Covid-19 Pandemic (Corona Virus)

[Sulland]

The Covid-19 Virus are now declared a world wide Pandemic by the UN.

European countries now goes more or less into a periode of lock-down.
My country just stopped the following services to try to prevemt spread of the virus.

All kindergartens,schools, universities have locked doors.
All sports are stopped, also training with groups.
avoid all physical contact with other people. If needed keep distance to others at 1-2 meters.
People comimg into Norway via airplane or train, will if they come from areas with corona virus, be returned directly.
Norwegians are to stop all travel abroad from today 1800.
All norwegians will if possible work from home via internet.
All in all the largest number of restrictions for Norwegians since World War ll.
this is a national dugnad from all norwegians to minimize the spread of Covid-19, to protect the most vounrable in the population.
Assessmemt: 2,2 million of 5 million Norwegians could be infected by the virus, if nothing is done!
Most people will not feel much, some will have some small issues, some will be taken to hospital, many that have other cronic illness could have large issues, many old and sick people will die.


Many countries are doing the same.

So this will affect also all sport where many people are gathered.
Stock markets are cracking, and implications will be huge for the whole world as it looks now.

Looks like this will be a great factor in 2020, and maybe for years to come, depending how bad this turns out to be.
So lets see what this does to Rally in the 2020 season, but my assememt is that it will be very limited, since rallies will be cancelled..

[Damian Baldi]

I was talking with my nephew who lives in Denmark and there the situation is as you describe.

Here in Argentina, I'm working right now to allow all the call center agents to work from home. But schools and companies are still working as usual.

[Fast Eddie WRC]

1st Round of the ERC, Rally Azores, postponed.

1st Round of the Irish Tarmac Championship, the West Cork Rally, postponed.

[Fast Eddie WRC]

Markus Ippach @ma_ipp

Today starts #RallyMexico.

Let us all enjoy it, this will be the last #WRC event for a long time.

[EstWRC]

Markus Ippach @ma_ipp

Today starts #RallyMexico.

Let us all enjoy it, this will be the last #WRC event for a long time.

im afraid of this too, next rally could be safary or even finland

[denkimi]

unfortunately the hysteria and way too drastic measures taken have already caused way more harm than the virus itself ever could.

it will be a nice case to study later. how giving a flue a new name made the world economy collapse.

[tommeke_B]

unfortunately the hysteria and way too drastic measures taken have already caused way more harm than the virus itself ever could.

it will be a nice case to study later. how giving a flue a new name made the world economy collapse.

I don't think any of us here is in a position to judge wether we're dealing with hysteria right now, or if we're still underestimating it. Time will tell. Fact is that there is a large social pressure to cancel all sports events, including motorsport events.

[T16]

I don't think any of us here is in a position to judge wether we're dealing with hysteria right now, or if we're still underestimating it. Time will tell. Fact is that there is a large social pressure to cancel all sports events, including motorsport events.

What a very well balanced post.

[denkimi]

I don't think any of us here is in a position to judge wether we're dealing with hysteria right now, or if we're still underestimating it. Time will tell. Fact is that there is a large social pressure to cancel all sports events, including motorsport events.
judging by the number of deaths its just hysteria.

here in belgium we have 3 dead people, 3 already sick seniors of 73, 86 and 90 years old.
and for that they nearly shut the whole country down.

the average weekend traffic causes more casualties than that.

[Katvala]

That's because it only has had a little while to spread. Without any measures taken we'd see way bigger numbers. Italys situation is dire at the moment.

Sent from my F8331 using Tapatalk

[RS]

UK government are not cancelling sporting events at the moment. Their argument seems to be it is actually healthy for the population to build up some immunity to this virus for the future. The issue is to not put elderly or vulnerable people at risk and to slow the spread of the virus in order that the health service don’t have a huge influx all at once.

[Rally Power]

The Covid-19 Virus are now declared a world wide Pandemic by the UN.
(...)

Thanks Sulland, we‘re all day bombarded by the media and the authorities with info about the virus and now even here there’s a specific thread about it…you could at least put it in the Rally Bar topic; maybe one of these days scientists will find that a couple of bears and a few shots are the best way to prevent the bug ;)

Now seriously, best wishes to everyone on this troubled times; hope you can all live them in a safe and positive way and that Rallysport can be resumed any time soon.

[EstWRC]

Rally Power Has there been any info regarding rally Portugal situation ?

[Rally Power]

Rally Power Has there been any info regarding rally Portugal situation ?

Nope. Too early to tell; motorsport series around the world are only canceling or delaying March and April events; RP is in mid May, maybe things gets better during April. Fingers crossed!

[Allez Andruet]

Come on guys, let's face the harsh reality. This is World wide pandemic and we all know what that means. We should be happy if we're able to run Rally Finland as scheduled.

[tommeke_B]

In Belgium all recreative activities are cancelled, schools, bars and restaurants are closed. So no Spa Rally this weekend.

[denkimi]

That's because it only has had a little while to spread. Without any measures taken we'd see way bigger numbers. Italys situation is dire at the moment.

Sent from my F8331 using Tapatalk
If things are actually as bad as they claim, hundereds of thousands or millions are already infected.

And the situation is bad because they absolutely want to quarantine patients in hospitals. If they would just handle it like a flue and keep everybody at home for a week, there would be no problem.

The whole of belgium is being shut down because 3 sick old people died.
That is not rational, that is clear hysteria.

[Allez Andruet]

That is not rational, that is clear hysteria.

As of now, we're not sure how the virus acts going forward so let's just believe what the authorities say, ok? We'll rally again once the time is right. As on the special stages - safety first.

[flat_right]

There is a web page, where you can follow "live" how is the situation in the world: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Quite interesting I must say. We can see how bad the situation is in Italy and also for my surprise in Norway. These two have the highest cases per 1M in Europe. They also say that so far there has been 12 confirmed cases in Mexico and no deaths. Also one graph caught my eye where we can see, that young people mostly survive, if they get the virus.

1937

[Fast Eddie WRC]

UK government are not cancelling sporting events at the moment. Their argument seems to be it is actually healthy for the population to build up some immunity to this virus for the future. The issue is to not put elderly or vulnerable people at risk and to slow the spread of the virus in order that the health service don’t have a huge influx all at once.

Correct.

Plus there's more to cancelling events than slowing the spread.

Emergency services and medical staff have to be at sporting events and they are needed much more elsewhere.

[NickRally]

Just finished watching today's episode of Amazon's new series Star Trek, fittingly Captain Picard's words were "Fear is the great destroyer".

[Mirek]

judging by the number of deaths its just hysteria.

here in belgium we have 3 dead people, 3 already sick seniors of 73, 86 and 90 years old.
and for that they nearly shut the whole country down.

the average weekend traffic causes more casualties than that.

Three weeks ago Italy had 5 (five!) confirmed infected people. Now they have over 1000 dead and the number is close to 200 per day. The whole medical system collapsed and the country is totally paralysed. You'd better take it seriously or you end with the same disaster. Temporarily giving up part of our comfort and entertainment is the least we can do.

[bluuford]

Just a comparision. Two years ago we had seasonal swine flu in Estonia. Over 1000 people were put in hospital and 94 of them died, most of them old people. Reading the descriptions how young people survived the flu is horrific compared to what is happening with 90% cases of current virus. So, when you calculate that here we have only 1.3 milion people. 94 died back then. in Italy, there are approximately 60 mln, that is ca 45 times more, if we multiply 45*94=4230. I would say, we have seen something similar.
According to the mathematical models, number of new infected people in Italy should stabilize in next few days and start to decrease in about week time. Lets see how mathematics work out this time.

[pantealex]

Statistics show that Russia has only 7 infected...

China is next Russia.

Finland is also next to Russia and we have hundreds cases

So Russia isn´t telling the truth...

Would be much better if all countries were honest...

[Franky]

Statistics show that Russia has only 7 infected...

China is next Russia.

Finland is also next to Russia and we have hundreds cases

So Russia isn´t telling the truth...

Would be much better if all countries were honest...

If you don't test on large scale, then there's nothing to report.

[Mirek]

If you don't test on large scale, then there's nothing to report.

I think that probably only south Korean numbers show something close to the reality in terms of the ratio between the number of infected and deceased people because the Koreans did hundreds of thousands of tests in whole neighbourhoods. In most of the other countries the real number of infected people is unknown because many, especially the young, have no symptoms at all or very light issues. As a result even with humble reporting we get numbers which are a) incomplete depending on the level of testing and b) show situation from 1-2 weeks back - due to the incubation period. Hence why the measures can not be taken in a reaction process but must be taken precautionally.

To be honest no matter how I dislike the government I wouldn't like to be in their situation because in terms of the public response there is little to win for them now. Either they take drastic measures which limit the freedom of people and if those work the people will say that those weren't needed because nothing so bad actually happened. Or they keep softer approach which may result in a disaster. I don't speak about economical damage - that comes with both scenarios and IMHO isn't irrecoverable.

[Fast Eddie WRC]

My local government workplace just called me. In a worst-case scenario I will be told to work from home, using my own personal computer and my own broadband.

Usually homeworkers have a separate computer and separate secure broadband line connection.

Now if this happens, and happens on a big scale, can you imagine the security implications...

[Sulland]

There is a web page, where you can follow "live" how is the situation in the world: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Quite interesting I must say. We can see how bad the situation is in Italy and also for my surprise in Norway. These two have the highest cases per 1M in Europe. They also say that so far there has been 12 confirmed cases in Mexico and no deaths. Also one graph caught my eye where we can see, that young people mostly survive, if they get the virus.

1937
Most og Norways people that has tested positive to Corona, are people that have been to an alpine skiing holiday ine North Italy or Austria.
All of these ill or not, are in quaranteen at home right now.
Until yesterday the helth authorities had full control of all infected, and could trail it back to who where in the different chains in the infection.
yesterday they got reports of new people infected, that they could not trace back, and then they put this set of limiting factors in place.

The next big outbreak could be in the US, where the "put your head in the sand" policy of their intelligent president could prove to be a disaster!

[Mirek]

My local government workplace just called me. In a worst-case scenario I will be told to work from home, using my own personal computer and my own broadband.

Usually homeworkers have a separate computer and separate secure broadband line connection.

Now if this happens, and happens on a big scale, can you imagine the security implications...

The home connection is not a big risk IMHO, sure not bigger than hotel one for example (I am on home office now too). But you need to have properly set and secured computer, so in your case the safety risk comes from using your own computer instead of the company one. That is IMHO indeed a big security risk but it was probably evaluated and found acceptable in this situation by your superior.

[Päss1928]

My whole company went to home office from today in Estonia, we got to take our company PC-s with us. Perfect situation to lay back and watch the rally :D

[AnttiL]

My whole company went to home office from today in Estonia, we got to take our company PC-s with us. Perfect situation to lay back and watch the rally :D

Except that the rally starts just when the office hours end.

I've been also working from home for a week now.

[Päss1928]

Except that the rally starts just when the office hours end.

I've been also working from home for a week now.

I'm not working during normal office ours, got 24/7 shifts so it's a bit different for me. Anyway, this will probably be the last wrc event in the next coming months.

People that are talking sh*t about the small death % and this virus being overhyped, this is the kind of attitude that spreads the virus. Don't be irresponsible. The main effect here is economical, a good chance that some of us here will be out of jobs because of it. Read the news and be aware of what's going on in the world. I get the feeling that so many of us had no idea of what's going on, then it suddenly hits them and the shops get cleaned within 1 day as it happened here in Estonia.

[dimviii]

Statistics show that Russia has only 7 infected...

China is next Russia.

Finland is also next to Russia and we have hundreds cases

So Russia isn´t telling the truth...

Would be much better if all countries were honest...

same as Turkey.

[denkimi]

The main effect here is economical, a good chance that some of us here will be out of jobs because of it.
Those effect are not due to the virus, but due to the measures taken against it.
The virus itself does nearly no harm, but the governments panicking and creating fear about it might cause a collapse the economy.

Meanwhile every day more people die from the flu than there are new infections with corona.

[Mirek]

Those effect are not due to the virus, but due to the measures taken against it.
The virus itself does nearly no harm, but the governments panicking and creating fear about it might cause a collapse the economy.

Meanwhile every day more people die from the flu than there are new infections with corona.

240 people of 2 million cases died this year from flu in Italy. 200 people died from COVID-19 only yesterday. 2000 new cases were detected and 200 people died in the same one day. No, even millions of flu cases never create a situation when the medical system is totally oversaturated just like it happened in Wu Han or Lombardia. In situation like that the people die without help because there are no means left to help them. How many oxygen ventilators does Belgium have? Our country with similar size has 3600. Do you understand that if you ignore the threat and the virus spreads every person who needs the oxygen and is over the number of the ventilators in the country automatically dies? That's what is happening in Italy now. Currently 9% of the world cases need intensive care and air ventilation. How many flu cases do you have annually in Belgium? 300-500 thousand? If 9% of such number would need an intensive care it would be 30-50 thousand. In Belgium You have 15,9 ICU beds per 100000 people, i.e. 1800 in the whole country. Go figure why the comparison with flu is nonsense.

All those measures have the only target - to keep the spread as low as possible so that it doesn't overcome the limits of the medical system. Until that point everything looks under control because the system can cope with that but once you are over the limit it gets totally out of control and people start to die en masse. Unfortunately some stupid people don't see that the line dividing the two states of things is very thin. Once you are under and everything looks fine, once you are over you have Lombardia.

[Päss1928]

Those effect are not due to the virus, but due to the measures taken against it.
The virus itself does nearly no harm, but the governments panicking and creating fear about it might cause a collapse the economy.


In theory you are correct. But this is the price that we as human kind choose to pay for those lives that would end if we didn't take any measures.

The mortality rate of seasonal flu is ~0.1%. The mortality rate of corona is undetermined yet, but it is somewhere around 2-3%. The mortality rate of 80+ year-olds is over 15%, would you bring it to your close relatives? These are just the face-value theoretical numbers we have now, once we go past our health-care capacity, they escalate even more as Mirek pointed out. It already happened in certain regions of Italy, that's why their mortality rate is huge at the moment: https://www.motorsportforums.com/showthread.php?40523-Covid-19-Pandemic-(Corona-Virus)&p=1244323#post1244323

[Sulland]

Are all motorsport events cancelled until further notice in your countries now?

When do you see it all can start up again, or can we forget the 2020 season?

[Mirek]

Nobody knows at the moment. China got it under control by using measures which are basically impossible in Europe. Therefore nobody can say how long it will take. So far the situation is getting worse everywhere and the early predictions about the development in Italy already failed. Stay home, take care.

[tommeke_B]

China got it under control, but have let it go a bit farther than most European countries before taking action, although their actions were very serious and quick once started. Now we also see very different measures inside Europe, with especially The Netherlands and the UK acting less and later than others. Countries closing borders etc. Once the situation is under control and "normal" life can start again, then we can start thinking about rallying...

[Farbar1]

I think I would prefer Donald in charge than some of those stange European leaders.

[deephouse]

I don't get it why people are still pretty much selfish and egoistic. And most of them are olders. They say that they survived more worst situtations and they will that ''little virus''. I'm not worried about myself, but I respect and I stay at home just to help to be over this soon as possible. I miss the sporting events.

[krissucool]

I think I would prefer Donald in charge than some of those stange European leaders.

What is wrong with you? He has the IQ of a toddler.

European leaders might be shite but they are at least grown up people.

[Fast Eddie WRC]

I dont think anything will return to 'normal', including rally, until there is a tested and widely-available vaccine.

This is likely to take at least a year, so 2020 will probably be a complete write-off.

[Kaps]

I dont think anything will return to 'normal', including rally, until there is a tested and widely-available vaccine.

This is likely to take at least a year, so 2020 will probably be a complete write-off.

I'm afraid you're right.

[Farbar1]

What is wrong with you? He has the IQ of a toddler.

European leaders might be shite but they are at least grown up people.

In your opinion I guess. In my opinion, he is doing a good job but I don't particularly want a political argument on this forum.

[skarderud]

In your opinion I guess. In my opinion, he is doing a good job but I don't particularly want a political argument on this forum.Please explain.

Good in what? Lies? Ohh, the economy? The one Obama did a good job with after last time the republicans screwd it? The economy is going down.
The actions against the virus?
Yeah, a good job there......

Just mo..ons support the lying cheesedoodle. And no, i don't support hillary eighter, so you don't start the A1 propaganda shit.

Sent fra min SM-G950F via Tapatalk

[Sulland]

President Trump is a pefect example on a person that should by; sometimes it is better to shut up, and let people wonder of you are an idiot, than to Start talking, and remove all doubt!

I have followed international politics for 40 years, and have never seen a leader of a country that behaves in the same way.
Example: Mr President, the american people are afraid of Covid, what do you say to calm them down.
you see that something shifts in his eyes, and he says; I say that you are a bad reporter!
Attack is his best defence, when he is lost for arguments, (and that goes fast)

[pantealex]

Some of you are still not taking this VIRUS as a deadly fact ...

just look those numbers of dead people in Italy or Spain.

Finland has dead one and many more will come, fact.

[wyler]

it's too early to judge the job of politicians in most of the world. Real stuff is yet to come. you can have an idea only for china. and follow the progess in early affected nations, as Italy where i live. here the easy approach -"it's not so bad, c'mon" style- was a disaster and led to army trucks removing coffins from oversaturated hospitals. i can't exclude will be different in other countries. my 2 cents, anyway: better over-react, whatever it takes.

[Fast Eddie WRC]

From weeks ago I have been horrified that 1000's of tourists were allowed to return to the UK from northern Italy unchecked.

The few hundred flown back from China were treated like lepers and sent straight to a special facility for 2 weeks quarantine.

But the people who flew back from Italy came straight through and into the community.

Now we have virtual lockdown.

[Mirek]

This is a problem of the liberal society (which is otherwise great thing for living). Here there was a mandatory self quarantine for those coming from Italy (and later from everywhere) but now we know that 46% of those people did go outside to shops, restaurants etc. Some of them started local spread of the virus (including an area of several small towns and villages in Moravia which is now under total lockdown because of that). It's a fact that far majority of cases are related to skiing in Italy and Austria in late February and early March.

Fortunately in our country the government acted fast and strong and what is most important the people took it well. People here are generally very disciplined. If you go outside for some food you meet just a few people, nearly all of them have facemasks (mandatory by the law now) and keep distance from the others. Yesterday I saw even a homeless man searching in some trash bin wearing a facemask. Currently the trend here looks not that bad. The number of confirmed infected people is still rising but it is rising slower than the number of tests. Now it is also possible to track infected people several days back by using GSM data (if the people agree) to find their contacts and better quarantine them. Out of some 1000 detected cases only 11 need ventilators at the moment, 1 critical case needs the artifficial blood circuit (I don't know how it's called in English) and nobody has died, i.e. the virus has been so far kept among the part of population which is strong enough to cope with it alone.

Why I am writing that? Because even if it's still early days and it may get worse in my eyes it already clearly shows that the measures taken by the government work. So don't be angry that you temporarily loose some of your freedom and be disciplined and careful. You don't protect only yourself but mainly the others. The sooner the spread is contained the sooner the life can get back to normal.

[wyler]

to be fair, is also correct to say that Czech republic government seized for internal use some k mask and ventilators transiting from china to italy...we should stay togheteher in time like this.

[denkimi]

Some of you are still not taking this VIRUS as a deadly fact ...

just look those numbers of dead people in Italy or Spain.

Finland has dead one and many more will come, fact.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285


Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons

We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively.

so from 2013 to 2017 they had on average 17.000 deaths per year in italy due to the flu. 25.000 in the winter of 16-17.

so we're not there yet. we will need a lot more dead people to justify the enormous economic damage of the measures.

[wyler]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

so from 2013 to 2017 they had on average 17.000 deaths per year in italy due to the flu. 25.000 in the winter of 16-17.

so we're not there yet. we will need a lot more dead people to justify the enormous economic damage of the measures.

yep. 25000 on 5,526,216 cases. now, do the math and say again your final line...

[rallyfiend]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

so from 2013 to 2017 they had on average 17.000 deaths per year in italy due to the flu. 25.000 in the winter of 16-17.

so we're not there yet. we will need a lot more dead people to justify the enormous economic damage of the measures.

That's spread over many months, and across entire countries. Try getting this many in a small region and over a matter of weeks....

[Mirek]

to be fair, is also correct to say that Czech republic government seized for internal use some k mask and ventilators transiting from china to italy...we should stay togheteher in time like this.

The case is very weird in fact. We shall not simplify it too much. It's true that the customs and police raided a privately owned warehouse in Lovosice because the company was trying to speculate with material ordered by the ministry of health (they were trying to rise the price multiple times by offering it for sale abroad). Per law the export of medical supplies is prohibited in the case of emergency.

Part of the seized material (around 100000 facemasks and respirators out of roughly 600-700 thousand) was found to be part of humanitarian help from Chinese red cross to Italy. Unfortunately in the hasty situation it was already distributed to Czech hospitals however according to the ministries of foreign and internal afairs the material will be replaced and sent to Italy as soon as possible. Most likely with buses which are going to take Czech citizens stuck in Italy beginning of next week. There were no ventilators there according to the official information.

The big question however is how the humanitarian aid happend to be stored in a private warehouse in Lovosice? To be honest I have no idea but logically it looks like the aid was stolen before and intended for overpriced sale.

Anyway it's an unfortunate situation for sure. Sadly we have also a lot of our supplies blocked elsewhere (in Netherlands and Germany I think).

[Mirek]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

so from 2013 to 2017 they had on average 17.000 deaths per year in italy due to the flu. 25.000 in the winter of 16-17.

so we're not there yet. we will need a lot more dead people to justify the enormous economic damage of the measures.

I see You still insist on your stupidity. OK, be it. Just please try to take care about people around yourself.

[wyler]

The case is very weird in fact. We shall not simplify it too much. It's true that the customs and police raided a privately owned warehouse in Lovosice because the company was trying to speculate with material ordered by the ministry of health (they were trying to rise the price multiple times by offering it for sale abroad). Per law the export of medical supplies is prohibited in the case of emergency.

Part of the seized material (around 100000 facemasks and respirators out of roughly 600-700 thousand) was found to be part of humanitarian help from Chinese red cross to Italy. Unfortunately in the hasty situation it was already distributed to Czech hospitals however according to the ministries of foreign and internal afairs the material will be replaced and sent to Italy as soon as possible. Most likely with buses which are going to take Czech citizens stuck in Italy beginning of next week. There were no ventilators there according to the official information.

The big question however is how the humanitarian aid happend to be stored in a private warehouse in Lovosice? To be honest I have no idea but logically it looks like the aid was stolen before and intended for overpriced sale.

Anyway it's an unfortunate situation for sure. Sadly we have also a lot of our supplies blocked elsewhere (in Netherlands and Germany I think).

yes, i read "official statement" as other sources. tbh i don't care why and where this material is. i just hope will help people. i was writing this not to blame anyone -it is pointless- but to show that this is far more than "national business". politic have to drop the national interest and work on global scale.

[Mirek]

yes, i read "official statement" as other sources. tbh i don't care why and where this material is. i just hope will help people. i was writing this not to blame anyone -it is pointless- but to show that this is far more than "national business". politic have to drop the national interest and work on global scale.

Unfortunately the current situation teaches us that when shit hit the fan hard, everyone is in it on his own. Now it's also well visible how stupid it was to move production of everything to China. For what is EU good for when it doesn't even have its own sources of strategic supplies? Medicines can't be produced without Chinese ingredients, protective stuff is produced in China (we have some local production but way too small for the current scale of things), supplies for massive disasters are non-existent and strategic transport ability of European NATO members is close to non-existent as well (when you look on the flightradar you see that the supplies come with private companies or with Chinese and Ukrainean cargo planes).

There is a lot to learn for the future and hopefully the lesson will be learned because a pandemic is not something unpredictable. It's bound to happen from time to time as it did through the entire history of the man kind.

[wyler]

Unfortunately the current situation teaches us that when shit hit the fan hard, everyone is in it on his own. .

doesn't mean is the best option nor we have to stick with it. this situation also showed that people care about each other and want to try to overcome this together. i feel also here people are supportive and trying to help as much as they can.
anyway, let's talk about rally. I've plenty of depressive sh!t all over social media, it's far enough. : )

[Fast Eddie WRC]

Sadly a lot of people here in the UK are still not taking the virus seriously.

No-one wears a face mask and people are still going to supermarkets and standing around close to each other in the aisles and queuing at the checkout.

The Government has had to order the closure of all bars, clubs, theatres, cinemas, gyms etc etc as people were still going to them despite requests not to and not social-distancing.

Our National Health Service struggles at the best of times... and we have far less doctors, nurses & equipment per head than in northern Italy.

I am very afraid for the weeks and months ahead.

[dimviii]

https://www.corriere.it/dataroom-milena-gabanelli/20_marzo_19/coronavirus-200-mila-mascherine-gli-ospedali-italiani-bloccate-ad-ankara-15-giorni-2b0ea5be-695d-11ea-913c-55c2df06d574.shtml

[Tarmop]

There aren`t any masks to carry... and one has to eat, so supermarket its is. Close, well, ok, there is that, but i believe it was 15-20 minutes of standing close to someone. Surfaces on the other hand can carry the virus for 9 days and that is probably the real issue.

[Tauri_J]

Masks are for sick people. Otherwise They are useless.

[Fast Eddie WRC]

Masks are for sick people. Otherwise They are useless.

I'd still rather wear one. And why do the doctors & nurses wear them then ?

Claim: ‘Face masks don’t work’
A. Wearing a face mask is certainly not an iron-clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is a main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly fivefold protection versus no barrier alone.


There aren`t any masks to carry... and one has to eat, so supermarket its is. Close, well, ok, there is that, but i believe it was 15-20 minutes of standing close to someone. Surfaces on the other hand can carry the virus for 9 days and that is probably the real issue.

And its true about surfaces. A UK doctor has warned that petrol/diesel pump handles are big spreaders ...

[pantealex]

Mask works if you don´t touch your face it but most of us are not used to wear mask so it will "bother" us and we will be touching our face.

[Sulland]

Experts here says masks help if others, if a person that has the virus will have to be around others. But not healthy people to be infected with the virus.

but as usual experts dont always agree. Not in medicin and not in Rally ;-)

[gps-monkey]

Maybe it helps a bit (wearing a mask or not)

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=484257852258273&id=108902046460524?sfnsn=scwspmo&extid=9doHImgzACygY609

[Jarek Z]

In Poland it is mandatory for everyone who returns from abroad to go to a 2-week quarantine. This includes Kajto and his whole team, who have returned from Mexico. They have to seat at home for two weeks without leaving and watch their health.

Source (in Polish only):
https://www.sport.pl/sport/7,173950,25805739,kajetan-kajetanowicz-w-kwarantannie-wiele-osob-przed-granica.html

[Mirek]

Everybody shall wear the mask because nobody knows who is already infected and spreads the virus despite feeling himself healthy. The mask is preventing the virus from easy spread. So my mask is not for saving me but for saving the others around me against a potential infection from me. Vice versa their mask saves me from potential infection from them.

[wyler]

Everybody shall wear the mask because nobody knows who is already infected and spreads the virus despite feeling himself healthy. The mask is preventing the virus from easy spread. So my mask is not for saving me but for saving the others around me against a potential infection from me. Vice versa their mask saves me from potential infection from them.

that

[Fast Eddie WRC]

This shows how much more infectious CV is compared to 'normal' flu ...

With flu you usually can be responsible for infecting another 14 people, with CV you can be responsible for infecting 59,000 !! :disturb:

https://twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1241803403619172359

[Mirek]

yes, i read "official statement" as other sources. tbh i don't care why and where this material is. i just hope will help people. i was writing this not to blame anyone -it is pointless- but to show that this is far more than "national business". politic have to drop the national interest and work on global scale.

According to new info the replacement material is already on the way to Italy in a bus with 43 Italian citizens who were waiting for repatriation to Italy from CZ (Czech citizens waiting in Italy will use the same bus on the way back). Per ministry of internal affairs the amount of Italian material seized in the warehouse is 110 thousand facemask as clarified with Italian embassy. According to the ministry the company was trying to sell the stored material for 100x higher price than standard. It's not clear if they were trying to sell also the Italian part or what was the reason why the Italian part was even there. The investigation is ongoing.

[cali]

According to new info the replacement material is already on the way to Italy in a bus with 43 Italian citizens who were waiting for repatriation to Italy from CZ (Czech citizens waiting in Italy will use the same bus on the way back). Per ministry of internal affairs the amount of Italian material seized in the warehouse is 110 thousand facemask as clarified with Italian embassy. According to the ministry the company was trying to sell the stored material for 100x higher price than standard. It's not clear if they were trying to sell also the Italian part or what was the reason why the Italian part was even there. The investigation is ongoing.I've heard here also about 10x price increase from some of the sellers.

Sent from my GM1913 using Tapatalk

[dimviii]

I've heard here also about 10x price increase from some of the sellers.

Sent from my GM1913 using Tapatalk

it happens in Greece also,if you find masks antiseptic etc.

[Fast Eddie WRC]

British PM is in a COBR (Emergency) meeting discussing a total UK lockdown as people are not heeding the advice to stay home or practicing social-distancing.

[tommeke_B]

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/business-52006907/the-prodrive-motorsport-company-it-switching-its-factory-to-ventilators?fbclid=IwAR3Bht041OgpM7eI2yT8UXRQPtDgv hcw6YbFmqMyal9U4BfZbg0IoudO6pI

At least something positive (motorsport-related in a way), Prodrive is producing ventilators for UK hospitals.

[Jarek Z]

With flu you usually can be responsible for infecting another 14 people, with CV you can be responsible for infecting 59,000 !! :disturb:

So why are you doing this guys? :O
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-52003076

[Gregor-y]

I think I would prefer Donald in charge than some of those stange European leaders.

Trust me, no.


At least something positive (motorsport-related in a way), Prodrive is producing ventilators for UK hospitals.

Oh, are they carbon fiber? I know that's one of their specialties these days.

[Jarek Z]

This 8-minute video seems to be a good explanation of how coronavirus works and why it is so dangerous:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY

[denkimi]

yep. 25000 on 5,526,216 cases. now, do the math and say again your final line...
6000 deaths on an estimated 650.000 cases. should be about 50.000 deaths if it would ever infect the same number of people.

that's about two to three years worth of flu.


That's spread over many months, and across entire countries. Try getting this many in a small region and over a matter of weeks....
the average flu epidemic lasts 5 weeks, killing thousands a day at its peak.
the average flu epidemic kills about 10% of hospitalized patients, corona kills about 9%.

yes its bad, yes it kills people. but looking at it objectively, it is really not that bad that we should shut down the entire economy. we accept much bigger numbers of deaths from other causes without creating a fuzz about it.

[Mirek]

6000 deaths on an estimated 650.000 cases. should be about 50.000 deaths if it would ever infect the same number of people.

that's about two to three years worth of flu.


the average flu epidemic lasts 5 weeks, killing thousands a day at its peak.
the average flu epidemic kills about 10% of hospitalized patients, corona kills about 9%.

yes its bad, yes it kills people. but looking at it objectively, it is really not that bad that we should shut down the entire economy. we accept much bigger numbers of deaths from other causes without creating a fuzz about it.

Many more people don't die only because of those measures. You keep bringing completely idiotic comparisons.

[liposh]

At least now we know we should do the quarantine earlier and make it 2 weeks of 100% quarantine, nobody out of his house, closed borders worldwide and after those two weeks open everything again. This crisis will kill thousands and thousands people worlwide because of suicides, homelessness and hunger within next two years. The economical crisis is bigger problem than COVID itself. I hope you agree with that Mirek.

[KiwiWRCfan]

The economical crisis is bigger problem than COVID itself.

I don't think I have ever read a statement in the forum I could more strongly disagree with. Much better to be alive in a few months and dealing with economic crisis than have had exponentially higher numbers of deaths from Covid-19. Now is the time to STAY HOME AND SAVE LIVES ! ! !

[liposh]

And you are not worried about next year they can close the borders for 6 months because of standard flu epidemy? Because the numbers, mortality and even reproduction number R0 =2-3 are very simmilar. It is not like one person can spread flu to 2 another people and COVID to 50. It is still R0=2-3 for both. This number is the only one important for this discussion. So they are moving or even canceling Olympic games because of flu. And as I said before: The chance that (for example) a postman can cough standard flu into my grandma´s face and it will be terminal for her is 100x bigger (and I am not exaggerating) and they are not canceling Olympic games because of my granny in normal situation.

[AnttiK7]

And you are not worried about next year they can close the borders for 6 months because of standard flu epidemy? Because the numbers, mortality and even reproduction number R0 =2-3 are very simmilar. It is not like one person can spread flu to 2 another people and COVID to 50. It is still R0=2-3 for both. This number is the only one important for this discussion. So they are moving or even canceling Olympic games because of flu. And as I said before: The chance that (for example) a postman can cough standard flu into my grandma´s face and it will be terminal for her is 100x bigger (and I am not exaggerating) and they are not canceling Olympic games because of my granny in normal situation.

We simply don't know enough of what the long term effects are of catching this virus...for anyone, no matter how healthy or young you are. It's still too new, we have only data for a couple of months and that's it. That's nothing really. We already know it is really bad for vulnerable and old people. However, there are also cases of young and healthy people without underlying health conditions, whose lungs have been seriously compromised by this virus and even long time afterwards, they haven't recovered even close back to normal.

Here's one example:
https://www.bbc.com/sport/africa/52010616


"Although the most severe symptoms (extreme fever) have eased, I am still struggling with serious fatigue and a residual cough that I can't shake," said the six-time world champion.
"Any physical activity like walking leaves me exhausted for hours."

Now is really not the time to play Russian roulette and worry about economy. Always better to be poor and healthy than rich and sick. I'll happily take significant economic hardship and face long unemployment, over catching this virus and then spreading it to other people more vulnerable than me. Much easier then also to rebuild the economy some day with a healthy population. It's amazing there are still some countries who are clearly not taking this seriously enough and have chosen the Russian roulette approach (Sweden). Stay home people.

[Päss1928]

And you are not worried about next year they can close the borders for 6 months because of standard flu epidemy? Because the numbers, mortality and even reproduction number R0 =2-3 are very simmilar. It is not like one person can spread flu to 2 another people and COVID to 50. It is still R0=2-3 for both. This number is the only one important for this discussion. So they are moving or even canceling Olympic games because of flu. And as I said before: The chance that (for example) a postman can cough standard flu into my grandma´s face and it will be terminal for her is 100x bigger (and I am not exaggerating) and they are not canceling Olympic games because of my granny in normal situation.

Have you compared the mortality rates? 0.1% vs agreed 2-3%. Italy's current official statistics suggest 9.5%.

[Mirek]

And you are not worried about next year they can close the borders for 6 months because of standard flu epidemy? Because the numbers, mortality and even reproduction number R0 =2-3 are very simmilar. It is not like one person can spread flu to 2 another people and COVID to 50. It is still R0=2-3 for both. This number is the only one important for this discussion. So they are moving or even canceling Olympic games because of flu. And as I said before: The chance that (for example) a postman can cough standard flu into my grandma´s face and it will be terminal for her is 100x bigger (and I am not exaggerating) and they are not canceling Olympic games because of my granny in normal situation.

That is simply wrong in everthing you wrote.

Incubation period of flu 1-2 days, with covid-19 14 days

People with covid-19 are infectious up to two weeks before they get ill or may not be ill at all and despite that they are infectious and can cause infection of hundreds of people during such a long non-symptomatic period. That is not the case with flu.

Infection rate of flu is around 1,3. Of covid-19 it is 2,6-3,0 per recent studies. That is huge difference and totally incomparable especially in combination with the previous point. Much higher infection rate in combination with long non-symptomatic incubation period means that one single person can infect thousands before he even gets ill.

Flu is seasonal. Covid-19 most likely isn't because it spreads in warmer countries as well.

Mortality rate is not similar at all. It is similar only if there are very early and very strong social distancing measures applied and not without them! You can not compare situations where for one illness you let free spread and for the other you do everything possible to stop it and than compare the number of ill and dead people. That's rubbish. Currently of the closed cases in Italy 45% died and all over the globe 14%.

Mortality rate is low ONLY till the point when the medical system is saturated. After that it skyrockets. Without social distancing measures that point comes in two to three weeks, after that no matter what you say and no matter how you try to downplay you must anyway deploy those social distancing measures because there is no other choice left. As a result you get way more dead people and way bigger economic damage than if you did it early!

The economic argument is stupid too. We have already enough proofs that letting the epidemic to develop cause in the end much bigger economic problems than to fight it. In the end even UK and USA found that they have to apply the social distancing measures or they face a countrywide disaster.

[Fast Eddie WRC]

So why are you doing this guys? :O
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-52003076

Yep but at least that's people going to work.

This was the main cause of the lockdown - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-52005033

IDIOTS !!

Great work by locals:
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/148C8/production/_111386148_img_4574.jpg

[tonis_t]

And you are not worried about next year they can close the borders for 6 months because of standard flu epidemy? Because the numbers, mortality and even reproduction number R0 =2-3 are very simmilar. It is not like one person can spread flu to 2 another people and COVID to 50. It is still R0=2-3 for both. This number is the only one important for this discussion. So they are moving or even canceling Olympic games because of flu. And as I said before: The chance that (for example) a postman can cough standard flu into my grandma´s face and it will be terminal for her is 100x bigger (and I am not exaggerating) and they are not canceling Olympic games because of my granny in normal situation.
All anybody can say is check your sources... R0 is not so similar and incubation time while contagious is way longer for corona than flu without symptoms. Hospitalization rate is way higher on corona than flu. Flu can be fought with vaccines, corona does not have vaccine. It is the snowball effect that is fought against with those measures. All the people who know what is going on, doctors, and other scientists say that you are not correct and your info is wrong.
Lets look at Italy for example:
Since the start of flu season in October 2019, 2,768,000 cases across the country have been confirmed by laboratory tests, according to data from InfluNet published on January 19.

A total of 488,000 cases were reported last week alone, signalling that flu season is hitting its peak in January as predicted. 240 deaths have so far been reported, slightly lower than the expected 258. Most of the fatal cases are elderly patients who suffered complications after contracting the virus
Now lets see corona in Italy:63,927 confirmed cases and 6077 deaths as of yesterday. The numbers do not look similar to influenza do they?
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tt3MDyJiO3Q6XSxHHPuZLiKY3w4=/0x0:1080x1080/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1080x1080):format(webp):no_upsca le()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19816304/flu_covid_comparison_1.jpg
However let's just agree that this is all overblown and totally stupid reaction, doctors do not know what they are talking about and you got your stuff right.
Sources: text about influenza: https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
source of statistics of influenza. Mentioned in link above:https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/stagione-in-corso
Source of info about corona in italy:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[wyler]

guys. it is way simpler. if you not agree on the numbers, just check your hospitals.

flu never collapsed any hospital.

[Mirek]

Also I read that up to 14% of all confirmed infected cases in Spain and over 8% in Italy is the medical staff. It means that the virus already managed to eliminate around 5-6 thousand medical workers in each country further worsening the already bad situation.

[Katvala]

And on top of this, a overloaded health system will not be able to treat everyone. This also goes for people who are sick for other reasons than covid 19. Surgeries get cancelled, treatments delayed/cancelled. Medicine storages gets emptied. People will die because of Corona without even contracting the virus themselves, because the resources are limited.

Sent from my F8331 using Tapatalk

[bluuford]

As there are no rallies right now, I have been involved in some research work related to the virus. Maybe interesting to read for you.

Normally, only 14-16 % of cases are discovered, rest is invisible for us. That means, we could have ca 1 million infected persons in Italy, as the number of tests are also limited.

8% of people detected need intensive care. So, if we have 100 infected, 8 need to be in hospital, if 1000, it is 80, if we have 10000, we have 800, if we have close to 70 000, like in Italy today, we need 5600 people in intensive care, + normal patients. It seems that in Italy, the number of diagnosed cases is definitely below average (14%) an likely below 10%, that means, hospitals are overcrowded and you have to choose which patient you save, and which one you let to die. If you let the disease spread too fast, results are awful, I suggest you to follow what is going to happen in next days in USA, UK, and Turkey. Easy to follow here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

My work has been to detect relations between rapid increases and weather. I have analysed 7 places, Wuhan, Daegu, Milano, Madrid, Istanbul, Brussels and New York so far. In each case, dominant weather before rapid increase was temperature between -5...+10 degrees, high pressure area, many days with light wind and sunshine and low humidity during mid-days. During rapid increase, weather has been mostly between 0 and +10 degrees, other parameters the same. The places where decrease has happened, it seems that daily minimum temperatures are mostly over +10 degrees and maximums start to increase over +20 degrees. Good thing is also rain, clouds, strong wind high humidity. It is still spreading, but weather is inhibiting it significantly.

Chinese researchers have found that over +26 degrees, virus is surfaces is disappearing very fast. Another factor is that when you breathe in, you are likely tho have more harsh consequences, as virus is directly reaching to your lungs. When you get it from surface, touch your eyes, nose, mouth, then it is likely less severe, as your body has time to react.

Now, In Meditearranen region, specially around mountains, this year has had very nice wetaher with couple of storm days with heavy precipitation. It has led to situation that in the mountains we have huge cold-bank and it keeps surrounding regions cooler, where we have currently a lot of virus cases. In case of sunny weather and high pressure system, we have uplifting airflows, so, when you breathe out, virus particles are likely floating in air for much longer time and more likely, someone is breathing it in. So, that might be also reason why around alps, there are more severe cases. And finally, with nice weather, you have more people outside

Finally, minimize contacts, but if possible, move around but not with many people together and preferably with bad weather :) When weather is nice, sunny, around +10 degrees, calm, keep much longer distance from other people.


Stay safe.

[Mirek]

Of topic. Is it possible to modify the forum so that it doesn't add advertisements directly into the posts? That's absolutely awful. I see three adverts in just one post of Bluuford.

[dimviii]

Of topic. Is it possible to modify the forum so that it doesn't add advertisements directly into the posts? That's absolutely awful. I see three adverts in just one post of Bluuford.

yes its very awful.You want to go to last post,and this part is covered from the advertisement.

[Franky]

Why not use one of the ad blocking plugins?

[Mirek]

Why not use one of the ad blocking plugins?

On my own PC it's no problem but I can't install anything on the work one.

Still it's awful to put advers into the posts. It can be placed anywhere else.

[dimviii]

On my own PC it's no problem but I can't install anything on the work one.

Still it's awful to put advers into the posts. It can be placed anywhere else.

that for me too

[Norm75]

As someone that has suffered a spontaneous pneumothorax, been hospitalised for a month, operated on and had the upper section of the left hand lobe removed, kicked out onto the street with a portable lung and what amounted to an open wound with no other option to stand up on a train for a 50mile commute home, with no antibiotics supplied by the hospital, all I can say is anyone treating this virus with anything other than caution need their head examined.

Stay safe!

[T16]

As someone that has suffered a spontaneous pneumothorax, been hospitalised for a month, operated on and had the upper section of the left hand lobe removed, kicked out onto the street with a portable lung and what amounted to an open wound with no other option to stand up on a train for a 50mile commute home, with no antibiotics supplied by the hospital, all I can say is anyone treating this virus with anything other than caution need their head examined.

Stay safe!

Heck, so sorry to hear this. Hope you're on the mend.

[Mirek]

Per official statistics (I am aware that in some cuntries it may be worse than officially communicated) today for the first time more than 2000 people died in a single day. It was for the first time over 1000 just five days ago and over 500 another four days ago.

It means that in the last ten days the number of dead doubled every 4-5 days.

[Norm75]

This was about 9 years ago so yes well on the mend . . . Thanks anyway. Does have me slightly worried about catching the virus though!

[T16]

This was about 9 years ago so yes well on the mend . . . Thanks anyway. Does have me slightly worried about catching the virus though!

Ah ok.
I thought you meant they kicked you out because of the virus.
Glad you’re well.

[Norm75]

I just wanted to point out that any infection or problem with the lung is not fun and shouldn't be taken lightly. I had the onset of septicaemia due to the neglect of the weekend doctor. If it wasn't for my wife fighting my cause I may well not be here now

[Jarek Z]

Of topic. Is it possible to modify the forum so that it doesn't add advertisements directly into the posts? That's absolutely awful. I see three adverts in just one post of Bluuford.

Don't count on anybody doing anything with the forum. Many people have big problems with logging in, I asked for help 1 year ago and nobody cares:
https://www.motorsportforums.com/showthread.php?40207-Error-while-logging-in-Failed-login-quota-Why-does-it-happen

[Fast Eddie WRC]

Use your phone.. no ads here.

And BTW my work blocks this site as unsafe.

[Katvala]

I use Tapatalk for this and it works fine. There's still ads, but they're not as intruding as you describe the forums.

Sent from my F8331 using Tapatalk

[Mirek]

i was writing this not to blame anyone -it is pointless- but to show that this is far more than "national business". politic have to drop the national interest and work on global scale.

I just read that we are going to donate 10000 protective suits to each Italy and Spain since we have now enough of them (we have now an established delivery chain running). Now it's only about logistics to be solved with Italian and Spanish side.

[Norm75]

I just read that we are going to donate 10000 protective suits to each Italy and Spain since we have now enough of them (we have now an established delivery chain running). Now it's only about logistics to be solved with Italian and Spanish side.

Glad to hear it. My only hope in the outcome of all this is that the world can become more united and those that are prone to being a bit of an arsehole have a change in personality. Maybe I am being overly optimistic.

[RS]

Glad to hear it. My only hope in the outcome of all this is that the world can become more united and those that are prone to being a bit of an arsehole have a change in personality. Maybe I am being overly optimistic.

Someone made the point that all those hundreds of billions spent on ‘defence’ each year are not a great deal of use now that we face an actual threat to our health and way of life.

[Mirek]

Someone made the point that all those hundreds of billions spent on ‘defence’ each year are not a great deal of use now that we face an actual threat to our health and way of life.

To have no army is not a solution to anything. That's just stupid. There is a very old but very true saying. If you don't want to feed your own army, sooner or later you will feed someone else's.

The main point is that states can't use their money effectively. There is enough money but the money just sinks in ineffective and ever growing bureaucracy.

Also the priorities. There was no pandemic in the world for one hundred years and no major war in Europe for seventy five years. When nobody remembers how it was back in those days, nobody is scared enough to prepare himself - even though purelly logically the next disaster has to come one day. So while our forfathers had to cope with many epidemics, wars or other disasters and they were preparing for them, we've been spending money on our comfortable life thinking that nothing can happen to us.

This is as well one of the drawbacks of democracy. Politicians are chosen for 4-5 years and they have to deliver something on a very short term. Selling the public an idea to spend their money on something which may come in next fifty years or maybe not, is near impossible task.

It doesn't need to be a pandemic, not even a war. Just imagine what would happen in London after a week-long blackout. I saw the result of a simulation game for Prague and it was nothing nice to read. We are simply unprepared.

Ask yourself. Would you vote for a man whose program is to spend a quarter of the state budget on preparations against an armagedon of any kind instead of for example social benefits?

[tommeke_B]

Defense can do it's part with an outbreak like this, in keeping things under control and helping with logistics.

A must see for those interested, lecture from Bill Gates about "the next outbreak", it is 5 years old but sadly more relevant than ever before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

[Mirek]

Yes, we have already thousands of soldiers fielded around the country helping with the situation and organizing logistics. Also the army is an organized force. While in case of emergency people can organize a lot of good activities, the army can do most of that in more organized and effective fashion, immediately and on centralized orders. Historically the disasters also often bring riots. In such case the army is able to keep preventing the country from falling into chaos which would be a disaster squared.

[Norm75]

My last post was written with hope but scepticism.
The trouble is in my country people just don't seem to want to help themselves. For instance I am self employed and the government have just released details that along with employees we now will be entitled to 80% of pay calculated over the last 3 years of bookwork.

I am in the position where I can still work, but these new measures allow for self employed people to work and also claim the 80% pay check which doesn't entirely sit comfortably with me.
My wife is also self employed and runs a hair salon which has to close.
Government say the employees will get 80% of pay, but we have to pay it first before we can claim it back which is not realistic.
My wife has also been doing care work for the elderly for the last couple of years and has been given plenty of work doing this whilst the salon is closed. She has also been told that all her staff can have work doing this job.
Anyone my wife has spoken to about this has declined to do it, as they have heard if they get another job they can't claim the 80% pay cheque for sitting around doing nothing.
Rather than work, help people in need, and get 100% pay they would rather be a strain on the system.

[skarderud]

After WW2 it was a quite heavy poliomyelitt pandemie in Europe, lots of people died and many got fysical problems.
So a pandemie is not that far away.

Sent fra min SM-G950F via Tapatalk

[Rallyper]

After WW2 it was a quite heavy poliomyelitt pandemie in Europe, lots of people died and many got fysical problems.
So a pandemie is not that far away.

Sent fra min SM-G950F via Tapatalk

True.

@Mirek. We had pandemies in 1968-70 (Hong Kong) and H1N1 in 2009... So not 100 year since last time.

[RS]

To have no army is not a solution to anything. That's just stupid. There is a very old but very true saying. If you don't want to feed your own army, sooner or later you will feed someone else's.

The main point is that states can't use their money effectively. There is enough money but the money just sinks in ineffective and ever growing bureaucracy.

Also the priorities. There was no pandemic in the world for one hundred years and no major war in Europe for seventy five years. When nobody remembers how it was back in those days, nobody is scared enough to prepare himself - even though purelly logically the next disaster has to come one day. So while our forfathers had to cope with many epidemics, wars or other disasters and they were preparing for them, we've been spending money on our comfortable life thinking that nothing can happen to us.

This is as well one of the drawbacks of democracy. Politicians are chosen for 4-5 years and they have to deliver something on a very short term. Selling the public an idea to spend their money on something which may come in next fifty years or maybe not, is near impossible task.

It doesn't need to be a pandemic, not even a war. Just imagine what would happen in London after a week-long blackout. I saw the result of a simulation game for Prague and it was nothing nice to read. We are simply unprepared.

Ask yourself. Would you vote for a man whose program is to spend a quarter of the state budget on preparations against an armagedon of any kind instead of for example social benefits?

I didn’t say we shouldn’t have an army, indeed ours is also helping with the response to Coronavirus but I wonder how many hundreds of billions Britain and the USA have spent in the last two decades destroying the Middle East that might have been better invested into ventilators, intensive care beds and training nurses (which we also need outside of a pandemic)

[Mirek]

I didn’t say we shouldn’t have an army, indeed ours is also helping with the response to Coronavirus but I wonder how many hundreds of billions Britain and the USA have spent in the last two decades destroying the Middle East that might have been better invested into ventilators, intensive care beds and training nurses (which we also need outside of a pandemic)

That's a fair point. Agree with that.

[Gregor-y]

but I wonder how many hundreds of billions Britain and the USA have spent in the last two decades destroying the Middle East that might have been better invested into ventilators, intensive care beds and training nurses (which we also need outside of a pandemic)
As with healthcare in the US, in addition to grossly lining a number of pockets military spending also employs a significant number of people so any proposed changes can be disparaged as endangering jobs.

I believe there was an article showing Lockheed's component assembly for the F-35 takes place in over 1/3 of the districts of national representatives, making their support a matter of propping up the local economies.

https://www.businessinsider.com/this-map-explains-the-f-35-fiasco-2014-8

[kirungi okwogera]

I didn’t say we shouldn’t have an army, indeed ours is also helping with the response to Coronavirus but I wonder how many hundreds of billions Britain and the USA have spent in the last two decades destroying the Middle East that might have been better invested into ventilators, intensive care beds and training nurses (which we also need outside of a pandemic)

I believe the figure (for the US at least) is in the trillions easily

[Jarek Z]

Rally drivers are fighting against coronavirus.

Davide Medici is helping to produce 150,000 facemasks per day. Zelindo Melegari has made a financial donation to the local hospital in Reggio Emilia:
https://www.fiaerc.com/erc-drivers-medici-and-melegari-help-coronavirus-effort-in-italy/

Kajetanowicz is supporting a campaign to help his local community in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic:
https://www.fiaerc.com/three-time-erc-champion-kajetanowicz-helping-local-community-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/

[Fast Eddie WRC]

It's so annoying how they keep saying Italy, Spain and now the USA have more cases and deaths than China had. The official death figures from China are a blatant lie.

Crematoria and morgue workers just in Wuhan estimate the number of deaths in the city as 46,000 !

[Mirek]

Even if so it doesn't change much. All other countries following China had weeks or even months to prepare themselves and nobody did anything. It's our own arrogant ignorance which brought us into this shit we are in.

[Fast Eddie WRC]

Even if so it doesn't change much. All other countries following China had weeks or even months to prepare themselves and nobody did anything. It's our own arrogant ignorance which brought us into this shit we are in.

It was tough on northern Italy which got the virus first from Chinese tourisits. They seemed to.lockdown pretty quick but it still took hold.

The UK found the first cases in two Chinese students and they were quickly isolated so didnt spread it here.

Then UK citizens flown back from China were quarantined for two weeks and didnt spread it.

The big mistake was allowing 1000's of ski tourists to come back home from N.Italy unchecked.

[Mirek]

No, Italy was doing nothing for way too long just like many other countries. Moreover it's not clear how it got there. Some say the Italian patient 0 actually caught it in Germany.

In the end it doesn't matter because in the global world it is inevitable that it gets everywhere sooner or later. Even at the time when it started in China there were dozens of thousands of Europeans and Americans in China and since around 3/4 of the infected people have no symptoms, it is sure that some of them brought it to their countries even without any Chinese tourists.

The point however is that everybody could see what an animal it is. Since January the internet was flooded with videos and photos from Wuhan with people dying in the hospital corridors or on the streets. We have had countless warnings since then. Despite that why only countries like Singapore or Vietnam were able to act immediately and prevent the spread and basically all western world just acted like that was not our business? Why even when it started we were listening bullshit talks about just a flu or later about the need for herd immunity at any cost? Why nobody had supplies of medical stuff prepared? This is what people shall ask their governments.

Now imagine what if China was still in total chaos (as it sure would be if there were not the brutal measures they introduced). Where would we all get the medical supplies from? That's another question to ask - why do we import all essential stuff from a country with which we often like to pretend being at war (that applies especially to US)? What are we going to do if this country actually goes into a war with us? What if it is simply just incapacitated by an epidemy? Hmm?

[Fast Eddie WRC]

No, Italy was doing nothing for way too long just like many other countries. Moreover it's not clear how it got there. Some say the Italian patient 0 actually caught it in Germany.

In the end it doesn't matter because in the global world it is inevitable that it gets everywhere sooner or later. Even at the time when it started in China there were dozens of thousands of Europeans and Americans in China and since around 3/4 of the infected people have no symptoms, it is sure that some of them brought it to their countries even without any Chinese tourists.

The point however is that everybody could see what an animal it is. Since January the internet was flooded with videos and photos from Wuhan with people dying in the hospital corridors or on the streets. We have had countless warnings since then. Despite that why only countries like Singapore or Vietnam were able to act immediately and prevent the spread and basically all western world just acted like that was not our business? Why even when it started we were listening bullshit talks about just a flu or later about the need for herd immunity at any cost? Why nobody had supplies of medical stuff prepared? This is what people shall ask their governments.

Now imagine what if China was still in total chaos (as it sure would be if there were not the brutal measures they introduced). Where would we all get the medical supplies from? That's another question to ask - why do we import all essential stuff from a country with which we often like to pretend being at war (that applies especially to US)? What are we going to do if this country actually goes into a war with us? What if it is simply just incapacitated by an epidemy? Hmm?

You should be in charge, you always have the answer to everything. You know how everything should be done and its always so simple.

Every Western government should be knocking on your door and using your genius.

[cali]

You should be in charge, you always have the answer to everything. You know how everything should be done and its always so simple.

Every Western government should be knocking on your door and using your genius.Eddie, some men have more brainpower. He has not said anything wrong and I fully agree with him.
Your outburst does not paint a better picture of you, sometimes is better to learn from others, specially if they are smarter than you, that could be beneficial.

Now don't be an a#%e and learn from it!

Sent from my GM1913 using Tapatalk

[Mirek]

You should be in charge, you always have the answer to everything. You know how everything should be done and its always so simple.

Every Western government should be knocking on your door and using your genius.

I certainly prefer to discuss objective fact and arguments instead of personal attacks because that is the only way to learn for the future and not to repeat the same mistakes we already did. Nowhere it's written that this is the last such situation in our life. It may come again and likely it will. So if we are not prepared now, we shall be prepared at least next time.

[bluuford]

It's so annoying how they keep saying Italy, Spain and now the USA have more cases and deaths than China had. The official death figures from China are a blatant lie.

Crematoria and morgue workers just in Wuhan estimate the number of deaths in the city as 46,000 !

This is a bit too dramatic, to make move more dramatic. I was also analyzing this and I found that number of deaths by Virus in Wuhan was likely around 17-19k. You know, everything was locked down for two months. people tend to die every day and they must be placed somewhere. And if you have such situation, you burn them all. So, in two months period there should be natural deaths approximately 25k people (+/-1k). if there was 46 k, we had confirmed 3 k, we should get 46k-3k-25k(+/-1k)= 17-19 k. So, people likely infected was likely 1.7 -1.9 million. Mortality rate might be around 1%. It is stil hard to calculate, but it seems that it is the case with cruise ships where you have controlled environment and no political "hiding."
So, for US, I calculated that number of dead people by the end of today should be 5500 and by 15th of April, ca 240 k. Lets see, luckily they are slightly behind the schedule.

The problem with this flue is very easy to get infected and very hidden transmission, that means number of infected people is high and worst cases all need intensive care (some say 10%, but it is not clear yet, because noone knows exact number of infected people, and with natural progression, most of the countries do not have the capacity to put so many people in intensive care in one month or so. 1% might look small number. But lets take Italy, you have over 60 million people, that means, can have 600 000 people dead and upt to 6 million in intensive care? Probably the 10% is smaller, but even if it is like 5%, it is still 3 million people.

[Mirek]

There was an area in Moravia (close to Barum rally area) which was under total lockdown for some time due to a very large number of uncontrollable contacts with infected persons (which probably ignored traveler quarantine). This total lockdown was now lifted because the officials claim the infected and their contacts are now being tracked. Why I'm writing this is that they will do a 100% testing of all people in the area in next few days.

Also a 5000 thousand random sample of people with no symptoms will be tested next week in Prague to see the percentage of infected among the seamingly healthy population. I will give You the results when they are published.

By the way according to the statistical models used by our health ministry the R0 number at the beginning of the epidemy here without any social distancing measures was 2,64. They claim that at the moment it is down to roughly 1,1-1,3. Of course it's developing situation so the number have to be taken with a grain of salt.

[bluuford]

There was an area in Moravia (close to Barum rally area) which was under total lockdown for some time due to a very large number of uncontrollable contacts with infected persons (which probably ignored traveler quarantine). This total lockdown was now lifted because the officials claim the infected and their contacts are now being tracked. Why I'm writing this is that they will do a 100% testing of all people in the area in next few days.

Also a 5000 thousand random sample of people with no symptoms will be tested next week in Prague to see the percentage of infected among the seamingly healthy population. I will give You the results when they are published.

By the way according to the statistical models used by our health ministry the R0 number at the beginning of the epidemy here without any social distancing measures was 2,64. They claim that at the moment it is down to roughly 1,1-1,3. Of course it's developing situation so the number have to be taken with a grain of salt.

1.1 is basically very, very good result. Some call it almost ideal. So, keeping the contacts minimal, virus is moving in closed "system" (family, etc.) and at some point, due to the "lack of clients" its starts to disappear. I would be very interested to hear about these stats. We have Saaremaa Island, at the moment, proved cases are nearly 90 cases per 10 000 people. And they are not testing everyone and if virus is running in family, these are not taken into account. realistically, it means that almost every 100th person has virus. And if we read studdies that 15-20 % cases are normally discovered, we can say that at least every 20th person in the island has or has had virus. that means, in every bus you have 2, in every ferry you have 10 etc. They have similar plan there as well that maybe in the future they do some test to see who has resistance for the virus.

[Mirek]

An interesting study of the transmission is here. Even if the absolute numbers may be disputed the general message about the measures and their impact is interesting. Especially the role of time of response/application of the measures: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/30/science.abb6105

Of course with the first country it is difficult to set the day 1 since it takes time to find out that something new is happening but on the other hand in the other countries the first detected case also wasn't the real number 1 I guess. Anyway it's important to note that China introduced brutal measures at day 23 while US is at day 71 now and till day 60 or so they did exactly nothing. Even now the measures are nowhere close to the level of Chinese ones (quite impossible in the western world to be honest). UK is now in day 64. Here in CZ the social distancing measures were applied starting from day 13 (getting stricted during the following days).

[dimviii]

Anyway it's important to note that China introduced brutal measures at day 23 while US is at day 71 now and till day 60 or so they did exactly nothing. Even now the measures are nowhere close to the level of Chinese ones (quite impossible in the western world to be honest). UK is now in day 64. Here in CZ the social distancing measures were applied starting from day 13 (getting stricted during the following days).

there is nice chart to compare some countries.

https://scontent.fskg1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/91526099_2434490980174279_2213654400948240384_o.jp g?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_eui2=AeER3qUlcaUIggrJoFNw0sVE-9BejG9ScQtYuk2LB3QgMaRvHLIpY4Xmal_6ueApVFq3IMznhTU HsHLB_splDX1uz4b2vWR0cBuoyhOo3siVMg&_nc_ohc=6qPSMePTVXIAX9Emawg&_nc_ht=scontent.fskg1-2.fna&oh=e47cc6671219a373acdbe33ab3e360c2&oe=5EA9B123

[Gregor-y]

The governor of Georgia claimed yesterday he didn't know it could be transmitted asymptomatically "until 24 hours ago."

With that kind of stunning ignorance or dishonesty the US is in for a rough time. Plenty of other governors were or still are refusing to take any steps, and the federal government under Trump is not taking a lead or responsibility for coordinating a national response unless it can be cast as a self-congratulatory sound bite for TV.

[rallyfiend]

It was tough on northern Italy which got the virus first from Chinese tourisits. They seemed to.lockdown pretty quick but it still took hold.

The UK found the first cases in two Chinese students and they were quickly isolated so didnt spread it here.

Then UK citizens flown back from China were quarantined for two weeks and didnt spread it.

The big mistake was allowing 1000's of ski tourists to come back home from N.Italy unchecked.

Blaming it on ski tourists coming back is naivety at its finest when it comes to the UK.

For months and months there have been dozens of flights EVERY DAY in the UK from all parts of the world already affected by the virus with no checks or even advice given out.

Indeed, it's still the case now! There have been no proactive attempts to stop the movement of people into the UK, other than the natural attrition of flights because the airlines are grounding their fleets....

[Rally Power]

The governor of Georgia claimed yesterday he didn't know it could be transmitted asymptomatically "until 24 hours ago."
With that kind of stunning ignorance or dishonesty the US is in for a rough time. Plenty of other governors were or still are refusing to take any steps, and the federal government under Trump is not taking a lead or responsibility for coordinating a national response unless it can be cast as a self-congratulatory sound bite for TV.

You can call me naïve, but I do think that the best chance to get over this nigthmare will come from the US, despite those in government. No other country has the biotech resources to get a vaccine ASAP and develop new drugs meanwhile. Fingers crossed!

[Fast Eddie WRC]

Blaming it on ski tourists coming back is naivety at its finest when it comes to the UK.

For months and months there have been dozens of flights EVERY DAY in the UK from all parts of the world already affected by the virus with no checks or even advice given out.

Indeed, it's still the case now! There have been no proactive attempts to stop the movement of people into the UK, other than the natural attrition of flights because the airlines are grounding their fleets....

Last night the BBC News called Italy the 'epicentre of the outbreak in Europe' and it is clearly the place where the worst and largest outbreak began.

Flights out of China and the Far East were the first to be reduced and then stopped.

Returnees from N.Italy were in large numbers. They may not be the only source of UK infections but are surely the largest.

[rallyfiend]

Last night the BBC News called Italy the 'epicentre of the outbreak in Europe' and it is clearly the place where the worst and largest outbreak began.

Flights out of China and the Far East were the first to be reduced and then stopped.

Returnees from N.Italy were in large numbers. They may not be the only source of UK infections but are surely the largest.

That's just not at all true.

There have been commercial flights to and from China, Iran, Italy etc up until last week. And with no screening of any kind.

Don't confuse British Airways stopping their flights with flights being stopped...

[Fast Eddie WRC]

That's just not at all true.

There have been commercial flights to and from China, Iran, Italy etc up until last week. And with no screening of any kind.

Don't confuse British Airways stopping their flights with flights being stopped...

That's not what I read. Flights have been severely restricted or stopped for some time.

5th Feb: The British man who got his family on 'last available Air China flight to UK' said:

"What about British nationals who need help to arrange a flight. Airlines are cancelling fights by the hour. Most flights from China to the UK are going to be cancelled. So if they (FO) are asking British nationals to urgently leave China, well if someone is in Beijing or Shanghai and they can't get a flight back to the UK, how do they expect the British nationals to leave China, how?"

Plus the other issue is the EU didnt do the same, so people flew from China into Europe then on to the UK. Italy banned all flights in from China but this caused deep irritation among other EU states who wanted to coordinate a 'joint response' and meanwhile arrivals continued.

[Mirek]

Eddie, You keep confusing travel ban with flights cancelations by the airlines. That is two different things. There is no travel ban issued by UK government in place and AFAIK never was.

[Fast Eddie WRC]

Watch this and make up your own mind what was the likely source of the virus...

https://youtu.be/Gdd7dtDaYmM

[AnttiL]

Watch this and make up your own mind what was the likely source of the virus...

https://youtu.be/Gdd7dtDaYmM

Not really the most reliable source

[Fast Eddie WRC]

Not really the most reliable source

Compared with what ? The Chinese account that states only 3000 deaths etc ?

[drive]

its a part of big game now - blame china, stir up rumours, ask for money from china because our economy doomed and so on... world will change...

[donKey jote]

Not really the most reliable source
not that Wikipedia is the most reliable source either but:
The Epoch Times is a multi-language newspaper[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-2) founded in 2000 by John Tang and a group of Chinese Americans (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Americans) associated with the Falun Gong (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falun_Gong) spiritual movement.[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-3)
Though the newspaper is known for general interest topics with a focus on news about China and its human rights issues (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_China), it has become known for its support of U.S. President Donald Trump (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) and favorable coverage of far-right politicians in Europe; a 2019 report showed it to be the second-largest funder of pro-Trump Facebook advertising after the Trump campaign.[4] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-:22-4)[5] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-:32-5)[6] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-:42-6)[7] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-NBCNews-7)[8] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-Zadrozny-bans-CNBC-8)[9] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-Allen-Ebrahimian-9)[10] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-BI-facebook-10)[11] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-:3-11) The newspaper is part of the Epoch Media Group, which also operates New Tang Dynasty Television (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Tang_Dynasty_Television) (NTD).[7] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-NBCNews-7) The group's news sites and YouTube (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouTube) channels have spread conspiracy theories (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory) such as QAnon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QAnon) and anti-vaccination (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_hesitancy)propaganda.[7] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-NBCNews-7)[12] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-12)[13] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times#cite_note-:4-13)

[Mirek]

Yes, the Epoch times are about as reliable as the Chinese state propaganda, just on the other side of the barricade. Let's wait for something more reliable.

[Mirek]

That's not what I read. Flights have been severely restricted or stopped for some time.

5th Feb: The British man who got his family on 'last available Air China flight to UK' said:

"What about British nationals who need help to arrange a flight. Airlines are cancelling fights by the hour. Most flights from China to the UK are going to be cancelled. So if they (FO) are asking British nationals to urgently leave China, well if someone is in Beijing or Shanghai and they can't get a flight back to the UK, how do they expect the British nationals to leave China, how?"

Plus the other issue is the EU didnt do the same, so people flew from China into Europe then on to the UK. Italy banned all flights in from China but this caused deep irritation among other EU states who wanted to coordinate a 'joint response' and meanwhile arrivals continued.

I just read that during March some 3,1 million people travelled through Heathrow alone (50% of normal number) with no health check, no mandatory quarantine and no restrictions at all. Still today around 15 thousand people arrive from all over the world every day and there is still no mandatory quarantine for them or any other check done. The flights are not restricted, you can check the arrival board yourself to see that planes keep coming from Italy, Spain or USA every day.

[Mk2 RS2000]

I just read that during March some 3,1 million people travelled through Heathrow alone (50% of normal number) with no health check, no mandatory quarantine and no restrictions at all. Still today around 15 thousand people arrive from all over the world every day and there is still no mandatory quarantine for them or any other check done. The flights are not restricted, you can check the arrival board yourself to see that planes keep coming from Italy, Spain or USA every day.

Where are the facilities in the UK that could look after and isolate that many numbers of people for a 14 day quarantine period?

[Mirek]

Where are the facilities in the UK that could look after and isolate that many numbers of people for a 14 day quarantine period?

There is no need to invent a wheel when it works in nearly all other counties. Do it the same way as you do with the people who were in contact with infected people - quarantine them at home (only a minority of countries use special quarantine facilities).

[Mirek]

I think that a very interesting sample of the free spread in a very healthy and strong population can be abserved on the Charles de Gaule aircraft carrier. Currently 1081 sailors are positive which is already one half of the crew. Only one of them had to be hospitalized though.

[dimviii]

I think that a very interesting sample of the free spread in a very healthy and strong population can be abserved on the Charles de Gaule aircraft carrier. Currently 1081 sailors are positive which is already one half of the crew. Only one of them had to be hospitalized though.

At Roosvelt air carrier already one died.

[Mirek]

Yes but what I wanted to point out is that at the young and strong population very small percentage has any problems and far majority may not even have any symptoms at all.

[AMSS]

Yes but what I wanted to point out is that at the young and strong population very small percentage has any problems and far majority may not even have any symptoms at all.
An interesting fact from the Roosevelt is as well that 60% of the infected never showed any symptoms at all, so this probably means the actual amount of infected people is alot bigger than currently reported worldwide.
Source https://www.businessinsider.com/testing-reveals-most-aircraft0-carrier-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

[Mirek]

An interesting fact from the Roosevelt is as well that 60% of the infected never showed any symptoms at all, so this probably means the actual amount of infected people is alot bigger than currently reported worldwide.
Source https://www.businessinsider.com/testing-reveals-most-aircraft0-carrier-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

In the words of our leading epidemiologist what is being published is a festival of incorrect numbers and he's most likely right. I think the aircraft carriers are a good example because the crew is all tested. In the normal population every country tests differently and some countries do testing only with clearly ill people. At some point Spain had a ratio of around 0,4 of the total number of infected people against the total number of tests which, if we consider repeated tests, meant they could not test much more people than those ill ones. I am not saying this ratio gives the whole picture but it's for sure an interesting thing to see because it shows how much the countries test in relation to the virus spread in the population.

Strangely at the beginning there was a discussion here about Finland/Russia and the lack of testing in Russia. Now however Russia has 2nd highest total number of tests done after US (no numbers for China) and the ratio of infected people against the number of tests is very low 0,02 (0,08 for Germany; 0,13 for Italy; 0,18 for Sweden; 0,19 for US; 0,20 for Spain; 0,25 for UK... 0,72 for Algeria).

[Jarek Z]

Have you heard that Roberto Angiolini, who headed Jolly Club, died from complications of COVID-19?
https://www.dirtfish.com/archive/remembering-jolly-club-team-manager-roberto-angiolini/

[RAS007]

Have you heard that Roberto Angiolini, who headed Jolly Club, died from complications of COVID-19?
https://www.dirtfish.com/archive/remembering-jolly-club-team-manager-roberto-angiolini/

Sad to hear. Very interesting little interview with Carlos about the decision to go to Lancia; good to read a little history of Jolly Club as well, such an interesting time in the sport. Their cars always looked great as well.

[Mk2 RS2000]

There is no need to invent a wheel when it works in nearly all other counties. Do it the same way as you do with the people who were in contact with infected people - quarantine them at home (only a minority of countries use special quarantine facilities).

There is a big difference between self isolation within your small group of people in your home and being quarantined as an individual in a secured facility. Currently should you enter NZ from overseas you are quarantined for 14 days, once clear from there then you are permitted to enter self isolation.

[bluuford]

In the words of our leading epidemiologist what is being published is a festival of incorrect numbers and he's most likely right. I think the aircraft carriers are a good example because the crew is all tested. In the normal population every country tests differently and some countries do testing only with clearly ill people. At some point Spain had a ratio of around 0,4 of the total number of infected people against the total number of tests which, if we consider repeated tests, meant they could not test much more people than those ill ones. I am not saying this ratio gives the whole picture but it's for sure an interesting thing to see because it shows how much the countries test in relation to the virus spread in the population.

Strangely at the beginning there was a discussion here about Finland/Russia and the lack of testing in Russia. Now however Russia has 2nd highest total number of tests done after US (no numbers for China) and the ratio of infected people against the number of tests is very low 0,02 (0,08 for Germany; 0,13 for Italy; 0,18 for Sweden; 0,19 for US; 0,20 for Spain; 0,25 for UK... 0,72 for Algeria).

Do not take Russian test number seriously :)

There have been already two studies with random selection of people. in Netherlands, it revealed that mortality rate is ca 0.63 % and in Denmark, it was around 0.19, it depends on how much infection reaches to old people and if all more serious cases are medically treated. So, in general, if you take countries where medical system has not reached to its limits yet, you can use number of deaths and use these %-es. If you know background of how much the virus has reached to old people, you can choose which coefficient is more realistic. So, for BEL we should get number between 1-2 million, in NED, around 1 million, in CZ it can be between 80-90k. In Sweden, probably over 700k. In Germany, this number is probably around 2 million. This is just a theoretical number based on couple of surveys. if we use rough estimate as 0.5%, then we should get that something 30-40 million people have been infected and of course, many of them are OK already. So, with such numbers, it is quite easy for virus to spread. in many countries this number is close to 5%, which is every 30th person.. like two persons in bus, ten persons in larger airplane etc.

[tommeke_B]

Do you take the numbers from other countries seriously then?

For example in Belgium a lot of deaths are from retirement homes, I remember earlier this week some 280 were from retirement homes, while only 31 of them were confirmed corona cases, also people who die from heart attacked are often taken into statistics... In some other countries on the contrary they don't count those people in care centers at all. The number of new confirmed cases is probably even farther off the realistic number, not only is the number of tests a big question mark, there's also the people who they test on, and te reliability of those tests...

A lot of numbers are being published, but imo they shouldn't be taken as facts, as all of them are incorrect in one or another way.

[Zeakiwi2]

An interesting fact from the Roosevelt is as well that 60% of the infected never showed any symptoms at all, so this probably means the actual amount of infected people is alot bigger than currently reported worldwide.
Source https://www.businessinsider.com/testing-reveals-most-aircraft0-carrier-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

The US military population has been treated with wide range of vaccinations/ immunisations (often 20 plus) far beyond the scope of most of the general public population of developed nations. so an illness among a US military personnel population may not be representative of how the same illness moves/ presents/ effects a general public population.

Maybe everyone might stay healthier or not get so sick if they were vaccinated against anthrax, diphtheria etc

https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article/28/1/3/567796

[AMSS]

The US military population has been treated with wide range of vaccinations/ immunisations (often 20 plus) far beyond the scope of most of the general public population of developed nations. so an illness among a US military personnel population may not be representative of how the same illness moves/ presents/ effects a general public population.

Maybe everyone might stay healthier or not get so sick if they were vaccinated against anthrax, diphtheria etc

https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article/28/1/3/567796

While this might be true there are still so many unknown factors that not even the scientist working in this field know of, and new information seems to arise on a daily bases.
Therefore if the vaccinations are a factor is speculation at this point. As written in the article the majority of the crew are young healthy so that as well is probably a factor.
Isolated groups of people like on ships and air carriers are anyhow probably the most reliable groups to make any figures of. Similar as the Diamond Princess case etc.
But I am not a doctor nor a medical scientist so I will leave this to people better qualified and not make any public assumptions,

Stay safe all

[kerry3200]

Medicines can't be produced without Chinese ingredients, protective stuff is produced in China, supplies for massive disasters are non-existent and strategic transport ability of European NATO members is close to non-existent as well!

[Mirek]

@Bluuford: Finally there are the results available for the global population infection status here in CZ as we discussed few weeks ago. In fact the numbers are very low here. Out of roughly 26 thousand people selected according to the statistical model (to have real distribution in age, localities etc.) it was between 0 to 3,3% positive per locality. The global results show that less than 1% of total inhibitants has been infected. At the moment the global reproduction number here is per statistics under 0,7 (around 3 at the beginning). Only several localities, currently mainly some bordering with Bavaria still have relatively higher numbers.

The overal number of positive tests done per day has been in the past week at around 0,5-1% (15,5% maximum at the beginning) and the number of hospitalized people keeps decreasing to 295 at the moment (450 maximum) with around 50 in serious condition (from roughly 100 at the peak).

What is also interesting is that there is exactly one known case of person who got infected in the supermarket for the whole country. By far most of the tracked infections happen in families. I would say that what we can clearly say from our results is that facemasks work - even homemade ones. Where people wear them the risk of infection spread is very low (of course I am not speaking about hospitals).

[Sulland]

Looks like we are coming in to wave 2 of the virus. Numbers are pointing the wrong way again.

At least in my country the most cases comes from privat gatherings. You also see the Covid Fatigue starting to show, and many started to forget the basics, and it all went the wrong way.

The R number went up over one, and new restrictions have come.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52473523

We will fight this virus long into 2021, and maybe longer, depending on when an effective vacsine becomes available to the masses.

So this will impact rally also in 21, but lets see how much.

[NickRally]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsintheukfrom1990to2020

Not the most enjoyable of statistics, but it would appear here in England we have been in a state of constant pandemic up until 2010 with steady decline in the subsequent years till 2020 when we went back to 2009 levels.

[bisak]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsintheukfrom1990to2020

Not the most enjoyable of statistics, but it would appear here in England we have been in a state of constant pandemic up until 2010 with steady decline in the subsequent years till 2020 when we went back to 2009 levels.

2068

Just wait till the covidiots around here jump on you about not worshiping the scandemic 24/7...

[AnttiL]

The world becomes a better place gradually. Medicines and treatments are developed, cars get safer etc. Then one pandemic takes all that development back ten years and you say it's nothing? Additionally, accidental deaths likely decreased during the pandemic because people didn't leave their houses as often.

[bisak]

The "medical issue" is nothing. This is a FACT for which there's sufficient publicly available data now to prove, as @NickRally has mentioned.

Now turning the flu into a scamdemic is really something. For which each one of you blindly obedient, mask-wearing, gene-therapy accepting, thinking-of-common-good-citizens are responsible for.

@AnttiL, probably the "accidental deaths" that didn't happen because of people being locked up in their homes, are "nicely" compensated by deaths of undiagnosed cancer or suicide from depression, don't you think so?

[Mirek]

Sorry, I didn't want to click like...

Quite the opposite actually. You know, I have never ever in my life went through a period when five people I knew, died in a matter of several moths from the same illness. I have been on this planet for quite some time to know that it's not normal at all.

[mknight]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsintheukfrom1990to2020

Not the most enjoyable of statistics, but it would appear here in England we have been in a state of constant pandemic up until 2010 with steady decline in the subsequent years till 2020 when we went back to 2009 levels.

Same source:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending2april2021

(large increase in weekly deaths correlated with reported number of covid cases).

What your long term numbers show is that UK had a remarkable reduction in number of deaths after 2009...but not much about Covid.

To support what Mirek writes this is the same graph for CZ:
https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/obypz_cr

As you know these increases in number of deaths happened even though there were various levels of lockdown/restrictions in these countries.

How many lockdowns were there in UK in 2009???
(to compare with "same" situation)

How do you think the numbers would look without lockdowns?

(Btw. Sweden is not an argument here as they actually had much more strict restrictions than rest of Europe for most of last year, the main difference is they didn't lock down completely during the peaks. Also compare Sweden with their neigbours).

[Steve Boyd]

The "medical issue" is nothing. This is a FACT for which there's sufficient publicly available data now to prove, as @NickRally has mentioned.

Now turning the flu into a scamdemic is really something. For which each one of you blindly obedient, mask-wearing, gene-therapy accepting, thinking-of-common-good-citizens are responsible for.

@AnttiL, probably the "accidental deaths" that didn't happen because of people being locked up in their homes, are "nicely" compensated by deaths of undiagnosed cancer or suicide from depression, don't you think so?

Might I suggest that you go and live in Brazil.

[denkimi]

Might I suggest that you go and live in Brazil.

there are actually few deaths in brazil, compared to european countries.

[pantealex]

there are actually few deaths in brazil, compared to european countries.

few ?

More than all European countries together...

[denkimi]

few ?

More than all European countries together...
They are 12th on deaths per capita. Behind 11 european countries. They are pretty much equal to Mexico, peru or the usa.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

[lmmjvss]

there are actually few deaths in brazil, compared to european countries.

I AM from Brazil.
The "per capita" numbers are just "numbers for a pretty graphic", mate. Things here are UGLY! Like, for real.
I caught the virus last month. Very week effects on me, thankfully. Just a low fever and some pain on the body.
But we are on the 400k deaths already. Some say its already 500k cuz, of course, we are a poor country so the official notifications dont work really well for the poorest parts of the country (most of the country, tbh)

[denkimi]

I AM from Brazil.
The "per capita" numbers are just "numbers for a pretty graphic", mate. Things here are UGLY! Like, for real.
I caught the virus last month. Very week effects on me, thankfully. Just a low fever and some pain on the body.
But we are on the 400k deaths already. Some say its already 500k cuz, of course, we are a poor country so the official notifications dont work really well for the poorest parts of the country (most of the country, tbh)
And still at lot of other countries are just as bad or even worse.

Here in belgium we have had 20% more deaths per capita than in brasil, yet the situation has never been ugly. Just a few more old people have died compared to the last years.

Nothing to worry about, 10 years ago people were dying just as fast and nobody cared.

[lmmjvss]

Nothing to worry about, 10 years ago people were dying just as fast and nobody cared.

There wasnt a virus killing +200k "extra" people per year down here, mate.

[Franky]

Some differences between the Belgian and Brazilian demographics.

Population in Brazil 213,4 million, in Belgium 11,7 million.
Median age in Brazil is 33,2, in Belgium 41,6.
Percentage of population older than 65: In Brazil 9,21%, in Belgium 19,21%

Higher percentage of Belgians are older than 65 than in Brazil, but the number of people in in the 65+ age group in Brazil is greater than the population of Belgium. Also in Brazil the hospitalisation rate of younger than 65 has been on the rise for some time.

Instead of giving you the GDPs of the two countries, here are the number of hospital beds per 1000 people in the country. In Belgium it's 5,7, while in Brazil it's 2,1.



This pandemic will scar the society for a long time. It's not just the deaths, but also the polarisation of people, higher number of people expressing their more extreme leaning opinions, the mental toll on people (be it the healthcare workers or people stuck in their reduced world) and also overloaded healthcare system which most likely has or will result in later health issue discoveries.

[lmmjvss]

Its werid cuz there is some people here in Brazil saying things like that. That Dengue and Zika kills more people per year. That the Flu kills the same amount of people every year... But I keep looking for this Data and I never find! Dengue kills 1k people/year here sometimes. The Flu is big, bit its not 10% of the Covid deaths....

Heart disseasses kills like +100k people/year here but its unfair to say that "no one cares" when tons of money has being putted into research and treatments literally every year. It used to be +400k deaths per year from heart disseasses. It used to be a million. I believe its the same for the europeans country.
Medicine and science keeps progressing in these areas every year. With Covid I hope its going to be the same because it is a thing that one person can infect another one. Its not just Genes or personal health (diet, exercise, drugs, stress...)
Its never "ok" to see +200k more deaths per year because of a virus, u'know? I mean... I dont want to see +200k extra people dying... But some want. What can I do? =[

[lmmjvss]

Random thought: How you guys honestly see "Brazil" out there in europe?

Tip: Our minimum wage is like... 200 euros/month (I know its not fair to convert like this but just for the example)
I always imagine people think Brazil is an "ok country" but we are very poor. Rio de Janeiro's beachs are rich... And the Sao Paulo city is rich. Some of the states capital are decent too. The rest of the country is not like that. Its a very poor country that pretends to be rich

[denkimi]

There wasnt a virus killing +200k "extra" people per year down here, mate.
Yet, even without that big killer virus people, except for the last 10 years, people in belgium died faster since always.

It seems brasil is a little bit more backwards, we have to go back to 90's to get the same or higher death ratios as today.

But i don't remember horror story's about those times. It seems people didn't care when far more people died in the past, but now suddenly they do.

3 millions deaths due to covid and a 120 million deaths expected due to the famine created by the hysteria about corona.
We really have done well.

[lmmjvss]

Thats what I said. If you look back there were more people dying from certains disseasses or conditions.
The reason why its not like that anymore is because we put money and research into it. Thats what we are doing with the chin-chin virus right now. There will be WAY fewer deaths in the next years and thats great!
Just dont say "no one cared back then" cuz we did! Tons of money were put into research and medicine.
Thats the idea. BUT with the virus is a little worst because it is higly contagious. Its not like heart disseasse or a pulmonar disseasse caused by cigarrettes. I think you understand the difference.

And I agree on the economic problems that are already here. Trust me. I lost my job and the part time job I was doing. It is hard, bro. And this is were we should be all together demanding our taxes 'back' from the government. They have been colecting our money since ever. They made themselver rich out of our pockets. Why arent we on the streets telling them to "hey, cut your millionaire salaries and give it back to the people. Hey stop charging for the electric and water bills" (here is a state thing. Not sure if it is privatized in europe).
But nope... All we see is this thing we are doing right now.
Two people fighting on the internet because we are kinda 'richierISH' and we CAN stay up talking Sh*t on the internet while others are dying from the virus and famine. We are all hypocrites.

[Steve Boyd]

It seems people didn't care when far more people died in the past

If nobody cared why has tobacco advertising been banned?

Why has smoking in public buildings been banned?

Why has a huge sum been spent on developing cures for cancer?

The reduction in deaths has come from long steady work against long term illnesses. People weren't dropping dead fom infections 10 or 20 years ago because they had been vaccinated against the serious diseases that were killing and crippling people 50 years ago like smallpox, and polio.

[NickRally]

All valid points raised. Unless I have missed them, I would only add three others (fortunately only first two affect me personally through very close relatives of mine):

- Severe impact on education
- Inability to get or substantially delayed treatment for other serious illnesses
- Children's self harm and children's domestic violence rates increase

Governments' job is to of course ensure that the prevention/treatment for a disease is not as bad as the disease.

[bisak]

Scientific Analyses and Papers on Lockdown Effectiveness (https://thefatemperor.com/scientific-analyses-and-papers-on-lockdown-effectiveness/)

I realize this is more difficult to comprehend than watching your stupid government funded mainstream media but give it a shot.

[mknight]

Scientific Analyses and Papers on Lockdown Effectiveness (https://thefatemperor.com/scientific-analyses-and-papers-on-lockdown-effectiveness/)

I realize this is more difficult to comprehend than watching your stupid government funded mainstream media but give it a shot.

First you claim there is no medical issue... so all these extra deaths didn't happen.

When proven wrong you start "arguing" that lockdown is not right...

Have you actually read any of those papers? I read some of those that are from actual journals before and none said that covid doesn't exist or isn't a medical issue. Just that "lockdown only" might not be the best response.

What is the best response is at this point hard to tell, more specifically the details of such response.

For example close schools? yes/no/hybrid solutions (only every second week, only some age span, smaller classes etc..)). There are tons of options in every part of society and now also lots of different "solutions" practiced around the world. Which is why there will for sure be a lot of research on it moving forward with likely ( and hopefully) lot of different views. After a few years the conclusions will converge on some common agreement. That's how science works.

The conclusion might be that lockdown wasn't best, (what is "lockdown" anyway? In some countries it meant that you couldn't go outside your house/flat in others it only meant that restaurants and concerts closed)

but I am 100% sure that it won't be that "there wasn't any medical issue".



Anyway the last sentence of your post together with your previous post seems to suggest that it's pointless to respond to you. So I'll stop and instead go eat dinner with my wife that just came home after another day at intensive care full of COVID patients.

[lmmjvss]

Scientific Analyses and Papers on Lockdown Effectiveness (https://thefatemperor.com/scientific-analyses-and-papers-on-lockdown-effectiveness/)

I realize this is more difficult to comprehend than watching your stupid government funded mainstream media but give it a shot.


Gonna be honest here. Im not so sure these current weird lockdowns are reaaaaally the best solution but I cant blame them. The first one in 2020 was literally a fear response. A new thing killing hundreds of people, tons of sick people in the hospitals. Imagine you are the major of a city. It is scary as hell! No one knew what to do! Masks werent required down here until april or may because they didnt know for sure if it was airbone or not.
Not only that... With filled hospitals, the health systems started to colapse. So keeping people inside was good to reduce the spreading and the hospital's roms and beds. They had time to buy more equipament and beds. We need to be thankfull for this because it could have been one of us in the need to use it, u'know? Its like... we should want the best for everybody. It is good for us all.
Again.. Im not 100% on board with the current actions but WHAT can we do? They tried to reduce restaurant and bar capacitaty..but People dont give a s**. I work at a bar. We were having +100/day. No one using masks.
So.. its like. People are stupid, they dont collaborate with the common sense. Thats a fact. Thats why numbers started to rise again. Here in my country the numbers are finally lower than 3k deaths per day. It took almost a month for the numbers to drop cuz this is how it works... So, IT IS good in this subject. But I agree with some of the other points. Tons of decent articles talking about how the lockdown will be bad in some areas, for some poorer people, anxious, economy....
We agree. No one here is denying this part mate.
But again.. what can We do? They tried counting on people's common sense. it didnt worked! But its a contagious virus, not an INDIVUAL's problem. Its colective. Cuz anyone can spread this thing.

[ToKu]

The masks were not required not because it was no certain if the virus is airborne, but because there were not enough masks avaiable. First concern of governing bodies is "not to spread panic" as always. That is why official information should to be treated with reasonable caution.