My Past F1 Predictions [Archive]

rjbetty

24th April 2014, 06:57

Haha thanks Jens, yes I was just turning 15 when I did this. Boy has time gone fast!

I was still new-ish to F1 then. 1998 was my first full season, but I was too 'not-into-it-yet' and didn't have a thought or clue as to how the season would go. I didn't know who was driving for who, and didn't clock any new colour schemes till the first race.

Hey actually I just remembered I did have some thoughts!! I expected M.Schumacher would take the title with about 78pts, Villeneuve would have about 72pts. But the big thing I was expecting was Fisichella to come 3rd with around 42pts, since he had made a big move to Benetton which I regarded as a top team (they had come 3rd in '97 and at the time I hadn't understood it wasn't a great season by their standards). As for Wurz, since he wasn't a big name (imo), I didn't expect much and thought he'd bank around 15pts and be miles off Fisi.

I didn't rate Irvine that much and predicted Damon Hill in a Jordan would outscore him (around 28pts to 24). My sister wasn't too happy with this prediction!

That's about it for 98.

1999 was my first season where I was able to have some knowledge and preparations and thoughts during the pre-season. Though being my first time, I couldn't see Zanardi beating Ralf. I just remember being very excited for the season, not knowing how it was all going to turn out, how BAR were going to do etc!

I'm sure I remember Damon Hill coming 2nd in a testing day at Barcelona, leading me to proclaim he could fight with the McLarens on some days. I remember how I creased up laughing when I read Alain Prost considered 3rd in the WCC a realistic aim possibly. But even that didn't beat the ridicule when I read (not Sir at the time) Jackie Stewart's prediction that the team could win a race.

In hindsight, I can see that Prost had some potential against the Supertec teams, and if you don't realise how well Jordan and Stewart would do, but regard them more on '98 levels, I can see his thinking.

I was however, humbled in regard to JYS prediction - well done.

I could NEVER have forseen neither Zanardi AND BAR not scoring at all, and the former struggling so much.

You're right Jens about BAR not being bad. I was aware Villeneuve was good in qualifying, but I meant their ability to score any points.

jens

24th April 2014, 09:32

So it was 1. M. Schumacher, 2. Villeneuve, 3. Fisichella for 1998? Not too bad if you forgot the McLarens, who were so far out in front that you failed to notice them.:p:

But yeah, if I try to recall early 1998, then behind the McLarens we quite often had Schumacher, Villeneuve, Fisichella racing for positions. Obviously Irvine had a good season as well as Wurz. And later in the season Jordan emerged.

In retrospect I have had to adjust some of my past understandings or at least re-define them. For example it was mysterious to me, how could rookie Alex Wurz be so damn good in 1998 and beat Fisichella, yet be nowhere in 1999/2000. In retrospect I have concluded that the early-1998 Benetton on superior Bridgestone tyres was a damn good package and Fisichella was still adapting to the team and not fully up-to-speed. That's how Wurz stood out. But while in the subsequent seasons circumstances weren't so favourable for Wurz any more, he dropped back. A bit like circumstances were very favourable for Kevin Magnussen in Australia 2014 and he finished second, yet has failed to repeat the drive/result in subsequent races.

That's just one example.:) I am sure there is more to analyze in retrospect.

jens

24th April 2014, 11:08

More to note from that era. I have to say 1999 was a meaningful year to me too. It was the second season I followed very closely like a proper fan and it was fascinating to see all those changes. It already felt like being a somewhat experienced viewer if you get to experience a new season and new things.:D

During 1998 you got used to the same thing all year (only Jordan moved up through the field), so 1999 was pretty enlightening to see a new F1. McLaren/Ferrari and its line-ups were still the same, but behind them there were interesting new combinations and how they performed.

I saw already in 1998, how much car counts in performance due to big gaps between teams that year, and 1999 taught me quite more, how different can fates be depending on car choice. For example in 1998 Villeneuve and Frentzen had been team-mate with Villeneuve coming out on top. Then suddenly in 1999 I saw them in different teams with Villeneuve scoring nothing at all, yet Frentzen being close to the sharp end.

I remember I considered Frentzen just a lucky bastard at the time, who had got both a fast and reliable car while Villeneuve's BAR was anything but reliable. It was retrospectively I started rating HHF's driving that year very highly.

Another thing about 1998 vs 1999 was that in 1998 I got used to team-mates performing pretty closely. It was largely influenced by gaps between teams obviously. But 1999 saw some big team-mate gaps. Hill, Zanardi really not scoring anywhere in the region of their team-mates, Herbert was trailing Barrichello for much of the year too before late-season resurgence. Salo qualified 18th in Hungary for Ferrari.

I also realized, how important luck is, esp regarding reliability, because Hill, Villeneuve, Zanardi, Alesi, etc all suffered from bad reliability and didn't get many good results. And also I could see that in the same team luck could be very different, because R. Schumacher's and Frentzen's cars were running like clockworks.

rjbetty

2nd May 2014, 06:52

I remember my sister was a huge fan of Wurz in 1998 while I supported Fisichella. Given how I thought Fisi was the best thing since sliced bread, I also found it surprising how well Wurz did. But somehow, even in my very primitive understanding, I was somehow able to know that though Wurz was great, he had had more preparation and understanding of how to drive the 1998 cars. I remember either F1 Racing or Autosport saying he was quick because he understood how the new generation of cars needed to be driven.

Alex actually outscored Fisi by 1pt, but even then I noticed that from mid-season, Fisi had a clear advantage, and could tell it was because Fisi was taking some time to get up to speed in his new team. I felt Wurz would have a poorish year in 99, and so it proved, but much more so than expected.

I also remember 1999 being notable for one team-mate dominating the other in most teams, except the bottom two.

I remember at the time thinking Frentzen was amazing! I never saw him beating Damon, simply because of Hill's status; a bit immature in my understanding there.

tbh even at the time I didn't really understand why Zanardi was rated SO highly, so much so that I read in F1 Racing that new signing Ralf Schumacher's contract was for 2 years and would automatically be renewed for another 2 years if he scored at least 60% of Zanardi's points total over 1999-2000. This was before the 1999 season started and even then this surprised me. I never expected Zanardi would beat Ralf in 1999, though I thought he'd perform well, like he did from Hungary-Monza, but like that most of the time.

Again, I could never, ever have imagined that neither he, or both BAR drivers, would both score no points at all... Incredible.

I also thought Herbert would be closer to Barrichello.

Speaking of Rubens, he impressed me in 1999, and it was during 1998-99 that I could not understand how he did not seem well rated and was not in a top drive. My understanding of F1 at the time was shaped a lot by Grand Prix 2 which I'd got in February 1998, which was based on the 1994 season, and had the season results for all points scoring drivers in the handbook, plus driver profiles for all drivers in the game.

From this, my understanding was that Barrichello was a brilliant driver, having finished 6th in the championship with 19pts in a humble Jordan-Hart, MUCH better than Irvine who only banked 6pts. Also, I usually only did quickraces, and Barrichello would always start high up while Irvine was in the midfield. The default quickrace performances of the A.I. drivers shaped my opinions of them early on. It was only years later I realised I had underrated Martin Brundle and overrated Rubens somewhat.

I also understood later on that the main reason most people weren't convinced by Barrichello was because of his poor 1995 season, which I was unaware of.

journeyman racer

3rd May 2014, 12:54

Why would you try to predict anything is such detail? You only leave yourself to being more and more wrong!

A pity for you the two of you that you started following F1 from 98/99. Overall, 97 was the best, and my favourite, F1 season. So many twists and turns, so many points of interest. The last season of F1 before the FIA really started mucking around with the cars.

- HHF seemed to benefit from being in a new environment at Jordan. There was a lot of unnecessary pressure at Williams previously, it seemed.

- Barrichello was a rated driver in the mid 90s, but an opportunity hadn't yet opened for him. You can't just move anytime you like. He wasn't rated as highly as HHF I don't recall, otherwise it may've been him going to Williams for 97. There was the opportunity at Ferrari for 96, but I think Ferrari chose Irvine because he could be treated as second class, like he was, without disturbing the team focus on Schumacher too much.

- After the success of JV, Zanardi was supposed to continue on with that form having won the last two Champcar titles. So that's where the expectation came from.

I would never have seriously thought Webber would ever win a GP. I'm disappointed to be wrong.

rjbetty

6th May 2014, 03:55

Why would you try to predict anything is such detail? You only leave yourself to being more and more wrong!

I just had great fun over the years. I had so much more passion back then!

A pity for you the two of you that you started following F1 from 98/99. Overall, 97 was the best, and my favourite, F1 season. So many twists and turns, so many points of interest. The last season of F1 before the FIA really started mucking around with the cars.

Yes it is a pity!! I didn't appreciate the 1997 season at the time. I just thought it was totally ordinary for midfield teams to be winning and challenging for wins. It was only in 1998 I realised 1997 was just not normal. In hindsight, 1997 is almost a mythical season to me, for how so many teams and drivers could be in the mix. Times were usually very close and every race was memorable for one reason or another.*

And I totally think 1997 is curiously and strangely overlooked and forgotten in general.

*Bear in mind I'm probably suffering from a severe case of rose-tinted spectacle-itis.

- Barrichello was a rated driver in the mid 90s, but an opportunity hadn't yet opened for him. You can't just move anytime you like. He wasn't rated as highly as HHF I don't recall, otherwise it may've been him going to Williams for 97. There was the opportunity at Ferrari for 96, but I think Ferrari chose Irvine because he could be treated as second class, like he was, without disturbing the team focus on Schumacher too much.

I read in 1999 that Williams had considered him for the season, but it was felt that though he was good, he hadn't shown enough to be quite worth the punt. I still always felt he was horribly unfortunate to be driving such an uncompetitive car in 1998 in which he couldn't make much impression. I thought he was amazing in Canada that year. I think he qualified 12th(?) but I'm sure I remember him overtaking everyone early on and running as high as 3rd(?)

- After the success of JV, Zanardi was supposed to continue on with that form having won the last two Champcar titles. So that's where the expectation came from.

Without wanting to be harsh or drag up old chestnuts, I just cannot believe the CART field of '98 was close to being a match for the F1 grid of '99, and I think that alone is a contributing factor.

I would never have seriously thought Webber would ever win a GP. I'm disappointed to be wrong.

I became aware of Webber in the FIA GT championship at Mercedes in 1998, but it was in 2000 he made a big impression on me. Driving for Paul Stoddart's European Arrows F3000 team, he led the championship early on! I hadn't expected much as the previous years drivers only managed 4pts between them. So to see Mark being right up there made me take notice. It also helped that the team were affiliated with Arrows F1 and ran their own version of the Orange Arrows colour scheme which I had fallen in love with! Hmmm I think it should have been obvious at Jaguar that Mark was VERY good.

rjbetty

6th May 2014, 05:17

2000 - The Big One

This was the first year where I properly tried to predict average qualifying times as well as points; my first full, real pre-season.

I have to say this was my most anticipated season of all time. I didn't expect it to be anything other than epic! I had high expectations after the crazy 1999, and my understanding being immature, simply expected everything to be closer and more exciting year on year.

I remember being so excited at the Christmas issue of Autosport in 99, which showed a main story with pictures of the drivers in their new cars testing. Everything looked so bright and modern. There was Trulli getting his big break with Jordan, Alesi joining his friend Alain Prost, the always beautiful Saubers (what a far cry from today!) with Salo and Diniz's helmets suiting so well, Irvine with his red helmet in a white Stewart, and one of my favourites, Rubens in red getting a top drive he deserved!

It was all a salivating prospect, and this is exactly how I thought qualifying over the year might go:

1.M.Schumacher (Ferrari)
2.Hakkinen (McLaren) +0.10
3.Barrichello (Ferrari) +0.28
4.Coulthard (McLaren) +0.47
5.Frentzen (Jordan) +0.50
6.Irvine (Jaguar) +0.60
7.Trulli (Jordan) +0.64
8.Villeneuve (BAR) +0.84
9.Herbert (Jaguar) +0.90
10.R.Schumacher (Williams) +1.18
11.Fisichella (Benetton) +1.20
12.Alesi (Prost) +1.24
13.Wurz (Benetton) +1.37
14.Salo (Sauber) +1.40
15.Heidfeld (Prost) +1.50
16.Zonta (BAR) +1.50
17.Diniz (Sauber) +1.67
18.Verstappen (Arrows) +1.80
19.Button (Williams) +1.80
20.de la Rosa (Arrows) +1.82
21.Wilson (Minardi) +2.47
22.Gené (Minardi) +2.80

I suppose in some ways, it wasn't tooooo far off. Hakkinen wasn't as far off, I overrated Rubens, and underestimated Coulthard, thinking he'd struggle further, in his final season for McLaren(!) as other teams closed up.

JORDAN/JAGUAR:
Sadly, Jordan and Jaguar were nowhere near my prediction. I believed they would create a new "big four" with McLaren and Ferrari to replace the long running one of Williams-McLaren-Ferrari-Benetton which had ran since the mid-80's, only being brought to an end in '98. I somewhat believed the hype over Jaguar, also believing Herbert would carry on his late '99 form - his race win having galvanised him; while I just didn't want to believe Jordan inexplicably having to run old Mugen-Hondas would affect their performance...

BENETTON:
I showed that I was starting to learn lessons by putting Fisichella 11th, even though I could not conceive of him not being in the top 10 best overall. I had learned from 1998 and 1999 to be more realistic, so I was pleased with myself for this prediction. I wasn't expecting huge things this time, just a step towards consolidation and respectability without being so all at sea. This is pretty much how it turned out. In fact, 20pts was probably a few more than I predicted.

I thought Alex Wurz would improve after 1999 and be more respectable, but it wasn't to be.

PROST:
I expected good things from Prost, with Alesi being recharged to find his potential. At the time, Nick Heidfeld was THE next big thing, and all eyes were on him to do well. He was in line for a long term future at McLaren-Mercedes; it's really strange to think this now... For me, Prost were the big unknown. You see, they had ended 1999 rather strongly: Panis had qualified and run well early on at the Nurburgring before Trulli took 2nd, showing great racecraft to hold off the superior Stewart of Rubens (again strange to think this maybe considering the long running reputation Trulli was about to gain). Japan was even better, and one of my great memories was Panis and Trulli qualifying 6th and 7th, with Panis in particular on fire through the weekend, as he made a start like a rocket into 3rd, only to sadly retire while looking set for a good result.

This meant Prost were looking good, and I thought they may do even better than predicted. Could they qualify 5th and 7th at Melbourne say, and do well as Stewart had the previous year. Sadly, try 10 places back from that...

SAUBER:
At the time, I liked Sauber's line up, but very much felt it was a little weak and uninspiring, which funnily enough mirrors my exact feelings 14 years later. Oh the irony! I remember someone writing they sensed it would be a year where Sauber would score quite a lot of points. I hoped so.

BAR:
I absolutely loved BAR's new white machine with silver and red, with their new more humble, no-nonsense approach. I expected not amazing things, but a good deal of respect to be gained, and 1-3 good podiums to have a great chance of 5th in the WCC, which though they wouldn't have been happy, would actually have represented a very good step.

WILLIAMS:
BMW-Williams were expected to be fairly disastrous. I didn't have them doing that badly, and thought a good score of lower points finishes and maybe a podium would be a very decent return for year 1.

One of my greatest F1 memories was the day I found out on the news that Jenson Button had been signed for Williams. In my primitive understanding, this was utterly out of the blue. I well remember during the winter of 1999, for seemingly ages, the 2nd Williams seat wasn't filled, and I had no idea who would fill it. It could have been Panis or Darren Manning, or Jorg Muller or anyone else. At the time, I had no net, no Autosport, just monthly F1 Racing, so had no idea about the shootout tests or that Button had had any involvement with Williams whatsoever.

I do remember being very excited when I found out about his Prost test. I had followed Button closely during 1999 in British F3. The first I saw of him was when I was 14; I saw his British flag helmet and thought "wow!" So decided then on to follow him closely as he'd just won the Formula Ford Festival and the championship. Next I heard, he had joined F3 as I picked up a rare copy of Autosport with the season preview (also included Luciano Burti, Narain Karthikeyan, Takuma Sato and Alex Yoong). Come to think of it, I think it was in THAT famous issue after the Australian GP 1999, which introduced us to 14 year old Lewis Hamilton!!!

Jenson had struggled with an underpowered Renault engine (some things just do not change) against the future Red Bull and Marussia F1 teams (and the Manor/Marussia driver won)! Last I heard, Jenson was going to continue in F3, then suddenly he's announced at Williams?! :O

I thought he'd do well to get within 6-7 tenths off Ralf in year 1, on rare occasions qualifying in the top 10, and only failing to look better because of the ultra-competitive field I expected.

ARROWS
I think we all expected an improvement here, but because of everyone else being competitive, Arrows would still be 10th best team, but this time, on the back of the midfield group and able to qualify in the upper midfield on occasion. I thought Verstappen might edge de la Rosa, as Jos was always very highly rated back then.

MINARDI
For a long time it looked like one of my favourite F3000 drivers, Max Wilson would drive for Minardi in 2000. So I was very disappointed indeed when they signed loser Mazzacane instead, though I did go on to be very fond of Gaston for some reason (wish he could have kept that Prost drive).

POINTS
While the qualifying looks pretty accurate, here's where it all goes silly.

I expected lots of crazy incidents, retirements, and thrills and spills, simply because 1999 had them. And I took it for granted there would be even more errors in 2000, which with a close field resulted in something like this:

1.M.Schumacher 78pts
2.Barrichello 62pts
3.Hakkinen 57pts
4.Frentzen 51pts
5.Irvine 48pts
6.Coulthard 34pts
7.Trulli 32pts
8.Herbert 24pts
9.Villeneuve 18pts
10.Fisichella 16pts
11.R.Schumacher 16pts
12.Alesi 12pts
13.Wurz 9pts
14.Salo 8pts
15.Heidfeld 6pts
16.Zonta 6pts
17.Button 6pts
18.Diniz 3pts
19.Verstappen 2pts
20.de la Rosa 1pt
21.Gené
22.Mazzacane

1.Ferrari - Ferrari - 140pts
2.McLaren - Mercedes 91pts
3.Jordan - Mugen-Honda 83pts
4.Jaguar - Cosworth 72pts
5.Benetton - Playlife 25pts
6.BAR - Honda 24pts
7.Williams - BMW 22pts
8.Prost - Peugeot 18pts
9.Sauber - Petronas 11pts
10.Arrows - Supertec 3pts
11.Minardi - Fondmetal

I had Barrichello and Irvine both winning 3 races each, and imagined Trulli leading Barrichello home to win a ´96 style Spanish GP, from well down the field! I thought Herbert would win USA, Irvine Silverstone (holding off a recovering Hakkinen) and Monaco, and one other. McLaren and Schumacher would make a lot of mistakes, causing lower finishes and retirements I thought. I also had a strange feeling there would be quite a lot of disqualifications this year, something that did seem to be happening as Salo was DSQ'd from Australia and Coulthard from Brazil.

Rollo

6th May 2014, 06:27

jens

7th May 2014, 10:46

Why would you try to predict anything is such detail? You only leave yourself to being more and more wrong!

Yeah, I think this is just fun. Regardless of how wrong or right it goes. Actually the more wrong it goes, the more exciting it is.

And other thing is that perhaps it is not so much "prediction", but "expectation". And even if we do not predict precisely, we still have expectations. But once I thought it would be better to project those expectations in a proper prediction to systemize, what exactly do I think.

For example I can't expect like 6 teams going for the championship or all the teams doing very well or being competitive, that would be impossible! So if I play through some scenarios, I'll find out some teams naturally disappoint and regardless of the pre-season PR they can't all do well.:D

And rjbetty...
About 2000.

I didn't really predict that year, but I remember reading a newspaper section after pre-season tests and before actual season. On those days I didn't follow winter tests, so it was interesting to read, how did those comments match up to my "expectation". Basically the newspaper analysis put teams into groups in terms of how good they might be in the upcoming season. It was like that:

5 (championship contender): McLaren, Ferrari
4 (front-runner threat): Jordan
3 (should get regular points): Williams, Benetton, Sauber
2 (struggle): Jaguar, Prost, BAR, Arrows
1 (backmarker): Minardi.

I remember thinking the first three teams made sense, but was somewhat surprised to see Benetton and Sauber on level 3 (I thought particularly Benetton is going to struggle after disappointing 1999 and thought they'd fade during the season anyway as they did in 98-99) and Prost, BAR, Jaguar on level 2, while I had expected them to be more likely on "3".

More about Benetton. When I saw them being absolutely rubbish in 2001, then I thought that "oh well, I suspected this is going to happen one day anyway". Such had been my feeling since 1999 or even 1998. Especially as I was new to F1 and then learnt not long ago Michael Schumacher was winning for that team. So I guess I felt this team was a sinking ship in a way. And was relieved, when I heard that they were sold to Renault, then I thought "okay, maybe after 2002 they'll come good again".

Well, as the season started, the media projections were pretty close to be honest with the exception of BAR, who was well competing in points. And certainly in Australia it was like that in terms of speed - two top teams in front, then Jordan. And then the rest with Sauber going remarkably well and Salo competing for points.

--

I think randomly thinking about the future I had a small wish for 2000, but I guess I didn't believe it could come true. Jean Alesi to win a messy wet race in the Prost Peugeot.:D A bit like Hill in 1998 and Herbert in 1999. Based on that evidence I expected each season to have one such race, which is complete chaos. All front-runners (both Ferraris and McLarens) mess up and one surprise package wins. And I wished and felt Alesi the rainmaster in the surprisingly fast Prost can capitalize on that this time!

Also thought Irvine would get at least podiums somewhere. Rjbetty, I can understand, why did you project Irvine to do so well. I guess I could have made the same mistake if tried to predict properly. The thing was that in 1999 he was a great underdog, who didn't really have speed, but all the time capitalized on other misfortunes and scored big points. So the "feeling" was that he could do that in Jaguar too while racing in upper midfield, but getting on podiums with attrition. But I certainly would not have projected him 3 wins unless there was proper chaos. And in my imagination the "chaos" win went to Alesi.:D The rest of them to Ferrari and McLaren and maybe, maybe-maybe the Jordan nicking one too somewhere.

jens

7th May 2014, 11:13

So maybe I'll start about 2001 before rjbetty puts his prediction here.:D

Once again I didn't predict. But yeah I can perhaps recall some of the general feelings.

For the first time in my mind M.Schumacher entered the season and championship favourite. While before the previous years I thought Häkkinen with his superior car is going to win anyway regardless of how "close" it is. But now I thought Schumacher should do it, Ferrari is on an upward curve getting better each year. I guess I would have thought Häkkinen would still finish second in the championship, so his bad season was a surprise.

Behind them perhaps expecting Williams-BMW to end up 3rd would have made sense regardless of the tyres they were using. Back then I didn't take the tyre-war seriously, I thought doesn't matter which tyres they have, they'd perform similarly anyway. But Williams turned out to be much better than "just 3rd", they were really fighting with two top teams.

I heard Jordan switched to factory Honda engines, so perhaps expected them to be a bit better, but didn't expect miracles. BAR was likely to keep going in points-competing positions as well.

Sauber was obviously a surprise even if I thought them to be their "usual solid self" and score several points as they did each year. But they got much more than that. Prost had switched to Ferrari engines, so it was a bit of a hope, but I had lost a lot of belief in the team and felt Alesi was perennially unlucky, so I didn't even dream anything going well for him any more.

I can't remember what I could have thought of Jaguar or Arrows. Perhaps thought Jaguar should be at least better than in 2000 after their "build-up season". Despite taking over Stewart there was some talk Jaguar had trouble in re-building the team and Irvine was speaking about "3-year-plan" about the team becoming competitive as he had a 3-year-contract. Perhaps I took this talk half or 20% seriously, but when I saw in 2001 again that they were in (lower) midfield, I lost all belief in them.

Arrows seemed like a great underdog team, who sometimes could be surprisingly fast and genuinely compete for points.

And of course, Minardi the last team. This was a constant expectation each season.:)

Overall. The past years had made me disillusioned of any "close contest". Ferrari and McLaren were so far ahead of everybody else in 2000, that basically I felt the rest of them have a hard time doing anything about it.

Perhaps I pinned some hopes on Renault and Toyota from 2002 onwards and that those two car manufacturer giants could do something about the "status quo", which I didn't feel like some privateer minnows like Sauber, Prost, Benetton, even Jordan, yeah, whoever, could do anything about. And the well-funded BAR wasn't anything more than a "big talk" team to me on those days, I didn't take their ambitions to reach the top seriously.

rjbetty

8th May 2014, 06:35

Yeah, I think this is just fun. Regardless of how wrong or right it goes. Actually the more wrong it goes, the more exciting it is.

And other thing is that perhaps it is not so much "prediction", but "expectation"

Jens, that is a good way of saying it. I was trying to find another word for prediction, which I think sounds like taking it too seriously and being too mechanical and unable to enjoy. "Expectations" is a better word.

5 (championship contender): McLaren, Ferrari
4 (front-runner threat): Jordan
3 (should get regular points): Williams, Benetton, Sauber
2 (struggle): Jaguar, Prost, BAR, Arrows
1 (backmarker): Minardi.

I have to say this is a surprise to me too. Around Dec/Jan 1999/2000 I would have said this:

5 - McLaren, Ferrari
4 - Jordan, Jaguar
3 - BAR, Williams, Benetton, Prost (just)
2 - Sauber, Arrows
1 - Minardi

I had a small wish for 2000, but I guess I didn't believe it could come true. Jean Alesi to win a messy wet race in the Prost Peugeot.:D A bit like Hill in 1998 and Herbert in 1999. Based on that evidence I expected each season to have one such race, which is complete chaos.

Yes, early on, in my immature expectations that year on year the field HAD to get closer and be more crazy than the year before, I had Salo on pole for Sauber in wet Brazil, and then during the season, Button winning a wet/dry USA (there was a good chance of him doing well as it turned out). Incidentally there was a small feature in F1 Racing where an actual fortune teller was asked to make predictions! This was after the season started. I remember him saying Jenson would win a race soon. As it happened, Jenson didn't win a race until 2006, and didn't win his 2nd til 2009... D'oh.

I too always expected one crazy race with 8 or less finishers. Sadly, I think we will never ever have one again, or anything like it at this rate. I still can't believe only 2 cars retired in China the other week. That is it for me, and it looks like unfortunately, the days of getting the occasional Monaco 96 or Nurburgring 1999 are truly gone forever.

Also thought Irvine would get at least podiums somewhere. Rjbetty, I can understand, why did you project Irvine to do so well.

It was mostly because I believed the hype Ford were making, with Jac Nasser and Wolfgang Reitzle talking about a sea of green at Silverstone (meaning the crowd wearing Jaguar gear like all the tifosi wear red). I remember in hindsight some magazine said basically "Ford's attitude was pretty much 'Ferrari had better watch out'". I expected Jaguar would make good progress after Stewart's 1999 and have a strong car, though unreliable; almost as strong as the Ferrari, with a more powerful engine. Also, 3 race wins for Irvine and more podiums, but not much more points in a very win-or-bust season, because I just thought the season had to be even more crazy than 99.

rjbetty

8th May 2014, 08:37

I will now share my memories of 2001.

2000 was the biggest pre-season for me, and my motor racing passion peaked around the 2000-2002 period, though survived a battering in 2002 with the most rubbish F1 season ever (though at least that season was "real") - can't believe a more boring season than 98 happened - at least that had Spa! This was the start of the traction control/driver aids dark ages. It was little better anywhere else: Formula 3000 was rubbish and declining, with increased gaps and more predictable results, CART was also suffering badly, with less than 20 drivers, and the WRC was boring too since I wasn't supporting Gronholm. The cars were more reliable and the results less varied, but 2002 WRC not even a drop in the ocean compare to how cr@p it is now.

Pre-season 2001, it was still good times, and this season was another one of great interest to me - another of my favourites for expectations. I remember when I started college in late 2000, sometimes I would be playing GP2, running a "pre-2001" season I made with the editor. I had heard Benetton were going to incorporate more dark blue into their design for 2001 so I created a Benetton with more dark blue and white, looking more like the 97 livery which I liked.

I also designed a Minardi which based on what evidence and rumours I could gather, incorporated white and blue, with some telefonica lime green remaining. I really liked it! The liveries weren't revealed at the time so I had to do my own.

The other teams in my GP2 season (to make 26 cars) were Toyota and Fondmetal, who had talked of having their own team at the time. Telefonica also talked about their own team.

For 2001, I again naively expected the field to close up from 2000, and make the season more interesting, though had improved somewhat from having to have everything be even more crazy because the previous year was. I still had plenty of unusual stuff though.

My average qualifying times were this:

1.M.Schumacher (Ferrari)
2.Hakkinen (McLaren) +0.11
3.Barrichello (Ferrari) +0.28
4.Coulthard (McLaren) +0.28
5.Frentzen (Jordan) +0.50
6.Trulli (Jordan) +0.56
7.R.Schumacher (Williams) +0.60
8.Villeneuve (BAR) +0.74
9.Fisichella (Benetton) +0.78
10.Irvine (Jaguar) +0.90
11.Montoya (Williams) +0.92
12.Button (Benetton) +0.98
13.Panis (BAR) +1.16
14.Heidfeld (Sauber) +1.30
15.Alesi (Prost) +1.40
16.Verstappen (Arrows) +1.50
17.Burti (Jaguar) +1.60
18.Bernoldi (Arrows) +1.78
19.Raikkonen (Sauber) +1.81
20.Alonso (Minardi) +2.20
21.Mazzacane (Prost) +2.40
22.Marques (Minardi) +2.81

As you can see, again FAR too optimistic! I knew about the new wings for 2001 etc, but didn't want to believe the field would spread out as in 98. I was wary of McLaren bouncing back, and still maybe overrated Rubens a bit, believing he would close the gap having now won a race, and settled in at Ferrari.

MY FINAL STANDINGS (ROUGH PTS)
1.M.Schumacher 82pts
2.Hakkinen 71pts
3.Barrichello 60pts
4.Coulthard 58pts (unreliability)
5.Frentzen 33pts (1 win)
6.R.Schumacher 31pts (1 win)
7.Fisichella 28pts (winning at Spa)
8.Trulli 22pts (probably 1 win)
9.Villeneuve 21pts (possibly a win here too! Certainly a 2nd somewhere)
10.Montoya 15pts
11.Button 14pts (2nd at Silverstone)
12.Irvine 12pts (a 2nd somewhere)
13.Panis 8pts (including 1 3rd somewhere)
14.Heidfeld 8pts
15.Alesi 5pts
16.Verstappen 4pts
17.Raikkonen 3pts
18.Burti 2pts (a 5th somewhere, maybe Canada as he did well there in my GP2 season)
19.Bernoldi 2pts
20.Alonso
21.Mazzacane
22.Marques

1.Ferrari 143pts
2.McLaren 128pts
3.Jordan 54pts
4.Williams 46pts
5.Benetton 42pts
6.BAR 29pts
7.Jaguar 14pts
8.Sauber 11pts
9.Arrows 6pts
10.Prost 5pts
11.Minardi

FERRARI
I had Schumacher winning the title, Rubens improving.

MCLAREN
An unknown. A real danger to bounce back, especially for Hakkinen who underperformed somewhat in 2000 at times.

JORDAN
At the time, I rated Jordan very highly and was surprised as early as Hungary 2000, Tony Jardine tipping Williams to be the 3rd best team in 2001. I always felt Jordan, when they got works Honda engines would bounce back, though not at my expected 2000 levels, or even 1999, but a return to respectability, though pushed very close by Williams. My expectations were gradually becoming more realistic, and I felt it was more realistic to have Jordan winning just 1 race, with maybe a 2nd. I was a fan of Frentzen for his 1999, and couldn't face him being beaten by Trulli, though all the evidence was that that would happen, so I really clutched at straws to keep Frentzen in front, just.

WILLIAMS
I expected them to push Williams very close, Montoya to grab a podium and be exciting. Generally definitely stronger than 2000 and able to mix with the top 2 on occasion. Some respected journalists tipped Montoya to beat Ralf in year one, which surprised me - you gotta gain experience first!!

BENETTON
With works Renault Engines returning, and staff joining who helped make Jordan successful, I was expecting bigger things from Benetton, still some way off Jordan and Williams, but bigger nevertheless - a much stronger team.

After his stellar debut year, Jenson Button was smugly predicted by Nigel Roebuck thus: "And so he moves to Benetton, where one rather expects he will get the better of Giancarlo Fisichella". That raised my eyebrows in an upwardly direction, for though I expected Jenson to push Fisi pretty close-ish, there was no way he seemed ready to be that good. Though I think Nigel just very much underestimated Fisi, as I'm aware he never thought much of him, always belittling him whenever mentioned, either in fifth column or elsewhere. I didn't understand for some time just what Nigel's beef was with Fisichella, until years later I stumbled across a likely reason. I know he always loved Alesi, and since Alesi was kicked out of Benetton and replace with Fisichella, maybe that's where some bad feeling comes from. I can imagine the Benetton management saying some things about how much better Fisi would be etc which would put an Alesi fan's nose out of joint.

He also talked about Fisi being "singularly overrated" which is a bit rich by half coming from a man who most weeks, worshipped Montoya like a god, blurting out some things which in hindsight, could be embarrassingly cringeworthy.

I am still proud of myself for not having a smug attitude when that prediction was utterly blown out of the water, and wasn't even bothered when Nigel did not even once acknowledge the very good season Fisi had, even if it wasn't quite an Alonso-2012.

I was believing in Fisi to pull his socks up a little, as I knew he knew his career was at stake if he kept underperforming with Jenson alongside, but he exceeded my expectations. After 2001 I was convinced that on balance Fisi had done the 2nd best job that year, despite strong competition. I have now downgraded that to being a serious contender or very close to being the 2nd best of 2001.

rjbetty

8th May 2014, 08:38

BAR - HONDA
I never quite understood the hype around BAR for 2001. They were expected to beat Jordan quite easily, which I couldn't work out, and be at least 4th in the WCC. This sat wrong with me, though I did predict a definite improvement from a leaner, meaner BAR, with a possible win, and certainly a 3rd for Panis, and probably a 2nd for Jacques. I was excited to see how Panis would do; his stock had soared after a good season testing for McLaren. In fact, he did do well for the firt half of the season. Panis amazed me actually, leading me to overrate him a bit. I was really like "WOW" during 2001 for Olivier, though he did tail off when the McLaren drive became available and he realised he missed out on a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to be a McLaren race driver. The way he matched and beat JV caused me to re-evaluate opinions.

JAGUAR
Now I knew they weren't going to make a big leap and they would have to contend against other improving teams, but I still expected Jaguar to be more respectable and get more points. I had Irvine 10th in qualifying as I couldn't conceive a Jaguar being out of the 10 best qualifiers. So Jaguar to improve, but others improving more. Luciano Burti was never really going to be a long term bet, and I guess he beat Dario Franchitti to the drive as the team were worried he'd be another Zanardi.

SAUBER
I well remember how Heidfeld was maligned after 2000 where he struggled and little was expected. This was always so wrong to me. Yes he did qualify last twice I think, but this was down to struggling with a terrible car. Few seemed to notice after the first 6 or so races, that for the rest of the season he matched Alesi - I certainly did, and this was a truer barometer of his ability. People judged Nick far too harshly and made their minds up after the first half of the season. I though, thought he would quietly be more impressive and perform at a higher level generally than Alesi this year.

As for Raikkonen, I so clearly remember like it was last year how Kimi was a shock signing to RACE for Sauber after a single test. At the time, Red Bull were pushing for Enrique Bernoldi and I think Mateschitz (or maybe Dr Marko but I think the former) called Peter Sauber crazy for choosing Raikkonen. There had also been a rumour around Spa 2000 that Johnny Herbert could rejoin (since no-one better was available), but that was immediately rubbished by Martin Brundle.

So, great rejoicing at Sauber having signed an exciting mega-rookie. But what's this? Max Mosley and the FIA have immediately refused Raikkonen a superlicence saying he was too young and inexperienced, and potentially very dangerous. Even at the time I found this ridiculous and unjust. The way I see it, if a person can do the job, regardless of age, gender, anything else, then they can do the job - no argument! This row raged on for ages until Max finally got his way.

The really bad thing about this was that Raikkonen had turned down a good drive at either Manor Motorsport in British F3 or for Dr Marko's Red Bull Jr F3000 team for 2001, I can't quite remember which one. But by the time the FIA finally demanded no, the drive had been filled and it looked like Raikkonen would be out of a proper drive altogether.

The F1 seat was essentially confirmed for Luca Badoer, so much so that I ran him in my GP2 seasons, 19th and marginally ahead of Alonso.

Thankfully, weeks or even months later, Raikkonen was reinstated but given a stern probation for 4 races - one slip and you're out. So Kimi, with 23 British Formula Renault races behind him, went into his first F1 season with many burning eyes practically willing him to fail.

Those eyes were soon filled with tears as their doomsday prophecies turned out to be so much trash, as Raikkonen came 6th on debut. His season amazed me so much, I never imagined anything like it.

You have to remember I only really got into F1 in time for 1998, so I had never witnessed an amazing debut season. I only knew of Takagi, Tuero, de la Rosa, Zonta etc. So when Jenson Button came and had the season he had in 2000, I found this utterly amazing, to the point where at the time I thought he could go on to be the best driver ever, ahead of Moss, Fangio etc...

In 2001 I was even more shocked as Kimi, imo, had an even more impressive debut season. He didn't have the overall 3rd best car after all and only scored 3pts less than Jenson.

Full credit to Michael Schumacher, who always believed Raikkonen should have a chance. And shame on Mika Salo, who with his usual swearing negative style railed against Raikkonen, then had to sit and watch as Kimi put in a first season which imo was at least at the level, probably higher than any season Salo had had.

PROST
Like everyone else, I expected some improvement here with Ferrari engines. However, I was one of the few who never bought the testing times and the hype. Autosport tipped Alesi as an outsider for victory at Melbourne, as at the time, there were concerns about the reliability of both the McLaren and the Ferrari. I never accepted any of this, and instead tipped Prost for a season garnering about 5pts, with Alesi a little behind Heidfeld, not matching the lofty expectations, but nevertheless having a much more respectable season. I tipped Mazzacane to average 1sec off Alesi.

For a long time, the drive looked like going to Spanish CART driver Oriol Servia, who I rooted for, or Bernoldi, with Mazzacane in the mix too. For much of my GP2 seasons I had Servia in the 2nd Prost.

ARROWS
At the time I rated Peugeot fairly highly, believing their figure of 792bhp the year before. Therefore, this seemed like an increase over the Supertec, so I thought Arrows would make a slight improvement, though others would improve more. I didn't know that Asiatech would only achieve reliability by detuning the ex-Peugeot engine so it had only 750bhp iirc.

There was an uproar when Pedro de la Rosa was dumped for Bernoldi, who was placed by Red Bull. A real shame for Pedro but Enrique was unfairly maligned and didn't deserve that. I liked Enrique as his 2000 F3000 season impressed me. He was pretty much the best and most consistent qualifier of all, against more experienced and highly rated drivers, though he only scored 5pts through a mix of poor racing and terrible, terrible misfortune mechanically. He turned out closer to Verstappen than expected though I think Jos underperformed.

So a slightly weaker season than 2000, but still good I thought it would be.

MINARDI
Unknown and to me, surprisingly unheralded Spaniard Fernando Alonso was signed for Minardi in late 2000, having only recently turned 19. He would bring sponsorship that could save Minardi, who suddenly and inexplicably had gone from having a good year with one of THE best chassis in F1(!) and a Supertec deal in their pocket, to being about to close down.

Thanfully Stoddy saved the day. The Minardi seat was the final seat to be resolved. Enrique Bernoldi was such a shoe-in for a drive at one point, I had him in my GP2 season. Then since due to money, Alonso couldn't be confirmed, he was set to be announced alongside Mark Webber at Super Nova for a 2nd season of F3000.

At the time, strangely now, Giorgio Pantano was THE next big name, and McLaren and Ferrari (the dominant teams of 2000) engaged in a battle to secure him on a long-term contract, joined by Flavio Briatore at Benetton too! At one point, he was 99.99% for a race seat at Minardi (who I had given a blue/white/Telefonica lime green (and maybe an extra colour or two) livery) so Pantano and Bernoldi were my drivers in Grand Prix 2.

By late January though I think I'd realised the cars were going to be black(?) Now with Alonso confirmed, there was a new twist regarding 2nd seat, the last to be filled in F1. The seat would go to a mystery experienced driver who has driven in F1 before! Wooooooo who would it be? The 2 drivers in contention were eventually revealed to be Tarso Marques and Gianni Morbidelli!! I was begging for Morbidelli who was dreaming of a comeback, but was still happy to see Marques back! It really felt like a strange good dream somehow, a strange good feel about it.

Back then, Marques was highly rated, for driving his appaling Swift chassis in CART and for qualifying 14th ahead of Martin Brundle at Argentina '96. He was regarded as a driver with potential. I thought he could even match or beat Alonso after settling back in. He was one of the biggest unknowns to me in terms of potential. At the time, despite witnessing Alonso in F3000 I didn't realise how good he was. As it turned out, Marques "couldn't drive a nail into a piece of wood" (lol).

That's about that then. *Checks Post* Wow I got carried away. I just love living in the past.

steveaki13

8th May 2014, 12:50

I didnt predict back then but in for 2001, but I remember hoping to see Arrows, Prost and Minardi doing better in 2001.

I mean Arrows had scored a few points in 2000 with the lovely looking Orange Arrows livery, and after seeing Jos da Boss running 2nd in Malaysia in the early stages. I hoped and thought Arrows might often run the light fuel and even get regular 5ths and 6th and maybe the odd podium.
Alas that never happened. Bernoldi seemed alot better in 2002 and Verstappen despite that incredible drive in Sepang 2nd & 3rd then battling for points with Hakkinen and Frentzen finished 7th there and again in Austria he ran in the top 3, and did I think score a 6th then.

Prost - As you stated Rj, they had set stunning lap records at Barcelona in Pre Season, but come the season it was soon clear they were poor (Comparatively). Although a step forward from 2000 and the Yahoo Prost. In 2001 Mazzacane (who I loved at the time) showed really how out of his depth he was. Despite matching Gene at times in 2000, he was in a better car for 2001 and was still racing Minardi's. Although I think he deserved a bit more time. He retired without us seeing him on TV in Australia, then ran at the back racing Marques in Malaysia who actually was ahead of Alonso at times there. Then in Brazil in retired from the back and in San Marino he started 19th and ran 21st on lap 1 after a poor start (bearing in mind Marques failed to Qualify). He then retired with engine failure or something. So 4 races and 3 retirements and he gets fired for underperforming which seems a little unfair. Burti didnt do much better. Or Enge one of the most forgotten about F1 drivers. Anyway Alesi score a few points which was nice and I always wonder what could have happened in Spa had Frentzen started from his 4th on the Grid, bearing in mind Fisi finished 3rd and both Williams retired.However the team never looked like back in the 1997-1999 days.

Minardi - I always supported Minardi since I was wee in the mid 90s and followed F1. For 2000 they had a great little car but rubbish 'hamster', but for 2001 I was all new and seemed a bit on a rushed job which was sad. I believed Alonso would win out, just because he was being raved about in the press. Marques showed why he was sacked by seasons end, failing to qualify two or three times? Replaced by Yoong who was hardly a step forward.

I am quite enhoying this thinking back and giving thoughts on past seasons. I might do some more if no body minds.

steveaki13

8th May 2014, 13:19

My other impressions that I had going in 2001 from what I can remember is of how I was sure Jordan would improve on 2000 and get back to 1999 form. (How wrong was I).

Jordan - I saw the opening gird of 2001 and saw Frentzen 3rd and Trulli 5th and thought Jordan may well be in for loads of Podiums in 2001, however by San Marino and Spain it was clear 3rd in the WCC was not on and 4th would be a good achievement. Which they failed in. I always liked Frentzen and hoped he would win a race or two in 2001, Trulli was just getting his Trulli Train reputation at that time from what I remember. All in all I was sad at their season, but it would only get worse from there, apart from the lucky win in 2003.

Ferrari - I thought they would win the title again and they did. However after Barrichello's first win in 2000, I thought he would be closer to Schumacher in 2001 and win some more races. He never did though. In fact we was rarely even 2nd. I cant add much more.

Mclaren - I dont think anyone saw Hakkinen only having 9 points after 7 or 8 races in 2001 and Coulthard being so far ahead. Although Hakkinen won a couple of races in the second half of the season, I believed we would see him back in 2003, but it never happened. I was a fan of DC at the time and was so happy that he was a title contdender, but the fact was Ferrari were unbeatable in 2001, I hoped 2002 would be DC's year but Ferrari just got better.

Williams - I cant really remember but it was like a new dawn in 2001. Williams were back and fast, but at the price of reliability. I believed after winning some races Williams would win a Championship with BMW and maybe with Montoya. Clearly far from right. I loved the fact that BMW's engine was massively powerful but would explode alot. It made every race they lead exciting. Wondering if the could make it. As it was Montoya underachieved in 2001.

Sauber - What a season they had. 4th in the WCC and a podium to boot. I remember not thinking much about them and how Heidfeld would go and yet after that season looking back. Heidfeld did a great job. He was often best of the midfield and along with Kimi who I remember first being amazed by at Austria where he ran 3rd for a while and held Schumacher off for a few laps and then ran all race 4th and finished there. At the time though I thought Heidfeld should have been given the Mclaren drive.

Jaguar - I always loved the Jaguar cars. The 2001 car looked sweeeet....., however they were nearly always slow. I remember in 2000 I fantasied about Jaguar winning races and being a front runner and I believed Murray Walkers hype I guess that despite it taking time they would get it right. (If only Red Bull now were still Jaguars)
Anyway I remember enjoying Irvines podium in Monaco, but other than that I dont remember much about them in 2001.

BAR - I never really had any feelings for BAR until 2003 when the car looked nicer and JB had a decent season. I always thought Villeneuve was over rated. He was a world Champion in a decent Williams, but in 98-his career end he rarely looked great. He may have been fast at times, but often spun or made contact. Panis I was happy to see back, and was thrilled to see his 4th in Australia before it was taken away.

Finally Benetton which holds a special place in 2001 for me for two reasons.

The first starts with my father working for English Electric Valve, which around 99-2000 was taken over by Marconi, they then began sponsoring Benneton in 2000 and into 2001. I was excited that a company my father worked for was involved in F1, however he said Marconi were ruining his company he worked for and thus when the 2001 Benetton was such a pig, we laughed and said it was just like the EEV company he worked for. Ever since we joke about how Marconi killed Benetton in that 2001 season, so it just always makes me chuckle.

Anyway the second reason actually makes my annoyed and sad. With the above in mind, one weekend Marconi factory in Chelmsford (where Dad worked) were going to have a fun day and a full 2000 Benetton from the season before was was going to appear at the factory and Dad as he worked there was able to get me a change to sit in it and have a real close look at it. However the date was up in the air and as it turned out we were going on a family holiday the day before and so I never got my chance to see up close and sit in an F1 car.

I still regret it until this day.

jens

8th May 2014, 15:50

It was mostly because I believed the hype Ford were making, with Jac Nasser and Wolfgang Reitzle talking about a sea of green at Silverstone (meaning the crowd wearing Jaguar gear like all the tifosi wear red). I remember in hindsight some magazine said basically "Ford's attitude was pretty much 'Ferrari had better watch out'". I expected Jaguar would make good progress after Stewart's 1999 and have a strong car, though unreliable; almost as strong as the Ferrari, with a more powerful engine. Also, 3 race wins for Irvine and more podiums, but not much more points in a very win-or-bust season, because I just thought the season had to be even more crazy than 99.

I wanted to make one more comment on Irvine-Jaguar stuff. I think one problem was that even Irvine got a bit overrated in 1999/2000, even people in the know got a bit carried away! Basically he was treated like a top driver, who is going to take Jaguar to the heights. If we recall his salary, it was huge. Eddie was one of the best paid drivers on the grid after M.Schumacher.

Irvine had been a title contender in 1999 as a result of various circumstances, which made him look good. The reality was that Irvine was most probably actually a step back from Stewart/Jaguar's previos driver Barrichello, who was younger and proved to be closer to M.Schumacher than Irvine had been.

Other one was Salo. Two very good drives and podiums for Ferrari raised his stock and was subsequently hired by Sauber. His stock was never before or after as high as after Germany in 1999, when it was discussed that perhaps Salo could replace Irvine himself to become second driver to M.Schumacher in 2000!

jens

8th May 2014, 15:54

By the way, what about past driver ratings?:D

Once I happened to read my mid-2001 driver ratings. It was an interesting list: My top 6 drivers at the time were: M.Schumacher, Häkkinen, Villeneuve, R.Schumacher, Trulli, Alesi.

Interesting I left out Fisichella, because I rated him very highly at the time. Maybe I forgot since he was so far back on the grid. And certainly I knew he had beaten R.Schumacher in the Jordan in 1997.

I wasn't impressed with Barrichello and Coulthard, viewing them as underperforming in top teams.

Montoya, Heidfeld, Räikkönen, Alonso weren't "experienced enough" yet in my view, needing more to prove before getting rated high.

I wasn't really fond of Button at the time with his a bit of a playboy image and considered him overrated.

rjbetty

8th May 2014, 16:33

Despite that incredible drive in Sepang 2nd & 3rd then battling for points with Hakkinen and Frentzen finished 7th there and again in Austria he ran in the top 3, and did I think score a 6th then.

Yeah Jos grabbed the only point at A1 ring. That Malaysia drive was amazing and it was sad he just missed out in the end. That race was amazing. It would never be allowed to run now. All those cars going off track would be considered far too dangerous. There looked to be a chance Verstappen could even win, certainly a good chance of a podium. The 2001 Arrows was dog slow with a very basic front wing just stuck on last years car, and a weak engine, though much more reliable.

Prost - Although a step forward from 2000 and the Yahoo Prost. In 2001 Mazzacane (who I loved at the time) showed really how out of his depth he was. Despite matching Gene at times in 2000, he was in a better car for 2001 and was still racing Minardi's. Although I think he deserved a bit more time.

Yeah I really liked him too and was sad to see him lose his drive. But frankly and sadly, his gulf to Alesi kinda showed that maybe Gené was quite poor, as though Gaston only outqualified Marc 3 times, he averaged 0.6-0.7off which for a rookie isn't too bad. Alain Prost said Gaston had to qualify within 0.5sec off Alesi in at least 1 of the first 4 races. I knew that was unlikely... Frankly, I think Alesi was quite poor by 2001, outqualified by Burti 3 times in 8 races, starting 20th in Austria. But most telling was his gulf to Trulli in his final races for Jordan. Even more telling was that Frentzen was noticeably quicker in the Prost, and almost as quick in the Prost as Alesi was in he Jordan, though his race pace was lacking.

I am quite enhoying this thinking back and giving thoughts on past seasons. I might do some more if no body minds.

I wouldn't be surprised if dj has some problem with it, but I don't. Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I liked it.

steveaki13

8th May 2014, 18:59

Firstly I will just explain a bit about my F1 viewing history.

I have all GPs since 1989 now so have watched them all again, but

I started watch F1 in 91/92 however only being 5 or 6 I cant really recall much and probably didnt see much. My Dad watched it and I did too.

93-95 I remember from the time but didnt really make season wide thoughts about it.

its only about 1996 that I could say I though alot about season when I was 10/11.

Anyways I thought I would share my thoughts and views on 2000.

Ferrari - I actually believed that Schumacher could do it in 2000 and he did. I think it was a few things. Schumacher would be (hopefully) racing a whole season unlike 1999 and based on the fact that Irvine nearly took the title and Ferrari did win the WCC. I surmised that Ferrari had had the fastest car in 1999 and thus believed with Schumacher strong and Barrichello who I rated higher than Irvine. I was confident they could win it. As it turned out I was right, but Mclaren had some unrealiability too.

Mclaren - I think everyone saw them as the potential title winners too. It turned out in some ways to be DC's best season 3 wins and a title challenge until 3 or 4 races from the end. Although 2001 he finished 2nd. So its a close call but 2000-2001 were his best years. Hakkinen I felt was fortunate to win his second title in 1999 as I stated above I believe Ferrari's car was best and I believe had Schumacher not broken his leg he would have been champion.

Jordan - Wow I was so excited about Jordan. They had finished 3rd in WCC in 1999 and now with there brighter yellow (which as a 14 year old really got me going) I was sure Trulli and Frentzen would win multiple races in 2000. My first real error in 2000. They looked OK early on but never got the results. In Monaco I was pumped 2nd and 4th was it? Anyway I was loving it but as we know I jinxed them. :p Anyway I loved Jordan but was hugely disappointed in them after 1999.

Williams - I had no clue pre season I dont think. I mean in 99, Zanardi had been awful 0points and Ralf had scored 30odd. So was the 1999 Williams good or poor? I didnt know. I was pretty unmoved by BMW coming in initially, but it soon became apparent that Williams were moving forward. Jenson Button made me keen to see them move forward. Never massively loved Williams before that. When I had been younger in the mid 90s they were always winning and I like underdogs. Then in 98-99 they had sunk and were not massively stunning. It was really 2000 I took note with JB arriving and then 2001 with that stonking car and engine.

BAR - I always loved seeing new teams in F1, and so in 1999 when that new bright livery appeared I really loved them. However by 2000 I was less interested. The white livery was dull, but I think we all knew they would improve and score some points. However 4 4th places (i admit it I looked it up) and some 5ths and 6ths for Jacques was impressive. Zonta I always liked but he never really cut it in F1.

Jaguar - I was in love with the Idea and livery of Jaguar. I guessed they would win races one day (which as Red Bull they did), but my youthful hopes were soon dashed. The only things I recall about Jaguar in 2000 was Irvines 4th in Monaco and Herberts crash in Malaysia. They just rarely were seen from what I remember.

Benetton- I liked Fisichella and Wurz, but was disappointed with Benetton. I kept hoping they would return to mid 90s kind of levels, but they never did. I do remember there exciting podiums in Monaco and Canada. That was actually 2 great results when you look at it. Fisichella showing his class to find his way around the action and finish 3rd.

Prost - My goodness Prost were poor. I remember having a 2000 F1 game and Prosts raced Minardi every race at the back. I think they raced a bit further up than that, but I know that it did nothing for Heidfeld's rep.

Sauber- Salo and Diniz. Meh... the line up wasnt great and the best memory I have about them was in Brazil when they withdrew and got hit by flying ad boards.

Arrows- I was so pleased to see Arrows produce a decent car. 7 points and a 7th in the WCC was fantastic. I always found that 2000 car and brilliant car with great livery. Thus one of my favourite cars of all time. Dela Rosa actually impressed me in 1999 in a bad Arrows, but looked like he might get a BAR type drive but sadly it never happened.

Minardi- Finally Minardi. What a decent car for Minardi and another nice livery. The engine was heavy and rubbish, but Mazzacane (maybe it was the name) captured my imagination and I was always following both he and Gene's progress. I remember the USA GP when Hakkinen followed Gaston for about 3 laps and Murray Walker was muddled about blue flags. haha.
Anyway I actually believed the would score points pre season, but sadly they just didnt have enough pace. 3 8th places was the best they could manage. I remember the wet European GP and I was hoping a couple of cars would go bang or spin off. Mazzacane running 8th in the rain was so close to the points.

jens

8th May 2014, 22:12

Yeah it's funny to recall expectations. Now I remember, when it was announced that Heidfeld would switch from Prost to Sauber, I was a bit relieved even if not happy. It was even announced Heidfeld would get a 3-year-deal at Sauber, which was disappointing as I had hoped Heidfeld would get McLaren seat soon.

But I was relieved, because I was thinking "all right at least in Sauber he can score points." Because I had seen Prost in 1998 and 2000 and them being absolutely useless, while Sauber always had at least a solid car in which you could score points from time to time.

When it was announced that Button joins Benetton from Williams, I thought "That's a step backwards, for sure." I didn't take the Benetton-Renault 2001 hype seriously, because in my mind Renault re-joined in 2002 and before that they were still the "privateer underwhelming downward-spiral Benetton."

I also find it interesting guys that you were fond of the likes of Mazzacane, Marques, Zonta, etc. I personally didn't care much about them and I disliked Zonta, because he took out Michael Schumacher in Austria and I didn't forgive him that!

But I really-really liked other underdog drivers, who showed some serious speed at times, but really most of the time didn't have the machinery, consistency or were just unlucky. Most notably Verstappen, but also de la Rosa. I liked Salo too and didn't find his signing for Sauber uninspiring. He had a reputation of a very consistent driver and was a Monaco expert and I thought this should yield Sauber some points. And he duly did score 6 points in 2000, tying with Trulli in the championship for P10. Considering Trulli was faster most of the time, this confrimed to me, how unlucky had Trulli been that year. And how Salo had capitalized on every opportunity that year. Even after the Austria start chaos he was 3rd after the start for a short time. And in Hockenheim wet-weather-mess scored points too. And of course got points at Monaco again, like he did for Tyrrell and Arrows.

Also, well... Back then I rated Monaco as really-really important place to showcase driver skill. And I remember I rated drivers like Fisichella, Trulli, Alesi, Salo highly also because they went very well at Monaco. I remember Trulli was always quick there, Fisichella got podiums, Alesi qualified the rubbish Prost an awesome 7th in 2000. I remember thinking - "now this is where the very talented drivers finally can show what they are really made of despite rubbish car." Alesi was also running in 4th and 5th in Belgium that year after a bit of a moisty-slippery conditions early in the race. I was again overjoyed - "when it gets wet, master like Alesi capitalizes." Sadly he retired again, because the car had no reliability at all, like BAR in 1999 had been.

rjbetty

9th May 2014, 08:12

Wow I was so excited about Jordan. They had finished 3rd in WCC in 1999 and now with there brighter yellow (which as a 14 year old really got me going) I was sure Trulli and Frentzen would win multiple races in 2000. My first real error in 2000. They looked OK early on but never got the results. In Monaco I was pumped 2nd and 4th was it? Anyway I was loving it but as we know I jinxed them. :p Anyway I loved Jordan but was hugely disappointed in them after 1999.

I felt exactly the same way abut everything you said. I loved all the colour schemes from 2000, they were so bright and unique, unlike 2014!! I liked the triangle airbox on the Jordan - that car looked lean and quick. A real shame about old Mugen-Honda engines. For 2000 I didn't want to believe this would have an impact, but it must have cost Jordan at least 1/4 sec.

BAR - The white livery was dull, but I think we all knew they would improve and score some points. However 4 4th places (i admit it I looked it up) and some 5ths and 6ths for Jacques was impressive. Zonta I always liked but he never really cut it in F1.

I liked the BAR livery. I tend to like white cars. The silver flashes looked great, and the whole car looked much more powerful and serious, whereas the mess (which I liked) of 99 reflected their chaotic season.
s -

Jaguar - The only things I recall about Jaguar in 2000 was Irvines 4th in Monaco and Herberts crash in Malaysia. They just rarely were seen from what I remember.

Yes this is what I remember too. I also remember Irvine mostly qualifying in the top 10. He was 7th fastest overall most of the season, but the car fell away later on, and Irvine ended up 9th, about +1.18sec off on average...

I remember being shocked at how badly Herbert was doing, having expected some great performances from him. His qualifying was shocking, starting 20th, 17th, 17th and 14th for the first races, and not scoring points all season.

Sadly, Irvine missed Austria due to stomach illness, replaced by Burti. Herbert ended up qualifying 16th and chasing Mika Salo home just missing out in 7th. Given Irvine usually went well at the A1 Ring, he would probably have scored rare points...

Also, Herbert drove well in Malaysia, running in the points and looking good for 6th until a suspension failure put him in the wall. He hurt himself and had to be carried out of the car - just as he was carried into his first one in 1989 due to his serious injury.

Benetton- I do remember there exciting podiums in Monaco and Canada. That was actually 2 great results when you look at it. Fisichella showing his class to find his way around the action and finish 3rd.

It was 3 podiums! Fisi came 3rd in Brazil too, beating the Jordans, but was promoted to 2nd. It was a better yeah than 1999, though ruined by a pathetic final few races, maybe due to a bad testing crash...

Sauber- Salo and Diniz. Meh... the line up wasnt great and the best memory I have about them was in Brazil when they withdrew and got hit by flying ad boards.

I was always VERY fond of Sauber, and just loved their lush livery. It looked even better in 2000 (a far cry from now!) I was also fond of Salo as a driver, and his helmet suited any car he drove. Both drivers' helmets suited the car. I remember being so excited at how strong that car was early in the season - it was right up there! Salo qualified 10th in Australia, beating Ralf. I always remember at the start he got up to a strong 7th and ran there for a long time. Later on, he was on for an easy podium in 3rd before the pit stops went wrong, sending him tumbling down. He recovered to 6th but was then disqualified by that Bauer guy (not Jack) who DSQd the Ferraris for their bargeboards in Malaysia 99.

Sauber then looked mega fast in Brazil until the wings failed. Then at Imola they started 10th and 12th, Diniz ahead, and Salo raced well, chasing Villeneuve the whole race for 5th. It fell away after that. Though I liked Salo, I didn't particularly rate him.

Minardi- Finally Minardi. What a decent car for Minardi and another nice livery. The engine was heavy and rubbish, but Mazzacane (maybe it was the name) captured my imagination and I was always following both he and Gene's progress. I remember the USA GP when Hakkinen followed Gaston for about 3 laps and Murray Walker was muddled about blue flags. haha.

OhmeGosh I remember the first time I clocked that livery. I was appalled and sickened and couldn't believe they were going to race that. But then it really grew on me and is now a favourite. Yeah I totally remember Indy 2000 too. When the weather changed, many drivers stopped, leaving M.Schumacher leading, Diniz 2nd(!), Mazzacane 3rd(!!) chased by Hakkinen who was angry about not being let through, not realising he was RACING Mazzacane. The order stayed like that for some time, i.e. more than just 1 lap.

jens

9th May 2014, 10:07

Yes this is what I remember too. I also remember Irvine mostly qualifying in the top 10. He was 7th fastest overall most of the season, but the car fell away later on, and Irvine ended up 9th, about +1.18sec off on average...

Yeah Irvine's start into the season was actually pretty promising. He qualified 6th in Brazil and made a great start and was right after the McLarens and Ferraris. Watching that I didn't understand, why did newspaper predict Jaguar form to be "2", because to me Jaguar seemed clearly in contention for points.

But Irvine spun off and really for whatever reason points rarely came that year despite them looking promising speed-wise. He often seemed racing in about 7th or 8th and in races without attrition just missed out of points.

A bit like BAR-Villeneuve combo had been in 1999. Qualified a very promising 5th in San Marino, then ran 3rd in Spain, but this potential didn't materialize in points.

rjbetty

10th May 2014, 08:51

Really for whatever reason points rarely came that year despite them looking promising speed-wise. He often seemed racing in about 7th or 8th and in races without attrition just missed out of points.
.

Yeah I remember they had major clutch problems and almost always started badly. This meant whereas Irvine qualified 7th-10th he could be running 10th - 13th in the race, and from there it was just hard to make up enough ground.

For 2001, Jaguar maybe looked slightly less chaotic, but frankly the car was dog slow, Irvine qualifying on average a massive +1.867sec off M.Schumacher. That's half a sec slower than Heidfeld's Sauber!

However in the races, Irvine said the Jaguar was maybe the 4th best car! This was largely unnoticed but looking closely this seems true. They finished 7th and 8th at Nurburgring, Irvine right on Hakkinen's tail. Eddie also missed out thrugh unreliability, which used to eist back then. Looking at all his potential results withut problems, he should have finished about 9th or better every time.

Also unnoticed was that even though Irvine was outqualified 6 times in a row(!) by Pedro de la Rosa mid season, in the entire time as team-mates de la Rosa never finished a race ahead iirc...

jens

10th May 2014, 09:07

Yeah I remember they had major clutch problems and almost always started badly. This meant whereas Irvine qualified 7th-10th he could be running 10th - 13th in the race, and from there it was just hard to make up enough ground.

Maybe an apt comparison would be 2007 Toyota. Trulli often qualified into top 10, but the car wasn't good off the line, hence Trulli often lost positions and really didn't make it into point-scoring positions often.

jens

10th May 2014, 09:11

So… what about 2002? Funny, but the thoughts from that time are much better recognizable, because I got Internet during 2001 and started writing up opinions, so that I can still check them even today.:D I once checked my old comments from that era and it was interesting insight.

I remember thinking in mid-2001 that the 2002 championship was going to be fought between Schumacher brothers. As we remember, in mid-01 they were often fighting for race wins, but the points gap was so big already due to Williams inconsistency and unreliability. But Williams seemed likely to improve even further in 2002 as they had arguably the best engine as rumoured back then and the partnership of Williams-BMW-Michelin still seemed in a "build-up phase" and had not peaked. However, late 2001 re-adjusted the driver expectation and after the year it looked like Montoya was going to be Schumacher's main rival in 2002 instead of brother. With Ralf Schumacher perhaps ending up 3rd in drivers championship and the disappointing Barrichello in 4th.

I didn't expect much from the McLaren, they seemed to have entered a bit of a downward-spiral. But I genuinely thought Räikkönen could show up Coulthard. I didn't rate DC highly at the time. Even though I considered it possible for DC to score more points due to "experience and consistency".

However, thought the first three teams would be well above others, like in 2001. Based on the back of the strong end of 2001 Renault seemed likely to become 4th best team, but going to fight it out against Jordan-Honda with the ever-impressive Fisichella and also the ever-consistent Sauber. I had lost all hopes on BAR and Jaguar and didn't expect much from them. Arrows was thought the be its usual underdog self with a few surprising performances put in here or there. And Minardi at the back. Toyota? I think I didn't expect great things from the first year even if I thought they could get far up the field in the long-run. Perhaps in lower midfield with improved performance in the second half of the year.

journeyman racer

10th May 2014, 12:05

Since a lot has been written about it already. I'll give a brief summary of my thoughts of 2000/01, before we start moving on.

2000

- I thought it was a pretty good season all up. A threeway title battle, where each of the contenders (Schumacher, Hakkinen and Coulthard) had their time as the in form driver. Obviously it was best known for Ferrari breaking their driver's title drought, which I suppose eventually they were going to get.

- David Coulthard. Despite finisher higher in the standings the next year, I actually thought this was his best year. A personal best of 3 wins, and he remained in genuine title contention for longer than any other season. It was also the year he survived the plane crash, then finished 2nd in Spain a few days later!

- After a sensational 99 from HHF, I was totally bummed by the downhill spiral of for from the Jordan. I wasn't expecting HHF to be as consistent as 99 (How could anyone be?), but I was expecting him to have at least a slightly better performing car to counter it. Despite the dnf, the performance in Melbourne was encouraging. But it was a false dawn :(

steveaki13

10th May 2014, 12:07

I cant say I ever predicted Ferrari to be so dominant in 2002. I remember thinking they would win it though.

Ferrari - I was disappointed in Barrichello in 2001. I thought he would have won some more races, so I had fell slightly out of love with Rubens after always being a fan of his and I would be against, but I remember 2001 being frustrating. Remember Ferrari started with the 2001 car and still won the opening round and so from then I thought "more domination then", but that was followed by Malaysia and Ralf dominated, so suddenly hope that the season would be even, then the new car arrived and apart from Monaco it was never beaten. I can still remember the uproar after Austria 2002 like it was yesterday. Schumacher had a massive lead, but I actually always accepted the team orders, it was all the podium stuff which was most Stupid.

Williams - After 2001 I was really hopeful that Williams would challenge for the title. Obviously way off there, but Montoya impressed. I mean he had 5 or 6 poles in a row. The talk at the time though was 6 poles and lead only once after lap 1 I think. That was quite a bizarre run of circumstances. I mean I seem to remember quite often Montoya was 3rd and 0.600 off the pace and suddenly he would put in a single lap that took pole and no one could quite believe it.
Ralf really didnt stand out in 2002 for me. I know he won the Malaysian GP, but I seem to think he went missing far too often.

Mclaren - I actually thought Mclaren would be the match of Ferrari again after 2001. In the first race Mclaren looked OK, when Coulthard was leading before problems hit his car and Kimi on his first run was 3rd. However the pace as we know just wasnt there. DC was my favourite driver at the time and I blindly believed he would challenge for the title and I didnt see Kimi beating him. Which for 2002 he didnt. Remember in the early 2002 Mclaren struggled to even get ahead of Renault. I remember being really interested in that fight maybe more than the lead battles. Maybe it was a DC v JB thing?

Renault - From testing there was more optimism about Renault after the disaster 2001 as Benetton. I was sad to see Fisichella go but I liked Trulli too and I rated Trulli higher than Button at that time. I mean Button had a decent 2000 in a Williams, but was thrashed by Fisichella in 2001. While Trulli had raced further up generally in his career.
However it wasnt long before JB showed Trulli the way. My stand out memory was Buttons run in Malaysia, he was on for an easy podium, but his car broke and dropped to 4th on the last lap. I found a new respect for Button in 2002. He outperformed Trulli and was unlucky to get the sack for 2003. Trulli though did better later in the season. 4th from the back in Italy and a similar situation in the US GP.

Jordan - This was the last season I held Jordan in high regard. Coming into 2002 I was still holding onto Jordans 1999 and decent 2000 form. 2001 had been the third season in a row when I expected them to be in the top cars but they had got worse each season. I liked the look of the 2002 car and once more thought maybe they would rise again and fight regularly for points. However as we know, that didnt work out and it was the first season really they drifted towards the lower midfield. I mean Sato was always in the mid late teens. It was mostly Fisichella that rescued their season in the fight with BAR. He scored 3 5th's in a row mid season and a 4th somewhere I seem to remember.

BAR - A really poor season for BAR. After 99 and 0 points, 2000 and 2001 had been steps up. However 2002 they were not fast and unreliable. I remember Panis not finishing any of the first 6 or 7 races and some huge Honda Blow ups (with Jordan too). The only stand out races I remember of 2002 for BAR were Villeneuve and Panis in a wet British GP. 4th and 5th I believe. Also Villeneuve's race in Austria. He pushed the car all day passing people and was on a light strategy and just kept pushing all day. Then blew up on the last lap.

Sauber - I though Sauber would be back to lower midfield for 2002 after 4th in WCC in 2001, but in fairness they were again up there and scored regular points albeit no where near as many as 2001.However 2001 had given everyone more belief in Heidfeld and Massa was unknown. However Massa was massively fun to watch. Remember how aggressive his driving style was and he was constantly spinning and crashing. Silverstone he spun 3 times in the first half of the race. Their 4th and 5th in Spain was brilliant.

Jaguar - I hoped again for Jaguar but after Oz qualifying where they were 19th and 20th and +4.2 and +4.4 off the pace. Behind Webber's Minardi and only ahead of Sato because of issues. The race was great though with Irvine on his own all afternoon to finish 4th out of 7 finishers. The first 2/3's of the season was rubbish, and I will never quite understand what happened in Italy. All of a sudden both Jaguars were really fast and obviously Irvine getting that shock podium. Another false dawn.

Arrows - Such a sad season and could never have expected anything like that. I thought the Arrows looked decent and hoped for a 2000 style season as opposed to a 2001. I thought Bernoldi didnt deserve the seat really after a non discript 2001 but in fairness to him he improved and had some decent races in 2002. Remember him repassing Michael Schumacher in Malaysia. Frentzen was good too in a car which after watching a few races clearly wasnt fast. It was such a shame he retired at Silverstone. Remember it was wet and on bridgestone tyres he was passing all the Michelin runners and could have been on for a 4th or 5th. Anyway even when the withdrew I honestly believed they would be saved and arrive at the next race. I was so sad at the beginning of 2003 when no new Arrows turned up.

Minardi - As ever I went into 2002 expecting minardi to be last, but in fairness Webber got that Minardi up the field quite often. Out qualifying Jags and Toyota's at times. Of course Australia 2002 was a dream. The amount of coverage both Minardi's got was fantastic and to see Webber and Yoong fighting against Salo late in the race was great. Webber getting 5th was great. I always felt slightly sorry for Yoong. 7th of 7th. Tough luck. I remember hoping one of the top 3 would retire.

Toyota - In my ignorance I assumed Toyota would be off the pace and last at the early races after joining the circus. However they had Salo who we all knew was a decent driver. McNish I didnt know much about. They both did well and actually achieved better results in the early races. Salo scoring a 6th in Australia and Brazil. While McNish should have scored a 6th in Malaysia but the team muddled up the tyres. Again in Spain he ran strongly.

steveaki13

10th May 2014, 12:09

journeyman racer

10th May 2014, 12:17

- It was half way through this season that the Ferrari juggernaut started barrelling along.

- An unbelievable lack of form from Hakkinen, that was compounded by the mechanical problem on the last lap denying him a certain win in Spain.

- The re-emergence of Williams. 4 wins was good. Ralf had a good win over his brother in Canada. The emphatic display of BMW power at Hockenheim. Montoya's first win in Italy (a bit anti-climactic of the back of 9/11). Could've been 5, with JPM leading comfortably before Verstappen cannoned into him.

rjbetty

11th May 2014, 12:31

The time gaps had opened out quite a bit in 2001 from 2000. For example, Alesi's Prost averaged about +1.865sec off in 2000 I think, and was only 18th best, yet in 2001, it was about +2.4sec, yet this was an improvement to 14th overall. Still I found the season interesting enough and liked it.

For 2002, having now realised in 2001 that new regulations cause big gaps between teams to open out (2001 was a bit Noah's ark so to speak), which always closed up gradually over subsequent season of no major rule changes.

This was the theory I always believed anyway - and amazingly it's only since last year I'm re-evaluating this!

Because of the stable regs for 2002, I expected a closing up in the field over the previous season - therefore it would be more competitive and interesting.

MY EXPECTED AVERAGE QUALIFYING 2002, BEFORE SEASON
1.M.Schumacher (Ferrari)
2.Montoya (Williams) +0.20
3.R.Schumacher (Williams) +0.27
4.Coulthard (McLaren) +0.40
5.Barrichello (Ferrari) +0.44
6.Fisichella (Jordan) +0.64
7.Raikkonen (McLaren) +0.71
8.Trulli (Renault) +0.97
9.Heidfeld (Sauber) +1.00
10.Massa (Sauber) +1.16
11.Panis (BAR) +1.20
12.Button (Renault) +1.24
13.Irvine (Jaguar) +1.24
14.Frentzen (Arrows) +1.24
15.Villeneuve (BAR) +1.26
16.Sato (Jordan) +1.26
17.de la Rosa (Jaguar) +1.47
18.Bernoldi (Arrows) +1.64
19.Salo (Toyota) +2.00
20.Webber (Minardi) +2.24
21.McNish (Toyota) +2.42
22.Yoong (Minardi) +3.01

FERRARI
No huge doubts over which team and driver would be the best again. Barrichello disappointed me in 2001, being a huge +0.560sec off Schumacher. This seemed due to the new wings making cars harder to drive, causing the gaps between the elite drivers and the good to open out. This shattered my illusion of Barrichello being THAT good. He could be that good, but only occasionally. So for this year I expected him to improve slightly, but basically more of the same.

MCLAREN
There was a great noise about this being DC's year, and that Adrian Newey had built a monster. But while I was wary of a McLaren comeback for 2001, I never saw it this time. I liked DC at this time - he had come on very well from 98-99, but just could not envisage a title challenge, though I thought maybe 2 wins. As for Kimi, in my bad understanding, even though he had done very well at Sauber, I thought in a higher team and driver, he would lag behind Coulthard as his tender inexperience started to show. But he would still be highly impressive considering his inexperience, though I did expect this, plus an ultra-competitive midfield would cause him to qualify 13th once or twice in the season, maybe even a 17th somewhere. I predicted and 24pts and somehow felt he would retire from most races, and maybe win 1 race depending. (got the pts and retirements spot on!)

WILLIAMS
Now this was an interesting one. With Montoya hugely impressing me in the back half of 2001, plus his giant reputation (also pedalled by Nigel Roebuck in Autosport most weeks) which I largely agreed with at the time, I saw Montoya challenging for the title, winning several races, and being a certainty for 2nd. This was very exciting at the time. I thought R.Schumacher would also do well, but like 2000 compared to 1999, this season would have a little less shine than the preceding one. I still saw him beating Barrichello to 3rd, and Williams building on the promise of 2001.

SAUBER
Being very fond of Sauber, their 2001 stunned me and I loved seeing them so competitive. I rated their car and designer Sergio Rinland very highly indeed. He had sadly left after a disagreement, but I hoped his influence would come to bear on the 2002 car. Therefore I imagined the team building on 2001 and being very strong indeed, fighting Renault tooth and nail for 4th. In my earlier predictions before 2001 ended, Raikkonen seemed to be staying on, and Rinland talked about a possible victory. In a GP2 season, Kimi managed to win an attritional Canada when it all went his way!

JORDAN
I was very excited about Jordan and expected fairly big things from them. My perception of Jordan was still based on 98-99 being a very strong team able to take the fight to the elite, but things had just not gone their way in 2000-2001. Now they had Eghbal Hamidy on board as aerodynamicist. I rated this guy massively for the reason that my understanding was he played a major part on the 1999 Stewart and the 2000 Arrows (which set top speed trap times repeatedly with a Supertec engine). And now he was going to work his magic for Jordan! What's more, I thought Honda were coming up with a powerful engine, as much as 840bhp. Now you can understand why I was excited and rating them highly. I thought this car could be a beast in a straight line, and saw very strong performances happening behind the top 2 or 3 teams. Even more so when the EJ12 looked very fast in testing - I was so excited!

Even better, Jordan had announced a major new sponsorship deal with DHL. In my Grand Prix 2 seasons, I painted my own Jordan in it's usual yellow, but with white DHL sidepods. I loved the look of it - not wanting to blow my trumpet but I liked it more than the actual still-full-yellow livery. I wish I still had these designs to show now!

Even though I was disappointed Fisi wasn't kept on at Renault, I didn't mind much as I never comprehended Fisi stepping into anything other than a car which would be better than the Renault, at least for 2002... As for the 2nd driver, by now I was running Grand Prix 2 seasons well before the preceding year ended, and at various times had Jean Alesi and Justin Wilson in the 2nd seat before Sato. As Sato was coming straight from F3, I thought his inexperience would cause him to average +0.62sec off Fisi, despite how highly rated he was having just won the British F3 title.

In fact, it was only as 2003 went on I started to realise Jordan wasn't really a top team if ever...

BAR
Wasn't expecting a huge amount here really. One of the things I was most looking forward to for 2002, if you look at the qual times above, was just how amazingly tight and competitive the midfield would be, especially from 10th-16th, covered by little more than half a tenth! BAR were to be right in this mix, with them and the other teams usually qualifying anywhere from 5th to 18th, with it being something of a lottery who would be where each race!

One of the biggest talking points of 2001 for me was the impression Olivier Panis made, especially as his qualifying average was actually 0.009sec FASTER than Villeneuve! In hindsight, I got too overexcited and unbalanced, but at the time I had Olivier continuing to impress, and pull out a very small gap over JV who would still do well. Overall, the team would have their good days, right up in the top 5-8, but plenty more well in the midfield. On the whole, ok but not great.

RENAULT
Another exciting one. One of the harder ones to quantify how well they would go, but I eventually decided fighting tooth and nail with Sauber, being slightly quicker, but it coming down to circumstances as to who would score more points. More likely Renault I thought. I thought they would have higher highs than Sauber where both drivers would qualify 4th a few times maybe, but lower lows as their engines may cause Button in particular to have a day or two around 18th-20th. In my first GP2 seasons, I had Prost with Verstappen and Tarso Marques. Sometimes they would bump Button down to start 21st on a bad day. For the record the 13th team was Phoenix-TWR with awful 650bhp(!)engines, and Enge and Mazzacane driving.

Fairly unreliable cars I thought Renault may be, though scoring maybe 2-3 podiums, including a 2nd!

Very exciting was what was their colour scheme going to be?!!! This caused huge anticipation for me, and while I was waiting, I designed my very own for the game according to my best knowledge. I was proud of this one as I had the blue Mild Seven remaining. But only on the engine cover and along the monocoque. All else was similar to their 1985 car, white black and yellow. I suppose now I think about it, it was (totally unintentionally) very similar to the 1997 Minardi* with Renault branding. And not to sound immodest again, but I liked it better than the actual colour scheme, even though I was very fond of that. I wish I still had this to show here, I was pleased with it...

*http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ru/1/1a/Minardi_Hart_M197_Jarno_Trulli_Canada_1997.jpg - and Jarno Trulli's driving it too!

jens

11th May 2014, 23:12

Interesting, rjbetty. I think had I made a prediction for 2002, it would have looked very similar to yours... With perhaps the difference that it would have perhaps seen bigger time gaps as I was very wary of expecting any other team outside the "big 3" close to them. And perhaps expected Toyota to be around Jaguar and Arrows group.

About the Jordan thing. Several people here have mentioned that after 1999 they expected Jordan to be a top(ish) team for some time.

I recall a discussion from about Autumn 2001. I was obviously a Trulli fan and after switching from Jordan to Renault I was pondering, what does it mean. Initially I was disappointed, because Benetton had been rubbish all year and while Jordan was very unreliable, it at least had speed to compete for points. But the people, who I were discussing with, told that Trulli made the right choice. Because Renault was on an upward-swing, while Jordan seemed like a sinking ship. It was thought Trulli would gain more from the career switch than Fisichella.

After that I realized this way of thinking really made sense. Renault indeed seem almost certain of emerging somewhere behind the top 3 teams and Jordan (and BAR) were pretty iffy. Also Honda seemed incompetent. They had quite unreliable engines at the time and I didn't believe they can make great engines. In the end I was pretty relieved Trulli left Jordan, because to be honest I was fed up of Trulli DNFing all the time and Jordan being unreliable in both 2000 and 2001. 2001 was a pretty hard year as a Trulli fan. I think he DNF-d from like 8 races during a 9-race-period. We remember Montoya's appalling 2001 or Räikkönen's 2002 reliability, but Trulli's was pretty similar.

But I certainly expected more from Jordan than what they managed in 2002. I think from Fisichella I would have expected something like I had seen from him around 1998-2000. A couple of podiums (or at least one podium) from wet races or street circuits. Or certainly from Montreal, where he always seemed to get a podium.:D

Edit: Fisichella always seemed to be the kind of driver, who - even if the car is average - somehow gets at least one podium every year either with the help of attrition, weather or in Monaco/Canada. So I thought he'd nick something somewhere again. While Trulli sadly to me seemed one, who gets lots of 4ths and 5ths, but always misses out of podium and whenever is on course to podium, misses out due to reliability issues (Monaco 2000).

jens

12th May 2014, 00:12

journeyman racer

12th May 2014, 15:04

steveaki13

12th May 2014, 15:22

2003 was a season more than almost any other arrived with me in a absolute fervour. Only 1998 I remember had seen such excitement over rule changes, but that was ruined by Mclaren lapping the field.

Anyway 2003 we had Qualification changes and single lap qualifying meaning we were to see every driver have their go, which in previous years didnt happen. The whole weekend format changed as did sporting rules and regs and the damp Australian GP start made it even better.

Ferrari - Despite all that I said above my heart sank when Ferrari had a 7 second lead after 1 lap. I dont know if any of you remember that, but due to dampness and battling for 3rd backwards Ferrari had a 7 second lead after lap 1 and 11 after lap 2. I guessed that they would dominate again like 2002, but thinks soon changed and I remember the Ferrari falling apart as the Australian GP went on. Anyway I was truly hoping someone would win the title ahead of the Ferrari and I believe it may have had, but for Schumi and Bridgestones wet win in the US GP. It was in fact one of my favourite seasons in F1 since 1989 of which I have every season.

Williams - I really hoped that after a slightly disappointing 2002 from Williams that they would have a similar car as 2001, but with better reliability. Which I guess they did in some ways, but really the 2003 Williams was the best car that team have produced since 1997. I always liked Montoya as he was exciting and he lead in Oz before spinning. Remember mid season, Williams seemed like the dominant car. Didn't they win about 4 races in a row including the German GP where Montoya won by over a minute. I cant help feeling that Michelin's poor wet weather tyres cost Montoya a shot at the title.

Mclaren - I thought they would be the third team and despite that probably being the case, they actually went into the last race in 2003 with a slim title hope. I thought DC and Raikkonen would be closer than 2002 and would mirror the Hakkinen/Coulthard days, clearly I was wrong because DC faultered and Kimi was awesome. Early season they has a 1-2 in the WDC and lead the WCC.

Renault - I dont know about anyone else, but I saw Renault as being only as good as 2002. I never saw their sudden jump to being a front runner. Alonso we all rated, but it was his first season in a decent car so I was none the wiser. While Trulli I guessed would be the same again. However after a crazy Oz race where Alonso looked good the real shock came in Malaysia. A 1-2 on the grid was a revelation to me. I never saw it coming. Then Alonso took a podium (more than either did in 2002) and Trulli came from the back to 5th. Think of 2003 and Renault now and sadly for Trulli fans :p I only think of Alonso really, that win in Hungary was amazing and his challenge in Canada was another highlight. They really were my surprise of the season.

BAR - They were a new team for me, I liked JB and the whole team seemed a better quality outfit. I remember them looking racier from the first races and a 4th in Austria was fanastic. I hope JB would beat JV but never imagined it would be quite so easy. That was when I lost faith in Villeneuve as ever being a top driver again honestly.
The best moments came in the last two races. Button leading for an age in US before retiring and then again leading in Japan before getting a 4th again.

Sauber - Dont remember what I expected from Sauber but it seemed like they had a decent line up so I wasnt surprised that they looked OK early on, but in truth compared to 2001 or 2002 they were not as good. I mean if not for Frentzens podium and Heidfeld's 5th in the USA they would have been behind Jordan, Jaguar and Toyota which would have been 9th in WCC.

Jaguar - Webber looked great in Quali and scored all but 1 of Jaguar's points. If Pizzonia had been a match for Mark then I believe they would have challenged BARs 26 points for 5th which was a big difference. By this stage I had given up expecting much of Jaguar. So at least Webber looked more competative than previous years.

Toyota - I expected the budget and history of Toyota in motorsport to mean they were significantly better than 2002. They were better but the new points system helped and generally they didnt impress me much. The line up they went for didnt seem to fit with the budget they had either. Da Matta and Panis were average IMO. One nice memory was Silverstone when they lead 1-2 after the priest invaded the track. I remember Da Matta doing a great job for a long time, but sadly drifted to 7th.

Jordan - The amazing Fisi win is the stand out memory of 2003 for Jordan. I thought Jordan would be similar to 2002 but again they sunk down the field. I was sad to see them racing Minardi's most of the season. I thought Firman did a decent job compared to the highly rated Fisichella. I guess we saw it as the beginning of the end of Jordan in 2003.

Minardi - Remember that in 2003 Minardi had a really could car and had one of the their better seasons despite no points. I remember the first few races Wilson kept leaping from the back into the top 10 and racing faster cars early on. Then they were often battling faster cars. One of the best races was European GP, when Minardi, Jordan, Heidfeld and Villeneuve all battled away for about 10 laps and it was one of the best battles of the season. Then who can forget the drying Friday Qualifying when they finished 1st and 3rd. with Verstappen topping the first session ever for a Minardi.

All in all I rate 2003 as one of the better seasons I have watched and the 2003 British GP as one of my top 5 races I have ever seen.

Its amazing how much you can remember about 10 years ago once you start thinking back. Its great fun to remember. :)

steveaki13

12th May 2014, 15:28

2002

Up til that point, I had seen a lot of processional races. A lot of races where a driver I didn't like, had won. A lot of processional races, where a driver I didn't like, had won. But I never complained. Not once in 12-14 years of watching F1. That's just how life goes.

But 2002 was a whole other story. Consider the races are on late at night here. I distinctly remember lap 22 of the Belgian GP.

"Lap 22! When is this **** going to end???"

It was the first time I EVER thought like that about a GP, or any race. Afterwards, when it suited, the thought and act of skipping watching a race, became less of a big deal.

It didn't break me. But it did give me a solid dent.

Only once I can remember really losing it with F1 and that was last season in the middle of the Monaco GP. Normally one of my favourites but last years first 40 laps of cruising around got me going. Luckily I calmed down and watched again.

I always love F1 and while I find this season and the last 4 less that classic. I still enjoy it.

rjbetty

13th May 2014, 00:53

Yeah Jens, I always remembered the competitive midfield in 2000. 5th-20th was anyone's guess pretty much each race!

Hmmm yes it did seem to be the Michelin teams that went down in 2001. If there's any truth in that, then Williams' 2001 was even more impressive. It was also the new regs, since McLaren, Jordan, BAR and Arrows all went backwards too.

2002 CONTD

Now I remember it, my early 2002 Renault had blue Mild Seven on the sidepods as well as the engine cover and monocoque. The rest of my car was Renault Black White and Yellow! And early on I had them 6th in the WCC thru unreliability, behind Jordan and Sauber.

JAGUAR
Jaguar had been very disappointing, but I expected a decent step forward for 2002, though others would too. But then Irvine said he was very pleased as the windtunnel tests had gone very well. He even said 2002 would be pretty much what 2000 should have been - that means beating Jordan etc to 4th overall! This made me very happy but despite it being unusual for Irvine to be so positive, I couldn't picture them being that good. Still I saw them having an improved year and scoring more points, both drivers able to run well in the top 10 on several days, though being down the back on others due to how tight the field was.

ARROWS - COSWORTH
One of the main points I anticipated for 2002 was how would Arrows fare? I couldn't wait and was very hopeful of possibly some fantastic performances at times, and a very strong season overall. With Cosworth engines a major coup, and probably worth almost 1sec per lap over the Asiatechs(?) plus a far better driver than Verstappen in Frentzen, who was good enough to make good use of the car, my hopes were high, possibly even very high indeed. With the big jump forwards in 2000 still very fresh in my mind, I anticipated another big one, and maybe an even more competitive year this time with a driver who could capitalise.

Even better was that the 2002 chassis would enjoy input from Sergio Rinland, a designer I rated VERY highly following the 2001 Sauber. I pretty much saw Arrows as a Sauber chassis with Jaguar's engines, driven by Frentzen. Therefore I saw him right up there in the mix having a very strong season, though very unreliable.

As for Bernoldi, he wasn't the best driver ever, but I liked him and respected his ability from F3000 where following 1999 scoring just once (5th at Hockenheim where he always seemed to go well) and being well down the pack, in 2000 he was suddenly right up there, always very fast and consistent in quali, even possibly the best one out there, though his races were terrible - and he had shocking mechanical misfortune, robbing him of 2 victories in a row.

I liked him for he always seemed a trier, and without having ideas above his station. He always tried his best and actually raced very well in his underpowered chassis at times in 2001. I was very much looking forward to seeing improved performance from both him and the car, and could see him qualifying in the top 10 a couple of times.

MINARDI - ASIATECH
I naively had high hopes for Minardi. A nice new chassis, Asiatech engines which I saw as a huge step, and a good budget by their standards. 2002 was looking pretty good. At the time I rated Webber as he was another driver who much impressed me in F3000 for Paul Stoddart's team, having expected just a small number of points, he scored multiple podiums to 3rd in the title. He was also very fast and blitzed Mari Haberfeld at Super Nova in 2001.

However, Mark had ended up a distant 2nd to Justin Wilson in the 2001 F3000 championship. At this time I rated Wilson very highly, as a great talent and ahead of Webber. I saw Webber as good but didn't understand how good he was. At the time I wouldn't have tipped him to win 9 races. As for Alex Yoong, the Malaysian was someone I rated highly: There was a huge fuss about him testing only 0.04sec off Alonso at Monza 2001. I also had in mind he qualified 16th in a 36 car field at Spa F3000 1999 for rubbish team Monaco Motorsport. So I saw Yoong as talented, and had him only +0.7 off Webber.

With the new chassis and Asiatech engine, I hoped Minardi would be only just over 2sec off the pace, because I didn't want to believe they would lag miles behind. I also didn't want to believe the loss of Gustav Brunner would have any impact though I knew deep down it would have a massive one sadly, just when they were getting a better engine...!

TOYOTA
Another very interesting unknown. I long looked forward to Toyota's arrival to make a 24 car grid! Sadly the timing meant the grid was merely kept at 22. For the future I expected eventual championship success as in rallying, but for 2002 I thought they'd be nowhere but the back, only occasionally able to put in plucky performance up in the midfield. I thought they probably wouldn't get any points to be honest.

Their new colour scheme was revealed the same time as Renault's, and I loved it. It looked far more the real deal than the 2001 test livery, even though I really liked that as it had more red.

Allan McNish was a big unknown. He was a huge star in sportscars and a real Toyota man. But because of coming from another discipline, for a long time very early on I thought he would be absolutely nowhere, not even within 1sec off his teammate. However, the 2001 testing times, plus my previous experiences of Button and especially Raikkonen's debut seasons being much stronger than expected, I then thought he would do well enough to outqualify Salo 5 times and generally do well for a 1st season, especially from sportscars. However, it would still translate to mostly being at the back and having several grid slots from 21st-24th (when I was running Prost with Verstappen and Marques), but also having plucky moments to shine getting in the top 16 once in a while.

PROST - ACER
For quite some time (and also all the time on Grand Prix 2 as you have to have 26 cars) I also had Prost remaining. I naively believed Alain Prost's claim that a fairly huge aerodynamic step had been developed as an evolution of the 2001 car. I kind of knew at the time it was wishful thinking on my part, and suppose somewhere must have known it was a desperate attempt by Alain to save the team, but I believed him at the time. Even so, Prost would still suffer due to their state, so I had Verstappen just over +1.8sec off in 19th, ahead of Salo and Webber, and Marques about +2.5sec off in 23rd, a little behind McNish but some way ahead of Yoong.

I still wanted to believe Prost would have Acer (Ferrari) engines for 2002 even though there was no hope of this really.

PHOENIX - TWR
I also ran Phoenix in Grand Prix 2 even though they and Prost couldn't exist at the same time. I used a Simtek 1994 car for their livery, but imagined it with white as well as black and blue, so something similar to the F3000 DAMS from 1999-2000. Enge and Mazzacane were the drivers, though at times I changed one driver to Alonso to give them some hope of being competitive. Otherwise it was hard to see them doing better than 5sec off the pace with the awful 1999 Arrows engine... I also had Alonso at Arrows and even Sauber very early on before Frentzen or Massa were confirmed.

FINAL POINTS ESTIMATION
1.M.Schumacher - 89pts
2.Montoya - 72pts
3.R.Schumacher - 53pts
4.Barrichello - 52pts
5.Coulthard - 47pts
6.Fisichella - 24pts
7.Raikkonen - 24pts
8.Heidfeld - 16pts
9.Button - 14pts
10.Irvine - 10pts
11.Trulli - 9pts
12.Frentzen - 9pts
13.Massa - 9pts
14.Villeneuve - 8pts
15.Sato - 6pts
16.Panis - 5pts
17.de la Rosa - 3pts
18.Bernoldi - 2pts

1.Ferrari-Ferrari - 141pts
2.Williams-BMW - 125pts
3.McLaren-Mercedes - 71pts
4.Jordan-Honda - 30pts
5.Sauber-Petronas - 25pts
6.Renault-Renault - 23pts
7.Jaguar-Cosworth - 13pts
8.BAR-Honda - 13pts
9.Arrows-Cosworth 11pts

(Points approximate)

rjbetty

13th May 2014, 06:57

Thanks for your thoughts everyone.

2003
I didn't know what to expect with the new rules really so I ran my GP2 seasons as normal.

MY ANTICIPATED QUALIFYING GAPS (NEW RULES NOTWITHSTANDING)
1.M.Schumacher (Ferrari)
2.Barrichello (Ferrari) +0.21
3.Montoya (Williams) +0.30
4.R.Schumacher (Williams) +0.43
5.Raikkonen (McLaren) +0.45
6.Coulthard (McLaren) +0.65
7.Villeneuve (BAR) +0.97
8.Trulli (Renault) +1.00
9.Alonso (Renault) +1.16
10.Button (BAR) +1.20
11.Fisichella (Jordan) +1.36
12.Panis (Toyota) +1.40
13.Heidfeld (Sauber) +1.42
14.Frentzen (Sauber) +1.45
15.Firman (Jordan) +1.78
16.da Matta (Toyota) +1.88
17.Pizzonia (Jaguar) +2.00
18.Webber (Jaguar) +2.07
19.Wilson (Minardi) +2.36
20.Verstappen (Minardi) +2.38

FERRARI
More of the same here, but Barrichello had regained some favour with me in 2002 so I thought he'd edge a little closer.

WILLIAMS
A little better than 2002 with Montoya opening a little gap to Ralf.

MCLAREN
A real unknown. I thought with an old (and uncompetitive to boot) car they'd suck, but everyone said they were looking good, so I went with an improvement since they'd now be adapted to Michelins. Plus Mercedes had poached several BMW staff so shouldn't be lagging quite so far behind. Then the MP4-18 could boost performance. But I still had them behind Williams. Overall, DC to have an improved gap from 2002, but Kimi edging 0.2 ahead.

RENAULT
I too wasn't expecting that much but some decent improvement, but the target of 4-5 podiums looking unlikely. I thought Alonso would be closer to Trulli in qualifying than Button, but close to Button's level in races. So I underestimated him quite a bit!

SAUBER
I was very excited about Frentzen joining and returning to his 'home'. I hoped the family atmosphere would boost Frentzen like joining Jordan did, but didn't expect anything amazing, though I was looking for a strong season, and though I put him just a smidgen off Heidfeld in quali, I thought he might get slightly more points. I rated Heidfeld highly at the time even though he didn't seem WDC material. Sauber were also getting Ferrari's 2002 engine and gearbox but I didn't see this transforming them, though it would result in an improvement enabling the team to keep up with bigger/improving teams.

JORDAN-FORD
The Ford engine deal was a big thing for me, especially as Jaguar were very unhappy about it. Gary Anderson was saying the engine was substantially lighter. Plus it would be much more powerful than the 2002 Honda. Also, whereas the 2002 car was a mess, the 2003 chassis seemed simpler and more user-friendly. Actually it was probably that by now I realised Jordan weren't one of the big hitters as they appeared to be, but I expected a definite improvement as all the factors just weighed too heavily in their favour for an improvement.

However, I had become more realistic fllowing the last 3 years s had Jordan as a respectable and tidy 6th best team, with Fisi maybe able to grb a pdium or two as he does. I judged Firman against Sato, and decided with his greater experience he might be able to perform at a slightly higher level than Takuma at first, so had his gap to Fisi slightly smaller.

At first I had Massa in the 2nd Jordan seat briefly, before having Bernoldi for quite a long time. I was really hoping Eddie Irvine could get the deal but it never came off and I never expected it would, so sadly he never featured in my early line-ups. I also designed a Jordan which had a blue engine cover(!) to reflect Ford and likely minor Red Bull sponsorship. I wasn't as fond of it as I was of my 2002 DHL Jordan with white sidepods or 2002 Renault, or 2001 Benetton with more dark blue and white, but I still thought it looked nice, and different.

JAGUAR-COSWORTH
Sadly, it looked unlikely Irvine would stay on, which was a shame as he could have done a great job I'm sure. Irvine was a driver who I felt just got better and better each season, and he was forced out of F1 too early. Only 3 races ago, he had scored a podium, the only driver outside the top 3 teams to do so in 2002. It was a shame he couldn't have had a better attitude as I think it was poor leadership that caused Jaguar to say "we need a fresh break".

Anyway, Mark Webber was very promising and would be refreshing to the team. I thought he'd stay alongside Pedro de la Rosa who would help maintain continuity and be a reference for Webber to beat. I did this in GP2 having Webber evenly matched but slightly ahead of de la Rosa.

But even he went and Antonio Pizzonia was signed. At the time I still rated Pizzonia's potential very highly, even though he had been very disappointing in F3000 (8th overall in 2002 anyone?). Despite that, I expected him to come good and have a small speed advantage over Webber, though Webber to score a few more points.

I felt 2003 would be a big step towards having a tidy and respectable team and car, but the only problem being many other teams making large improvements, so even though Jaguar would not be a big mess, the way it would shake out were that they were the penultimate team ahead of Minardi, though hanging on the coat-tails of the teams ahead.

BAR-HONDA
A revolution had taken place over the winter. The team revealed an amazing lean and fast looking chassis with a livery that looked the business, this coupled with a Honda that had sorted their issues meaning a much more punchy engine. Jacques Villeneuve looked to be renewed as one of THE top drivers (I believed in how good everyone said he was at the time) and had healed his bad relationship with David Richards to some degree. This re-igniting of Jacques though appeared bad news for Jenson Button, even though I fully expected the Englishman to do a very good job for where he was at. There was a danger though that Jenson could be dominated and go a bit Massa-ey. But overall, a MUCH improved season fr both drivers appeared to lay ahead, and they would be in a position for better results and to challenge the top few teams from time to time. I was looking forward to this to say the least!

MINARDI-COSWORTH
Paul Stoddart clearly expected big things from his team for 2003, with such declarations that because of the new rules and changes to his team, Minardi could be capable of "scoring a podium. And I'm not joking." That sounded amazing, and though I had no idea how things would shake out, it seemed a little unlikely. However, several points finishes (top 6 included) beckoned in my mind.

The major reason was that Minardi had made a massive deal to run the Cosworth engines Arrows used the previous year. This would represent a massive jump in performance.

Also, the driver line-up was one that I was very excited about. Justin Wilson was billed as better than Mark Webber by the British press for beating him comfortably to the 2001 F3000 crown, and this is something I believed. Wilson looked like a great talent with a good future! Also, despite the fact that it appeared that Christijan Albers had been confirmed for the 2nd seat (I had MANY drivers in that seat in GP2 early on, including Bryan Herta!), the seat eventually went to Jos the Boss Verstappen, as I was desperately hoping it would.

In my mind, Verstappen was still a driver with big potential, as he had been very highly rated in his career. I thought both would do a little better than Webber did the previous season, by about a tenth or slightly more. Jos also seemed capable of bagging a big result at a crazy race. I had several points positions for these guys, with Wilson slightly quicker in qualifying but Verstappen getting more points, but both drivers being able to get in the midfield quite often!

Add to this that the field generally closed up a little in stable reg seasons and you can see how I got down from Webber being about 3.4sec off in 2002 to the 2003 drivers being at least 1sec quicker.

TOYOTA
I really liked Toyota at the time, and only went off them in 2006 when it became clear they were just faceless and doing nothing-special performances.

But in 2003 I was a fan and was very grateful and welcoming of them in F1, as I liked their boss Ove Andersson. I saw them obviously building on 2002, but knew about the dreaded 2nd season syndrome by then. Even so, I had them making a net gain.

What excited me was the driver line-up! At the time I rated Olivier Panis very highly and had gained much respect for him at BAR, as he had in many ways matched Jacques Villeneuve, and JV was held to be a bit of a legend. So basically I had Panis being equal in speed to the likes of Frenten or Irvine. So I thought he'd bring an instant 0.3sec benefit over Salo.

As for McNish, he had a very decent season, but the stat of only outqualifying Salo twice was highly disappointing, given that Diniz had managed several more times. He wasn't bad at all, but understandably hadn't done enough to make Toyota saw "Wow", given that there were several drivers who had their eye on that drive.

In Grand Prix 2 around Spa 2002, I ran Helio Castroneves who I was a HUGE fan of in CART. I love his helmet design and he was in the 2nd seat. Then it appeared Massa would get it (I think Pizzonia was mentioned before Jaguar signed him) but I was very pleased to see da Matta join as I really liked him in CART. Someone said he was the best driver in the world who wasn't in F1. Having won the 2002 title, he certainly seemed a candidate. I expected a definite improvement over McNish and some moments of being able to really shine, but knew from Montoya that adapting from CART is hard, so for this year gave him quite a large gap to Panis.

jens

13th May 2014, 09:54

My thoughts on before the 2003 season (and before winter testing, from which I actually don't remember making many conclusions anyway as I didn't take it seriously).

Ferrari/M.Schumacher to win again. They were so far above everyone in 2002 that it was hard to see them losing, even if the advantage would be a bit smaller. Didn't foresee them having some true shocks, like getting lapped in Hungary!

But behind Ferrari - based on the second half of 2002 I concluded that McLaren could become stronger than Williams again. McLaren seemed on an upward curve in late-2002. It actually proved to be the case in early 2003 before Williams developed the fastest car of the field from about Austria onwards.

So M.Schumacher as champion in 2003, but Räikkönen could offer more Magny-Cours 2002 kind of battles and end up perhaps 3rd in the championship behind Barrichello and maybe even have a shot at second. But I was still suspicious about McLaren reliability and thought this would be detrimental to Kimi's season, especially with new point system, which awards reliability. As we remember, McLaren, especially Kimi in 2002 had a pretty appalling reliability.

There was also some talk about new qualifying system and that Ralf Schumacher could show up Montoya in the new one-lap format, while Montoya had been the previous king on Saturdays by bagging five poles in a row in mid-2002! But I felt this was going to be merely part of the past for JPM now, who was going to have his hands full with Ralf and they'd be racing for like 4th and 5th positions. With fluctuations here and there of course.

Behind them I actually didn't have big expectations on Renault. I expected them to continue with the "best of the rest" tussle with perhaps Sauber going well against them with the impressive and consistent line-up of Heidfeld and Frentzen, who could bag many points for the team in the new top8 point system, which I thought would value consistent and reliable teams, which Sauber and their drivers seemed to be. I pondered if a consistent team like Sauber may even not be far off McLaren/Williams if the latter have many reliability issues and Sauber with its consistency can stay somewhat close. Well, something like what Jordan/Frentzen had done in 1999. But guess this was always a long shot.

And of course Toyota, I expected them to go much better and perhaps already finish around 5th in the constructors championship. So to achieve this it meant they were going to beat either Renault or Sauber. I didn't analyze deeper, which one - perhaps more likely Sauber still - but nevertheless I had pretty significant expectations. During 2003 Toyota actually qualified pretty well, but often had reliability issues and dropped back in races. So during 2003 I felt Toyota sort of had potential to indeed end up 5th, but didn't capitalize.

BAR and Jaguar were still very "doubtful" teams to me and I feared Jordan could drop back after losing Honda works engines for Ford customer ones. But I felt Jordan could still put in some good underdog performances and get decent points on board. They always seemed to, even with old Mugen customer engines!

rjbetty

13th May 2014, 09:54

I didn´t do as much for 2004 and didn't play Grand Prix 2 as much. My 2004 expected season was just a continuation of 2003 really.

EXPECTED QUALIFYING AVERAGES
1.Barrichello
2.R.Schumacher (Williams) +0.02
3.Montoya (Williams) +0.08
4.M.Schumacher (Ferrari) +0.12
5.Raikkonen (McLaren) +0.25
6.Alonso (Renault) +0.42
7.Trulli (Renault) +0.45
8.Coulthard (McLaren) +0.45
9.Button (BAR) +0.60
10.da Matta (Toyota) +0.80
11.Panis (Toyota) +0.84
12.Webber (Jaguar) +0.90
13.Sato (BAR) +1.00
14.Fisichella (Sauber) +1.40
15.Massa (Sauber) +1.58
16.Heidfeld (Jordan) +1.60
17.Klien (Jaguar) +1.63
18.Pantano (Jordan) +2.24
19.Bruni (Minardi) +3.02
20.Baumgartner (Minardi) +4.58

FERRARI
Barrichello was about the best qualifier in 2003 but I didn't realise how much of it was down to low fuel. I thought Michael was losing it a little.

WILLIAMS
Can't remember why I had Ralf ahead. Perhaps anticipating a quick car, Ralf tended to step up whenever the car was good.

MCLAREN
Kimi was the favourite for the title, but then I heard McLaren were having problems. I wanted DC to bounce back from 2003.

RENAULT
Alonso to improve and more than match Trulli in qualifying, not just due to lower fuel this time.

BAR
To clearly be the 5th best team this time, even though they were tipped for even better, I had them some way off the top 4 teams. Sato I correctly predicted to average 0.4sec off Button.

SAUBER
I wasn't hopeful of much, knowing Fisi's misfortune. At least it would be an improvement over 2003, but that wasn't saying
much. Massa to be closer to Fisi in qualifying than the race.

JAGUAR
Expected Mark Webber to build on 2003 and Jaguar to close some of the deficit in races. Klien to be at least 0.7sec behind, something I managed to get right.

TOYOTA
I expected quite big things here following the end of 2003 with 2nd row grid slots! Both drivers, da Matta in particular to grab some fairly big results here and there for a strong 6th in the WCC.

JORDAN
Eddie Jordan said Jordan had made their biggest ever step in aerodynamic performance (where did I hear this before...?) but I believed this and thought how rotten Fisi's fortune is for Jordan to make a leap as soon as he leaves, just as Renault did, and Jordan the first time!!! They could even be ahead of Sauber, but I guessed most likely not. Verstappen was a dead cert for the 2nd seat and I was absolutely gutted he didn't get it.

MINARDI
It was said that Minardi were about 3sec off the pace before the season started. I was a huge fan of Gianmaria Bruni since 2000 in British F3 - I just really liked him for some reason and thought he would be a very strong and talented driver, annihilating Baumgartner. I had Heinz-Harald Frentzen in my GP2 line-up for a while, and loved his helmet against the black Minardi!

ALSO FOR 2003

ARROWS-COSWORTH
I forgot to mention Arrows. If they could have continued into 2003, I heard a fair bit about them trying to sign Irvine, so I had him in my Grand Prix 2 season, alongside Ricardo Mauricio placed by Red Bull, who I heard somewhere might/would get a drive. I couldn't understand why Mauricio as I didn't rate him and it seemed he was destroyed by Bernoldi in F3000.

Needless to say, the car would be very uncompetitive without development, probably no Cosworth engines either, though I included those.

jens

13th May 2014, 10:48

I wanted to say one more thing about 2003. The Australian GP. When I saw qualifying, some of my pre-season hopes had been "confirmed". Panis 5th on the grid in Toyota, the Saubers of Frentzen and Heidfeld a fabulous 4th and 6th. I don't remember exactly, but they were thereabouts.

I thought - the new rules, the shake-up, and the consistent Sauber team can go really well this year. Renault was underwhelming in quali as was Williams - also expected. Räikkönen looked set for 3rd fastest time behind the Ferraris before he had an off. The only thing was that the BAR was very fast in free practice and impressed a lot. I remember they had hired Geoff Willis the former Williams chief designer recently. I thought this had helped. But I thought the Honda engines were going to regularly blow up as per usual.

But of course race was a different story. Ferrari had a 4th and crash. Renault moved well up (5th and 7th). Toyota disappeared. BAR didn't score. Sauber went on to be pretty slow in dry weather races for most of the year. After Australian GP I thought - "ok, Ferrari is not going to have a smooth season this year and an easy run to titles." And this proved to be the case.

jens

13th May 2014, 10:53

2004

This was one of the first times I can remember I really did a proper prediction. In an Excel-table, imagining through all races. And I did it before winter tests, before any guidelines. Now I can't remember the exact rankings let alone exact points, but I remember some general form-lines. IIRC it saw Räikkönen winning the championship from M.Schumacher.

Let's remember the hype around McLaren. All through 2003 they were developing their new revolutionary car MP4/18, which indeed looked revolutionary. It was said it was the first car, which was properly built for the demands of Michelin tyres, while the previous car was just "adapted" for it. There was a lot of hype around and the looks helped as the car seemed like one from the future. I thought if they could compete for the title in 2003 even with the old "updated" car, what can they do with the new one.

Now, I didn't expect a dominant season, but a close fight for the title. In which McLaren/Räikkönen prevailed in the end. Ferrari/M.Schumacher were its usual solid self, but I felt 2003 indicated their era was coming to an end. Still good, but not enough to win in the end. With Bridgestone tyres still lagging behind.

Williams was a bit of a mystery. On one hand they had been very fast in 2003, then again they seemed to have peaked. I thought if they couldn't deliver titles even with what seemed to be the fastest car on many circuits and by far the best tyres and also the best engine, what else do they want? I started losing belief in their drivers. I also thought that as Montoya had already announced his switch to McLaren, he viewed them as a better long-term prospect. So while expected Williams to be fast, "something" was missing to make their challenge complete.

Then the big story, the Toyota. In my prediction they were the breakthrough team and da Matta the breakthrough driver. Let's remember real 2004. The breakthrough driver was Button with lots of podiums. But in my prediction it was da Matta, who got a few podiums and I don't remember if a win was among them too. Panis had a solid season, but was already old and past his prime and I thought would be outshone by the impressive Brazilian. Thought Toyota would now properly deliver on the promise with Gascoyne on board. It is also worth recalling that in late 2003 Toyota actually qualified 3rd in both USA (Panis) and Japan (da Matta) and even though they were probably a bit short on fuel while achieving this, it reinforced my view that the team was about to come really good.

Interestingly I didn't have high expectations on Renault and I was regularly underrating the Enstone-based team, a miscalculation I recognized only in late 2005 season! In 2003 there were rumours they had the worst engine and also lost chief designer Gascoyne. So it felt like 2003 was a bit of a "punching above their weight" season. So now predicted them to be 5th best team.

Then somewhere behind I think was BAR. Button with his usual solid driving, but without podiums to back it up. Sato getting only a few points. Sauber with Fisichella stronger than 2003, battling with BAR. Massa also getting points on board. Jaguar sometimes impressing in qualifyings, but overall in midfield with Webber. Perhaps relatively a bit worse off than 2003, behind BAR and Sauber. And then Jordan and Minardi at the back.

Overall...
In 2003 I had seen teams being very close. Top3 going for the title, Renault going well. Toyota, BAR, Jaguar all showing speed from time-to-time too. This made me think we had entered a new era. The era of close competition. With lots of big-budgeted factory teams. So I thought 2004 was going to be close again. Jaguar was "good", but because the competition was close I would have had them only 8th in the constructors. Had I predicted qualifying gaps (I didn't) I think they would have all been pretty close.

All in all... One of my "shittiest" predictions of all times. Yeah, but while compiling this, it all made so much sense. Maybe in alternative universe would have worked.:D

jens

13th May 2014, 11:23

FERRARI
Barrichello was about the best qualifier in 2003 but I didn't realise how much of it was down to low fuel. I thought Michael was losing it a little.

WILLIAMS
Can't remember why I had Ralf ahead. Perhaps anticipating a quick car, Ralf tended to step up whenever the car was good.

MCLAREN
Kimi was the favourite for the title, but then I heard McLaren were having problems. I wanted DC to bounce back from 2003.

RENAULT
Alonso to improve and more than match Trulli in qualifying, not just due to lower fuel this time.

Regarding drivers. Before every season I thought Barrichello would get beaten by Schumi, because - well - he is #2 and needless to say, inferior driver too.

Before 2002 I expected Montoya to beat Ralf. Before 2003 I thought it could be close. Before 2004 I had Montoya clearly as favourite.

In McLaren I was waiting each year, when will Kimi beat DC. In 2003 it happened, by a bigger margin than perhaps anticipated. Though I knew DC can be "fortunate" with reliability (more reliable car in both 2001 and 2002 than his team-mates) and with top8 point system it could suit him.

Needless to say, I rated Trulli highly, but considered him horrendously unlucky. Suffering from lots of reliability issues all through 2000-2002 and got outpointed by team-mates even if I had considered Trulli to perform better on average. So in predicting points and results I always sort of counted on Jarno losing a good chunk of points due to misfortune and hence team-mate getting more points. For me it was a pretty frustrating experience.

I remember Japanese GP of 2003. Jarno was fast all weekend, yet it was raining, when it was his attempt for the qualifying lap. So he started from the back and yet made his way up to 5th in the race. This sort of summed up Trulli's career at the time. I thought he can never catch a break.

Fortunately it changed in 2004. Finally Trulli had a reliable car, got consistent points and even won a race. That season was a huge relief to me.

rjbetty

20th May 2014, 14:33

Webber will never win a World Championship and unless he's given the best car in the field, probably will never win a race either.

- 25th March 2006.
Webber never did win a World Championship.
Webber never did win a race until given the best car in the field; even then Vettel had already racked up 3 (actually 2 lol) victories.

This was a bit harsh maybe? Did you watch the 2006 Monaco GP? Also, have a further look at Nurburgring 2005 (the one where Kimi retired on the last lap), where Webber qualified 3rd on a very heavy fuel load; fuel-corrected he would have started on pole ahead of the McLarens and Renaults. He was very well set up for the race. Given that Heidfeld finished a not far off 2nd place, it seems it was truly the one that got away for Mark (he was eliminated in a turn 1 collision with Montoya, which he accepted blame for).

jens

20th May 2014, 15:14

One more thing about Renault. When they locked out the front-row in Malaysia 2003 and even more so when Alonso finished second in the Spanish GP, I was adamant that it is only the matter of time before this team wins the championship. It indeed happened in 2005-2006.

However, my perennial doubts about this team started from late 2003, when Gascoyne left and there were rumours Renault's budget isn't quite a match to other factory teams.

jens

20th May 2014, 21:41

So what about 2005? Before winter tests, about January, I remember myself doing an Excel prediction. Once again it was far off. In both 2004 and 2005 F1 pecking order changed so much that this was the period, which was pretty challenging to get even remotely correct.

But the balance of powers and my reasonings at the time were the following:

In general: once again I expected the field to be close with perhaps up to 4-5 teams winning races . Of course 2004 saw Ferrari dominating, but I maintained my belief that F1 was still close-competition era with lots of factories. Especially as the end of 2004 saw Ferrari's advantage slashed somewhat and with McLaren and Williams gaining form we had 5 teams, who could compete for podiums. I thought it could get pretty exciting indeed between those 5 teams in 2005, and who knows, what others can do.

IIRC the Excel prediction saw Michael Schumacher in the Ferrari winning the championship with Räikkönen close behind him in second. Then Button again in third in the BAR and then behind him a very close competition between Barrichello, Montoya, Renaults, Williamses and also Sato and Toyotas were pretty close and it is almost impossible for me to now remember the exact order of them all. All collecting around 25-60 points in the WDC standings, while the champion was close to 100. Or at least what I vaguely remember.

Ferrari to win again, but with a relatively small advantage. I thought 2005 would be another 2003 with competition closing up again and Schumi marginally beating Räikkönen. I thought late 2004 indicated Ferrari's advantage was going to be eaten up. But I never thought the tyres were going to be so bad that Ferrari would be midfield in 2005!

Then McLaren. They had improved in the second half of 2004, so I thought this was the sign that they got out of troubles and the legendary team was once again prepared to go for titles. Räikkönen had won a single race in both 2003 and 2004 and I thought now he could finally become „multiple winner“ per season. Montoya to be more inconsistent and lose out, though get a win or two too. In the end McLaren wasn't far off from my thoughts, though their raw speed was even better than I thought – should have won most races bar reliability.

BAR I thought had established themselves as a strong team in 2004 though I pondered whether the Button debacle had destabilized them. When Button was announced at Williams and in late 2004 it was pondered whether BAR's line-up is going to be Sato-Davidson, I was fearful this could seriously hinder the potential of the strong team. However, I still thought they were once again good enough to get podiums, but struggle to win races. And I thought Sato would do well... score closer to Button's tally, because in 2004 Sato's engine blew up quite often, which I thought would be rectified.

Williams was a questionmark team to me. I thought Webber-Heidfeld was a good line-up and both drivers deserved their break. But after 2004 I didn't think the team had the spark to win titles any more. I thought at best they could perhaps win an odd race or two here or there. In the end they weren't too far off the expectation, especially in the first half of the season with Heidfeld collecting two second places.

Renault. I thought late 2004 indicated the team doesn't quite have the depth to challenge all season. As we remember, they dropped back to 3rd and let BAR past them in WCC. Renault arguably had a bit less budget than other manufacturers too. So I thought – they are again gonna be good early in the season, get podiums, maybe a win, but later fade.

Toyota – after the miserable 2004 I became much more cautious about them and realized they are not going to get to the top that quickly. I was unsure what to expect, but thought they should at least have the ability to beat the privateer Sauber and the new Red Bull team. Trulli-R.Schumacher was also a new improved line-up and it seemed the team was about to enter a new era of gradual improvement. I thought they could challenge the other 5 factory teams and Trulli with his good qualifying can get top 6 grid slots, but in strategy games and tight competition the team could lose a bit ground in points accumulation. In the end their 2005 was stronger than I thought, especially the first half.

Sauber – expected 2005 to be slightly worse after the departure of Fisichella and the arrival of Villeneuve, who I didn't understand, why he was hired, because I saw him as pretty hopeless late in 2004 in Renault and thought Massa would show him up. Otherwise Sauber to be its usual solid self, getting odd points here and there. In the end not far off.

Red Bull – it looked like the team was in a mess after Ford pulled the plug on the underperforming Jaguar. At one point I was unsure if Red Bull could even drop back to race with Jordan and Minardi, then I realized they should still be good enough to be better than that and perhaps compete with Sauber and get a few points on board. In the end they surprised a lot, especially early on.

Jordan and Minardi at the back again, this was the surest prediction of all!

steveaki13

21st May 2014, 09:52

I remember being quite excited as the 2004 season arrived. It came after IMO a great season in 2003 and after a couple of years of Ferrari dominance in 2001 & 2002, I firmly thought 2004 would be another close season. Honestly though, despite how wrong I was about that I still enjoyed the season more than say 2002.

Ferrari - I had the naivety to believe that Ferrari were on the wane after 2003 and the close finish we had that season. However they would obviously prove me wrong. The first race in Australia made my heart sink immediately. As they pulled out 5 odd seconds in the first couple of laps. There is not alot more I can say really about Ferrari in 2004. They were awesome and who could have predicted it was the last hurrah of that era. Come the end of season it appeared they would continue to dominate F1.

BAR - The biggest shock of the season for me. I was excited about the end of 2003, but never predicted the fantastic season they would have. The car was super to look at and Jenson (who I have always liked) was predicted for big things, which looked slightly off key as they only finished a normal BAR 6th in Australia. However in Malaysia Jenson finally got the long awaited Podium. Then again in Bahrain.
I dont know if anyone agree's but Imola was Jenson's best race of the season IMO. He qualified on Pole Position for the first time after that stunning 3rd sector. Then remember Schumi almost going off the road at Variante Alta. Then he led the first stint as he and Michael left the field for chips. Jenson drove brilliantly that weekend and could never have beaten Michael but did the best he could. I always felt Imola was better than Monaco because with no Ferrari in Monaco and appearing to climb all over Trulli late on, he must have been faster as so should have won. Anyway come the end of the season BAR and Renault had really shaken up F1 for the better.

Renault- Renault improved again in 2004 and along with BAR freshened up 2004. Beating Macca and Williams. I saw Renault as being better than BAR for 2004 to be honest but despite Sato not scoring anything like the points of JB. BAR still won the battle. Alonso was great and consistent and despite being the better driver he missed out on the one race win. Trulli may have only won one GP in his career but what a race to win. He drove amongst the best I have ever seen him in Monaco. So fast and so committed. Although a couple of his 2004 drives from the back of the grid to 5th and 4th were quite good too. I also have fond memories of Jacques being rubbish for Renault in his 3 race stint. :p

Williams -The old Walrus was a ridiculous thing to look at, but I was actually pleased to see it. I always wanted cars to appear different as I felt it added to the spectacle. Williams I seem to remember I predicted having a decent season and maybe being closest to Ferrari if not beating them. Way off really I guess but it was more that I didnt see BAR & Renault being so strong. Ralf Schumacher I felt really fell away from his form in 2004 before his crash in Indy. Remember in 2001-2003 he had won races and was at certain times of each season the fastest driver. 2004 I feel now looking back on it was a perfect for runner of some pretty rubbish years at Toyota where Trulli outclassed him most of the time. Montoya won the Brazilian GP brilliantly. To be honest thinking back now I cannot really remember much about his 2004.

Toyota - Panis and Da Matta again didnt exactly fill me with excitement that they would be moving on up. I always looked for signs that Toyota were improving as I originally had felt sure that they would be a force in F1 at some point given budget and heritage. I can't honestly recall masses about their 2004. I mostly remember Zonta racing in Belgium and running 4th before a retirement close to the end.

Sauber- I remember liking the Sauber teams 2004 line up. I always liked Fisi (not as much as rj :D) and I felt he was wasting his 2003 in the Jordan team as sad as it is to say it. I always felt Sauber would have a better season than in 2003. Massa I remembered from his reckless 2002 form and guessed a year with Ferrari may well have been good for him and settled him down a bit and so it proved. I remember Fisichella and Massa having some great drives for major points paying positions. 4th for Fisi in Canada, 5th for Felipe in Monaco and 4th and 5th in the crazy Belgian GP.

Jaguar - I remember being excited about Jaguar for 2004. 2003 had seen a shift from backmarker in 2002 to a competative midfield team in 2003. Webber staying on was great and I guessed he might make a podium somewhere. I also though Klien would be exciting. I guessed he would be a bit erratic being so young, but fast. It turned out he wasn't all that fast, but I remember the 2004 Bahrain GP. He was constantly hassled Raikkonen early on and made several attempts to pass. All of which didnt quite come off, but it was good to see a driver having a go. All in all 2004 disappointed from a Jaguar point of view. They only scored 10 points. Webber had a few amazing qualifying displays. Like the front row in Malaysia. However it was all a bit of a let down.

Jordan -It was the first season I really remember not expecting anything from Jordan. Since 1998-2000 I was constantly expecting or hoping that Jordan would be able to get back further up the grid. Even in 2003 I had hoped the would improve on 2002. By 2004 I was resigned to Jordan battling Minardi. As it turned out they were in a real no mans land. Minardi were so slow in 2004 Jordan often lapped them while being lapped by the rest. Heidfeld I was a fan of and Pantano I knew nothing about. I was pleased to see Heidfeld give it a go and in Monaco he raced well to stay on track and score a couple of points. The crazy disqualification fest that was Canada allowed a 7th and 8th, but sadly it was becoming obvious Jordan were collapsing.

Minardi -I felt 2003 was one of Minardi's better cars and best seasons without scoring points. They led a session and often battle in midfield in the early season. 2004 seemed like the team were totally unprepared. The car was slow and often was lapped 4 or 5 times as opposed to 2003, where 1 or 2 times was common. I didnt rate the drivers much either. Bruni was average and Baumgartner was a hard trier, but really not up to it. Despite his point in the US Gp I rate 2003 a much better season than 2004.

So those are my thoughts on 2004. A season I quite enjoyed despite absolute domination by Schumacher and Ferrari.

journeyman racer

23rd May 2014, 16:17

This was a bit harsh maybe? Did you watch the 2006 Monaco GP? Also, have a further look at Nurburgring 2005 (the one where Kimi retired on the last lap), where Webber qualified 3rd on a very heavy fuel load; fuel-corrected he would have started on pole ahead of the McLarens and Renaults. He was very well set up for the race. Given that Heidfeld finished a not far off 2nd place, it seems it was truly the one that got away for Mark (he was eliminated in a turn 1 collision with Montoya, which he accepted blame for).
If you like Webber, then fine. However Rollo was accurate noticing his mediocrity from reasonably early on. Don't make excuses for Mark.

rjbetty

26th May 2014, 09:50

This was a big one, and probably my last real year where I was REALLY interested in wondering and expecting how the form might turn out. I wasn't really fussed on 2004, but revived my interest a little as there were so many driver changes to make things interesting.

At first, I didn't have a clue about the implications of the one tyre rule, and when it dawned on me, I was very excited, because I hadn't yet seen anything like this. It was a whole new variable, which can cause unpredictability, it would test a new driver facet, and be something that can be prone to human errors by drivers. Unlike Pirelli 2013, I really liked that thedrivers could push, but they also had to be intelligent and couldn't just mindlessly abuse the tyres. It was another thing to factor in.

2005 more than any other season on my Grand Prix 2 seasons had so many drivers in the cars at different times according to information available at the time. I will go into detail below.

2004 was the very height of my tendency to base my predictions far too much on the previous season (2003), so I resolved to learn from this...

FERRARI
...Yet I still had Ferrari in front, and at the time, like almost everyone else, did not really conceive of anyone other than M.Schumacher winning the title. I didn't really believe it when in testing it was said Renault and McLaren were the best with the 2004 Ferrari some way behind! At the time, this seemed as hard to believe as the prospect of Ricciardo outperforming Vettel before the 2014 season kicked off. Ominously, it was looking very possible Ferrari would adapt to the one tyre rule far better than anyone else and be even more dominant once the 2005 car was fully up to speed... As for Barrichello, I always hoped as with every year, but now I'd pretty much given up on him beating Michael over a season. I wasn't expecting a classic from him tbh for some reason - a slightly less impressive one this time. Some of this was because I was expecting competition to be VERY close behind Michael...

BAR
After their stellar 2004, big things were predicted for BAR, now to be known as B.A.R. (huh?) Jenson was thought to challenge for the title. I didn't have him quite that good, but for a long time had him as the closest (least distant) challenger to Michael. Because of all that palaver over the Williams contract in summer 2004, I had at various times Davidson, Sato, Coulthard, Hakkinen(!) and even Trulli, and even Helio Castroneves at one point driving for the team, though the latter was wishful thinking according to rumours, as I was a huge fan of Helio's.

I had Jenson being more win or bust than other drivers winning multiple races but the car being more unreliable than in 2004. As for Sato, he had been sort of impressive in 2004 I guess, but I did have big expectations for him in 2005, including winning a race! I had him being much closer to Jenson.

RENAULT
For a short while, I was depressed at the thought of Renault plateauing and falling to even only 5th or 6th overall. This was because while all the other teams had big plans and were in the limelight, Renault seemed strangely unheard of. I will never forget one of my best ever F1 moments in the summer of 2004 when one day going onto teletext (no internet back then, especially in the valleys) the sudden news that Fisichella had been signed by Renault for 2005! Finally, a top team after all these years! It was an amazing dream come true and good times.

However, they were very quiet over the winter, and didn't look t have major improvements and hopes like the other teams. Thankfully, this expectation was short lived and my final prediction had Alonso and Fisichella in an almighty tussle for high wdc placings behind Schumacher.

At the time I rated Fisichella very highly for his, at times, amazing exploits in so-so/rubbish cars, with too much ignoring of all the anonymous performances, too easily putting it down to being inevitable to be up there every time in a poor car. I was too focused on only his good performanes. But he had just come off a VERY good 2004, whereas Alonso's 2004 was very high quality, but regarded to have missed the scintillating spark of 2003.

Therefore at the time, there was a large uncertainty as to how this battle would go. Not much mention was given to it either, for all the hype at the time was reserved for the arrival of Montoya at McLaren alongside Raikkonen. It was hugely fascinating to me, and because of their respective 2004 seasons, it seemed to me there was a very decent chance that Fisi could come out on top in this first season.

I never had any doubt that Alonso would go on to be better than Fisi, but I thought before 2005 he would still be getting really up to speed, as it takes a few seasons to do, so Fisi can capitalise for 2005 maybe. I never had any doubt that Alonso would definitely be ahead by 2006, so 2005 was Fisi's one chance! I was mature enough then to realise in 2004 that though I was aware that Flav would personally prefer Alonso, that Fisi would be treated totally equal, which is the professional thing to do. I had Fisi just 1 hundredth ahead of Alonso in qualifying and both equal in races.

WILLIAMS - BMW
One thing I was quietly delighted about was BMW Williams' fresh new line-up for 2005. I was so happy to see two midfield drivers getting their big break. I expected Williams to be about where they actually were at the start of 2005, and slightly better at times, able to challenge for podiums and wins on their good days but generally mixing in, but hanging onto the coat-tails of the 4 teams in front. I really rooted for these two guys, especially Heidfeld, who I was so happy to see in a Williams, and was so glad he got the driver ahead of Pizzonia, which took a long time to resolve! I had Webber and Button as team-mates early on, according to Jenson's contract issues.

MCLAREN-MERCEDES
The big one! McLaren were always expected to have a better year in 2005. McLaren were a very interesting one for me, as I had them being generally very quick, though down on power, but unreliable - a great mix for excitement. On their best days, they would be able to score 1-2s either in qualifying or the race, though not very often since Schumacher was still no.1. Reliability cost the drivers a lot of points in my GP2 seasons... I had Kimi slightly ahead of Montoya.

SAUBER - PETRONAS
Early on I had Gary Paffett with his red and white helmet in the Sauber alongside Felipe Massa, such a shoe-in was he for that drive. It was basically confirmed only to be cancelled in favour of the surprise signing of Jacques Villeneuve. I wasn't expecting great things from Jacques, having now finally lost my regard for any potential as an amazing driver from his Renault spell at the end of 2004. Still I was happy to see a big name for Sauber, and he would bring a good level of solid performance and lead the team in a less volatile environment than BAR, and rebuild his cred. Massa was coming on well, and was very eager to measure himself against Jacques.

However, my pre 2005 expectation was that all the points would be hogged between the top 6 teams/top 12 drivers all the time. This would leave precious little scraps available for the likes of Sauber and Red Bull, let alone Jordan and Minardi! I only expected about 9pts...

RED BULL
Another very interesting one. By now poor DC looked all washed up and out of it. He was even rejected for a Red Bull drive in favour of Klien and Liuzzi. Liuzzi was touted as a megastar in waiting at the time. But then Tony Purnell and David Pitchforth had a word in Mr Mateschitz's ear, suddenly causing him to exclaim that actually, having DC would be a great idea after all! So he was signed. Now some, like Eddie Irvine, predicted a disastrous season, especially as sadly, Purnell and Pitchforth, who had been very popular with the workforce and the fans for their down to earth approach, had been shown the door by the insufferable and gloating Dr.Marko, in favour of relatively unknown F3000 team boss Christian Horner, just 31. [Hang on! F*** ME!!! He was basically the same age I am now! And now he's getting on a bit, kinda, and I was just out of college at the time. I remember doing all this on Grand Prix 2 SO clearly, like it was very recent. I am genuinely scared at how all that time has gone so fast!]

So anyway, I predicted a decent season, engaged in a good scrap with Sauber, but because of the depth of competition up front, points being extremely hard to come by. To that end, I had Klien scraping a single 8th place by the skin of his teeth, with DC using all his wiles and skills to gather up 6.

rjbetty

26th May 2014, 10:04

TOYOTA
Now this was one of the most fascinating prospects for me all season. I still was very fond of Toyota at the time and eagerly wished them climbing up the ladder of success step by tiny step. After just a paltry 9pts (3 in old money) for the whole of 2004, I was much more excited by most people at the prospect of both Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli joining. Both were top drivers who were thereabouts, but tantalisingly, they were FAR superior to the 2004 line-up of past-it-Panis and it-didn't-matter-to-da Matta, on another planet actually. So I hugely anticipated a big step in performance from just drivers alone.

Then consider Mike Gascoyne was by now established in the team and it was looking very interesting indeed. I predicted Toyota would be able to hang on to the coat tails of the 5 teams ahead to, though trailing a bit, still be close enough to be considered the 6th team in a new "big 6". Almost all the points would be dished out between these 6 teams and their drivers. I was excited to see the team mixing it up in the top 6 on the grid on occasion.

However, I was alarmed at what the new tyre regulation would mean for Toyota. Their tyre wear and race pace was shocking in 2004, and now with just 1 tyre, I feared the Toyota's would be dead ducks, rendered completely impotent in races, putting paid to any hopes of the odd top 5 result...

JORDAN - TOYOTA
In the back end of 2004, I had several drivers in a Jordan, from Anthony Davidson and David Coulthard (at the same time!) to I don't even know who else. I was little disappointed in their final uninspiring driver line up of TWO rookies. That was any realistic hope I had for Jordan shot there and then, though I was always really fond of Monteiro for some reason, since 2000 in French F3 (I didn't follow the series but was aware of him), while I'd always liked Karthikeyan from his wild driving in British F3 in 1999, dominating at driver's track Brands Hatch, and always shining in the wet.

So I had Jordan pretty much the same as 2004, not much hope for anything other than a very rare fortunate points finish or 2.

MINARDI - COSWORTH
Patrick Freisacher was another driver I liked from German F3 (same situation as Monteiro, not following the series but aware of him), so I was surprised and glad to see him get a chance. Though I always REALLY wanted to see David Saelens get a chance! I was a really huge fan of his, and always hoped he might get a break (what on earth happened to him anyway?). Christian Albers (who SO nearly got in ahead of Verstappen for 2003) also joined, though I was welcoming this time, even though I found him absurdly overrated having been annihilated by Webber in F3000.

Happily, Minardi announced a new chassis for the first time in 3 seasons. This was news to me, as I never knew they were simply using an old one year-on-year, or that anyone seriously did that! But by now, I was starting to have been round the block a bit, and knew the new car wouldn't transform Minardi to challenging the midfield.

rjbetty

26th May 2014, 10:58

EXPECTED 2005 QUALIFYING AVERAGE
1.M.Schumacher
2.Fisichella +0.20
3.Alonso +0.21
4.Raikkonen +0.25
5.Montoya +0.28
6.Button +0.30
7.Barrichello +0.32
8.Webber +0.42
9.Heidfeld +0.45
10.Sato +0.58
11.Trulli +0.84
12.R.Schumacher +0.92
13.Villeneuve +1.4
14.Coulthard +1.4
15.Massa +1.5
16.Klien +1.6
17.Karthikeyan +2.7
18.Monteiro +2.8
19.Albers
20.Freisacher

MY PRE-2005 GRAND PRIX 2 SEASON

Ok, is it kinda weird that I can remember many of the results from my 2005 season on Grand Prix 2? It was fascinating and I loved it! It's only recently my direct memories of the races and results have started to fade, but I still remember quite a bit.

Back then I only had the original tracks, not the 2005 ones...

ROUND 1: BRAZIL
Grid:
1.Montoya
2.Webber + 0.0
3.Barrichello +0.083
4.Alonso +0.09 (look how close the top 4 were :) )
5.Trulli +0.4
6.Button +0.5
7.Raikkonen +0.5
8.M.Schumacher +0.5
9.Fisichella +0.6
10.R.Schumacher +0.6
11.Heidfeld +1.1
12.Coulthard +1.2
13.Sato +1.2
14.Massa +1.2
15.Klien +1.5
16.Karthikeyan +2.5
17.Villeneuve +2.7
18.Monteiro
19.Freisacher
20.Albers

Result:
1.Alonso
2.Webber
3.Barrichello
DNF.Fisichella

ROUND 2: PACIFIC
Grid:
1.Raikkonen
2.Montoya +0.197
3.Sato +0.3
4.Heidfeld +0.3
5.Button +0.4
6.Alonso +0.6
7.M.Schumacher +0.6
8.Fisichella +0.6
9.Villeneuve +0.9
10.Webber +1.1
11.R.Schumacher
12.Barrichello
13.Klien
14.Trulli
15.Coulthard
16.Massa

Result:
1.Heidfeld
2.Sato
3.Webber

The McLaren's collided at the first corner and were out! Montoya's fault I think.

Darn, so frustrated that it's only recently I stopped being able to remember everything!

Round 3:IMOLA
Grid:
1.M.Schumacher
2.Trulli
3.Heidfeld
4.R.Schumacher
5.Webber
6.Barrichello
7.Fisichella
8.Button
9.Alonso
10.Sato
11.Raikkonen
12.Montoya

WINNER: M.Schumacher

4.MONACO
Grid:
1.M.Schumacher
2.Fisichella
3.Montoya
4.Trulli
5.Alonso Ohhh I'm really struggling to remember boo hoo!

SPAIN:
McLarens qualified and finished 1-2 here! I remember that.

FINAL POINTS (APPROX):
1.M.Schumacher
2.Alonso 62 pts
3.Button 60pts
4.Fisichella 58pts
5.Barrichello 55pts
6.Webber 40s pts
7.Raikkonen 2 wins 4
8.Heidfeld - high 30s pts
9.Montoya 2 wins, about 35-40pts (bad reliability for McLarens
10.R.Schumacher 26pts (podium in Canada)
11.Sato
12.Trulli 20+pts
13.Coulthard 6pts
14.Villeneuve 5pts
15.Massa 4pts
16.Klien 1pt

journeyman racer

30th May 2014, 13:28

Looking back, the 2005 season tells me, more than most others, that F1/top level of motorsport is really an Arms race, whether anyone likes it or not. The tighter the set of regs, the less scope there is to develop and advantage, more it narrows the importance the parts of the car that are less regulated, and the more it exaggerates the advantage of the leading car.

For five years, Ferrari dominated F1. The rules were so tight, that teams couldn't develop car to regain performance. Williams still couldn't get the better of Ferrari, despite a power advantage with the BMW. This is wrongly used by Schumacher fans to boost his reputation by saying he won with an inferior car. Because there was one part of the car that was not heavily regulated, that has the biggest impact of performance. Tyres.

After 5 years of being the leading F1 team. Where the rules being so tight, meant that it's rivals could make little inroad into any strength they had with their car. Ferrari went from the most dominant season in F1, 15/18 wins, 13 to Schumacher, to a single, charity win in 05.

It's not like Ferrari forgot how to build a car, or Schumacher forgetting how to drive. There is only one explanation for it. Michelin finally produced a superior tyre. Due to Bridgestone favouring Ferrari and alienating others, Ferrari/Schumacher went from all that emphatic success, to being gang tackled by the other teams. The standings flattered them. They were not a factor at all during the season.

Tazio

31st May 2014, 21:41

:stareup: Great post dawg!
2005 really was an almost complete role reversal, although Michelin had produced tires that were suited for the Renault all through the early mid 2000's, and in 2005 had a very special relationship. I remember Kimi was very fast with Michelins that season, but still basically got whupped by Alonso in a car that was ridiculously good in fast turns (mass damper), plus it fit Fred's style. McLarens out upgraded Renault but not before they were punished by "le blues" in the early season, which happens in F1 rather frequently!

journeyman racer

1st June 2014, 10:39

What?

rjbetty

1st June 2014, 17:37

I sometimes feel Alonso's 2005 Japanese GP is somewhat overlooked amidst the events of that day.

Consider he was armed with a Renault compared to Kimi's McLaren. Truthfully I don't know how the two cars compared that day, whether Renault had caught up in pace or anything?

But Alonso started in 16th, only 1 place ahead of Kimi, catapulted past M.Schumacher at 130R on the outside with high centrifugal force, just inches apart, the slightest of touches would send Fernando into the wall at massive force and speed.

Then he overtook Christian Klien slightly wrongly, had to slow to give the place back, but used his momentum to immediately overtake, then had to give the place back again, and overtake Klien without being able to do it immediately after letting him through (like Hamilton Spa 2008 - makes that DSQ look even more dodgy). Alonso also had to take to the grass to pass Webber, who defended robustly coming to turn 1. I think he finished only 7sec off the win iirc??

If the Renault was still slower than the McLaren, then this would be a truly gargantuan drive.

Sadly, Fisi seemed to have some rather deep issues with succeeding and winning, as this is the only explanation for his throwing of the win. I can actually understand this, but even if he couldn't topple Alonso over a season, I wish he had still given his all to do the best he could do anyway.

2006
I didn't really go into massive detail in predictions/expectations from now on, but I still hadn't really learned my lessons and had the field far too close. Behind the top 5-6 teams, I pretty much got it right, but that's not much surprise.

1.RENAULT
It seemed anyone of maybe even 5-6 drivers could win the title and it seemed very open to me and hard to pick a winner, but I guess if anyone was to be chosen for champ, it would be Alonso. As for Fisi, even now I felt 2005 wasn't representative as too many things factored against him. I still believed in him and felt the truth was, he was just a smidgen of Alonso in 2005.

It's amazing how everyone defends their favourite drivers who struggle, suggesting everything in the book - the car doesn't suit them, this, that and the other. Fair enough, but I don't remember ANYONE allowing these things to Fisichella, not even all his retirements causing him to qualify early next race while Alonso was almost always one of the last 2 out on track. Taking this into account, plus the fact that Fisi often ran a lap or 2 more fuel, in truth he was pretty much matching Alonso's pace at most tracks. But no, the 0.7sec gap or whatever it was, that was considered the truth!

Anyway, 2006 was a new start, though even in late 2004, I never had any illusions that Alonso would be ahead of Fisi by 2006 which was fine, cos I considered Alonso mega. But what I was hoping for was for Fisi to run him close most of the time and at least do as well as he can do. Strangely, after Alonso announced his defection to McLaren, Flav suddenly changed his tone towards Fisi and was much more for him and warmer to him. From then on, Fisi almost never suffered the many problems that ruined his 2005 - which ensured Alonso would be established ahead.

P.S. For those of you who think Webber had it bad in 2013, at least Vettel retired from a race. Alonso had absolutely no hint of any mechanical failure in any race of 2005, at all. It was even worse than Schumacher/Barrichello in 2002 as it wasn't all the time for Rubens. I still have never known things be so one-sided with problems/reliability differences between team-mates in the history of F1, that I'm aware of.

So anyway, for Fisi, I didn't expect the title no, or to beat Alonso, but for him to do a good job, get stuck in, and if things go his way as much as they didn't in 2005, who knows. My hope was for top 4 in the WDC.

2.MCLAREN
McLaren no longer looked as fast in qualifying, but interestingly looked a little faster than Renault in races, though more unreliable, though not as much as 2005. With Montoya also expected to run his team-mate close after his own 2005 troubles, it brought a lot of anticipation to the pot. Kimi still ahead though.

3.FERRARI
Once again, I based things too much on the previous season, though I had Michael up there at the top, it was hanging on by the coat-tails somewhat, being in the mix for the title, but needing much to go their way. I didn't expect much from Massa tbh, I thought he'd acquit himself well, but an extremely competitive top end of the field would see him struggle to finish higher than 7th in the WDC, and not able to help that much in the constructors.

4.HONDA
Now this was an interesting one. Testing had Honda RIGHT up there, just a little off the top. Perhaps a title challenge was a little too much, but I was certainly expecting 2004 levels of performance, being right up there, but with Button being stronger now, having shown possible race-winning pace in Turkey 2005, finishing a close 5th having started from the back. One of the most interesting things was how Barrichello would do. I expected him to basically equal Button, but more likely Jenson edging ahead than vice versa.

5.TOYOTA
Toyota were talked up as possible outsiders for the title early on, following their massively improved 2005. I bought into the hype as Trulli was flying high. I was really wondering if he could challenge and maybe even come 2nd!! But then I thought Ralf would be closer as he's very good at working to try and undermine his team-mate to make himself look better (a la Irvine and Montoya) even if the team suffers. One of my biggest points of anticipation was where Toyota would fit in, though later on in testing, things went very quiet regarding their prospects.

6.WILLIAMS-COSWORTH
Armed with the most powerful, punchy little engine on the grid, it looked interesting, though there was no doubt Williams were falling back. Even so, I felt if they could hit the ground running, they could punch above their weight and mix it up there, especially early on. Webber was impressing me with his qualifying speed, while there was an exciting fresh rookie, 20yr old Nico Rosberg, who was a great change after all those years of Ralf. I expected Rosberg to be around 0.4sec off Webber, actually a high expectation for a rookie, but he may suffer from the ultra-competitive 5 teams ahead.

7.RED BULL-FERRARI
I was very disappointed when the Ferrari engine deal was announced and felt Red Bull would struggle to replicate quite the performance of 2005 with the underrated Cosworth. This was before I saw in Autosport someone said "Think about it; when has Ferrari (customer) power really pushed anyone up the grid?" I felt this was spot on. Still the team could do a punchy little job and DC could continue to shine. Also, Klien would now be stronger after another year, but 34pts would be too tall an order this time.

8.BMW-SAUBER
I didn't know what to expect in year one of this promising partnership. I loved the livery though missed the Red Bull livery of before, and somewhat mourned the aqua/green of PETRONAS (which I loved!) which was replaced by plain blue, but it still looked good, and I was so so happy they kept the Sauber name! I kinda read they seemed very slow in qualifying but race pace was better. I was concerned they might even average 2sec off the pace and almost never get close to the top 10 in quals. Autosport announced highly promising Heikki Kovalainen was signed as Heidfeld's team-mate, though I admit I was still quite fond of Jacques for some reason. The Kovalainen deal wasn't able to come off after all, and Dan Wheldon also missed out as Villeneuve's contract had to be honoured. tbh I know Jacques wasn't popular, but I was pleased as I felt he could do better having taken a year to settle back in. It was a strong line-up I thought.

9.SQUADRA TORO ROSSO (as they were initially called)
I rated Vitantonio Liuzzi highly as everyone was raving about him at the time, and saw the line-up of him and Speed as very strong. I was very happy to see an American driver in F1, and to see "Minardi" able to leap up to the midfield.

10.MIDLAND-TOYOTA
I was actually very encouraged to see the livery which I liked, Albers join an improved Monteiro to form a stronger line-up than 2005. The new car looked pretty good actually and the team looked set to make up ground, even if only reaching 2004 levels of performance, or slightly better.

11.SUPER AGURI-HONDA
I was really happy to see a new team joining, after the sparse grids of recent years having lost Prost and Arrows. I loved their initial livery, even if plain, before they changed it to feature more red - a step backwards for me as it then looked like a Toyota. Much fervour was reserved for the 2002 Arrows chassis they ran early on! Wooohooo! I was so excited as I recognised the distinctive front of that car, and it was most intriguing to see that car in white with black and red.

Wasn't expecting much, but thought they'd be respectable for where they were, and not a joke of a poorly run team.

AVERAGE QUALIFYING 2006 EXPECTATION - QUAL ONLY
1.Alonso
2.Fisichella +0.06
3.Button +0.11
4.Barrichello +0.18
5.Raikkonen +0.20
6.Trulli +0.22
7.M.Schumacher +0.24
8.Montoya +0.24
9.R.Schumacher +0.26
10.Massa +0.64
11.Webber +0.75
12.Rosberg +1.20
13.Coulthard +1.40
14.Klien +1.53
15.Villeneuve +1.54
16.Heidfeld +1.60
17.Liuzzi +2.79
18.Speed +2.96
19.Albers +3.02
20.Monteiro +3.18
21.Sato +4.79
22.Ide +5.81

RACE PACE
1.Raikkonen
2.M.Schumacher +0.04
3.Montoya +0.06
4.Alonso +0.10
5.Fisichella +0.23
6.Button +0.26
7.Barrichello +0.36
8.R.Schumacher +0.40
9.Trulli +0.44
10.Massa +0.44

Others pretty much the same as qual.

journeyman racer

2nd June 2014, 15:37

I remember reading an article/interview. Alonso was saying that while McLaren did make up ground, relative to the Renault. Because they had such a big lead by the time McLaren did get up to speed, they went with ultra conservative tactics, knowing that Raikkonen/McLaren would only end up gaining two points. Then, when the title was over, they went on full attack at China, and smashed the rest.

jens

12th June 2014, 11:01

Interesting to see so small gaps, rjbetty.

I think 2004-2005 was an all-time optimism period for me in terms of gaps. We had lots of factory teams, Ferrari's advantage seemed to have peaked and the modern era of tight competition seemed to have arrived.

I remember watching early 2005. I was of course surprised at the pecking order, but then again my belief in the closeness of competition seemed vindicated. What was there?
Renault right at the sharp end;
Toyota surprisingly fast, but finally delivering on the promise;
Red Bull surprisingly fast, but mixing it with the strong teams;
Williams pretty decent;
McLaren, Ferrari and BAR were underperforming, but you knew they were strong teams and would bounce back.

So there seemed to be as many as 7 very competitive teams, who were all going to compete right at the top. It felt awesome! Sadly wasn't meant to remain like that...

jens

12th June 2014, 11:10

2006

In general

In retrospect it has probably been one of my best predictions of all times. I did predict M.Schumacher and Alonso to fight for the championship, though M.Schumacher was favourite to come out on top.
I had seen lots of fluctuations from one season to another, from 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005. After the abolishment of the 2005 single-tyre rule I thought 2006 would again be closer to the 2004 form standards with Ferrari again at the top and Honda, the former BAR, also closer to their 2004 form. With McLaren struggling.

Ferrari – Michael Schumacher won the prediction championship though I don’t remember if they won WCC too, because I predicted Fisichella to beat Massa in the second driver battles. I thought Ferrari’s poor 2005 was down to tyres.

After having underestimated Renault for several years, I concluded that there is no reason why they shouldn’t be at the sharp end this time again. They were convincing and getting stronger each year. Even despite Alonso announcing his departure to McLaren. I did ponder though whether Fisichella can have a better season and end up 3rd in drivers championship as he had had an appalling reliability in 2005 and thought that should finally improve.

Honda with the Button-Barrichello line-up to be competitive and perhaps end up third in the constructors. Maybe not quite as strong as they were in 2004, but expected both drivers to collect quite a few podiums and lots of points.

In the middle of 2005 I was overwhelmed by the progress of Toyota and pondered whether they could challenge for titles already in 2006. However, in late 2005 I concluded such expectation would be somewhat overoptimistic, and suspected they could even drop to 5th in the constructors after the rise of Honda again. But nevertheless thought they can give a battle to Honda and McLaren.

McLaren to disappoint, but not as much as in 2004. I knew in 2006 we would have new V8 engines and I thought Mercedes would get it wrong as the smoking Merc engines had been a customary sight in some of the past seasons. Also expected a fair amount of reliability issues and a struggle against Hondas and Toyotas. I felt McLaren had peaked in 2005 with the fastest car, with which they also couldn’t properly capitalize due to reliability issues.

Then behind them expected a close fight between three teams for sixth position.

I expected the new BMW Sauber to be slightly better than former Sauber in its first season as a factory team and particularly in the second half of the season collect lots of 7th and 8th places. In the end it was close (Heidfeld did get lots of minor points), but they probably collected some more points than I anticipated.

There was some hype around Red Bull after a good 2005 and a switch to Ferrari engines. I thought 2006 would be quite similar to their 2005 form. In the end they were slightly worse.

Expected Williams to drop backwards after losing factory status and getting customer engines. And battle it out with BMW and RBR for 6th. In the end Williams had awful reliability, which saw them collecting less points than I anticipated though their speed was stunning at times.

Toro Rosso to become 9th best buying out Minardi and getting old Red Bull chassis.

Midland – the former Jordan – to drop behind STR, the former Minardi.

Super Aguri to be hopeless with old Arrows chassis…