Famine in the West

[Hazell B]

Farmer John Gossop has written a book about what he thinks we will all face in or around the year 2025 - famine. He claims with an estimated 8 billion people and more land used to grow biofuels, we will be either starving or without light, heat and power. He is, in short, in a flap about land leaving agriculture and moving over to biofuels, houses and private ownership.

His website is http://www.peakfood.co.uk (take a look at the about page first, then it all makes better sense)

It's a subject I'm already a bit interested in, so would welcome your views. It's obviously a subject we'll all be interested in by 2024 if Mr Gossop's right :s

[Drew]

If he's right, me thinks it'd be a good idea to become a farmer in 2020 ;)

[veeten]

time to hit the supermarket and stock up. you never know... ;) :p :

[Magnus]

The more people in society that thinks it will all go to *** the better it is i think. In a society that is going to **** no one has interest in talking about it. Struggling for your life leaves little to identifying possible coming problems or whether or not you are supressed...
The more conspirations out there you can find, the more safe you can feel! And if you can not find any conspiration theories or doomesday profecies, then you are probably in trouble...

[jim mcglinchey]

At least it'll cure the Planetaty Portliness Problem ( copyright Jim ) ...but seriously though, have you watched Chuck Heston in Soylent Green lately?

[maxu05]

I think if more people grew some vegetables in their back garden the better. It will add more plants to clean the air. It will also get people getting outside and relating to the earth more, and you will also have some fresh vegetables to enjoy. I live in a unit in China, so, space is quite limited, but I have a decent sized balcony, so, I am starting to grow some tomatoes, some pumpkin and some spring onions. This might not fight off the global warming, or reduce pollution, but it's a small start. Imagine if everyone grew some type of vegetable or plants. I think we are too reliant on supermarkets these days. Buy a packet of seeds, get some dirt in a plant pot, and grow some stuff yourself.

[BDunnell]

I tend to find apocalyptic predictions of any sort rather exaggerated, but, nonetheless, this is an interesting issue.

[Breeze]

Frankly I thing Farmer Gossop is full of organic fertilizer. Nuclear power, solar energy, hydrogen fuel cell technology, hydro and hydrothermal energy, hydroponics, wind turbine generated electricity.............I could go on, but hopefully you begin to see how may known alternatives to his scenario there are and how he must have conveniently ignored these in order to sell books.

Then, there are the as yet undiscovered soloutions. I suppose if the scientifically curious among us all quit we'd be stuck in Farmer Gossop's timeline, but how likely is that?

[Hazell B]

It's funny you should mention the organic fertilizer, Breeze ;)

Mr Gossop, or John as I know him, isn't at all organic. He's a chemical farmer just the same as most others. He also grabbed my offer of £5000 cash for a field only 18 months or so ago, knowing full well it was leaving the farming industry for good. Only after we'd signed on the dotted line did he ask if we were planning to keep our ponies on it, or perhaps build a house. As it happens it's partly for growing biomass for us to burn ... and he didn't seem at all bothered by that fact once he'd pocketed our money :mark:

Having said that, he does have a point about UK food production being hit by the more profitable, sure-fire crops such as willow, grasses and sugarbeet for fuels. One of my friends ripped out hundreds of acres of crop to grow willow a few years ago. It's a sure wage for him, improves the fox population (he's a Hunt Field Master and also deals in Hunter horses) and is a very easy crop to grow. He now spends less time farming and has more Hunt meets on his land, which he's paid to host. If they all did that, we'd soon starve :s

[Erki]

I wonder how did we live before the agriculture. Sometimes I wish the bounty of wild "produce" would come back. If you were thrown into a deep forest, how would you survive? (Or would you even thrive?) What would you eat? I imagine there are... some berries? Maybe nuts? Can't think of any more right here now.

Where did all the potatoes and corn and tomatoes and stuff we now grow in crops originate from at all?

Animals and birds and fish get their food straight from the source with no sowing and reaping, why should we toil around on crops?

[J4MIE]

I wonder how did we live before the agriculture. Sometimes I wish the bounty of wild "produce" would come back. If you were thrown into a deep forest, how would you survive? (Or would you even thrive?) What would you eat? I imagine there are... some berries? Maybe nuts? Can't think of any more right here now.

You obviously don't watch Ray Mears ;)

Mushrooms, truffles, fruit (apples etc), leaves, roots for starters. Fish in rivers, etc.

You also of course have insects, birds, small mammals like mice/voles etc, rabbits and then larger ones like deer.

I sometimes think it'd be quite fun to have an adventure like that, but I'm sure I would not be very good at it :(

[SOD]

You obviously don't watch Ray Mears ;)

Mushrooms, truffles, fruit (apples etc), leaves, roots for starters. Fish in rivers, etc.

You also of course have insects, birds, small mammals like mice/voles etc, rabbits and then larger ones like deer.

I sometimes think it'd be quite fun to have an adventure like that, but I'm sure I would not be very good at it :(


Ray has decades of experience of living in the wild. still salivating at the pig roast.

[Alexamateo]

Having said that, he does have a point about UK food production being hit by the more profitable, sure-fire crops such as willow, grasses and sugarbeet for fuels. One of my friends ripped out hundreds of acres of crop to grow willow a few years ago. It's a sure wage for him, improves the fox population (he's a Hunt Field Master and also deals in Hunter horses) and is a very easy crop to grow. He now spends less time farming and has more Hunt meets on his land, which he's paid to host. If they all did that, we'd soon starve :s

I wouldn't worry about that. My dad was a farmer growing up, and for a while, soybeans were all the rage and brought the best prices, etc., so we raised beans. There were some lamenting that no cotton was being grown (losing ties to the "old South" and all that.) No matter, in a few short years, the price of beans dropped dramatically, and cotton came roaring back as the plant of choice, bringing far and away the best prices. In the end, we planted mostly cotton while rotating beans in periodically in order to fix nitrogen in the soil.

The point is, the free market will drive decisions and the right balance of food and fuel crops will be achieved at some point in the future.

[leopard]

As one of agriculture countries the soybean scarcity in domestic market seems ironic that we have to import this commodity from US. Local farmer seems reluctant to grow soybean relating to price fluctuation that makes this commodity unprofitable. The govt is expected to issue better regulation to protect this commodity to be self supporting industry.

The idea of plant rotation from a commodity to another would be great idea to sustain the soil chemical fertility and the structure. I am not sure that combining an annual plant (dies in one year) like soybean with perennial plant (live more than two years) like cotton, commonly happens. As long as the combination is economically profitable, we can just go ahead with it, but focusing on either of annual or perennial plants seems a discourse deserves further observation.

[555-04Q2]

I think if more people grew some vegetables in their back garden the better. It will add more plants to clean the air.

Small plants do not conttribute to oxygen in the air. Trees and forests do. Another problem is newly planted trees do not produce oxygen in required volume, they actually produce more nitrogen than oxygen for the first few decades. Only existing, historical forest areas create the oxygen we require hence cutting them down is an irreversible problem in the short term and mid term. Newly planted forests take decades to produce more oxygen than they do nitrogen. In other words, we need to stop cutting down our forests.

[Alexamateo]

The idea of plant rotation from a commodity to another would be great idea to sustain the soil chemical fertility and the structure. I am not sure that combining an annual plant (dies in one year) like soybean with perennial plant (live more than two years) like cotton, commonly happens. As long as the combination is economically profitable, we can just go ahead with it, but focusing on either of annual or perennial plants seems a discourse deserves further observation.

Cotton in the US is an annual and you have to re-plant every year.

[Hazell B]

I am not sure that combining an annual plant (dies in one year) like soybean with perennial plant (live more than two years) like cotton, commonly happens.

That's the problem, the plants used to produce biofuels take years to get started then provide a crop for maybe twenty years or more. In the UK and most cooler countries with good rain, that's willow and miscanthus (big grasses) mainly. They're not very good for wildlife, either. So, rotations with food are pretty much impossible.

555, are you sure small trees produce nitrogen more than oxygen? I grow trees and hedges for a living and I've always been told that young, fast growing woody plants produce oxygen the fastest aged five to twentyfive (when they are growing at their strongest) then slow down with age - just like all living things do.

[leopard]

I don't know that the small trees produce more nitrogen than oxygen. Both of them are macronutrient for the trees to grow. Perhaps the young trees required more nitrogen than old trees for their metabolism because it's essential substance to form chlorophyll and considering the active phase of plant for growing was when they were young.

The most applicable method of combining short and long aged of plants is intercropping, We can mix them in the same period while waiting for the main crop produce their product we can also grow annual plant in the unused space.

[555-04Q2]

555, are you sure small trees produce nitrogen more than oxygen? I grow trees and hedges for a living and I've always been told that young, fast growing woody plants produce oxygen the fastest aged five to twentyfive (when they are growing at their strongest) then slow down with age - just like all living things do.

Thats what I was told by a forestry expert in the Richards Bay Area in KZN (during my final school year on a "field trip") who plants trees for a living to be sold to the mills for production of paper. Aparently, planting more trees is not a short term solution but a looooong term one. The best thing to do is stop cutting down our forests like we are doing at an alarming rate in the Amazon.

[555-04Q2]

Forgot to add, new trees are still growing and hence produce more nitrogen while mature trees slow down their nitrogen production and produce more oxygen.

[cosmicpanda]

Surely all plants still convert carbon dioxide to oxygen through photosynthesis, regardless of nitrogen output. But I thought plants absorbed nitrogen, not released it?

It might be a different issue but if you look at this diagram of the nitrogen cycle, it shows that it's bacteria, not plants, that release nitrogen into the atmosphere.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/de/Nitrogen_Cycle.jpg

[anthonyvop]

This reminds me of that book "The Population Bomb" The Population Bomb by Paul R. Ehrlich. A best-selling work, it predicted disaster for humanity due to overpopulation and the "population explosion". The book predicted that "in the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death", that nothing can be done to avoid mass famine greater than any in the history, and radical action is needed to limit the overpopulation.

[Hazell B]

Aparently, planting more trees is not a short term solution but a looooong term one. The best thing to do is stop cutting down our forests like we are doing at an alarming rate in the Amazon.

Yes, that's all well and good, but it has NOTHING to do with the subject :confused:

The point is that large areas of traditional farmland used to produce our food is being lost to growing new biofuels, so we will perhaps end up having either power or food, but not both. The rain forest isn't currently used to produce food, so is another topic. Areas of rain forest already cleared for food production being replanted for fuels is yet another topic, but again not quite as clear cut as the UK agriculture one this thread is about.

[Erki]

Nah, why worry? We shall soon get all our sustenance from pills anyway. And imagine how many pills a biofueled machine can produce. ;)

[maxu05]

If there are any survivors of famine and flood, and all the worst things that are written about in books (armageddon, excuse the spelling) etc. there will be 2 things that will live that plague the earth today. Cochroaches and McDonalds :laugh:

[Breeze]

Yes, that's all well and good, but it has NOTHING to do with the subject :confused:

The point is that large areas of traditional farmland used to produce our food is being lost to growing new biofuels, so we will perhaps end up having either power or food, but not both..............
Still, if it ever REALLY becomes a problem, it will surely be only a temporary one as trasportation fuel WILL eventually convert to other than fossil or bio fuels as the main source of propulsion.

Electric cars, hydrogen fuel cell cars, and eventually cold fusion via my proprietary flux capacitor!

In any event, the UK is already a net importer of food and feed to the tune of over 13 Billion Pounds Sterling per annum. Importing more may be just the thing for struggling third world agri business. The main thing is that if not meddled with by Parliment, you needn't fear famine as in a free market economy someone always manages to fill a need at a price you can afford.

And, since food is and will always be a greater priority than owning your own car, I expect you'll see your Rovers and Fords and Vauxhalls and even Aston Martins become giant planters for tomatoes and potatoes before you succumb to famine.

[anthonyvop]

Nah, why worry? We shall soon get all our sustenance from pills anyway. And imagine how many pills a biofueled machine can produce. ;)

Soylent Green?

[SOD]

In any event, the UK is already a net importer of food and feed to the tune of over 13 Billion Pounds Sterling per annum. .

not for the kind of reasons that you think.

you must be off oyur rocker if you think that free market capitalism will save people from famine? but then again your location says "our nation's capital".

ah yes, the free market uber-alles guy who lives in Washington DC. :laugh: You're addicted to oil, therefore you'll buy it any price.

[Breeze]

not for the kind of reasons that you think.

you must be off oyur rocker if you think that free market capitalism will save people from famine? but then again your location says "our nation's capital".

ah yes, the free market uber-alles guy who lives in Washington DC. :laugh: You're addicted to oil, therefore you'll buy it any price.

SOD, you don't know me from SHHHIIIIAAAAAT. And since you can't seem to come up with a rational argument you resort to the logical fallacies of appeal to ridicule and personal attack.

First of all, I don't have an opnion on why the UK is a net importer, simply stating facts. Second, I am a free market advocate and have yet to see an example of a truly free market. Also haven't seen the closest thing to it, the US economy, ever lack for anything, including and especially food. Then, too, I haven't seen it all or all economies.

Lastly, I'm not personally addicted to oil and won't pay any price for it. In principal, volume buyers like the US oil companies, seek the lowest cost oil to maximize profits, so paying any price is contrary to their best interest. Haven't seen EXXON's P&L sheet either, but I expect they negotiate well enough to keep my fuel costs among the lowest in the industrialized world and still turn a profit.

So, SOD, keep your loathing to yourself, if you would be so kind. The UK is in no danger of facing famine due to farmland converting to biofuel production and I still say Farmer Gossop is full of organic fertilizer (read bovine excrement).

[SOD]

I'm still trying to find the rational arguments and logic in your post.

Don't fool youself, you will pay any price for oil. The free market solution is not ethanol, because they cant make ethanol cheaply in the USA without Washington subsidies.

[TOgoFASTER]

Needs more Jack Abranoff meets "Silent Running"

[anthonyvop]

not for the kind of reasons that you think.

you must be off oyur rocker if you think that free market capitalism will save people from famine? but then again your location says "our nation's capital".

ah yes, the free market uber-alles guy who lives in Washington DC. :laugh: You're addicted to oil, therefore you'll buy it any price.

Actually the Free Market guarantees that there will be no famine.

Ever notice that famines only occur in countries that follow socialist or socialist style systems?

Try to buy Milk in Venezuela today. A few short years ago Ven was an exporter of Milk. Chavez imposes price controls and voila.......Milk shortage.

People never learn.

[TOgoFASTER]

You might think they would but heck who am I to say.
Free market and dairy manufactures in the USA... LOL
And how about all the government hand outs they all lobby for?
Far too easy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/09/AR2006120900925.html

[SOD]

Actually the Free Market guarantees that there will be no famine.

Ever notice that famines only occur in countries that follow socialist or socialist style systems?

Try to buy Milk in Venezuela today. A few short years ago Ven was an exporter of Milk. Chavez imposes price controls and voila.......Milk shortage.

People never learn.

give us this day our daily baguette oui oui

[SOD]

who needs milk!

[Breeze]

I'm still trying to find the rational arguments and logic in your post.

Don't fool youself, you will pay any price for oil. The free market solution is not ethanol, because they cant make ethanol cheaply in the USA without Washington subsidies.

My post may not be suitable for publication in THE ECONOMIST, but then I'm not a reasearch scientist either. ;) And you're right, at this point in time ethanol is not the laissez faire solution to our energy needs, fossil fuel is. But when oil companies and consumers start 'paying anything' for oil, ethanol sans subsidies suddenly becomes a viable solution, if only a temporary, transitional one.

Our (speaking internationally) fine research scientists are currently working on (research) making technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell, battery powered et. al. viable long term solutions for a free economy (development). Scientists such as those at University College Dublin, who, I'm sure, are eminently reasonble people devoted to the application of logic in the service of their disciplines.

[leopard]

Thats what I was told by a forestry expert in the Richards Bay Area in KZN (during my final school year on a "field trip") who plants trees for a living to be sold to the mills for production of paper. Aparently, planting more trees is not a short term solution but a looooong term one. The best thing to do is stop cutting down our forests like we are doing at an alarming rate in the Amazon.

Plant that produces leafs product like tobacco, tea etc required more nitrogen to form chlorophyll, initiate new leafs and speedy leaf rejuvenation, while those produces fruits product required more phosphate to initiate more flowers and fruits. They absorb it from soil and fertilizer given to trees either trough the soil or spraying it to the leafs.

Thought your observation were made specifically for tobacco plantation who produce 555 ;)

[SOD]

My post may not be suitable for publication in THE ECONOMIST, but then I'm not a reasearch scientist either. ;) And you're right, at this point in time ethanol is not the laissez faire solution to our energy needs, fossil fuel is. But when oil companies and consumers start 'paying anything' for oil, ethanol sans subsidies suddenly becomes a viable solution, if only a temporary, transitional one.

Our (speaking internationally) fine research scientists are currently working on (research) making technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell, battery powered et. al. viable long term solutions for a free economy (development). Scientists such as those at University College Dublin, who, I'm sure, are eminently reasonble people devoted to the application of logic in the service of their disciplines.

There are people at UCD with publications in the IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.can't get better than that :)


Demand for energy is inelastic, thus rendering any free market lassiez-faire approach to energy supply/consumption useless. Oof course the energy market is not a free market. See OPEC, ENRON & california for details.

I'd like to see how the world would function if the price of oil went to $1,000/barrel overnight. Addicted to oil? I think so.

[SOD]

See what happens when food gets exported out of the country and when the peasants' own crop fails. The great Irish famine, a product of free market capitalism. The 1840s when laissez faire was rampant in political thinking.


http://www.nde.state.ne.us/ss/irish/irish_pf.html

"Between 1845 and 1850, more than a million Irish people starved to death while massive quantities of food were being exported from their country"

Free market capitalism at its finest. :rolleyes:

[anthonyvop]

See what happens when food gets exported out of the country and when the peasants' own crop fails. The great Irish famine, a product of free market capitalism. The 1840s when laissez faire was rampant in political thinking.


http://www.nde.state.ne.us/ss/irish/irish_pf.html

"Between 1845 and 1850, more than a million Irish people starved to death while massive quantities of food were being exported from their country"

Free market capitalism at its finest. :rolleyes:
Actually it was forcibly exported out of their country by the British. So that example doesn't wash.

Try again.

[anthonyvop]

There are people at UCD with publications in the IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion.can't get better than that :)


Demand for energy is inelastic, thus rendering any free market lassiez-faire approach to energy supply/consumption useless. Oof course the energy market is not a free market. See OPEC, ENRON & california for details.


Where do you get this stuff?
The US is not a member of Opec.
Enron was a failed energy company.
California is a perfect example of why the free market should be allowed to work.

[SOD]

Actually it was forcibly exported out of their country by the British. So that example doesn't wash.

Try again.

And the Irish helped along with them.

So where was the food being sent, who was paying the highest price for it! Someone was paying a higher price for the food elsewhere . Some free market eh.

[SOD]

Where do you get this stuff?
The US is not a member of Opec.
Enron was a failed energy company.
California is a perfect example of why the free market should be allowed to work.


The USA has to deal with OPEC, when OPEC cuts back on production the economy grinds to a halt.

Enron is a failed energy free market trading company. they bought and sold and gamed the system before they imploded.

yeah see Enron & california for details.

California was a great example, if you liked to pay for expensive electricity. you might like paying for expensive electricty. I like cheap electricy, you might have a problem with that.

[Alexamateo]

You might think they would but heck who am I to say.
Free market and dairy manufactures in the USA... LOL
And how about all the government hand outs they all lobby for?
Far too easy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/09/AR2006120900925.html

Togo, the situation in your example here is the exact opposite, government artificially keeps prices high in this situation, setting a minimum price. This will actually lead to an oversupply of whatever commodity.

In situations where government says suppliers are charging too much and set a maximum price, this leads to shortages. Suppliers either quit producing, because they are unable to earn a profit, or they sell illegally on the black market, where the price is what it truly is.

Like Breeze said in an earlier post, the US is not a completely free market, and this unfortunate example proves it.

[anthonyvop]

Enron is a failed energy free market trading company. they bought and sold and gamed the system before they imploded.
So?
Hasn't anybody explained capitalism to you?
That happens in a capitilistic system sometimes. It is called the price of doing business.


California was a great example, if you liked to pay for expensive electricity. you might like paying for expensive electricty. I like cheap electricy, you might have a problem with that.
Great you like cheap electricity. I like cheap electricity also.
Do you know what I like better than cheap electricity?
Electricity!
California is a perfect example of how Gov. Price controls screws up the system. The Gov. wanted cheap electricity and the people of California were left without any electricity.

Who do you think created the designed and developed the electrical power grid? Who Originally developed Oil Production? Who invented planes. trains and Automobiles? WHo developed modern Agricultural practices?

I will give you a hint.....It wasn't any Goverment!

[SOD]

Enron went bust because they were incapable of running an electrical supply operation and they were rotten to the core.


The people of california were left without electricity because the power companies were restricting supply i.e. shutting off generators, so they could charge the maximum price for the stuff.

In Ireland, we'd be still waiting for electricity if it was left to the free market.

[Hazell B]

And the Irish helped along with them.

So where was the food being sent, who was paying the highest price for it! Someone was paying a higher price for the food elsewhere . Some free market eh.

Seriously, get some facts before posting about the potato famine. You're miles away from anything that could happen today and even further from the real, historical reasons for a third of the population's death ;)

[veeten]

actually, Enron went 'belly-up' due to unscrupulous actions with the company's finances, namely the inflation of it's stock price and the issuance of false performance reports to maintain returns for their stockholders. When the cover was blown it all fell apart, with the losses being felt by the employees in jobs and retirement/pensions being wiped out.

The real situation with California's electricity supplying problem was never about price or regulation; it was about the grid itself!
This is what happens when the infrastructure is neither properly maintained or upgraded to handle present or future demands being made upon it. Neither side wanted to be responsible for the task (both in Logistics and Monetary), so the delivery system was allowed, by default, to fall into a state that led to supply problems.

Both are examples of when greed (both private and public), stupidity, and pi$$-poor management are allowed to continue.

It always strikes me as funny when 'so called' free marketeers spend untold amounts of time and ink extolling the virtues, while never acknowledging the fact that a lot of it is underwritten by federal funding and legislation, designed to keep poorly run, failing businesses alive and as a stop-gap for those that don't want to suffer the 'unintended consequences' of bad ideas.
Constant interferrence with 'economic darwinism' is the reason why true free market economies will never arise, as we still refuse to take responsibility and clean up our own messes, in business and government.

[SOD]

Seriously, get some facts before posting about the potato famine. You're miles away from anything that could happen today and even further from the real, historical reasons for a third of the population's death ;)

I'm just pointing out what happens when produce is sold to the highest bidder. Reverse auctions are only the product of radio station competitions not anything dreamt up by free-marketeers who think that someone will sell their stuff to the lowest bidder.



by anthonyvop :
"Who do you think created the designed and developed the electrical power grid? Who Originally developed Oil Production? Who invented planes. trains and Automobiles? WHo developed modern Agricultural practices?

I will give you a hint.....It wasn't any Goverment!"


I guess you need to read up about DARPA and all the other governemnt funded research programs.

[TOgoFASTER]

It always strikes me as funny when 'so called' free marketeers spend untold amounts of time and ink extolling the virtues, while never acknowledging the fact that a lot of it is underwritten by federal funding and legislation, designed to keep poorly run, failing businesses alive and as a stop-gap for those that don't want to suffer the 'unintended consequences' of bad ideas.
Constant interferrence with 'economic darwinism' is the reason why true free market economies will never arise, as we still refuse to take responsibility and clean up our own messes, in business and government.

Careful you're ruining the illusions of the well earned kick back one way and on the other hand subsides for all the good those bad businesses do for the economy and futuring retirement plans. :)
Corruption doesn't want a clean up. But will take a no bid contract.

[anthonyvop]

I guess you need to read up about DARPA and all the other governemnt funded research programs.

DARPA led studies for Government purposes.

So the Gov. spends alot of money on planes. So what? The Gov is just another client.

Aviation was created by and developed by private enterprise.

[Erki]

It was already a few months ago that I was thinking that when one person averages perhaps 2 kilograms(4 pounds?) of foodstuff per day(excluding water), my hometown's population of 100,000 eats 200 tons of food every day. Where the hell does all that food come from? Is there really 200 tons of food on the aisles of the local stores? There goes my vision of living off apple trees growing in town center. ;(

Maybe population shouldn't be so centered in dense cities, then food has more land to grow and shouldn't be transported by environment-damaging lorries and hungry people operating food industry. Less people hungry and tired bcause of their work = less food needed = more food available. :D

[Hazell B]

I'm just pointing out what happens when produce is sold to the highest bidder.

:laugh:
Almost all food is sold to the highest bidder. They don't take lambs, cattle and pigs to the thousands of markets each year to offer them to low bidders ;) Jeez, I grow shrubs and trees for farmers and they're all offered to highest bidder only!

Only certain crops are pre-sold to supermarket style operations, and prices are fixed in advance in general. Your average farmer doesn't simply grow wheat and then offer it for sale, he goes with a high bidder before the crop's in the ground (ask my small farming neighbours, they're all pretty much planned for the next two years already).

If you can find me any farmer who sells to anything but his best option for profit, I'll show you an idiot who's losing cash hand over fist ;)

[jim mcglinchey]

Explain this then. If the four big supermarket chains sell 70% of the food sold in the UK and they dictate to the farmer what they will pay him for his product, how is that selling to the highest bidder

[anthonyvop]

Explain this then. If the four big supermarket chains sell 70% of the food sold in the UK and they dictate to the farmer what they will pay him for his product, how is that selling to the highest bidder

That is easy!
The 4 biggest Chains are seperate entities.
They all compete for the best price.
Of course you need to add into the mix that nobody is stopping anyone from starting a new Supermarket Chain!

Isn't Capitalism Great?

[veeten]

or, you can go one step better and sell it yourself, and cut out the middleman altogether.

[Alexamateo]

Explain this then. If the four big supermarket chains sell 70% of the food sold in the UK and they dictate to the farmer what they will pay him for his product, how is that selling to the highest bidder

I'm not a broker of foodstuffs, but I do broker commodity goods (nursery trees and shrubs, like Hazel! :D )

It's like this, I want the highest price I can get, but my customers want the lowest price they can get. To a smaller customer without many options, I can get a higher price because I am not just supplying him with plants, I am providing sourcing and logistic functions. To a larger customer, I have to give a lower price, because he has so many more options including buying directly from the grower (therefore cutting me, the middleman out of the loop) Yes, I am the middleman! :s mokin:

I imagine food is the same way. You may have nice apples, but a good buyer will know that there's been a bumper crop this year, and offer a lower price, because if you don't take it, there's another guy around the corner, but if there's been a freeze or pests or some other problems, and they're short, he'll jump on a deal and offer a good price because he doesn't want you selling them anywhere else.


Constant interferrence with 'economic darwinism' is the reason why true free market economies will never arise, as we still refuse to take responsibility and clean up our own messes, in business and government.


It's a shame that government does interfere and not let businesses truly succeed or fail on their own accord. My dad got out of farming because he didn't like all the rigarmarole. (We were being paid not to grow crops thereby reducing supply and keeping prices artificially high, on a certain level, we were no different than welfare recipients and that's not who he wanted to be.) That's just wrong on so many levels, but because it was the system that was in place, you just gritted your teeth and went along with it.

Heck, I think this economic stimulus package is a stupid idea, but I'm still gonna cash the $1800 check when it comes my way. :D :p : :)

[Hazell B]

Explain this then. If the four big supermarket chains sell 70% of the food sold in the UK and they dictate to the farmer what they will pay him for his product, how is that selling to the highest bidder


Why are you under the assumption that supermarkets sell 70% of the UK food supply? They only sell 70% of the end product, the vast majority of which isn't fresh food direct from a farm.

A farmer grows wheat, for example, of a variety suitable for bread. It goes to a bread maker, who then has to make sure he gets the best supermarket price. The farmer sells to the breadmaker, not the supermarket. The straw from that wheat goes to another middleman, then eventually makes bedding/compost/whatever, that can again end up in a supermarket. At no point is the farmer in any way selling to a supermarket. Same for most veg crops, as the supermarkets now own the farms that grow their fresh UK produce generally. In fact, it's the same for any crop I can think of except milk.

As for meat farming, only the finishing house sells to the supermarket, and then it's mainly via a large middleman who's been at assorted farms and auctions getting his orders bought. Most animals travel through a market or two before a supermarket even knows they exist. Thirsk Market has two sales this week, for example, and the 'store' sale of over 200 cattle and perhaps 800 sheep is for fattening before slaughter, so the farmers aren't dealing with supermarkets even if that's where the animals end up. The 'dedicated slaughter' sale hosts 550 cattle and 1000 lambs, the vast majority of which will go via middlemen to end users, all to the highest bidder.
Thirsk isn't in any way a large market, it just happens to be the one who's catalogue is handiest to me at the moment (being next to me on my desk :p : ).

I don't know a single farmer who sells to a supermarket directly, though my partner used to grow 2 million lettuce each year for ASDA at a local farm until it closed down.


In short, farmers have nothing to do with supermarkets selling 70% of the food eaten in the UK.

[veeten]

there's always farmer's markets, where you the average person can choose from a variety of farm-fresh produce, without the middleman. :)

fun things to see, do and ... funnel cakes! :D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funnel_cake mmmm... :lips:

[anthonyvop]

Why are you under the assumption that supermarkets sell 70% of the UK food supply? They only sell 70% of the end product, the vast majority of which isn't fresh food direct from a farm.

A farmer grows wheat, for example, of a variety suitable for bread. It goes to a bread maker, who then has to make sure he gets the best supermarket price. The farmer sells to the breadmaker, not the supermarket. The straw from that wheat goes to another middleman, then eventually makes bedding/compost/whatever, that can again end up in a supermarket. At no point is the farmer in any way selling to a supermarket. Same for most veg crops, as the supermarkets now own the farms that grow their fresh UK produce generally. In fact, it's the same for any crop I can think of except milk.

As for meat farming, only the finishing house sells to the supermarket, and then it's mainly via a large middleman who's been at assorted farms and auctions getting his orders bought. Most animals travel through a market or two before a supermarket even knows they exist. Thirsk Market has two sales this week, for example, and the 'store' sale of over 200 cattle and perhaps 800 sheep is for fattening before slaughter, so the farmers aren't dealing with supermarkets even if that's where the animals end up. The 'dedicated slaughter' sale hosts 550 cattle and 1000 lambs, the vast majority of which will go via middlemen to end users, all to the highest bidder.
Thirsk isn't in any way a large market, it just happens to be the one who's catalogue is handiest to me at the moment (being next to me on my desk :p : ).

I don't know a single farmer who sells to a supermarket directly, though my partner used to grow 2 million lettuce each year for ASDA at a local farm until it closed down.


In short, farmers have nothing to do with supermarkets selling 70% of the food eaten in the UK.

Hazell,

You have forgotten one basic law when debating with those who hate capitalism.
They have no grasp on how business works. They just see a price and assume it is all part of some evil conspiracy.

[TOgoFASTER]

LOL



http://futures.tradingcharts.com/tafm/

[Erki]

there's always farmer's markets, where you the average person can choose from a variety of farm-fresh produce, without the middleman. :)

fun things to see, do and ... funnel cakes! :D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funnel_cake mmmm... :lips:

And you can actually see the people who grow your food. :)

[jim mcglinchey]

Why are you under the assumption that supermarkets sell 70% of the UK food supply? They only sell 70% of the end product, the vast majority of which isn't fresh food direct from a farm.

A farmer grows wheat, for example, of a variety suitable for bread. It goes to a bread maker, who then has to make sure he gets the best supermarket price. The farmer sells to the breadmaker, not the supermarket. The straw from that wheat goes to another middleman, then eventually makes bedding/compost/whatever, that can again end up in a supermarket. At no point is the farmer in any way selling to a supermarket. Same for most veg crops, as the supermarkets now own the farms that grow their fresh UK produce generally. In fact, it's the same for any crop I can think of except milk.

As for meat farming, only the finishing house sells to the supermarket, and then it's mainly via a large middleman who's been at assorted farms and auctions getting his orders bought. Most animals travel through a market or two before a supermarket even knows they exist. Thirsk Market has two sales this week, for example, and the 'store' sale of over 200 cattle and perhaps 800 sheep is for fattening before slaughter, so the farmers aren't dealing with supermarkets even if that's where the animals end up. The 'dedicated slaughter' sale hosts 550 cattle and 1000 lambs, the vast majority of which will go via middlemen to end users, all to the highest bidder.
Thirsk isn't in any way a large market, it just happens to be the one who's catalogue is handiest to me at the moment (being next to me on my desk :p : ).

I don't know a single farmer who sells to a supermarket directly, though my partner used to grow 2 million lettuce each year for ASDA at a local farm until it closed down.


In short, farmers have nothing to do with supermarkets selling 70% of the food eaten in the UK.


Am I missing something here? It doesnt matter how mant steps there are in the processing and distribution, the cartel at the end of the chain have the clout to set prices that will knock on back through the chain. Why else would farmers have been yapping for the past 5 years or so about the bad deal theyre getting, and why have they started so many farmers markets to sell directly to the public at more profitable prices than theyre getting from the big four.

[TOgoFASTER]

Been buying fresh from the local markets for years now. Lucky I live in an area that produces so much good food stuffs.
Stuff the middlemen when you can.
Win, Win

[anthonyvop]

Am I missing something here? It doesnt matter how mant steps there are in the processing and distribution, the cartel at the end of the chain have the clout to set prices that will knock on back through the chain.
Why is it a Cartel? Do you have proof that they are acting in colusion?


Why else would farmers have been yapping for the past 5 years or so about the bad deal theyre getting,
Because they are farmers/businessmen. That is what they do.


and why have they started so many farmers markets to sell directly to the public at more profitable prices than theyre getting from the big four.
Have they? Then from where are the supermarkets getting their products?

[jim mcglinchey]

I know, Antony, I didnt want to believe it either because Tescos have been very good to us with their club card loyalty points, I mean I havent had to put my hand in my pocket for the wifes birthday dinner outing since 2003, but if you Google big four supermarket cartel, check out the dirt that comes up.