I was addressing the question to you asking about how you get your facts straight and how you come up with a certain line of reasoning to make the right decision. Do you imply then that you have something to do with the military or high level politics?Quote:
Originally Posted by BDunnell
Speaking about wars, I tend to think most wars in 20th and 21st centuries were started based on perfectly rational thinking, rather than beliefs in supernatural forces. More often than not that kind of thinking let the political and military leaders down badly. Stalin thought he would easily crush Finland in 1939. Wrong. Britain and France thought they would easily contain Hitler in the same year. They were wrong. Hitler planned to defeat the Soviet Union in one campaign. Things went wrong for him. The U.S. thought Saddam had WMD (he didn't) and was a threat to neighbors (he wasn't after his 1991 defeat). The rest of the reasons that led the U.S. to the war in Iraq were perfectly rational. To sum it up, the "fact and reason" type of thinking performed slightly less than brilliantly. I believe it needs some improvement.
Continuing the topic, you might want to allocate some 90 minutes of your time and watch a BBC movie "In the Loop" that sheds some ironic light on the decision making process regarding going to war in the UK and the U.S.