Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
It looks to me like Mercedes will be the team to beat this year. They really seem to have the most overall together package so far and it looks really good for them that they have started working on performance rather than reliability now. I honestly think that they will be the team to beat. I think RBR have lost too much at the start of this preseason testing and they will not have realistically caught up until 5 or 6 races in with one preseason test remaining. Even in the remaining preseason test I'll be surprised if they make magical progress. Either way, I hope they don't, sick of seeing Vettel demolish the opposition in the best car on the grid. It's time to see what he can do from behind. Is he a true great or not? Maybe we'll finally find out this year.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
So I've had a day or 2 free and spent far too much just having a look round at discussions here and elsewhere. I will now try to collate some thoughts here.
Apparently Rosberg has done many more laps than Lewis in testing. That, and Nico being able to push Lewis extremely close, plus the more cerebral approach required to reach a race now, and the fact that Nico presumably isn't disadvantaged by a certain lady screwing with his mind like Lewis is, and it starts to look like the 14/1 then 9/1 odds could actually have been a wise investment. I would have probably placed my first ever bet but finances have been incredibly bad temporarily this month.
Alonso has apparently had much more running than Raikkonen. For all the buildup, I can't really see Raikkonen toppling Alonso, also due to Kimi having to (re)acclimatise to the team against the incumbent Alonso. That is not dissing Kimi and that wouldn't be the end of the world. If he can do at least as well as Jenson did against Hamilton in 2010, his reputation should be fine.
Ferrari reportedly are lacking to Mercedes in the region of 75bhp right now...
I'm thinking Jenson's views might be quite good to go on. It looks like he thinks McLaren are a bit behind. Do not be fooled into thinking he is bluffing/sandbagging. I made that mistake last year and paid a terrible price, being not that much less of a laughing stock in FGP 2013 than the series promoter himself.
Jenson also apparently thought that Williams could possibly have the best race pace of all at this stage. :bounce: :eek:
Button seems to be someone who simply tells the truth as he sees it in these cases, rather than playing games.
Flippin heck, where did Red Bull get that time the other day? Hopefully they won't be able to keep up that pace for more than a few corners at a time (yeah I won't feel too sorry if they don't get it all their way this year, sue me).
Sauber look quite cr@p but not many are surprised. I wish they'd go for a more retro black design rather than dark grey!
What of Massa setting the overall fastest Bahrain laptime of 2014?
Some are going so far to say that Williams, amazingly, have the best car, and whisper it, may be a serious threat for the WDC. I'm not sure, but that time looks fairly 'real'.
"So what" you say, "Force India were quickest for two days too". But that was with a 1:35. Felipe set a 1:32. I do think Mercedes can show a little more though, and Williams won't develop as well.
People say that Williams are almost a new team with all their major staff changes. In 2012 they surprised us, and even though Williams have a real habit of flattering to deceive in testing, they do look like they could do quite well.
Marussia look faster than Caterham, and seem around 1sec off Toro Rosso. Maybe they can nip at their heels.
I'm wondering whether Christian Horner will start bleating about changes "for the good of F1" (which just so happen to massively suit Red Bull) - i.e. Renault being allowed to do as much as they please after the freeze.
I'll add my voice again to say we don't want double points. Bernie should stop trying to pinch ideas from FGP!!!
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Well, what can I say about these tests. To be honest, it looks like they have made predicting even more difficult than before the tests.:p: More car problems than I have ever seen before, even though it seems like the gaps have finally come down a little bit.
I think the hardest thing of the season to predict is the disparity between engines. Before testing I had a hypothesis that all engine manufacturers should be competent enough not to allow huge gaps. But especially the first few days were eye-opening. Of course the gaps will gradually come down, but Renault has a deep learning curve.
It looks like for the start of the season Mercedes is in brilliant position to capitalize to get an advantage over, specifically, Ferrari and Red Bull.
It looks like other Mercedes-teams (McLaren, Force India, Williams) are also in a good position to get strong results.
It looks like Ferrari is its usual solid self from last few years - thereabouts/podium material, but not outstanding. Of course it is claimed Ferrari's engine is behind Mercedes', but at least it looks like it functions well and is reliable, so should allow to achieve at least decentish results.
Lotus indeed will have a slow start, like rjbetty's 2001 Benetton example.
Red Bull? Their winter tests remind a lot of McLaren 2004. But it looks like a tough start in any case unless they find a miracle solution like McLaren did in 2011 – they messed all winter tests while struggling, but at Melbourne were suddenly clearly second best.
Now, Red Bull is a team with great potential and we have seen them not really being fully up-to-speed early on before. But now with new regulations their learning curve seems to be steeper than ever before. I think you could say the Red Bull has most untapped potential of all, combined with Renault, but the matter is how quickly they can get themselves properly running. This will be make or break for the season. Before one day they do it, championships may have already been lost. It is not the matter of finishing 2nd or 4th in early races like in 2012, it is the matter of getting points at all and actually finishing races, which what McLaren's early 2004 was about.
Now, if I am looking at my predictions now that I drew up before winter tests... of course I have questions. The engine factor (both speed and reliability) may have been greater than I anticipated, which means that now I question – should I have for example swapped Lotus and Williams for 6th and 7th in WCC? Should McLaren be closer to the top than I predicted? Should Red Bull be further down from the title fight?
However, one thing is to predict early races, other thing the overall season of 19 races, because especially in a season after big regulation changes, pecking order can change a lot during the season – as teams learn a lot about how to untap the potential of their cars, and this time engines as well.
Looking at my prediction on a race-by-race basis again, I had Rosberg-Hamilton-Button as top 3 in WDC after the fourth race, Chinese GP. With Vettel 7th, even behind Hülkenberg. But from the European season onwards the state of the game started to change.
The big question is about Renault now. How much will it take time for RBR get back to the game, if they get there at all. And when will Lotus become fast, because some say they are impressed with Lotus' innovational design (trademark of Enstone factory)? What about Williams, the eternal impressive team of winter tests, who struggles to realize its potential in the racing season? What about especially Hülkenberg in the Force India?
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
Sauber look quite cr@p but not many are surprised. I wish they'd go for a more retro black design rather than dark grey!
What of Massa setting the overall fastest Bahrain laptime of 2014?
Some are going so far to say that Williams, amazingly, have the best car, and whisper it, may be a serious threat for the WDC. I'm not sure, but that time looks fairly 'real'.
"So what" you say, "Force India were quickest for two days too". But that was with a 1:35. Felipe set a 1:32. I do think Mercedes can show a little more though, and Williams won't develop as well.
People say that Williams are almost a new team with all their major staff changes. In 2012 they surprised us, and even though Williams have a real habit of flattering to deceive in testing, they do look like they could do quite well.
Yeah, it looks like Sauber is one of the teams, who is not going to have an outstanding start into 2014. It looks like they haven't managed a very good integration with Ferrari engine, and if Ferrari engine is down on power too as rumoured, it makes it a bit of a challenge for them.
Williams is a potential dark horse, but far from me be it to consider them as a title contender. However, I have been thinking about Bottas being a "surprise podium visitor" of 2014 for some time already. An interesting dream or thought to say. Everyone likes to talk about Massa and how the Brazilian is rejuvenated in a new team, but he will have his hands full with the young Finn I guess. Anyway, it should be one of the closer team-mate battles on the grid.
Williams was fast in 2012, as said, and it may be possible to sort of replicate that kind of season again. But it is important for them to capitalize on early-season opportunities, because over a full year especially the Renault-powered teams will get up-to-speed and will make competition more difficult.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
Ferrari reportedly are lacking to Mercedes in the region of 75bhp right now...
rj that is an unsubstantiated rumor, and wouldn't believe the doom and gloom being spewed by the media, or even Stefano Domenicali .
AMUS' Michael Schmidt along with every other journo in the first three rows has his own conspiracy theory:
Quote:
Ferrari holds back on purpose?
If Ferrari as in recent years again before a comeback? The answers in the paddock vary widely. Some believe that the backlog really is this second. The others can imagine that Ferrari has not revealed all the cards. The usually skeptical Alonso sprayed too much confidence. And at the round analysis revealed some inconsistencies.
Ferrari has never packed all peaks in a round. If you swept with full top speed over the finish line, was driven deliberately slowly to the rest of the round. In a Sektorbestzeit you could bet that the other two sectors in comparison to fell off. In a discipline Ferrari is already tip. Alonso managed with 339.6 km / h the highest top speed.
http://translate.google.de/translate?sl ... ml&act=url
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tazio
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
Ferrari reportedly are lacking to Mercedes in the region of 75bhp right now...
rj that is an unsubstantiated rumor, and wouldn't believe the doom and gloom being spewed by the media, or even Stefano Domenicali .
AMUS' Michael Schmidt along with every other journo in the first three rows has his own conspiracy theory:
[quote:25ho7gkz]
Ferrari holds back on purpose?
If Ferrari as in recent years again before a comeback? The answers in the paddock vary widely. Some believe that the backlog really is this second. The others can imagine that Ferrari has not revealed all the cards. The usually skeptical Alonso sprayed too much confidence. And at the round analysis revealed some inconsistencies.
Ferrari has never packed all peaks in a round. If you swept with full top speed over the finish line, was driven deliberately slowly to the rest of the round. In a Sektorbestzeit you could bet that the other two sectors in comparison to fell off. In a discipline Ferrari is already tip. Alonso managed with 339.6 km / h the highest top speed.
http://translate.google.de/translate?sl ... ml&act=url
Also:
Quote:
Domenicali brushed off rumours that the Ferrari engine is underpowered and heavier compared to its rivals, but admitted there was still work to do on the energy recovery system.
"First of all, I don't know [about the rumours] because I have heard so many numbers around it. I know what is for sure the situation on our side, and I can guarantee that what I heard are numbers that are throwing the dice in the air [and seeing what lands]!
"To be serious, I think that the most important thing we need to understand on our side is how to manage the balance between the electrical power, the ERS, the MGU-K and the battery. All those things have an effect in terms of horsepower and that's really something which I believe there is a lot of potential to take out."
[/quote:25ho7gkz]
Read more at http://en.espnf1.com/ferrari/motorsport ... eipii46.99
A fun look at how the Oz Gp will go.
Steveaki13 - Oz Gp Weekend.
Grid:
1. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes
2. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes
3. Kimi Raikkonen - Ferrari
4. Felipe Massa - Williams
5. Kev Magnussen - Mclaren
6. Nico Hulkenberg - Force India
7. Fernando Alonso - Ferrari
8. Jenson Button - McLaren
9. Valterri Bottas - Williams
10. Sergio Perez - Force India
11.Daniel Ricciardo - Red Bull
12. Adrian Sutil - Sauber
13. Romain Grosjean - Lotus
14. Esteban Gutierrez - Sauber
15. J E Vergne - Toro Rosso
16. Jules Bianchi - Marussia
17. Pastor Maldonado - Lotus
18. Danii Kyvat - Toro Rosso
19. Max Chilton - Marussia
20. Kamui Koabayshi - Caterham
21. Marcu Ericcson - Caterham
22. Sebastian Vettel - Red Bull * No Time
* Seb cant get the Red Bull out of the garage after problems in Saturday Practice.
Race Day
As the cars making their way around the green flag lap, Sutil's Sauber breaks down at the side of the track and only 21 take the start. Vettel starts in the pits to avoid the chaos.
So the 20 cars roar slightly quieter off the grid and head to turn one. Rosberg makes a stormer as does Hulkenberg, at turn one, Chilton and Kyvat collide and are both out early.
End of Lap 1 and its Rosberg, Hamilton, Massa, Hulkenberg, Raikkonen and Alonso the top 6.
By Lap 3 Ericcson pits after an issues and loses a lap. Lap 4 and Maldonado Blows an Engine and pulls of at turn 4.
Vettel is coming through the field and is up to 13th by Lap 5 out of the 18 that remain.
Fuel saving see's several drivers holding station, catching Perez out who rams Button on Lap 7. Button continues but Perez retires in the pits. JB is now 16th. Lap 9 and Gutierrez grinds to a holt meaning just 16 left and both Saubers are Out.
The first stops arrive and through the next few laps positions change. Hamilton leads, Massa now up to 2nd, Rosberg 3rd.
Kimi has an electrical problem and stops in the pits. while Vergne has lost time in the pits with a problem
Lap 15 and 15 remain. 1.Hamilton *, 2.Massa +7, 3.Rosberg, +11, 4.Alonso+ 21, 5.Magnussen +27, 6.Hulkenberg +32, 7.Ricciardo +41, 8.Bottas+ 42, 9.Grosjean +51, 10.Vettel +52, 11.Bianchi +1:01, 12. JE Vergne +1:06, 13. Kobayashi +1:16, 14. Button +1:18, 15. Ericcson +1 Lap.
Hamilton pulls away, but gear box failure on lap 19 sees Button retire for good. Seb battles hard but on Lap 23 problems return and he pulls into the garage.
Rosberg passes Massa on Lap 24, and the drivers push on after early fuel saving. Bianchi has a spin on Lap 25 sending Vergne wide and across the gravel. Both rejoin.
Lap 27 and second stops begin. Rosberg loses time, while Kobayashi gets a penalty for ignoring blue flags. Massa spins out into the gravel on Lap 29.
Lap 33 and 2nd pitstops are complete.
1. Hamilton *, 2. Alonso +23, 3. Rosberg + 28, 4. Magnussen+ 39, 5. Hulkenberg +43, 6. Bottas + 54, 7. Ricciardo + 1:06, 8.Grosjean +1:22, 9. JE Vergne +1 Lap, 10. Bianchi +1 Lap, 11. Kobayashi +1 Lap, 12. Ericcson+2 Laps
The race settles down but Bottas is catching Magnussen and Hulkenberg, and by Lap 37 We are down to 11 as Kobayshi parks his Caterham. A near miss on Lap 39 see's Bottas pass Hulkenberg.
Lap 43 and Ricciardo completes the expected miserable day for Red Bull retiring from 7th. Just one lap later Magnussen pulls off with Smoke pouring out of the engine. Ericsson meanwhile is slowing to around 10 seconds off the pace, desperate to keep it going.
Lap 43: 1. Hamilton *, 2.Alonso +29, 3. Rosberg +30, 4. Bottas +1:04, 5. Hulkenberg +1:11, 6. Grosjean +1 Lap, 7. Vergne +1 Lap
8. Bianchi +1 Lap, 9. Ericcson +3 Laps
Now Sebastian Vettel rejoins 20 laps down, but does some testing.
Lap 46 and amid the pitstops Alonso has a Gearbox issue and grinds to a halt. Seb pulls back in on Lap 48. The problem not fixed.
Lap 50 and pitstops over, there are just 8 laps to try and limp through to score some points.
Lap 51 1. Hamilton *, Rosberg +29, 3. Bottas + 1:07, 4. Hulkenberg +1:19, 5. Grosjean +1 Lap, 6. Vergne +1 Lap, 7. Bianchi +2 Laps, 8. Ericcson +3 Laps
Lewis eases off, and Nico brings the gap down while Vergne catches Grosjean.
Lap 54 and Vergne nurfs Grosjean and passes for 5th, Grosjean slows and has damage. He retires leaving just 7 cars lapping the circuit.
Lap 55 and Hulkenberg pits with an issues, but gets out again just ahead of Vergne.
Drama on the penultimate lap as Nico Rosberg slows and stops at turn 14.
The race is over and Lewis wins the opening race of the season.
Results
1. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes - *
2. Valterri Bottas - Williams + 0:59:96
3. Nico Hulkenberg - Force India +1 Lap
4. JE Vergne - Toro Rosso - +1 Lap
5. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes +2 Laps - DNF
6. Jules Bianchi - Marussia +2 Laps
7. Marcus Ericcson - Caterham +4 Laps
:p
There you go, what a race that was. :lips:
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
:spinhead: Bravo! Very good report.
Hopefully it will happen something like that. But I would prefer to guess more conservatively and be pleasantly surprised than vice versa (which has been the case all too often over the years...)
