Congratulation to all of the victors in the election and thanks to the others who chose to run. Back to work now!
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Congratulation to all of the victors in the election and thanks to the others who chose to run. Back to work now!
Do the polls take the electoral college into account?Quote:
Originally Posted by Malbec
Obama narrowly won the popular vote but the large majority came from the electoral college.
The polls do take the electoral college into consideration but they also all give a disclaimer that they have a degree of error of roughly 3 points. This was a close election going in by (almost) all accounts. :bulb:
The polls weren't really that close; it was mainly reporting that was playing up the closeness. More telling are the demographics of voting. Republicans received 7% of the black vote (no surprise there no matter which angle you look at it), 27% of the Hispanic vote (still the fastest growing voting group) and about 37% of voters under 30.
None of this bodes well for the future unless Republicans change their positions on a lot of issues, but this is where they were after the last election and if anything Republicans became more combative, obstructionist and extreme. So they're either going to change or split, with the current leadership and their dedicated followers being relegated to embarrassing nuisances like various national fronts in Europe. Granted they'll still make a lot of noise on the internet. ;)
but everyone missed the best thing voted on... In Colorado & Washington state, they've passed ordanences to make pot LEGAL! :D
Yes! It will be okay to "light up" in Denver & Seattle.
Until the Feds step in :dozey:Quote:
Originally Posted by veeten
Every medical Marijuana "brick and mortar" dispensary in San Diego has been shut down by the Federal Government. It is still available through delivery services however ;) It is not legal for recreational use in Cal. but in San Diego County they do not prosecute (for possession) unless it is for sale (over one ounce, or having it in multiple containers) however I don't recommend firing up in front of San Diego's finest. They may just empty their clip into you, and then get off with a slap on the wrist by claiming that they thought you brandished weapon when holding a spliff in anger :laugh:
The medical requirements in Colorado have been super lax for years so I don't see much changing other than all the ads at the back of papers don't have to specify the medical aspect. The real question is will the federal government step in? They were a bit heavy handed claiming there was a lot of abuse of the medical requirements, but without that rule it's a direct federal/state issue, now.
I have never been a fan of pot and never smoked it myself, but I think it should be made legal and taxed. If it were legal and taxed like cigarettes, the deficit would be paid down in weeks ;)
Totally agree, but I would make the comparison with alcohol. Marijuana definitely carries negative side affects beyond the danger from inhaling smoke. Also as with alcohol these can be exacerbated when used as a youngster.Quote:
Originally Posted by TyPat107
If the amount that went into the election campaigns had been taxed, the deficit would have been paid by now :p
Quote:
Originally Posted by race aficionado
Thank you Race, I am not at all unhappy about the results. I think the republican party needs a total overhaul at best. At the end of this term if I am still alive I will
be way to old to give a crap about the next one. So onward and GO Alonso!!!!
Thats what I thought too, that even with the polls slightly in favour of Obama just a day before the election a Romney victory was certainly within the margins of error.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Giacomo Rappaccini
After all the odd Republican comments about abortion, rape and sometimes abortion after rape what about vote breakdown between men and women?Quote:
Originally Posted by Gregor-y
It looks like the Republicans have repeated what happened in the UK after Tony Blair won in 1997. For a decade the Tory party lurched progressively right wing to the extent that the extremists were getting concerned that their policies were being hijacked and they were losing votes to the Conservatives. While that won a few votes from a vocal but small part of the population that made them unelectable for the mainstream. It took over a decade and several electoral disasters for them to finally elect a leader capable taking the party back into the centre.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gregor-y
I wonder if the Republicans are heading for a similar time in the wilderness, after all even Romney started relatively mainstream and got pulled further to the right by people from the Tea Party etc.
A quick look at the last figures I could find show Obama at approx. 59 million votes and Romney at approx. 57 million votes. That's a winning margin of 1.7% of the total votes cast. Hardly a blow out win in the popular vote. The real difference was in the electoral college. The sad thing is that only 57.48% of eligible voters cast ballots - that's a real shame no matter who you may have supported. (Caveat - not all votes counted yet.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Gregor-y
As an outsider, who values the role of the United States of America in the world I sincerely hope that the GOP can be rebuilt and return to the center, becoming a party with more mainstream positions, not dedicated to ruin the lives of women, minorities and gays. I think that the USA can only benefit from a rational alternative to the Democrats, which for now seem to be the sensible choice despite their weaknesses.
I've been of that opinion for a long time now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Roamy
You sound disappointed with that figure but for a mature democracy that really isn't a bad turnout.Quote:
Originally Posted by Starter
So do I, our country is poorer for having hopeless opposition in recent years. When Labour romped to a landslide victory in '97 the Conservatives tore themselves apart, seemingly having a different leader every few months. Even as their popularity faded and Brown became a hate figure, Cameron couldn't muster a proper majority. Now we have a coalition who seem utterly useless in every respect but Milliband is the equivalent of the hapless footballer who, faced with an open goal, kicks the ball up into the stands every time.Quote:
Originally Posted by F1boat
A strong opposition is vital to a working democracy, and I hope the Republicans can morph into a party capable of working with Obama but keeping him on his toes, rather than a reactive bunch of naysayers hell bent on blocking every Democratic policy out of sheer bloodymindedness.
I could call our democracy many things, but given the antics of both parties this time around, "mature" won't be one of them. :pQuote:
Originally Posted by Malbec
Dave B, I must admit that I do not follow British politics as much as US ones, but from what I see neither Labours nor Conservatives are as extreme as their positions as the tea party controlled GOP. In fact, the current GOP resembles BNP and that is why I find it to be scary - something which I can't say for a mainstream political party in the UK or Western Europe.
Yes. I think that's true. Whenever someone asks me to describe the Democrats and Republicans in terms of British polictics I always say that the Democrats are the equivalent to the Conservatives in the UK and the Republicans don't have a UK equivalent.
The Labour Party would seem positively communist to many in America.
PS Today marks the day when we are exactly half way through the current governments term in office.
Do folk feel that the electoral college system is democratic. There are many states that have voted consistently Republican or Democrat for decades. If you lived in one of them and supported the other party, do you feel your vote counts for anything? Wouldn't a straightforward 'one man, one vote' system voting directly for the candidate give the country the president it wants.
It's not entirely dissimilar to the way we elect MPs.
An interesting variation would be proportional representation. Where you don't a proportion for each candidate according to what proportion of the vote they got.
As Meat Loaf sang, "Two Out of Three Ain't Bad," with Joe Walsh and Allen West both being defeated and Michelle Bachmann barely surviving -- even in a district designed to quarantine her. The entertainment value of the House GOP certainly takes a hit, but it will be interesting to see if Bachmann survives the 2014 election given that is now very apprent that she is vulnerable.
That West is now whining about the result is scarcely a surprise. How he managed to avoid being court-martialed and tossed out of the Army is beyond me, but typical of the two-tiered justice system in the Army: one for the officers and one the enlisted. Had West been an E-5 (SGT), little doubt as to the outcome, but as an O-5 (LTC), he skated and was alllowd to retire rather than being discharged under other than honorable conditions.
As for the GOP doing some actual soul-searching and begin moving towards once again being a "big tent" party, one would think that such a thing might make sense. However, this is the modern GOP and the most likely reaction will be to find someone in 2016 who is close to a white, reactionary, right-wing, ultra-flamethrower as possible: a "true conservative." This is sad, given that the GOP really once was a Grand Old Party, once filled with reasonable, thoughtful leaders whose thoughts were focused how to best govern for the common good. The loss of the moderate Republicans through both election results and those either bolting or no longer supporting the party does not bode well. That there are still many good, reasonable people sticking it in the GOP does give one hope for the future, but it will not be any easy task.
As much as some may not realize it, the Democratic party is very much a party of the moderate Center these days. It is "liberal" only by comparison with the current GOP which has veered sharply to the right. We have more years of political gridlock and mayhem ahead of us before something approaching rationality returns to the US political scene. That the current Democratic coalition contains many who should rightfully be in a moderate, slightly right of center political party (as the GOP once was) shows just how badly the leadership of the GOP -- especially at the national and, in many cases, the state level -- has dropped the ball.
You might wish to direct that question to Al Gore....Quote:
Originally Posted by D-Type
Republicans are passing over the hump begun in 1968 by Richard Nixon's 'Southern Strategy' of appealing to southern white voters alienated by civil rights (which until then most Republicans also supported which allowed Democrats to push it through in the first place). Nixon's cynical maneuvering to add bodies to the party worked well for a number of years as the religious social conservatives moved from overt racism to a more religious based conservatism that didn't conflict with the more moderate parts of the party.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Capps
Through the 80s and into the 90s this conservative sect became stronger and resulted in a more negative, angry style of politics that started to permeate the whole party. The 1992 election saw the first real personally hostile behavior, reinforced by election gains in 1994 and only mildly blunted by losses in 1996, blame for the government shutdown, and impeachment of President Clinton. Republican candidates - most obviously Dole in 1996 - had to alter their long-standing image as moderates and accept more extreme vice presidential candidates to appeal to an increasingly bellicose party to get the nomination. The latter isn't so uncommon as Eisenhower was forced to accept Richard Nixon in 1952 for the same reason. But at that time Eisenhower didn't himself need to realign himself with the Party's conservative wing as later candidates did.
The 2000 election of President Bush resulted in a complete power grab by conservative elements, the pushing out of any older moderate Republicans - the Republican in Name Only moniker - or forcing them to change their views to appear presentable to what was becoming the Republican 'base.' John McCain's 2008 run, along with Romney this year, followed the path of failure blazed by Bob Dole in 1996 where a moderate candidate had to appeal to the conservative wing but tainted themselves so badly doing they appeared to be dishonest with their former selves and too conservative for the general election.
How will Republicans handle this loss? I've already mentioned the challenges they face, and as of today it doesn't look like they plan to do anything but triple down on a strategy that's already proven to be a loser two times over. And it's bad for the country as it prevents any real alternative to the Democratic party, stymies the political process overall and will seriously harm the current economic recovery. And there's every chance they will be blamed for the result, which will hurt them much more than the government shutdown of 1995 in the eyes of all but their most fervent supporters. The same people Nixon wanted to use for votes have ended up destroying his party. A fitting bit of karma for appealing to that element in the first place.
I agree with much of what you said. I would also add that the Republicans insisting on religious dogma (right to life) as part of their political platform has alienated many, especially women, who might otherwise have been more sympathetic to their economic arguments.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gregor-y
Republican values are not necessarily religious, (ignoring Papal and local differences among US Catholics) as much as a particular religion, primarily Southern Baptist and various offshoots from it or in its vein along with a hard line position from Rome that most non-appointed clergy ignore. Most moderates, such as the first George Bush, are from much more moderate churches. Which also probably hurt Romney since many of the hard-line faiths and trends are antagonistic toward Catholics, let alone Mormons. The differences among Catholics alone is pretty interesting and working at a Catholic (specifically Vincentian) school can lead to all sorts of fun lunch discussions when some of the priests join us.
Evangelicals aren't bad per se. It depends on what they're evangelizing.
I find it somewhat difficult to fathom Romney's religion had any significant impact amongst the religious right. He won the primaries, and considering the publicised opinions of many religious fanatics about Obama, I just don't believe they would have voted against Romney on a religious basis in the Presidential Election.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gregor-y
I wonder who is going to be Hillary Clinton's replacement . . . . .
could it be Powell?
I haven't yet commented on this thread, but I have been reading it since it started. I want to say that this entire thread has been more insightful, more interesting, and far more rational (with just an exception or two) than anything I could, and have, read in the past months in mainstream news and commentary. The viewpoints of those of you who do not live in the US have been very enlightening and very well stated. My husband and I periodically travel out of the country, and I always search out, and enjoy reading, the international editions of news magazines and their reporting of the US from the international perspective. We are not an insular country (no matter how much our one political party would like it to be), and all of us all over the world are globally connected in a way that will now never be severed. What happens to one of us politically has major impact on all of the rest of us.
And for we posters here in the States, it was so enjoyable to read posts that were well thought out, and transcended any one particular political view to go on to focus on the real challenges facing us as a country. Many of these posts gave me new "food for thought", and got me through a miserable few months when I felt that no one in the news or the campaigns remembered that we didn't want to hear talking heads and backstabbing, but rather wanted to hear real ideas for real solutions from those who wanted to lead our country.
Thank you, everyone.
I would say it's a possibility. He's experienced, bipartisan, and his name isn't political poison like other former members of the GWB cabinet, for one.Quote:
Originally Posted by race aficionado
I think Colin have said himself, 4 years ago, that he considers himself as unsuitable due to the Iraq war and his actions leading to it. You know that heQuote:
Originally Posted by race aficionado
mislead his country and the rest of the world with the talks about how Iraq with most certainty had weapons of mass destruction.
A MESSAGE FROM THE QUEEN
To the citizens of the United States of America from Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II
In light of your failure in recent years to nominate competent candidates for President of the USA and thus to govern yourselves, we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence, effective immediately. (You should look up 'revocation' in the Oxford English Dictionary.)
Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over all states, commonwealths, and territories (except North Dakota, which she does not fancy).
Your new Prime Minister, David Cameron, will appoint a Governor for America without the need for further elections.
Congress and the Senate will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated next year to determine whether any of you noticed.
To aid in the transition to a British Crown dependency, the following rules are introduced with immediate effect:
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1. The letter 'U' will be reinstated in words such as 'colour,' 'favour,' 'labour' and 'neighbour.' Likewise, you will learn to spell 'doughnut' without skipping half the letters, and the suffix '-ize' will be replaced by the suffix '-ise.' Generally, you will be expected to raise your vocabulary to acceptable levels. (look up 'vocabulary').
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2. Using the same twenty-seven words interspersed with filler noises such as ''like' and 'you know' is an unacceptable and inefficient form of communication. There is no such thing as U.S. English. We will let Microsoft know on your behalf. The Microsoft spell-checker will be adjusted to take into account the reinstated letter 'u'' and the elimination of '-ize.'
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3. July 4th will no longer be celebrated as a holiday.
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4. You will learn to resolve personal issues without using guns, lawyers, or therapists. The fact that you need so many lawyers and therapists shows that you're not quite ready to be independent. Guns should only be used for shooting grouse. If you can't sort things out without suing someone or speaking to a therapist, then you're not ready to shoot grouse.
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5. Therefore, you will no longer be allowed to own or carry anything more dangerous than a vegetable peeler. Although a permit will be required if you wish to carry a vegetable peeler in public.
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6. All intersections will be replaced with roundabouts, and you will start driving on the left side with immediate effect. At the same time, you will go metric with immediate effect and without the benefit of conversion tables. Both roundabouts and metrication will help you understand the British sense of humour.
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7. The former USA will adopt UK prices on petrol (which you have been calling gasoline) of roughly $10/US gallon. Get used to it.
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8. You will learn to make real chips. Those things you call French fries are not real chips, and those things you insist on calling potato chips are properly called crisps. Real chips are thick cut, fried in animal fat, and dressed not with ketchup but with vinegar.
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9. The cold, tasteless stuff you insist on calling beer is not actually beer at all. Henceforth, only proper British Bitter will be referred to as beer, and European brews of known and accepted provenance will be referred to as Lager. Australian beer is also acceptable, as they are pound for pound the greatest sporting nation on earth and it can only be due to the beer. They are also part of the British Commonwealth - see what it did for them. American brands will be referred to as Near-Frozen Gnat's Urine, so that all can be sold without risk of further confusion.
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10. Hollywood will be required occasionally to cast English actors as good guys. Hollywood will also be required to cast English actors to play English characters. Watching Andie MacDowell attempt English dialect in Four Weddings and a Funeral was an experience akin to having one's ears removed with a cheese grater.
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11. You will cease playing American football. There is only one kind of proper football; you call it soccer. Those of you brave enough will, in time, be allowed to play rugby (which has some similarities to American football, but does not involve stopping for a rest every twenty seconds or wearing full kevlar body armour like a bunch of nancies).
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12. Further, you will stop playing baseball. It is not reasonable to host an event called the World Series for a game which is not played outside of America. Since only 2.1% of you are aware there is a world beyond your borders, your error is understandable. You will learn cricket, and we will let you face the Australians first to take the sting out of their deliveries.
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13.. You must tell us who killed JFK. It's been driving us mad.
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14. An internal revenue agent (i.e. tax collector) from Her Majesty's Government will be with you shortly to ensure the acquisition of all monies due (backdated to 1776).
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15. Daily Tea Time begins promptly at 4 p.m. with proper cups, with saucers, and never mugs, with high quality biscuits (cookies) and cakes; plus strawberries (with cream) when in season.
God Save the Queen!
It's a very necessary one, though, given one fact above all others: the USA's changing ethnic demographic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Capps
More predictions from the pundits:
Over the next two years, we will probably see a very nasty civil war within the Republican party. One imagines that the plutocrats and oligarchs that tossed hundreds of millions (more like billions) into the election to buy it for the GOP are not very happy campers at the moment. Of course, that all the money could have probably been better spent actually doing something such as creating employment opportunities through investments and so forth for the betterment of the nation never crosses their minds. They will find ways to continue their fight to place their puppets into the political process and by so doing continue to undermine their efforts the American democracy. Likewise, wishing away the problem of the oligarchs will not work. At some point the corrosive influence of money upon the American political process will have to be faced. I would not hold my breath for that to happen at any moment soon, there being a near-total lack of backbone and character among the vast majority of those engaged in national politics, Democrats and Republicans, to clean out the sewer that has become the American political system and process. However, at some point it seems that people will finally get disgusted enough to become angry enough to force this sort of change. It could make the Tea Party pale by comparison. Indeed, the Tea Party demonstrates the path that should not be taken: it gave way to its delusions and denied realities, so intent on the universe it created its narrow interests that it missed the boat.Quote:
“It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.”
GOP strategist Karl Rove, in the Wall Street Journal, Oct. 31.
New York Times polling blogger “Nate Silver says there’s a 73.6 percent chance that the president’s going to win. Anybody that thinks this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue [that] they should be kept away from typewriters . . . because they’re jokes.”
Joe Scarborough, on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Oct. 29.
“By my reckoning, Gov. Romney will win . . . Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, plus either New Hampshire and/or Iowa for 270 to 276 electoral votes.”
University of Maryland professor Peter Morici, Tuesday morning, to e-mail subscribers (Romney won only North Carolina).
“I believe the minimum result will be 53-47 [percent] Romney, over 300 electoral votes, and the Republicans will pick up the Senate. I base that just on just years and years of experience.”
Newt Gingrich on Fox News, Oct. 25
“Mitt Romney will win big tonight. . . . Despite intense efforts, Obama will lose both Ohio and Pennsylvania. . . . One of the big Wednesday morning stories will be why most of the polls didn’t have this right.”
Former GOP candidate Steve Forbes, on Forbes.com, Tuesday.
“But frankly, my view, Greta, is that Romney is going to win this election by more than five points and that he’s going to get north of 320 electoral votes.”
Former Bill Clinton pollster Dick Morris, to Fox News’s Greta van Susteren, Oct. 26.
“I’m predicting a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory [for Romney]. Electorally it won’t even be that close. Romney will win many states that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.”
Las Vegas oddsmaker Wayne Allyn Root, in a Foxnews.com column, Oct. 9 (of the states listed, Romney won only North Carolina and Indiana and was losing in Florida).
“Furthermore, in battleground states, the edge in early and absentee vote turnout that propelled Democrats to victory in 2008 has clearly been eroded, cut in half according to a Republican National Committee summary.”
Rove, WSJ, Oct. 31.
“In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence — from crowd sizes to each side’s closing arguments — give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president. Let’s call it 51 percent-48 percent, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.”
Rove, WSJ, Oct. 31.
“George Will’s Electoral [vote] Pick: Obama 217. Romney: 321.” Added Will: “I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney.” (It didn’t.)
Washington Post columnist Will, on ABC’s “This Week,” Sunday.
“I think this is premature. We’ve got a quarter of the vote. Now remember, here is the thing about Ohio. A third of the vote or more is cast early and is won overwhelmingly by the Democrats. It’s counted first and then you count the Election Day, and the question is, by the time you finish counting the Election Day, does it overcome that early advantage that Democrats have built up in early voting, particularly in Cuyahoga County? . . . Even if they have made [the call] on the basis of select precincts, I’d be very cautious about intruding in this process.”
Rove, on election night, disputing Fox News’s decision to call Ohio, and the election, for Obama.
“You know, after the election, either I’m going to have to go through a big reckoning or [people who think I’m wrong] are. And you know what? They are.”
Morris, on Fox News, Sunday.
Something worth taking a look at regarding the problem with reality check and the problem that the GOP is facing (from the last paragraph in George Orwell: In Front of Your Nose):
Quote:
The point is that we are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue, and then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right. Intellectually, it is possible to carry on this process for an indefinite time: the only check on it is that sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield.
I have to say that I am quite pleased with the outcome of the election. I feel even better that I put my money where my mouth is and contributed (a little) to the campaign. As insignificant as it may seem I apreciate this form letter I received from the Obama machine within minutes of The President of The United States of America being projected as the winner:
Victor --
I'm about to go speak to the crowd here in Chicago, but I wanted to thank you first.
I want you to know that this wasn't fate, and it wasn't an accident. You made this happen.
You organized yourselves block by block. You took ownership of this campaign five and ten dollars at a time. And when it wasn't easy, you pressed forward.
I will spend the rest of my presidency honoring your support, and doing what I can to finish what we started.
But I want you to take real pride, as I do, in how we got the chance in the first place.
Today is the clearest proof yet that, against the odds, ordinary Americans can overcome powerful interests.
There's a lot more work to do.
But for right now: Thank you.
Barack
That sticks in the craw a bit. As though his campaign wasn't funded by other, different, no doubt quite powerful interests!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Giacomo Rappaccini
In the end it didn't affect the vote so much because of the intense hatred drummed up against the President, but it was a bitter pill to swallow in the primaries. And as many Ron Paul supporters like to point out, the primaries (and the convention itself) were rigged to favor Romney. There's no law being broken when a party manipulates its own procedures.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShiftingGears
That reminded me of a cartoon from the 80s about 'taking back' Massachusetts:Quote:
Originally Posted by Knock-on
http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/6536/bloom1.jpg
Actually I think that comment was in the context of having a better ground game and many more volunteers that not only kept people informed about his message in general, but also providing transportation to citizens without any of their own to the DMV’s do to changing regulations ramroded through by Republicans at the state level specifically getting previously unnecessary ID's required to facilitate voter suppression of this demographic, and the information about court injunctions that overruled some.Quote:
Originally Posted by BDunnell
Although there is no doubt that his campaign spent a lot of money, in the Super PACS it was less than 1/4 of the contributions for his opponent. I saw an interesting piece on the news last night (which I can't find a link to) that reported The President of The United States of America was told by his campaign handlers that attacking Romney early would be a very good strategy but if the gamble failed there would be no resources left for a plan "B", before he had to make the decision to take that tack.
http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphoto...11856673_n.jpg