Originally Posted by Mickey T
i'm not surprised and i don't know why anybody else is, either.
max wouldn't have called the vote if he didn't absolutely know he would win it.
as i predicted a couple of weeks ago on the other Mosley-related thread, max won the vote on the strength of the unrepresentative FIA voting structure and the big clubs from the big countries will bugger off and form their own organisation, leaving max until the end of his term in 2009 to spend McLaren's $100 mill on his supporting countries.
amongst the countries likely to have voted against mosley - because their federations signed official letters demanding his resignation - include (as mentioned by Knock-On a while back):
USA (AAA and AATA),
Singapore (AAS),
Germany (ADAC),
Finland, (AL),
Canada (CAA),
Brazil (CCB),
Denmark (FDM),
France (FFA),
India (FIAA),
Japan (JAF),
the Netherlands (KNAC),
Sweden (M),
Hungary (MAK),
Israel (MEMSI),
Austria (OEMTC),
Spain (RACC and RACE),
Belgium (TCB)
Switzerland (TCS),
Russia.
Bernie will side with the breakaway, because if you add Monaco, you've got a solid championship base already.
Singapore, Germany, Hungary, Spain, Belgium, Canada, Brazil and Japan already hosting a Grand Prix (Germany and Japan are both easily and historically capable of hosting two), while Russia and India are both dead keen to get one anyway.
It's a reasonable championship already and the Muslim-dominated countries (Bahrain, Turkey and Malaysia) plus Australia and China would almost certainly come with them.
Rule out Switzerland, because by law, you cannot hold a car race there.
then, at the end of 2009, mosley will depart. he will not seek another term because, with the bigger clubs gone, their earning power will be gone as well, and so will everything inside the cash tin in the FIA's headquarters. And why would max want to be looking at an empty biscuit tin? his successor can clean that mess up.
While F1 may find its groove without the FIA, the World Rally Championship and the WTCC have less certain futures, neither of them being commercially strong enough to wander off on their own, neither of them being commercially strong enough to warrant the attentions of B Ecclestone.
Look for these two sports, in particular, to become the outlet for some of the voting payoffs, with people from countries you've never heard of being appointed stewards and new events in countries loyal to max.
I'd also like to see somebody auditing airfares and accommodation costs from the FIA (though they've learned a thing or two off the IOC, so it'll be a few layers deep), because this is another way the payoff will happen.
(and, ioan, china and india have a fraction of the cars in the US or the UK, for that matter, and a fraction of the licenced drivers, so they would not have a 4-1 voting advantage over the US. it's the other way around, and then some.)
it's a sad, predictable day. we stand on the brink of a schism the likes of which the sport we all love has never seen.
Regardless of what anybody thinks about privacy issues and whether somebody's personal life should be aired in public, the fact remains that up until this afternoon, only one man could have stopped this from happening.
Cometh the hour, cometh the man. And he didn't.
the only conclusion you can draw from it is that a man with a deep love of the sport (and the rest of the FIA's responsibilities) could have, for the sake of the sport, averted the worst yet to come.
The FIA is not just motorsport and max knows (and if i knew they would break away two weeks ago, he surely did) that without the money from the bigger countries, any FIA road-safety initiatives will not be seen through, either.
yet he still placed his pride above the that which he purports to love and feel responsible for.
Karma, where art thou?