Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Heyhey,
I'm doing another 2014 season on Grand Prix 2 if anyone's bored enough ;) , but this time I posted it in the simulations forum as I thought it would be too much off topic and clog up this thread maybe...
viewtopic.php?f=103&t=160296
Also,
Marussia-Ferrari Season Preview
Well I had hoped to get this done before testing but anyway... Now Marussia are a team that come in for a lot of stick with people saying they should go etc... How mean! I for one am very glad they're there. There presence shows a lot of things: 1.How professional and on a high level the teams are these days - I mean just check out all the super duper reliability these days. We have become institutionalised (is that the right word to use? Have I even spelt it right?) by it, to the point where Christian Horner and dj think it's really really bad that you might get a race or two this year where maybe only 11 cars finish! Wow what a terrible thing. I don't know how F1 survived all those years!!! We can't have engine failures making the races unpredicatble and stuff! *bangs fist in protest* [sarcasm off]
Time was when AGS could turn up with a real ragtag crew, stick the ubiquitous customer Ford in the back and off they go, and maybe even get a point (top 6 back then remember). I think now that if Marussia were operating as they are now in the 1988 season, they would have a real shot at 4th in the championship, as a guess. This is also part of the reason to the answer to why they couldn't repeat what Sauber did in their debut season, as many people do ask. I remember Peter Sauber himself saying a long time ago (might even be as far back as 1999!) that there's no way Sauber would have been able to have that sort of debut season now (meaning 99-2000 whenever he said it) as F1 had just moved on so much.
When the new teams joined, I thought they would establish themselves, and over 5 years simply move up into the midfield. I actually think now that a team does well to simply remain in the sport and not drop back at all. This is because the playing field is so uneven, absurdly so. Marussia have spent the years strengthening themselves on a relatively frugal budget. I think they've actually been very smart, living within their means and not racking up huge avoidable reckless debts. I actually don't know how anyone could have done much better in their situation, with their resources, experience and funds. I actually now think they are better run than Caterham, pound-for-pound.
The team's growing infrastructure and stability is reflected in the fact that for the first time, both drivers are retained for a consecutive season. This is great for continuity.
A big plus is the new Ferrari engine, said to have good consumption even though it may be lacking in outright power to Mercedes? I read recently that the Cosworth engine was a full 80bhp down on Mercedes - does anyone know if this is true? If so, then Marussia should be boosted by over half a second through the engine alone. The drivers will also improve with experience. And the extra cash from coming 10th last year has helped the team stay alive. They also seem to have designed a fairly decent car for where they're at. If things go well, they could nip at the heels of Toro Rossos if the Renault engines struggle, and even maybe get close to Gutierrez's Sauber on occasion. Maybe even a Lotus on a bad day if they do turn out to be struggling.
I think that Marussia will probably be ahead of Caterham on merit definitvely for the first time this season. I also like their colour scheme and the cars always look good even though I'm sure the colours could be done a better way. A team I am rooting for and feel deserve their place in F1.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
I included the double points for the final round (as mich as I despise that rule) and this is what I came up with
For surprises, I think Marussia and Caterham really will profit greatly in the expected early season reliability problems, Bianchi I think will make the odd show in Q2 and Marussia will again nick 10th spot in the constructors
As for the uppper echelons, I've got Lewis Hamilton to win in a narrow 3 way fight despite having Alonso win that double points decider, Vettel comng up after a late season charge after Red Bull sort their car out but despite that, its enough for hamilton to nick the title by a mere 3 points. Ferrari may score more race wins but I think it'll be the Merc's consistency that wins the day
I think Williams will be the surprise package, Massa to steal a couple of early season podiums as Williams take advantage of the Mercedes powerplants to nick 5th int he constructors from a disappointing Lotus who are et down mainly by Maldonado
DRIVERS CHAMPIONSHIP
1. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes ................ 296pts (4 wins)
2. Fernando Alonso - Ferrari ................ 293pts (6 wins)
3. Sebastian Vettel - Red Bull ................ 289pts (4 wins)
4. Kimi Raikkonen - Ferrari ................ 171pts (2 wins)
5. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes ................ 169pts (2 wins)
6. Jenson Button - McLaren ................ 161pts (1 win)
7. Felipe Massa - Williams ................ 106pts
8. Romain Grosjean - Lotus ................ 102pts
9. Daniel Ricciardo - Red Bull ................ 82pts
10. Kevin Magnussen (R) - McLaren ................ 64pts
11. Nico Hulkenberg - Force India ................ 52pts
12. Valtteri Bottas - Williams ................ 47pts
13. Adrian Sutil - Sauber ................ 41pts
14. Sergio Perez - Force India ................ 30pts
15. Jean-Eric Vergne - Toro Rosso ................ 29pts
=16. Esteban Gutierrez - Sauber ................ 24pts (Gutierrez ahead on tie breaker)
=16. Pastor Maldonado - Lotus ................ 24pts
18. Danil Kvyat (R) - Toro Rosso ................ 23pts
19. Jules Bianchi - Marussia ................ 7pts
20. Kamui Kobayashi - Caterham .............. 4pts
=21. Marcus Ericsson (R) - Caterham ................ 3pts (Ericsson ahead on tie breaker)
=21. Max Chilton - Marussia ................ 3pts
CONSTRUCTORS CHAMPIONSHIP
1. Mercedes ................ 465pts (6 wins)
2. Ferrari ................ 464pts (8 wins)
3. Red Bull ............... 371pts (4 wins)
4. McLaren ............... 225pts (1 win)
5. Williams ............... 153pts
6. Lotus ............... 126pts
7. Force India ............... 82pts
8. Sauber ............... 65pts
9. Toro Rosso ............... 52pts
10. Marussia ............... 10pts
11. Caterham ............... 7pts
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Thanks for that Dazzla, wouldn't mind if it happened that way. :)
So how about ranking the teams where we think they might be overall, or drivers?
I think
1.Mercedes
2.Ferrari - close
3.Red Bull - will use politics to get unfair advantage to mostly negate fair disadvantage
4.McLaren - good, able to win/challenge for wins, but not WDC. More like 2011/12 (but without Lewis)
5.Williams
6.Force India
7.Lotus - Now see them right there with Force India, or maybe ahead of Williams but no higher
8.Sauber
9.Toro Rosso
10.Marussia
11.Caterham
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
5. Lotus
6. Force India
7. Williams
8. Sauber
9. Toro Rosso
10. Marussia
11. Caterham
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
Thanks for that Dazzla, wouldn't mind if it happened that way. :)
So how about ranking the teams where we think they might be overall, or drivers?
I think
1.Mercedes
2.Ferrari - close
3.Red Bull - will use politics to get unfair advantage to mostly negate fair disadvantage
Folks, I'm seriously starting to wonder what all that vitriol against Red Bull is all about :confused: Just because they did a stellar job for four years, everybody seems to think they need to pile the hate on them. I seriously wonder what 'unfair advantage' they are supposed to get to offset a broken engine?
As far as I can remember, RB have never done anything that wasn't perfectly fine before they even arrived in F1. They've stretched the rules, like every other team before them, but that's about it. In contrast to the likes of Ferrari, Tyrell, BAR, McLaren, Benetton, Renault they don't have a history of outright cheating or blatant race fixing, so if anything they're catholic school girls in comparison to things we've seen in the past.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by dj_bytedisaster
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
Thanks for that Dazzla, wouldn't mind if it happened that way. :)
So how about ranking the teams where we think they might be overall, or drivers?
I think
1.Mercedes
2.Ferrari - close
3.Red Bull - will use politics to get unfair advantage to mostly negate fair disadvantage
Folks, I'm seriously starting to wonder what all that vitriol against Red Bull is all about :confused: Just because they did a stellar job for four years, everybody seems to think they need to pile the hate on them. I seriously wonder what 'unfair advantage' they are supposed to get to offset a broken engine?
As far as I can remember, RB have never done anything that wasn't perfectly fine before they even arrived in F1. They've stretched the rules, like every other team before them, but that's about it. In contrast to the likes of Ferrari, Tyrell, BAR, McLaren, Benetton, Renault they don't have a history of outright cheating or blatant race fixing, so if anything they're catholic school girls in comparison to things we've seen in the past.
When I said unfair advantage, I meant that Red Bull and Renault are seeking special dispensation from the FIA to have more time to sort their reliability after the freeze.
They had the same time and oportunity as did Mercedes and Ferrari. It is not fair they should have more. I can't see F1 allowing Renault to be so bad, so they will allow Renault everything they need to be more 'equal' to the other engines. I think this is more fake and artificial and against the spirit of what F1 is supposed to be. than anything else that has gone on lately.
Red Bull and Renault are seeming to want their cake and eat it. They ploughed all their efforts into last year while others were preparing for this. Others made the sacrifice and should now be allowed to reap the rewards in 2014. Red Bull-Renault want to have it both ways. I have almost no doubt the dispensation will be allowed.
Renault were previously allowed to increase their reliability/performance under the old rules, while being able to keep their fuel-consumption and driveability advantage over other engines.
If Renault should be allowed more time, so should Mercedes and Ferrari to make more developments and refinements - so then it's fair.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
I agree entirely with your views rjb !
But F1 is afraid of loseing 2 ,2 car team so will buckle to RB !
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by dj_bytedisaster
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjbetty
3.Red Bull - will use politics to get unfair advantage to mostly negate fair disadvantage
Folks, I'm seriously starting to wonder what all that vitriol against Red Bull is all about :confused: Just because they did a stellar job for four years, everybody seems to think they need to pile the hate on them. I seriously wonder what 'unfair advantage' they are supposed to get to offset a broken engine?
As far as I can remember, RB have never done anything that wasn't perfectly fine before they even arrived in F1. They've stretched the rules, like every other team before them, but that's about it. In contrast to the likes of Ferrari, Tyrell, BAR, McLaren, Benetton, Renault they don't have a history of outright cheating or blatant race fixing, so if anything they're catholic school girls in comparison to things we've seen in the past.
dj, I have no problem with Red Bull or Sebastian's success at all, just as I never did with Schumacher (or Sebastien Loeb)! (I know that's probably quite unusual).
I don't at all hate Red Bull, or any team or driver, though I do dislike aspects.
Many of us congratulated Vettel when he sealed the title in India last year, cos we recognised he did a bang-good job. Though I do think Vettel easily performed at the highest level of anyone last year, I am not trying to take anything away by saying it's much easier to do so in the best car - I feel that's simply the truth. I do think Alonso would be capable of doing a slightly better job, and that Hamilton has the latent talent to do better than both. But no-one else, including Kimi (though Kimi is one of the drivers about who I have the biggest question mark, not being sure how I rate them, others including Maldonado and Kobayashi).
With Fernando now declining a bit imo, I rate Seb as currently doing the best job of all. I am no Garry Walker and do recognise Seb's talent and rate him between 1st-3rd. I think Hamilton has the greatest ability of anyone, but nowhere near the brains of Seb (though I think Lewis is at a good level there) and so Seb manages everything better overall. I think Seb can manage a season in the best car than even Schumacher could.
As for Red Bull, I also feel they optimise things better and are more 'invincible' than even Ferrari 10 years ago, which I respect them for. I did have a slight awe in how Adrian Newey and his team came up with such a good car in 2012 despite being so restricted by the rules, then coming up with "10% more downforce" in 2013.
But I don't particularly like the arrogance and attitude of the team, and how they seem to have a sense of entitlement, such as to keep developing their engine after the freeze, even though they didn't make the sacrifices the others did, thus wanting their cake and eat it. Unfortunately, due to the team not making themselves that likeable etc. I now won't touch their drink whereas around 2003-2005 I used to fairly regularly. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way, so maybe Red Bull need to think about this - their ways have actually had a negative effect.
And yet, this isn't vitriol. I believe that stuff is really bad/unhealthy (I mean vitriol). It's more disappointment I feel.
Btw, to be fair, I made it a point to drink a can of Red Bull before every exam I did in college in 2003. I truly believe it made a real difference for the good. Though checking my shoulders and back, I was to find not even a single feather.
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
*as Septic Peg from Brian Conley, waving hands over crystal ball*
Oooooooooo... I predict... *continues waving hands over ball* ...that the World Drivers' Championship winner... Will be... a man. ...Oooooooooo... (that's more specific than Septic Peg's famous actual lottery prediction!)
(that rules out Seb then)
Ooooooooo... I can see... that the winner is driving... a car... *continues waving hands over crystal ball*
I also see a number... ...it's the winning driver's number! ......Ooooooooooooooooh... and the number is.........
....on the caaaaaaaaaar.
There will be... many overtaking manoeveurs... all using DRS...
Re: 2014 F1 season prediction
A lot of posts there.
Its simple for me I hate Red Bull. :p ;)
(That saved a bit of typing) :p
