Oh wow I just wrote a long team by team preview and reached the final team when internet exlorer disappeared abruptly and - it's gone! That's a shame as I was in the flow today - no writer's block here!
I'll do it in Notepad next time and copy and paste - if I can find it in me to do it again!
*Sighs*
(also I can see the typo in the title. I blame the keyboard)
Daft! No wonder you are a Matthew Wilson fan.
TOP TEAMS
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RED BULL RACING - RENAULT
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Well, Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull look like the favourites again. I think Vettel will win it again. If he qualifies on pole for the majority of the races, he should be fine. If not, it's a chance for him to conquer another area which has been suspect in the past - his ability to race in the pack, and drag the car to victories when it isn't the best. I'm very confident that for his next trick, he will master this area too.
Mark Webber I suspect, should close the gap to Vettel slightly, but with other teams catching up, he could be left vulnerable. We'll see how many years he has left. I think he could retire in 2013 or even 2014, so Jean Eric Vergne has a chance to develop more at Toro Rosso first.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 1st
Vettel: 1st
Webber: 5th (or 4th)
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MCLAREN - MERCEDES
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Fair play to them for having a good looking car without a 2012 nose. It certainly looks like McLaren are in a better place to close the gap this year. The only trouble is, as much as the double-diffuser ban will affect Red Bull, it might affect McLaren even more! Remember Silverstone last year. They seemed to struggle more than anyone else with the loss. I do believe they will close on Red Bull though. Maybe they can even take the constructors' championship this time.
Jenson Button will not get any slower this year. Even if Hamilton finds his form, I don't think Jenson will be much fazed and should score more good wins. But I can't see a Button/McLaren combination, excellent as it is, toppling the Vettel/Red Bull partnership.
I just don't know what to expect from Lewis Hamilton this season, but I will say it should be better than 2011 and I expect him to finish higher this year. In his favour, I believe if a McLaren driver were to take the title this year, it would be Hamilton. But again Hamilton+McLaren < Vettel+Red Bull this year I think, however close it is. I expect both drivers to take top 3 placings this year. I have no idea if he will outscore Button this time.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 2nd
Button: 2nd or 3rd
Hamilton: 2nd or 3rd
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FERRARI
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Well their car looks pretty **** and doesn't perform much better just now. But Ferrari are too big a team to slip down and struggle. They will recover and be winners this year. Considering they would have finished 3rd even in 2009 if Massa had been around for all the races, I think 3rd once again is their likely result.
It will be interesting to see how Fernando Alonso copes. He had shown in 2008 this situation of machinery being sub-standard but not showing IMPROVEMENT can wear even him down. I'm thinking Hockenheim 2008 though I wasn't watching F1 then, I just heard about that race. If the car has a hope of a win, he will of course take it.
I feel that Felipe Massa will reduce the gap to Alonso this year and show improvement, but it will be too little too late and I expect his exit to be announced before the end of the season.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 3rd
Alonso: 4th (or 5th)
Massa: 7th (6th-8th too close to call)
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MERCEDES
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This is one of the most interesting prospects for me this year. I've been disappointed too many times over the years so I will say Mercedes will close the gap to Ferrari and maybe even challenge them for 3rd in the constructors. I believe this team will come good and be champions eventually. If that seems impossible, think of Red Bull 10 years ago and the hopeless mess they were in (as Jaguar), or even how they were in 2008.
The signs look good, and the gap will surely close this time. But I won't get too excited. Instead I predict a season more like 2010, as the team surely returns to the podium.
This is crunch time for Michael Schumacher. I will predict that he will make the podium this time, and it will be one of the most popular and feel-good moments of the season. A win looks out of reach, but with a better car (like the 2012 Mercedes may be) he could have done it in Canada last year. It was only Schumacher's rustiness that caused so many mistakes last year. The really encouraging thing is that without these mistakes, he would have scored several strong results which would have been enough to give him more points than Rosberg (and be close to Massa even!). The errors were not Sato like, but rather he kept being just a few percent out. So with the errors ironed out by another year under his belt, surely Michael can outscore Rosberg this time round.
As for Nico, he will again outqualify Michael I'm sure, but the improvements that Mercedes look set to make will return him to the podium and relight his fire. It looks good.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 4th
Schumacher: 6th (now THAT is sticking my neck out! I think 8th is more likely though...)
Rosberg: 8th (6th-8th)
Oh wow, I've got to do my Renault and Force India for a third time now. Might just jack it in for the night.
*sighs and grits teeth slightly at all the wasted time...*
I think this year is going to pivot on what McLaren can produce.
The RB is going to be the best car out there IMHO but the gap will be closed and IF McLaren turn out a car that can challenge the Bull, then I see a battle royal between Seb and Lewis and it's no secret that I think when under real pressure, Vettel will crack. Then we will have Jenson in the mix. He's getting stronger and stronger with his natural talent, fast style and maturity combining to offer a very real challenge for the title.
Webber will close the gap but will be fighting for the 3rd step most of the time.
Behind these 2 teams, the story gets a little muddled. Where re Ferrari? I suspect a battle royal this year between Nico and Alonso with Webber dropping into the melee and schumacher sometimes being fast enough to challenge / take some of them out.
As for the rest, I have no idea. Have Williams turned it around with all the changes at Grove recently? The car shows some promise. What about FI? Can they get in the Ferrari and Mercedes mix? Lotus suggest they have a car that could produce a surprise and then we have the perenial midfielders Torro.
If I have to nail my colours to the mast, my heart says it's going to be Lewis's title this year. I'm not listening to my head :D
I think Vettel is still favourite for the WDC especially as if going by testing RBR still has got a marginal advantage. But the fight for WCC could be interesting, being more like what we had in 2010 rather than 2011. So Webber really has to stop underperforming, because McLaren has two very good drivers and even if Vettel is too much for them to beat, Webber has to work hard not to lose ground in WCC.
Behind them we have another potentially interesting battle - Mercedes and Ferrari. We may discuss whether in the opening races Ferrari may get outraced by Force India or someone else (like in the beginning of 2011 Ferrari was outraced by Renault), but I think over a full season one would certainly expect them to be at least in Top4. But can Mercedes perform well enough to capitalize on Ferrari's troubles and beat them even over a full season? One area of concern for Ferrari and hope for Mercedes is the continued underperformance of Massa. Even if Alonso is too hard to beat for Merc drivers, they can both hope to keep Massa behind and hence capitalize in WCC.
I don't think Vettel should be expected to crack, when there is a tight title battle going on. Going by history Hamilton is more likely to crack.Quote:
Originally Posted by Knock-on
I think last year Lewis was OTT and expected people to jump out of the way. With the changes in his personal life, and another year under his belt, I hope he will be aggressive with a bit more maturity.
Don't you think he might be a little distracted this year ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Knock-on
I agree. It's fairly safe to assume Red Bull haven't produced a dog of a car so they'll be right up there. The question is whether anyone has managed to close the gap or eliminate it altogether. So far, although it's obviously still early, McLaren look the team most likely to take the fight to the champions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Knock-on
I'd love to see Mark Webber back challenging for the title again, but while he may be a factor I suspect it will come down to Vettel, Button and Hamilton. Vettel had the car and ability to pull out a gap at the very start last year which tended to set the pattern for the races. If he's prevented from doing that this year he'll find he has a real fight on his hands.