To What Team is Jr. going?

[Mark in Oshawa]

I would like to do a poll on this but I cant do an official one it seems so I will put it out the options out like a poll you can state briefly (or not so briefly)on where he lands. This is the biggest free agent ever in NASCAR history. Most top drivers just switch, or say at the end of the year they are free, but none have been of Jr's caliber or bringing the attention and money he is bringing right now.

OK, here are your choices:

RCR

Joe Gibbs

Hendrick Motorsports

Bobby Ginn

Roush Fenway

Robert Yates

Wood Brothers

Ganassi

Penske

Evernham

Waltrip/Toyota

Red Bull

Bill Davis Racing

Back to DEI

His own new team


Ok, first off, he isn't going to some no hope team, and I doubt highly he will go to Dodge or Ford or Toyota but I put the options there anyhow.

I personally think there are some interesting scenarios 1)RCR : I know that Childress would take him, but I think Dale doesn't want the pressure of being his dad. The pressure would be huge for him to drive the "3" but RCR is good, but not great right now. A few years back, they were not even good. Would Jr. be better off here rather than DEI? Yes....but will RCR stay on top? I hope so, because I like the guys there and Richard Childress is a class act, but his fortunes have been up and down a lot the last few years. 2) Gibbs: this is very possible but the Budweiser sponsorship would be an issue, since Gibbs is a Christian/Baptist and wont have a full beer sponsorship. This has been hinted at more than once in a few articles that I have read. That said, he, Stewart and Hamelin are buddies.... 3)Hendrick: it is the top team in Cup right now, and if I am Casey Mears, I am looking for the buyout because he will be the odd man out in a hurry. That said, not sure if Rick will do it or not. Rick Hendrick is the one team owner who may not want Jr. because his influence may upset a few egos and agenda's at the most successful operation in Cup right now 4) Ginn Racing. Last year, they really wouldn't be an option, but Ginn is spending the money, and judging on Mark Martin's success and Marlin and Nemechek's runs, they are up and coming. Add Budweiser's large sponsorship and this team might vault over a few and be a great team. They have the most to gain.

AS for the rest, well, they are not Chevy's and Jr. is a Chevy guy, so I suspect he goes to one of these 4. They all have pro's and con's......

Roush has the money, but I don't know if Jr. is the kind of driver he likes. That said, Jr. has a true buddy with Kenseth, so there is an in. Yates isn't good enough, nor are any of the Dodges except maybe Penske. That said, Jr. isn't Roger's kind of driver....

The only non-Chevy team's that will be serious are Roush because he has the dough and Kenseth, and Evernham because the potential is there and Ray will not stop until he wins. That said, I don't think it can happen.

Toyota may have the dough, but Jr. is 33 and wont wait around for a good car....

No, I think he goes to Gibbs in the end....not sure how it happens, but it will. Hendricks SHOULD dump Mears NOW and get Jr. over there, even if he has to buy out DEI.....but I dont' think he will. RCR is where Jr. would likely go if there was no money involved, but the pressure to be his dad would tear him up, and Richard and Dale know this.....


I think if Teresa caves between now and May 31st, and lets Jr have run of the place, that will be the ideal option for Dale on a personal level. He has stated he has no interest in running his own cup team unless it was DEI. That said, he would dearly love to bring home a championship for DEI and it just isn't happening under the current management structure. I think if enough people tell Teresa she is out of her mind, she may find a way to save face.....and with the way people are talking all over the South ( and North ) I think she will be getting a lot of unsolicited advice on how she screwed up....


I say even odds he ends up not leaving, but if he goes, Joe Gibbs gets him...and Jr wins a championship in the next 3 years...

[Alexamateo]

Good post Mark :) :up:

[Mark in Oshawa]

You have no opinion tho Alex? I could be out to lunch ya know. God knows a few people on here have accused me of it from time to time, and occasionally, they get it right.

Personally, I would love it if he went to Evernham and they won. It would be out left field, would break the Chevy thing that is happening right now and it would drive his dad's old fans NUTS!!! ( Some of them need to be driven nuts, as seen as how they treated wonderboy lately )

[dwboogityfan]

I think Jr will end up driving for Bobby Ginn. Ginn Motorsports is the fastest improving team in Nextel Cup and I'm sure he will be in either the #14 if Sterling Marlin retires or the #13 next season.
I think a team of Mark Martin, Jr and Marlin would be very strong in 2008 with Regan Smith or Joe Nemechek staying in a 4th car.

[Alexamateo]

You have no opinion tho Alex? I could be out to lunch ya know. God knows a few people on here have accused me of it from time to time, and occasionally, they get it right.

Personally, I would love it if he went to Evernham and they won. It would be out left field, would break the Chevy thing that is happening right now and it would drive his dad's old fans NUTS!!! ( Some of them need to be driven nuts, as seen as how they treated wonderboy lately )

Well I think you summed up things nicely. Everham would be interesting though, especially if he puts his divorce/love triangle/Erin Crocker thing behind him and got serious about it again, it could be like Gordon/Everham days. I think Junior is just a tic away from winning a lot. He's been leading races and running up front and then having bad luck at the end (sort of the anti-Jimmie Johnson) It sort of dates back to when he was leading the points and leading the race at Atlanta and Edwards wrecked him. He's just been a little snakebit about winning since then. I thought they have turned it around since the middle of last year, but something's always coming up.

Overall, he needs to go to a non-family team. Theresa probably still thinks of him as that cut-up little kid that they had to send to military boarding school to straighten him out.

[Jonesi]

CHEVY - ~75%
RCR - The emotional favorite. Been talking about needing to add a full time 4th team for a couple of years. I think it would be a mistake with the incressed fan & media attention it would bring, even if it wasn't in the 3 or black car. DE Jr doesn't do well with that kind of stress.

Joe Gibbs - Has friends on team. Owner doesn't like alcohol sponsors, but allows Bud pole sticker on cars, so drivers can run Bud Shootout. Might Gibbs be all right with Jr keeping personal Bud spokesman deal and name only on driving suit, and get partial or better sponsorship from Budweiser for their non-alcoholic beer or soft drinks. (I think they own one of the soft drink/water lines.)

Hendrick Motorsports - Would make them a complete powerhouse for at least another decade. They would have 3 of the 4 biggest names in the series and +70% of the merchandise $ales.

Bobby Ginn - Best-of-the-rest Chevy teams, improved this year with "over-the-hill" talent. Seems willing to spend what is needed to make it a top operation.

Back to DEI - I'm not entirely sure the press conference wasn't a calculated ploy to get Teresa to lower her price tag on 51% of DEI.

His own new team - Doubt it.

NON-CHEVY - ~25%
Penske - How much would it be worth for MILLER and Dodge to snag Jr away from Budweiser and Chevy? I'm serious. It just might be worth an extra +$10-20 mil a year extra for the coup, and could Dale say no the that much money? Also PM isn't writing the big check to Michael Schumacher at Ferrari any more. Would they be able to run an unbranded red & white car (but everyone knows what they are advertising) in Cup?

Roush Fenway - Probably the best non Chevy operations. Has one team too many now, but it may be easier to add a 6th team now and sell off a pair of them in two years (particularly to a couple of veteran drivers who want to own their own team.)

Robert Yates - Struggling now just as bad if not worse than DEI.

Ganassi - Probably too cheap. Has Coors conflict. Does Coors have the resources to go after Dale like Miller might?

Evernham - See Yates, (but might Jr bring funding that Ray would make good use of?)

Any Toyota team - Probably about 3-5 years too late for him to be willing to go some where that needs 3-5 years to be a championship operation.

[Mark in Oshawa]

Jonesi, summed up nicely. The delicious thought about all of this is logic says likely RCR, Gibbs or Hendricks, but how much would the earth move if he went to Penske or Roush???

[e2mtt]

One idea I had, when it first leaked out that he was leaving DEI and possibly running his own team, was that he would run it with full Gibbs support. It would give him great equipment, good front office support as he got the show on the road, and do an end run around Gibb's dislike of alcohol sponsorship.

As far as what I think is most likely for now, RCR, but not running the #3. he may work out a way to keep the 8, or run #30 or a whole new number.

[djarumdudley]

i can't imagine him going to a non-Chevy(though Penske would be an interesting place for him to wind up) team so RCR is the obvious choice as they've got the room to expand and no restriction like Gibbs.

but i'm thinking he's going wind up at Ginn. Bobby Ginn certainly seems willing to throw the money around. another key factor in where he goes is a teams top 35 status. couldn't really imagine Earnhardt wanting to go into a situation where he might not qualify(certainly Nascar feels the same way). the only teams with room for expansion(a non-exempt start-up) are RCR, Gibbs, and Ginn.

i can't see either RCR or Gibbs(unless they dump Yeley, a buddy of Stewart) shuffling their team to favor Earnhardt. Ginn can easily start another team and shift the roster accordingly. those cars have all proven fast enough(save for Nemechek's Bristol hiccup) this year to make races. Marlin would be the obvious choice to move as he's wrapping up his career. can't see Nemechek agreeing to move to a start-up for a second season.
the 01 could also easily be in play as it currently a split ride, yet still in the top 35. Regan Smith is still developing while Mark Martin has a history of being a team player. this duo could easily slide into a new team.

if Earnhardt can see the prospect of this team(with it's Hendrick connection) and the money is right, it seems very logical to me. at this point Ginn is nearly on par with DEI. Ginn's teams are 6th(01), 25th(14), 27th(13,despite missing a race) in owner's points vs DEI 13th(8), 18(1), 38th(15, 3 races missed). last year the Ginn cars were very much also rans, but if Bobby Ginn commits to spend like he has, this team could easily leap frog into the upper echelon and win the Earnhardt Jr sweepstakes.

[Cindy_AL]

Those are some interesting scenarios.

Im still leaning towards RCR. I dont think it will be in the 3 car though. I believe the only thing that kept Jr at DEI for this long was his loyalty to his father. I cant imagine that there is anything Teresa could do that would make him stay. I think he already has a great relationship with Childress and Richard understands where Jr is coming from. I believe, in Jr's mind, going to RCR would be what his Dad would want if he wasnt going to stay at DEI. He has a strong sense of loyalty to his Dad and I believe that will play a big part in his decision.
On the other hand, I would love to see him go to Hendricks. I have seen Jr talking to Jeffypoo ALOT when they are at Dega. I think they are pretty good friends. I dont see a clash of personalities if he went to HMS. He now has a girlfriend and may finally be settling down. He has his heart set on a championship and I believe Hendrick is the one who can give it to him.

Next would be Gibbs. Its obvious that Jr is friends with Denny & Tony. With Bud sponsorship being the only obstacle, seems like an easy fix could be found with that issue. There's probably a better chance of Jr going to Gibbs than to HMS.

[Lee Roy]

I hope that Hendrick sends Casey Mears down the road and puts Junior in the #25. If not, then maybe into Ginn's operation. The money that Bud would bring would help Ginn to turn that operation into a first class ride.

[Mark in Oshawa]

LeeRoy, I think Ginn may use this as a chance to push his team over the top of others to the big time. This guy doesn't think small, and Mark Martin was on some show being intereviewed on Speed and he said Ginn is very impressive and not afraid to spend money. Ginn is a risk taker, and he may make Jr. an offer too good to turn down. That said, I would like to see Jr. just go some place where he can win. Hendrick would be the best place to go for equipment and organization, but his best buddy on the circuit is Tony Stewart from what I have read, so Gibbs should have a shot, and of course, he likes his dad's legacy..... man the guy probably doesn't know what offer to take. I suspect when he is free to negotiate legally ( he is still under exclusive rights to Teresa till the 31st) his sister will lock him in a closet away from people while she conducts business. Unlike Jr., his sister wont be swayed by emotion and she will be a little tougher to deal with. Jr. will have a say in the end, but he knows his sister will be the hard@ss to make sure he gets what he needs. It should be VERY interesting....

[Erki]

But what about
Front Row Motorsports?
Haas?
Furniture Row Racing?
Some other little part timer?
I'm being silly here of course.

This made me chuckle:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sports/racing/jrcolor.gif

[Sparky1329]

There's only one reason why I don't think JR should go to RCR. He'd once again be racing in the shadow of his father. I think it would be good for him to work for someone who obviously has his best interests at heart, and RC does I think, but I hate seeing the kid constantly being compared to his dad.

[tstran17_88]

RCR...I got a funny feeling the deal may already be done. One of the guys on the LTN hour, based out of wonderful Waukesha, WI mentioned in March, that by the end of May, Joonyer will be announcing he is leaving DEI to go to RCR to drive the #3, and that the deal is already signed. So far, he’s got the DEI part right, albeit Joonyer said he won't be driving the #3.

[e2mtt]

One thing that is pretty cool... it seems like Jr. is really well liked all around in NASCAR. I honestly don't think he would have a problem with team chemisty anywere he went.

[Sparky1329]

One thing that is pretty cool... it seems like Jr. is really well liked all around in NASCAR. I honestly don't think he would have a problem with team chemisty anywere he went.


I don't think he would either.

[muggle not]

HMS

[pentti]

Bobby Ginn is the best option. If he goes to any top teams were is enormous risk not beeing able to beat his team mates. In DEI he was not really challenged. Ginn uses Hendrick engines. Martin nearly won Daytona 500 and was leading championship before his holiday. Martin seems to happier there than ever with Rousch so the chemistry is there. No brainer.

[tstran17_88]

HMSWho are they going to FIRE though? Mears is the easy choice...but I doubt that will happen.

[beachbum]

RCR - Probably not. After Juniors announcement, RCR announced the joint engine program with DEI and they were extending their contract with Burton. Interesting timing, perhaps to send a message to Junior?

Hendrick Motorsports - Maybe, but who would they dump as they already have 4 teams? Only Mears or Busch would be vulnerable.

Gibbs - The Budweiser sponsorship is likely a show stopper by their own admission. The Gibbs stick to their guns on that one, almost as much as the Pettys

Forget any non-Chevy teams - for now at least.

That leaves a Hendrick satellite team like Ginn who can still expand. Ginn also is willing to throw the money around, and he wants to be seen as a winner. The only downside is that the money may not be as free flowing and long lasting as it appears. Ginn is spending a lot, but some of the property development projects fueling this growth are suspect.

Where Junior ends up will be the theme of much speculation, and the result may be a surprise. The decision most likely will be made by Kelly, not Dale, so who knows. But he may find the grass isn't any greener than where he is now. He is undoubtedly the #1 driver for DEI. Anywhere else (other than maybe Ginn), he won't be #1.

Overall, I think the hardball negotiation by Kelly backfired. Junior may never get a better situation than he has now, and he won't likely get a shot at team ownership other than JR Motorsports. Actually, his own team may indeed end up as the best choice if he is allied with Hendrick, not DEI. He could have the best of everything and still control his destiny.

[tstran17_88]

Overall, I think the hardball negotiation by Kelly backfired. Junior may never get a better situation than he has now, and he won't likely get a shot at team ownership other than JR Motorsports. Actually, his own team may indeed end up as the best choice if he is allied with Hendrick, not DEI. He could have the best of everything and still control his destiny.If it wasn't for Kelley...Joonyer wouldn't even own his own name right now.

[harvick#1]

HMS

ain't happening

Hendrick has said no

http://www.thatsracin.com/247/story/4371.html

[Hoss Ghoul]

RCR - Probably not. After Juniors announcement, RCR announced the joint engine program with DEI and they were extending their contract with Burton. Interesting timing, perhaps to send a message to Junior?

Hendrick Motorsports - Maybe, but who would they dump as they already have 4 teams? Only Mears or Busch would be vulnerable.

Gibbs - The Budweiser sponsorship is likely a show stopper by their own admission. The Gibbs stick to their guns on that one, almost as much as the Pettys

Forget any non-Chevy teams - for now at least.

That leaves a Hendrick satellite team like Ginn who can still expand. Ginn also is willing to throw the money around, and he wants to be seen as a winner. The only downside is that the money may not be as free flowing and long lasting as it appears. Ginn is spending a lot, but some of the property development projects fueling this growth are suspect.

Where Junior ends up will be the theme of much speculation, and the result may be a surprise. The decision most likely will be made by Kelly, not Dale, so who knows. But he may find the grass isn't any greener than where he is now. He is undoubtedly the #1 driver for DEI. Anywhere else (other than maybe Ginn), he won't be #1.

Overall, I think the hardball negotiation by Kelly backfired. Junior may never get a better situation than he has now, and he won't likely get a shot at team ownership other than JR Motorsports. Actually, his own team may indeed end up as the best choice if he is allied with Hendrick, not DEI. He could have the best of everything and still control his destiny.

You bring up some interesting points, however, I think you are reading way too much into RCR's recent moves. Strengthening the team through an engine alliance with DEI and signing a veteran like Burton points to stability and long term plans/goals, hardly a bad message to send.

I'm curious as to your inneundo regarding Ginn's money, haven't read anything, could you explain/expand?

Also, I strongly disagree with your assertion that Jr. is in the best spot he can be as the #1 at DEI. What has that netted him of late? 1 win? They are a team on the decline, or at the very least a significant lull in performance, being the top dog there isn't that great.

Secondly, no one else in the series has Jr's star power and his abiltiy is at least on par with the other top drivers he'd potentially be teamed with, so while he may not be a clear #1 if paired with Gordon & Johnson, Stewart, or Harvick, he'd hardly be looknig for table scraps. Any team that signs him is making a serious investment and commitment, they won't leave him or his team wanting... And, this isn't formula racing, #1 distinctions within teams in NASCAR is minimal, the sponsorships, money, and racing emphasis this.

[beachbum]

I'm curious as to your inneundo regarding Ginn's money, haven't read anything, could you explain/expand?
The Ginn company is an interesting situation. His father created a small but solid development company that he took over in 1998. By 2000, they had only 31 million is sales. Not small, but not huge by resort standards. By 2005, they claim to have expanded to $2.5 billion in sales - a huge increase. (sales figures from their web site) They have done this by buying up essentially worthless land (a number are old superfund sites) and then creating large development and marketing plans for the properties. Note the word plans and marketing. To quote from their web site "our company is driven by sales and marketing". This emphasis has generated huge amounts of cash.

The problem is how this cash is generated and spent. Much of the cash is being plowed back into marketing using such expensive high profile tactics as golf tournaments, sponsoring athletes, and Ginn Racing. But the buyers of the properties expect to see some actual construction for their money, and with the exception of a couple older properties, not much is actually happening. In fact, a number of the sites are getting serious opposition from local residents and state and local authorities. Some of the projects may never actually be built, at least not as proposed.

Not only are there issues with opposition to the plans, much of the land needs a large influx of cash to built the infrastructure and clear up legacy environmental issues. For the most part, that isn't happening.

So the question becomes, how long can this "ride" continue? At some point, all that cash may have to be used for its intended purpose - building promised resorts. That might leave the marketing side (or even the whole company) in trouble. There are many people who question the business model and wonder if it is sustainable. Right now, it looks great. But there are many who think it is a high stakes poker game to expect that income will keep rising fast enough to keep paying for the marketing and actually build what they have sold. If the properties collapse, this whole shell game could come crashing down.

[Cindy_AL]

Secondly, no one else in the series has Jr's star power and his abiltiy is at least on par with the other top drivers he'd potentially be teamed with, so while he may not be a clear #1 if paired with Gordon & Johnson, Stewart, or Harvick, he'd hardly be looknig for table scraps. Any team that signs him is making a serious investment and commitment, they won't leave him or his team wanting... And, this isn't formula racing, #1 distinctions within teams in NASCAR is minimal, the sponsorships, money, and racing emphasis this.


Exactly! In the top teams, how can you really say who is the #1 driver? Isnt Jeff perceived as the #1 driver for HMS? So why has he had lackluster seasons the past few yrs and Johnson was the more dominate car at Hendricks? I think the newer Cup drivers in each stable (of the larger teams) are normally an up & coming driver with less experience and it is expected that they will have an adjustment period to gain confidence and knowledge of the sport at Cup level. I dont think they are given less of a car or a less powerful engine. Its what that particular team makes of it. I believe it all boils down to experience. Not just of the driver but of the Crew Chief, the pit crew, everyone involved with the car.
Now, that being said, Jr is no new kid in town. There's no doubt in my mind that Eury Jr will go with him. I also believe that Jr will get almost anything he asks for from his future owner. If he is truly happy with his pit crew, his spotter or anyone else working with him at DEI. If he feels like it will make him a more successful driver, I think they will be invited to go with him.

Though I am not a big Jr fan, there's no doubt in my mind that he knows how to win. He is motivated & determined to win a Cup championship and I think its coming.
Jr will bring one of the best (if not the best) nascar sponsorships with him and will be an asset to any program. There's absolutely no way that he wont get top notch equipment in return.

[Ted S]

What is Earnhardt's price? He'll bring lots of sponsorship, but he has a huge salary. If he wants to stay with Chevy (query why that restriction; how much are they paying?), his options are limited especially if RCR and DEI move closer. Is this whole thing just a negotiating ploy and is DEI still his best option?

[Cindy_AL]

I think Jr wants a championship more than a big salary.

[Sparky1329]

I think Jr wants a championship more than a big salary.

I'll second that. :)

[ms0362]

He'll go to RCR