David Ragan

[call_me_andrew]

I'd like to declare a preemptive STFU to anyone who claims pack racing isn't a lottery.

[dj_bytedisaster]

Hasn't NASCAR racing as a whole been a lottery mostly with bogus debris yellows if someone is too far ahead or a crowd favourite in danger of being lapped?

[Nem14]

NASCAR is an entertainment company.

[muggle not]

I see where a lot of Nascar forum fans have joined the forum. :)

I think that Kenseth was thinking too much about his upcoming penalty and forgot to race at the end of Talladega. :)

[Alexamateo]

I'll play Devil's Advocate, Andrew, and say that while you may say that while you may say that,the winners list from the past 20 years of restrictor plates at Talladega reads like a Who's Who of auto racing. There have really only been 2 surprise winners at Talladega. Ragan of course, and Brad Keselowski when he was driving for James Finch. Keselowski since then has developed into a champion. One Might include Jamie McMurray and Brian Vickers, but they were driving for Roush and Hendrick respectively. I also know that people want to lump Michael Waltrip in here, but he won races here and at Daytona driving for DEI at a time when DEI was dominant on plate tracks. They won 11 of 16 plate races over a 4 year period and he won 4 of those, so it's hard to include him.

Heck, there were more surprise winners in the pre-restrictor plate days as the draft has always been an equalizer. To wit I give you Richard Brickhouse, James Hylton, Dick Brooks, Lennie Pond, Ron Bouchard, and Bobby Hillin. :)

[Alexamateo]

As far as Daytona surprise winners, I would list Derrike Cope, John Andretti, Trevor Bayne, and maybe ​Ward Burton.

[call_me_andrew]

Richard Brickhouse won the boycott race.

Hylton won because he was using an older spec of slick tires while Goodyear was forcing all the teams who could afford new tires to use treaded tires.

Dick Brooks had 15 top-5 finishes in 1970 and won a qualifying race at Martinsville in 1969. Suffices to say he was not without talent.

[Alexamateo]

Oh, I'll poke holes in my argument even more than that. Brickhouse won in a factory car, because even though the drivers boycotted, not all of the factory-backed teams withdrew. He won for Nichels Engineering.

Hylton won because Goodyear screwed up with their new tire and at the time weren't supplying everyone equally. The independents had to make do with the older tire that ended up being the hot ticket. Darrell Waltrip was making only his third start ever in his own car said he made more money selling his tires after he dropped out with a blown engine than he made in the actual race.

Brooks had talent, yes, but I really consider that the upset of all upsets, because the Crawford Brothers entry he drove never finished any other race higher than 16th in the days when any decent run would net a top ten in those high attrition days.

Lennie Pond's win was the first for Harry Ranier who would go on to win 23 more with Buddy Baker, Bobby Allison, Cale Yarborough, and Davey Allison. He may have even had Waddell Wilson calling the shots although I don't know exactly when Wilson was hired.

Bouchard's win was an upset considering it was his only win and his owner only ever won one other race in its existence, It's interesting that that year,1981, produced more last lap passes for the lead in all races than any other year. That was the first year of the shorter wheelbase cars and it took a while for teams to get their grasp of the car is what contributed to it I believe.

Hillin winning for Stavola Brothers may be similar to Waltrip winning for DEI, considering that Bobby Allison won 3 other races at Daytona and Talladega driving for the Stavola Brothers during that same time period. They had the hot ticket at that time obviously for those tracks.

You know, I don't actually deny that it is somewhat of a lottery, I just find that for all people talk about how much of a crap-shoot it is, at the end of the day it's usually Jeff Gordon or Jimmie Johnson,or Matt Kenseth, or Kyle Busch, or Tony Stewart et al. There are very few surprise winners,and when there are, is it that much different than what the track produced even before restrictor plates became an issue?

[slorydn1]

Nice work, Alex :up:

Actually I will subscribe to the crap-shoot theory. I mean, is there anyone here that will be picking Ragan or Gilliand for the up coming races at Darlington, or Charlotte? I didn't think so.

Plate racing is the one type of race where the phrase "If you're in it, you can win it" truly applies. Looking at more than just the actual results, look at how close TBR came to winning the Daytona 500 when JPM destroyed the jet dryer back in 2011-NASCAR could have called the rest of that race off. I can also think back to a Talladega race when Harvick spent so much time pushing Dave Blaney in that tandem deal that he keyed up the radio and stated that he'll be "having nightmares about kids eating free" (Blaney's sponsor Golden Corral pledged that if Blaney won a race the kids meals were on the house).

Usually the best cars and equipment will be up front with the teams working together, but the draft and the big one always end up mixing things up near the end. You won't see that happening at Charlotte or Darlington. The best team who makes the least mistakes will be there at the end (notice I didn't say the fastest car).

Yeah, I know David Reutimann won the 600 that year due to not pitting and a deluge ensued, and Regan Smith won Darlington but he was there the entire race in equipment that really amounts to RCR equipment (with a Hendrick engine to boot).

I guess the road courses could go that way, but probably not as the regulars are getting better and better at the road courses every year.

So yeah, Daytona and Talladega are a crap shoot-but people seem to like it that way.