Horner sacked by RedBull

[Nitrodaze]

https://images.ps-aws.com/c?url=https%3A%2F%2Fd3cm515ijfiu6w.cloudfront.net% 2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2025%2F07%2F09102038%2Fchristi an-horner-broken-red-bull-logo-2025-planetf1-1320x742.jpg

The power struggle at Redbull has come to an end as Redbull sacks its most successful team principal, Christian Horner. Eight Driver's Titles and six Constructors' titles were not enough to mend the rift between Horner and his aggressors with Redbull. Merkie of Racing Bull takes over with immediate effect.

But what does this mean for Redbull losing the last of its founding management? Can Redbull survive another seismic change like this without some side effects?

Horner, as a free agent, puts a lot of pressure on a number of team principals. Especially if they are currently contending with performance setbacks or lacking the confidence of their boards of executives.

I am sure Chevrolet would be immediately on the phone to Horner to take over their project. They would not find a better man for the job. Unfortunately, this increases pressure on Vasseur's position at Ferrari. I am sure Audi and Aston Martin would also be wanting to engage his services.

Redbull may be done with Horner, but l doubt F1 is done with Horner. The question is where does he want to go?

Can Horner build another SuperTeam at Chevrolet? I am sure in 2021, Hamilton wished he had Horn er in his corner and not the soft Woolf fighting his claim to the title. Hence, a Horner move to Ferrari would be welcomed by Hamilton, l am sure. LeClerc would have the challenge of building a new relationship. To be fair, so would be Hamilton as they have been on opposite sides most of their careers.

[F1nKS]

Good take.

Do you think Max is more likely or less likely to stay at RBR?

[Nitrodaze]

Good take.

Do you think Max is more likely or less likely to stay at RBR?

I think he would stay until the end of 2026 to see how competitive the Ford engine is. Beyond that, it is anyone's guess. One thing is certain: Max wants to be in the fastest car on the grid. That may be a Mercedes or an Aston.Martin. Hence, it is not guaranteed that Max would make Redbull his team and stay until he finishes his F1 career. A slow Redbull is no good to Verstappen.

But, l suspect Max may also be condemned to staying at Redbull, because l don't think Mercedes and Aston Martin would like Jos Verstappen messing with their operations. The influence wielded by Jos at Redbull would be very unattractive to Mercedes, which strives to offer parity equipment to both of their drivers. Hence, while Woolf wants Max Verstappen, l am sure he would not want the baggage of Jos Verstappen.

The dynamics of the Verstappens versus the Strolls operating together at Aston Martin does not seem like a partnership that would be void of problems either. Max Verstappen would easily smother Lance Stroll, and a battle for car development to move towards Verstappen would recreate the Redbull problems and set the Strolls against the Verstappens.

Due to the accompanying problems that come with Verstappen, he may not be seen as a serious option after the Horner situation has been taken into consideration. Hence, there might not be many teams on the grid that Verstappen can go to. He may have to end his career at Redbull. His shenanigans would most unlikely be entertained in any of the top teams in F1 except at Redbull.

Thus, l can see Max Verstappen in Mercedes or Aston Martin in 2027, if he drops his father from the equation. Otherwise, probably not.

Hamilton had to do the same a few years ago, and it worked out very well for him in the end. Max would need to find the courage to follow Hamilton's examples, if he wants a successfull career beyond Redbull.

[Nitrodaze]

Why did Horner lose his grip on the reins of the Redbull team?

I think this was a mistake that goes as far back as when Ricciardo and Verstappen crashed at Baku. That period provided hints that there was a shift of focus going on in Redbull as Ricciardo lost the Monaco GP due to his reduced status. It became very clear to us fans that there was a very deep change of dynamics as the endeavour of the team moved from Ricciardo, who had successfully dispatched their four-time driver world champion Vettel a season before, to Verstappen, the rising star that seemed the real deal to Horner.

This was the moment that Horner made an unanticipated error. He pandered to the will of Jos and slowly empowered the Verstappens at the expense of Ricciardo. And unwittingly created a series of cars that only Verstappen can drive successfully. A row call of talent after talent have tried to perform well in the second Redbull seat and failed woefully. And not because they were bad drivers, but because they were driving a car of which they were an afterthought. They were destined not to do well in that seat next to Verstappen.

And l seriously think that in an evenly designed car, Verstappen would not be more performant than his teammates as it seems in the Redbull after Ricciardo departed Redbull. A clue for this point of view can be found in the Verstappen-Sainz Toro Rosso days where both were evenly matched, and Ricciardo's early partnership with Verstappen where he diominated the youngster, and in Perez's early Redbull days before the car drastically moved away from him, where he beat Verstappen fair and square to win a couple of races.

Hence, I think Horner's problems started when he started to take steps to correct the heavy bias towards Verstappen after seeing Lawson crushed before he got started, and the replacement Tsunoda also struggled to make it into Q3 or finish in the top ten. This attempt to bring parity to the car development may have introduced a loss of performance and some instability to the car. Unfortunately, Horner may have started this shift way too late. He had created a monstrous situation by empowering the Verstappens. And he has paid dearly as that situation has now come round to bite him in the arse.

Horner was not sacked due to performance-related concerns or due to the power struggle from his scandal of 2024. Both of these were used as tools to oust him for attempting to shift the balance of car development from Verstappen into an equal machinery for both drivers. The horrible showing of Redbull in the constructor's championship was the very clear motivation for Horner to go down this route. The one-car setup of Redbull only favoured Verstappen but not the team if he was not winning. And he wanted to change that to a situation where both cars were bringing in points. Much like McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari are doing.

[F1nKS]

I think he would stay until the end of 2026 to see how competitive the Ford engine is. Beyond that, it is anyone's guess. One thing is certain: Max wants to be in the fastest car on the grid. That may be a Mercedes or an Aston.Martin. Hence, it is not guaranteed that Max would make Redbull his team and stay until he finishes his F1 career. A slow Redbull is no good to Verstappen.

That's what I am thinking. Right now, with the new rules coming, there is a lot of risk in jumping until you see who nails the powerplants and the 2026 rules. It also seems that he is loyal to Marko, and since Marko was successful in getting rid of Horner, he would feel obligated to at least stay for the 2026 season. Now, if Marko announces he is going to retire at the end of 2025, I might change my thoughts.

Why would Max jump? Marko is out and/or sees the writing on the wall, realizing Red Bull will have to undergo a rebuilding process and won't be competitive for several years, but it's worth the risk to take the chance on another team that "probably" will be competitive.

I have seen it in other sports - when a hall-of-fame head coach (that kind of like what the team principal is), they think anybody can easily replace him. But they find out that he was a "catalyst for a culture of winning," which is very rare to find. You add all the other people who have left RB (like Newey, Wheatley, Courtney) - RB no longer has the leadership of the world champion team. We are seeing that in all areas of RB this year. They seem to be slipping in all areas.

There are a lot of media people trying to make a story of Max and Mercedes. It seems to me that maybe Toto is just trying to play some mind games with RB. Mercedes, IMO, has a pretty good group of drivers. And there is no Jos baggage. It wouldn't surprise me that we will hear Mercedes signing their drivers for 2026. Something I will be looking for here is whether they will be long-term contracts or short-term contracts. If you want to keep the door open for Max, then I would assume only short-term contracts would be offered to 1 or both drivers.

[Nitrodaze]

That's what I am thinking. Right now, with the new rules coming, there is a lot of risk in jumping until you see who nails the powerplants and the 2026 rules. It also seems that he is loyal to Marko, and since Marko was successful in getting rid of Horner, he would feel obligated to at least stay for the 2026 season. Now, if Marko announces he is going to retire at the end of 2025, I might change my thoughts.

Why would Max jump? Marko is out and/or sees the writing on the wall, realizing Red Bull will have to undergo a rebuilding process and won't be competitive for several years, but it's worth the risk to take the chance on another team that "probably" will be competitive.

I have seen it in other sports - when a hall-of-fame head coach (that kind of like what the team principal is), they think anybody can easily replace him. But they find out that he was a "catalyst for a culture of winning," which is very rare to find. You add all the other people who have left RB (like Newey, Wheatley, Courtney) - RB no longer has the leadership of the world champion team. We are seeing that in all areas of RB this year. They seem to be slipping in all areas.

There are a lot of media people trying to make a story of Max and Mercedes. It seems to me that maybe Toto is just trying to play some mind games with RB. Mercedes, IMO, has a pretty good group of drivers. And there is no Jos baggage. It wouldn't surprise me that we will hear Mercedes signing their drivers for 2026. Something I will be looking for here is whether they will be long-term contracts or short-term contracts. If you want to keep the door open for Max, then I would assume only short-term contracts would be offered to 1 or both drivers.

You capture the scenario very well, I have to say. The thing with Red Bull right now is that they have lost all of the key personnel that were the basic ingredient of their winning formula. That clique of people produced 8 driver titles and 6 constructors titles. Much like it happened to Mercedes starting in 2021, who are still trying to recover. Similarly, Red Bull seems likely to head into the doldrums for a few seasons as they try to recapture their winning magic. Merkie is going to need a season or two to gain the trust and confidence of the people at the factory. Which would impact performance over that period. Also, whether Max stays or leaves, also depends on whether Merkie can gain Verstappen's confidence that he can deliver.
After all, Merkie is stepping into very large shoes, which many doubt he can fill on his own. Running the team, rebuilding team structure and filling gaps in talent in the engineering side and managing the engine project is not going to be a walk in the park, is it?