Originally Posted by Rudy Tamasz
It is a complicated issue indeed and it is not what it seems. It is very far from the picture that the newspapers paint. "Lukashenko is pro-Russian and will sell Belarus the moment Russians come up with a decent bid." Not.
First, Lukashenko is a power freak and he used to nurse an idea of merging Belarus and Russia into a single state and becoming its president. When it did not work he decided to settle for ruling Belarus. Now he does just that and there is no way he is going to cede his power and state sovereignty Russians or anybody else. He tries to be an ally of Russia and does that pretty successfully. The word is that Belarus is dependent on Russian gas and oil, but it is only a part of the whole truth. Belarus has huge oil refineries where Russian oil get processed and the products are sold to the whole world, mostly Europe. The profits get split between Belarus and Russia and that is being done in a clandestine way. I.e. Belarus is an offshore zone for Russian tycoons. Same thing with arms trade. Russia will not sell arms to Sudan, but Belarus will. So Russia sells arms to Belarus at half price. Belarus sells it at full price and profits are shared again. It's a goldmine and this is Lukashenko's leverage against Russians. We are also the only remaining Russia's military ally and we have one of the most capable armies in the Eastern Europe and Russians have no choice but to pay a price for that. Lukashenko's is a rural type of guy, uneducated and ugly but cunny and armed with a set of animal instincts. He knows his trump cards and manipulates Russia pretty well. He also has an exit strategy. Once his relations Russia go sour, he only needs to let the opposition take part in the eletions and maybe win a couple sits, and EU and the U.S. will have to start talking to him. So it's like that no merger with Russia is envisaged any time soon.
Although I would frankly prefer Belarus to be a neutral state, on good terms with both East and West but not being a satellite of either. Oh yeah, and I still dislike Lukashenko. ;)