much of an impact on the performances of the cars and thus predictions.

We seem to have such a difference in styles and appearances. So far no two have been the same. However as Jens mentioned earlier the last time we have such differences between cars was 2009 and yet from 1st - 20th was probably the smallest time gap in F1 history.

I suppose more of the difference this year will be the engines. Afterall the engine makers may have quite different approaches to the Turbo's.

I think the two things combined may actually make the time gaps extend this season. We will see I suppose.

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Having touched this matter before, I have reached a conclusion that the difference in "time gaps" is related to depth of teams themselves, not regulation changes. Let's recall 1992, 1996, 2002, 2011. Of course almost every year there are at least some rule changes, but before those seasons there wasn't really anything radical. Yet we saw a team or a handful of teams finding new avenues in car development, which enabled to pull them very clear of the rest of the field, resulting in big gaps.

So what kind of effect does the rule change have? I have concluded that while the depth of the engineering of a team will always be the main factor, it can influence particularly the first half of the season and highlight, who has been better prepared for the season. Because inherently rules can suit some teams better than others. But the advantage is short-lived, because all teams are professional enough to fight back - just for some it may take more time to cut through the initial difficulties.

Let's take 1994. Williams was perhaps the most complete team in engineering depth at the time, but they weren't very comfortable to start the season, because for the team rule changes were most radical. Because their car was most innovative in 1993, so for them the changes of abandoning all the high-tech stuff had deepest influence. Of course they still came back, improved and won WCC in the end. Of course the car was never bad, otherwise Senna couldn't have taken pole positions. But it didn't have the dominant edge of 1993, where they could lap 2s per lap faster than anybody else.

I think McLaren-Mercedes was always going to be a top team based on how they were coming along in late 1990s regardless of rule changes. However, what the 1998 changes gave for them was an opportunity to be not only "one of the top teams", but be well above in the initial phase of the season, lapping everyone in Australia. Also helped by Bridgestone a lot, who adapted very well to grooved tyres. However, the gaps closed. Other companies are competent too and once they develop through the initial challenges, they will be up there. Ferrari was competing with McLaren late in the season.

So what could 2014 give? For half a season someone could have an advantage, who for some reason has had a better preparation platform for new regulations. Based on rumours it could be Mercedes. Renault and Ferrari are of course competent enough and based on evidence so far Renault turbo could have some important strengths. But it could take just a little time, before they can maximize on their strengths and potential properly. Just like we saw in 1994 and 1998. So for half a year Mercedes-powered teams could enjoy a relative advantage.

Just a guess. It could be the other way around. Fuel-saving is so important that the fuel efficient Renault has an advantage for half a year before others catch up. Or there is something about chassis development that some teams could find easier to deal with early in the season. We'll find out.