I believe the figure (for the US at least) is in the trillions easilyQuote:
Originally Posted by RS
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I believe the figure (for the US at least) is in the trillions easilyQuote:
Originally Posted by RS
Rally drivers are fighting against coronavirus.
Davide Medici is helping to produce 150,000 facemasks per day. Zelindo Melegari has made a financial donation to the local hospital in Reggio Emilia:
https://www.fiaerc.com/erc-drivers-m...fort-in-italy/
Kajetanowicz is supporting a campaign to help his local community in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic:
https://www.fiaerc.com/three-time-er...irus-pandemic/
It's so annoying how they keep saying Italy, Spain and now the USA have more cases and deaths than China had. The official death figures from China are a blatant lie.
Crematoria and morgue workers just in Wuhan estimate the number of deaths in the city as 46,000 !
Even if so it doesn't change much. All other countries following China had weeks or even months to prepare themselves and nobody did anything. It's our own arrogant ignorance which brought us into this shit we are in.
It was tough on northern Italy which got the virus first from Chinese tourisits. They seemed to.lockdown pretty quick but it still took hold.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirek
The UK found the first cases in two Chinese students and they were quickly isolated so didnt spread it here.
Then UK citizens flown back from China were quarantined for two weeks and didnt spread it.
The big mistake was allowing 1000's of ski tourists to come back home from N.Italy unchecked.
No, Italy was doing nothing for way too long just like many other countries. Moreover it's not clear how it got there. Some say the Italian patient 0 actually caught it in Germany.
In the end it doesn't matter because in the global world it is inevitable that it gets everywhere sooner or later. Even at the time when it started in China there were dozens of thousands of Europeans and Americans in China and since around 3/4 of the infected people have no symptoms, it is sure that some of them brought it to their countries even without any Chinese tourists.
The point however is that everybody could see what an animal it is. Since January the internet was flooded with videos and photos from Wuhan with people dying in the hospital corridors or on the streets. We have had countless warnings since then. Despite that why only countries like Singapore or Vietnam were able to act immediately and prevent the spread and basically all western world just acted like that was not our business? Why even when it started we were listening bullshit talks about just a flu or later about the need for herd immunity at any cost? Why nobody had supplies of medical stuff prepared? This is what people shall ask their governments.
Now imagine what if China was still in total chaos (as it sure would be if there were not the brutal measures they introduced). Where would we all get the medical supplies from? That's another question to ask - why do we import all essential stuff from a country with which we often like to pretend being at war (that applies especially to US)? What are we going to do if this country actually goes into a war with us? What if it is simply just incapacitated by an epidemy? Hmm?
You should be in charge, you always have the answer to everything. You know how everything should be done and its always so simple.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirek
Every Western government should be knocking on your door and using your genius.
Eddie, some men have more brainpower. He has not said anything wrong and I fully agree with him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie WRC
Your outburst does not paint a better picture of you, sometimes is better to learn from others, specially if they are smarter than you, that could be beneficial.
Now don't be an a#%e and learn from it!
Sent from my GM1913 using Tapatalk
I certainly prefer to discuss objective fact and arguments instead of personal attacks because that is the only way to learn for the future and not to repeat the same mistakes we already did. Nowhere it's written that this is the last such situation in our life. It may come again and likely it will. So if we are not prepared now, we shall be prepared at least next time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie WRC
This is a bit too dramatic, to make move more dramatic. I was also analyzing this and I found that number of deaths by Virus in Wuhan was likely around 17-19k. You know, everything was locked down for two months. people tend to die every day and they must be placed somewhere. And if you have such situation, you burn them all. So, in two months period there should be natural deaths approximately 25k people (+/-1k). if there was 46 k, we had confirmed 3 k, we should get 46k-3k-25k(+/-1k)= 17-19 k. So, people likely infected was likely 1.7 -1.9 million. Mortality rate might be around 1%. It is stil hard to calculate, but it seems that it is the case with cruise ships where you have controlled environment and no political "hiding."Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie WRC
So, for US, I calculated that number of dead people by the end of today should be 5500 and by 15th of April, ca 240 k. Lets see, luckily they are slightly behind the schedule.
The problem with this flue is very easy to get infected and very hidden transmission, that means number of infected people is high and worst cases all need intensive care (some say 10%, but it is not clear yet, because noone knows exact number of infected people, and with natural progression, most of the countries do not have the capacity to put so many people in intensive care in one month or so. 1% might look small number. But lets take Italy, you have over 60 million people, that means, can have 600 000 people dead and upt to 6 million in intensive care? Probably the 10% is smaller, but even if it is like 5%, it is still 3 million people.
There was an area in Moravia (close to Barum rally area) which was under total lockdown for some time due to a very large number of uncontrollable contacts with infected persons (which probably ignored traveler quarantine). This total lockdown was now lifted because the officials claim the infected and their contacts are now being tracked. Why I'm writing this is that they will do a 100% testing of all people in the area in next few days.
Also a 5000 thousand random sample of people with no symptoms will be tested next week in Prague to see the percentage of infected among the seamingly healthy population. I will give You the results when they are published.
By the way according to the statistical models used by our health ministry the R0 number at the beginning of the epidemy here without any social distancing measures was 2,64. They claim that at the moment it is down to roughly 1,1-1,3. Of course it's developing situation so the number have to be taken with a grain of salt.
1.1 is basically very, very good result. Some call it almost ideal. So, keeping the contacts minimal, virus is moving in closed "system" (family, etc.) and at some point, due to the "lack of clients" its starts to disappear. I would be very interested to hear about these stats. We have Saaremaa Island, at the moment, proved cases are nearly 90 cases per 10 000 people. And they are not testing everyone and if virus is running in family, these are not taken into account. realistically, it means that almost every 100th person has virus. And if we read studdies that 15-20 % cases are normally discovered, we can say that at least every 20th person in the island has or has had virus. that means, in every bus you have 2, in every ferry you have 10 etc. They have similar plan there as well that maybe in the future they do some test to see who has resistance for the virus.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirek
An interesting study of the transmission is here. Even if the absolute numbers may be disputed the general message about the measures and their impact is interesting. Especially the role of time of response/application of the measures: https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb6105
Of course with the first country it is difficult to set the day 1 since it takes time to find out that something new is happening but on the other hand in the other countries the first detected case also wasn't the real number 1 I guess. Anyway it's important to note that China introduced brutal measures at day 23 while US is at day 71 now and till day 60 or so they did exactly nothing. Even now the measures are nowhere close to the level of Chinese ones (quite impossible in the western world to be honest). UK is now in day 64. Here in CZ the social distancing measures were applied starting from day 13 (getting stricted during the following days).
there is nice chart to compare some countries.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirek
https://scontent.fskg1-2.fna.fbcdn.n...c2&oe=5EA9B123
The governor of Georgia claimed yesterday he didn't know it could be transmitted asymptomatically "until 24 hours ago."
With that kind of stunning ignorance or dishonesty the US is in for a rough time. Plenty of other governors were or still are refusing to take any steps, and the federal government under Trump is not taking a lead or responsibility for coordinating a national response unless it can be cast as a self-congratulatory sound bite for TV.
Blaming it on ski tourists coming back is naivety at its finest when it comes to the UK.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie WRC
For months and months there have been dozens of flights EVERY DAY in the UK from all parts of the world already affected by the virus with no checks or even advice given out.
Indeed, it's still the case now! There have been no proactive attempts to stop the movement of people into the UK, other than the natural attrition of flights because the airlines are grounding their fleets....
You can call me naïve, but I do think that the best chance to get over this nigthmare will come from the US, despite those in government. No other country has the biotech resources to get a vaccine ASAP and develop new drugs meanwhile. Fingers crossed!Quote:
Originally Posted by Gregor-y
Last night the BBC News called Italy the 'epicentre of the outbreak in Europe' and it is clearly the place where the worst and largest outbreak began.Quote:
Originally Posted by rallyfiend
Flights out of China and the Far East were the first to be reduced and then stopped.
Returnees from N.Italy were in large numbers. They may not be the only source of UK infections but are surely the largest.
That's just not at all true.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie WRC
There have been commercial flights to and from China, Iran, Italy etc up until last week. And with no screening of any kind.
Don't confuse British Airways stopping their flights with flights being stopped...
That's not what I read. Flights have been severely restricted or stopped for some time.Quote:
Originally Posted by rallyfiend
5th Feb: The British man who got his family on 'last available Air China flight to UK' said:
"What about British nationals who need help to arrange a flight. Airlines are cancelling fights by the hour. Most flights from China to the UK are going to be cancelled. So if they (FO) are asking British nationals to urgently leave China, well if someone is in Beijing or Shanghai and they can't get a flight back to the UK, how do they expect the British nationals to leave China, how?"
Plus the other issue is the EU didnt do the same, so people flew from China into Europe then on to the UK. Italy banned all flights in from China but this caused deep irritation among other EU states who wanted to coordinate a 'joint response' and meanwhile arrivals continued.
Eddie, You keep confusing travel ban with flights cancelations by the airlines. That is two different things. There is no travel ban issued by UK government in place and AFAIK never was.
Watch this and make up your own mind what was the likely source of the virus...
https://youtu.be/Gdd7dtDaYmM
Not really the most reliable sourceQuote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie WRC
Compared with what ? The Chinese account that states only 3000 deaths etc ?Quote:
Originally Posted by AnttiL
its a part of big game now - blame china, stir up rumours, ask for money from china because our economy doomed and so on... world will change...
not that Wikipedia is the most reliable source either but:Quote:
Originally Posted by AnttiL
The Epoch Times is a multi-language newspaper[2] founded in 2000 by John Tang and a group of Chinese Americans associated with the Falun Gong spiritual movement.[3]
Though the newspaper is known for general interest topics with a focus on news about China and its human rights issues, it has become known for its support of U.S. President Donald Trump and favorable coverage of far-right politicians in Europe; a 2019 report showed it to be the second-largest funder of pro-Trump Facebook advertising after the Trump campaign.[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] The newspaper is part of the Epoch Media Group, which also operates New Tang Dynasty Television (NTD).[7] The group's news sites and YouTube channels have spread conspiracy theories such as QAnon and anti-vaccinationpropaganda.[7][12][13]
Yes, the Epoch times are about as reliable as the Chinese state propaganda, just on the other side of the barricade. Let's wait for something more reliable.
I just read that during March some 3,1 million people travelled through Heathrow alone (50% of normal number) with no health check, no mandatory quarantine and no restrictions at all. Still today around 15 thousand people arrive from all over the world every day and there is still no mandatory quarantine for them or any other check done. The flights are not restricted, you can check the arrival board yourself to see that planes keep coming from Italy, Spain or USA every day.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie WRC
Where are the facilities in the UK that could look after and isolate that many numbers of people for a 14 day quarantine period?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirek
There is no need to invent a wheel when it works in nearly all other counties. Do it the same way as you do with the people who were in contact with infected people - quarantine them at home (only a minority of countries use special quarantine facilities).Quote:
Originally Posted by Mk2 RS2000
I think that a very interesting sample of the free spread in a very healthy and strong population can be abserved on the Charles de Gaule aircraft carrier. Currently 1081 sailors are positive which is already one half of the crew. Only one of them had to be hospitalized though.
At Roosvelt air carrier already one died.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirek
Yes but what I wanted to point out is that at the young and strong population very small percentage has any problems and far majority may not even have any symptoms at all.
An interesting fact from the Roosevelt is as well that 60% of the infected never showed any symptoms at all, so this probably means the actual amount of infected people is alot bigger than currently reported worldwide.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirek
Source https://www.businessinsider.com/test...20-4?r=US&IR=T
In the words of our leading epidemiologist what is being published is a festival of incorrect numbers and he's most likely right. I think the aircraft carriers are a good example because the crew is all tested. In the normal population every country tests differently and some countries do testing only with clearly ill people. At some point Spain had a ratio of around 0,4 of the total number of infected people against the total number of tests which, if we consider repeated tests, meant they could not test much more people than those ill ones. I am not saying this ratio gives the whole picture but it's for sure an interesting thing to see because it shows how much the countries test in relation to the virus spread in the population.Quote:
Originally Posted by AMSS
Strangely at the beginning there was a discussion here about Finland/Russia and the lack of testing in Russia. Now however Russia has 2nd highest total number of tests done after US (no numbers for China) and the ratio of infected people against the number of tests is very low 0,02 (0,08 for Germany; 0,13 for Italy; 0,18 for Sweden; 0,19 for US; 0,20 for Spain; 0,25 for UK... 0,72 for Algeria).
Have you heard that Roberto Angiolini, who headed Jolly Club, died from complications of COVID-19?
https://www.dirtfish.com/archive/rem...rto-angiolini/
Sad to hear. Very interesting little interview with Carlos about the decision to go to Lancia; good to read a little history of Jolly Club as well, such an interesting time in the sport. Their cars always looked great as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarek Z
There is a big difference between self isolation within your small group of people in your home and being quarantined as an individual in a secured facility. Currently should you enter NZ from overseas you are quarantined for 14 days, once clear from there then you are permitted to enter self isolation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirek
Do not take Russian test number seriously :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirek
There have been already two studies with random selection of people. in Netherlands, it revealed that mortality rate is ca 0.63 % and in Denmark, it was around 0.19, it depends on how much infection reaches to old people and if all more serious cases are medically treated. So, in general, if you take countries where medical system has not reached to its limits yet, you can use number of deaths and use these %-es. If you know background of how much the virus has reached to old people, you can choose which coefficient is more realistic. So, for BEL we should get number between 1-2 million, in NED, around 1 million, in CZ it can be between 80-90k. In Sweden, probably over 700k. In Germany, this number is probably around 2 million. This is just a theoretical number based on couple of surveys. if we use rough estimate as 0.5%, then we should get that something 30-40 million people have been infected and of course, many of them are OK already. So, with such numbers, it is quite easy for virus to spread. in many countries this number is close to 5%, which is every 30th person.. like two persons in bus, ten persons in larger airplane etc.
Do you take the numbers from other countries seriously then?
For example in Belgium a lot of deaths are from retirement homes, I remember earlier this week some 280 were from retirement homes, while only 31 of them were confirmed corona cases, also people who die from heart attacked are often taken into statistics... In some other countries on the contrary they don't count those people in care centers at all. The number of new confirmed cases is probably even farther off the realistic number, not only is the number of tests a big question mark, there's also the people who they test on, and te reliability of those tests...
A lot of numbers are being published, but imo they shouldn't be taken as facts, as all of them are incorrect in one or another way.