There are more factors but the most important one (especially whe you count the whole stage) is the power you can take away from the brakes, i.e with normal brakes the heat you can dissipate. Recuperation takes away huge amount of heat.
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"Can do" - is able to run or finish.
Nothing about speed.
You know that 1990 group A car would get beaten by 1986 group B car. 2013 Fiesta WRC would get beaten by 2008 Focus WRC on most rallies etc.
Ironically the epic looking and sounding group B car would also get beaten by even WRC car from 2003 on most rallies due to much better suspension and traction.
Speed does only matter inside own class, spectacle matters more. In terms of EVs the car could be more spectacular out of corners especially slow corners but will obviously lose time in faster corners and braking. (Kinda exact opposite of an S2000).
If EV rally car can deliver more spectacle than current Rally2 it won't matter if its only marginally faster. Some 0,5-1s/km faster than current Rally2 should be possible even by your rough numbers.
To make Rally EV spectacular it needs to have much more power even at the expense of much more weight. Not be "similar" to petrol cars. So more like the NitroRX cars than the 360 hp RX2e cars.
With regards to the numbers you don't seem to take away the extra weight of the petrol engine as well as some related bits like center diff and much bigger gearbox. But if we instead assume a bigger battery the weight difference would likely be about the same.
For comparison current Taycan and Ioniq 5N will do over 50 km (over 2 laps) at Nurburgring at max push before the batteries overheat with battery capacity to spare. In a racing car cooling could obviously be increased.
Manufacturers as well as public try to extrapolate what people will buy and manus will make in 10 years based on a few months of sales differences.
That can bring totally crazy results both ways. Some people (often outside of automotive) predicted that everyone will only buy EVs in 5-10 years. Similarly some people (often those that have 0 EV experience) predict that there won't be any EVs in 5-10 years.
The result will be somewhere in between. If regulations stay about the same I expect something like 50/50 for BEV vs others (incl Hybrids) in Europe in 10 years. Here in Norway it's 80/20 for quite some time now and I don't see it changing more than 5-10 percent either way.
What is mentioned in the Dirtfish article is that right now (last 3 months) EV sales globally have slowed down, so some manus found out that they might not have anything (new) to offer outside of EVs in the very near future and are re-routing some money to other drivetrains. Whether that is temporary fix or permanent is close to impossible to predict at the moment.
Within 10 years thereīs not much EVīs sold at all.
Hydrogen engines will rather rule.
Capito's against pure EV in rallying (mostly due to no noise)...
https://dirtfish.com/rally/wrc/capit...electric-cars/
Well, in a climate that it is in norway and sweden, i doubt hydrogen is the solution.
Its steam that comes out, you don't need much fantasy to understand how 20.000 cars in the morning and the temperature is below 0 will "adjust" the griplevel on the road.
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With current technology of batteries, charging, infrastructure etc, it is nonsense for EV to be majority on the market. This is very simple. If the technology will change or there will be big development, then we can talk about changes... And yes, I have also experience with hybrids and electric cars. And I hate them :)
One of my favorite quotes:
"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."
"Current technology" is a notable part of the discussion. EV sold today has basically the same technology as 10 years ago... except it evolved massively.
Yes there has not be a massive step in range/charging, but there have been lots of tiny steps. Together these added up so that nowadays mainstream cars have 500 km real range in summer and some 400 in winter (real winter, not 1 week of snow and barely below zero) and charge half the battery in under 15 mins.
The only real limit for EVs becoming mainstream is the price. The high prices are partly caused by manufacturers themselves cause they all started with big SUVs with lots of power that they could make good margins on.
Found a graph for you to explain while I have issues with people living in CZ explaining how EVs don't work:
https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/e...e-vedou-244690
CZ with 3% EV sales in 2023 (3rd lowest in EU, though the two last have 2.9 and 2.7% which is basically the same). Norway is not on the chart cause it is not in EU, but the rate is over 80% for some time. (The rate of EVs to total number of vehicles on the road is over 25% and increasing)
Yes EVs are comparably cheaper in Norway due to the tax system, which removes the price issue. (Though in practice it mostly means people buy better cars than they did before for the same price.)
Still it doesn't change that it can be used to see if all the other EV "issues" are a big problem....and they aren't.