Ok, since the 2013 cars will probably all be evolutions of the 2012 ones, I thought if I see how many points some of the drivers could have got if everything went right (i.e. the optimum score possible) in 2012, it can give a good idea of the form going into 2013.
So for example, Lewis Hamilton scored 190pts last year. But if he hadn't been sent to the back of the grid in Spain, the likely result is that he would have won (he was hugely ahead in qualifying). There is definitely guesswork involved here, but this should be at least a reasonably good indicator. I also make the maximum result for Lewis in Australia 2nd rather than 3rd. For all the races I make it roughly
Australia - safety car, bad pit timing messed him up - 2nd
Malaysia - ahead of Alonso before bad pitstop - 3rd
China - 2nd if not for gearbox penalty - 2nd
Bahrain - 5th without bad pitstop - 5th
Spain - 1st
Valencia - 4th, hit by Maldonado. Surely wouldn't have held 3rd with those shot tyres.
Germany - Now I do believe he was a little quicker than Jenson despite quali. Given Jenson was so close to Alonso, I'm gonna guess Lewis could have overtaken him. He did do so while a lap down, though on fresher tyres and Alonso had nothing to lose, but Alonso WAS trying hard to keep him behind as a buffer. I am going to go with a Lewis win as at Germany 2011.
Belgium - 4th. I'd say he'd have beaten Hulkenberg but not Raikkonen.
Singapore - 1st
Japan - 2nd, Massa was 2nd. Lewis was delayed in quali, starting 9th. I think Lewis was definitely quicker than Jenson.
Korea - 5th? Don't know.
Abu Dhabi - 1st
Brazil - 1st
This comes to roughly 360pts if I give him a few more for 3rd at Monaco (he said he could have got that). It's not exact science, but I don't think it's ridiculously far out either. Close enough to get a good idea.
Doing this for others, I make their maximum points more or less this
1.Vettel - 360pts
2.Hamilton - 360pts
3.Alonso - 320pts - The Ferrari must have been close to the top in race trim.
4.Button - 250pts
5.Webber - 240pts
6.Raikkonen - 240pts
7.Grosjean - 190pts
8.Maldonado - 140pts
9.Massa - 140pts
10.Perez - 130pts (the hardest by far to tell, had to take quie a lot of guesswork...)
11.Schumacher - 130pts
12.Rosberg - 120pts
13.Koabayashi - 100pts (hard to tell)
Perez was the hardest. I'd say 4th for Spain, but why not another podium or even a win? What about Silverstone? If he'd had started on pole and got through the first lap 1st, what's to say he couldn't have won? Look at the progress he was making in the race from 16th. Hard to know. The 130pts is based on lesser results than that - I gave him 4th for Spain.
Adrian Newey is saying Red Bull have been compromised for 2013 by their 2012 efforts, and also he is experiencing the law of diminishing returns. Sounds good for the field closing up. However, this should be based on their end-of-season form, not the whole season which includes their middling start. If Red Bull had had that car the whole season, then I'd say Vettel's points maximum would have been over 400 probably.
