Let's talk Ferrari's 2026 season chances

[Nitrodaze]

The 2025 season has been a catalogue of embarrassing races for Ferrari. The most iconic team in F1 became a laughing stock as one race after the other showcased what a terrible car the SF25 was. Much to disbelief, Ferrari finished a season without winning a single race.

With the rule change in 2026, the SF25 seem destined for the skip, or some very obscure corner of Ferrari car warehouse. And the drivers would not miss it. Seeing how awful the SF25 was, one wonders how good the SF26 is likely to be.

A few pointers suggest that they are likely to get the SF26 wrong as well.

Firstly, they have lost two key engine engineers to Audi. The engine in the SF25 was notably weaker than the Mercedes and Honda engines powering the cars ahead this season.

Secondly, they do not seem to be engaging with the driver on the design of the new car. Without valuable driver inputs, chances are they would present the drivers with a car that would replicate this season.

Thirdly, I think they would have to start afresh on all fronts, as not much from the SF25 would be carried forward into the new car. You cannot build a great car from a bad one.

Fourthly, the team needs a complete reshuffle. This would imply that many people in the team would be adjusting to new positions, or newcomers would be learning how to fit into the team. This would mean Ferrari would not be at the same level of efficiency as its competition in 2026. To be fair, they were not at the same level of efficiency as the competition in 2025, hence same difference, l guess.

I hope they surprise me in 2026. Unfortunately, they seemed very lost this season, and that is not a good sign entering a new regulation era.

What do you think? Is Ferrari done as a sharp-end team? Or can they bounce back in 2026?

[RangeRover1123]

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[Nitrodaze]

The noises out of Fiorano are sounding promising. They may come out with a good car l hope. But we have heard this before haven't we?

[Nitrodaze]

I think Ferrari is the dark horse of 2026.

[Nitrodaze]

https://e0.365dm.com/26/01/2048x1152/skysports-ferrari-sf-26-2026-car_7143456.jpg?20260123115109

https://e0.365dm.com/26/01/2048x1152/skysports-ferrari-sf-26-launch_7143357.jpg?20260123103439

https://e0.365dm.com/26/01/2048x1152/skysports-ferrari-sf-26-launch_7143359.jpg?20260123103522

https://e0.365dm.com/26/01/2048x1152/skysports-ferrari-sf26-launch_7143355.jpg?20260123103402

Courtesy SkySport F1

[Nitrodaze]

After seeing the SF26 for the first time, l am pleased to see the impressive state of readiness that Ferrari as shown. It is a great-looking car. A throwback to the shade of red of the Schumacher era. They have gone for reliability and predictability in the conservative approach of the design. A return to the pushrod suspension of the more successful 2024 car and a wide sloping sidepod.

This car exudes a bold reset as it compels us to draw a line at the end of the 2025 season and step forward into a new era of highly technical hybrid evolution of the regulations. An era that urshers in active wing alteration with moving vanes for dynamic profiling of car aerodynamics to track characteristics. There is more to come in this area and it is a future prospect that is quite exciting to anticipate.

Ferrari inspires confidence in the team as it takes a bold steps in reshaping its operational resourses with the hope of achieving a better operational efficiency in 2026. Ferrari is now looking like a team ready to fight for wins and the championship. The proof is in the tasting, as the adage goes. We have to see what this SF26 looks like in testing and how well the restructured team conduct the first three races of the season to gauge Ferrari's chances to mount a proper challenge for the 2026 titles. I say goodluck to Scuderia Ferrari.

[Matthew]

Ferrari should be quite happy with their result in the first race. It was a solid start to the season, even though it could have been a bit better. Overall the signs look promising and if they keep this level of performance they should be right in the fight for the constructors' championship, though the drivers' championship may be a tougher challenge.

[Nitrodaze]

Ferrari should be quite happy with their result in the first race. It was a solid start to the season, even though it could have been a bit better. Overall, the signs look promising and if they keep this level of performance, they should be right in the fight for the constructors' championship, though the drivers' championship may be a tougher challenge.

I agree. I suspect Mercedes is still hiding outright performance. Ferrari's chances of winning the constructors depends on how well Antonelli performs. I mean, how often he crashes, as he would not always be able to recover to the front, passing the Ferraris.

Hence, l think the Ferrari is good enough to punish Mercedes on their off days. And to occasionally split the Mercedes with one or both cars. Of course, it depends on what upgrades Ferrari brings to the car, and how effective they are at gaining more performance than Mercedes can bring to their car.

Also, we do not know what the tyre wear profile is of the Mercedes engine at higher speeds. Or battery drain or charging characteristics are at those higher engine power outputs.

It would all be clear after the next three races how much closer Ferrari actually is to Mercedes.

[Steve Boyd]

Just for fun, what Ferrari need is a statement from the FIA like this:


On grounds of safety, to reduce the risk of start collisions, grid positions will no longer be deremined by the time of a full flying lap of the circuit. Each car will make a standing start from the front row of the grid between P1 & P2 (to avoid "rubbering in" any grid positions) after a single lap at formation lap pace. The qualifying positions will be based on the time taken to cover the first sector. Each car will have three runs, the best time to count.

Give Ferrari that & they'll let Mercedes have their trick compression ratio! :)

[Nitrodaze]

Just for fun, what Ferrari need is a statement from the FIA like this:



Give Ferrari that & they'll let Mercedes have their trick compression ratio! :)

Haha, that will be something if they can persuade the other 8 teams to accept that

[Nitrodaze]

Japan was a quick detour back to their old ways for Ferrari. Suzuka is a track where the worst characteristics of a car are exposed. And it showed the Ferrari package is in a worse place than we were led to believe. And it was not simply about the power unit; it was chassis balance. Surprisingly, the boggy of their 2025 car is showing up in the 2026 car.

McLaren recovered half a second gap to Ferrari in Suzuka. That says something. Ferrari is drifting backwards. Is that a surprise? Not really