Which of the four times WDC is going to reach 5 WDC first?

[Nitrodaze]

I remember on this forum some three years back, there were arguments of whether Hamilton was better than Vettel who was a four time WDC at the time and Hamilton only had one. This forum was quite divided with very slender majority for Hamilton. Well, now Hamilton has gone and matched Vettel to be equally a quadruple F1 driver world champion. As we head into the 2018 season, the opportunity is most likely equal for both quadruple WDCs to extend their titles to five. The question is which of the two would you put your money on to become a five time WDC by the end of the 2018 season; Vettel or Hamilton? Assuming that Redbull do not turn up with a car that is rapid enough to cause an upset.

[nigelred5]

I remember on this forum some three years back, there was argument of whether Hamilton was better than Vettel who was a four time WDC at the time and Hamilton only had one. This forum was quite divided with very slender majority for Hamilton. Well, now Hamilton has gone and matched Vettel to be equally a quadruple F1 driver world champion. As we head into the 2018 season, the opportunity is most likely equal for both quadruple WDCs to extend their titles to five. The question is which of the two would you put your money on to become a five time WDC by the end of the 2018 season; Vettel or Hamilton? Assuming that Redbull do not turn up with a car that is rapid enough to cause an upset.

IMHO, Vettel doesn't stand a real chance in Ferrari until the FIA forces a major power unit change. Merc. in the hands of Hamilton is simply too dominant.

[Nitrodaze]

IMHO, Vettel doesn't stand a real chance in Ferrari until the FIA forces a major power unit change. Merc. in the hands of Hamilton is simply too dominant.

I don't think Ferrari want the current hybrid power unit to change very much. Besides, the Ferrari engine is equally as powerful as the Mercedes engine. The real differences are in the chassis, reliability and race strategy. The Mercedes had a poor chassis compared to the Ferrari this year but made up for it with great reliability and made no mistakes on race weekends. Ferrari had the better chassis but had poorer reliability and both driver [Vettel] and team made a number of costly mistakes.
I think if you swap the cars between the two teams; i.e. give Mercedes the Ferrari chassis and Ferrari the Mercedes chassis, Mercedes would have won the constructors championship by a country mile and Hamilton would have also won the WDC in the Ferrari chassis.

[Rollo]

Besides, the Ferrari engine is equally as powerful as the Mercedes engine. The real differences are in the chassis, reliability and race strategy.

No.

2017 - MB: 1 4 5 (av 3.33) v Ferrari: 2 8 (av 5.00 - can't include an old unit)
2016 - MB: 1 4 5 11 (av 5.25) v Ferrari: 3 7 8 10 (av 7.00)
2015 - MB: 1 3 4 6 (av 3.50) v Ferrari: 2 8 10 (av 6.66)
2015 - MB: 1 3 5 6 (av 3.75) v Ferrari: 2 8 10 (av 6.66)

The current rules have locked in advantage and disadvantage.

Not unless there is a marked change in allowing engine manufacturer's to go testing, that current set of advantage and disadvantages remain. Expect McLaren to finish 6th and still behind the MB cars, and expect MB to still dominate la scarletti.

[The Black Knight]

It’s hard to say. The concept of Ferrari’s car seems sounder than Mercedes for future development. RBR may also have a say in next years championship but with Merc speaking about changing the concept of their car for next year, I can’t help but think of McLaren 2013 when they did the same thing and paid the price for it. If Merc continue to develop from their current package and make good steps forward, they’ll win. Otherwise Ferrari could steal a jump on them.

I still maintain Ferrari had the best overall package this year, they just didn’t make the most of it. I honestly can’t call next year but one would imagine that Mercedes are smart enough to stay ahead. But it’s ultimately whom ever makes the better decisions over the winter will probably decide the next 5 time WDC.

[zako85]

The current rules have locked in advantage and disadvantage.

Not any more. Engine updates are now free for all. The big problem was in 2014-2016 when there was literally a limit on the number of engine parts that can be replaced. (Even though all parties agreed to this, that looked like incredibly stupid rule well in advance IMHO)

[zako85]

But it’s ultimately whom ever makes the better decisions over the winter will probably decide the next 5 time WDC.


Let's not forget the drivers. If Vettel performs like he did since the summer, his chances will not be very good.

[Jag_Warrior]

Assuming Hamilton comes into the season with his head screwed on straight (meaning no Kardashian/Jenners in his life) and Merc produces a better all-around chassis for next year, I'd have to give him the nod to reach five first.

I've honestly been impressed with how much Hamilton has matured over the years... Vettel, not so much. Even with fierce intra-team battles against Rosberg, he hung tough (though it was ugly and destructive within the team). But in seeing how easily Vettel withered against Ricciardo, and then again when the heat rose this past season against Hamilton, I think that Vettel still provides too much competition against himself. I really think/hope that next year is full of fierce battles between Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. I don't see anyone other than Hamilton or Vettel winning the championship (I don't even see Raikkonen winning a race, unless Vettel drops out and Ferrari allows it). But I do expect Bottas, Verstappen and Ricciardo to be race winning spoilers along the way. One of those guys could decide who wins the WDC.

Even as an American who will have to endure the suck that will likely be ESPN's coverage, I can't wait!!! :bounce:

[The Black Knight]

Let's not forget the drivers. If Vettel performs like he did since the summer, his chances will not be very good.

Yeah, it’s interesting to see that Hamilton was once again nominated to be the best driver on the grid amongst autosports end of year survey of team bosses. It just shows the respect he carries in he pitlane. He has had to work a lot harder for his championships than Vettel did for his and I think most team bosses would rather Hamilton driving in their team than Vettel.

[Nitrodaze]

Personally, l would wait till after the first round of testing before l venture a guess. It was so close this last season, l would not write off Ferrari for 2018. I think Merc are going to dump their long wheelbase chassis for a Ferrari like platform. I would not be surprised to see the Merc with a rake chassis like Redbull and Ferrari.

While Mercedes maybe forced to redesign their chassis, Ferrari would be tweaking and honing their chassis. One would think that Ferrari would have the edge off the block compared to the Merc at Melborne. But l expect the mercs to catch up within three races. If this turns out to be the case, Vettel would start the year with the advantages reaped from these three races with Hamilton doing damage limitation until the Merc comes good.

It could really come down to how well Vettel can maintain his early lead through the season and how focused Hamilton is this year to fight Vettel all the way. Also, Bottas could hand the title to Vettel if Mercedes allows him to race Hamilton or gets the jump on Hamilton to be the merc driver with the most points in contention with Vettel.

Which ever way it goes, it is likely that Ferrari and Vettel might have the early points advantage by the end of the first quarter of the season. Hence, it is likely to be an even harder year for Mercedes and Hamilton to win the two titles. But l have a sneaky feeling that Mercedes may prevail in the end.

[Nitrodaze]

Nigel Mansel has start the ball rolling by stating that Hamilton is his favorite for the 2018 title. He sees the title to be between Hamilton and Vettel with Verstapenn as an outside chance.

[Nitrodaze]

Hamilton has shown his intent with the fastest lap in Test One. Vettel responded with the fastest lap in Test Two. From a car perspective, Hamilton has the edge but is handicapped by Bottas that would cease any opportunity to beat him. Vettel is very close but recent Oil issue with the Ferrari suggest that he may be playing catchup to Hamilton initially. But Vettel has a wingman in Kimi, which kind of level things.

That said, where would you put your money at this stage of the game.

[The Black Knight]

I’m going to put my money on Hamilton. That Mercedes wasn’t ran anywhere near low fuel or even on hypersoft tyres. I think Mercedes may have a bigger gap this year to the rest of the field and on their long runs they were over a second a lap quicker than anyone else. I’ve had a feeling about that Mercedes ever since I saw it. It looks super quick. Can’t wait for Melbourne. I hope the battle is close and Mercedes don’t have the advantage I think they have.

[Nitrodaze]

I’m going to put my money on Hamilton. That Mercedes wasn’t ran anywhere near low fuel or even on hypersoft tyres. I think Mercedes may have a bigger gap this year to the rest of the field and on their long runs they were over a second a lap quicker than anyone else. I’ve had a feeling about that Mercedes ever since I saw it. It looks super quick. Can’t wait for Melbourne. I hope the battle is close and Mercedes don’t have the advantage I think they have.

True, but Bottas could be king maker this season if he is allowed to race Hamilton hard. If Mercedes want to ensure that the driver title come to them, they may well have Bottas play wingman to Hamilton and pick up wins whenever Hamilton is having troubles. That said, Bottas may well emerge as the title contender but l somehow doubt it. Only if Hamilton suddenly have the engine juju that handed the title to Rosberg in 2016 again, l think.

If Bottas is forced to play wingman to Hamilton, then Redbull could be king makers this season. Since they are close enough to win a number of races. Any of the front runners finding themselves with new issues during the season could be punished severely by the Redbull. Much like last year, as both Mercedes and Ferrari found.

[Nitrodaze]

Vettel chalks up the first step towards being ahead.

[Nitrodaze]

I did not see this coming with all the talk of the Ferrari smoke at the end of testing, but Vettel leads the drivers championship and by a good 17 points from Hamilton. Mercedes seem not to be at their usual level of perfection. I wonder if the Ferrari team have got their act together to take full advantage of this early lead. Or at least hang on till Abu Dhabi for a grand closing race.

The pendulum is swinging the Vettel way at the mo. And l think the chaps at Mercedes would start to worry if the Chinese GP turns out in Vettel and Ferrari's favour again. I have a feeling that Mercedes would bounce back at China. But they have work to do being behind in the constructors and driver's championship.

[Nitrodaze]

Ferrari seem to be emerging out of the shadow of the Mercedes as the team to beat in 2018. Much to some people's surprise, Vettel has got off the blocks with three back to back wins. He is beginning to look like the favorite to bag a 5th title thus far.

I still think the Mercedes is the team to beat. But as they struggle to harness the power of their fearsome engine, Ferrari is looking resurgent and is making hay while the sun is shining on them. If Hamilton finishes where he is starting in 4th, Vettel may build his championship lead to 30 points, with Ferrari possibly stretching the constructors title lead to about 20 points.

Mercedes Petronas team seem to have hit a bad patch and appear baffled by their lack of pace. Losing at Australia due to a glitch and Bottas being unable to capitalize on poor tyres in the closing stages of the Bahrain GP is now looking very significant now. Mercedes have always somehow managed to turn things around. But in such a very closely matched season, recovering shall be a hard but do-able. But small things such these first few races can very easily be the very factor that determines the outcome of this season's title fight.

If you had to go to the bookie to place a bet right now, l am sure it would be hard not to put your money on Vettel.

[Nitrodaze]

I’m going to put my money on Hamilton. That Mercedes wasn’t ran anywhere near low fuel or even on hypersoft tyres. I think Mercedes may have a bigger gap this year to the rest of the field and on their long runs they were over a second a lap quicker than anyone else. I’ve had a feeling about that Mercedes ever since I saw it. It looks super quick. Can’t wait for Melbourne. I hope the battle is close and Mercedes don’t have the advantage I think they have.

Hamilton may be leading the title but the smart money is on Vettel at the mo. At least until Mercedes find a cure for their tyre woes. Hamilton has been a shadow of himself lately with Bottas being the lead Mercedes for the last three races. That said, l would not write off Mercedes and Hamilton just yet. There are plenty races to come, hence anything is possible.

[andyone]

Hamilton may be leading the title but the smart money is on Vettel at the mo. At least until Mercedes find a cure for their tyre woes. Hamilton has been a shadow of himself lately with Bottas being the lead Mercedes for the last three races. That said, l would not write off Mercedes and Hamilton just yet. There are plenty races to come, hence anything is possible.

so whats your say after todays Qualifying?

[Nitrodaze]

so whats your say after todays Qualifying?

Barcelona is a Mercedes track. Everyone expected them to perform well here. Mercedes is likely to resume their tyre woes at Monaco where power is not a benefit but good aero package wins out. Redbull are likely to be strong there. Mercedes seem likely to struggle there but l would wait to see what the free practice times are suggesting.

[Nitrodaze]

Who is your money on now????

[zako85]

The way I see it, it is 50-50 now. After the 2017 season, I have been thinking that Hamilton is a more balanced and well-rounded driver, and with the superior Mercedes car he should certainly win. But at the rate his team keeps making strategy mistakes, or his car fails, or he makes bad starts.. or just because of bad luck, I think Vettel has a very good, not some kind of an outside or theoretical, chance of winning.

[Nitrodaze]

The way I see it, it is 50-50 now. After the 2017 season, I have been thinking that Hamilton is a more balanced and well-rounded driver, and with the superior Mercedes car he should certainly win. But at the rate his team keeps making strategy mistakes, or his car fails, or he makes bad starts.. or just because of bad luck, I think Vettel has a very good, not some kind of an outside or theoretical, chance of winning.


The Mercedes is not looking like the superior car at the moment. Some may argue that the Ferrari is the superior car so far this season. How l see it, is that the championship is Vettel's to win or lose. Hamilton would have to do something quite extraordinary to steal it from Vettel come Abu Dhabi.

I have a feeling that Mercedes may stop developing this car soon and move their focus to their 2019 car. Which may mean that Hamilton may have to win it with an inferior car to the Ferrari. Monza has clearly shown that they are both close, but Ferrari have a few tenths over the Mercedes and they basically perform well on most types of tracks, which is something that Mercedes cannot say. A few tenths is enough to win both the Constructors and drivers championships.

[zako85]

The Mercedes is not looking like the superior car at the moment. Some may argue that the Ferrari is the superior car so far this season.

I think this is correct. Over this summer we have seen in many cases where the Ferrari power is superior, maybe by a little notch, but not in same the way Mercedes was dominant over everyone in 2014-2016.

[airshifter]

Hamilton is fighting hard to overcome what seems to be a slightly superior Ferrari as the season rolls on. And the only way Vettel is going to get back in the fight is if he quits screwing himself and driving like he isn't already a multiple WDC driver.

At this point I think Lewis is in Seb's head, and will continue to be until Lewis gets the WDC this year.

[Nitrodaze]

Hamilton is fighting hard to overcome what seems to be a slightly superior Ferrari as the season rolls on. And the only way Vettel is going to get back in the fight is if he quits screwing himself and driving like he isn't already a multiple WDC driver.

At this point I think Lewis is in Seb's head, and will continue to be until Lewis gets the WDC this year.

As it stands at the moment with Hamilton leading with 30 championship points, it would take Vettel five race wins to get back in the lead if Hamilton finishes second at those races and both of them do not have DNF or drop out of podium positions.

If Hamilton scores 14 more points than Vettel over the next two races, chances are that Vettel would need Hamilton to have some bad luck at the same time [Vettel] winning all races to the end of the season. With what happened in Monza and the rumour that Kimi is out from next season, l think Seb may not be getting Kimi's help going forward. Which would make it harder for Vettel to consistently beat Hamilton till the end of the season.

I have a feeling that the outcome of the driver's championship may be decided in a few races time.

[zako85]

Let's not build the whole possibilities tree as we still have one third of the championship ahead. Having said that, a 30 point deficit is not working in Vettel's favor right now.

[Nitrodaze]

Let's not build the whole possibilities tree as we still have one third of the championship ahead. Having said that, a 30 point deficit is not working in Vettel's favor right now.

Fair point, l think reliability from this point may play a role in deciding which way it would go. This time last year Ferrari started to experience reliability issues. I have a feeling they would be better this year. The Mercedes package is not immune to reliability issues as we have noticed in the first half of the season, hence they have to keep on top of it as well.

On the driver front, the Mercedes pair are outperforming the combined Ferrari pair. But that may change. Somehow, l doubt it. the dynamics in the Ferrari team appears to be tense with Kimi not sure of keeping his seat next season. There also seem to be a slight tension developing between Kimi and Vettel.

The moment when Kimi took pole on Saturday, the cameras on sky switched to the Ferrari pitwall, the chaps at the Ferrari pitwall were clearly shocked and alarmed that he took pole. It was clear they would switch the drivers after the first lap if Vettel do not get ahead of Kimi.

[gm99]

With what happened in Monza and the rumour that Kimi ios out from next season, l think Seb may not be getting Kimi's help going forward. Which would make it harder for Vettel to consistently beat Hamilton till the end of the season.


To be honest, Kimi hasn't really been much help to Vettel this season anyway, at least not in terms of taking points away from Hamilton.

[The Black Knight]

Let's not build the whole possibilities tree as we still have one third of the championship ahead. Having said that, a 30 point deficit is not working in Vettel's favor right now.

If Hamilton wins the next two races, he can finish 2nd in the remaining races and still be champion. But this is F1 and one DNF for Hamilton and the championship is open again. Based on what has happened so far this year, it would be a tragedy for Vettel to become champion. He hasn’t really had many great races or drove like a true champion much this year, however, all that matters is who is ahead in Abu Dhabi. As long as Hamilton remains focused I think he will be champion unless he has a run of very bad luck. Reliability may make a massive difference in the championship. Vettel can’t afford a DNF or it is game over if Lewis extends his lead to 55 points.

[Nitrodaze]

To be honest, Kimi hasn't really been much help to Vettel this season anyway, at least not in terms of taking points away from Hamilton.

I don't think you can blame Kimi for that. Ferrari have not done a good enough for Kimi to steal points from Mercedes when the opportunity presented itself. But he has sacrificed his race many times to hold up the Mercedes to give Vettel a chance to retain or catch up to lead positions or build a descent gap to ensure a win. In reality he has helped Vettel alot this last two seasons.

[Nitrodaze]

Can Vettel recover some lost ground at Sochi?

[zako85]

Can Vettel recover some lost ground at Sochi?

To recover the ground, Vettel has to win races, almost all of them, and start finishing ahead of Hamilton. Can this happen in Sochi? Yes. I mean, our subjective probability of either Hamilton or Vettel win should be at least 80%. So yes, it can happen, but I don't think we can predict who wins the race. I suspect the morale at Mercedes is very high. The engineers and strategists have all been doing a good job, and Bottas has been a good wingman for Hamilton. We'll see.

PS: The odds are certainly _not_ in favor of Vettel. To win the championship he needs a hyper-dominant car, like he had in 2011 or 2013, and I don't think it is happening.

[Nitrodaze]

To recover the ground, Vettel has to win races, almost all of them, and start finishing ahead of Hamilton. Can this happen in Sochi? Yes. I mean, our subjective probability of either Hamilton or Vettel win should be at least 80%. So yes, it can happen, but I don't think we can predict who wins the race. I suspect the morale at Mercedes is very high. The engineers and strategists have all been doing a good job, and Bottas has been a good wingman for Hamilton. We'll see.

PS: The odds are certainly _not_ in favor of Vettel. To win the championship he needs a hyper-dominant car, like he had in 2011 or 2013, and I don't think it is happening.

I think Vettel has the car to win the championship. The Ferrari is the fastest car on the grid. Vettel has been making too many mistakes and it has cost him a 30 points deficit. The question is not if he has the car, the question is, can he beat Hamilton in a Mercedes which is marginally slower than the faster Ferrari? We have had lots of discussions about this in the past. Now is the moment of truth. He has six races left, if he can focus and be disciplined and do what he does best which is drive the Ferrari fast, maybe. If that would be enough to beat Hamilton, we would see.

But one thing is very clear, Hamilton is the best driver of this generation. Regardless of what most might say of Alonso. I would say the greatest driver of this generation if he wins the 2018 title at Abu Dhabi.

[Jag_Warrior]

As Vettel makes error after error this season (some forced, but many unforced), I have to wonder if Alonso doesn't have it in his head... "that could be me in that Ferrari taking Hamilton to task - and I wouldn't choke!"

[Nitrodaze]

As Vettel makes error after error this season (some forced, but many unforced), I have to wonder if Alonso doesn't have it in his head... "that could be me in that Ferrari taking Hamilton to task - and I wouldn't choke!"

I have to admit, Alonso in that Ferrari may have produced an epic battle. But l think Hamilton would still be ahead because some of the errors were team errors. That said, probably not 30 points ahead.

[N4D13]

I have to admit, Alonso in that Ferrari may have produced an epic battle. But l think Hamilton would still be ahead because some of the errors were team errors. That said, probably not 30 points ahead.
Just the retirement from the German GP would have meant +25 points for Vettel and -7 for Hamilton, so Vettel would now be 8 points behind instead of 40. Second place in the Italian GP instead of 4th (and that's assuming Hamilton would have still won) would have trimmed that difference to 2 points, which is effectively a tie since the difference between first and seconds is 7 points. And these are just the two most recent blunders.

Still, this is playing the what-if game and we know how dangerous that is. Admittedly, consistency is Alonso's game, but for a start, we don't know how fast he'd be in that Ferrari and there are many things in races happening outside his control. By instance, maybe not crashing out in Germany would have caused Vettel's engine to die a few laps later, which would also have meant a DNF and possibly a penalty for the next race.

[Nitrodaze]

Just the retirement from the German GP would have meant +25 points for Vettel and -7 for Hamilton, so Vettel would now be 8 points behind instead of 40. Second place in the Italian GP instead of 4th (and that's assuming Hamilton would have still won) would have trimmed that difference to 2 points, which is effectively a tie since the difference between first and seconds is 7 points. And these are just the two most recent blunders.

Still, this is playing the what-if game and we know how dangerous that is. Admittedly, consistency is Alonso's game, but for a start, we don't know how fast he'd be in that Ferrari and there are many things in races happening outside his control. By instance, maybe not crashing out in Germany would have caused Vettel's engine to die a few laps later, which would also have meant a DNF and possibly a penalty for the next race.

Quite true, hindsight is a wonderful thing as we say in England. The German GP incident was down solely to Vettel, nothing to do with the car. That was the single most costly mistake that Vettel has done. This season has been full of unexpected occurences, hence we cannot yet rule out Ferrari and Vettel. But both team and driver are at a most critical point in their championship hopes of winning both or one of the championships. A situation that demands excellence, flawless operation during the next six race weekends. You could say that the next six races is a competition of excellence between the two main contenders for the championship.

The championships can be lost or won by the slightest of error in the next six race. Mercedes and Hamilton have to be flawless to ensure they protect their lead. Ferrari being the chaser must also be 110% flawless but also ensure they get the most out of their fast car at each of the next six races. To be honest, Vettel has to win the rest of the six races to win the drivers championship comfortably. Hamilton only need to maybe win one more and finish second for the rest of the races to be the 2018 world champion and the greatest F1 driver of this hybrid generation.

On Alonso, l think Alonso may have made less mistakes and may most likely get the most out of this fast Ferrari. If we cast our eyes back to the beginning of the season and put Alonso in the car from then, l think he probably may be leading the drivers championship at this point, if not, closely matching the Mercedes. Being the predetorial driver that he is, he may have exploited the slight advantage that Ferrari has better than Vettel has done. Would Alonso have been as fast as Vettel to put the car on pole as often as Vettel has done, is probably questionable. From a Racecraft perspective, this is unquestionable that Alonso would have found a way to be there or thereabout.

That said, l am not sure Alonso would beat Hamilton over a season in the form that Hamilton is showing at the moment. However, it would be close enough to put immense pressure on Hamilton to be flawless up to the very last race.

[Jag_Warrior]

Good points about not really knowing how fast Alonso would be in the Ferrari. I'm just going on the assumption that he'd be at least as fast as (probably faster than) Kimi.

[journeyman racer]

C'mon guys? Alonso would be sufficiently fast to have to be leading the championship right now. All of you know it.

[zako85]

C'mon guys? Alonso would be sufficiently fast to have to be leading the championship right now. All of you know it.

It's true. Alonso extracted 110% of performance of his Ferrari, at the time when Massa did only 97%.

[Nitrodaze]

It would take some major F***Up for Mercedes and Hamilton not to take the Constructors and Driver championship now. The sort of mess up that would cause major reshuffle of the Mercede F1 management.

I have a feeling that Ferrari are probably going to make a similar reshuffle of their F1 management for 2019. There is a likelihood that Arrivabene may be taking a long holiday with a new face stepping up to take the helm of this promising team.

I simply fail to see how Ferrari have got their season so wrong with such a fantastic car. I am not a Ferrari fan but l still feel some frustration that they could not mount a flawless challenge to the Mecedes that has struggled for most of the season to keep up.

That said, Hats off to Mercedes, they are by any measure the best F1 team of this generation. Toto Woolf has become a maestro and maybe the definitive team boss. He probably should be if he sorts out the Mercedes junior driver programme.

[jens]

Have only watched highlights of recent races, so not going into detail about events.

But generally speaking looks like Hamilton is going to win his fifth WDC, and based on performance he deserves it. I think one day we are going to look back and say that Hamilton is an F1 legend. He is that good. I'm impressed.

Vettel on the other hand has thrown away about 2-3 potential race wins with his mistakes and that's why he is already some 50 points down. So losing the title or at least not battling to the very end is basically down to him. That's kind of sad, because you would expect more from someone, who has been hired to be Ferrari's #1 driver to lead their title charge.

I have to admit that I also expected more from Vettel, especially considering mentally he managed the title fights in the closing stages of 2010 and 2012 just fine. But now it looks like he hasn't got the nerves to handle the pressure at the front. Weird that. Already last year he had that Baku meltdown, but it hasn't got any better in 2018, has it?

Also it's disappointing, because I think F1 fans deserve a grandstand finish like we got in 2016. But if one driver is a let-down in critical moments, then we are not going to get it and it's going to be an anti-climatic finish to the season.

Of course the exciting news at least concerning 2019 is that Leclerc is going to be promoted to Ferrari. We have had Hamilton-Vettel duopoly basically for the decade and good to see some fresh faces having a go and to be honest I already like the guy. Hopefully he lives up to the promise and doesn't become a crashaholic at the front like happened to Vettel, because one day someone has to bring the fight to Hamilton and possibly de-throne him!

[Mia 01]

As it seems Kimi will be ferraris last WDC for a very long time. And, I´m not glad for this, its sad.

[jens]

As it seems Kimi will be ferraris last WDC for a very long time. And, I´m not glad for this, its sad.

You mean Kimi will remain Ferrari's last WDC as long as Hamilton hasn't retired or joined Ferrari? :p

[Nitrodaze]

The last two races typify the change in fortune that transpire when the momentum of the development battle between the main title contesting teams swings from one to another. As a matter of fact, you could go back even further to Singapore. In the first half of the year, Ferrari had the upper hand. Mercedes were clearly frustrated that their cars were struggling to keep up with the black prancing horse. Unfortunately, Ferrari did not make hay when the sun was shining.

After the summer break, Mercedes found a solution to the problem that was stifling their potential. They knew the potential of their car was on par with the Ferrari but it was not as efficient as the Ferrari on some tracks. When they applied the ingenious solution to their tyre rims, they found they had not only released the true potential of the car, the car turned out to be faster than the Ferrari.

All the damage limitations and fortuitous opportunities that Hamilton was able to exploit during the first half of the season , finally started to pay dividend as he began to extract the full potential of the new found speed of the Mercedes. Hamilton started to gather momentum from the German GP. Singapore which is suppose to be a bad track for Mercedes was the eye opener as he sustained championship momentum with a brilliant performance. And that mersmerizing Q3 lap that took pole at Monza underlined the fact that Mercedes were back on form and it became all too clear that Vettel had a hill to climb.

I could see that Mercedes' new found speed rocked Ferrari with surprise. They were scrambling since, to find an answer to the Mercedes, and have failed on all fronts so far.

The main revelation of this 2018 season was the confirmation that Vettel is brittle and impatient under pressure. He threw away precious opportunities as what seemed like red mist moments became a feature of his races. It was very clear that he was frustrated with everything, the car, the pitwall etc.

That said Ferrari are also now paying dearly on the constructors championship front by not getting the most out of Raikonen. Kimi should be winning when Vettel is unable to win. Unfortunately, the Raikonnen side of the Ferrari garage seem to be grossly incompetent. Their strategy calls were the worst in the entire grid. So kimi was always displaced from the best positions where he could have extracted more from races where opportunities were available if he were properly located.

This was a season where Hamilton has shown to all his typical critics what a truely awesome driver he is. His mettle when things were not quite in his favour and his characteristic predetorial driving has faired really well for him in this historic title fight. It was not quite a Prost Vs Senna type battle on track, but you cannot quite blame Hamilton for that, Vettel simply did not sustain a flawless and meticulous title fight.

[truefan72]

The main revelation of this 2018 season was the confirmation that Vettel is brittle and impatient under pressure. He threw away precious opportunities as what seemed like red mist moments became a feature of his races. It was very clear that he was frustrated with everything, the car, the pitwall etc.
To me, 2018 confirmed my initial belief that Vettel is not in the top echelon of drivers historically.
I remember his last year at RBR and 2 of his championships slightly tainted by the complete railroading of Webber's side of the garage.
It seems to me he does not deal well with competition, intra team or with another competitor.



That said Ferrari are also now paying dearly on the constructors championship front by not getting the most out of Raikonen. Kimi should be winning when Vettel is unable to win. Unfortunately, the Raikonnen side of the Ferrari garage seem to be grossly incompetent. Their strategy calls were the worst in the entire grid. So kimi was always displaced from the best positions where he could have extracted more from races where opportunities were available if he were properly located.

I cannot stress enough how true and important this statement is.
Kimi was maligned from the first day Vettel walked in.
And it only continued with bizarre strategies and downright shambolic actions the highlights of which was "forgetting to call him in"

I'll be really interested to see what happens with leclerc next year, especially when he starts outpacing vettel.
Remember Kimi initially was outpacing Vettel before and even if he messed up a little in qualy, was always on par or just that bit faster in the races.

[N. Jones]

Also that Vettel should not have been the 2010 champion had Alonso not had his head in the clouds and found a way past Petrov instead of expecting him to move over.

[N. Jones]

I cannot stress enough how true and important this statement is.
Kimi was maligned from the first day Vettel walked in.
And it only continued with bizarre strategies and downright shambolic actions the highlights of which was "forgetting to call him in"

I'll be really interested to see what happens with leclerc next year, especially when he starts outpacing vettel.
Remember Kimi initially was outpacing Vettel before and even if he messed up a little in qualy, was always on par or just that bit faster in the races.

I am very eager to see how far up the grid Kimi can put the Sauber.

[Bezza]

2017 and 2018 have confirmed Hamilton is a F1 legend. And it has also confirmed a suspicion I always had - that Vettel is over-rated, can't handle pressure and needs a complete bubble of support to succeed.

It is sad to me that Fernando Alonso was so bad at managing his career, when he should still be in the Ferrari and we would be having an absolute battle royale for the 2018 championship between, without question, the best two drivers in F1.

As for Vettel, you have to think how good he actually is and how much his early career was helped by Red Bull choosing him over Webber.

2009 - Vettel and Webber closely matched.
2010 - Vettel and Webber both compete for title. Vettel is quicker overall but makes more mistakes. Crucially, the collide in Turkey. It is Vettel's fault - but Red Bull blame Webber... Webber should have quit at end of 2010.
2011. Vettel has now negotiated Driver One status. The Red Bull is way beyond any other car on the grid. Easy for Vettel regardless of ability. Nevertheless, spins off from the lead in Canada on the last lap under pressure from Button.
2012. Alonso has the 4th best car on the grid and almost wins the title. Indeed, he should have, without bad luck from start-line accidents. Vettel wins with the fastest car, despite mistakes in Abu Dhabi and Brazil, his car survives. Most undeserving championship I can recall.
2013. The Red Bull is quickest but other cars in the mix until Pirelli make a mess (as usual) and then change the tyres, which favours Red Bull and hands Vettel a 4th title.
2014. Ricciardo comes and outpaces Vettel comfortably........winning three races to Vettel's zero.
2015. Vettel at Ferrari now, and has chosen Raikkonen as Number Two, who was annihilated by Alonso in 2014. Wins three races.
2016. No wins and barely beats Raikkonen in the championship despite generally being quicker.
2017. Has a car capable of winning the championship. Makes mistakes at key times and in key battles. Loses championship to Hamilton,
2018. Has an ever better car capable of winning the championship. Makes even more mistakes and in key battles. Loses championship to Hamilton AGAIN.

If Ferrari want to win the Championship, they need to get rid of Vettel. HE IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH. Looking forward to seeing Leclerc, but if I was Ferrari I'd be on the phone to two people who have beaten / matched Lewis Hamilton:

Fernando Alonso
Nico Rosberg

[journeyman racer]

2017 and 2018 have confirmed Hamilton is a F1 legend. And it has also confirmed a suspicion I always had - that Vettel is over-rated, can't handle pressure and needs a complete bubble of support to succeed.

It is sad to me that Fernando Alonso was so bad at managing his career, when he should still be in the Ferrari and we would be having an absolute battle royale for the 2018 championship between, without question, the best two drivers in F1.

As for Vettel, you have to think how good he actually is and how much his early career was helped by Red Bull choosing him over Webber.

2009 - Vettel and Webber closely matched.
2010 - Vettel and Webber both compete for title. Vettel is quicker overall but makes more mistakes. Crucially, the collide in Turkey. It is Vettel's fault - but Red Bull blame Webber... Webber should have quit at end of 2010.
2011. Vettel has now negotiated Driver One status. The Red Bull is way beyond any other car on the grid. Easy for Vettel regardless of ability. Nevertheless, spins off from the lead in Canada on the last lap under pressure from Button.
2012. Alonso has the 4th best car on the grid and almost wins the title. Indeed, he should have, without bad luck from start-line accidents. Vettel wins with the fastest car, despite mistakes in Abu Dhabi and Brazil, his car survives. Most undeserving championship I can recall.
2013. The Red Bull is quickest but other cars in the mix until Pirelli make a mess (as usual) and then change the tyres, which favours Red Bull and hands Vettel a 4th title.
2014. Ricciardo comes and outpaces Vettel comfortably........winning three races to Vettel's zero.
2015. Vettel at Ferrari now, and has chosen Raikkonen as Number Two, who was annihilated by Alonso in 2014. Wins three races.
2016. No wins and barely beats Raikkonen in the championship despite generally being quicker.
2017. Has a car capable of winning the championship. Makes mistakes at key times and in key battles. Loses championship to Hamilton,
2018. Has an ever better car capable of winning the championship. Makes even more mistakes and in key battles. Loses championship to Hamilton AGAIN.

If Ferrari want to win the Championship, they need to get rid of Vettel. HE IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH. Looking forward to seeing Leclerc, but if I was Ferrari I'd be on the phone to two people who have beaten / matched Lewis Hamilton:

Fernando Alonso
Nico Rosberg
I think you're pretty harsh on Vettel. He's made some errors that have been costly this year. But in hindsight, it wouldn't have mattered as MB is still clearly the best car in the field.

I don't know what her did that was so bad last year? He had a great season, it's just the MB is better.

Ricciardo was better than him in 14, but that's a credit to Ricciardo rather than a clear demonstration of how inferior Vettel is.

You look throughout his career, whenever Vettel's down, he comes back up. In 10, he just got away with all the errors to win the championship, but then he blitzed everyone the following year. 0 wins and beaten in 14, 3 wins and threatening Rosberg for 2nd in 15. 0 wins in 16, championship challenger in 17.


We're expecting similar levels of performance from Ferrari and MB next year? Don't be surprised if Vettel rejuvenates, learns from this year, and really makes the title a close race and establishes himself as an elite F1 driver.

[Nitrodaze]

I think you're pretty harsh on Vettel. He's made some errors that have been costly this year. But in hindsight, it wouldn't have mattered as MB is still clearly the best car in the field.

I don't know what her did that was so bad last year? He had a great season, it's just the MB is better.

Ricciardo was better than him in 14, but that's a credit to Ricciardo rather than a clear demonstration of how inferior Vettel is.

You look throughout his career, whenever Vettel's down, he comes back up. In 10, he just got away with all the errors to win the championship, but then he blitzed everyone the following year. 0 wins and beaten in 14, 3 wins and threatening Rosberg for 2nd in 15. 0 wins in 16, championship challenger in 17.


We're expecting similar levels of performance from Ferrari and MB next year? Don't be surprised if Vettel rejuvenates, learns from this year, and really makes the title a close race and establishes himself as an elite F1 driver.



Tbh, Vettel is not going to win any championship with Ferrari if they do not sort out their operational efficiency. When there are operational errors and pressure to win, the team environment becomes self defeating. Consequently drivers begin to make lots of mistakes as well. It would be a mistake to underate Vettel based on a year that demanded flawless excellence to have a chance of winning one or both of the championships. Especially going against the current best driver and team combination in Lewis Hamilton and Petronas Mercedes.

This monumental combination required meticulous preparation for each race weekend coupled with flawless operational execution at each race. If there is anything to be learnt from 2018, it is that Ferrari is not ready to be constructors world champions. Having a great car and a brilliant racer such as Vettel is half the job done. I think Vettel in the Ferrari car with the Mercedes team running the operations would have won the title. But that says alot about how good Hamilton is, to be on the verge of closing the championship with four races to go in a Mercedes that was just ahead of the Redbull for most of the first half of the season.

When Mercedes found their mojo, they instantly became untouchable such that most people forget how frustratingly slower than the Ferrari the Mercedes was. We forget that Vettel was favorite to win this championship even when Hamilton caught up in the points. Hence this championship was lost by Ferrari rather than being squarely beaten by Mercedes.

Mercedes and Hamilton did the rubber dub, soaking up the punches in the first half. And started to throw some of their own in the second half. Hence l agree with your assessment of the situation.

[The Black Knight]

I would say Ferrari had the better car in the first part of the season. I think the Death of Sergio Marchionne has affected the team without a doubt. In Hungary, a race should have been theirs, they lost. They retaliated in Spa, but since then Hamilton appears to have raised his game and I don’t know if Ferrari faltered or did Mercedes just out fox them at every turn. It had been pretty strange turn of form. It was probably a mixture but that big upgrade Ferrari brought to Signapore didn’t seem to work as well as it should. Ferrari messed up qualifying in Japan and Monza. The upgrade Mercedes brought to Singapore (I think it was) for tire management seems to have sorted their tire management issues and that gave Mercedes the opportunity to be more aggressive on set up. All small things but I am surprised at the Ferrari and the way they have faltered in the second half of the season, yet again.

[journeyman racer]

Having given it some considerable thought. I think Hamilton will be the first to 5 wdc.

[Bagwan]

Having given it some considerable thought. I think Hamilton will be the first to 5 wdc.

That is such a good point that I think so , too .

[Nitrodaze]

Mercedes leads Ferrari by merely 66 points with a possible max of 129 points still on the table. With the pace shown by Ferrari at Texas, it is looking very possible for Ferrari to sneak up on Mercedes and steal the Constructors title. The real fight of the rest of the season is the fight for the constructors title which is very much undecided but Mercedes have a lead which is by no means comfortable.

Ferrari has turned up to the US GP with what was revealed to be their pre-singapore chassis which gave Mercedes such headache in the first half of the season, and have resumed their dominant form. Some have suggested that Ferrari has lost ground because they turned away from this chassis chasing new developments that has not worked. Hence there is some rumours that if they had stayed with this chassis that won the US GP, they would have dominated both title fights. It would seem Vettel has suffered the most from this.

Whatever the case, Ferrari has found its way again and seem well placed to cause serious headache to Mercedes as the fight for the constructors title takes a new vigorous turn heading to Mexico. Ferrari would need at least 1st and 2nd place finishes over the next three races to be quite sure that the constructors title is theirs. If Hamilton finishes third in all of those races, he would comfortably be the 2018 drivers world champion.

[Bagwan]

The reds were back on form , but Merc filled the holes in their trick new wheel design with silicone before racing them , apparently , so some of their aero was missing , leading to , eventually , blisters .
Had they not done so , protest and possible DSQ could have taken the race away entirely .

[Nitrodaze]

CONGRATULATION LEWIS !

LEWIS HAMILTON - 2018 DRIVER WORLD CHAMPION

5 TIMES WORLD CHAMPION and modern day F1 legend

[Nitrodaze]

I suppose the next question is, has Hamilton got two more championships in him to match the great Michael Schumacher. As 2018 got better than 2017, l am expecting 2019 to be even better than this season. Redbull and Honda is looking like a divine union that could really upset the order of the sharp end of the grid. Ferrari have learnt some very hard lessons this season. Hence, l expect them to turn up next season more determined and prepared than ever to set things straight.

But Mercedes also had some hard lessons of their own to learn. They have won the drivers title with a car that was marginally good enough to win the drivers title and largely because they had the best driver on the grid in it. Often it had looked embarrassingly slower than the competition. This 2018 Mexico GP was the first time in ages that a Mercedes was lapped. Hence, it is safe to say, the chassis architecture for 2018 car is spent and belongs in the past, they need to find a new platform fast and one that is more agreeable with the 2019 rules. The luck that came their way this year may not be available next year, hence it is likely to be even more harder next year to keep the Ferrari and Redbulls behind. But l have every faith that Mercedes would do what it takes to stay ahead.

[Nitrodaze]

Vettel is truly classy in defeat. Not many drivers in his circumstances would go out their way to congratulate the winning team personally. I have been a fan of his and he just won my utmost respect.

[truefan72]

Agreed. very classy by Seb. He has usually been classy in defeat. Usually upon reflection.

[zako85]

Hamilton's performance went up after he broke up with his girlfriend. On the other hand, Vettel's performance went down after he go married. Coincidence?

[Jag_Warrior]

Not sure if this has already been mentioned, but would anyone else agree that had Rosberg been at Mercedes this year, neither Lewis nor Nico would have won the championship? Nico was a stronger (and more combative) teammate than Valteri. And I believe that while Hamilton would have outscored Nico, the two of them would have taken enough points off of each that neither would outscore Vettel (even with all of his many errors).

Just a passing thought.

[journeyman racer]

It's a fair question, but I don't think so. Hamilton is leading by 64pts atm, which is way too big a margin to have made a difference to Vettel. Rosberg wouldn't just be taking points off Hamilton, but Vettel as well. For example Australia, Vettel won due to fortunate circumstances. But you wouldn't think Rosberg would crash in qualifying like Bottas did. SO in that scenario, even if Rosberg qualified behind Hamilton, he'd be getting the benefit of the freebie win instead of Vettel.

[N4D13]

It's a fair question, but I don't think so. Hamilton is leading by 64pts atm, which is way too big a margin to have made a difference to Vettel. Rosberg wouldn't just be taking points off Hamilton, but Vettel as well. For example Australia, Vettel won due to fortunate circumstances. But you wouldn't think Rosberg would crash in qualifying like Bottas did. SO in that scenario, even if Rosberg qualified behind Hamilton, he'd be getting the benefit of the freebie win instead of Vettel.
Fair point, but also keep in mind that Rosberg would most likely take more points off Hamilton than he would off Vettel. For instance, if Mercedes is the dominant car in a race and the final result is Rosberg-Hamilton-Vettel, Hamilton only gets +3 points on Vettel, as opposed to +7 if he won and Vettel was second. Of course Hamilton-Rosberg-Vettel means +10 for Hamilton as opposed to +7 with Vettel in second, but with a dominant Merc, you could easily have Hamilton-Bottas-Vettel instead, so there's not much of a difference.

Similarly, if Ferrari was the dominant car and Vettel were to end up in first, having Hamilton finish in fourth behind Räikkönen and Rosberg would result in a -13 point deficit, as opposed to -10 if he were to end in third.

If the Ferrari and Merc were on the same level, then eventually it would boil down to driver ability to have one finish in front of the other, but when car performance is the deciding factor, it's obvious that having two competing drivers will harm both their prospects.

That said, if you swapped Bottas for Rosberg AND kept all of Vettel's mistakes, I'm confident that the drivers' championship would have the same owner, even if most certainly Hamilton might have had to wait a while longer to celebrate it.

[Nitrodaze]

Not sure if this has already been mentioned, but would anyone else agree that had Rosberg been at Mercedes this year, neither Lewis nor Nico would have won the championship? Nico was a stronger (and more combative) teammate than Valteri. And I believe that while Hamilton would have outscored Nico, the two of them would have taken enough points off of each that neither would outscore Vettel (even with all of his many errors).

Just a passing thought.

Quite true, it would have been something like the Alonso vs Hamilton pairing at Mclaren 2006. How Ferrari wished Bottas was much stronger this year.

[Nitrodaze]

It's a fair question, but I don't think so. Hamilton is leading by 64pts atm, which is way too big a margin to have made a difference to Vettel. Rosberg wouldn't just be taking points off Hamilton, but Vettel as well. For example Australia, Vettel won due to fortunate circumstances. But you wouldn't think Rosberg would crash in qualifying like Bottas did. SO in that scenario, even if Rosberg qualified behind Hamilton, he'd be getting the benefit of the freebie win instead of Vettel.

The damage to Hamilton would have happened in that period where the Mercedes was lagging behind the Ferrari. Rosberg may have taken enough points from Hamilton at that stage but not from Vettel in a faster Ferrari. I think, enough to cause the eventual gap to be very close or marginally ahead. At least for Vettel to be either slightly ahead or just behind Hamilton to force the fight to the last race.

[journeyman racer]

There has never been a period where MB were "lagging" behind the Ferrari.

The question was fair enough. When you look at it in depth, there's no way Vettel's winning this championship. Within the realms of being reasonable, the current margin is too big.

Hamilton's leading by 64pts. Even if Hamilton/Bottas swapped positions every time they scored a 1-2 (4 times), that's 28 points you can knock off Hamilton's score, so then he'd be leading by 36, which is a comfortable position. Then you could talk about the Vettel's errors costing him the title.

Alternatively, I've already posted that Australia was a race Rosberg would've won on the safe assumption he wouldn't have crashed in qualifying like Bottas did, so that 7pts you can knock off Vettel. Dare I say, a more confident, experienced Rosberg might've got past Vettel in Bahrain.

It's a question better asked about 2017. But having looked at the points, the more pertinent question is whether Rosberg could've gone back to back.

[Nitrodaze]

There has never been a period where MB were "lagging" behind the Ferrari.

The question was fair enough. When you look at it in depth, there's no way Vettel's winning this championship. Within the realms of being reasonable, the current margin is too big.

Hamilton's leading by 64pts. Even if Hamilton/Bottas swapped positions every time they scored a 1-2 (4 times), that's 28 points you can knock off Hamilton's score, so then he'd be leading by 36, which is a comfortable position. Then you could talk about the Vettel's errors costing him the title.

Alternatively, I've already posted that Australia was a race Rosberg would've won on the safe assumption he wouldn't have crashed in qualifying like Bottas did, so that 7pts you can knock off Vettel. Dare I say, a more confident, experienced Rosberg might've got past Vettel in Bahrain.

It's a question better asked about 2017. But having looked at the points, the more pertinent question is whether Rosberg could've gone back to back.

Sorry buddy, you completely miss my point.

[Bagwan]

Sorry buddy, you completely miss my point.

What was your point then ?

[Nitrodaze]

What was your point then ?

Wow, I fully expected you to get it, l give up

[Bagwan]

Wow, I fully expected you to get it, l give up

Sorry , I was reading a debate , and wanted to see another well-reasoned response to JMR's post .
You said he missed your point , so I wanted to understand your side of it better .