F1 Prediction before pre-season testing starts

[rjbetty]

1.McLaren - will again make a step to establish themselves as the quickest. Both drivers to win races, but Button to maybe lose consistency if trickier 2013 Pirellis go anywhere out of his seemingly narrow operating window. Perez to find life at the top tougher than expected. May surprise some with his raw pace at some tracks, but think he will try Martin Whitmarsh's patience with scrapes and crashes.

2.Ferrari - Alonso is feeling more confident tis time round. With DRS being banned in quali, the expectation is that Ferrari will be better here. This will help Alonso stop getting caught in crashes with Lotii and help him win more races. Ferrari do seem a lot better going into 2013. Alonso can win the title if he isn't too exhausted from last year. A rejuvenated Massa won't beat him, but may be close enough to cause friction. Massa always seems to finish well up in the table; in 3 bad years he ha ome 6th 6th and 7th. Therfoe I can see him coming say 4th this time.

3.Red Bull - It may be so bad that Red Bull get bumped down this far, but I don't think so. The team have comfortably won the last 3 WCCs and won't have lost all that ability, since they also seem quite good at maximising their potential. Adrian Newey is making noises about the law of diminishing returns i.e. it's gettin hard to keep coming up with legal ideas. Also with DRS being effectively banned for quali, that won't help them. Red Bull will however start the season as they ended the last - on great form. I don' know what to expect from Webber - he is 36 and it could possibly just be downhill from now on?

4.Lotus - aiming high for 3rd, but if McLaren are the best and Ferrari and Massa have signficantly improved, it will be hard to beat them, and Red Bull, who are able to get the points even if they aren't the quickest. May improve slightly but possibly not enough. Sadly Romain Grosjean seems to have been affected by criticism, so hpefully h doesn't lose his spark trying too hard. He needs to find his confidence and be allowed the freedom to make the occasional mistake, just not a catalogue of them like last year. Kimi will also now be bedded in and knows what he needs to do.

5.Mercedes - I don't expect a big leap forward from the team that keeps saying the same thing each year. They may even drop back sightly further. Thir drivers qualified on average about 0.7-0.8sec off the pace last year. I guestimate Lewis would have been say 0.55se off. I don't expect Lewis to be much better than 0.4sec off at best, nd more in the races. I think he will beat Nico, but Nico and the team may be revitalised by Lewis's hunger as opposed to a former megastar trying to find his way, and frankly seeming quite lost.

6.Sauber - Perez says the team can build on 2012 and win races. I hope this is true. I can see them slipping back however due to lack of funding. I still think Hulkenberg can get the car to a couple of podiums if not wins. Gutierrez may grab a surprise podium somewhere but otherwise I don't expect much he himself says he isn't ready and he is obviously there for money reasons.

7.Force India - oh dear, it's not looking good. I wonder how this will affect the car. I think they will have to go for Bianchi for Ferrari/money reasons. That means they will struggle to beat Sauber. If the car is unaffected by off-track issues I expect it to edge a little closer as they have done every year.

8.Williams - oh dear it's also not looking good. The team that made 2012 happen has key people leaving. They may therefore slip back during the year. Maldonado will have to be more consistent and reliable for the team to have any hope, if this is the case. I was hoping Williams could build on 2012 and take 5th in the WCC, an Pastor could challenge for a top 6 in the WDC.

9.Toro Rosso - much is not expected of this team, but they may surprise with their more experienced drivers, and weaker 2nd drivers for Sauber and Force India. Hopefully Ricciardo will get that podium. I think he needs it to keep Dr Marko off his back.

10.Caterham - I would put Marussia here, but if they sign Luis Razia I think they can forget it. If Caterham go for Petrov as I hope, he will get whatever result the car is capable of. But given that the 2013 car will simply be the 2012 car with few bits added on, it doesn't sound promising and the team may actually go backwards. t's a shame that Tony Fernandesseems to have lost interest.

11.Marussia - If the line up really is Chilton/Razia it will be a real waste of what is likely to actually be a promising car, and may keep them behind Caterham.




I might do another prediction after testing when it might be more accurate. But it will look better if this one comes true.

My 2012 preview (before testing) recap

1.McLaren - win constructors, drivers to take 2nd and 3rd, don't know who would be ahead, but went for Lewis.
2.Red Bull - drivers 1st and 5th in WDC, team 2nd behind McLaren
3.Ferrari - Alonso to recover to 4th in WDC and a slighly improved Massa to 7th.
4.Mercedes - Schumacher to finally fulfill some potential and tke 6th in WDC... *sighs*
5.Lotus - to fall into the clutches of Force India. Grosjean to be possibly quicker than Raikkonen early on.
6.Force India - to be a clear 6th, and chase Lotus. di Resta to score more points but be pipped in quali by Hulkenberg.
7.Sauber - to slip back and barely beat Toro Rosso and an improved Williams.
8.Toro Rosso - hard to tell. I thought they'd hold off Willams by the skin of their teeth. Vergne to be better in qual, Ricciardo in races!
9.An improved performance - much more points but probably still not enough to get higher than 9th in WCC.
10.Caterham - almost certain to score points, and maybe not just the one...
11.Marussia to finally finish ahead of HRT in the table.

Well I got some stuff right, but a lot spectacularly wrong...

[seb_sh]

I think the first 4 will be quite close seeing as it's the last year before new rules and there's little chance any one team can come up with a big technical advantage or suffer from a bad car disadvantage. The only joker probably is the new tyres and how each driver will cope with them. Mercedes will be a bit behind as last year but the drivers may be able to make up for it from time to time.

Sauber, Force India, Williams will probably be close in the standings with each one possibly having an edge depending on the track. Toro Rosso may get in the fight as well from time to time.

It seems the backmarkers will not improve or even fall behind even more.

[Garry Walker]

1.McLaren - will again make a step to establish themselves as the quickest..
Like in 2012? LOL.
They won't have a superior driver like Hamilton against better cars like RedBull to make them look good anymore.

[Knock-on]

I think the McLaren will be on par with RB or very close. Alonso (sorry, I mean Ferrari) will be a bit behind with Lotus and Mercedes putting in some stella, if erratic performances. I expect a few different winners again and don't think Seb will have it ll his own way.

Wildcard is Lewis who will get more out of that Merc than Rosberg ever did.

[steveaki13]

1. Red Bull - Sad to say, I think they may win the titles again this season quite comfortably. Hope not would like to see a different winner. Obviously Seb will finish ahead of Mark.

2. Ferrari - I think Alonso will be the closest to Vettel again and maybe the only real threat. Massa? Who knows. I hope he continues like he ended last season.

3. Mclaren - Jenson could get in the title mix if the Mclaren is a good car. However I fear he will only win the odd race maybe. While Perez is a bit unknown and I predict wont win this season.

4. Mercedes- I think Lewis might win this year maybe even 2 GPs. I am not sure that the Car will be good enough to challenge. Rosberg? Well this may finally be a chance to see what hes made of. To many seasons at Williams against poor team mates in Nakajima & Wurz. Then Schumacher who all but matched him over the 3 years and its not quite clear how good Schumacher was. This will be a test.

5. Lotus - I fancy a decent season, but due to the competition they may finish a disappointing 5th. Kimi will race hard and secure maybe a win, but certainly a few podiums. Grosjean will get a podium but will still make errors.

6. Williams - I fancy Williams to make a jump and finish with a semi decent season. No win like 2012 and probably no podiums due to the level of competition up front, but regular points scoring in 5th-10th places. Bottas to outscore Maldonado in his first season.

7. Sauber - I think Gutierrez may struggle for consistancy, and be outperformed easily by Hulkenberg who will score some big points but mostly 8th-10th places.

8. Force India - I think they will struggle di Resta will not be able to perform in a conservative car and second driver also. A few points scoring races and general disappointment.

9. Toro Rosso - I think they will push Force India, but the general lack of development willl see them only score a few points scoring positions.

10. Marussia - I am going to take a punt and say Chilton & ? may finish 11th once and secure 10th ahead of

11. caterham - Poor drivers and lack of progress.

12. Scorpian GP. While I know they wont take part. If they do they will be 10 seconds off the pace and fold after 4 events.

[steveaki13]

So a general final championship standings prediction. Points not accurately worked out.

1. Vettel 286
2. Alonso 265
3. Button 224
4. Webber 217
5. Hamilton 203
6. Perez 162
7. Raikkonen 158
8. Rosberg 156
9. Massa 131
10. Grosjean 86
11. Hulkenberg 64
12. Bottas 63
13. di Resta 39
14. Maldonado 34
15. Gutierrez 32
16. Daniel Ricciardo 31
17.? Force India 28
18. JE Vergne 23
19. Chilton 0 11th
20. Pic 0 12th
21. GvdGarde 0 14th
22. ? Marussia 0 15th




1. Red Bull 503
2. Ferrari 396
3. Mclaren 386
4. Mercedes 359
5. Lotus 244
6. Williams 97
7. Sauber 96
8. Force India 67
9. Toro Rosso 54
10. Marussia 0
11. Caterham 0

[rjbetty]

Ok, my final guesses before testing starts (these will mostly be spectacularly wrong probably)

N.B. It appears Paul di Resta has tweeted congrats to new team mate B.Senna, and Luiz Razia says the deal with Marussia is finally done.



CHAMPION - Here goes... Alonso! I'm sticking my neck out and guessing Ferrari will sacrifice 2014 if it gets them glory this year.
2.Vettel (still got plenty of time to break all records)
3.Button (I'm guessing McLaren are going to have the best car a little more clearly than last season. If Jenson finds 2011 form, maybe he can take WDC)
4.Massa (if Alonso wins, I'd say Massa for 4th. He always seems to bank the points even in bad seasons. He never finishes low down in the table)
5.Raikkonen (I have no idea how that Lotus will be; a small improvement or a big one - hopefully the latter)
6.Perez (too inconsistent but occassional brilliance in the best car to result in a couple of wins maybe. He almost won last season in a Sauber)
7.Webber (it might possibly just be downhill now for Mark. Hopefully with the DRS quali ban, he can find more against Vettel)
8.Hamilton (Somehow he will get that car to a win and decent results, but not expecting a top 6 in WDC)
9.Grosjean (more consistent, not totally crash-free but an improvement, however may lose a little shine...)
10.Rosberg (has shown in 2010 he can be at a high level. Can challenge Ham in quali if he finds this)
11.Hulkenberg (easily best of the rest. I think he can get his first podium. Hopefully Perez is right about Sauber improving)
12.Maldonado (not sure about Williams now. Staff are leaving etc. Pastor may now be more consistent but may rue failing to make more hay last year. Bottas may dent his confidence a little too. I expect more, but less spectacular points finishes than last year)
13.di Resta (Force India don't seem to have improved much? Behind the scenes worries too, but di Resta should be stronger if he sorts his attitude. I think he needs to realise he has to work to earn his way into a top team and not just expect it. But he can still do it.)
14.Ricciardo (I'm banking on you doing well Dan. Go and get that podium. May beat di Resta)
15.Bottas (Hopefully he can shine in at least some of the races. Could finish more like 12th in WDC if car is good)
16.Gutierrez (may be as much as +0.7sec off Hulk in qual, but closer in races. If car is good on tyres, may grab a podium? Otherwise, not that many points)
17.Vergne (the whole of 13th-18th could be very tight. I'm just guessing JEV is here)
18.Senna (tacking JUST on the back of the others. May return to decent qual form, as 2012 looked like an anomaly)
19.Pic (there's got to be a race eventually where someone gets a point)
Others


How the wins might be shared out (assuming 20 races):
Alonso - 5
Button - 5wins (but then I can see him beating Vettel if he gets more wins)
Vettel - 4
Perez - I guess 2 wins if the car is the best as I'm guessing it will be.
Raikkonen - 2 may be 0, but hopefully more than 2!)
Webber - Maybe just 1 win as in 2011 this time. Probably no more than 2.
Massa - would be good to see. I think he can take 1 win. Maybe 2... I'm sticking my neck out Felipe baby, so deliver.
Hamilton - I bet he will go and nick one somewhere, even if the car is poor.

Realistically, the pool of winners probably won't be that big, so I'll keep it at this

Other Possible winners:
Raikkonen - I have no idea. I'd say 0-2 wins. I have no idea if the car is going to be a big leap or not. This team kept improving from '01-'06. Why not again continue an upward trend from '09? Why not?
Grosjean - I don't think he will
Hulkenberg - I hope so, but probably not.
Rosberg - I can't see him transcending the car to win as Hamilton likely will.

My Constructors Table:
1.Ferrari - I'm trusting Felipe, but am thinking he will let me down - 460pts
2.Red Bull - 450pts
3.McLaren - may take 1st if drivers are up to it, and car is that good (as it could possibly be) 420ish pts
4.Lotus - 240pts
5.Mercedes - 180pts
6.Sauber - 90pts
7.Williams - 60pts
8.Force India - 50pts
9.Toro Rosso - 50pts
Others - 1pt (surely one day it's gotta happen)

[steveaki13]

I really hope so on the someone from Marussia or Caterham to finally score a point.

There must be a race where someone can smuggle a point 1 day. Although its more likely next season when the new engines and things come in and maybe the field is spread a bit and realiability is an issue.

[rjbetty]

I just ran a season through on Grand Prix 4 with 2013 performance levels (varying for qual and race). As I didn't have much time, I just accelerated the lot to get it done. Also, it's only 2001 tracks and 17 of them, but it could still give an idea.

With these levels for quali (converted to %) (and also modified for the race e.g. Hamilton's is lower +0.70 and Rosberg's +0.96 even more so)
1.Button
2.Vettel +0.07
3.Perez +0.18
4.Alonso +0.24
5.Webber +0.28
6.Massa +0.45
7.Raikkonen +0.45
8.Hamilton +0.54
9.Grosjean +0.54
10.Rosberg +0.67
11.Maldonado +0.78
12.Hulkenberg +1.04
13.Bottas +1.22
14.di Resta +1.24
15.Ricciardo +1.40
16.Senna +1.56
17.Vergne +1.57
18.Gutierrez +1.72
others about 3.6 - 4.5 sec off

I got something like this
1.Perez 220pts - 8 poles a bit too much...
2.Button 210pts
3.Massa 200pts - 2 wins early on
4.Alonso Retirements and problems. Lots of 2nds.
5.Webber
6.Grosjean
7.Raikkonen
8.Vettel - strange season
9.Hamilton 90pts - Won Hockenheim - just! Started pretty low down.
10.Hulkenberg 62pts - 2 podiums. Almost won Hockenheim from 14th on grid!! Retired with 3 laps to go while chasing Hamilton.
11.di Resta 54pts - Held on for a podium in Brazil!
12.Maldonado 40pts - Harried Gutierrez at the Nurburgring but had to settle for 4th.
13.Ricciardo 38pts - YAY he got a podium in my season too!!! At Hockenheim after Hulkenberg retired near the end Fisi style.
14.Gutierrez 33pts - Grabs a great podium from 6th on the grid at the Nurburgring, holding off Maldonado. Got fastest lap at Hockenheim.
15.Rosberg 32pts - 3rd in Malaysia and other points finishes put him well ahead of Ham, but then disaster.
16.Senna 26pts - grabbed a 5th somewhere early on.
17.Vergne 17pts
18.Bottas 3pts - 10th on debut, then... nowhere.
19.Pic 2pts - an astounding 9th place at the Nurburgring, in a field of 17 finishers!
20.Chilton 1pt - followed up Pic's performance at the next race, with less finishers.

I'm glad I rushed it through on accelerated time. This hasn't helped at all, though some of the main bits I remembered were pretty interesting.

[jens]

Rjbetty. Pérez 1st and Vettel 8th? Well, I highly suspect GP4 is not very good at predicting. :p :

Hmm, my thoughts...
Before the cars roll out in testing, I guess the safest guess to make is that Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari should all be pretty competitive and competing for podiums at the very least. From what I know, their design teams are pretty similar to last three seasons, so we can make some guesses based on their previous form.

Red Bull should be in the mix. The only question is if it is again open till the last race or can they make a more convincing run like in 2011. The main difference between 2011 and 2010/12 is that RBR itself managed to have a more consistent car (even won at Monza) and very good reliability as well. So they managed to fully capitalize on their speed potential. If RBR hits the ground running like in 2011 without reliability issues (like in 2010) or tyre-warming issues (like in 2012), they may well run away from others.

McLaren has designed pretty fast cars through 2010-12. Yes, even in 2011 it was pretty fast, but in both 2011 and 2012 they have had team operational issues and in both seasons there were arguments they should have won more races than they actually did. Everything is relative, but their team operations have been inferior to both RBR and Ferrari the last couple of years. Also despite the speed of the car, they have constantly had some consistency issues - in some conditions the car doesn't work very well (like at Silverstone last year). If this and the operational inferiority carries on, they are unlikely to win the title, even if the car's general speed is a match to RBR. Not to mention that neither of their drivers is a spectacular qualifying driver. This is where RBR clearly has an ace in their sleeves.

Ferrari? We can read from the last three seasons that they usually lack some outright pace, but have rather exceptional reliability and team-work. We can expect Alonso to be on the podium often, but not get many wins on outright pace. If someone gets a consistent and spectacular run (like Vettel in 2011 or Button early 2009), Alonso will be left behind in the title race. But in a more inconsistent season he will be in the mix. Of course each year Ferrari is aiming to finally design the fastest car, but it doesn't seem that they quite have it in them with their current personnel (or relatively speaking, as long as RBR and McLaren retain their design teams). However, even with slight lack of pace they have many other qualities, which make them dangerous.

The pretenders are Lotus and Mercedes. A lot is expected from them, but based on the longer trend they are not natural favourites at this stage. Lotus made a big impression last year. In some conditions (especially hot) they were on occasion genuinely capable of outracing other top teams... Was is the tyres or can they do it again? That's the big question. However, Lotus under the previous name of Renault was able to achieve podiums in 2010 and 2011 as well. So probably they will have some podium-pace at least sometimes, if not more often than that. But overall I don't expect them to win the title. Or even challenge till the end.

Mercedes has even more proving to do. There has been some serious reshuffling in the team. I get the impression it is all aimed at 2014, so miracles are not that likely in 2013.

Sauber, Williams, Force India, also STR. Occasionally impressive, perhaps an occasional podium, but that's about it.

[rjbetty]

Ok, though it's very early days yet, it must also be true to say that we are no longer completely clueless as to the general form of F1 2013.
So I thought about revisiting some predictions and seeing how they appear to stack up now.

RED BULL
My Prediction: Still be right up there, but Vettel to just lose out to Alonso and Button. Webber to slide back as he's now past his peak.
Reality: Looks like Newey and co were spinning a yarn about the law of diminishing returns and 2012 disrupting 2013 preparations, as early signs look like they've built a rocketship. May be right about Webber though.

FERRARI
My Prediction: A much better year, Massa to challenge Alonso and cause him to be grumpy.
Reality: Yup pretty much. And Massa has just outqualified Alonso, causing him to be grumpy.

MCLAREN:
My Prediction: To have the best car, with more of an advantage than in 2012! Both drivers to finish in top 6 in the WDC.
Reality: I should have known better...

LOTUS:
My Prediction: To move closer to the front. Grosjean to be more consistent than 2012 but maybe lose a little spark.
Reality: Hard to tell, but seems like it may be like this.

MERCEDES:
My Prediction: To not improve much/slip back. Hamilton to beat Rosberg overall.
Reality: They've actually improved quite a lot, and are pretty well up there with Red Bull and Ferrari, and ahead of Lotus!

SAUBER:
My Prediction: Initially said they would drop back, then changed to them having a rocketship to even beat Mercedes in Hulk's hands. Gutierrez to get a shock podium at some point, but not that much else.
Reality: It's a long season, but maybe possibly have slipped back, though only slightly.

FORCE INDIA
My Prediction: To slip back a little, to 8th in the WCC, possibly not far ahead of Toro Rosso either. Di Resta to beat Sutil (whoever is in 2nd car)
Reality: Look like the 5th or 6th best team early on! I'm convinced di Resta will beat Adrian over the season, fairly conclusively. Too much is made over his bad end to last year I think.

WILLIAMS
My Prediction: Initially that they will make another big step to be consistently a thorn in top teams' sides, and Pastor to challenge for a top 6 in the WDC, with improved consistency. Then changed to them slipping back just a little, probably behind Sauber too to 7th, but still ahead of Force India and probably Toro Rosso.
Reality: Pastor has said after Melbourne qualifying that the team are back to 2011. Guess all the pre-season stuff was (Red) Bull.

TORO ROSSO
My Prediction: To do better than people may think, but still probably being 9th overall, maybe beating Force India. Ricciardo to hopefully get a podium, but both drivers to make a step up and score plenty more points.
Reality: Hard to tell right now.

CATERHAM
My Prediction: To drop back further than in 2012, and behind Marussia.
Reality: Exactly that, and possibly even worse, though improvements may come for the European season.

MARUSSIA
My Prediction: To actually build a pretty decent car and probably beat Caterham, but get nowhere near the established teams
Reality: Early days yet, but looking like easily beating Caterham, and in Melbourne quali were actually encouragingly close to Q2, just +0.819 off 15th!

[rjbetty]

Right I thought I might bump a few old topics from the pre-season back to the top to see how things compare now and then. Hope that's ok.

[steveaki13]

Great idea Rj. (Do you mind being called Rj. Its just easier. Like typing Steve for me)

So lets see how I did.


1. Red Bull - Sad to say, I think they may win the titles again this season quite comfortably. Hope not as would like to see a different winner. Obviously Seb will finish ahead of Mark. .

Wow. Not the greatest surprise but I got that spot on. 10/10


2. Ferrari - I think Alonso will be the closest to Vettel again and maybe the only real threat. Massa? Who knows. I hope he continues like he ended last season. .

Alonso was closest to Seb. Another tick. Although not as close as I thought. Massa did have another who knows season. Pretty accurate. 8/10


3. Mclaren - Jenson could get in the title mix if the Mclaren is a good car. However I fear he will only win the odd race maybe. While Perez is a bit unknown and I predict wont win this season. .

erm........ yes moving on. 1/10


4. Mercedes- I think Lewis might win this year maybe even 2 GPs. I am not sure that the Car will be good enough to challenge. Rosberg? Well this may finally be a chance to see what hes made of. To many seasons at Williams against poor team mates in Nakajima & Wurz. Then Schumacher who all but matched him over the 3 years and its not quite clear how good Schumacher was. This will be a test. .

Lewis did win a race and the car wasn't good enough all season. Rosberg did prove himself. And predicted Mercedes roughly in the right place. Taking out the McLaren prediction. :p 7/10


5. Lotus - I fancy a decent season, but due to the competition they may finish a disappointing 5th. Kimi will race hard and secure maybe a win, but certainly a few podiums. Grosjean will get a podium but will still make errors. .

Decent season. Again apart from McLaren predicted there position in the championship compared too the front 3. Kimi did win a race and score podiums. Underated Grosjean though. 6/10


6. Williams - I fancy Williams to make a jump and finish with a semi decent season. No win like 2012 and probably no podiums due to the level of competition up front, but regular points scoring in 5th-10th places. Bottas to outscore Maldonado in his first season. .

hmm....... mostly all wrong except for Bottas outscoring Maldonado. 3/10


7. Sauber - I think Gutierrez may struggle for consistancy, and be outperformed easily by Hulkenberg who will score some big points but mostly 8th-10th places..

Gutierrez did struggle for consistency and was outperformed easily by Hulkenberg. He did score some big points. 9/10


8. Force India - I think they will struggle di Resta will not be able to perform in a conservative car and second driver also. A few points scoring races and general disappointment. .

di Resta didn't perform and they did struggle a bit, but did better than I thought. 4/10


9. Toro Rosso - I think they will push Force India, but the general lack of development willl see them only score a few points scoring positions. .

Not much to say. I got it right they would be down the bottom end. 7/10


10. Marussia - I am going to take a punt and say Chilton & ? may finish 11th once and secure 10th ahead of.

Didn't quite get 11th place, but did beat Caterham. 8/10


11. caterham - Poor drivers and lack of progress. .

Not such poor drivers, but still had them last. 7/10

12. Scorpian GP. While I know they wont take part. If they do they will be 10 seconds off the pace and fold after 4 events.[/quote]

No score for this one. :D

So I give myself ....... 70/110

Pretty good If I do say so myself. All except McLaren and Williams.

[jens]

Hmm, my thoughts...
Before the cars roll out in testing, I guess the safest guess to make is that Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari should all be pretty competitive and competing for podiums at the very least. From what I know, their design teams are pretty similar to last three seasons, so we can make some guesses based on their previous form.

I don't know, what happened to McLaren's design team, but certainly they forgot to design a fast car. Though they have lost Paddy Lowe, but he left, when McLaren's 2013 design was already well on its way.


Red Bull should be in the mix. The only question is if it is again open till the last race or can they make a more convincing run like in 2011. The main difference between 2011 and 2010/12 is that RBR itself managed to have a more consistent car (even won at Monza) and very good reliability as well. So they managed to fully capitalize on their speed potential. If RBR hits the ground running like in 2011 without reliability issues (like in 2010) or tyre-warming issues (like in 2012), they may well run away from others.

The beginning of 2013 was a bit modest, but as suspected they have the most overall potential in the car and once it was unlocked, there was no looking back. About 2011-style season.


McLaren has designed pretty fast cars through 2010-12. Yes, even in 2011 it was pretty fast, but in both 2011 and 2012 they have had team operational issues and in both seasons there were arguments they should have won more races than they actually did. Everything is relative, but their team operations have been inferior to both RBR and Ferrari the last couple of years. Also despite the speed of the car, they have constantly had some consistency issues - in some conditions the car doesn't work very well (like at Silverstone last year). If this and the operational inferiority carries on, they are unlikely to win the title, even if the car's general speed is a match to RBR. Not to mention that neither of their drivers is a spectacular qualifying driver. This is where RBR clearly has an ace in their sleeves.

Team operations, consistency and drivers' qualifying speed was always a concern, but it was a bit academic since the car didn't have much speed anyway. I think the biggest fail of predictions.


Ferrari? We can read from the last three seasons that they usually lack some outright pace, but have rather exceptional reliability and team-work. We can expect Alonso to be on the podium often, but not get many wins on outright pace. If someone gets a consistent and spectacular run (like Vettel in 2011 or Button early 2009), Alonso will be left behind in the title race. But in a more inconsistent season he will be in the mix. Of course each year Ferrari is aiming to finally design the fastest car, but it doesn't seem that they quite have it in them with their current personnel (or relatively speaking, as long as RBR and McLaren retain their design teams). However, even with slight lack of pace they have many other qualities, which make them dangerous.

Usual story again, Ferrari lacks a bit of outright speed, but is strong in other aspects and Alonso got lots of podiums. Indeed someone did get a consistent and spectacular run (Vettel again), so Alonso couldn't keep up with him, but finished a comfortable second in WDC again.


The pretenders are Lotus and Mercedes. A lot is expected from them, but based on the longer trend they are not natural favourites at this stage. Lotus made a big impression last year. In some conditions (especially hot) they were on occasion genuinely capable of outracing other top teams... Was is the tyres or can they do it again? That's the big question. However, Lotus under the previous name of Renault was able to achieve podiums in 2010 and 2011 as well. So probably they will have some podium-pace at least sometimes, if not more often than that. But overall I don't expect them to win the title. Or even challenge till the end.

Underestimated Lotus. Yes, they got podiums and couldn't keep up with title challenge, but not only did they have podium-pace "sometimes", but they had it throughout the season till the very end. 14 podiums all in all (8 for KR, 6 for RG).



Mercedes has even more proving to do. There has been some serious reshuffling in the team. I get the impression it is all aimed at 2014, so miracles are not that likely in 2013.

"Miracle" maybe didn't happen in 2013, but they were still pretty good and much better than in 2012. In any case, better than I thought. Switched places with McLaren.


Sauber, Williams, Force India, also STR. Occasionally impressive, perhaps an occasional podium, but that's about it.

"Occasionally impressive" is what can be said about them. Force India in the first half of the season, Sauber/Hülkenberg in the second half, Ricciardo's top10 qualifying sessions and Williams' Canada qualifying and USA. No podiums though di Resta and Hulk both got one fourth place, so close enough.

[zako85]

In my opinion, McLaren will not go far in 2014. First problem is that their engine supplier is now also their competitor. Mercedes cars will always be able to test new things, while the customers will be getting older more stable engine design. The second issue is with drivers. Magnussen is still an unknown quantity in the F1 world. Even if he is really talented, a race win is the best he can expect IMHO. I think McLaren in 2014/2015 may be at the same stage as they were in 1995, when they had a fresh new engine and drivers, and both needed years of additional refinement before finally having a strong season again.

RedBull probably will do very well. Considering how they kept improving the 2013 car, I suspect they still have some tricks in store that may surprise others. The team's ability to win the constructor title may be in danger if Ricciardo does not score points as reliably as Webber. Mercedes probably will be strong too.

Ferrari.. probably not as strong as the top two teams. There were rumors that Ferrari isn't happy with 2014 engines because of sound and also higher fuel consumption. It's reasonable to assume that Ferrari may be behind in engine development.

There is too much financial uncertainty surrounding Lotus and Sauber to make any predictions. With Perez and Hulkenberg, Force India will have a strong driver lineup. If the team and pit crews don't screw up, FI could become a best of the rest team.

[555-04Q2]

Realistically, we will probably see more of the same in 2014 with RBR and Vettel dominating. But! The new engines are an unknown factor for next year so we could be in for a surprise. Let's hope we get a bit more challenging to RBR's throne from Macca, Ferrari, Mercedes, Lotus etc next year :)

[henners88]

I think if I tune in to Aus 2014 and Vettel cleans up, that might be my last race of the season. I'm not wasting my time watching another season of domination and if Mercedes or Ferrari bring another car that is nearly there but not quite, I'll be very disappointed. The BBC are really pushing this period of perfection from Red Bull with suggestions it doesn't come along in sport very often. I have to say I enjoy the hunt for perfection more than its achievement in all honesty. Its fantastic for the engineers who have delivered such a great car no doubt. I dare say its great for Vettel and his fans too. He seems to be the Man Utd of F1 at the moment and is acquiring fans like you wouldn't believe. Its good for merchandise but dull for me.

I want to see a title fight in 2014. Having two out of four years without an actual title fight is putting me off. I'll hold my hands up to that one. Purely selfish from my perspective I admit.

[AndyL]

In my opinion, McLaren will not go far in 2014. First problem is that their engine supplier is now also their competitor. Mercedes cars will always be able to test new things, while the customers will be getting older more stable engine design.

That won't be the case, there is still engine homologation for 2014. Mercedes, McLaren, Williams and Force India will get identical power unit specifications. The benefit to the factory team will be that during this year, they will have been able to influence the packaging of the engine to suit their car design, but presumably the customer teams will at least have been told what they will be getting in terms of packaging.

[rjbetty]

I think if I tune in to Aus 2014 and Vettel cleans up, that might be my last race of the season. I'm not wasting my time watching another season of domination and if Mercedes or Ferrari bring another car that is nearly there but not quite, I'll be very disappointed. The BBC are really pushing this period of perfection from Red Bull with suggestions it doesn't come along in sport very often. I have to say I enjoy the hunt for perfection more than its achievement in all honesty. Its fantastic for the engineers who have delivered such a great car no doubt. I dare say its great for Vettel and his fans too. He seems to be the Man Utd of F1 at the moment and is acquiring fans like you wouldn't believe. Its good for merchandise but dull for me.

I want to see a title fight in 2014. Having two out of four years without an actual title fight is putting me off. I'll hold my hands up to that one. Purely selfish from my perspective I admit.

Henners, I'd give it more than 1 race. Maybe a good example is the WRC between 2002-2003, which I was very interested in at the time. No-one at the time could see past Marcus Gronholm and Peugeot after cleaning up in 2002 (scoring more than double the points of anyone else). When he then led the season-opening Monte Carlo Rally in 2003 (his weakest round) it all looked utterly sewn up. Yet it turned out very different as the season wore on and he dropped out of contention some time before the final round, ending up only 6th overall on 46pts to Solberg's 72.

Though it won't be quite like that for Vettel, it does show that maybe foreboding pace in the first round won't necessarily mean a dud season.

There you go. I will go and see if I can find some more straws for you to clutch. :)

[driveace]

Well unless all the teams do not UP their game by a massive amount,and Red Bulls are quick in testing out of the box in 2014,then I can see Formula 1 losing its popularity.
As a lot of viewers this year have said .,you watch the start,Vettel leads into the first corner.Then I turn off,go and wash the cars ,cut the lawns,and then in 1 and a half hours go back in and watch the finish.
And in a lot of cases ,I dont even watch the finish ,I click on Teletext.
Sky will find its viewing figures will fall too
I hope the Mercs will be quick ,although I feel that Nico is the favorite there,and Mclaren ,well I am baffled as to why they sacked the best driver,Lotus obviously short of dosh so takes on Maldonardo ,its really time some of the middle group like Sauber,Force India,stsrted to improve or did a Brawn and come up with some interesting developement that would take them up the field .

[TMorel]

There is always battles to watch, be them on track or off track. Should Seb romp away then I'd still watch like I have done for 30+ years, assuming I actually CAN watch it somewhere, the costs of getting any satellite or cable where I live is astronomical and would be cheaper for me to have just bought Lotus.

But predictions?
It's going to be tough, but I think come the end of the 2014 season, the top three will look like this....

#3 Kimi
A sure fire bet for being the 3rd most discussed driver. Forum topics will include icecreams, radio comms and how he is being lazy and just letting Fernando do all the setups / his undisputed talent means he can turn up and drive whatever he is given / he's only there for the money / he's at risk of Jacques Villeneuve replacing him mid season.

#2 Lewis
He'll probably have an above average year behind the wheel, but just one 50/50 incident towards the end of the season is all it takes to bring out the crazed defenders and the maniacal nay sayers shooting Lewis into second spot. There will be bizarre polls questioning which is ruining his career more... earrings, Coco or Rihanna.

#1 Ricciardo
he's the next god/the seats wasted/why do they tamper with his KERS.
A guaranteed number one for controversial posts, especially if Mark should get his Porsche into the top 10 at some point.

[rjbetty]

Guuuuuuuys,

I think there is a misunderstanding. This is an old thread about predictions for 2013! As in the year just gone! Not 2014. :p

I just searched it out and bumped it back up as I thought it might be interesting to look back now the season's ended.

But these are good posts anyway. :p

[steveaki13]

I understood rjbetty. I posted about my old 2013 predictions and how great I done. ;) :D

[Tazio]

Guuuuuuuys,

I think there is a misunderstanding. This is an old thread about predictions for 2013! As in the year just gone! Not 2014. :p

I just searched it out and bumped it back up as I thought it might be interesting to look back now the season's ended.

But these are good posts anyway. :p
rj this thread has grown a life of its own, just go with it. I also have a few more o.t. predictions to make.
1) I improve my FGP finish from p6 to the podium
2) I successfully defend my 2013 pickems championship.
3) The Boss will win the WDC.
Now you can dig this up next year and ridicule the shit out of me over it :spinhead: :stareup:

[Zico]

1. Mercedes to take the constructors and Drivers championships with a Lewis and Nico 1-2.
2. McLaren to make a very strong showing finishing 2nd in the Constructors and with new boy Magnusson 3rd in the WDC in a perfect debut season with Jenson being pipped back in 7th.
3. Red Bull to fall back big time finishing 3rd in the constructors with Vettel back in 4th place, Ricciardo 7th
4. Ferrari to struggle initially but make a bit of a comeback towards the end of the season with 4th in the constructors and 5th and 6th in the WDC for Alonso and Kimi.
5. Lotus 5th in the constructors following lots of collision OG's between Grojo and Maldo.


Assuming I have all my seats right of course! I think I'll stop there just now... mainly hunches but with a dash of wishful thinking! ;)

[AndyL]

OK I'll have a go. Here are my swivel-eyed prognostications for 2014.

The Mercedes engine's power advantage will be nothing like what's been speculated. In fact the first race will be won by a Renault-engined car. But major reliability problems will cause the Renault-engined teams to slide back over the season.

Lewis and Nico will be the top contenders in the first half of the year. It will cause friction within the team and they will fall out. Niki Lauda will say something that inflames the situation even more. In the end they will miss out on the titles due to mistakes rather than lack of speed. One of the drivers will leave the team at the end of the year.

At Ferrari, Kimi will win a couple of races in the first part of the season. Alonso won't like being beaten. With renewed motivation he'll come on strong in the second half of the year. He'll make some controversial moves in races but will get away with them, and overhaul Kimi, Lewis, Nico and Vettel to take the driver's title. Ferrari will also take the constructors.

McLaren will be much better than this year but without ever quite looking like title challengers. Magnussen will show enough sparks of brilliance to justify his selection, but will be too inconsistent over the season to outpoint Button. Between them they will manage to beat Red Bull for 3rd in the WCC.

Ricciardo will be over-awed by being in the big team, and brow-beaten by his dominant team-mate. Somehow he'll look worse in the Red Bull than he did in a Torro Rosso. That will cost Red Bull in the WCC. Ricciardo gets the boot at the end of the year.

Grosjean will be consistently strong and be widely tipped as a future champion. Maldonado will look foolish by comparison, but at the end of the year Maldonado's contract will be renewed and Grosjean will leave.

Force India will comfortably beat Torro Rosso, Sauber and Williams for 6th in the WCC, mainly through Hulkenberg's efforts. Sutil will start the season in the Sauber but be replaced under mysterious circumstances before the end of the season.

Jules Bianchi will score a point in a race where Maldonado and Sirotkin cause first-corner carnage, and then most of the Renault-engined cars retire with mechanical trouble.

Paul di Resta will win the Indy 500.

Finally I predict that in December 2014 I will pick one sentence from my predictions that came partly true and proclaim myself the Nostradamus of Formula 1.