VERY early 2015 prediction thoughts! [Archive]

rjbetty

21st November 2014, 13:58

I know it's surely far too early but I wanted to have a quick look at how the form might sorta turn out for 2015!

1.MERCEDES
No change here, 2015 could be to 1989 what 2014 has been to 1988. Hopefully if Nico wins the title, he will be less desperate to do whatever it takes and it should go Hamilton's way from now on.

2.MCLAREN-HONDA
My early prediction for McLaren is a strong 2nd! Hard to imagine now but I feel it could be like 2007 compared to 2006. Peter Prodomou and Alonso should have a good effect. This is assuming Honda have got it right. Ron Dennis is happy it seems but I have no idea if he has an idea... I think McLaren may have lost out badly this year due to not having latest software etc from Mercedes, accounting for their gap. All this should see a fair improvement maybe. I actually think they could be a dark horse if the Honda is good, but maybe the team still needs too much work to do just yet.

3.FERRARI
Most likely to be 3rd maybe. Changes are afoot and I expect an improvement on the chassis side due to James Allison. Kimi shouldn't do so badly and Vettel also shouldn't be any worse. Big question mark over the PU since they made the engine guy a scapegoat. Who exactly is in charge of that now???

4.RED BULL-RENAULT
I've read rumours that Renault aren't able to make much improvement unless they use politics to get their way. With Adrian Newey going, can they close the gap that much? Regardless of Vettel's 2014, I don't think Kvyat can match either that or Ricciardo in 2015 in terms of points. But then we said the same thing about Ricciardo...

5.WILLIAMS-MERCEDES
A tough one. Williams have followed up a good season with a catastrophic one, but the reasons for 2013 being bad don't seem to apply this time as the staff who made 2014 good seem to be sticking around. Bottas can only improve as can Massa now he's settled in (or will he go down the slippery slope). The question mark though is money.

6.LOTUS-MERCEDES
The 6th team of a clear top 6. Mercedes is an instant benefit, a 2nd year of this regs should be easier, and Maldonado should surely improve on 2014. Should score much more points in 2015.

7.FORCE INDIA-MERCEDES
Oh dear. They really look like being in trouble soon... Unable to develop this year with serious money issues. I think it will finally catch up on them in 2015 and will start heading the way of Sauber. Expect them to drop back in one form or another.

8.TORO ROSSO-RENAULT
Pretty sure being Red Bull's Jr team shouldn't see them sink without a trace. Will be same as usual probably.

9.SAUBER-FERRARI
Oh dear. Well at least Sauber have improved lately but with Ericsson and Nasr they ain't going anywhere. Still stuck with Ferrari power. Surely can grab at least a point.

Others - Not sure there will be any. Yikes!

All in all, Mercedes should win again, as looking at the possible challengers, no-one seems in a position to close the gap enough, at least for 2015 anyway. Though there does seem to be interesting potential for changes beyond the top 2 however.

jens

21st November 2014, 14:26

rjbetty

21st November 2014, 14:40

Don't worry I plan to go into more detail next year I guess. Guess I can't wait for the pre-season to start, even though there's an exciting title fight this weekend!

jens

21st November 2014, 19:44

Don't worry I plan to go into more detail next year I guess. Guess I can't wait for the pre-season to start, even though there's an exciting title fight this weekend!

:p:

There are always various tricky factors in play before each season. One of them is Honda.

One thing from history tells me that usually a new engine manufacturer doesn't come in and wipe the floor with everyone. There are very few exceptions, but they are already a long way back in history. One of them Cosworth DFV in 1967, which beat everyone from the get-go. And Porsche TAG turbo-charged engine, which in the McLaren beat everyone in 1984. Those were debut stunners.

But other than that it takes time to build yourself up. Even Williams-BMW wasn't spectacular in 2000, even though BMW developed arguably the most powerful engine on the grid from 2001 onwards. In 2000 their engine was solid, but I'd say chassis was the stronger aspect of the package that year than the engine. In 1998-2000 Williams had a good chassis, let down by engine.

Also Honda is well-hyped, but the last time they had a significant impact on F1, was when Senna was in McLaren. Honda came back in 2000, and didn't show much bar an excellent season with BAR in 2004. And in the V8 era Honda was always underpowered to the extent that many people claimed Brawn GP won because they got the much better Mercedes engine.

However, whatever it was, now we are into a completely new era – the hybrid engines. Which is a completely different ballgame as we see. Basically success in this era depends on how much expertise each engine manufacturer has on hybrid technology – and it is not directly related to F1, but also their everyday business! I think therein lies also the Mercedes advantage. Fiat/Ferrari and Renault simply do not have enough depth in their team regarding the hybrid stuff. However, I believe manufacturers like VW/Audi or Toyota could do well in the new hybrid era.

To be honest, I am not sure about Honda's know-how in these types of engines. But if I had to make a guess, I'd say that any manufacturer in the world would have trouble against current Mercedes' performance in F1, were they to take on F1 project. They have made such a big impression. I personally expect Honda to be more in the Renault/Ferrari range or at best slightly ahead. But that's my guess.

About McLaren – I think it is a reasonable guess that as they were not a works team in 2014, they were suffering from lack of communication and engine integration. Already in winter before testing it was said that „works teams will have an advantage“, and in 2014 all three „A-teams“ have been well above their counterparts with the same power unit. But regardless of engine-chassis integration McLaren themselves have a lot to prove in chassis design and Honda in the engine department. Can they take the fight to Red Bull-Renault and Ferrari works packages? Maybe.

Mia 01

21st November 2014, 22:03

Lets talk about this season first, it´s plenty of time.

rjbetty

22nd November 2014, 06:42

Yeah I think you´re right :p

zako85

22nd November 2014, 13:59

It will be interesting to see who will be the best among Lotus, Williams, and Force India.

Koz

22nd November 2014, 14:13

McLaren will not have a miracle revival and will be where Ferrari are this year, but Alonso is Alonso.

Ferrari will have a much better car courtesy of Allison, they will fight RBR for second.

Williams and Mclaren for 4th.

TR > FI = Lotus > Sauber

pob

22nd November 2014, 22:20

1. Mercedes

continue their dominance with an even greater gap to the rest
2. Lotus/Enstone

rejuvenated under Mercedes engines and new design concept
3. Williams

similar speed to Enstone, but once again miss out on many points due to tactical mistakes
4. McLaren

start the season slowly, but rapidly improve through the year taking a surprise win in a wet Brazilian Grand Prix
5. Force India/Team Astana

Start the season strongly with a podium in Australia, but drop off to the midfield before money issues finally mean Hulkenburg is dropped in favour of Juncadella after Astana buy a controlling share in the team.
6. Red Bull

entering a period of decline they drop to the midfield, although the intrateam battle between Ricciardo, Kvyat and Verstappen in a 3rd car is a big talking point for the season. Ricciardo loses his smile after several acrimonious battles with Kvyat.
7. Ferrari

Vettel occasionally in the points but Raikkonen and a third car containing Marciello rarely trouble the scoreboard
8. Toro Rosso

Lynn regularly mixes it with the drivers on the senior team; Gasly disappoints
9. Sauber/Audi (Saudi?)

Audi buy into Sauber over the winter, but 2015 is a development year for them. 0 points again.
10. Marussia/Manor Racing/AJG

Make it to the grid in Australia, but after arguing with Bernie over prize money, their trucks are refused entry to the circuit at the Spanish Grand Prix. The team is then bought out by Grahame Chilton who renames the team and places his other son Tom in the 2nd seat alongside Max Chilton.
11. Forza Rossa

With a car that looks suspiciously very similar to the 2014 Caterham, Forza Rossa shock everyone in testing with amazing speed, but it's proven to be false in the opening round when they don't make the 107% rule. The team folds before the 2nd race.

kfzmeister

23rd November 2014, 05:37

I'm sure Mercedes will be the team to beat. Read some comments above about Ferrari/ Allison's package possibly 2nd? I think this is wishful thinking. I read an article a while back that suggested that the Ferrari could actually be slower next year.
I do like the McLaren race form lately and think that they could make a step in the right direction next year. Even though there have only been a few engine suppliers that were dominant in their first year, Honda has all the resources and know-how to follow suit.
I also think that RB will be at the front, as usual.
Williams should be strong, but their drivers will prevent them from challenging for the title.
Lotus could also make a step in the right direction with the Mercedes PU

Tazio

23rd November 2014, 06:21

[quo

23rd November 2014, 10:41

My prediction is that Honda will produce a top-notch engine.. can't see how they would fail to do so given that they've had an extra year to develop it and they know exactly what they are aiming for.

And the second part of that prediction is that Mercedes will suddenly change their stance on engine development rules.

I really hope someone is closer to Mercedes next year, it's not really been a classic season this one.

I also hope both Marussia and Caterham survive in some form. It would seem like a 'no-brainer' for anyone wanting to come in to F1 to buy one of these teams who already have established facilities and a car under development for next year.

jens

23rd November 2014, 16:34

Oh, so many thoughts already here.:p:

Read some comments above about Ferrari/ Allison's package possibly 2nd? I think this is wishful thinking. I read an article a while back that suggested that the Ferrari could actually be slower next year.

The exact point in my mind is not whether Ferrari is second fastest or not (may be a stretch), but they will be better than 2014. They are a legendary big-budgeted team, who has reached its low. Today, Alonso 9th and Räikkönen 10th? No, I don't think they'll get worse/slower than that. For everyone there is a low. Like for Ferrari themselves 1980 and 1992 were and they were better in subsequent seasons. You have a tough period in general, but one year, which is specifically dark among others. Especially after rule changes, because Ferrari was specifically average in 2009 as well.

jens

23rd November 2014, 16:38

My prediction is that Honda will produce a top-notch engine.. can't see how they would fail to do so given that they've had an extra year to develop it and they know exactly what they are aiming for.

Often those things are not so clear-cut. Reminds me when Toyota entered F1, they didn't enter immediately, but took a full extra year (2001) to specifically test the car without actually racing. Still they were average, when they entered in 2002.

In the end it will depend on the quality of the engine department. But I don't know how good it is. But just because the name is Honda, doesn't automatically mean anything. Ferrari and Renault are also big manufacturers with even bigger F1 tradition, but look at them now.

A FONDO

23rd November 2014, 16:52

The safest prediction now is that Ferrari will collect a bit under 150 points.

jens

23rd November 2014, 16:59

My safest prediction is that Mercedes will be WDC and WCC in 2015. I'd be pretty surprised if that didn't happen, though I have been surprised before too! Maybe some major politics and regulation fixes come in winter to "make F1 play on an even playing field.":p:

23rd November 2014, 21:29

When can we expect a decision on three car teams for next year? I suppose it's unlikely.

24th November 2014, 20:05

The McLaren-Honda test car will run in this weeks Abu-Dhabi test with Stoffel Vandoorne behind the wheel.

Rollo

24th November 2014, 22:52

The Red Bull-Renault-Mattel will test the flying car in January, with hover technology.

"Where we're going, we don't need roads. Red Bull really does give you wings."
- Daniel Ricciardo

It is 2015 :eek:

anfield5

25th November 2014, 02:20

Mercedes - Engine for next year is apparently much better than this year's. This should worry other teams. Chassis only has to be as good as this year's to ensure they have the complete package again, need to work out the reliability kinks that hit them from time to time this year. Hamilton will be hard to stop, he is a confidence driver, and he is not short on this at the moment. Nico is good enough to beat him though.
PREDICTION - drivers champions and constructors champions again

Red Bull Racing. Renault need to up their game and be close to or equal with Mercedes. RBR have always had a good car, but with Newey stepping aside, will the 2015 chassis be up to his high standards. Ricciardo has shown this year he is a future champion. Kyv is in many ways an unknown, he looks good for STR, much like Ricci did last year so?
PREDICTION - Race wins for Ricci and podiums for Kyv, but no title challenge

Williams - Great '14 season need to contunue to improve. Their car worked well at certain tracks, they need to make it work across the board like Mercedes did. Bottas is a special talent and should be winning races, Massa will have one final fling and be replaced by JEV at seasons end.
PREDICTION - Race win/s a possibility for Bo77as, Massa to be his usual reliable self.

Ferrari - Cant be much worse than thism season. Hopefully the engine is stronger and they have the power to compete. Much work needs to go into the chassis, but this will be James Allison's first real design effort, so this should be better. Losing Fred has weakened the driver line-up, but Vettel is very good esp if the car suits his style and he shoul be able to challenge for a win or two. Kimi may well not last the season if he is as poor as he was this year.
PREDICTION: Improvement will happen, but still off the pace

McLaren - If the Honda engine is as good as they are claiming McLaren will be the team that challenges Mercedes, if they can design a chassis that works. Honda money and technical input will demand this is the case. With Alonso they have the best driver on the grid and either JB or Mag will do fine alongside him. Possibly start a wee bit slowly, but they will finish the season strongly.
PREDICTION - second in the constructors cup with Alonso challenging for the title maybe.

Toleman - Cant be worse than this year, as that simply is impossible. Merc engine will be a factor, but if the chassis is a bad as this years thing even a Merc engine will not save them. Grosjean is a very good pilot and deserves to be near the front, unfortunately the other driver is a total meat-head.
PREDICTION - Challenging for top 5 places in some races.

Force India - expect much the same as this year, and pretty much every other year. Strong season start with a simply but effective design. Podium finishes a possibility, but lack of development will see them fade away as usual. Two good drivers, who given the right equipment can win races.\
PREDICTION - same as always

Toro Rosso - Same as usual from the team, good chassis, hopefully better engine and two young drivers trying to impress Christian Horner.
PREDICTION - some points finishes and top 10 starts.

Sauber - Will be better than '14. But with two new drivers, who knows. Ericsson looked lost at start of year, but did improve to show his real worth as the season progressed and is a good car can score points. Nasr looked the goods in the little league and in some testing, but who really knows?
PREDICTION - Better than '14, maybe on a par with 2012 and previous seasons. Some points, no podiums and hopefully a buyer will appear to secure one of my fav team's future.

Caterham/Manor(Marussia) - Hopefully one or both will be sold and will continue to race, but who knows?

journeyman racer

25th November 2014, 10:00

We'll be told about how much of a cheater Nico Rosberg is. There'll also be lots of speculation about how he'll cheat in upcoming races, like backing Hamilton up, so others can overtake him.

rjbetty

25th November 2014, 13:08

We'll be told about how much of a cheater Nico Rosberg is. There'll also be lots of speculation about how he'll cheat in upcoming races, like backing Hamilton up, so others can overtake him.

Don't worry there won't be accusations of cheating if no-one cheats. I've noticed all people who like Hamilton on this forum are able to give Rosberg credit where it's due, fair and square. Which you can't say about fans of every driver. Therefore I'm not sure I understand where your obsession is coming from...

But keep trying, I don't think many care tbh...

journeyman racer

25th November 2014, 13:17

The prediction is there. I don't think TBK can resist. edit: TBK won't resist!

I also considered a number of other outcomes (Hamilton back to back. Ricciardo 2nd. Bottas/Alonso with at least a win each. Vettel failing to get a podium. Jensen Button winning the BTCC), but what I stated earlier is the only one I'm most confident in actually occurring.

Rollo

26th November 2014, 12:08

Jensen Button winning the BTCC

How about the V8 Supercar Championship for 888.

http://media.speedcafe.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/button-v8.jpg

Would he be up for that if he got given a ride?

Malbec

26th November 2014, 12:09

To be honest, I am not sure about Honda's know-how in these types of engines. But if I had to make a guess, I'd say that any manufacturer in the world would have trouble against current Mercedes' performance in F1, were they to take on F1 project. They have made such a big impression. I personally expect Honda to be more in the Renault/Ferrari range or at best slightly ahead. But that's my guess.

If you're talking about overall corporate experience of hybrids then Honda has more experience than any of the manufacturers in F1, although with Ferrari and Renault that isn't saying much. IIRC Honda were the first to market a hybrid car although they failed to market it properly which is why everybody remembers the Prius and not the equivalent Honda. Their battery technology is also very advanced as they need to keep developing new technology to go with their fuel cell project where they are again market leaders along with Toyota. Having said that I am not sure how much technology can be shared between 'civilian' hybrids and F1 ERS systems.

The one difference I guess between Honda and Renault in particular is that Honda developed its own complete KERS system in house for 2009 while Renault never did, and that lack of experience was a major problem for the French company when it came to developing its current powerplant.

What we simply do not know is how long Honda have been developing their engine for and what resources they have devoted to it. Their R/D arm is very secretive and often Honda's board are not aware of exactly what the R/D section is up to. They often develop engines for new FIA regulations simply to keep their understanding of modern racing technology up to date with no intention of actually racing them (which is how the WTCC engines were developed) and we do know that Honda developed exhaust blown diffusers while they were out of F1 simply to understand the concept. The F1 engine project might have a small group of engineers (and that is what Arai has been suggesting) or it might be a full blown huge project like the 2009 Honda project was. They might have been developing the engine for as long as Mercedes or for only 1-2 years once the McLaren deal was signed.

What we do know is that Mercedes' engine superiority is no accident, they devoted more resources over a longer period than any of the other engine manufacturers to the 2014 engine and Honda along with the others have a long way to catch up and this will require intensive investment.

IMO the Honda engine will probably be better than the Renault and the Ferrari for several reasons. Firstly Renault and Ferrari engines started from a lower baseline of performance in 2014, but also because IMO Honda will be throwing much more resources into their engine than Renault in particular and probably Ferrari too. I simply haven't seen any signs that Renault have expanded their R/D team much since it was massively downsized with the engine freeze all those years ago (though conversely that means I have been hugely impressed with how much their engine has improved over the course of the season).

Honda's traditional weakness is politics though, their V8 was weak because they took the engine freeze rules at face value. The engine was reliable so they didn't develop it while Mercedes and Ferrari continued to improve their engines using the reliability clause to improve performance. They have lost out in other formulae and on two wheels too for failing to take advantage of political circumstances. I would hope that McLaren have enough clout with Tokyo to guide them through any engine politics to their advantage but I am not very confident that that will be the case.

That said I expect all four engines to be closer in performance next season as relatively easily rectified problems have been resolved and Mercedes will find further improvement more difficult than the other makers. Actually even at this stage at the end of the 2014 season I suspect that the gap between the Renault and Mercedes engines is not as big as some people like Horner would have us believe, the Renault has improved so much that the drivers say they notice a big difference in performance every time they swap an old engine for a new one.

journeyman racer

26th November 2014, 13:20

How about the V8 Supercar Championship for 888.

Would he be up for that if he got given a ride?

1) Being a Pom, he should go for the BTCC first. Regardless of it's standard relative to other series, it would a good series to win, and a nice bonus to Button's trophy cabinet.

2) Marcos Ambrose is back! Along with Jamie Whincup, he'll be doing well to finish 3rd.

3) I wouldn't dismiss Bathurst 1000 or 12 hour win sometime in the future.

jens

27th November 2014, 12:50

Thanks, Malbec. Great insight. I'll take this into consideration.:)

As for the question - how much crossover is there between "civilian hybrid cars" and F1 technology, is a difficult question. However, looking at 2014 performance trends I am highly suspicious there is at least some. And if we take this into consideration, it doesn't come as a surprise Mercedes is the best out of the three.

Let's look at Ferrari, the most striking example. We may discuss about their engine budget, but engine was never a problem for them. Even if they didn't have the best engine, engines used to have plenty of horsepower and engine itself wasn't really a weakness in the package. Be it the V12, V10, V8.

However, now we are suddenly into a new "hybrid" era and Ferrari's engines are nowhere. They are the weakest link of the package. This makes me think that whatever quality Ferrari used to have in the engine department, doesn't exist now. They lack some specialists in the hybrid stuff. And for whatever reason have failed to hire them. If the car company in general has specialists on hybrid technology, I think carrying this competence over to F1 would be easier - they can be sent to participate on F1 project as well.

However, point taken, that based on 'hybrid expertise' in the company Honda is likely to be better than either Renault or Ferrari. We will see in 2015 whether this hypothesis works in practice.

Malbec

27th November 2014, 18:37

Ferrari do have a hybrid roadcar project, for years now they have been trying to move away from the German trend of a bigger heavier car being powered by an even more powerful engine with ever model cycle and have been developing hybrid technology (or more likely buying it in). Also the manufacturer itself doesn't have to have considerable expertise in this field as long as partners do, and Magnetti Marelli is good enough in this area for Honda to use them as a partner as well, I think the knowledge base is there.

With Ferrari I think Marmorini's comments are probably accurate. He was asked to ensure the powerplant was compact and aerodynamics friendly as possible which also means a less powerful turbo and ERS system to reduce cooling needs. He was told that the chassis and aero guys would make up for the lack of power with superior aero until the car hit the track, the aero was poor and they turned round and shifted the blame onto his department for developing a compact but less powerful unit as he had been asked too. This isn't in itself a stupid pathway to go down, the Cosworth DFV was rarely the most powerful unit but its strengths came from its rigidity so it could be used as a fully stressed member, and the fact that its V-configuration was useful in minimising chassis cross-sectional area and maximising air flow around the bottom of the car, useful with ground effects cars.

jens

27th November 2014, 22:05

Malbec

29th November 2014, 15:20

Well yeah. It it always a tough call who is how much "at fault". But I do not want to take all responsibility away from engine department. Though it also means it is automatically the responsibility of Ferrari leadership, who overestimated the capabilities of their engine department.

Whatever compromise they decided to make with the car package, it must have become a surprise to them that Mercedes could be so-so far ahead of them. Perhaps they were prepared for a small handicap, but not a big one. Ferrari may have been committed to aerodynamics, but I suspect Dom/LDM were not critical enough about engine department, believing they would "do a solid job" as usual, hence were living off past glories so-to-speak. And engine department was not upgraded to sufficient standard, which most likely should have included more expertise in hybrid technology.

While I am certainly no Ferrari fan I think you're being very harsh on them.

We were not to know that Mercedes had invested $100s of millions extra into their F1 project overall and into their engines in particular, investment that dwarfed every other team over the past two seasons including Ferrari and RBR, a level of investment not seen since Honda and the 2009 car.

None of the engine makers had a target to aim for with this all-new formula and Renault in particular had to cope with a cut down R/D team that the parent car company had no real interest in expanding. Ferrari too could not expand their engine team purely for the new hybrid regulations and it is unreasonable IMO for people to expect large companies to expand and contract their R/D teams purely based on F1 regulation changes. This is not how multinationals (and Ferrari is one as it is part of FIAT) work, they set aside a particular budget years in advance and it is difficult to change that purely because the FIA thinks new engines would be great two years down the line. Mercedes were just lucky that their board had set aside a particularly large budget aside for F1 a year or two after acquiring Brawn.

I think Mercedes did a great job with the engine but one that was completely proportional to their budget and the length of time spent on it. Renault and Ferrari also produced engines that were completely proportional to their budget, resources and time spent on theirs. I don't think any of them over or underperformed at all.

rjbetty

7th December 2014, 16:59

Well since a few people enjoyed it last year, I am going to run a 2015 F1 season on Grand Prix 2 again!!

I had hoped to use Grand Prix 3 this time, but can't get it to work on Windows 7 (stupid 64bit thing)

Well here goes! How will it turn out?

1.AUSTRALIA
Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg
3.Magnussen
4.Bottas
5.Ricciardo
6.Vettel
7.Sainz Jr
8.Verstappen
9.Kvyat
10.Massa
11.Raikkonen
12.Hulkenberg
13.Grosjean
14.Alonso
15.Maldonado
16.Perez
17.Nasr
18.Ericsson

GO! Briliant start by Vettel who vaults from 6th, but too much as he tags Rosberg, who goes off! Massa has also had a cracker from 10th to 4th. Rosberg rejoins 10th, then is overtaken by Perez.

Hamilton leads from Vettel, Bottas, Massa and Ricciardo. Kvyat and Raikkonen are down in 15th and 16th after bad starts.

Rosberg breezes outside Carlos Sainz Jr down to turn 3, only for the rookie to outbrake him and claim the place back! Rosberg tries again into turn 6, getting it wrong and clattering into him! Both go off and lose positions. Perez again drives past Rosberg who is now 11th.

Great racing between Perez, Maldonado and Raikkonen who is maiking up ground. Vettel is losing positions on a strategy that is slow to begin with. He half spins out of the penultimate corner, Rosberg bumps him then is overtaken by Perez again. Rosberg sweeps back past. A disastrous race for Nico so far.

Vettel is dicing with Hulkenberg and Kvyat for 9th after Rosberg gets past them. Nico is fastest on track on track but is 20sec down in 7th. Meanwhile, Alonso has been making up ground and is now running 6th, fastest on track behind the Mercedes cars.

Raikkonen has spun as Felipe Nasr retires. Kimi is all the way at the back. Alonso has an incident dropping 10sec. Perez and Maldonado are out.

Things look grim for Ferrari with Vettel 11th and Raikkonen a long way down. Vettel is on a strategy that benefits him later and is keeping in touch.

When the final stops shake out, the order is Hamilton, Bottas, Rosberg, Magnussen, Alonso and Ricciardo.

Rosberg is hunting down Bottas while Alonso gains on his team mate. Suddenly, with 2 laps to go after this one, Alonso is less than a second behind, slipstreaming Magnussen out of turns 11 and 12 down to turn 13 when suddenly "TRANSMISSION FAILURE"! He is out after a great drive.

Rosberg just fails to take 2nd, while Lewis wins.

RESULT
1.Hamilton
2.Bottas
3.Rosberg
4.Magnussen
5.Ricciardo
6.Kvyat
7.Vettel
8.Massa
9.Verstappen
10.Hulkenberg
11.Sainz Jr
12.Raikkonen
13.Grosjean
DNF.Alonso - 3 laps down

rjbetty

7th December 2014, 23:44

Since you asked for it, here's round 2 - Malaysia. :)

2.MALAYSIA
Brilliant qualifying. Though Mercedes are well over a second clear, Hamilton eventually pips Rosberg by just 0.045sec.

The next 5 are covered by less than a tenth with Vettel on the back of this in 7th. Suddenly at the death Vettel improves by 0.132sec to grab 3rd! 3rd to 7th are still covered by less than 0.1sec! Ericsson is an amazing 10th as others fail to set good times.

Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.045
3.Vettel +1.346
4.Bottas
5.Alonso
6.Magnussen
7.Ricciardo
8.Massa
9.Sainz Jr
10.Ericsson
11.Verstappen
12.Grosjean
13.Perez
14.Raikkonen
15.Hulkenberg
16.Maldonado
17.Kvyat
18.Nasr

At the start, Massa has another corker, challenging for 3rd from 8th on the grid. But Marcus Ericsson is up to 6th ahead of Magnussen and Rosberg!

Hamilton leads from Bottas, Vettel and Massa. This looks familiar, see last race.

Ericsson races hard but on lap 2 cruelly retires from 8th. Right behind this thru turns 5 and 6 down to 7, many cars are all over each other. Massa goes off at turn 7, rejoining in front of that pack and causing chaos as Rosberg takes advantage to move up to a clear 5th.

After lap 3, the top 10 are Hamilton, Bottas, Vettel, Alonso, Rosberg, Magnussen. Ricciardo, Grosjean, Massa and Raikkonen.

Rosberg catches Hamilton and by lap 20 is 3sec behind. Grosjean, Verstappen and the Saubers are the retirements.

Hamilton loses over 30sec dropping to 2nd.

With a few laps left, Rosberg himself loses 20sec but keeps the lead. Bottas and Vettel are having a big fight for 4th with Ricciardo 4sec behind. Alonso takes a clear and deserved 3rd.

RESULT
1.Rosberg
2.Hamilton +6sec
3.Alonso
4.Bottas
5.Vettel
6.Ricciardo
7.Magnussen
8.Kvyat
9.Perez
10.Massa
11.Sainz Jr
12.Raikkonen
13.Maldonado
14.Hulkenberg

btw, just so there's no confusion over the driver line up

MERCEDES - Hamilton, Rosberg
RED BULL - Ricciardo, Kvyat
WILLIAMS - Bottas, Massa
FERRARI - Raikkonen, Vettel
MCLAREN - Alonso, Magnussen
FORCE INDIA - Hulkenberg, Perez
TORO ROSSO - Verstappen, Sainz Jr
LOTUS - Grosjean, Maldonado
SAUBER - Ericsson, Nasr

Mifune

15th December 2014, 16:18

1) Being a Pom, he should go for the BTCC first. Regardless of it's standard relative to other series, it would a good series to win, and a nice bonus to Button's trophy cabinet.

2) Marcos Ambrose is back! Along with Jamie Whincup, he'll be doing well to finish 3rd.

3) I wouldn't dismiss Bathurst 1000 or 12 hour win sometime in the future.

Or he could go to an Australian high school and unlearn how to speak English. Great sig by the way, with a sig like that a man wouldn't need to post anything at all.

Roamy

18th December 2014, 08:16

henners88

18th December 2014, 10:56

well they gave mercedes the championship by freezing engine development - so it depends on who they favor in 2015 - pretty sad in F1 at the moment. they better get it together or someone will punt them. v-10s are the answer!!
Yeah but they all had the same amount of time and chance to build an engine before the freeze came into effect. If they had lifted the engine freeze to allow Renault and Ferrari to continue further development, does that mean Mercedes would also be allowed to develop further?

rjbetty

19th December 2014, 02:24

From Mark Hughes column on Sky, he reckons Renault may gain 70bhp next year, putting them pretty much on par with this year´s Mercedes. However, Mercedes are rumoured to have 60bhp in the works.

So only a slight close of the gap, but a close nevertheless, if this comes true.

I do however, wonder how Ferrari are going to get on, having sacked their engine chief, showing signs of the imo foolish dismissal of Aldo Costa, who produced very decent cars from 2005-2010 apart from that one aberration in '09. He may not be the very best, but Costa is now at Mercedes while Ferrari have gone further down each year... I can see Ferrari falling behind with the engine, but that doesn't mean they will.

I think we need to remember it's not really an engine freeze but a development restriction. So the others are allowed to catch up, but only by 48% each year. Is that right?

P.S. I'm gonna have to start my Grand Prix 2 season again, since SOME teams decided to choose another driver from the one I expected, mentioning no names. I have already done some and will post soon, as I assume some of you will be interested to know... :)

rjbetty

19th December 2014, 02:49

Here we go then!

1.AUSTRALIA
Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.146
3.Ricciardo +0.562
4.Alonso +0.857
5.Bottas +0.896
6.Raikkonen +1.090
7.Button +1.199
8.Vettel +1.344
9.Kvyat +1.418
10.Massa +1.455
11.Verstappen +1.535
12.Grosjean +1.608
13.Hulkenberg +1.689
14.Sainz Jr +1.982
15.Perez +2.722
16.Maldonado +3.363
17.Nasr +3.478
18.Ericsson +3.624

GO! Rosberg has a shocker, dropping to 7th, while Alonso and Bottas grab 2nd and 3rd. Drama at the back as Felipe Nasr,
Maldonado and the 2 Force Indias are out at turn 1!

Ricciardo moves up to 2nd as Alonso and Bottas fight behind, with Button 5th. Verstappen retires. Suddenly, huge surprise on lap 5 as Rosberg amazingly crashes out at turn 13! Could this set the title already?

Alonso loses 20sec with a rare mistake, dropping to 11th, at the back of a large train of close cars. Later on Button loses a lot of time too, dropping to 11th, well off the pack. At this point, Ericsson is the final runner in 12th.

By the halfway stage, Raikkonen and Kvyat battle for 4th with Vettel and the others a few seconds behind. Bottas chases Alonso, and on lap 48 they bang wheels thru turns 11 and 12 before Bottas gets him. 2 laps later and Kvyat is out from a safe 5th. Nothing changes till the end thereafter.

Button gets 2nd fastest lap while Raikkonen beats Vettel, though by a few seconds.

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Ricciardo +47
3.Bottas +1:00
4.Alonso +1:03
5.Raikkonen -1lap
6.Vettel -1lap
7.Massa -1lap
8.Grosjean -1lap
9.Sainz Jr -1lap
10.Button -1lap
11.Ericsson -2laps

Fastest Lap: Hamilton

rjbetty

19th December 2014, 02:54

2.MALAYSIA
Qualifying: Alonso grabs 3rd from 13th at the death while Kvyat outqualifies Ricciardo. Carlos Sainz Jr is a brilliant 6th.

1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.212
3.Alonso +0.615
4.Button +1.060
5.Vettel +1.186
6.Sainz Jr +1.428
7.Kvyat +1.436
8.Ricciardo +1.719
9.Bottas +2.010
10.Maldonado +2.127
11.Verstappen +2.165
12.Massa +2.298
13.Raikkonen +2.958
14.Hulkenberg +3.659
15.Perez +3.971
16.Grosjean +4.224
17.Ericsson +4.555
18.Nasr +5.322

GO! Mercedes retain the lead but Ricciardo is up to 4th between the McLarens. Massa moves too close to Vettel and his front lifts off the ground. Vettel goes wide but Massa tags poor Carlos Sainz Jr who drops right to the back through no fault of his own. Bottas is half spun by Kvyat too. Perez is up to a great 6th from 15th.

Ferraris are 13th and 15th after a while...

Alonso is brilliantly hanging on to the 2 Mercedes, as Hamilton edges away from Rosberg, building a lead of 5sec after 20 laps. Button is around 10sec behind Alonso and keeps that sort of gap.

Something happens to Hamilton as with 10 laps left he is 15sec behind Rosberg, as the two lap equally. No more changes to the order though Vettel was only 0.6sec behind Maldonado at the end. Button and Ricciardo fight throughout the race while Alonso takes a deserved podium.

Result
1.Rosberg
2.Hamilton +14
3.Alonso +39
4.Button +56
5.Ricciardo +57
6.Kvyat +1:36
7.Maldonado -1lap
8.Vettel -1lap
9.Grosjean -1lap
10.Bottas -1lap
11.Sainz Jr -1lap
12.Raikkonen -1lap
13.Massa -1lap
14.Hulkenberg -1lap
15.Perez -1lap
16.Nasr -2laps

Fastest Lap: Hamilton

The Championship:
So early on, here are the standings:
1.Hamilton - 43pts
2.Ricciardo - 28pts
3.Alonso - 27pts
4.Rosberg - 25pts
5.Bottas - 16pts
6.Button - 13pts
7.Vettel - 12pts
8.Raikkonen - 10pts
9.Kvyat - 8pts
10.Massa - 6pts
11.Maldonado - 6pts
12.Grosjean - 6pts
13.Sainz Jr - 2pts

1.Mercedes - 68pts
2.McLaren - 40pts
3.Red Bull - 36pts
4.Williams -22pts
5.Ferrri - 22pts
6.Lotus - 12pts
7.Toro Rosso - 2pts
8.Sauber - best finish 11th
9.Force India - best finish 14th

rjbetty

19th December 2014, 03:06

3.BAHRAIN
Grid
1.Rosberg
2.Button +0.458
3.Hamilton +0.496
4.Alonso +0.739
5.Bottas +0.854
6.Massa +0.896
7.Kvyat +1.052
8.Maldonado +1.404
9.Grosjean +1.600
10.Ricciardo +1.713
11.Raikkonen +1.877
12.Perez +1.984
13.Vettel +2.259
14.Verstappen +2.425
15.Hulkenberg +2.618
16.Sainz Jr +2.737
17.Ericsson +2.897
18.Nasr +4.150

It's a front row for Button, as Hamilton doesn't get a great lap. Rosberg always looked a little quicker anyway.

Lights out! Alonso gets up to 2nd with Perez 8th, while Button drops to 4th and Ricciardo to 13th.

Hamilton passes Alonso and edges ever closer to Rosberg, having been just over 1sec behind. On lap 8 he is through into the last corner, only for Rosberg to slipstream him back down the main straight! Red Bulls and Ferraris run only 10th-13th as Perez retires.

And on lap 12 Alonso is off from 3rd, losing 1:20sec as Nasr pits with electrical problems. This puts Alonso 16th a lap down.

Massa crashes out while Ricciardo retires on lap 32.

Hamilton is shadowing Rosberg all way, chipping into his small lead, but backmarkers keep causing it to open out a little again. Finally around lap 40 Lewis looks like lining up a move, only for Rosberg to go flying off track (as at Melbourne!) This time he was very lucky not to retire as he smacked the wall hard, side on. He got out behind Bottas. It looks like the race is settled now... Hulkenberg pits with electrical problems.

Maldonado slightly spoils his good race by spinning from 5th, dropping 2 places. Alonso was fastest man on track towards the end of the race, but he was too far behind.

Rosberg got fastest lap from Hamilton by 0.038sec. Very close stuff.

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +35
3.Bottas +1:06
4.Button +1:11
5.Grosjean +1:28
6.Kvyat +1:31
7.Maldonado -1lap
8.Alonso -1lap
9.Vettel -1lap
10.Raikkonen -1lap
11.Hulkenberg -1lap
12.Sainz Jr -1lap
13.Verstappen -1lap
14.Nasr -3laps

Fastest Lap: Rosberg

4.CHINA
Grid
1.Ricciardo
2.Hamilton
3.Button
4.Alonso
5.Kvyat
6.Massa
7.Raikkonen
8.Vettel
9.Bottas
10.Verstappen
11.Perez
12.Grosjean
13.Maldonado
14.Hulkenberg
15.Rosberg
16.Sainz Jr
17.Nasr
18.Ericsson

Look where Rosberg is!

Verstappen gets up to 6th, but Massa bumps him out of the way on lap 1. Top 5 stay the same but Lewis gets past Ricciardo. Alonso also gets Button while Massa gets Kvyat.

By lap 10, something has happened to Rosberg as he is 17th over 40sec down. Is his season going down the pan so quickly?

Later on, Hamilton also has to make an extra stop with problems, dropping behind Ricciardo. In the end he can't make up enough time so Ricciardo wins! A welcome return to the podium for Jenson Button. Vettel finishes just 2sec behind Raikkonen, still adjusting to his new team.

1.Ricciardo
2.Hamilton +5
3.Button +19
4.Rosberg +31
5.Alonso +49
6.Massa +57
7.Kvyat +1:14
8.Raikkonen +1:27
9.Vettel +1:29
10.Bottas +1:39
11.Verstappen -1lap
12.Grosjean -1lap
13.Perez -1lap
14.Maldonado -1lap
15.Nasr -1lap

Fastest Lap: Hamilton

CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND UP
So after the first 4 flyaway rounds, it seems to be going Lewis' way, while the top 6 teams seem to be exerting a monopoly. I have listed each drivers result from the first 4 races as a summary beside their total points.

1.Hamilton 1,2,1,2 - 86pts
2.Rosberg R,1,2,4 - 55pts
3.Ricciardo 2,5,R,1 - 53pts
4.Alonso 4,3,8,5 - 41pts
5.Button 10,4,4,3 - 40pts
6.Bottas 3,10,3,10 - 32pts
7.Kvyat R,6,6,7 - 22pts
8.Grosjean 8,9,5,12 - 16pts
9.Vettel 6,8,9,9 - 16pts
10.Raikkonen 5,12,10,8 - 15pts
11.Massa 7,13,R,6 - 14pts
12.Maldonado R,7,7,14 - 12pts
13.Sainz 9,11,12,R - 2pts

1.Mercedes - 141pts
2.McLaren - 81pts
3.Red Bull - 75pts
4.Williams - 46pts
5.Ferrari - 31pts
6.Lotus - 28pts
7.Toro Rosso - 2pts
8.Force India
9.Sauber

rjbetty

19th December 2014, 16:39

5.SPAIN
Qualifying - Kvyat was lightning quick and could have grabbed 2nd. Alonso didn't string a lap together while Sainz Jr impressed.

Grid
1.Rosberg
2.Hamilton +0.126
3.Kvyat +0.369
4.Vettel +0.445
5.Button +0.486
6.Raikkonen +0.962
7.Ricciardo +0.973
8.Alonso +1.048
9.Sainz Jr +1.333
10.Maldonado +1.489
11.Massa +1.685
12.Bottas +2.003
13.Verstappen +2.130
14.Hulkenberg +2.252
15.Grosjean +2.325
16.Nasr +3.364
17.Perez +3.843
18.Ericsson +4.076

Lights out! Jenson Button gets the most fantastic start ever but unfortunately gets boxed in and loses ons of momentum. Williams' fly from 11th and 12th to 6th and 7th, while Hamilton blasts past Rosberg into turn 3. The Ferraris are running a great 3rd and 4th!

Early on, McLaren disappoint by running only 9th and 11th, with Button 11th!

Most sensationally, Raikkonen is holding onto Rosberg into lap 2, and not only that, going faster and he moves past into turn 1, proceeding to drive away from Nico!!

In Grand Prix 2, there has to be old fashioned refuelling. Some drivers are given heavy or light fuel loads and strategies at random. But we can think of this as running the soft and hard tyre in modern speak.

In this case, Rosberg, Kvyat, Vettel, Sainz Jr, Bottas and Hulkenberg are lumbered with the harder tyre which usually causes a slower race overall. We can watch with interest as they fall down the order and other names rise up. The 'Harder Tyre' deficiency has more of an effect at Barcelona than any other track AFAIK.

By lap 10, Grosjean has retired and the McLarens are having a great fight for 6th and 7th. Button wins it and overtakes Alonso.

By lap 13, Hamilton leads by only 7.3 sec from, incredibly, Raikkonen, who is a CLEAR 2nd. Ricciardo, Rosberg and Massa are 14,15 and 16sec behind respectively. Bottas is only 14th behind even Felipe Nasr's Sauber.

Lap 17 and the first pit stop is made by Alonso from 6th, who just demoted Rosberg to as low as 7th. He exits 13th. Raikkonen goes from 2nd to 9th, Button 3rd to 9th and Massa the same.

Raikkonen shows the difference of new tyres by lapping up to 3sec faster than Vettel! O.O

After the final stops, Ricciardo runs 3rd as Alonso retires, but is overtaken by Button and Kvyat. Button tries to chase Rosberg but doesn't quite manage. Kimi eventually ran 6th, but heartbreak 2 laps from the end as he retires, having starred in this race! Ferraris take 3rd and 4th fastest laps, Vettel ahead.

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +38
3.Button +44
4.Kvyat +57
5.Ricciardo +1:03
6.Vettel +1:15
7.Maldonado -1lap
8.Sainz Jr -1lap
9.Bottas -1lsp
10.Verstappen -1lap
11.Hulkenberg -1lap
DNF.Raikkonen -2laps
13.Nasr -2laps
14.Perez -2laps

Fastest Lap: Hamilton

Mia 01

19th December 2014, 20:43

No suprise here, Levis wins.

jens

20th December 2014, 11:39

rjbetty

21st December 2014, 03:51

No suprise here, Levis wins.

I do like Lewis and enjoy him winning more than Nico, but there is no intentional bias here as that would render this demonstration useless. I have tried to make it as realistic as possible - realistic retirements, incidents i.e. not much! The hardest thing is to guess the performance of the teams.

The performance figures I gave for Lewis and Nico are

Qual
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.02

Race
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.07

Though I wish I had made qualifying equal now. My assumption is I still feel really Lewis is really slightly quicker than Nico, but in 2014 as in 2013 Rosberg ended the season genuinely strongly, beating Lewis fair and square imo. I am expecting Lewis to not have so many quali problems compared to Nico in 2015, plus a little more confidence from the title win. It could go the other way too, but I'm guessing this way might be more likely.

This is just the way the game turned out. I have not tried to sway or bend anything. You should know I ran 2 and a half quick test seasons before this one. In the first one, Lewis kept winning while it all went wrong for Nico. In the 2nd, Nico won the title by 100pts, then in the 3rd it was Lewis with a big margin again.

We (well you lot) also don't know how the rest of the season will turn out... (psst - Italy's a corker)

rjbetty

21st December 2014, 03:56

So I see rjbetty that Button gives a pretty good run for Alonso's money in this game. A bit like Ricciardo surprised Vettel in your GP2 adventure a year ago.:p:

I personally think Force India will definitely be better, at least score minor points (8th, 9th, 10th) even if not anything more.

But reminds me I should soon kickstart my own season prediction campaign as well. Just wondering if we are really going to have a season with 18 cars?! The mind boggles, it still feels hard to believe...

Or Ferrari signed up Vergne just in case there will be third cars on the grid, and Vergne would be a perfect addition to the line-up?

I know, I'm a little pessimistic for 20 cars. I have done Caterham, sticking in Will Stevens, and Gutierrez and his cash fitting in the other seat, but haven't included them in the results. They are just part of the other backmarkers here, though I could be wrong and they will make the season.

Sadly I think if there's 18 cars it will be allowed to stand and no 3rd cars will be added...

Now I think about it, maybe Force India will still be more competitive. So many times I have predicted not too much. 2011. 2013 especially, and even this year too, and yet they continue to be strong. [*SPOILER* They are just having a slightly bad run at the moment]

rjbetty

21st December 2014, 04:30

Well I'm glad everyone's enjoying the fun, even if Taz has nothing to say. :p

Here then is the Monaco Grand Prix. Unfortunately I was extremely tired and fell asleep so can't remember that much of what happened. *trying to recall as posting this*

6.MONACO
Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Kvyat +0.307
3.Button +0.787
4.Rosberg +0.872
5.Ricciardo +0.965
6.Vettel +1.011
7.Grosjean +1.098
8.Alonso +1.444
9.Bottas +1.543
10.Verstappen +1.673
11.Raikkonen +1.889
12.Massa +2.474
13.Maldonado +2.551
14.Sainz Jr +2.592
15.Hulkenberg +3.701
16.Ericsson +3.824
17.Perez +3.839
18.Nasr +5.061

Oh yeah that's right: Kvyat takes the lead, then continues to run with the Mercedes throughout the first half the race even when overtaken. Rosberg eventually retires, he may have gotten into the lead and built up a gap with the help of traffic iirc.

Force India are having a better run as Hulkenberg gamely hangs onto 7th against faster cars. He is holding up a huge train including the Ferraris, Maldonado and the Toro Rossos.

At the end, the is surprise as many drivers must pit in the final few laps. This drops Kvyat and Ricciardo out of 2nd and 3rd, promoting Bottas and Grosjean to surprise podiums. Maldonado was able to climb up from 11th to 7th by staying out.

1.Hamilton
2.Bottas +1:26
3.Grosjean +1:27
4.Kvyat -1lap
5.Ricciardo -1lap
6.Alonso -1lap
7.Maldonado
8.Verstappen -2laps
9.Massa
10.Raikkonen
11.Hulkenberg
12.Ericsson -3laps

Fastest Lap: Hamilton

I do have to say reliability figures are set for each team, not the driver. So Rosberg is really suffering a rough time of it at the moment. But tune in to the next episode, Canada!

Speaking of which, this is a double bill post, so here's Canada!

7.CANADA
A lovely mixed up grid here:
1.Rosberg
2.Hamilton +0.410
3.Grosjean +0.738
4.Button +0.875
5.Bottas +0.952
6.Massa +0.997
7.Vettel +1.165
8.Raikkonen +1.278
9.Hulkenberg +1.298
10.Perez +1.319
11.Verstappen +1.491
12.Kvyat +1.537
13.Maldonado +1.582
14.Sainz Jr +1.703
15.Alonso +1.995
16.Nasr +2.569
17.Ericsson +3.367
18.Ricciardo +3.456

Again sadly, I didn't note much of this race. Shame cos it was pretty good.

Rosberg, incredibly, is the first retirement! Sometimes when it rains, it pours in Grand Prix 2.

Force India, who have had a rotten season so far, get some respite as Perez and Hulkenberg run 5th and 6th during the second half of the race. It is very tough then when Perez cruelly loses out with a retirement. Alonso and Ricciardo also retire.

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Bottas
3.Grosjean
4.Button
5.Massa
6.Hulkenberg
7.Vettel
8.Verstappen
9.Raikkonen
10.Sainz Jr
11.Maldonado
12.Kvyat
13.Nasr
14.Ericsson

rjbetty

21st December 2014, 17:10

8.AUSTRIA
Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.032
3.Bottas +0.232
4.Alonso +0.438
5.Ricciardo +0.674
6.Kvyat +0.718
7.Massa +0.733
8.Button +0.771
9.Raikkonen +1.043
10.Grosjean +1.120
11.Hulkenberg +1.127
12.Vettel +1.173
13.Sainz Jr +1.178
14.Verstappen +1.247
15.Maldonado +1.332
16.Perez +1.822
17.Nasr +2.622
18.Ericsson +2.627

Bottas takes the lead while Massa challenges Rosberg for 3rd. And early on, Rosberg is out with Engine Failure!! Yet again. It's surely all over now for the championship. Incredible. Button and Verstappen soon join him, then later on Grosjean. The final retirement is in the last third of the race, Daniil Kvyat from 6th place.

Alonso grabs his and McLaren's best result of the season with 2nd. Nico Hulkenberg grabs another good points finish after Force India scoring no points for the first 6 races.

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Alonso +42
3.Bottas +49
4.Ricciardo +1:09
5.Massa -1lap
6.Raikkonen -1lap
7.Hulkenberg -1lap
8.Sainz Jr -1lap
9.Vettel -1lap
10.Maldonado -1lap
11.Perez -2laps
12.Nasr -2laps
13.Ericsson -3laps

Fastest Lap: Rosberg - 0.236

So that is that, 8 races down of only 16 in Grand Prix 2, and this is how the standings look now:

Drivers
1.Hamilton - 1,2,1,2,1,1,1,1 = 186pts
2.Ricciardo - 2,5,R,1,5,5,R,4 = 85pts
3.Bottas - 3,10,3,10,9,2,2,3 = 85pts
4.Rosberg - R,1,2,4,2,R,R,R = 73pts
5.Alonso - 4,3,8,5,R,6,R,2 = 67pts
6.Button - 10,4,4,3,3,R,4,R = 67pts
7.Grosjean - 8,9,5,12,R,3,3,R = 46pts
8.Kvyat - R,6,6,7,4,4,12 = 46pts
9.Massa - 7,13,R,6,R,9,5,5 = 36pts
10.Vettel - 6,8,9,9,6,R,7,9 = 32pts
11.Raikkonen - 5,12,10,8,12,10,9,6 = 26pts
12.Maldonado - R,7,7,14,7,7,11,10 = 25pts
13.Hulkenberg - R,14,11,R,11,11,6,7 = 14pts
14.Sainz Jr - 9,11,12,R,8,R,10,8 = 11pts
15.Verstappen - R,R,13,11,10,8,8,R = 9pts
16.Perez - R,15,R,13,14,R,R,11
17.Ericsson - 11,R,R,R,R,12,14,13
18.Nasr - R,16,14,15,13,R,13,12

Constructors
1.Mercedes - 259pts
2.McLaren - 134pts
3.Red Bull - 131pts
4.Williams - 121pts
5.Lotus - 71pts
6.Ferrari - 58pts
7.Toro Rosso - 20pts
8.Force India - 14pts
9.Sauber - best finish 11th

rjbetty

22nd December 2014, 06:25

9.BRITAIN
Grid
1.Rosberg
2.Bottas +1.043
3.Vettel +1.168
4.Button +1.301
5.Kvyat +1.378
6.Maldonado +1.409
7.Grosjean +1.509
8.Ricciardo +1.706
9.Verstappen +2.008
10.Massa +2.042
11.Sainz Jr +2.168
12.Perez +2.216
13.Raikkonen +2.217
14.Nasr +3.135
15.Hulkenberg +3.301
16.Hamilton +3.673
17.Ericsson +4.396
19.Alonso +5.691

Bottas, Vettel and Maldonado get their best grid slots of the season, but look where Hamilton and Alonso are!

GO! The top 5 are Bottas, Rosberg, Maldonado, Vettel and Massa! Rosberg gets Bottas into Stowe.

By lap 5 Hamilton breaks into the top 10 and after lap 10, he is 7th before flying past Grosjean for 6th. By lap 20 he is finally up to 2nd ahead of Bottas, Vettel and the McLarens.

Massa has been holding up a huge queue in 8th of Ricciardo, Raikkonen, the McLarens, Toro Rossos and Perez!

On lap 24 Vettel spins from 4th and unfortunately loses a whole lap. Tough times for Ferrari as Raikkonen is only 12th.

Rosberg consistently holds a gap of 24sec over Hamilton.

Vettel can't get past Hulkenberg for 15th, losing a lot of time.

Kvyat, Raikkonen and Ricciardo cross the line 5.8sec apart. Button crosses the line with smoke pouring out of his engine. Great recovery by Alonso too, from 19th on the grid.

Result
1.Rosberg
2.Hamilton +19
3.Bottas +55
4.Alonso +1:28
5.Grosjean +1:34
6.Button -1lap
7.Kvyat -1lap
8.Raikkonen -1lap
9.Ricciardo -1lap
10.Maldonado -1lap
11.Perez -1lap
12.Sainz Jr -1lap
13.Massa -1lap
14.Vettel -1lap
15.Hulkenberg -1lap
16.Nasr -2laps
17.Ericsson -2laps
DNF.Verstappen -7laps

Fastest Lap: Rosberg -0.265

10.GERMANY (NURBURGRING)
Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.041
3.Ricciardo +0.404
4.Kvyat +0.437
5.Button +0.637
6.Vettel +0.850
7.Bottas +0.884
8.Alonso +0.965
9.Grosjean +1.077
10.Raikkonen +1.245
11.Sainz Jr +1.647
12.Massa +1.721
13.Perez +2.086
14.Verstappen +2.161
15.Maldonado +2.288
16.Hulkenberg +2.403
17.Ericsson +2.438
18.Nasr +4.041

Away they go, and Ricciardo takes the lead from Rosberg, Vettel and Hamilton. Perez and Hulkenberg are up to 7th and 10th while Ericsson has both front and rear wings smashed and must pit.

Hamilton makes an incredibly late lunge on Vettel for 3rd into the hairpin on lap 1, naughtily bumping him aside to take 3rd.

Rosberg gets Ricciardo into the chicane on lap 1 while Kvyat does the same to Vettel, and Bottas to Perez. Suddenly Ricciardo has problems and is down to 17th by lap 5. Rosberg leads Hamilton by 1.5sec ahead of Kvyat, Button and Vettel.

By lap 15 Rosberg continues to lead Hamilton by 1.5sec while Ericsson has retired, as has Vettel, who things aren't really working out for at the moment.

Halfway through the race and Rosberg leads Hamilton by 10sec, with Kvyat, Button and Bottas next.

Oh shoot, unfortunately fell asleep again and can't really recall the rest including how Rosberg hit trouble.

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg
3.Button
4.Bottas
5.Ricciardo
6.Alonso
7.Sainz Jr
8.Raikkonen
9.Perez
10.Grosjean
11.Massa
12.Hulkenberg
13.Maldonado
14.Nasr
15.Kvyat

steveaki13

22nd December 2014, 08:09

Nice work rjbetty,

your season is predicting is so much fun. Shame the title race is so one sided. :(

rjbetty

22nd December 2014, 22:07

11.HUNGARY
Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Ricciardo +0.030
3.Kvyat +0.204
4.Rosberg +0.473
5.Raikkonen +0.813
6.Alonso +1.059
7.Bottas +1.133
8.Button +1.213
9.Verstappen +1.307
10.Vettel +1.665
11.Sainz Jr +1.826
12.Grosjean +2.031
13.Massa +2.190
14.Hulkenberg +2.441
15.Maldonado +2.885
16.Nasr +3.999
17.Ericsson +4.145
18.Perez +4.811

Sainz Jr has a crash, ripping his rear wheel off. Max Verstappen is soon also out, having battled for 7th throughout.

Lap 16 and Hamilton spins! He loses just over a minute and is 13th.

Result
1.Rosberg
2.Ricciardo
3.Kvyat
4.Hamilton
5.Vettel
6.Bottas
7.Hulkenberg
8.Massa
9.Maldonado
10.Perez

Only 10 finishers, and a maiden podium for Kvyat.

Fastest Lap: Kvyat

Championship Standings
1.Hamilton - 241pts
2.Rosberg - 141pts
3.Bottas - 120pts
4.Ricciardo - 115pts
5.Button - 90pts
6.Alonso - 85pts
7.Kvyat - 67pts
8.Grosjean - 57pts
9.Vettel - 42pts
10.Massa - 40pts
11.Raikkonen - 34pts
12.Maldonado - 28pts
13.Hulkenberg - 20pts
14.Sainz Jr - 17pts
15.Verstappen - 9pts
16.Perez - 3pts
17.Ericsson - best finish 11th
18.Nasr - best finish 12th

1.Mercedes - 382pts
2.Red Bull - 182pts
3.McLaren - 175pts
4.Williams - 160pts
5.Lotus - 85pts
6.Ferrari - 76pts
7.Toro Rosso - 26pts
8.Force India - 23pts
9.Sauber

rjbetty

23rd December 2014, 00:41

Nice work rjbetty,

your season is predicting is so much fun. Shame the title race is so one sided. :(

Thank you. Yeah it is a shame as I like to see Lewis pushed. It's not over yet though.

12.BELGIUM
It is possible for Lewis Hamilton to win the world championship today, and Mercedes the constructors, even though he and Rosberg have been close in pace once again this season. A 100pt lead with 5 races including this one to go.

Grid
1.Kvyat
2.Hamilton +0.494
3.Rosbegrg +0.823
4.Bottas +0.830
5.Alonso +0.987
6.Ricciardo +1.240
7.Sainz Jr +1.564
8.Maldonado +1.727
9.Raikkonen +1.847
10.Massa +2.019
11.Perez +2.022
12.Grosjean +2.593
13.Hulkenberg +2.728
14.Verstappen +2.844
15.Button +3.051
16.Vettel +3.419
17.Ericsson +4.490
22.Nasr +10.896

Check out the amazing qualifying with Daniil Kvyat on a maiden pole and Button and Vettel well out of it.

When Hamilton pits on lap 13, Kvyat takes the lead! Hamilton is then caught in backmarkers allowing Rosberg to close, who overtakes him at the end of the lap! Button is atill running 17th, almost half a lap down on 10th place.

Amazing racing as the Mercedes catch Kvyat by lap 20. Rosberg puts a brilliant move into Eau Rouge to take it, only for Hamilton to close up on both, slipstream past the outside of Kvyat on the Kemmel straight, then massively slipstreaming Rosberg, only for Kvyat to outbrake them both and take the lead again! It looks like Rosberg is the fastest out there today though.

A couple of laps later they are both past and Lewis unbelievably slipsteams Rosberg from way behind up the final hill, and gets him for the lead into the chicane. Rosberg´s line is compromised and Kvyat closes up, and splistreams past again the next lap. All this despite a still dodgy Renault engine. Rosberg gets back past a lap later but on lap 25 Kvyat is still only 0.5sec off Rosberg, while Hamilton is now 7sec up the road.

Vettel has been putting in top 5 laps consistently, but is 15th...

On lap 27, heartbreak as Kvyat pulls off the track. Driver of the day definitely. Strangely, the Mercedes pit at the same time and Rosberg is stacked behind Hamilton. That´s the race settled then it looks like. Meanwhile, Hulkenberg has passed Raikkonen for 10th, and is chasing teammate Perez who isn´t stopping again. Hulkenberg tries into Blanchimont, only to fail and lose momentum, allowing Raikkonen to magnificently sweep outside him, despite the Ferrari engine!

Hamilton still has the lead and is looking good to win the championship today.

Rosberg chips away the gap ever so slightly over the race, but at the end several cars behind run out of fuel. 6th to 15th (Massa-Button) were covered by about only 20sec, but Massa, Perez, Maldonado, Raikkonen and Carlos Sainz Jr all faltered on the final lap, letting through Max Verstappen to claim a superb 6th ahead of Grosjean. Button and Vettel only finished 14th 1nd 15th, making too little progress during the race.

So Hamilton wins, and with it becomes a triple wold champion. Much congrats as unlike the real last season, it has pretty much all gone his way this year, despite me giving close performance figures to both Mercedes, which I will reveal at the end of this season. Rosberg has still done a great job even though absurd amounts have gone wrong, and he was the quicker driver today. Mercedes are also confirmed as constructors' champions too, so a great day for them.

Meanwhile, Bottas had made a late stop and was 3sec quicker than Ricciardo on the final lap, getting him into the final corner for 4th! A miserable result for Ferrari in the end who leave empty handed, and a shame for Perez who was challenging for 6th much of the race.

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +8
3.Alonso +42
4.Bottas +1:14
5.Ricciardo +1:16
6.Verstappen +1:57
7.Grosjean +2:02
8.Massa -1lap
9.Perez -1lap
10.Maldonado -1lap
11.Raikkonen -1lap
12.Sainz Jr -1lap
13.Hulkenberg -1lap
14.Button -1lap
15.Vettel -1lap
16.Ericsson -1lap

Fastest Lap: Rosberg

jens

25th December 2014, 03:39

Having a bit of a sleepless night and decided to complete my 2015 F1 season prediction.

Soo...
A very conservative prediction it has to be said. I have done many predictions, but I can't remember a prediction, which was basically a carbon copy of the previous year. But that's how the flow of this season went.

Quite an incredible fight for P4 with lots of drivers within a shot. A bit like 2014 was, but in this case even a tighter battle.

1. 44 L. Hamilton GBR Mercedes Mercedes 366
2. 6 N. Rosberg GER Mercedes Mercedes 327
3. 3 D. Ricciardo AUS Red Bull Renault 235
4. 77 V. Bottas FIN Williams Mercedes 148
5. 5 S. Vettel GER Ferrari Ferrari 147
6. 26 D. Kvyat RUS Red Bull Renault 146
7. 14 F. Alonso SPA McLaren Honda 127
8. 7 K. Räikkönen FIN Ferrari Ferrari 110
9. 19 F. Massa BRA Williams Mercedes 104
10. 22 J. Button GBR McLaren Honda 85
11. 27 N. Hülkenberg GER Force India Mercedes 67
12. 8 R. Grosjean FRA Lotus Mercedes 66
13. 11 S. Pérez MEX Force India Mercedes 39
14. 13 P. Maldonado VEN Lotus Mercedes 28
15. 12 F. Nasr* BRA Sauber Ferrari 9
16. 55 C. Sainz Jr* SPA STR Renault 8
17. 33 M. Verstappen* NED STR Renault 6
18. 9 M. Ericsson SWE Sauber Ferrari 2

And also constructors:
1. Mercedes – 693
2. Red Bull – 381
3. Ferrari – 257
4. Williams – 252
5. McLaren – 212
6. Force India – 106
7. Lotus – 94
8. Toro Rosso – 14
9. Sauber – 11

Podium finishers race-by-race. All in all 20 races. Korea doesn't happen. Though Russia does, even though I suspect it can get very critical due to political situation and Korea might replace it...

Aus HAM RIC VET
Mal HAM ROS RIC
Chn ROS BOT HAM
Bah ROS HAM MAS
Spa HAM ROS GRO
Mon RIC ALO RAI
Can HAM BOT HUL
Aut ROS RIC BOT
Gbr HAM RIC VET
Ger ROS KVY MAS
Hun HAM ROS RIC
Bel HAM ROS RIC
Ita ROS HAM BOT
Sin ALO VET GRO
Jpn HAM RIC BOT
Rus HAM ROS KVY
Usa HAM ROS RIC
Mex ROS RIC KVY
Bra HAM VET RAI
Uae ROS HAM BOT

Some comments:

Mercedes – slightly reduced advantage, but still good enough to get consistent 1-2s without others getting a look in. Though if a Merc hits trouble they'll have a tougher time to move up the field. Loses wins only on street circuits (Monaco, Singapore) due to car issues.

Red Bull – confidently second best, Kvyat slightly improves in the second half of the season.

Ferrari – pretty decent on street circuits and in the wet, where all the podiums come from. Struggles on faster circuits, especially Monza and Montreal. Slight improvement over 2014.

Williams – slightly going backwards with factory-powered teams (RBR, Ferrari, McLaren) getting slightly better grip on new regs. Still very good with lots of podiums.

McLaren – suffers from several reliability problems especially early on. Otherwise a solid points-runner. Alonso puts in his traditional exceptional season and moves that car way up in the point standings, including winning the most stunning race of the year, the Singapore Grand Prix.

Force India – most of the time fights for minor points, excels on faster circuits like Montreal and Monza. Hülkenberg finally gets his maiden podium. Otherwise business as usual.

Lotus – car, which shows promise with Grosjean getting two podiums. But the chassis is very inconsistent, doesn't go well in the wet and on several circuits, plus they throw away a fair amount of points.

Toro Rosso – complete rookie line-up holds them somewhat back especially early in the year. Sometimes gets points.

Sauber – still at the back, but on odd occasion can mix it with others. Nasr's impressive P7 in messy Brazilian GP helps him above Toro Rosso drivers in the points.

Triumph

25th December 2014, 13:41

My prediction is that it's pretty much guaranteed that Lewis will win the championship again. He had to fight back from significant disadvantages three times during last season, so even assuming equal bad luck in 2015, he'll do it again. Assuming less bad luck he'll make it look easy.

rjbetty

27th December 2014, 02:28

13.ITALY
Grid
Ferraris set the exact same time.

1.Rosberg
2.Hamilton +0.162
3.Bottas +0.212
4.Alonso +0.216
5.Button +0.365
6.Massa +0.845
7.Grosjean +0.850
8.Ricciardo +0.851
9.Verstappen +1.211
10.Kvyat +1.289
11.Raikkonen +1.373
12.Vettel +1.373
13.Hulkenberg +1.572
14.Maldonado +1.689
15.Sainz Jr +1.814
16.Perez +2.369
17.Ericsson +3.097
18.Nasr +3.179

GO! Bottas absolutely flies into the lead, followed by... Max Verstappen!! Hulkenberg is up to 4th and Sainz Jr 9th.

Rosberg gets by Verstappen while Hamilton takes Hulk. Kvyat, Raikkonen and Vettel are only 13th, 15th and 17th...

On lap 4, Hamilton on a better strategy passes Rosberg into turn 1, only for Nico to slipstream him back into the next chicane! Hamilton gets him for good next lap. Ricciardo is only 13th while Bottas leads by 1.5sec. Ferraris are now up to 14th and 15th (sigh!) and move up further when Sainz Jr retires.

Hamilton has caught Bottas now and passes him on lap 7, while Max Verstappen is still running 6th though has Grosjean behind him. Grosjean passes him only for Max to repass! By the end of the lap Button is now with them too.

Hamilton pits extremely early on lap 10, dropping to 12th. Ferraris are just behind and by now are 30+ sec off the pace...

On lap 12 Rosberg finally gets past Bottas for the lead, while Perez pits. Hamilton brilliantly takes both Ricciardo and Hulkenberg on the back straight at the same time, only to immediately put a wheel wrong and crash at Parabolica - and Lewis Hamilton is sensationally out of the Italian GP!

The 2 Ferraris are close throughout, and Vettel gets past Raikkonen. Hulkenberg spins out at turn 1, and Raikkonen retakes his team-mate, and finally breaks into the top 10! Meanwhile, Alonso in 3rd is quietly getting on with the job, just 4.5sec behind Rosberg on lap 19, and catching Bottas. Massa is 4th while Grosjean and Button are having a great scrap for 5th, taking and retaking each other.

Into lap 22, and Alonso gets Bottas for 2nd. Maldonado then has an enormous crash in Curva Grande, ripping several wheels off his car. Rosberg and Massa pit that lap, exiting 3rd (exactly in front of Grosjean) and 9th. Vettel has got Raikkonen for 10th and has edged a gap out now.

Everyone has made their final stops after lap 33 or so. On lap 30, Bottas stops from the lead, exiting just before Alonso, and now 7.6sec behind Rosberg. Sensationally he starts catching Rosberg by quite some knots and the gap is 5.1sec after lap 34. Verstappen retires from his good race, having run in the top 10 throughout.

The gap for the lead reduces to 4.8 4.5 3.9 then 3.8sec over the next 4 laps. This is exciting and Bottas is doing a great job.

Then it's 3.6 then 3.4 as Rosberg comes to lap Raikkonen in 10th on lap 38. Vettel has opened a gap in 9th of over 8sec by now, but suddenly... He spins off at turn 1! Vettel has lost 45sec and is now 11th ahead of only the Saubers.

Bottas continues closing the gap to 3.2sec. On lap 40 he is held up by Raikkonen in the Parabolica when it's his turn to lap his fellow Finn. Even so, he still closes on Rosberg to 2.8sec! Bottas has continued to lap faster than Rosberg every single lap after the stops. Interestingly, Alonso in 3rd is maintaining an 8.1sec gap to Rosberg, with almost identical times continuously.

Bottas takes another tenth off the lead, but a backmarker is coming into view...

Button has oh-so-gradually caught Grosjean for 5th, and while both come to lap Vettel into the Parabolica, Button nabs it. Now Bottas has got the gap down to 2.3sec! With 11 laps to go this is exciting!

The backmarker is cleared on lap 43 by both drivers, Bottas gaining a big slipstream down the back straight. Now the gap is 1.5sec!! Bottas can see Rosberg in front of him clearly now.

Ericsson retires in front of the leaders at the entry to Ascari, and Bottas gets the gap down another tenth, to 1.4sec. Rosberg getting out ahead of Grosjean by a tiny margin could prove critical to him holding on to the lead. I really don't know what is going to happen here with 9 laps left, but I'm loving it, and am going to watch the rest of the race in full just like a real one, without accelerating time.

There is a panic as I accidentally press the power off button, but I am able to wake it up and continue the race, so I save it, having worried I'd just lost the race!

OMGoodness the gap is now just 0.9sec!!

After the next lap, lap 46 of 53, it's just 0.6sec!! I am worried Bottas' tyres will go off. Rosberg is tantalisingly just out of reach for a slipstream. It's not over yet. They are about to catch a backmarker which can change everything!

Seconds after I type this, Rosberg is slowed slightly by the backmarker coming out of the second Lesmo, but Bottas slipstreams past him, and... He goes for Rosberg! Down the outside, they are side by side heading down to the Ascari, and Bottas gets him round the outside to lead the Italian GP!!

But it's not over as Rosberg is all over him down the main straight, 6 laps to go, and he retakes Bottas into turn 1!

While these amazing events are unfolding, Button is quietly edging up to Felipe Massa in 4th, and is now less than 2sec behind. Alonso is still 3rd, less than 7sec off the lead.

With 5 laps to go, Rosberg leads Bottas by 0.6sec. But there's another backmarker coming into view - a Sauber. After that, the road will be clear till the end of the race.

Rosberg catches the Sauber, Felipe Nasr, as they are going through the Ascari, and slipstreams past on the back straight. But then, crazily, he tries to retake Rosberg into Parabolica, holding up Bottas badly! Now Bottas is 1.1sec behind with 4 laps to go.

On this lap, lap 50, Grosjean retires from 6th just out of the Parabolica, with the leaders not far behind. But he is removed before he can affect them. With 3 laps to go, the gap is 0.9sec. Daniil Kvyat is maybe 7sec ahead in 7th, but it looks like the leaders might not catch up to him in time, so the race should be safe still.

Vettel has moved back up into the points following Grosjean's late retirement, and there are only 11 runners left (including all the backmarkers who have all retired). Un-noticed amongst all this, Button has got by Massa for 4th.

And after lap 51, it looks like my fears may be confirmed as Bottas laps 0.047sec slower than Rosberg, the only lap apart from the lap Bottas was retaken, that he was slower than Rosberg since the pitstops. The gap is 1.0sec.

Bottas is faster again after lap 52, but only by 0.038sec. The gap is now 0.9sec - and this is the last lap!!

Bottas isn't quite close enough for a slipstream, and sure enough, Rosberg laps 0.080sec quicker to take the chequered flag, just +1.058sec clear. There is seeming poetic justice as Felipe Nasr retires with engine failure on the last lap, as Alonso takes the flag in 3rd. Meanwhile, Vettel finishes 35.2sec behind Raikkonen having lost 45sec earlier... Perez continues his run of consecutive points finishes having scored none at all in the entire first 9 races of 16 in the season. There are only 10 finishers!

We will never quite know if Bottas would have won if Felipe Nasr hadn't ruined things for him. It will be one of those questions always unanswered, but for me, this was one of the most thrilling races on Grand Prix 2 of all time. A classic to go down in history. Next is Japan, which is usually quite an an interesting race. :D

Result
1.Rosberg
2.Bottas +1
3.Alonso +7
4.Button +42
5.Massa +45
6.Ricciardo +1:05
7.Kvyat +1:22
8.Raikkonen -1lap
9.Perez -1lap
10.Vettel -1lap
DNF.Nasr -3laps ENGINE
DNF.Grosjean -5laps

Fastest Lap: Hamilton

And now for the championship standings with 3 races left:

1.Hamilton 266pts
2.Rosberg 184pts
3.Bottas 150pts
4.Ricciardo 133pts
5.Alonso 117pts
6.Button 102pts
7.Kvyat 73pts
8.Grosjean 63pts
9.Massa 54pts
10.Vettel 43pts
11.Raikkonen 38pts
12.Maldonado 29pts
13.Hulkenberg 20pts
14.Verstappen 17pts
15.Sainz Jr 17pts
16.Perez 7pts

1.Mercedes 450pts
2.McLaren 219pts
3.Red Bull 206pts
4.Williams 204pts
5.Lotus 92pts
6.Ferrari 81pts
7.Toro Rosso 34pts
8.Force India 27pts
9.Sauber

Tazio

27th December 2014, 19:20

13.ITALY

3.Bottas 150pts

9.Massa 54pts

Interesting fantasy mate, but Felipe will be much closer to VB than this......Much closer! :rolleyes:

jens

27th December 2014, 21:44

Interesting fantasy mate, but Felipe will be much closer to VB than this......Much closer! :rolleyes:

Having played computer games several years ago, I know they can throw out fairly inconsistent and imbalanced results. Sometimes people point out, how unlucky driver A or B has been. Well, then look at what games can do with its "random factor".:D This Rosberg season also indicates it as he had 3-4 DNFs in a row I think?

Otherwise not a bad season, rj.

rjbetty

28th December 2014, 00:51

Interesting fantasy mate, but Felipe will be much closer to VB than this......Much closer! :rolleyes:

I know! I'm very aware of this. I haven't nailed everything perfectly, as I expect if the car is as competitive as it is in the game, Felipe should get on the podium.

rjbetty

28th December 2014, 00:53

Having played computer games several years ago, I know they can throw out fairly inconsistent and imbalanced results. Sometimes people point out, how unlucky driver A or B has been. Well, then look at what games can do with its "random factor".:D This Rosberg season also indicates it as he had 3-4 DNFs in a row I think?

Otherwise not a bad season, rj.

Yeah Rosberg crashed out of the first race, which I don't see happeneing in real life. He also crashed in Bahrain but survived. Then followed that with 3DNFs in a row - all mechanical I believe. Unbelievable. I promise you, enyone who understands Grand Prix 2 and GP2 Edit knows you can't manipulate it like that even if you want to.

It is meant to be as true to reality as possible, and hopefully totally devoid of bias, if that's possible.

rjbetty

28th December 2014, 02:22

14.JAPAN
Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.287
3.Kvyat +0.762
4.Ricciardo +0.803
5.Massa +1.038
6.Button +1.154
7.Grosjean +1.347
8.Bottas +1.502
9.Maldonado +1.622
10.Verstappen +2.039
11.Raikkonen +2.111
12.Hulkenberg +2.336
13.Alonso +2.349
14.Perez +2.357
15.Vettel +2.502
16.Sainz Jr +2.696
17.Ericsson +2.851
18.Nasr +4.636

Away they go! Rosberg shoots into the lead while Kvyat drives outside of Hamilton into 2nd. Kvyat shines again by keeping up with the Mercs. Hamilton gets past and into the lead, then flies at least a second a lap quicker than anybody, on a good strategy.

Maldonado and Bottas collide and are out.

Overtaking is very difficult here, as bad as Monaco, so Vettel suffers.

After the final stops, Massa is 7th behind a great fight for 4th led by Grosjean, Ricciardo and Button. Massa gets past them all!

Not that much else happens so Hamilton manages to win again. Except Button makes an opportunistic move on the last lap to get Ricciardo. Poor Vettel could only manage 12th after in qualifying, getting held up by Hamilton who was on his outlap, then locking his tyres badly into the hairpin. He looked on similar pace to Ricciardo who qualified 4th. He was only 7-8sec behind Kimi in the end...

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +24
3.Kvyat +56
4.Massa +1:16
5.Grosjean +1:24
6.Button +1:25
7.Ricciardo +1:26
8.Alonso -1lap
9.Raikkonen -1lap
10.Hulkenberg -1lap
11.Verstappen -1lap
12.Vettel -1lap
13.Ericsson -1lap

Fastest Lap: Rosberg

15.UNITED STATES
Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Ricciardo +0.408
3.Button +0.520
4.Vettel +0.526
5.Rosberg +0.640
6.Raikkonen +0.971
7.Kvyat +1.117
8.Maldonado +1.291
9.Perez +1.958
10.Alonso +1.961
11.Massa +1.992
12.Grosjean +2.002
13.Bottas +2.203
14.Verstappen +2.280
15.Ericsson +2.356
16.Nasr +2.561
17.Hulkenberg +2.885
18.Sainz Jr +3.596

Jenson Button is the only retirement, early on with an engine failure. Vettel gets his and Ferrari's best result of the season, qualifying, finishing, and fastest lapping 4th.

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +1
3.Ricciardo +22
4.Vettel +37
5.Bottas +1:07
6.Alonso +1:08
7.Raikkonen +1:08
8.Maldonado -1lap
9.Kvyat -1lap
10.Perez -1lap
11.Grosjean -1lap
12.Massa -1lap
13.Verstappen -1lap
14.Sainz Jr -1lap
15.Nasr -2laps
16.Ericsson -2laps
17.Hulkenberg -2laps

Fastest Lap: Rosberg

16.BRAZIL
Grid
1.Rosberg
2.Hamilton +0.191
3.Kvyat +0.479
4.Button +0.480
5.Bottas +1.002
6.Raikkonen +1.130
7.Alonso +1.132
8.Ricciardo +1.139
9.Massa +1.210
10.Sainz Jr +1.224
11.Maldonado +1.576
12.Verstappen +1.626
13.Grosjean +1.822
14.Nasr +2.304
15.Vettel +2.305
16.Ericsson +2.309
17.Hulkenberg +2.715
18.Perez +3.491

Some very closely matched times there indeed.

Race: Button shoots into the lead on a good strategy! Kvyat retires on lap 3, then on lap 10, Vettel is out while trying to climb up the field, capping off a frustrating season.

Button pits on lap 17 and after a while is stuck behind Massa who is 3rd. Rosberg leads Hamilton consistently by around 1sec. Button gets through on lap 27.

Ericsson has now retired too while Button is 25sec off the lead.

Hamilton has a major problem a few laps later as he loses over 20sec!

Button gamely holds on to the lead after Rosberg pits, and keeps holding him off, with help from backmarkers. Button holds the lead all the way to his final stop on lap 46. He drops to 3rd but then starts to catch the delayed Hamilton!

Button tries hard and stays with Hamilton but isn't really able to close or overtake, so that's that.

Result
1.Rosberg
2.Hamilton
3.Button
4.Bottas
5.Alonso
6.Ricciardo
7.Massa
8.Raikkonen
9.Sainz
10.Maldonado
11.Grosjean
12.Verstappen
13.Hulkenberg
14.Nasr
15.Perez

So that's it - here are the final standings

1.Hamilton - 334pts
2.Rosberg - 245pts
3.Bottas - 172pts
4.Ricciardo - 162pts
5.Alonso - 139pts
6.Button - 125pts
7.Kvyat - 90pts
8.Grosjean - 73pts
9.Massa - 72pts
10.Vettel - 55pts
11.Raikkonen - 50pts
12.Maldonado - 34pts
13.Hulkenberg - 21pts
14.Sainz - 19pts
15.Verstappen - 17pts
16.Perez - 8pts
17.Nasr - best finish 11th
18.Ericsson - best finish 11th

1.Mercedes - 579pts
2.McLaren - 264pts
3.Red Bull - 252pts
4.Williams - 244pts
5.Lotus - 107pts
6.Ferrari - 105pts
7.Toro Rosso - 36pts
8.Force India - 29pts
9.Sauber

rjbetty

28th December 2014, 02:55

And now for the performance figures, in % (which means slightly more than 1sec per lap, per percent (haha) i.e. given that an F1 lap averages about 90sec. 1% = about 1.1sec

Qualifying
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.02
3.Alonso +0.93
4.Bottas +1.07
5.Button +1.12
6.Ricciardo +1.14
7.Massa +1.26
8.Kvyat +1.30
9.Vettel +1.54
10.Grosjean +1.73
11.Raikkonen +1.80
12.Maldonado +2.00
13.Verstappen +2.25
14.Sainz +2.29
15.Hulkenberg +2.48
16.Perez +2.69
17.Ericsson +3.80
18.Nasr +3.99

Race
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.09
3.Alonso +1.03
4.Bottas +1.09
5.Button +1.12
6.Ricciardo +1.19
7.Massa +1.48
8.Kvyat +1.52
9.Vettel +1.72
10.Grosjean +1.73
11.Raikkonen +2.07
12.Maldonado +2.20
13.Hulkenberg +2.24
14.Perez +2.30
15.Verstappen +2.42
16.Sainz +2.50
17.Ericsson +4.16
18.Nasr +4.46

I'm not saying I got the team-mate gaps completely right at all. In fact I want to run a second season with some modifications. But these figures kind of show what I'm guessing the team's performance might be like in 2015.

Conclusions
1.Mercedes
As you can see, a similar qual and race pattern continues between the two drivers. It was just random (though I am guessing the way GP2 is programmed it isn't truly random, but there seem to be several sets of patterns that the game can 'choose' between performance, reliability etc The permutations of which can be many. Don't forget cars can be delayed by backmarkers in qualifying. I keep qualifying at just 20mins, so some drivers get blocked. This helps simulate real life grids which are fairly often a little mixed up due to penalties etc. I feel I've got this at a pretty realistic level.

It was just the way the cards fell that Rosberg had all 3 of Mercedes mechanical failures - in a row at that! Otherwise it was close. I am guessing Hamilton may have a very small increase in performance over 2014, with title confidence plus more experience of the team and car. Hamilton outqualified Rosberg 10-6.

2.McLaren-Honda
Wow! 2nd overall shows Button was the right choice indeed! Amazingly Button outqualified Alonso quite substantially - but this was because Alonso was compromised several times. I'm expecting a little more unreliability with a new engine than other teams. I'm assuming the Honda engine will be somewhere about 20bhp short of Mercedes, and ahead of Renault and Ferrari. A lot of performance depends on the engine, to state the obvious maybe.

3.Red Bull
A real shock that Kvyat actually started ahead of Ricciardo 9-7! But then he did outqualify Vergne 12-7 in his rookie season. Circumstances were largely to blame too. Both drivers got a pole - the only non-Mercedes cars to do so. The points table is a fair reflection that Ricciardo was definitely the better racer, though Kvyat lost out several times in top positions.

4.Williams
I'm guessing Williams will consolidate a little but fall slightly off the pace of Mercedes who edge even further ahead. The team are more consistent but with less high highs and not so bad lows. Bottas is a fair reflection of this though maybe I should have lessened his race pace slightly. This is because in test seasons, Williams never seemed to do that well. It's something to do with the engine vs car/driver performance. I'm not sure the GP2Edit calculates the figures quite correctly. You see, I modify engine power to also include straightline speed from the car as there's no other way to simulate this. Williams is the highest, but I think maybe the a.i.setups have too short gears meaning high power can't be exploited.

As for Massa, I think I underestimated him, too conscious of the points gap to Bottas in 2014. He should have been able to score a better result than a single 4th place. I think I should increase his variance in performance so he has more highs and lows, enabling podium challenges on good days.

5.Lotus
Pastor has been given poor race pace to try and simulate his inconsistency. You can't do much for inconsistency in the game other than increase the driver's variance (i.e. a high variance will mean 2nd and 11th is more likely than 6th and 7th)

6.Ferrari
Oh dear, I was interested to see how this one would go, and I have to say that unless Ferrari shape up, they're going to get worse. This was mainly because of McLaren and Lotus improving. Vettel did probably lose out quite a lot more than Raikkonen. Kimi was a bit more competitive this time, but not by much. Still he was able to beat Vettel pretty much half the time. However, Vettel did suffer quite a few qualifying issues when he looked fast, notably Japan. Also, when Kimi was ahead, it always seemed quite a small gap but when Vettel was ahead the gap was often fairly huge.

7.Toro Rosso
Not much to say, just a continuation of 2014 with more impressive qualifying than race points earned.

8.Force India
If money problems finally do catch up with Force India and compromise their 2015 car, and especially it's development, this is how it could turn out! The cards didn't fall particularly well for them however. I think I underestimated Perez's race pace vs Hulk though maybe this was coloured by Perez beating Hulk by quite a bit in a test season.

9.Sauber
Not much to say.

Tazio

28th December 2014, 03:44

I know! I'm very aware of this. I haven't nailed everything perfectly, as I expect if the car is as competitive as it is in the game, Felipe should get on the podium.I'm sorry rj, I thought these were results of a fertile imagination, not the results of a video game.:o
Cheers mate

rjbetty

28th December 2014, 04:02

And so with that, I will give my refined thoughts on the team's 2015 prospects as I have thought more about it since my first post.

1.Mercedes
Well nothing's changed here - I still put Mercedes first - huge revelation. Question is, do we think the gap will close to the other teams or actually spread out more. I am very conscious that it could since even in stable regulations, gaps opened out over the previous year especially in 2002 - I remember that so well as it was a huge shock to me this could happen as I was hoping for the opposite. 2011 and 2013, even 2007 with Ferrari and McLaren moving into a duopoly are other examples.

As for the drivers, there shouldn't be much change over 2014, but who will improve most? Hamilton still hasn;t been in the team that long compared to Rosberg, so more scope for him there, plus the title win after all those relatively hard years of near misses, could boost him. As for Rosberg, I don't see him doing a Webber 2011, he seems too determined and young yet. I absolutely don't underestimate him and he's usually uncomfortably close to Hamilton, though if one driver does have a bigger gap behind in a few races, it's more likely to be Nico imo.

2.McLaren
A big unknown. It might be hard to envisage them in 2nd right now, but remember the mistake of judging too much by the previous season! A new year is a new year - and who would have thought Williams would do so well after 2013? And Lotus so badly come to think of it. Therefore, it may be that McLaren can even get to within half a second off Mercedes over the season and be a bit of a dark horse if everything falls their way. It mostly depends on the engine.

I see McLaren in a group of 5 teams behind Mercedes, any one of them can finish 2nd and anyone can finish 6th, and it's all a case of musical chairs who's where! I hope Alonso and Ron Dennis can get on much better this time and old hurts can get healed - who knows it could even turn into a great friendship - who'd have thought Hamilton and Alonso would go on to have the respect for each other they now do? That's a nice thought but maybe too much to expect at the mo.

Alonso will have to settle in though, so could be more vulnerable to an on-form Button. Given Jenson v Lewis was closer than most probably expected, it's not unreasonable to suggest it could be close here too - especially since Alonso's now the one settling in - not Jense.

Peter Prodromou is highly regarded as Newey's right hand man. How much influence can he have? Maybe a fair bit, given iirc he gave McLaren a new front wing for Russia which really boosted them. I will stick my neck out and predict a good season THOUGH I SAID THIS THE PREVIOUS TWO YEARS ALSO!

3.Williams
I am going to take another bold gamble here and suggest Williams may just edge 3rd over Red Bull! This is one of the hardest teams to call - have they peaked or can they build? It can go either way and it's just a blind guess as to which way. Previous form of following up a good season with a shocker doesn't look good, but this time the 2014 team all stay on, so they aren't going to have another 2011/13, but will they slip back into merely solid points with not so many podiums? I am going to be bold and say they may improve further (gulp).

The drivers should be better placed to maximise more points this time, as in 2014 they did throw quite a lot away. Bottas can be forgiven for inexperience, and Massa was settling in. Interestingly, as with Raikkonen/Grosjean 2012, it seems to be the experienced driver but who's new to the team who needs more settling in than an inexperienced driver who knows the team better.

Don't think they can challenge Mercedes for the title though. I don't see that EVER happening while with Merc seeing the works team can control the customer team with engine software, which Ron Dennis believes made quite a difference to McLaren in 2014.

4.Red Bull
I do not put Red Bull out of the top 3 lightly - in fact, I think they are probably favourites for 2nd again in reality, but I am going to gamble and say the kinda loss of Newey - and don't forget Prodromou - could cause the Bull's to lose momentum slightly, and be susceptible to other improving teams. If 4th seems too low, I also never expected them to be so far behind Mercedes this season. I put them 4th or lower at my peril though. I am guessing Kvyat, for all his speed, won't be an improvement on Vettel in the points area - remember he still did only score 8pts with a best of 9th in 2014, compared to Vergne's 21pts and 6th.

This doesn't actually mean much however, since Kvyat often had strong races - Austria, Monza, Abu Dhabi - and he retired from all those - also don't forget Ricciardo was unproven with only a brace of 7ths his best showing before this year...

5.Lotus
Another big question mark? How good will Lotus be in 2015? As with Williams after 2013, it's pretty obvious they will do better this year, but how much? Could they return to 2013 levels (I see that as the maximum with no reason to believe they will better that) or will it be more like I predicted for 2014 - Half decent points but behind Force India.?

They themselves are aiming to be close to Wiliams, in their own words. Again, we should be wary of judging too much by the previous season. Lotus say they understand much of where they went wrong with the car - this gives hope for scope for improvement.

A Mercedes engine, according to some figure I heard spouted may be worth 1.0sec over the Renault. This would immediately put Lotus about 2sec off the pace i.e. pretty much Force India territory. If they really can make a good gain with the chassis and aren't just talking cr@p. The main reason I see 5th or 6th more likely than 2nd or 3rd in the WCC is the driver in the second car...

6.Ferrari
Oh dear, Grand Prix 2 confirmed my fears that things may get worse before they get better. You see, with other teams seeming good for improvement, but Ferrari themselves not much, they could improve their gap to Mercedes but actually fall down the order. It could maybe go from no wins in 2014 to no podiums in 2015. Yikes! Since I formed this opinion, Marchionne himself, in the middle of firing the canteen lady, said the same, blaming di Montezemelo.

I don't know what is going on with the engine department. As I've already said, maybe not a good idea just to sack Luca Marmorini to replace him with... Who? Yeah exactly. If Mercedes really do find 60bhp, that means Ferrari must find the same or the only result is falling further behind, and being overtaken by Renault to boot.

The only hope is James Allison really, but he is just one man, and I don't know how much difference one man can make in all that mess. I really can't see Ferrari being the team of this 5 to be 2nd in the WCC. Come to think of it, I half expect Allison to be fired at which point I will give up.

Right - the drivers: On the face of it, not good. Both dislike the regs. One is settling in to a new team -and a totally new colour! If you think to Massa in 2006, Raikkonen in 2007, and Alonso in 2010, it does seem to take half a season to settle in at Maranello. So we should take this into account for Seb. tbh I'm really looking forward to seeing him in red, and maybe I can warm to him a little more now he's away from those... lovely people at Red Bull (Horner's such a loveable guy! :p )

I don't need to explain that Seb must beat Kimi. If he doesn't it will be catastrophic. The worst case scenario is if Raikkonen finds his form and Vettel continues to struggle, and more so in a new team and worse car. Sadly, since I do like Kimi, I don't see a huge transformation (there's just no reason to think so imo), but I'm sure he can't get much worse. Given that I don't expect Seb to match Alonso, certainly not in year 1, this pair should be more closely matched than 2014.

rjbetty

28th December 2014, 04:03

7.Force India
Another one quite hard to call maybe. You see, Force India always defy my expectations by proving competitive time and time again. They claim to have a chunk of time to find if they can find the solution to a certain car issue. That's IF btw. They are also using the Toyota windtunnel apparently, but how much money do they have to use it more than maybe 2 days?!!! Come to think of it, aren't Ferrari using it too? Has this much vaunted windtunnel actually done them any good? Come to think of it, did it ever actually do Toyota any good?

How much money do they have to make use of everything and pay Hulk's wages? If they finally run short, they could start heading towards Sauber, gulp. Needless to say, development will dry up again and points may be hard to come by later in the season.

8.Toro Rosso
Hmmm what to say here? It seemed the same old in 2014 but... Take into consideration they had that awful Renault lump, and look more closely at the stats: In 2014, Toro Rosso qualified on average merely 1sec slower than the lead Red Bull of Ricciardo! Think about this, if this was 2013, that would be 1sec off the pace - that's Massa/Grosjean territory and almost Alonso/Kimi ground!! It seems Vergne's preseason prognosis was right - it may just be that Toro Rosso actually produced a relative gem of a chassis - just it was amply masked by their dud PU.

I would assume the "KEY" to this could lie with their recently acquired technical director, previously of Force India and Sauber (look how good they got after he joined - though it seems there is a 1 year time lag before performance arrives).

I wonder if they can make a good gain in 2015, or if the big gains were already made in 2014 (but masked by the PU).

The drivers, overall, should be a step down over 2014. How can Sainz be expected to match the experience of Vergne straight off? How will Verstappen compare to what Kvyat produced? Overall I'm not sure much will change and STR will be same old.

Drivers: I have no idea who will be better; Sainz with more experience or Verstappen with apparently more potential. Sounds like Max's racecraft is good - look forward to seeing it.

9.Sauber
AFAIK The adjective most commonly used to describe Sauber's 2014 driver line-up, including by me, was "uninspiring". You could also say anonymous, mediocre, bland, and plain cr@p.

If we thought 2014's line up was uninspiring, then 2015 takes it to a whole new level. Check out these drivers - Kenneth Eriksson - former Hyundai and Skoda WRC driver - who must be in his mid-60s now. Sorry what was that? ... ... Oh right...
Sorry... Marcus Ericsson was not terrible in 2014 but imo he drove at the same pace as 2013 Chilton, but far more crashy. He did at least improve quite well later on, though we don't know if that was because his car received good updates while Kobayashi's didn't!!

As for Felipe Nasr, well I think it's fair to say he won't be much improvement over Gutierrez.

All this means another pointless season I expect, especially as cars should be more reliable now (back to 2013 levels already *sigh!*)

The only hope is if the car improves, and with all the prize money coming from 10th last year, it doesn't look like it will. One of the few positives is the chassis did improve at the end of 2014, beating Lotus and qualifying 10th (!) at the US. Even then, taking into account the drivers, there is little hope. Maybe Sauber have more scope to improve than others though??? But do they have the money to implement anything?

jens

28th December 2014, 13:44

Okay, going to add some thought after my earlier prediction and rjbetty's recent views as well. Our predictions are slightly different, there are some similarities, but some things, which are hard to guess. The reality will probably be some kind of a third option that no-one guessed though.:D

Some thoughts on teams and driver line-ups.

Mercedes – They should definitely be the best. The only question in my mind is if anyone can beat Mercedes on merit on some type of circuit – like street circuit, wet weather. Williams got close last year a few occasions (Austria). Wet weather and street circuits are places, where other teams are naturally slightly closer even if not by much. I remember Red Bull was lapping fairly close to Merc last year in the wet. Vettel was very close to pole position a few times – Malaysia it was I think.

Rosberg in my mind will be close to Hamilton. He is still young and should continue in good form. However, he'd probably need a string of Hamilton's unluck and lack of form (2011) to win it. I was impressed Rosberg outqualified Hamilton last year. If he can do it the other way around in 2015 – qualify behind, but race better – he could have a chance? But I am unsure he can do it.

Red Bull – I projected Kvyat to qualify about in the range of Ricciardo, but have more inconsistency in races. I think Kvyat is fairly talented and he showed a lot already in his rookie year. I may have underestimated him, I do not know. I felt Ricciardo might have shown slightly more in 2013 than Kvyat did last year. Then again this was Kvyat's rookie season... Also unluck might come into point-scoring and Kvyat might suffer from more car problems.

If I am not mistaken, Newey leaves after 2015? Even then I think Red Bull should remain pretty good for a few years. Let's recall Ferrari. After Team Schumacher (Byrne, Brawn, Todt) left, they were still very good in 2007-2008. And dropped back only after regulation changes. Also RB is a well-funded team and should have the ability to keep together a good engineering team.

Ferrari – I think the Ferrari chassis wasn't that bad in 2014, but badly let down by power unit. It was okayish early in the year, when Alonso got several 4th and 3rd (China) places. But then fell behind. I operate on the hypothesis that 4 power unit manufacturers should be slightly closer in performance than they were in 2014. Which still sees Mercedes well in front, but also sees the likes of Force India (and Lotus) struggling to score that well.

I think rjbetty has a point that in the Vettel-Räikkönen scale Vettel should emerge ahead in the second half of the year, while the first half is very close. Also Kimi is likely to be on his way out of the team, which could hinder Finn's progress later in the year (though it didn't in 2009).

I do not think James Allison singlehandedly can do miracles, but the turmoil in the team makes a bit uneasy. Also Ferrari has had many problems with in-season development. They actually started out well in 2013 (two wins), but dropped back. As mentioned, they started out just about okayish in 2014, but dropped off.

In comparison to McLaren, the other team in "restructuring phase". Ferrari definitely had the better chassis in 2013-2014 of the two. And in 2015 McLaren is very likely to have less power advantage (if any) over Ferrari than they did in 2014. But about chassis - will it stay that was in 2015, or return to 2011-12 with McLaren having more potential in the chassis? To avoid basing predictions on the past year, it might just well be so. But I can't say I am convinced in this either way!

Ferrari's restructing has been described as mess with many people getting sacked. But in which way is McLaren's restructuring better? How can we evaluate, whose restructuring works better than the other? Or we just have to wait and see...? It is all very complicated - both Ferrari and McLaren are one of the hardest teams to predict for 2015, and we have to predict how well they are restructuring while not seeing into their teams everyday activities.

Williams – their in-season development rate was fantastic in 2014. Early in the year they were collecting more like 5th and 7th places, but late in the year consistent 3rds and 4ths. Will their remain in the latter form or drop to former?

Bottas is good, but I do not think his advantage over Massa has been very significant. The main advantage Bottas has over Massa is consistency – FM crashed out on the first lap a few times in 2014. I expect the same to continue – Bottas to be his usual heidfeldesque points machine, and Massa blow hot and cold and score less.

McLaren – having an Alonso-Button line-up is really a boost for their WCC chances. They'll have a worse engine (than in 2014) next year, but closer co-operation. McLaren also should have hit its low with chassis development and if anything, it should be slightly better. Alonso can really be a very good points machine, like he was at Ferrari. We know Button is a good points machine, but Alonso even more so. Thinking about it, teams vying for P2 in WCC should take them into account, but it could be that they'll more likely hit their stride in 2016 rather than 2015.

There is some conflicting information about Honda PU. I do not think many expect them to match Mercedes, but it is open whether they are better or worse than Renault or Ferrari. Can we expect McLaren to "stride back" or will they become like BAR-Honda - team with "unfulfilled potential". I think regardless of power unit side, unless Honda is absolutely rubbish, McLaren has more to worry about the chassis side. Despite crap PU, Ferrari still beat them in WCC last year.

Like Ferrari, McLaren has been restructuring. But McLaren has also its own problems, which - unlike Ferrari - have gone under the radar. There has also been some sacking, like M.Whitmarsh, Sam Michael, and others. And Ron Dennis' own position is not secure. A lot depends on the chemistry in the all-new package. This chemistry is hard to predict. Somehow Williams got it all right for this year - Pat Symonds, and others, and car development was brilliant.

Force India – They have been reported to have money troubles for a few years now. It is not like Lotus or Sauber are in a better state, probably even worse. So I don't see a reason, why Force India should specifically struggle more now than before – there should always be practical reason for that one. Also FI still has the best engine (Mercedes) and this fact alone should propel them into lower points at least, and certainly above STR and Sauber. Just like happened in 2014.

Lotus – they lost so much key-staff in the 2013-14 off-season that in my mind they are pretty much in the same place as McLaren/Ferrari have been: restructuring. In addition they lack funds to complete re-structuring. I also suspect they lack money to properly develop the car.

Let's recall 2014. They started out terribly in Australia, and then gradually improved. Grosjean was competing for P10 in China before DNF. And then suddenly fifth on the grid in Spain! Finished eight. What happened then? Lotus dropped to nowhere. I do not know what happened, but I suspect they lacked money to develop the car. They could not build on Spain performance and had a worse season than Toro Rosso despite the same engine.

So this story should be like Force India – a team with financial troubles and struggles to develop the car, but the best engine helps them somewhat, to be in midfield and sometimes even higher.

Toro Rosso – they actually impressed me in 2014. Despite power deficit were competing for minor points fairly often. James Key has helped them. They are a really solid midfield team and with comparable power unit could beat both Force India and Lotus. But as it is they have a worse PU.

It is hard to tell how talented Sainz jr and Verstappen are, but my gut feeling is that they aren't quite a match to, say, 2013 version of Ricciardo-Vergne, which IMO was perhaps the best STR line-up of all times (two good drivers in their second full season of F1). I think STR is likely to be a Q3 visitor especially on street circuits. PU deficit is less important there and those circuits suited Toro Rosso last year – Vergne retired from P5 at Monaco. I am unsure, how well they can capitalize on points in the wet though. Remember, Vergne was absolutely excellent in the wet.

I might have slightly underestimated them in my prediction though. But that's because with Lotus getting better engines points will be harder to come... as there is likely to be one stronger rival ahead.

Sauber – I like Ericsson, but really think he does not amount to much. At best at Gutierrez level, but that's not saying much. I think Nasr might be slightly better than Ericsson. Sauber designed really good and fast cars in 2012-2013, but like Lotus have lost a lot of key staff. But they have the same PU as Ferrari. And as you remember, in 2012 and late in 2013 Sauber competed a lot against Ferrari on track. If they could do it now, they could compete for regular points again despite crap PU. But I have my doubts that they still have that quality in engineering department.

Drivers are not that good. On odd occasion could get into Q3 though. I got the impression during 2014 Sauber slightly improved – late in the year Sutil already was in Q3 in USA! I think the team has more in them than they scored in 2014, but are unlikely to be a revelation of the year.

jens

28th December 2014, 14:08

Oh dear, a lot of guesswork and nothing concrete.:D I am amazed I am so fond of all those guessworks before each season, despite having only little guidelines and always lack of information of what to expect. And just guess with some criterias that I can possibly use

In a way all teams are in a constant change. There is some restructuring going on all the time, sometimes more, sometimes less, depending on situation. Before 2014 it was impossible to tell, how good effect would Williams' restructuring have. Now the question is how will it last, because if you go well, rich teams want to hire your staff.

Also the financial situation is not consistent - and money will not guarantee you anything, as Ferrari and McLaren can currently tell. They are currently in the range of Toyota and BAR/Honda of the 2000s! And sometimes underfunded teams have that quality and punch above their weight, like Lotus and Sauber did in 2012-2013. Interestingly in 2014 no underfunded teams could surprise - they were all left behind. I think Williams is in a better shape than any of FI, Lotus or Sauber.

Looking at history, often some logic and trends can be found. But they still do not tell properly about future trends. And we can truly analyze only in retrospect.

jens

28th December 2014, 14:16

And so with that, I will give my refined thoughts on the team's 2015 prospects as I have thought more about it since my first post.

Well, remember how in-depth we were analysing a year ago. Long-long posts and thoughts about different variables, which could influence the season. So how right did we get it?:D Now doing the same (mistake) again. :D

jens

28th December 2014, 14:32

I see McLaren in a group of 5 teams behind Mercedes, any one of them can finish 2nd and anyone can finish 6th, and it's all a case of musical chairs who's where!

Well, this seems to be the hot point in current discussions. What is going to happen behind Mercedes?

I personally expect Red Bull to be second, and definitely see no chance they could be as low as 6th! I may give some guidelines as why I think so.

* New regs always enlarges the gaps. In 1994 Schumacher/Benetton could lap the field bar Senna early in the year. In 1998 McLaren could lap, in 2009 Brawn. The difference with 2014 is that in-season development of some very important components wasn't banned... Power unit disparities should get closer or at worst remain the same. Which is good news for RBR and Ferrari, because on that front it can't get worse for them...

* If there is one chassis in the field to have taken the fight to Mercedes last year, it was Red Bull. Red Bull's team is about to lose its stride, but they are still very good and remain so for now at least. Though Williams got close, Red Bull was the only one to be even a remote MB challenger in the wet and on street circuits. Which is a sign of an excellent chassis.

* Williams is a less funded team than Red Bull. In my opinion Williams car package in 2014 was every bit a match to Red Bull over a full year. But Williams is a team, who is not able to capitalize on points so well. Inferior strategies, consistency, pitstops, driver performance (except Bottas). I don't see the depth in Williams to capitalize so well and beat Red Bull. And less-funded teams always have less chances to perform like a top team. They can punch above their weight on odd occasion (Lotus 2012-13), but they struggle to truly overcome top teams in the long run. Even Lotus didn't deliver as much as they could in 2012-13 in my view. They got 2 wins, but chassis was better than that IMHO... For example in my view Lotus car was better than Ferrari's in 2012-2013, but on both occasions finished behind in WCC. Because their all-around team work was inferior and not as refined to properly capitalize on car excellence. Let alone Sauber in 2012, who lost lots of points despite getting 4 podiums.

* Red Bull should have a better pre-season testing than in 2014. They really lost a lot with all those Renault engine kabooms, which at least somewhat hurt them, even if they still came out of it fine to finish second. But I think Red Bull had to make a few more compromises to their package than they might have ideally liked and they ran in a bit of a "safe mode" to save engines as reliability was very important. Vettel ran out of engines before the end of the year anyway.

* The main questionmark about Red Bull is Kvyat... Though Vettel was some way behind Ricciardo in points last year and it did not hinder Red Bull in WCC at all. So unless Kvyat completely flops, they should be fine.

* It can be difficult to choose between Williams, Ferrari and McLaren. And depending on mood I could choose any order there.

jens

28th December 2014, 14:57

7.Force India
Another one quite hard to call maybe. You see, Force India always defy my expectations by proving competitive time and time again.

Don't worry mate. ONE DAY surely Force India will have a bad season. Or perhaps they will get a new (rich) owner and become a genuine top team instead? :D Who knows.

It is funny to predict something to happen each year. Yeah I think it will happen now. Okay, next year. Okay, then next. Last time either Ferrari or McLaren won a title in 2008. People surely think one day they should win again! Two legendary teams, how long should we wait!

But it is not that simple. Ferrari had to wait 21 years for WDC. Same with Force India. There is often a certain flow and period logic in F1. I think Force India will drop (or rise) if there is some major shift in F1 variables. We had such shift before 2014, but Force India happened to get their hands on the right power unit. Just like Williams by the way, who climbed out of hell with that one. What is the next shift? Or Force India will be sold and under new ownership life will be different? Just like it was before Force India and Jordan GP went into bankrupt and the team was nowhere as Midland or Spyker.

Remember, Sauber was always very consistent. They were either 6th, 7th or 8th in WCC all through from 1993 till... 2005 (and slightly higher in 01-02). When they got bought by BMW and rose into top3! I see current Force India something like Sauber back in the day. Not a great team, but good enough to stay on the radar.

And now look at Sauber. Now finally in 2014, after 20 years of existence, they have had a truly-truly rubbish season. Finally! So long had to wait for it.:p:

Tazio

28th December 2014, 18:09

Just like it was before Force India and Jordan GP went into bankrupt and the team was nowhere as Midland or Spyker.

Sorry to go OT here but I just read that EJ is the 10th richest sports figure in the world, worth $475,000,000 . He must have done a good job of protecting his personal assets when Jordan Gp went to crap.

henners88

1st January 2015, 11:50

My simple prediction is Mercedes will carry their power into this coming season and again we will see Lewis Hamilton as World Champion.

However I am going back some years now to my days as an Alonso fan and now he is back at McLaren I fancy seeing him succeed. If Honda arrive in Oz with all their gremlins ironed out I would like nothing more than to see Hamilton and Alonso going head to head and Fernando winning his third WDC. It would be fantastic to see the unfinished business he started in Woking in 2007 be turned into a success story. Go Fernando!

journeyman racer

2nd January 2015, 10:07

Or he could go to an Australian high school and unlearn how to speak English. Great sig by the way, with a sig like that a man wouldn't need to post anything at all.
LOL Here, read it again sushi muncher!

jens

3rd January 2015, 19:49

So based on latest news it looks like somebody found a loophole and engine development will be allowed in 2015. Well, interesting. Can't say, how much this would affect the season. I still think Mercedes has most depth in the R&D section, but perhaps claims that all four power unit manufacturers should be closer to each other, has a stronger point now.

Other issue is how will this in-season development affect engine performance, since they have to use only 4 (!) power units for the whole season. So any development can really affect the last or two engines? I guess the effect of this rule change will actually be more prominent for the 2016 season, which would be another guesstimate altogether.

rjbetty

4th March 2015, 17:55

Now that testing is over and we have more information, I'd like to drag up this prediction and revise it.

I know it's surely far too early but I wanted to have a quick look at how the form might sorta turn out for 2015!

1.MERCEDES
No change here, 2015 could be to 1989 what 2014 has been to 1988. Hopefully if Nico wins the title, he will be less desperate to do whatever it takes and it should go Hamilton's way from now on.

2.MCLAREN-HONDA
My early prediction for McLaren is a strong 2nd! Hard to imagine now but I feel it could be like 2007 compared to 2006. Peter Prodomou and Alonso should have a good effect. This is assuming Honda have got it right. Ron Dennis is happy it seems but I have no idea if he has an idea... I think McLaren may have lost out badly this year due to not having latest software etc from Mercedes, accounting for their gap. All this should see a fair improvement maybe. I actually think they could be a dark horse if the Honda is good, but maybe the team still needs too much work to do just yet.

3.FERRARI
Most likely to be 3rd maybe. Changes are afoot and I expect an improvement on the chassis side due to James Allison. Kimi shouldn't do so badly and Vettel also shouldn't be any worse. Big question mark over the PU since they made the engine guy a scapegoat. Who exactly is in charge of that now???

4.RED BULL-RENAULT
I've read rumours that Renault aren't able to make much improvement unless they use politics to get their way. With Adrian Newey going, can they close the gap that much? Regardless of Vettel's 2014, I don't think Kvyat can match either that or Ricciardo in 2015 in terms of points. But then we said the same thing about Ricciardo...

5.WILLIAMS-MERCEDES
A tough one. Williams have followed up a good season with a catastrophic one, but the reasons for 2013 being bad don't seem to apply this time as the staff who made 2014 good seem to be sticking around. Bottas can only improve as can Massa now he's settled in (or will he go down the slippery slope). The question mark though is money.

6.LOTUS-MERCEDES
The 6th team of a clear top 6. Mercedes is an instant benefit, a 2nd year of this regs should be easier, and Maldonado should surely improve on 2014. Should score much more points in 2015.

7.FORCE INDIA-MERCEDES
Oh dear. They really look like being in trouble soon... Unable to develop this year with serious money issues. I think it will finally catch up on them in 2015 and will start heading the way of Sauber. Expect them to drop back in one form or another.

8.TORO ROSSO-RENAULT
Pretty sure being Red Bull's Jr team shouldn't see them sink without a trace. Will be same as usual probably.

9.SAUBER-FERRARI
Oh dear. Well at least Sauber have improved lately but with Ericsson and Nasr they ain't going anywhere. Still stuck with Ferrari power. Surely can grab at least a point.

Others - Not sure there will be any. Yikes!

All in all, Mercedes should win again, as looking at the possible challengers, no-one seems in a position to close the gap enough, at least for 2015 anyway. Though there does seem to be interesting potential for changes beyond the top 2 however.

1.MERCEDES - Well I still stand by this, and the clues are I could be right that the gap has even increased rather than closed significantly. Hamilton has had break-ups and breakdowns to contend with - like 2011... Though Hammy also had all the problems in testing last year while Nico got the race distances, plus then Melbourne too, so maybe Lewis still can come out on top?

2.WILLIAMS - MERCEDES
I can't understand why I only put them 5th not 3rd in my original post. I long regarded them as consolidating on 2014, and have had them doing so on Grand Prix 2 thru the winter.

3.FERRARI
At the time I didn't know the PU situation, and took a total guess they would fall back on power. However it seems they have 80bhp to gain, which closes them up to Mercedes. As for the drivers, I still stand by Vettel beating Kimi.

4.RED BULL - RENAULT
I'm sure I remember saying I think Red Bull will slip back a bit, and even out of the top 3. But it seems I have them 3rd in my prediction...? I stand by that they will drop, and at least not be as clear a 2nd as they were last year, Looks like Renault have only gained 30bhp over the winter, while the figures for Merc look to be around 50-60bhp and 80bhp respectively (though I don't know how much of theirs will be used at the first race). Renault may have another 40bhp available for Silverstone apparently??

5.MCLAREN - HONDA
OK, so maybe they aren't ready to be 2nd best just yet. I do believe if the Honda engine was ready and sorted, the chassis is good enough to vchallenge for 2nd int he championship. Bith 2014 drivers say it's different and a good car, when Jenson was saying pre-2013/2014 they weren't in a great place (so what he says seems accurate).

6.LOTUS - MERCEDES
No idea whether they can be like 2013 or simply like Force India 2014 still, but they don't seem bad at all.

7.TORO ROSSO - RENAULT
I am going to stand by my winter thoughts that Toro Rosso will have a great car and can consistently get in the top 10, though I didn't seem to say that in my post...

8.FORCE INDIA - MERCEDES
Oh well, looks like I was "on the money" (ouch) by saying Force India's financial trouble will finally and inevitably catch up with them this year, just like Marussia and Caterham's did. The worst season since 2009 beckons, and maybe won't beat their 2011 points total (60-70pts). However, they have a 2015 car, and if it's quick it's quick, but money will just cause too much of a problem.

9.SAUBER - FERRARI
Convinced they are running a teaspoon of fuel in testing. Hard to call, but money and drivers see me putting them just behind Force India.

10.MANOR F1 - FERRARI
An incredible story as they look to maybe make it. A slap in the face to Bernie and the fans who say they contribute nothing, as I believe that is totally wrong. I will watch them with great interest to see if they can rebuild and put things in place to strengthen and move forward. Will be great to see them get the prize money they earned (sorry Force India).

However what can we expect pace wise? They won't have made great progress with the chassis. Bianchi qualified on average something like +3.9sec off Rosberg last year, so maybe add 1sec to that for the chassis. The engine deal (a miracle itself) is only the horrid 2014 engine though - a further 50-60bhp down on the Merc gains this year, so maybe say 0.7sec?? Then Will Stevens won't be as quick as Bianchi, maybe almost 1sec worse since he's a rookie?

So there you have say, 2.5sec off loss to add to 3.9, and suddenly it looks like a struggle to qualify, But they are there and it's a start.

jens

5th March 2015, 10:29

Based on winter testing it looks like Mercedes is well out in front with Red Bull, Williams and Ferrari quite close to each other behind them.

If I had to pick someone to finish second in WCC, I think I am still inclined to take Red Bull as the more complete and consistent team than Williams. As for Ferrari, winter testing has been promising, but for years they have had problems with in-season development and I am unsure, how will they manage it this time around. But they should be within a shot.

Behind them. Lotus could be next on no-mans-land. Toro Rosso their usual self with Sauber perhaps also opening their point-score this year. Interestingly, I'd still pick Force India to beat both STR and Sauber in the constructors. They have had a troubled start and lack money, but they have the superb Mercedes engine. I remember Sauber in 2013, who was in big financial trouble and had a bad car in the start of the season, but still developed fine.

McLaren-Honda? The most mysterious guess, but I think I'd still put them to finish fifth overall - ahead of Lotus. But the start of the season could be harder for them than the end part.

So let's see what happens in reality.:)

rjbetty

5th March 2015, 17:40

Yep, not long to go now. :D

anfield5

5th March 2015, 19:48

Triumph

7th March 2015, 14:33

Hamilton to win the championship, regardless of how close the opposition are in terms of outright speed. Rosberg slightly more troubled than Hamilton about the opposition catching up. Perhaps frustration affecting Rosbergs performance this year (still a decent number of wins though).

Bottas and Ricciardo equally impressive this year, with perhaps a first win for Bottas.

Improved performance from Vettel, Raikkonen and Grosjean (podium finishes, or perhaps a win if Mercedes have problems).

A strong performance from Kvyat. Enough to surprise some of the critics.

A major controversy involving Alonso (once we get the full story about his testing crash).

Mia 01

7th March 2015, 23:44

Kimi or Nico R to win the WDC. Fernando perhaps back for the European season.

Tazio

8th March 2015, 00:16

Seb will beat Kimi mercilessly! :rolleyes:

rjbetty

13th March 2015, 00:36

Since I enjoy doing this sort of stuff, here's how I think qualifying will average out for 2015 - one night before the season starts!

1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg - 0.03
3.Bottas - 0.78
4.Ricciardo -0.90
5.Vettel - 0.91
6.Massa - 0.94
7.Kvyat - 1.00
8.Raikkonen - 1.10
9.Alonso - 1.45
10.Button - 1.56
11.Grosjean - 1.66
12.Verstappen - 1.71
13.Maldonado - 1.84
14.Sainz - 1.90
15.Hulkenberg - 2.48
16.Perez -2.62
17.Nasr - 2.71
18.Ericsson - 2.86
19.Merhi - 7.2
20.Stevens - 7.4

I still think Hamilton really has a tiny edge on Rosberg in qualifying, as shown by 11-8 in 2013. Rosberg qualified brilliantly last year, but even so I feel he was ahead more down to issues and mistakes from Hamilton rather than Lewis just not being fast enough.

Kvyat was quicker than Vergne in qualifying last year(!) so I think he could surprise on some Saturdays.

I don't think Ferrari will quite live up to pre-season hype, but will definitely be more solid than 2014.

If the Honda engine was sorted, I think McLaren would have a great shot at 2nd in the WCC, but the engine isn't sorted.

Lotus are very hard to call - were they sandbagging. The drivers say the chassis is much better, so with the engine should see them close behind Williams-Ferrari-Red Bull. But I don't know...

Sauber are hard to call. They were quick in testing, but then so they were in 2010, only to disappoint come season proper.

Really worried about Manor with a 2014 engine and chassis, and worse drivers...

jens

13th March 2015, 09:37

If the Honda engine was sorted, I think McLaren would have a great shot at 2nd in the WCC, but the engine isn't sorted.

Very optimistic! McLaren is about where Lotus was a year ago. And engines are not "sorted out" like that. Honda isn't a magician, who jumps from the back of the grid to the front in no time. Which is what nobody else manages. Even Mercedes didn't manage it. They were midfield in 2010-2012, and then gradually improved to become a frontrunner in 2014.

I don't get the McLaren-Honda hype. It must be based on 1988, not 2015. I know people desperately want someone to take the fight to Mercedes, and now hope maybe McLaren - the new package - can do it. But the world doesn't work like that.

jens

13th March 2015, 11:47

I wanted to make one more post. This time about Ferrari v McLaren. I remember in winter I made one post pondering about the situation.

In comparison to McLaren, the other team in "restructuring phase". Ferrari definitely had the better chassis in 2013-2014 of the two. And in 2015 McLaren is very likely to have less power advantage (if any) over Ferrari than they did in 2014. But about chassis - will it stay that was in 2015, or return to 2011-12 with McLaren having more potential in the chassis? To avoid basing predictions on the past year, it might just well be so. But I can't say I am convinced in this either way!

Ferrari's restructing has been described as mess with many people getting sacked. But in which way is McLaren's restructuring better? How can we evaluate, whose restructuring works better than the other? Or we just have to wait and see...? It is all very complicated - both Ferrari and McLaren are one of the hardest teams to predict for 2015, and we have to predict how well they are restructuring while not seeing into their teams everyday activities.
Like Ferrari, McLaren has been restructuring. But McLaren has also its own problems, which - unlike Ferrari - have gone under the radar. There has also been some sacking, like M.Whitmarsh, Sam Michael, and others. And Ron Dennis' own position is not secure. A lot depends on the chemistry in the all-new package. This chemistry is hard to predict. Somehow Williams got it all right for this year - Pat Symonds, and others, and car development was brilliant.

Anyway. What I wanted to say. Both Ferrari and McLaren have been restructuring. But for a long time the hype has been all in favour of McLaren. Honda, Ron Dennis, Alonso - this combination must succeed, look at the names! While Ferrari has been bashed - they are in turmoil, they have lost their best asset (Alonso), now they are a mismanaged team and two bad drivers, who can't drive like Alonso!

The hype was notable. I very nearly went along with it. In retrospect I can say thankfully I predicted Ferrari to finish ahead of McLaren this year! Whatever else happens this year, I am most relieved about that.:)

Why was McLaren's restructuring considered to be better than Ferrari's? It lacked evidence except people's emotional investment. In reality - there has been nothing specifically wrong with Ferrari's restructuring. They have got rid of "dead wood". In contrast McLaren - what have they done so fantastically? They got rid of Martin Whitmarsh and Sam Michael? But it looks like they were just scapegoats, they weren't the key reason, why McLaren wasn't winning (any more).

Rollo

13th March 2015, 12:36

Sauber will not survive to Round 2 in Bahrain.
Lotus to be re-bought by Renault before year's end.
Force India will make it to Round 9 Mexico but will not show up at Round 10 in Abu Dhabi.

rjbetty

13th March 2015, 14:55

I wanted to make one more post. This time about Ferrari v McLaren. I remember in winter I made one post pondering about the situation.

Anyway. What I wanted to say. Both Ferrari and McLaren have been restructuring. But for a long time the hype has been all in favour of McLaren. Honda, Ron Dennis, Alonso - this combination must succeed, look at the names! While Ferrari has been bashed - they are in turmoil, they have lost their best asset (Alonso), now they are a mismanaged team and two bad drivers, who can't drive like Alonso!

The hype was notable. I very nearly went along with it. In retrospect I can say thankfully I predicted Ferrari to finish ahead of McLaren this year! Whatever else happens this year, I am most relieved about that.:)

Why was McLaren's restructuring considered to be better than Ferrari's? It lacked evidence except people's emotional investment. In reality - there has been nothing specifically wrong with Ferrari's restructuring. They have got rid of "dead wood". In contrast McLaren - what have they done so fantastically? They got rid of Martin Whitmarsh and Sam Michael? But it looks like they were just scapegoats, they weren't the key reason, why McLaren wasn't winning (any more).

Hey Jens, yeah you're right. But I was going by 'not judging too much by the previous season. e.g. in 2007 McLaren made a good step from not winning a race to taking the WCC "on the road".

I never thought they could challenge Mercedes, except maybe the odd race if Honda hit the ground running, which was a big unknown. The chassis appears pretty good and the 2014 drivers speak well of it compared to last year. Seems Newey's old deputy Peter Prodromou has done a pretty good job.

Red Bull have lost him, and early signs from practice seems Red Bull may not make 2nd in the WCC, so I will have got that right. Also about Force India struggling, Sauber's testing pace not being at all real, and Toro Rosso maybe looking quite good.

Mia 01

13th March 2015, 19:54

Its of no use to comment on MacLaren for now.

Tazio

14th March 2015, 16:45

Its of no use to comment on MacLaren for now.

Well excuse us.! :rolleyes:

CNR

15th March 2015, 00:56

Toro Rosso may have a win or two this year

Tazio

15th March 2015, 08:12

Its no use
Seb will beat Kimi mercilessly! :rolleyes: agree!

BDunnell

15th March 2015, 13:53

My main predictions for 2015: viewing figures the world over on the complete slide, and the FIA and Ecclestone doing nothing about it. To have F1, the WRC and WTCC each dominated by a single team is a massive turn-off.

jens

17th March 2015, 10:17

Soo…
First race is over. I’ll make a slight mix of expectations so far, impressions from first race, and projections for the rest of the year.

Mercedes - where expected to be. Nothing to say really. It is going to be like 2014 for them.

Ferrari - about where expected to be. Due to the struggles of RB even look relatively slightly better off. However, I do feel Ferrari needs to capitalize on street/twistier circuits compared to Williams, who is going to be strong in places, where engine power counts more! So with Williams and possibly Red Bull being strong, Ferrari will not get onto the podium everywhere, but they could get top 6 finishes very consistently and amass good points by the end of the year.

Williams - about where expected to be. They look well-positioned to challenge for P2 in the constructors. It will be down to consistency and maximizing potential/results, which Williams has been often lacking, but we will see this year.

Red Bull - worse than expected. If they are about a match to Toro Rosso, there is something not quite right and it is not about the power unit only! The departures of Prodromou and Newey might have slightly shocked/destabilized the team. But still - they are a well-funded team and far be it from me to write them off. Plus in the past they have had stunning in-season development. Plus Ricciardo is a driver, who has proven to have the ability to score good points very consistently, like Alonso. I think Red Bull is capable of more than what they showed. But we need a few more race weekends to judge, where exactly they sit compared to Ferrari and Williams.

Then it is good to see that we have a strong midfield. Sauber, Force India, Toro Rosso, Lotus - no-one is going to be nowhere this year like Sauber and to a lesser extent Lotus were last year. So all of them will score and compete well!

Sauber - last year 0, this year already 14 pts on board with a single race! Wow! Looking at long-term implications, this may have been their best race of the year. And with other teams improving, they’ll have trouble keeping up. But good thing is they are better than last year and won’t give up without a fight even if they still end up 8th or 9th in WCC.

Force India - worse than expected, but then again I also didn’t foresee them having such a trouble pre-season with almost not testing at all. They did very well to maximize on the problems on others and score 7 points in Australia. They should have an upward development curve during the season, even if overall will get nowhere near their 2014 score.

Toro Rosso - I thought rookie line-up should at least somewhat hold them back, but this wasn’t the case. Or the James Key designed car is so good almost anyone would look good in it. Which is also a possibility. In Australia they looked better in qualifying trim than in race trim. Also looking at 2014, they had a tendency to be stronger on street circuits than elsewhere. They should be pretty regular point contenders this year, but exact WCC position is open.

Lotus - about where expected to be though suffered massive unluck in Australia to be out already on Lap 1. However, they should be pretty regular points contenders and I would not rule out a possibility of a few great weekends among them, where they challenge for podium. I’d say a strong contender for P5 in WCC.

McLaren - well… embarrassing and worse than expected. Really. They will improve. So later in the season they should have the ability to fight against midfield teams as well. But top teams are too far out of reach to catch them. And they’ll have trouble achieving that P5 in the constructors as well, where I projected them to be.

A FONDO

17th March 2015, 12:39

jens

17th March 2015, 13:01

Well, this is just the first race and Albert Park is a specific track.

Ferrari are renovated and full of enthusiasm and usually in these conditions things go easily well, but it won't be for long, others won't just stay and watch them. Especially RBR, they are not muppets and later on will get to grips for sure.

Well, let me put it this way. There is sure a lot unclear between Ferrari, Williams and Red Bull, how the rest of the season pans out. But these should be the teams, who can claim to have a shot at second in WCC.

Ferrari has started well, but I have to say they are going to have their hands full fending off Williams on faster circuits. Let's see in Malaysia. If Ferrari can still if not beat then at least fight against Williams, they will have done well.

A FONDO

17th March 2015, 13:10

rjbetty

1st May 2015, 11:27

With the opening 4 flyaway races done and dusted, and a break till the European season, it's time to embarrass some of my fellow forumers!

Remember this? :p

Read some comments above about Ferrari/ Allison's package possibly 2nd? I think this is wishful thinking. I read an article a while back that suggested that the Ferrari could actually be slower next year

As for my predictions, my PRE testing thoughts are in post 1 page 1. Bear in mind this was before the 2014 season had even finished, so be kind to me.

My POST testing Predictions were pretty much

1.Mercedes
2.Williams
3.Ferrari
4.Red Bull
5.McLaren
6.Lotus
7.Toro Rosso
8.Force India
9.Sauber

Given that I wasn't to know what had happened on the competitive front regarding engines, I think I did pretty well.

My early McLaren assumption was based on Honda starting off pretty well. I still feel the McLaren chassis is quite good. Though Melbourne was shocking, the engine was like 200bhp down, and very rough calculations correcting this would I think, have put them, say behind Williams territory i.e. around 5th. And that doesn't include the possibility the car has more time to be found through honing and setup, which I guess they haven't done since everything has been about just actually running.

I wasn't to know Ferrari had made great strides with their PU, especially ERS(?), and it was a total guess they might actually slip back a bit on the PU. That's why my early prediction of 5th or even 6th in the WCC came to be.

Hey I actually got Red Bull falling out of the top 3 right!

Williams I thought would shade it for 2nd, but I was wrong.

I do actually think that, apart from Ferrari's form, Mercedes has actually pulled out an even bigger gap over the rest.

Toro Rosso looking stronger, bad engine and rookie drivers taken into account, and comparing better to Red Bull seems correct. I was completely convinced Verstappen would sink not swim, just as Raikkonen did in 2001 when Mosley and co tried to ban him!

Lotus was a big unknown, but I eventually put them not far from where they are now.

Sauber I got wrong, just as much as Ferrari, but what's the common link there?

Force India struggling and around 2.5sec off the pace was something I feel I got right.

Overall definitely one of my best prediction seasons given I didn't know the competitive order of engines. Makes up for my shocking 2013 (McLaren winning title, Sauber winning races etc). :p

EDIT: Massive congratulations to Manor! Wish they could get a 2015 engine. Look what it's done for Ferrari and Sauber! I got my Manor expectation wrong too as I had them not even making it; I was hoping for the best but prepared for the worst.

rjbetty

1st May 2015, 11:33

Williams' car is very good, I think better than Ferrari but as I said in another topic their drivers aren't complete. Massa has proven to be nothing special and very often falls down even after a good start. Bottas is inexperienced and lacks that aggression needed for really big things.

About Bottas, I am starting to feel concerned. I totally think he is/will go on to be better than Hulkenberg, but he too just seems too conservative. I'm a fan and set a lot of stock on what Sir Frank Williams has said about him e.g. as good as anyone who's sat in a Williams car (think about that).

Mia 01

1st May 2015, 18:55

for certain, as on other blogs, people living their Dreams. But posters on bigger blogs feels like their predictions could make their whish to happen. I Watch see and laugh.

anfield5

5th May 2015, 00:24

About Bottas, I am starting to feel concerned. I totally think he is/will go on to be better than Hulkenberg, but he too just seems too conservative. I'm a fan and set a lot of stock on what Sir Frank Williams has said about him e.g. as good as anyone who's sat in a Williams car (think about that).

This is the biggest compliment any driver could get, as good as the likes of Coulthard, Boutsen and Patrese...

All joking aside though, if Frank has stated that Bo77as is as good as the likes of Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet etc. He should be able to look back on a career full of race wins and titles. Time will tell

Tazio

5th May 2015, 03:05

It is really hard to gage Bottas right now because his teammate is a hard guy to pin down at times. Felipe is fast. That little guy is as fast as anyone when he is on his game. The problem is that he is very inconsistent. I still believe that (with the exception of the first few races after he came back from his injury) he is as fast as anyone, at least he used to be. Beating him convincingly when he is in a car that suits him is no small accomplishment, and I think Kimi will attest to that!
JMHO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzkUNR5sYQs :angel:

rjbetty

18th September 2015, 02:49

Right so how do the predictions stack up now?

I will compare my predictions for 2014, made after Abu Dhabi 2014, then after pre-season testing had finished, and how they actually turned out by now (Sept 2015). I will post both predicted WCC positions (late 2014, then before Melbourne) followed by their current actual standing:

MERCEDES - 1st 1st 1st
Always had them pulling out a bigger gap. They kind of have in some ways.

FERRARI - 6th 3rd 2nd
I initially didn't know the engine had made such strides and thought they might drop back even further. My early prediction was before the "new" team had really settled in too.

WILLIAMS - 3rd 2nd 3rd
Was convinced they'd build on 2014 to be 2nd best but Ferrari have far overtaken them.

RED BULL - 4th 4th 4th
Pretty much as expected, dropping out of the top 3.

FORCE INDIA - 7th 8th 5th
As testing approached it was increasingly clear financial problems were finally catching up, as I had believed inevitable for a long time, yet they have still developed beyond my expectations. I had the early season pinned just right but not the later half.

LOTUS - MERCEDES - 5th 6th 6th
Always a tough one to call but I guess pretty much where I imagined they'd be.

TORO ROSSO - 8th 7th 7th
I expected them to be closer to Red Bull and a pretty strong season but still they exceeded my expectations.

SAUBER - 9th 9th 8th
I was very pessimistic all along, especially with new drivers, but it was only in Melbourne I realised Sauber have much improved.

MCLAREN - HONDA - 2nd 5th 9th
Oh dear, I don't think I ever imagined it would be this bad. As in 2013 and 2014 I believed the hype before wising up just in time to dump them from my FGP team.

MANOR - FERRARI (2014) - N/A N/A 10th
They've already far exceeded my expectations by amazingly just being there.

jens

26th September 2015, 13:50

Right now I am not predicting 2015, because that would need a precise analysis. But if I am going to fantasize some kind of a general view or picture, what is going on on race track, it would be like this:

- Mercedes once again locks out the front row and leads the front of the field. And gun for the title!

Pretty much so, except we have had an odd surprise, where they are not THAT competitive (hello Singapore!), which never happened in 2014.

- Ricciardo is "best of the rest" again. Red Bull-Renault has slightly closed the gap, but ever-so-slightly and not enough to make a significant impact on the championship. But Ricciardo has to look behind, others are challenging. Kvyat is hit and miss. He has been fast in 2014, but not as convincing compared to Vergne as Ricciardo was.

RBR-Renault did not improve, probably even got worse. Retrospectively I didn't fully grasp, how underfunded Renault's effort is. RBR also does not have quite as stunning chassis post-Newey, but they are still strong enough.

- Ferrari with new James Allison design is a slightly better car, which enables them to have a better fight against Red Bull and Williams, but not enough for more than a few podiums. Unless luck goes their way, then more.

Improved, but much more than that. Most of the improvement comes from power unit, because chassis was decent already in 2014. I didn't consider such engine improvement possible in the "frozen" regs era, but Ferrari has done it!

- Williams is still good, but not as clearly second fastest as they have been in 2014. They have peaked. Still fight it out in close company with Red Bull and Ferrari.

Yeah, Williams is good, but has "peaked". Not quite second fastest car, like they often were in 2014, and struggles on street circuits.

Like, Ferrari, McLaren starts the hard journey back to better days. Chassis is slightly better after the rubbish they had in 2014 with the best PU. But still some way to go. Honda turns out to be slightly overrated. Not a match to Mercedes, though competitive with Renault and Ferrari engines. Alonso and Magnussen fight for minor points. Alonso is a committed fighter and sometimes drags the car to RBR-Ferrari-Williams camp. All the while he is an a long-term deal and tells to media that "2015 is a build-up year for McLaren-Honda, let's wait for 2016."

McLaren isn't even in minor points. "Wait for 2016 means more like "wait for 2017". The mountain is too much to climb.

- Lotus with Mercedes engines is better, thereabouts where Force India currently is. Minor points. Maldonado still crashes, Grosjean gets consistent points.

Yeah... Maldonado crashing is the safest prediction by the way. I certainly predict it for 2016 as well.:p:

- Force India does its usual trick by being good/decentish for half a year and struggling for half. Close fight with Lotus.

Yeah they usually have a season of two halves, but this time other way around - a slow start, because they barely had any winter testing running. Looks like having a good shot of beating Lotus though.

- Toro Rosso is not bad, but they are slightly held back by two (probably) rookie drivers, who struggle with setups. They get better in the second half of 2015.

Toro Rosso has actually exceeded my expectations. Their chassis is really good. Also I thought rookie line-up would hold them back more, just like STR didn't achieve much in 2012 with new Dan-JEV line-up.

- Sauber is slightly better and actually scores points. New era, new drivers, new sponsors. New building up for the future.

Actually scores points, with a bonus of a brilliant Australian GP, which has contributed to half of Sauber's overall points score!

jens

26th September 2015, 14:03

Lesson for me:

I mostly got wrong power unit predictions.

Ferrari improved a lot. Monza showed they must be relatively close to Mercedes now.

Renault actually got worse. They have had so many engine failures this year. Even last year was better than that.

Honda is not "competitive with Ferrari/Renault" at all. Of course considering Ferrari improved, it was hard to be competitive with them. But Honda isn't even competitive with the declining and underfinanced Renault...

--

So... It is POSSIBLE to improve power units in off-season like Ferrari proved. However, far from me be it to expect Honda to improve so much that they would be anywhere near the front next year. Why? Because they are TOO FAR behind. Isn't it something like 100+ horsepower?

Whatever Ferrari's heavily criticized situation was in 2014, it was still much-much better than Honda's today. Ferrari wasn't a backmarker in 2014, they were strongly in the points. Alonso scored ~150 points in Ferrari last year, as opposed to 11 in McLaren this year. Quite a clear difference isn't it? Ferrari improved A LOT from that level, but they are still well off Mercedes most of the time.

People considered 2014 Ferrari to be rubbish, but I think there is an all-new definition to what rubbish REALLY means. McLaren should be glad if they can compete with their "arch-rivals" Force India next year somewhere in midfield.:p: It would only be possible with a massively improved Honda power unit - massively improved means only 50 horsepower down on Mercedes, as opposed to 100+ hp! It WOULD BE a mammoth improvement, though it would still mean they are nowhere...

rjbetty

23rd October 2015, 04:33

With 4 races left I thought I'd drag up my Grand Prix 2 simulation season from last December and have a look at how it's compared to real life:

So that's it - here are the final standings

1.Hamilton - 334pts
2.Rosberg - 245pts
3.Bottas - 172pts
4.Ricciardo - 162pts
5.Alonso - 139pts
6.Button - 125pts
7.Kvyat - 90pts
8.Grosjean - 73pts
9.Massa - 72pts
10.Vettel - 55pts
11.Raikkonen - 50pts
12.Maldonado - 34pts
13.Hulkenberg - 21pts
14.Sainz - 19pts
15.Verstappen - 17pts
16.Perez - 8pts
17.Nasr - best finish 11th
18.Ericsson - best finish 11th

1.Mercedes - 579pts
2.McLaren - 264pts
3.Red Bull - 252pts
4.Williams - 244pts
5.Lotus - 107pts
6.Ferrari - 105pts
7.Toro Rosso - 36pts
8.Force India - 29pts
9.Sauber

Well it was a bit of a surprise to see Hamilton win the title by 89pts, yet given that in real life, Vettel sits 66pts down with Rosberg 73pts down - amazingly, this could actually happen. Rosberg has indeed been unluckier than Hamilton but only by 1dnf.

Bottas and Ricciardo finishing 3rd and 4th was optimistic indeed, though I did get it right that the Williams driver finished ahead of the RBR driver this season. However that is nothing compared to Alonso and Button 5th and 6th - and 2nd in the WCC - a pipe dream as they sit in a distant 9th on 19pts, looking likely to finish there.

Williams actually finished behind Red Bull because for the second season in a row, the game didn't seem to like Massa much and he just couldn't gather any big finishes.

Grosjean and Maldonado's points are actually not that different to real life. Grosjean got 2 podiums instead of 1 but otherwise they have only been slightly behind how the game churned them out.

Apart from McLaren, Ferrari were obviously the big mistake here. Vettel and Raikkonen only finished 10th and 11th in the WDC and only 6th in the WCC! This was based on their engine, rather than Renault's, actually getting slightly worse. To be fair, the Grand Prix 2 season did deal bad cards to Vettel in particular; stuff always seemed to go wrong when he was having a better race then nothing would happen when he was having a bad day. Vettel had more than his fair share of misfortune, a stark contrast to being in title contention in real life.

Toro Rosso scored 36pts, not far off their real life tally of 45pts. However in real life, they have proved rather more competitive than in the game. Force India were way off the mark and have way more points than the 30 scored here; indeed they are on their way to a best ever 5th overall. I underestimated their ability to develop and they also got a bad deal from the game i.e. things didn't go much their way.

Sauber have done much better in real life, scoring 36pts rather than the NONE in the game.

And now for the performance figures, in % (which means slightly more than 1sec per lap, per percent (haha) i.e. given that an F1 lap averages about 90sec. 1% = about 1.1sec

Qualifying
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.02
3.Alonso +0.93
4.Bottas +1.07
5.Button +1.12
6.Ricciardo +1.14
7.Massa +1.26
8.Kvyat +1.30
9.Vettel +1.54
10.Grosjean +1.73
11.Raikkonen +1.80
12.Maldonado +2.00
13.Verstappen +2.25
14.Sainz +2.29
15.Hulkenberg +2.48
16.Perez +2.69
17.Ericsson +3.80
18.Nasr +3.99

Race
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.09
3.Alonso +1.03
4.Bottas +1.09
5.Button +1.12
6.Ricciardo +1.19
7.Massa +1.48
8.Kvyat +1.52
9.Vettel +1.72
10.Grosjean +1.73
11.Raikkonen +2.07
12.Maldonado +2.20
13.Hulkenberg +2.24
14.Perez +2.30
15.Verstappen +2.42
16.Sainz +2.50
17.Ericsson +4.16
18.Nasr +4.46

Apart from Williams and Lotus, most performance predictions are some way off the mark.

2016 season coming soon!
Stay tuned for the 3rd edition of Grand Prix 2 season simulation, which will attempt to predict how the 2016 F1 season might turn out. Actually this could be a little bit like my version of FGP and I can have a go at being series promoter :D

Motorsport Forums Reporter: So rjbetty what can we expect from the 2016 Grand Prix 2 season?

RJBetty: A more professional and detailed analysis of things, including screenshots of major events. I will spread the running of the races out, so I can find time to follow events more closely in real time rather than just mostly using accelerated time to whizz through most of the races. This could also build anticipation between races.

MFR: So when can we expect the season to begin?

RJ: I would love to start right now! I have run several test seasons quickly. But I want this to be the best season yet - but crucuially not deviating from reality at all, or as little as I possibly can. Ideally it will run during the off season to give us something to keep interest up during the quiet winter period. I also hope that by resisting temptation to start now, we can also have all the official 2016 drivers present for the first time ever. Hopefully the remaining seats (1 Lotus/Renault, 2 Manor and 1 Haas) can all be confirmed before we start.

MFR: The 2015 season wasn't really considered a classic. What are your hopes for this season?

RJ: I know. However, it's pretty fair to say the real 2015 season hasn't been a classic either, so in that way it went quite well, as the all-important aim is to try and represent reality and try to keep fantasy and bias out of it as much as it's possible to.

For 2016 I am very excited. I am sure the field will be closer. Unless Mercedes are hiding performance, although they will still be at the front all the time, things should certainly be closer overall. We can look forward to McLaren surely improving and getting in the midfield mix, the 2 exciting Toro Rosso drivers developing on, and 2 backmarker outfits who look set to nip at the heels of the more established teams at least some of the time.

MFR: You say you have run several test seasons - do you have any spoilers and surprises you'd like to share?

RJ: Well I don't want to reveal too much, but there have been 3 different champions, a shock winner and a couple of surprise pole positions over the seasons. Massa has finally had his chance to shine with Bottas getting all the misfortune for a change. The backmarker teams are making several Q2 appearances (and in some rare cases even Q3 when others have problems).

MFR: Why aren't you using a more modern game, or at least Grand Prix 3 or 4?

RJ: I did use Grand Prix 4 during the 2013 off season. The fact that it produced Perez as champion with Vettel 8th showed that apart from being an appallingly glitch game, it's just not very good for this kind of thing. I would try Grand Prix 3 but I have been unable to run it on modern systems. I have not used R-Factor because of being very short of money (however things are slowly improving here so you never know). And after almost 20 years I find Grand Prix 2 still holds up very well, and I also know this game and have more experience with this one by far.

MFR: Thank you very much. We look forward to the 2016 preview season.

RJ: You're welcome. :)

jens

23rd October 2015, 10:52

Expecting the "field to close up". Well, classic rj.:D

One thing is pretty likely - a computer game simulation either doesn't give enough variables to replicate a real season (perhaps some older games, where result "orders" are very strict); or gives them too much. That's based on when I played different PC racing games in 2000s. A certain driver "getting all the unluck", Rosberg having countless of DNFs in your 2015 simulation, etc, shows a game will thrown in lots of outliers that doesn't happen in real life. In a game HAM, ROS, VET can easily have 4 DNFs in a row, but I think it for sure won't happen in real life LOL.

jens

23rd October 2015, 10:56

As for the field "closing up"... Or gaps in general... One day I was thinking about gaps for the 2016 F1 season.

The following expects Mercedes to be the field leader in both chassis and PU departments.

Mercedes
Ferrari ~0.5s
Williams ~1.0-1.5s
Red Bull ~1.0-1.5s (whatever the PU, it is likely to cost them 0.5-1s at least)
Force India ~2s
Toro Rosso ~2s (1s chassis, 1s PU)
McLaren ~2s (0.5s chassis deficit, 1.5s PU)
Sauber ~2.5s (2s chassis, 0.5 PU)
Renault ~3s (2s chassis, 1s PU)
Haas ~3.5s (3s chassis, 0.5s PU)
Manor ~4s (4s - all chassis :p:)

If these were the gaps, I don't think they would have closed really... Can the midfield close on Mercedes? Then again the financial difficulties there are so big I am unsure the underfunded midfield can really up their game. Or who knows?! Sometimes underfinanced teams can also surprise and 2012 surprised many people.

jens

29th October 2015, 17:04

rjbetty

29th October 2015, 18:49

Thinking about it...

Going by rj's "positive thinking" and expecting the gaps to close, perhaps a more optimistic projection would look like this:

Mercedes
Ferrari ~0.5s
Williams ~1.0s
Red Bull ~1.0s (unless Honda PU...)
Force India ~1.5s
McLaren ~1.5s
Toro Rosso ~1.5s
Sauber ~2.0s
Renault ~2.0-2.5s
Haas ~3.5s
Manor ~4s

The gaps of the last two still remain the same...

I doubt FI, etc teams, have it in them to be within 1 second of Mercedes or even closer. So I consider this a pretty optimistic scenario. Of course it doesn't include outliers, i.e short circuits (like Red Bull Ring), wet conditions or some circuits/conditions, where tyres can play a huge role.

This is pretty much how I see things right now.

Over 2015 it does seem that pound for pound, teams are a little closer to Mercedes than they were last year. I've been trying to think of cases where under stable regs, teams will close up in performance, but then spread out again after having closed up slightly.

Some examples could be 1988-1993. With turbos removed 1989 was certainly closer than the huge gaps of 1988. There were 29 drivers scoring points and many drivers made the podium. In 1990 it was even closer with 4 winning teams again. But I'd say certainly from 1992 if not 1991, everything spread out as teams adopted gizmos but many couldn't, or couldn't do so effectively. Then in 1993 diminishing returns seemed to kick in a bit with the gaps from front to back slightly less massive.

2009-2013: Gaps started extremely close in 2009 but actually spread out in 2010 as top teams that got it wrong corrected themselves. Then gaps got bigger in 2011 as teams adopted Exhaust Blown Diffusers, before closing right up in 2012 as EBD was banned, then spreading out more in 2013 as the EBD effect was replicated but without breaking the rules. But even then reading between the lines, you might consider 2011 and 2013 on 'equal' terms, but 2013 was closer throughout the field then 2011 was. Also 2010 and 2012 might be considered to be equal terms, both largely without EBD or it's effect - and 2012 was much closer than 2010. So it seems there might still be an underlying closing up of the field due to diminishing returns for frontrunners under stable regs.

It seems these 2 cases of the field actually spreading out over time were caused by the top teams getting hold of some new innovation (Gizmos in 90's, Exhaust diffusers in 10's) causing more spread in performance thru the grid as top teams were able to apply the innovations more effectively.

It looks like unless some new innovation comes along, then the grid by default seems to gradually converge in performance as long as regs stay stable.

So unless Merc, Red Bull, Ferrari etc find some new 'big thing' to develop, things should close up a little in the 3rd year of these regs.

The only thing that could be an issue is disparity between works and customer engines. Sadly it looks like the toothless FIA is going to allow whatever the top teams want, not caring at all for smaller teams. My optimistic predictions are based on engine equality as in 2014.

The rules have stated so far that every team must receive the exact specification of PU as the works team. However top teams are finding ways around this like denying teams latest software, and it looks like fuels make a huge difference with McLaren rumoured to be losing as much as 40bhp(!) in 2014 despite having the same basic engine as Merc. Mercedes are also denying customers latest engine specs this year (claiming it's about reliability even though the works team are running them). So maybe this could be the thing, like the gizmos and EBD that causes performance spread even in stable regs.

rjbetty

29th October 2015, 19:59

So now I will try and imagine a grid based on engine disparities, Honda still being rubbish, finances becoming even worse for smaller teams etc. Most of this is a bit tongue in cheek so enjoy! :)

:( DOOM AND GLOOM SCENARIO :(

Mercedes
1.Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2.Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) +0.30 (bigger in races)

Rosberg is totally defeated and burnt out and is now like Webber in 2011 or 2013. He provides no challenge to Hamilton. Hamilton doesn't get a single DNF, while Rosberg gets just 1, but also in race tech problems a couple of times.

Ferrari
3.Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari) +0.58
4.Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) +1.09

Ferrari are no closer than in 2015, while Raikkonen is declining. They are still closer in races to Mercedes but Hamilton and Merc are now just too good having won 2 titles each. No challenge from behind as in 2015 leading to predictable top 3's as usual.

Williams
5.Valtteri Bottas (Williams) +1.24
6.Felipe Massa (Williams) +1.42

Williams are no closer to the front and have peaked, looking stumped as to how to progress. Bottas is grumpy at not getting a 'top' drive (is Williams so terrible?) leading to unhappiness and tensions under the surface. Massa isn't grumpy but looks forlorn and it shows in his driving. The team line up is now becoming stale. There is grumbling about still being stuck with a 2015 engine for a suspiciously long time.

Toro Rosso
7.Carlos Sainz (Toro Rosso) +1.42
8.Max Verstappen (Toro Rosso) +1.47

Running a year old Ferrari engine, which by now isn't really much faster than a Renault, Toro Rosso still do actually close up somewhat due to drivers getting quicker and other teams struggling. Performance and strategy still suck in races meaning points lost. Driver tensions escalate and they fall out. Sainz sacked at season's end, or completely demoted to no.2 causing unhappiness. Max nevertheless finishes in top 8 in championship. Sainz has terrible reliability and mistakes leading to few points.

Red Bull
9.Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull) +2.0
10.Daniil Kvyat (Red Bull) +2.1

Lumped with Honda engines (and second tier ones at that!) since they were the only company who bended to the Bernie's arm twisting. McLaren see to it that RBR are screwed as much as possible. Bitter war of words all season between Ron Dennis and Helmut Marko, with supporting roles of Horner v Bouiller. Honda prove to be totally clueless to the point of complete delusion and like Renault in 2015 have hardly improved at all. ERS is still bad and unreliable, and Honda look in no rush to fix it.

What's more, Newey isn't much interested any more and the effects of his stepping back and Peter Prodromou's leaving are now being more keenly felt as the chassis starts to fall back a bit. They even get outperformed by McLaren quite often.
If you thought Mateschitz and co moaned in 2015 this is the real nightmare. Even Ricciardo loses his smile and a sad Dietrich considers whether it's worth paying $400 million to cut his losses and get out of F1.

Force India
12.Nico Hulkenberg (Force India) +2.41
14.Sergio Perez (Force India) +2.46

Celebrations at finishing 5th in the 2015 WCC are short lived as the team again fail to make the even earlier winter testing. They again start the season off the pace with a 2015 car, and are forced to run de facto 2015 Mercedes engines. Vijay is now in big trouble and now the team can't even develop their way back much, like they did in 2015. Prize money from their 2015 keeps them going, plus Perez's sponsor money, but things getting a bit more frugal. Hulkenberg goes completely off the boil and loses confidence, causing Vijay to criticise him in public. Relations go downhill from there and no-one is surprised when Hulk leaves F1 for the WEC at the end of the season, perhaps even earlier. Team still finish at least 7th in the WCC due to shrewd racecraft etc.

McLaren
11.Fernando Alonso (McLaren) +2.24
15.Jenson Button (McLaren) +2.51

Well even in a nightmare scenario it's better than 2015, but not by a huge amount. Ron Dennis gets unhappy at Honda's lack of progress and Alonso continues to have his patience tested with more radio outbursts. Semi-regular minor points ensue. The only saving grace is that Red Bull are hardly much better and Ron is satisfied at Alonso making the difference on several occasions. They lose 1 or 2 good opportunities through unreliability and misfortune. Jenson loses interest, with some qualifying failures again making a bigger gap to Alonso, and fades into that faintly mediocre mode he sometimes go in. He retires at the end of the season.

Sauber
Another team struggling financially but doing ok enough to survive. They miss the first test. Chassis doesn't close on Mercedes much at all and they are stuck with a 2015 spec PU. At least drivers are more experienced and quicker, but still don't make the most of their opportunities.

14.Felipe Nasr (Sauber) +2.48
16.Marcus Ericsson (Sauber) +2.79

Renault
The worst case scenario is Renault don't take over and the team fold altogether. Or they continue as Lotus but are REALLY in a mess. They miss most of winter testing with an unprepared car. The Renault engine is still poor, and drivers suck. They really are nowhere much all season, and points are few - it really is 2014 again. Their livery is an extremely dull and uninspired yellow, despite the fact Forti and Jordan proved that colour can work fantastically. Palmer wonders what he has gotten into and in this situation is nowhere all season.

17.Pastor Maldonado +3.3
20.Jolyon Palmer +4.1

Haas
The Dallara chassis lacks downforce terribly. Gene Haas turns out to be clueless and Grosjean wonders "Mon ami, what 'ave I gotten myself into?" before glancing over at Renault and realising maybe things aren't so bad. Gutierrez after a year out is timid as ever, and looks out of his depth. There are no points but the team do beat Manor on countback of best results.

18.Romain Grosjean +3.7
22.Esteban Gutierrez +4.3

Manor
Despite Williams and Force India getting Merc hand-me-down PUs, Manor do indeed at least get something more up to date along with fuels. Team struggle to make their bills though, but do survive on goodwill for a while. Rookie drivers unable to make most of package and they miss out on some good opportunities. As a result they finish 11th in the WCC. They score no points. Bernie continues his vendetta against the team.

19.Pascal Wehrlein +3.8
21.Alexander Rossi +4.3

rjbetty

29th October 2015, 20:44

1.Mercedes
They still win and Hamilton still wins and beats Rosberg but only after a mathematical three-way fight taken to the last race. There are some DNFs due to the team having to push the envelope a bit to keep ahead of Ferrari.

1.Lewis Hamilton
2.Nico Rosberg +0.12

2.Ferrari
Ferrari have closed right up and in races Vettel is arguably maybe the quickest. He wins several races and remains in real contention most of the way after a slightly off start with a DNF in Malaysia. Seb either wins the title or comes so close that he would have won it if not caught in traffic during a crazy Brazilian Grand Prix. Kimi takes the most popular win of the season somewhere, and maybe adds another. He is consistently in the top 4 with a string of podiums and remains in outside title contention, only mathematically falling out in the final races.

3.Sebastian Vettel +0.30
6.Kimi Raikkonen +0.71

3.Red Bull
Red Bull continue with Renault who make quite a big improvement. Drivers each claim a pole position and a race victory.

4.Daniel Ricciardo +0.60
5.Daniil Kvyat +0.69

4.Williams
Massa claims a surprise pole in Canada and both drivers score podiums. Bottas delivers on his promise to be more aggressive and challenges the Red Bulls in the WDC.

7.Valtteri Bottas +0.74
8.Felipe Massa +0.86

5.McLaren
Honda are much improved and Alonso makes it through to Q3 in Melbourne. Peter Prodromou's first full design for McLaren is a neat treat and the team nip at the heels of Williams and Red Bull all season.

10.Fernando Alonso +1.04
12.Jenson Button +1.24

6.Toro Rosso
With a customer Ferrari engine and more experienced and faster drivers, plus some more chassis gains, Toro Rosso are a fixture in the top 10 all season, with a few top 3 grid slots. They aren't as quick in races but Max Verstappen grabs 2 podiums and picks up points in more races than not to do a Vettel 2008 and finish in the top 10 in the WDC. Sainz still impresses anyway.

9.Carlos Sainz +1.04
11.Max Verstappen +1.10

7.Force India
Perez in particular continues to shine and picks up a superb 2nd place in Monza having qualified 3rd on the grid.

13.Nico Hulkenberg +1.38
14.Sergio Perez +1.54

8.Sauber
Drivers improve and still manage a pretty good tally even though other teams have surpassed them.

15.Felipe Nasr +1.74
18.Marcus Ericsson +2.04

9.Renault
A transitional year but still able to impress on occasion.

16.Pastor Maldonado +2.02
21.Jolyon Palmer +2.57

9.Haas
The team impress straightway with Grosjean qualifying 14th in Melbourne. It's no fluke as he makes Q2 several times over the season, although there are some back row starts too. In some races Grosjean is very competitive indeed, running up in the top 10.

17.Grosjean +2.03
20.Gutierrez +2.53

10.Manor
With a Mercedes engine + the works, a definitive 2016 chassis under the guidance of Bob Bell, and support from Williams and Mercedes, Manor are one of the feel good stories of F1. Several Q2 appearances, and performing very well indeed at some circuits. They sometimes run in the top 10 after starts and are able to hold position for a good while.

19.Pascal Wehrlein +2.51
20.Alexander Rossi +2.98