What Happens Next?

John, excellent points. The whole issue people would have if Champ Car died and Atlantics were elevated, is that the cars are just not of the same difficulty to drive and set up. The bigger power and heavier cars in Champ Car or the IRL are tougher to driver and more of a challenge. That said, you are dead on the money saying Atlantics and Formula Mazda would put on a better show. GP2 puts on a better show than f1, but for whatever reason, OW racing is all about the challenge of the technology and the skill of the drivers, and not about the entertainment value. The problem is, racing ceased to be a serious R and D lab for the manufacturers a while back. It is now about promoting the brand, and providing entertainment, and the lesser formula would do better at these things.

It isn't going to change though people, so although we all know Atlantics, GP2, Infiniti Pro Series, and Formula Mazda would all be more entertaining than their bigger brothers, no one would shell out the big dollars for these guys in stand alone events...except maybe at Trois Rivieres where the Atlantics WERE The show for years....

Walker racing just formed a partnership to develop racers for CC.

I talked to Cameron at RA, he wants to get to CC.

All in this link-

http://www.topix.com/racing/star-mazda-series

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sanguin

This is where you just don't get it. CC's owners don't have a gun or a plan that includes anything to do with IRL's demise.CC doesn't try to get their venues,or drivers or teams. IRL will collapse on its own. What does Honda get out of spending money to prop up the IRL? What does it get out of defeating itself in the Indy 500? No one wants to spend money to try to beat them. If Honda were just selling engines ,it would be different, but they bring discounted sponsorships and drivers salaries, team subsidies and discount engine programs. This does not make sense ,they don't own the IRL. Why? because they signed on to stay in the IRL until they follow Toyota into Nascar.



Good luck with that,it won't make a difference,CC is not dependent on IRL.I don't see any manufacturer giving Honda level support without a merger. The Irl just doesn't have the fan base or events to support that happening. The 500 does nothing for the IRL in attendance or ratings at their other events.

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just so I don't have to repeat myself. ;)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sanguin

just so I don't have to repeat myself. ;)

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And yet, you just did.

Gary

I soon have to jump back into the other part of my life but I feel this has been great fun and helpful in understanding points of view that are new to me. I have leaned much from many of you in my week on posting on this board… Thanks to everyone for such a great discussion. There is much wisdom in this community and it needs to be heard above all the divisive rhetoric. Speaking of which...

Sanguin, You are the chaming poster child for Zeal. Thankfully, all 126 people (or are you down to 125 now?) left who still believe the Amigo's fantasies need you out front leading the charge to the Kool Aid fountain. Hey, did you also fall for pyramid schemes back in the 1980s? Anyhow, this would not have been nearly the fun it has been without you. Thanks. You have made more of my points than I could have made without your help. Say “hi” to Paper and the Cipper for me.

Back to what happens next?

So, it now seems clear to many of us that the Amigos have no real plan other than trying to force some sort of sale or merger by being in the way of progress. Actually, one of the Amigos once told me that this is the back-up plan. He cockily speculated back in 2003 that someone (TG, BE or the Frances) would buy them so it would all pan out for the best one way or another. I discounted that comment then but not now given how things have gone.

But I have a sense even that "strategy" is as fatally flawed as all the other gambits they have tried because the are failing to create any believable meaning in the ChampCar brand nor any tangible value that is not tied to a specific event such as Long Beach or Edmonton or Assen. So far, these events are racing snack food--not soul food. All lack the emotional meaning and defining power of something enduring like the Indy 500, Daytona 500, Monaco or Le Mans.

Now, there are probably people in ChampCar who do think strategically. In particular, I won't underestimate the impact that David Higdon is having on the current situation(s) but it is all clearly too little too late. He along with Tony Cotman and Vicky O’Connor stand as examples (there are many others past and present) of the precious human capital potentially squandered in this sorry mess.

So, what do I think will happen next?

ChampCar will try their best to change the subject and get hope floating again while they scramble to figure out what to do about the fires burning on every floor.

They will make an announcement (or three) in an attempt to stop the tailspin and to counter what the Indy Car Series likely has coming. The subjects could be:

1) A new event (or events) in Europe or Australia will come to the fore but that will probably need to wait until for confirmation until the FIA calendar is final so they will go for something else...

2) A new Euro or Aussie team or sponsor(s) will be rumored for months on end to deflect attention from the potential loss of CDW and RedBull. I can only imagine the pressure that is being put on Trust to jump in with both feet without looking.

3) A regional ChampCar support series in Europe will probably be the next real announcement. This will probably be Mazda Atlantic rather that going with F3 or F Whatever... It will also probably be someone other than the Amigos underwriting the idea based upon what they saw during the European races. Remember that it has been the Amigo’s style to get someone else to assume the risk so good luck to whoever takes this on! My guess that this is "The Big news” our dear friend Sanguin has been told by the Amigos. If so, it makes sense in that Atlantic works wonderfully as a formula. The Amigos are unlikely to escape funding cars to fill the CC field should they keep going and they don't want such funding to appear to be hand outs so they were probably thinking why not have a $2 million prize for a European Atlantic Championship winner and sell some Cosworth and PI stuff as part of the deal to offset the prize? My guess is that this sort of thinking is how they see most issues.

4) They will try to hire a major "brand name” sports marketing company to sell sponsorship. I hear rumors that IMG has been met with the Amigos during the past year, and I also suspect that NEXT Marketing is hard up against the reality of trying to sell "Mutton dressed as Lamb" (thanks for that great phrase flatchatracer.) I can’t help but think that they will either drop this sinkhole of a client (especially if CDW moves on as is rumored) or ultimately be replaced in the Amigos fruitless quest for credibility.

5) The Amigos will do whatever it takes to finally get Indy 500 winner (and potential IndyCar Series Champion) Dario Franchitti back to Champ Car as the team leader at NHL. My guess is that this is why PLN was in Detroit. In my opinion, it is really their last chance to show they have teeth and the will to win. I also doubt it will happen… but if it does, I suspect NHL will probably enter the Indy 500 which will once again open the door to the Champocolypse.

6) The Vegas GP will either get scrubbed or change hands to become the latest “brilliant strategic acquisition” by the Amigos.

I just read Gordon Kirby’s latest column on GordonKirby.com and Mike Hull of Target Chip Ganassi Racing says it best: “In racing, you’re either being validated or looking for validation. It’s one or the other, nothing in between.” So far, the Amigos have spent most of the past year stuck in “nothing in between”.

Speaking of “nothing”, that was what the shareholders of JDS/Uniphase were left with and what has resulted is the fabled JDS/Uniphase shareholder lawsuit that goes to trial in October. The plaintiffs allege fraud on the part of Kevin Kalkhoven and others. I found this (and much more) when I googled the subject this morning:

http://press.arrivenet.com/business/...hp/322351.html

“The lawsuit claims that the San Jose-based fiber-optics company issued false and misleading financial statements to the public. According to the complaint, JDS and 10 of its top officers stated throughout the Class Period that demand for the company's products was accelerating, and that the company's only problem was its ability to manufacture enough to meet demand. The complaint also maintains that the company misrepresented the success of several major acquisitions and downplayed its dependence on its two largest customers.

But the company falsely informed investors that demand was as strong as claimed, the complaint alleges. On July 26, 2001, JDS restated the company's third quarter 2001 financial results and took massive fourth-quarter charges to account for a total of $44 billion in write-offs associated with its acquisitions and excess inventory. Those revisions and write-offs increased JDS' losses for fiscal year 2001 to $56.1 billion. According to the complaint, JDS executives knew of a slowdown in demand because the company employed 80 engineers to monitor customers and inventory levels.

After the revised numbers were announced, JDS stock fell to as low as $7.90 per share after trading at a Class Period high of $146.32 - a 94% decline. The lawsuit also alleges that the artificially inflated stock price enabled certain company officers to sell $2.1 billion of their own JDS holdings before the company's true financial state became public.”

Hmmm, something about the foregoing sounds faintly familiar.

So what about the IndyCar Series?

What happens next?

I think they will have some announcements of their own:

1) They will reveal financial incentives to get new entrants --- especially a couple of ChampCar teams who have probably had enough of the Amigos. Who knows, one or more may jump ship? Think about it: If you were a Champ Car team owner trying to sell sponsorship, what would you do? Despite this, my guess is the IRL may end up with about the same number of cars due to the loss of one or more of TG’s cars and possible reduction of effort by other teams that have been supported by him. You can take this as a bad sign for the IRL, or a good sign, depending on your political bent.

2) IndyCar may announce their 17th race in Southern California (San Diego or LA are rumored) and it will actually happen if announced. If so, there will be significant corporate sponsorship and media buzz and it will be a tipping point in the minds of most if it does indeed come to fruition. It will also be a street race bringing the total of 2008 road races to six.

3) The Indy Car Series will give more clues about the next generation cars and engines as well as the 100th Anniversary era, which should create interest and discussion. Like many, I remain skeptical that they will create something cool but I will wait until they announce what they plan to do until I make my mind up. Hell, what else can we all really do?

4) Honda will or won’t announce something! My guess is that they will stick with the Indy Car Series through 2009 and perhaps longer. But, anything can happen (as history has proven). Honda’s potential for departure remains as the Amigo’s Great White Hope for a more favorable end to their misguided hobby adventure. On the other hand, should Honda eject they I doubt they will leave the series in the lurch and there is a chance some other manufacturer may be interested. Perhaps the series engine supply will be run under another business model. How about junkyard motors? Time will tell how this plays out but I doubt TG’s boys are sitting on their hands.

5) Sam Hornish and RP will announce the NASCAR switch and Ryan Brisco will replace him as has been reported elsewhere. There will be some negative backlash but life will go on. My sense is that Hornish will have a way back to RP’s IndyCar if he wants it and I bet he will eventually.

6) The Indy Car Series and Just Marketing will announce a new series sponsor before the season begins. Hopefully it won’t be a struggling company like Northern Lights or Pep Boys. If this happens, and the sponsor is a mainstream brand with a real activation budget the game is over.

7) Gene Simmons will be renewed and asked to anchor the Indy 500 Broadcast along with PeeWee Herman. Ratings will soar to 1996 levels.

Overall, my sense is that the Indy Car Series will continue to struggle for true credibility with drivers and the media if they remain hell bent on creating such obviously contrived racing in an effort to reach the mythical casual fan. To me, this is a key issue. Doesn't anyone pause and ask themselves if this tactic has worked? From the looks of it... no. Using ChampCar's hapless current state as a competitive benchmark is also foolish at best.

I think the whole Split has been about underestimating how much damage would be done by alienating the generations of hard core auto racing fans who love and respect the Indy 500 and what it really stands for. I can’t imagine the NFL, MLB or the NBA taking the same risk. The closest things to this stupidity have been the MLB and NHL Strikes and you can plainly see how those actions helped each of those sports!

In the end, there has to be a balance between found between the IRL’s chronic NASCAR envy and ChampCar’s incurable F1 wannabeitis.

I hope the powers that be find it because I don’t see any other way forward.

Real Indy Car racing has never been about lusting after the cultures of NASCAR or Formula 1.

I believe the sport has always been rooted in its own unique culture that embraces individuality, talent, innovation, courage and diversity. These are all the things that still make America special and something you won’t find while chasing a sanction fee to the four corners of the earth or by being Hamburger Helper to NASCAR promoters trying to make the numbers in the face of NEXTEL's Cup's declining fan interest, overexposure and sponsor clutter.

I also believe that nothing less than The Real Thing is what we all really want and as the folks a Porsches say, we should “accept no substitutes”.
For the record, I am one of the people who didn’t like the Handford device because of what it stood for nor do I fawn over “innovations” like the “power to pass” button. To me, the Danica “Steeringgate” flap is more of the same and all are damaging to the integrity of the sport and to the hard earned progress and success Danica has enjoyed this year. You know, people simply aren’t that dumb and universal access to information makes it hard to fool anyone these days.

One thing the IndyCar Series folks are right about though is that if Danica (legitimately) wins an Indy Car race the world will change forever… so I hope it happens.

The world will also change if the leaders of the sport size the opportunity to make things right again, which in my mind means making us whole again as a culture.

I also want "what happens next" to place less weight on people like WebCowlings (a demonic pro IRL web forum poster from 1995) or Sanquin (no comment) trying their best help us hate each other. Its time for people to come forward who remind us all of what we have in common. To me, that is a shared past and a bright future.

Which brings me back to where we began:

What happens next?

When you think about the answers to that question, don’t forget that the customer has a voice that is more powerful than ever before.

So, the time has come for me say goodbye.

Thanks for letting me drill down into this juicy subject rather than another rotten molar.

Since this is the end of my time posting on these boards I thought it would be appropriate to quote David St. Hubbins on the subject of "The End", as I slip back into cyberspace:

“Asked by a reporter if this is the end of Spinal Tap] “Well, I don't really think that the end can be assessed as of itself as being the end because what does the end feel like? It's like saying when you try to extrapolate the end of the universe, you say, if the universe is indeed infinite, then how — what does that mean? How far is all the way, and then if it stops, what's stopping it, and what's behind what's stopping it? So, what's the end, you know, is my question to you.”

In that spirit, please keep this conversation going. – Dr. Jack

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DrJackMiller

So what about the IndyCar Series?

What happens next?

I think they will have some announcements of their own:

1) They will reveal financial incentives to get new entrants --- especially a couple of ChampCar teams who have probably had enough of the Amigos. Who knows, one or more may jump ship? Think about it: If you were a Champ Car team owner trying to sell sponsorship, what would you do? Despite this, my guess is the IRL may end up with about the same number of cars due to the loss of one or more of TG’s cars and possible reduction of effort by other teams that have been supported by him. You can take this as a bad sign for the IRL, or a good sign, depending on your political bent.

2) IndyCar may announce their 17th race in Southern California (San Diego or LA are rumored) and it will actually happen if announced. If so, there will be significant corporate sponsorship and media buzz and it will be a tipping point in the minds of most if it does indeed come to fruition. It will also be a street race bringing the total of 2008 road races to six.

3) The Indy Car Series will give more clues about the next generation cars and engines as well as the 100th Anniversary era, which should create interest and discussion. Like many, I remain skeptical that they will create something cool but I will wait until they announce what they plan to do until I make my mind up. Hell, what else can we all really do?

4) Honda will or won’t announce something! My guess is that they will stick with the Indy Car Series through 2009 and perhaps longer. But, anything can happen (as history has proven). Honda’s potential for departure remains as the Amigo’s Great White Hope for a more favorable end to their misguided hobby adventure. On the other hand, should Honda eject they I doubt they will leave the series in the lurch and there is a chance some other manufacturer may be interested. Perhaps the series engine supply will be run under another business model. How about junkyard motors? Time will tell how this plays out but I doubt TG’s boys are sitting on their hands.

5) Sam Hornish and RP will announce the NASCAR switch and Ryan Brisco will replace him as has been reported elsewhere. There will be some negative backlash but life will go on. My sense is that Hornish will have a way back to RP’s IndyCar if he wants it and I bet he will eventually.

6) The Indy Car Series and Just Marketing will announce a new series sponsor before the season begins. Hopefully it won’t be a struggling company like Northern Lights or Pep Boys. If this happens, and the sponsor is a mainstream brand with a real activation budget the game is over.

7) Gene Simmons will be renewed and asked to anchor the Indy 500 Broadcast along with PeeWee Herman. Ratings will soar to 1996 levels.

Overall, my sense is that the Indy Car Series will continue to struggle for true credibility with drivers and the media if they remain hell bent on creating such obviously contrived racing in an effort to reach the mythical casual fan. To me, this is a key issue. Doesn't anyone pause and ask themselves if this tactic has worked? From the looks of it... no. Using ChampCar's hapless current state as a competitive benchmark is also foolish at best.

I think the whole Split has been about underestimating how much damage would be done by alienating the generations of hard core auto racing fans who love and respect the Indy 500 and what it really stands for. I can’t imagine the NFL, MLB or the NBA taking the same risk. The closest things to this stupidity have been the MLB and NHL Strikes and you can plainly see how those actions helped each of those sports!

In the end, there has to be a balance between found between the IRL’s chronic NASCAR envy and ChampCar’s incurable F1 wannabeitis.

I hope the powers that be find it because I don’t see any other way forward.

Real Indy Car racing has never been about lusting after the cultures of NASCAR or Formula 1.

I believe the sport has always been rooted in its own unique culture that embraces individuality, talent, innovation, courage and diversity. These are all the things that still make America special and something you won’t find while chasing a sanction fee to the four corners of the earth or by being Hamburger Helper to NASCAR promoters trying to make the numbers in the face of NEXTEL's Cup's declining fan interest, overexposure and sponsor clutter.

I also believe that nothing less than The Real Thing is what we all really want and as the folks a Porsches say, we should “accept no substitutes”.
For the record, I am one of the people who didn’t like the Handford device because of what it stood for nor do I fawn over “innovations” like the “power to pass” button. To me, the Danica “Steeringgate” flap is more of the same and all are damaging to the integrity of the sport and to the hard earned progress and success Danica has enjoyed this year. You know, people simply aren’t that dumb and universal access to information makes it hard to fool anyone these days.

One thing the IndyCar Series folks are right about though is that if Danica (legitimately) wins an Indy Car race the world will change forever… so I hope it happens.

The world will also change if the leaders of the sport size the opportunity to make things right again, which in my mind means making us whole again as a culture.

I also want "what happens next" to place less weight on people like WebCowlings (a demonic pro IRL web forum poster from 1995) or Sanquin (no comment) trying their best help us hate each other. Its time for people to come forward who remind us all of what we have in common. To me, that is a shared past and a bright future.

Which brings me back to where we began:

What happens next?

When you think about the answers to that question, don’t forget that the customer has a voice that is more powerful than ever before.

So, the time has come for me say goodbye.

Thanks for letting me drill down into this juicy subject rather than another rotten molar.

Since this is the end of my time posting on these boards I thought it would be appropriate to quote David St. Hubbins on the subject of "The End", as I slip back into cyberspace:

“Asked by a reporter if this is the end of Spinal Tap] “Well, I don't really think that the end can be assessed as of itself as being the end because what does the end feel like? It's like saying when you try to extrapolate the end of the universe, you say, if the universe is indeed infinite, then how — what does that mean? How far is all the way, and then if it stops, what's stopping it, and what's behind what's stopping it? So, what's the end, you know, is my question to you.”

In that spirit, please keep this conversation going. – Dr. Jack

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Come on Sanguin. In unison with me..."all smoke and mirrors".

Thanks, DrJack, for finally giving us your thoughts on what happens next.

Remember though, and I know you know it, since you posted it, that the JDS case doesn't go to trial until October. Since it hasn't happened yet, no one has been convicted yet. The fact remains that the defendants may be guilty, but it's wise not to sentence them yet.

But you've pretty well convinced me of your pro-irl bias. Not that there's anything wrong with that....

About Danica getting her win....I really don't get how the world will change, except that a woman will get a win in a major open wheel series (a feat for which she, or anyone, should be congratulated for), but Ashley Force has won races, as have several other women in drag racing. Do they get the short end of the stick in favor of Danicamania?

And one comment to pvtjoker: please, please, please....there is no need to quote the entire post (especially when it's that long) to make a one line comment.

Shirley Muldowney

Quote:

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Originally Posted by David St. Hubbins

Thanks, DrJack, for finally giving us your thoughts on what happens next.

Remember though, and I know you know it, since you posted it, that the JDS case doesn't go to trial until October. Since it hasn't happened yet, no one has been convicted yet. The fact remains that the defendants may be guilty, but it's wise not to sentence them yet.

But you've pretty well convinced me of your pro-irl bias. Not that there's anything wrong with that....

About Danica getting her win....I really don't get how the world will change, except that a woman will get a win in a major open wheel series (a feat for which she, or anyone, should be congratulated for), but Ashley Force has won races, as have several other women in drag racing. Do they get the short end of the stick in favor of Danicamania?

And one comment to pvtjoker: please, please, please....there is no need to quote the entire post (especially when it's that long) to make a one line comment.

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I also have to thank you Doc for using your fingers more than me to convey a lot of what I have felt or believed for a long time...I can't speak to your IRL portion of what's next cause I don't really know those guys, but I will say about your previous post: I think we must have met in late '03 because I had the same discussion with an Amigo with bad teeth :) ; Anyway, I agree with most of your thoughts and would add that PN will retire as a team owner; GF will be replaced as an Amigo; and PG will wait until the last second to run one car, if any at all. Best to you and feel free to PM me if you'd like to share some funny '03 stories.