Which Teams will still be in F1 in 10 years?

I saw this on another website and thought it would be a interesting discussion.

So go back 10 years to 2002 and I make it that only 4 teams remain in F1 still as the same teams. There are a couple that have changed skins, but as actual same teams on the entry list I make it 4 remain and one of those has been via another name.

2002 Teams
Ferrari
Mclaren
Williams
Renault
Sauber
BAR
Toyota
Jaguar
Jordan
Minardi
Arrows

2012 Teams
Ferrari
Mclaren
Williams
Lotus
Sauber
Mercedes
Red Bull
Force India
Toro Rosso
Caterham
Marussia
HRT

So Ferrari, Mclaren and Williams remain unchanged while Sauber still exist but still after a stint as BMW.

So looking forward to the 2022 season given the huge changes in the last 10 years who do you see still being in F1 in a decades time?

For me

Ferrari and Mclaren are certain entrys in 2022.

Every one else is fluid.
Williams and Sauber = can't see the two owners still involved in 10 years time, so they may have sold the teams on or gone bust.

Mercedes - Could easily do a BMW and Toyota if success doesn't arrive.

Red Bull - Should still be here, but could sell up

Toro Rosso - Will be sold on by then

Force India - They have had 5 names since 2002 (Jordan, Midland, MF1, Spyker and Force India) so the likely hood of them remaining unchanged for 10 years is unlikely.

lotus - This seems like a team that will be around, but not in the same guise. i.e the Toleman, Benetton, Renault team should remain but not as Lotus.

The three new teams are all likley to fold in 10 years espicially HRT and Marussia.

Although Caterham stands a chance.

So what do you think?

Well, motorsport historically has always been very volatile. After manufacturers' recent exits from F1 and Peugeot's sudden exist from LeMans racing just last week, I can believe now that anything can happen. However, it seems like in most cases only team ownership and team name are likely to change. Historically, relatively few teams exit the sport. From the 2002 cohort, only the former Toyota and Arrows teams have left completely. I can see some of the backmarker teams exiting, as it had been happening sometimes in history, but most teams should linger around in one form or another.

I pretty much agree with your predictions, aki13. Ferrari and McLaren are certainly the only teams I would expect to remain in F1 that long in their current form.

Red Bull might be one that has a chance of staying around. They look like modern era Benetton, who owned quite a successful team for 15 years. Has RBR another 10 years in them? Maybe sounds like a long shot. But the point here is that Red Bull has been very actively investing in motorsports for a long time already, sponsoring some team/driver in almost every category. I am not sure if Red Bull owns an F1 team in 10 years' time, but one could certainly expect them to be at least some kind of a sponsor.

I am wondering about Williams. By 10 years' time Frank Williams will surely have retired, but will the name of the team be kept that long and what are the plans of the younger generation (Parr, Wolff, etc)? They are trying to make the organization as a stable and viable long-term business (hybrid technology, etc), but with lack of results may still not survive without major buyout.

As has been said, Ferrari and McLaren must be pretty much certainties unless a breakway championship actually materialises within the next 10 years. Beyond that, its anyone's guess who else will still be around. I would expect Red Bull to be on the grid assuming that they are at least moderately sucssessful. It wouldn't surprise me if Mercedes is still around. The fact that they came in while other manufacturers were leaving left right and centre could suggest they are in for the long haul. I'm also going to take a punt on Lotus (formerly Renault) still being on the grid as Lotus!

Since the world ends this year, I'd say none of them.

Ferrari will still be here, unless things in Italy rapidly deteriorate.
McLaren will be around, too.
Williams will not survive 4 years, unless somehow they pull out something special with the big rule changes coming up. If they don't they'll be done within two seasons. Someone will buy the carcass and continue as a struggling team. Eventually it will be liquidated.
Marussia and HRT are unlikely to make it to 2014.

Red Bull will still be here, but perhaps it will have some manufacturer backing.
Lotus, Sauber (manufacturer) , Caterham, Force India (manufacturer), STR, will all survive under different ownership, some will be taken by manufacturers.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by aki13

The three new teams are all likley to fold in 10 years espicially HRT and Marussia.

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HRT isn't likely to last the next 10 weeks let alone 10 years.

You could argue that McLaren hasn't been around in the same guise over the last 10 years as the shareholding has changed several times over the past decade, the only thing that makes them different is that the new owners have not insisted on a name change.

Otherwise I pretty much agree. If Williams survives and gets sold on I suspect the name will stay the same purely because the brand is one of the strongest assets of the team.

Ferrari and McLaren will remain, in eternal battle forever. The rest will come and go.

I make it more like nine still around. I mean, the management has changed at Williams, but you don't count them as different
....

Same name
Ferrari
McLaren
Williams
Sauber


Name changes
Renault
->Lotus
BAR
->Mercedes
Jaguar
->Red Bull
Jordan
->Force India
Minardi
->Toro Rosso

New
Caterham
Marussia
HRT

Gone
Toyota
Arrows