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Red bull will be back, take it for granted. Two month, thats what it takes for Renualt to be on top of the game again. The rumour say so. I would like my driver Kimi stay on top with his lump behind his back but I have no illusions. Kimi has to fight with Seb hard, thats from the second run in the championchip.
Fight for the WDC with Seb? I think you are jumping the gun just a tad. Even if Red Bull/Seb are able to run the show again, Kimi will have to beat a rather formidable tea mate 1st, not a foregone conclusion in my book. I strongly suspect Alonso will still unofficially be regarded as the established No1 at Ferrari and we all know what that means.. "Kimi.. Fernando is..........." Kimi won't listen then fireworks & possibly a team melt down will ensue. Likely result? No WDC or manufacturers championships... and/or Kimi gets sacked mid season for not playing the team game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mia 01
Word in the paddock is that it'll take 20 weeks for Renault to sort out the dog's dinner they made of their engine, so we're talking Silverstone at the earliest:Quote:
Originally Posted by Mia 01
http://thejudge13.com/2014/01/30/f1-...g-jerez-day-3/
The Judge was in Jerez and talked to sources he has within the teams and considering that, unlike any of the 'classic' F1 media, he published that Renault had built a pub, even before the first teams arrived at Jerez, I'd say that prediction is pretty accurate. The only Renault team that ran any significant number of laps was Caterham and their car has ridiculously oversized sidepods, so you don't need to be a rocket scientist to guess that Renault has a massive heat problem. Even if Newey can whip up a new car, that's a pretty useless talent if the engine is a complete bag 'o balls.
Interesting to read everyones simulations. Brilliant actually.
Betting markets have Vettel favourite which is appropriate but he's drifted a bit since the recent test.
I've taken some of the long odds for Ricciardo. He, or at least the car, is better than 40-1 .
For me its RBR Vettel/Ricciardo with Mercedes next.
BTW, did someone say that a driver couldn't win without a radio? What did he mean by that?
Will fuel be a race killer this year? Will the championship be won or lost on fuel management? :crazy:
Note to teams: Prius owners manual page one - Pump up tyres until they change colour.
dj I am sure Red Bull won't be a dead duck for long, as what tends to happen is the rules will be updated somehow, just like they got the tyres changed in 2013, then that was that for Ferrari and Lotus.
Marko will moan that it's not right that their amazing car is being held back by the engine regs. I expect a rule modfication to come, if not this season, then by 2015. And it will absolutely suit Red Bull...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whyzars
Pure speculation from me..
In addition to Rev limiting, efficiency modes may also likely include turbo boost levels as well as ERS thermal management. If that is the case one might not think that to be too much different from last year but maybe the person who made the statement you mention meant that with more and larger variables involved it could also become a lot more crucial to have more timely and accurate coms than a lap by lap pitboard could provide?
Which engine manufacturer can build the most fuel and thermally efficient engine combined with best ERS package almost goes without saying... I also strongly suspect race strategy will now become more fuel mode based than tyre management based but I'd like to hear more opinions on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by WhyBzars
After further thought, 2014 may well in fact be decided by the reliability factor alone but there are also so many new technical challenges faced by the teams that it's likely to be a rollercoaster of a season. Here is just one that has become apparent at Jerez. http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/112453 . The Bahrain test will no doubt throw up a few more..
Only one things for sure... it's gonna be interesting!
That was Rosberg. He said, you're pretty much fucked if the team radio goes out, because the engineers need to tell the drivers how slow they must go to make it to the finish with the fuel they have.Quote:
Originally Posted by Whyzars
I think this season will make last season's early races look exciting. Most of the season will be spent going deliberately slow to save fuel. Welcom to Greenpeace everybody.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zico
Yep, the technical regulations suggest racing will be like it was in 1988 when the turbos were last in with strict fuel capacity limits. What a shockingly dull season that was.Quote:
Originally Posted by dj_bytedisaster
Heyhey,
I'm doing another 2014 season on Grand Prix 2 if anyone's bored enough ;) , but this time I posted it in the simulations forum as I thought it would be too much off topic and clog up this thread maybe...
viewtopic.php?f=103&t=160296
Also,
Marussia-Ferrari Season Preview
Well I had hoped to get this done before testing but anyway... Now Marussia are a team that come in for a lot of stick with people saying they should go etc... How mean! I for one am very glad they're there. There presence shows a lot of things: 1.How professional and on a high level the teams are these days - I mean just check out all the super duper reliability these days. We have become institutionalised (is that the right word to use? Have I even spelt it right?) by it, to the point where Christian Horner and dj think it's really really bad that you might get a race or two this year where maybe only 11 cars finish! Wow what a terrible thing. I don't know how F1 survived all those years!!! We can't have engine failures making the races unpredicatble and stuff! *bangs fist in protest* [sarcasm off]
Time was when AGS could turn up with a real ragtag crew, stick the ubiquitous customer Ford in the back and off they go, and maybe even get a point (top 6 back then remember). I think now that if Marussia were operating as they are now in the 1988 season, they would have a real shot at 4th in the championship, as a guess. This is also part of the reason to the answer to why they couldn't repeat what Sauber did in their debut season, as many people do ask. I remember Peter Sauber himself saying a long time ago (might even be as far back as 1999!) that there's no way Sauber would have been able to have that sort of debut season now (meaning 99-2000 whenever he said it) as F1 had just moved on so much.
When the new teams joined, I thought they would establish themselves, and over 5 years simply move up into the midfield. I actually think now that a team does well to simply remain in the sport and not drop back at all. This is because the playing field is so uneven, absurdly so. Marussia have spent the years strengthening themselves on a relatively frugal budget. I think they've actually been very smart, living within their means and not racking up huge avoidable reckless debts. I actually don't know how anyone could have done much better in their situation, with their resources, experience and funds. I actually now think they are better run than Caterham, pound-for-pound.
The team's growing infrastructure and stability is reflected in the fact that for the first time, both drivers are retained for a consecutive season. This is great for continuity.
A big plus is the new Ferrari engine, said to have good consumption even though it may be lacking in outright power to Mercedes? I read recently that the Cosworth engine was a full 80bhp down on Mercedes - does anyone know if this is true? If so, then Marussia should be boosted by over half a second through the engine alone. The drivers will also improve with experience. And the extra cash from coming 10th last year has helped the team stay alive. They also seem to have designed a fairly decent car for where they're at. If things go well, they could nip at the heels of Toro Rossos if the Renault engines struggle, and even maybe get close to Gutierrez's Sauber on occasion. Maybe even a Lotus on a bad day if they do turn out to be struggling.
I think that Marussia will probably be ahead of Caterham on merit definitvely for the first time this season. I also like their colour scheme and the cars always look good even though I'm sure the colours could be done a better way. A team I am rooting for and feel deserve their place in F1.
I included the double points for the final round (as mich as I despise that rule) and this is what I came up with
For surprises, I think Marussia and Caterham really will profit greatly in the expected early season reliability problems, Bianchi I think will make the odd show in Q2 and Marussia will again nick 10th spot in the constructors
As for the uppper echelons, I've got Lewis Hamilton to win in a narrow 3 way fight despite having Alonso win that double points decider, Vettel comng up after a late season charge after Red Bull sort their car out but despite that, its enough for hamilton to nick the title by a mere 3 points. Ferrari may score more race wins but I think it'll be the Merc's consistency that wins the day
I think Williams will be the surprise package, Massa to steal a couple of early season podiums as Williams take advantage of the Mercedes powerplants to nick 5th int he constructors from a disappointing Lotus who are et down mainly by Maldonado
DRIVERS CHAMPIONSHIP
1. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes ................ 296pts (4 wins)
2. Fernando Alonso - Ferrari ................ 293pts (6 wins)
3. Sebastian Vettel - Red Bull ................ 289pts (4 wins)
4. Kimi Raikkonen - Ferrari ................ 171pts (2 wins)
5. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes ................ 169pts (2 wins)
6. Jenson Button - McLaren ................ 161pts (1 win)
7. Felipe Massa - Williams ................ 106pts
8. Romain Grosjean - Lotus ................ 102pts
9. Daniel Ricciardo - Red Bull ................ 82pts
10. Kevin Magnussen (R) - McLaren ................ 64pts
11. Nico Hulkenberg - Force India ................ 52pts
12. Valtteri Bottas - Williams ................ 47pts
13. Adrian Sutil - Sauber ................ 41pts
14. Sergio Perez - Force India ................ 30pts
15. Jean-Eric Vergne - Toro Rosso ................ 29pts
=16. Esteban Gutierrez - Sauber ................ 24pts (Gutierrez ahead on tie breaker)
=16. Pastor Maldonado - Lotus ................ 24pts
18. Danil Kvyat (R) - Toro Rosso ................ 23pts
19. Jules Bianchi - Marussia ................ 7pts
20. Kamui Kobayashi - Caterham .............. 4pts
=21. Marcus Ericsson (R) - Caterham ................ 3pts (Ericsson ahead on tie breaker)
=21. Max Chilton - Marussia ................ 3pts
CONSTRUCTORS CHAMPIONSHIP
1. Mercedes ................ 465pts (6 wins)
2. Ferrari ................ 464pts (8 wins)
3. Red Bull ............... 371pts (4 wins)
4. McLaren ............... 225pts (1 win)
5. Williams ............... 153pts
6. Lotus ............... 126pts
7. Force India ............... 82pts
8. Sauber ............... 65pts
9. Toro Rosso ............... 52pts
10. Marussia ............... 10pts
11. Caterham ............... 7pts
Thanks for that Dazzla, wouldn't mind if it happened that way. :)
So how about ranking the teams where we think they might be overall, or drivers?
I think
1.Mercedes
2.Ferrari - close
3.Red Bull - will use politics to get unfair advantage to mostly negate fair disadvantage
4.McLaren - good, able to win/challenge for wins, but not WDC. More like 2011/12 (but without Lewis)
5.Williams
6.Force India
7.Lotus - Now see them right there with Force India, or maybe ahead of Williams but no higher
8.Sauber
9.Toro Rosso
10.Marussia
11.Caterham
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
5. Lotus
6. Force India
7. Williams
8. Sauber
9. Toro Rosso
10. Marussia
11. Caterham
Folks, I'm seriously starting to wonder what all that vitriol against Red Bull is all about :confused: Just because they did a stellar job for four years, everybody seems to think they need to pile the hate on them. I seriously wonder what 'unfair advantage' they are supposed to get to offset a broken engine?Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
As far as I can remember, RB have never done anything that wasn't perfectly fine before they even arrived in F1. They've stretched the rules, like every other team before them, but that's about it. In contrast to the likes of Ferrari, Tyrell, BAR, McLaren, Benetton, Renault they don't have a history of outright cheating or blatant race fixing, so if anything they're catholic school girls in comparison to things we've seen in the past.
When I said unfair advantage, I meant that Red Bull and Renault are seeking special dispensation from the FIA to have more time to sort their reliability after the freeze.Quote:
Originally Posted by dj_bytedisaster
They had the same time and oportunity as did Mercedes and Ferrari. It is not fair they should have more. I can't see F1 allowing Renault to be so bad, so they will allow Renault everything they need to be more 'equal' to the other engines. I think this is more fake and artificial and against the spirit of what F1 is supposed to be. than anything else that has gone on lately.
Red Bull and Renault are seeming to want their cake and eat it. They ploughed all their efforts into last year while others were preparing for this. Others made the sacrifice and should now be allowed to reap the rewards in 2014. Red Bull-Renault want to have it both ways. I have almost no doubt the dispensation will be allowed.
Renault were previously allowed to increase their reliability/performance under the old rules, while being able to keep their fuel-consumption and driveability advantage over other engines.
If Renault should be allowed more time, so should Mercedes and Ferrari to make more developments and refinements - so then it's fair.
I agree entirely with your views rjb !
But F1 is afraid of loseing 2 ,2 car team so will buckle to RB !
dj, I have no problem with Red Bull or Sebastian's success at all, just as I never did with Schumacher (or Sebastien Loeb)! (I know that's probably quite unusual).Quote:
Originally Posted by dj_bytedisaster
I don't at all hate Red Bull, or any team or driver, though I do dislike aspects.
Many of us congratulated Vettel when he sealed the title in India last year, cos we recognised he did a bang-good job. Though I do think Vettel easily performed at the highest level of anyone last year, I am not trying to take anything away by saying it's much easier to do so in the best car - I feel that's simply the truth. I do think Alonso would be capable of doing a slightly better job, and that Hamilton has the latent talent to do better than both. But no-one else, including Kimi (though Kimi is one of the drivers about who I have the biggest question mark, not being sure how I rate them, others including Maldonado and Kobayashi).
With Fernando now declining a bit imo, I rate Seb as currently doing the best job of all. I am no Garry Walker and do recognise Seb's talent and rate him between 1st-3rd. I think Hamilton has the greatest ability of anyone, but nowhere near the brains of Seb (though I think Lewis is at a good level there) and so Seb manages everything better overall. I think Seb can manage a season in the best car than even Schumacher could.
As for Red Bull, I also feel they optimise things better and are more 'invincible' than even Ferrari 10 years ago, which I respect them for. I did have a slight awe in how Adrian Newey and his team came up with such a good car in 2012 despite being so restricted by the rules, then coming up with "10% more downforce" in 2013.
But I don't particularly like the arrogance and attitude of the team, and how they seem to have a sense of entitlement, such as to keep developing their engine after the freeze, even though they didn't make the sacrifices the others did, thus wanting their cake and eat it. Unfortunately, due to the team not making themselves that likeable etc. I now won't touch their drink whereas around 2003-2005 I used to fairly regularly. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way, so maybe Red Bull need to think about this - their ways have actually had a negative effect.
And yet, this isn't vitriol. I believe that stuff is really bad/unhealthy (I mean vitriol). It's more disappointment I feel.
Btw, to be fair, I made it a point to drink a can of Red Bull before every exam I did in college in 2003. I truly believe it made a real difference for the good. Though checking my shoulders and back, I was to find not even a single feather.
*as Septic Peg from Brian Conley, waving hands over crystal ball*
Oooooooooo... I predict... *continues waving hands over ball* ...that the World Drivers' Championship winner... Will be... a man. ...Oooooooooo... (that's more specific than Septic Peg's famous actual lottery prediction!)
(that rules out Seb then)
Ooooooooo... I can see... that the winner is driving... a car... *continues waving hands over crystal ball*
I also see a number... ...it's the winning driver's number! ......Ooooooooooooooooh... and the number is.........
....on the caaaaaaaaaar.
There will be... many overtaking manoeveurs... all using DRS...
A lot of posts there.
Its simple for me I hate Red Bull. :p ;)
(That saved a bit of typing) :p
May I remind you that all engine manufacturers made use of that special dispensation during the V8 area? And they all 3 will do again this year. And as a correction, only Renault seeks that dispensation, not Red Bull. They aren't engine manufacturers. Frankly, this all just sounds like infantile jealousy-fuelled Schadenfreude to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
I would find it amusing if Vettel won the championship again by virtue of the double-points gimmick, having been out of the running for most of the year due to the Red Bull's early inferiority - especially considering that the whole gimmick was devised to prevent him from achieving any further success .
I tend to think it is Newey that made Vettle. Last year there were 10 drivers who would have made in a Newey car. It is only a matter of time bdfore he rights the ship
Quote:
Originally Posted by Triumph
Whoever may win the 2014 WDC, with this imbecilic ruling of doubling the points in the last race, probably will have an asterisk placed alongside their name, because we will not see this stupid rule lasting into the 2015 season.
Whoever could be world champion at the end of the season, is still only going to be a small pool.
The most significant impact that the rule has though is to do with TV revenues.
To come tenth in the Constructor's title is worth $40m and since say last year, the distance separating Williams, Marussia and Caterham was only 5 points, that last race could see who knows what deals transpiring up and down pitlane. Would we see a team deliberately hand over 8th place in a GP in return for a cut of the cash?
I am hoping its Mercedes year and we see Hamilton get the second Championship I think he has deserved. Just wish I could get my enthusiasm back! This is the first year for many where I haven't really kept up with testing and the first time I can remember where a colleague has asked me what is going on and I haven't been able to answer! :erm:
Just over a month until the first live race though, hopefully it'll rain in Malaysia. Australia is already written off. :)
Right then, so with 2/3 of the testing done, how do we think it's looking?
And yes, I know about the cliche that we can't read too much into times (I'm not!) and we will have to wait till Melbourne etc.
Well it does appear Mercedes indeed have the upper hand, just a question of how much. Bear in mind, Mercedes have without fail always flattered in testing only to not do as well when the season starts. Even so, it seems clear that they're going to be up there, and their best season awaits.
Are Ferrari sandbagging a little? I think Alonso said the new windtunnel is making a difference. Ferrari probably won't be the best qualifiers again, but I'm interested to know how they will do in races with the 100kg fuel. They seem to be wise in prioritising Sunday.
Early reports have McLaren as a WDC dark horse. But I think that although they will be competitive, they are some way behind Mercedes, and I feel that when Jenson Button lapped +0.713sec slower than a Mercedes on one day, that was an accurate gap. Jenson himself seems to feel the same way.
It's hard to know for Red Bull. I know they are the best team and cannot be ruled out. But I do now believe they are not in contention this season, and only would be due to some sort of politics to get the playing field skewed, like with the tyres last year. In testing, the times they have actually shown have put them about Caterham's level, and less reliable. Obviously they should improve, but all things being equal it's just too much to get the WDC. I know many can't see this happening, but neither could we see Ferrari's downfall in 2005, or Williams doing so badly in 1998. No team is infallible. I read somewhere that people also couldn't imagine McLaren-Honda being so far behind Williams-Renault in 1992, simply on the basis that they were McLaren-Honda. In the same way, simply being Red Bull will not in itself mean anything. Vettel and team will still optimise every result, but maybe challenging for the top 3 is the very best in the circumstances.
Lotus should come anywhere between 4th and 7th overall. Based on Maldonado's best time, it seems despite the team's situation the chassis is still pretty good quality. Depends on Renault though. I now estimate Lotus roughly round my original prediction (Grand Prix 2 Season 1) i.e. around Force India/Williams. Unreliability is a ? though.
Force India now look slightly quicker than Williams, though it's so hard to tell. Perez may surprise this year: Don't forget the disadvantage of Hulk's bulk.
Williams now appear to not be the dark horse (even for wins/WDC according to some) but are definitely in for a better season. I am wondering whether Massa will now shade Bottas, having had him a little behind before. It should be close either way.
I don't see Sauber finishing higher than 8th this year, and testing seems to confirm this.
Toro Rosso are also in trouble and I'm not sure they can beat Sauber.
In terms of what they've actually shown, Marussia look disappointing and unreliable. But surely in theory they should be ahead of Caterham and maybe challenging Toro Rosso a little.
Oh dear. I think the only way you can measure Caterham is against the other Renault teams, to determine if they've made a good step. They look to be around 1sec off Toro Rosso I think, though that's much better compared to the Faenza team than any other year.
That's a brave call on Red Bull rjbetty. I am still unsure and have this feeling they will still be there somewhere.Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
As for Marussia. I too so want them to do better, but its been a troubled start. :(
I am predicting only 9 cars finishing in Australia, and a Marussia to get a couple of points. ;)
Yeah, with Red Bull it's hard to tell. Look how they sandbagged last year. But I'm not sure I see them beating Mercedes now.Quote:
Originally Posted by steveaki13
Oh yeah, I'm very much rooting for Marussia. I hope we get as few as 9 (it would make a nice CHANGE), but I predict 13, not wanting to get my hopes up too much...
If you take all factors into account, its realistic that 10 or less could finished. I mean firstly realiabilty is surely going to get rid of more than normal. So to 14 or 15.
Add in incidents maybe down to 10 or 11, then running out of fuel or mistakes takes us to less than 10.
I am probably going to be wrong, but it really could happen.
I have watched F1 since the early/mid 90s and this season has more question marks over it than any for a long time.
I would say similar seasons in terms of unknowns In recent years must be
1989 - After Turbo's
1998- Radical rules changes
2003 - Radical rule changes
and now 2014.
Its rare we have such upheaval
It looks to me like Mercedes will be the team to beat this year. They really seem to have the most overall together package so far and it looks really good for them that they have started working on performance rather than reliability now. I honestly think that they will be the team to beat. I think RBR have lost too much at the start of this preseason testing and they will not have realistically caught up until 5 or 6 races in with one preseason test remaining. Even in the remaining preseason test I'll be surprised if they make magical progress. Either way, I hope they don't, sick of seeing Vettel demolish the opposition in the best car on the grid. It's time to see what he can do from behind. Is he a true great or not? Maybe we'll finally find out this year.
Tazion, the holding co. for Tazio and it's afilliats, predicts that beside what has seemed to become the expected pecking order I would like to predict the biggest surprise:
Ferrari will benefit from a combination of a thoroughly efficient product from the clutch to the wiring haness destinations, but a conservative engine approach, which will help both drivers early. I don't think either one will win the WDC but you should bet on Ferrari winning the WCC
.Force India:
will and have been obliged to outfit the second best driver in the field with a rocketship, hopefully not to unreliable, this will be a big surprise. Even more fantastic, with the S. American money coming in for Felipe Baby:
Williams may be the biggest surprise of them all. If they can give FM a car with dewcent donforce, and good balance he will be schmoking :smokin:
champ.php?series=f1 :sailor:
Tazion Inc. is issuing a retraction of the previous post. One disgruntled employee got into our media department and made the press release containing these reckless assertions after swilling seven pints of Newcastle.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tazio
The offender has been dealt with, and currently has a bad headache. :arrows: :blackeye: :crazy:
So I've had a day or 2 free and spent far too much just having a look round at discussions here and elsewhere. I will now try to collate some thoughts here.
Apparently Rosberg has done many more laps than Lewis in testing. That, and Nico being able to push Lewis extremely close, plus the more cerebral approach required to reach a race now, and the fact that Nico presumably isn't disadvantaged by a certain lady screwing with his mind like Lewis is, and it starts to look like the 14/1 then 9/1 odds could actually have been a wise investment. I would have probably placed my first ever bet but finances have been incredibly bad temporarily this month.
Alonso has apparently had much more running than Raikkonen. For all the buildup, I can't really see Raikkonen toppling Alonso, also due to Kimi having to (re)acclimatise to the team against the incumbent Alonso. That is not dissing Kimi and that wouldn't be the end of the world. If he can do at least as well as Jenson did against Hamilton in 2010, his reputation should be fine.
Ferrari reportedly are lacking to Mercedes in the region of 75bhp right now...
I'm thinking Jenson's views might be quite good to go on. It looks like he thinks McLaren are a bit behind. Do not be fooled into thinking he is bluffing/sandbagging. I made that mistake last year and paid a terrible price, being not that much less of a laughing stock in FGP 2013 than the series promoter himself.
Jenson also apparently thought that Williams could possibly have the best race pace of all at this stage. :bounce: :eek:
Button seems to be someone who simply tells the truth as he sees it in these cases, rather than playing games.
Flippin heck, where did Red Bull get that time the other day? Hopefully they won't be able to keep up that pace for more than a few corners at a time (yeah I won't feel too sorry if they don't get it all their way this year, sue me).
Sauber look quite cr@p but not many are surprised. I wish they'd go for a more retro black design rather than dark grey!
What of Massa setting the overall fastest Bahrain laptime of 2014?
Some are going so far to say that Williams, amazingly, have the best car, and whisper it, may be a serious threat for the WDC. I'm not sure, but that time looks fairly 'real'.
"So what" you say, "Force India were quickest for two days too". But that was with a 1:35. Felipe set a 1:32. I do think Mercedes can show a little more though, and Williams won't develop as well.
People say that Williams are almost a new team with all their major staff changes. In 2012 they surprised us, and even though Williams have a real habit of flattering to deceive in testing, they do look like they could do quite well.
Marussia look faster than Caterham, and seem around 1sec off Toro Rosso. Maybe they can nip at their heels.
I'm wondering whether Christian Horner will start bleating about changes "for the good of F1" (which just so happen to massively suit Red Bull) - i.e. Renault being allowed to do as much as they please after the freeze.
I'll add my voice again to say we don't want double points. Bernie should stop trying to pinch ideas from FGP!!!
Well, what can I say about these tests. To be honest, it looks like they have made predicting even more difficult than before the tests.:p: More car problems than I have ever seen before, even though it seems like the gaps have finally come down a little bit.
I think the hardest thing of the season to predict is the disparity between engines. Before testing I had a hypothesis that all engine manufacturers should be competent enough not to allow huge gaps. But especially the first few days were eye-opening. Of course the gaps will gradually come down, but Renault has a deep learning curve.
It looks like for the start of the season Mercedes is in brilliant position to capitalize to get an advantage over, specifically, Ferrari and Red Bull.
It looks like other Mercedes-teams (McLaren, Force India, Williams) are also in a good position to get strong results.
It looks like Ferrari is its usual solid self from last few years - thereabouts/podium material, but not outstanding. Of course it is claimed Ferrari's engine is behind Mercedes', but at least it looks like it functions well and is reliable, so should allow to achieve at least decentish results.
Lotus indeed will have a slow start, like rjbetty's 2001 Benetton example.
Red Bull? Their winter tests remind a lot of McLaren 2004. But it looks like a tough start in any case unless they find a miracle solution like McLaren did in 2011 – they messed all winter tests while struggling, but at Melbourne were suddenly clearly second best.
Now, Red Bull is a team with great potential and we have seen them not really being fully up-to-speed early on before. But now with new regulations their learning curve seems to be steeper than ever before. I think you could say the Red Bull has most untapped potential of all, combined with Renault, but the matter is how quickly they can get themselves properly running. This will be make or break for the season. Before one day they do it, championships may have already been lost. It is not the matter of finishing 2nd or 4th in early races like in 2012, it is the matter of getting points at all and actually finishing races, which what McLaren's early 2004 was about.
Now, if I am looking at my predictions now that I drew up before winter tests... of course I have questions. The engine factor (both speed and reliability) may have been greater than I anticipated, which means that now I question – should I have for example swapped Lotus and Williams for 6th and 7th in WCC? Should McLaren be closer to the top than I predicted? Should Red Bull be further down from the title fight?
However, one thing is to predict early races, other thing the overall season of 19 races, because especially in a season after big regulation changes, pecking order can change a lot during the season – as teams learn a lot about how to untap the potential of their cars, and this time engines as well.
Looking at my prediction on a race-by-race basis again, I had Rosberg-Hamilton-Button as top 3 in WDC after the fourth race, Chinese GP. With Vettel 7th, even behind Hülkenberg. But from the European season onwards the state of the game started to change.
The big question is about Renault now. How much will it take time for RBR get back to the game, if they get there at all. And when will Lotus become fast, because some say they are impressed with Lotus' innovational design (trademark of Enstone factory)? What about Williams, the eternal impressive team of winter tests, who struggles to realize its potential in the racing season? What about especially Hülkenberg in the Force India?
Yeah, it looks like Sauber is one of the teams, who is not going to have an outstanding start into 2014. It looks like they haven't managed a very good integration with Ferrari engine, and if Ferrari engine is down on power too as rumoured, it makes it a bit of a challenge for them.Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
Williams is a potential dark horse, but far from me be it to consider them as a title contender. However, I have been thinking about Bottas being a "surprise podium visitor" of 2014 for some time already. An interesting dream or thought to say. Everyone likes to talk about Massa and how the Brazilian is rejuvenated in a new team, but he will have his hands full with the young Finn I guess. Anyway, it should be one of the closer team-mate battles on the grid.
Williams was fast in 2012, as said, and it may be possible to sort of replicate that kind of season again. But it is important for them to capitalize on early-season opportunities, because over a full year especially the Renault-powered teams will get up-to-speed and will make competition more difficult.
rj that is an unsubstantiated rumor, and wouldn't believe the doom and gloom being spewed by the media, or even Stefano Domenicali .Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
AMUS' Michael Schmidt along with every other journo in the first three rows has his own conspiracy theory:
http://translate.google.de/translate?sl ... ml&act=urlQuote:
Ferrari holds back on purpose?
If Ferrari as in recent years again before a comeback? The answers in the paddock vary widely. Some believe that the backlog really is this second. The others can imagine that Ferrari has not revealed all the cards. The usually skeptical Alonso sprayed too much confidence. And at the round analysis revealed some inconsistencies.
Ferrari has never packed all peaks in a round. If you swept with full top speed over the finish line, was driven deliberately slowly to the rest of the round. In a Sektorbestzeit you could bet that the other two sectors in comparison to fell off. In a discipline Ferrari is already tip. Alonso managed with 339.6 km / h the highest top speed.
Also:Quote:
Originally Posted by Tazio
[/quote:25ho7gkz]Quote:
Domenicali brushed off rumours that the Ferrari engine is underpowered and heavier compared to its rivals, but admitted there was still work to do on the energy recovery system.
"First of all, I don't know [about the rumours] because I have heard so many numbers around it. I know what is for sure the situation on our side, and I can guarantee that what I heard are numbers that are throwing the dice in the air [and seeing what lands]!
"To be serious, I think that the most important thing we need to understand on our side is how to manage the balance between the electrical power, the ERS, the MGU-K and the battery. All those things have an effect in terms of horsepower and that's really something which I believe there is a lot of potential to take out."
Read more at http://en.espnf1.com/ferrari/motorsport ... eipii46.99
Steveaki13 - Oz Gp Weekend.
Grid:
1. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes
2. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes
3. Kimi Raikkonen - Ferrari
4. Felipe Massa - Williams
5. Kev Magnussen - Mclaren
6. Nico Hulkenberg - Force India
7. Fernando Alonso - Ferrari
8. Jenson Button - McLaren
9. Valterri Bottas - Williams
10. Sergio Perez - Force India
11.Daniel Ricciardo - Red Bull
12. Adrian Sutil - Sauber
13. Romain Grosjean - Lotus
14. Esteban Gutierrez - Sauber
15. J E Vergne - Toro Rosso
16. Jules Bianchi - Marussia
17. Pastor Maldonado - Lotus
18. Danii Kyvat - Toro Rosso
19. Max Chilton - Marussia
20. Kamui Koabayshi - Caterham
21. Marcu Ericcson - Caterham
22. Sebastian Vettel - Red Bull * No Time
* Seb cant get the Red Bull out of the garage after problems in Saturday Practice.
Race Day
As the cars making their way around the green flag lap, Sutil's Sauber breaks down at the side of the track and only 21 take the start. Vettel starts in the pits to avoid the chaos.
So the 20 cars roar slightly quieter off the grid and head to turn one. Rosberg makes a stormer as does Hulkenberg, at turn one, Chilton and Kyvat collide and are both out early.
End of Lap 1 and its Rosberg, Hamilton, Massa, Hulkenberg, Raikkonen and Alonso the top 6.
By Lap 3 Ericcson pits after an issues and loses a lap. Lap 4 and Maldonado Blows an Engine and pulls of at turn 4.
Vettel is coming through the field and is up to 13th by Lap 5 out of the 18 that remain.
Fuel saving see's several drivers holding station, catching Perez out who rams Button on Lap 7. Button continues but Perez retires in the pits. JB is now 16th. Lap 9 and Gutierrez grinds to a holt meaning just 16 left and both Saubers are Out.
The first stops arrive and through the next few laps positions change. Hamilton leads, Massa now up to 2nd, Rosberg 3rd.
Kimi has an electrical problem and stops in the pits. while Vergne has lost time in the pits with a problem
Lap 15 and 15 remain. 1.Hamilton *, 2.Massa +7, 3.Rosberg, +11, 4.Alonso+ 21, 5.Magnussen +27, 6.Hulkenberg +32, 7.Ricciardo +41, 8.Bottas+ 42, 9.Grosjean +51, 10.Vettel +52, 11.Bianchi +1:01, 12. JE Vergne +1:06, 13. Kobayashi +1:16, 14. Button +1:18, 15. Ericcson +1 Lap.
Hamilton pulls away, but gear box failure on lap 19 sees Button retire for good. Seb battles hard but on Lap 23 problems return and he pulls into the garage.
Rosberg passes Massa on Lap 24, and the drivers push on after early fuel saving. Bianchi has a spin on Lap 25 sending Vergne wide and across the gravel. Both rejoin.
Lap 27 and second stops begin. Rosberg loses time, while Kobayashi gets a penalty for ignoring blue flags. Massa spins out into the gravel on Lap 29.
Lap 33 and 2nd pitstops are complete.
1. Hamilton *, 2. Alonso +23, 3. Rosberg + 28, 4. Magnussen+ 39, 5. Hulkenberg +43, 6. Bottas + 54, 7. Ricciardo + 1:06, 8.Grosjean +1:22, 9. JE Vergne +1 Lap, 10. Bianchi +1 Lap, 11. Kobayashi +1 Lap, 12. Ericcson+2 Laps
The race settles down but Bottas is catching Magnussen and Hulkenberg, and by Lap 37 We are down to 11 as Kobayshi parks his Caterham. A near miss on Lap 39 see's Bottas pass Hulkenberg.
Lap 43 and Ricciardo completes the expected miserable day for Red Bull retiring from 7th. Just one lap later Magnussen pulls off with Smoke pouring out of the engine. Ericsson meanwhile is slowing to around 10 seconds off the pace, desperate to keep it going.
Lap 43: 1. Hamilton *, 2.Alonso +29, 3. Rosberg +30, 4. Bottas +1:04, 5. Hulkenberg +1:11, 6. Grosjean +1 Lap, 7. Vergne +1 Lap
8. Bianchi +1 Lap, 9. Ericcson +3 Laps
Now Sebastian Vettel rejoins 20 laps down, but does some testing.
Lap 46 and amid the pitstops Alonso has a Gearbox issue and grinds to a halt. Seb pulls back in on Lap 48. The problem not fixed.
Lap 50 and pitstops over, there are just 8 laps to try and limp through to score some points.
Lap 51 1. Hamilton *, Rosberg +29, 3. Bottas + 1:07, 4. Hulkenberg +1:19, 5. Grosjean +1 Lap, 6. Vergne +1 Lap, 7. Bianchi +2 Laps, 8. Ericcson +3 Laps
Lewis eases off, and Nico brings the gap down while Vergne catches Grosjean.
Lap 54 and Vergne nurfs Grosjean and passes for 5th, Grosjean slows and has damage. He retires leaving just 7 cars lapping the circuit.
Lap 55 and Hulkenberg pits with an issues, but gets out again just ahead of Vergne.
Drama on the penultimate lap as Nico Rosberg slows and stops at turn 14.
The race is over and Lewis wins the opening race of the season.
Results
1. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes - *
2. Valterri Bottas - Williams + 0:59:96
3. Nico Hulkenberg - Force India +1 Lap
4. JE Vergne - Toro Rosso - +1 Lap
5. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes +2 Laps - DNF
6. Jules Bianchi - Marussia +2 Laps
7. Marcus Ericcson - Caterham +4 Laps
:p
There you go, what a race that was. :lips:
:spinhead: Bravo! Very good report.
Hopefully it will happen something like that. But I would prefer to guess more conservatively and be pleasantly surprised than vice versa (which has been the case all too often over the years...)