I have no idea who is going to win next season!

[rjbetty]

I'm gonna really struggle to do a preview/prediction this time. It's funny how the rules are stable, so there won't be expected to be any huge changes in the pecking order, yet I'm finding it increasingly hard to pick who's going to win. Here's my best guess for now - I have no idea who's getting the Force India and Caterham seats - I'm plumping for Bianchi and... Petrov (I HOPE).

Average Qualifying 2013:
1.Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2.Jenson Button (McLaren) +0.18
3.Mark Webber (Red Bull) +0.21
4.Fernando Alonso (Ferrari) +0.35
5.Pastor Maldonado (Williams) +0.37
6.Sergio Perez (McLaren) +0.40
7.Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus) +0.45
8.Felipe Massa (Ferrari) +0.54
9.Romain Grosjean (Lotus) +0.54
10.Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) +0.69
11.Valtteri Bottas (Williams ) +0.76
12.Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) +0.82
13.Paul di Resta (Force India) +0.90
14.Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber) +1.02
15.Jules Bianchi (Force India) +1.48
16.Daniel Ricciardo (Toro Rosso) +1.52
17.Esteban Gutierrez (Sauber) +1.60
18.Jean-Eric Vergne (Toro Rosso) +1.60
19.Timo Glock (Marussia) +3.24
20.Vitaly Petrov (Caterham) +3.76
21.Charles Pic (Cateram) +3.92
22.Max Chilton (Marussia) +4.00

RED BULL
I think if the FIA hadn't kept reining in Red Bull's speed throughout the season, banning something every other race, I think they would have absolutely run away with it. They seem able to find more and more time. However, their Singapore upgrade failed to make them quickest at Singapore, or Abu Dhabi either really, so they weren't too far ahead at the end of last season. I do think the field could possibly be less close this year as Red Bull might find more performance, which doesn't get banned. If Webber couldn't win the title in 2012, I don't see any reason why he will in 2013 either.

MCLAREN
As for McLaren, they seem to get closer every year, and had the fastest car mostly 2012. Keeping that rate of progress, they could pull ahead slightly and win next year - that's if Jenson is up to the job - and if the car is, then he should be too. I expect Sergio Perez to occasionally put in a blinding performance, but in equal measure to frustrate Martin Whitmarsh by crashing and getting caught in incidents. Therefore I don't see him winning the title. He is young, and it's great to make the claims he is making - if he can back them up. I think Sergio will end 2013 a little more humbled and realising there is more to F1 than he expected. I'd put him say maybe 6th in the championship.

FERRARI
There's not much reason to believe Ferrari will suddenly produce a mega car, given that the same ingredients and processes are once again in place that created the 2010, 2011 and 2012 machines. They should at least avoid the horrific start they suffered in 2012, but I'm guessing their performance over the whole season will be as it was for the 2012 season minus the first quarter. I still believe Alonso will give his all and the Ferrari should not be further than it was last year. All he needs is to improve by 3pts compared to Vettel, and I think 2012 has shown, if we didn't know it already, that Fernando Alonso must never be counted out. I've never been a huge fan of Felipe Massa from the start when he failed to live up to pre season 2002 expectations given the rocket-powered performance of his predecessor Raikkonen (maybe that says something about who is really the best, or I'm being harsh as Nick Heidfeld had developed 1 year further by the time Massa arrived - and the car was less competitive). But there have been plenty of times when I've silently been impressed and acknowledged work well done, such as beating Villeneuve in 2005, claiming 3rd in the WDC in 2006 (never saw that coming), and embarrassing Giancarlo Fisichella in the process. And now I have to say Felipe's final third of 2012 has made an impression on me. His fortitude has shone through once again. He hasn't looked this convincing to me for years (I didn't watch any F1 in 2008 or most of 2009 so haven't known much of Massa at his peak). I really hope he can continue this sort of form and be close to 2008, or at least 2007/2009 levels. It would be really good to see Massa being strong and maybe giving Alonso headaches as I think it's healthy for the sport. Maybe even a top 6 in WDC for Felipe, but more likely top 8. Top 4 for Alonso.

LOTUS
It's hard to tell what is going to happen with Lotus next year. Romain Grosjean should improve and score much nearer to Raikkonen's total. I haven't usually rated Raikkonen that highly, and I don't understand why people say he would have won the title driving Alonso's car. I don't agree: I think it's more likely that Alonso would have won the title in Raikkonen's car. However, Kimi is another that has impressed me actually. I have to give credit to his amazing consistency; but I think people once again, take things too far by suggesting it was the greatest show of consistency over a season in F1 history. What has really caught my eye was Raikkonen's quite scintillating racecraft, even from his very first race back in Melbourne, which has to be something quite special given he hasn't been racing wheel to wheel for over 2 years. I don't remember a single tangle or incident from him all year. That is a strong record his team-mate can't currently hope to touch. 3rd in the WDC must have been above many of even his crazy fans' expectations. Many people, regardless of what they think of Alonso, like myself, respect (even without grudge) what Alonso did in 2012 (the Ferrari may not have been THAT bad, but there is no way that car should have come within 3pts of the WDC, and 2nd overall in the WCC). In the same way, I feel inside that Kimi drove in an amazingly mature way. I feel this was shown by his holding back from overtaking Vettel in Bahrain. This can be criticised, but I would defy anyone to try coming back from 2 years away from cut-and thrust racing and pull off every move successfully. Raikkonen was still working off the rust and in the heat of the moment missed his chance. I was probably too hard on Kimi in the first half of the year, when Grosjean routinely ran rings around him in qualifying. Michael Schumacher has shown it is too hard to come back in be 100% on the pace just like that. Kimi finished ahead of Romain every time though, save for Canada and the anomaly of China.

Grosjean was one of the stars of the season early on with his brilliant qualifying, and almost always being not far from victory. Crashes are forgivable for a rookie driver, and I did so up to and including even Spa. However, Japan really pushed it too far, and Abu Dhabi sealed the season as overall more negative than positive, which is a great shame indeed. Still, I'm glad Lotus made the right choice as Romain is only going to improve and he has more potential than anyone linked to his seat. It wouldn't have been wise to jettison Romain after making the investment and going through the hard times. I don't think the team were really going to sack him - they were just trying to send him a message by delaying his deal for 2013. But the team are serious about doing what is necessary, and will let a driver go, as Vitaly Petrov found out.

Lotus were definitely more impressive in the first half of the season, even having the best car maybe. James Allison said before the season started that this car was like their 2005 car. He was right! The way they faded slightly causes wonder as to whether they can sustain progress or drop back slightly. But the way I see it, this team has improved every year since 2009, so I won't be surprised to see it happen again. I wasn't expecting the Enstone team to go further for 2005 either, but they did that and more. So maybe another top 4 for Raikkonen overall, and 8th again for Grosjean.

MERCEDES
Hmmm a tough one. Some are talking about wins and a title. Lewis isn't going to make that much difference in 2013. I expect him to show up Rosberg in the races, but in qualifying to have his toughest challenge since Alonso. I don't see Mercedes improving on 5th in the WDC, especially since they were about 200pts behind the teams in front of them. They might even slip further back a place if a prediction below comes true. I won't put it past Lewis winning a race though. But no more than 2 max I'm afraid. I won't put him in the top 6 for the WDC, just top 10. As for Rosberg, maybe even that might be a stretch. Hopefully Mercedes will make up some of that deficit though - it would be great to have yet another driver or 2 challenging.

SAUBER
Here I am again predicting Sauber have kind of peaked and are set to maybe lose a little ground. I made this mistake last year, but if I keep saying this, maybe I'll get it right (unfortunately). I hope for Hulkenberg's sake that this doesn't happen and that they are at least as competitive as in 2012, and even more so. Maybe a race win is too much to expect, but Hulkenberg should definitely score his first podium if the car is up to it. I don't expect too much from Gutierrez, though he could put in one or two eye-catching results, maybe even a 2nd place or something! I hear that he has much talent, though just slightly short of Perez. It seems clear that money is the overriding factor - that is the reality of F1.

[rjbetty]

FORCE INDIA
For many, 2012 would have been seen as a disappointing season for Force India. I don't agree. Yet again, the team from Silverstone significantly improved their pace, as they have done year on year since they started in 2008. I now see them as being as strong as the old Jordan team was when they were good, and that is impressive. It's just that these days, the field is so strong in terms of both teams and drivers, making them look less impressive. I'm glad that Nico Hulkenberg defied my prediction by toppling Paul di Resta, as he seems a more humble person, and less keen to broadcast his own opinion of his talent often. Paul is still a very strong, fast and professional driver though, and should see his wish of being in a top team fulfilled sooner rather than later. As for mystery driver no.2 I actually want Alguersuari to get it. He would score a lot of points and maybe help Force India avoid dropping down another place in the WCC. It looks like being between Sutil and Bianchi though. I'm guessing Bianchi. Fair enough: He seems very talented if Ferrari have their eye on him, but binning the car in pre-season testing last year, depriving the race drivers of valuable seat time wasn't a great way to go, and we may be seeing a bit more of that if he gets the race drive.

WILLIAMS
This might be interesting. Maldonado is sounding quite confident, and Mark Gillan has quietly said that everything has gone according to schedule so far for 2013. Given that the 2012 car was actually pretty amazing, I wouldn't be surprised if Williams make a step up to become regular podium contenders next year. In fact, I am going to stick my neck out and say they will be more competitive in 2013. I can see them taking 5th in the WDC ahead of Mercedes and Maldonado even finishing in the top 6 in the WDC. Before you scoff or spit out your tea, remember that he did win a race this year. If someone had come on here and predicted the season he just had, this time last year, that person would have been laughed out of the forum. I believe in Maldonado and can see him maturing into a real team leader who can continue defying expectations. I think he can really challenge, not as in regular wins and being an outside bet for the title, as that's too much I think, but definitely being a regular thorn in the side of the top guys. I see a lot of his wild mistakes being ironed out. If you think this year of what Pastor's maximum score could have been, if we say 5th in Melbourne, 6th(?) in Malaysia (as the maximum possible without spins/collisions etc), 8th in China, 1st in Spain, 7th(?) in Monaco, 10th in Canada, 3rd in Valencia, 7th at Silverstone, 7th at Hockenheim (I think he ran over debris), 4th at Spa, 4th at Singapore, 5th at Abu Dhabi and 6th in Brazil, that's already over 100pts. He could have been 7th in the WDC actually. So with a more competitive car, and even cutting the mistakes by half, it could be possible.

I don't know enough about Valtteri Bottas. My early impression is that he's kind of similar to Robert Kubica. I don't remember Kubica's record being all that impressive (people were talking about Kovalainen, Hamilton, Montagny etc. around that time, much more than him it seemed). If he really is faster than Maldonado as the team say, then that could be correct. It may be wise not to expect miracles though, but to expect him to be maybe +0.7sec off Hamilton and Vettel (the fastest) as a driver. When I say these kind of things, they aren't foolproof and set in stone, but I believe you can get a very good idea, accurate to about 0.1sec of how fast the drivers are. A bit of license has to be taken with how fast the cars are, but it is possible to weigh drivers' performances pretty well, if not perfectly, simply though team-mate comparisons etc. Roughly, if a driver is less than 1.0sec off in their first season as Petrov was in 2010, that is good, and the driver should quite easily secure another season in the sport. As a rule of thumb, these drivers are capable of being race winners. To be +0.8sec off is very impressive. To be +0.7sec off in year 1, is likely World Champion material, as Alonso and Raikkonen were roughly in 2001. I put Montoya around +0.8sec that year. It's not perfect and it's not foolproof, but surprisingly close. It does depend on how prepared a driver is too though. Kovalainen and Hamilton came in at close to their top level already after doing tons of testing. For a driver coming in and having to learn the ropes though, to be +0.7sec off would show a good chance of being WDC material maybe. So look for Bottas to average maybe +0.4sec off Maldonado. Better than that would look very good, but it's just a rough guide.

I don't think Bottas will be like Pizzonia (who was also very highly rated by Williams) so if the car really is one of the top few next year, he could be interesting to watch. Hopefully Maldonado won't lose his edge if he gets challenged on more than the odd occasion.

TORO ROSSO
Hmmm hard to tell where this team is going. Crazy how every driver is expected to win a race just cos Vettel managed to. I don't think Vettel would have won any races in the Toro Rossos of the past 3 years. With Ricciardo being just +1.4sec off Hamilton on average in qualifying last year, my thought all year has been that the car is nowhere near that bad at all. The drivers started to look a little more solid toward the end of the year and the points did eventually start coming in quite regularly. These guys will make a step up now they have more experience. The question is, is the car going to slip further back, or improve slightly. If it's the latter, than Daniel Ricciardo and Vergne can think about challenging for top 6 positions sometimes, if not the podium that Ricciardo is going to try to get. I think this is an underrated team though.

CATERHAM
A real shame to see Kovalainen go. I think he is most deserving of the Force India drive. He is the driver who will get the points to stop that team slipping back in the WDC and beat Sauber. He is quicker than Sutil and Alguersuari too. It would also be a shame to see the last of the underrated Vitaly Petrov who has actually raced very strongly this year. Having been responsible for claiming the record 11th place that got Caterham their 10th in the WDC back, and all the money that goes with it, it would be great to see Vitaly rewarded with a race seat again, especially if he can bring even just a little sponsorship as well. Charles Pic is a good choice; he seems to drive in a mature way. I don't remember him getting caught in incidents and costing the team money last year. If van der Garde gets the drive, well there are far slower people around. The team have said that next year's car will merely be an update of their not exactly stellar 2012 car. This doesn't bode well, and I expect to see the team actually lose ground, and fall behind Marussia too.

MARUSSIA
I'm really pleased to see the, in my opinion stunning red and black cars (if that car was a girl, I would be like "she is gorgeous" :D ) really come on and grow in performance. With Timo Glock qualifying an average of less than +4.2sec off Hamilton (who had the fastest average qual time last year), 2012 was easily Marussia's most competitive year yet. This was shown in the fact that even though the team again failed to score a point, they bettered their previous best of two 14ths and a 15th in 2010 and two 14ths and two 15ths in 2011 to score not only three 14ths and three 15ths in 2012, but also a pair of 12th places, one for each driver, to boot! This may not seem exciting, but it is to me, and this is a much welcome boost for the team after some tough times. Things look to be getting even better with the arrival of a good KERS system worth at least +0.4sec a lap. The team will now benefit from their first fully prepared season using a windtunnel, as well as Pat Symonds officially joining the team, and things are looking very encouraging indeed, though they are still stuck with the once respectable Cosworth lump for the time being, as well as filling their second seat with Max Chilton, for lets face it, monetary reasons. Hopefully, the lad can be another good find and not be yet another one of these drivers to deliver a merely respectable job and disappear after one season, as that doesn't seem to help anyone really. He does look like a sort of Johnny Herbert Jr to me though.

Hopefully, Marussia or Caterham can finally bag a point somewhere this season, but I fear that though Marussia will close the gap by a good amount, there will still be too much for the time being. F1 is a very very tough sport indeed. Far more so than we realise on the outside. We talk about 5 year plans to be scoring regular points/wins/challenging for the title but in reality it will actually be very good to simply score points in 5 years. That is how I believe F1 is now. People who don't understand will look at Jordan and Sauber and think that's ridiculous. But if Caterham and Marussia had been around in the early 90s, they would probably have scored several points finishes by now.

HRT
Really sad to see these guys go. I had to give them a mention as they had defied the expectations of most during their 3 years in the sport. I think they did a very respectable job, and performed on a far higher level than the likes of Pacific, Forti etc.




So that's that: Whadya think?!

[rjbetty]

Not sure if anyone cares about this, but I put the qualifying average performances from the top post into a 2013 F1 mod for Grand Prix 4 using a GP4 Editor, and did a full simulation of the Australian Grand Prix (I accelerated most of the time as you have that option!) I thought it might give an idea as to how things might turn out in March and I was surprised how interesting I found it actually, so here's how it went:

Qualifying (accelerated time - was interested to see what the results would be):
1.Jenson Button (McLaren)
2.Sergio Perez (McLaren) +0.4 - Yay! A McLaren front row

3.Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) +0.4
4.Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) +0.5 - Wow those two are a surprise!

5.Romain Grosjean (Lotus) +0.6
6.Fernando Alonso (Ferrari) +0.6

7.Mark Webber (Red Bull) +0.7
8.Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull) +0.7 - Strange how the top 10 turns out quite close to the actual 2012 grid...

9.Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
10.Pastor Maldonado (Williams)

11.Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber)
12.Felipe Massa (Ferrari)

13.Paul di Resta (Force India)
14.Esteban Gutierrez (Sauber)

15.Jules Bianchi (Sauber)
16.Valtteri Bottas (Williams)

Then Toro Rossos on row 9, then the usual lot (led by Glock at the back).



RACE
Perez sweeps into the lead from 2nd (really similar to the real 2012 race with the McLarens) Hamilton surprises by also getting past Jenson into turn 3. Later in the lap at the left/right turn 8/9, disaster as Grosjean collides (after a bad start) and goes onto the grass and down the back. But di Resta smashes into the back of Massa coming out of 10 and retires. Massa perfectly fine but loses a few places.

Gutierrez retires from 11th on lap 3.

Valtteri Bottas has engine fire from 14th. Pic and Glock up to 14th and 15th. Grosjean loses control and takes Glock off at turn 9 (amazing how realistic this is). Grosjean spins around and rejoins but Glock drops to the back. Perez leading Hamilton; Button is 3rd but not catching Lewis. Hamilton sets fastest lap and is taking tiny bits of time out of Perez each lap. Quite enjoying this actually!

In accelerated time Max Chilton and the second Caterham retire, plus Raikkonen DNFs from 6th (crashes!) Ricciardo flew from being stuck in 16th behind Pic's Caterham early on, up to 10th by lap 10, but pitted with a problem. Never recovered and retired soon after.

Accelerated time to just past lap 30: Rosberg and Vettel are the first in, dropping to 11th and 12th. Vettel not doing particularly well really. Hamilton pits from 2nd having closed the gap to Perez gradually to just over +1sec. Makes up time on fresh tyres while Perez pits the next lap. Can Hamilton get ahead on fresh tyres? Alonso who is yet to pit and a few seconds in front of Hamilton makes it, but Hamilton just fails to.

Perez on fresh tyres comes at Alonso into turn 1, but they collide!! Alonso goes over grass, Hamilton through from 4th to 2nd. Perez spins around but rejoins in 4th. This has changed the race as Button who was running 3rd before the stops is able to make his one and only stop and stay in the lead!

Accelerated Time

Alonso, Vergne and a recovering but not particularly fast Grosjean finally make their only stop on lap 40 of 58 from 3rd, 5th and 6th respectively. Alonso down to 9th but has 18 qualifying laps to fly past people! Vettel has done well pitting early and is up to 5th, hounding Rosberg for 4th. They were 12th and 11th earlier when they had pitted.

Accelerated Time.

Around lap 45, 4 cars into turn 1 don't go, and Maldonado and Vettel both lose their front wings!! Massa was in between but came through unscathed again. Webber goes wide over grass. Now Webber and Massa chase Rosberg for 4th. Button, Hamilton and Perez are the top 3. Rosberg is miles off the pace in the second Mercedes but has held 4th for most of the race. Vettel and Maldonado are overtaken by several cars on their way round to the pits. Grosjean, trying to recover from his bad race misjudges into turn 13 and slams into the back of Maldonado, smashing his nose off and removing Maldonado's rear wing. Amazingly they are still running and Grosjean pits. Maldonado had spun into the gravel but was able to quickly recover. Jules Bianchi who had been running 13th but fairly well on his debut is now elevated to the points in 10th.

Alonso has been picking off cars and is now approaching the 3 car battle for 4th between Rosberg, Webber and his team-mate Massa. But coming to the end of the straight approaching turn 11/12 he has a problem and is slowing down!! At exactly this moment Vettel pulls off the track with an engine failure! As Alonso crawls through turn 12 with smoke coming out of the engine, Nico Hulkenberg crunches into him at full speed taking a corner off his car! They are all out. Jules Bianchi is now up to 8th. There are only 12 runners left. The recovering Grosjean and Maldonado are 9th and 10th. 11th and 12th are held by Timo Glock for Marussia and Charles Pic for Caterham. With just over 10 laps left, can they finally get their first points?!

Nerves for Button as Grosjean in 9th sets fastest lap and is catching him from a lap down on fresh tyres (yeah I KNOW it's not real but for once I'm actually finding this pretty interesting!). Hamilton is over 10sec behind in 2nd and is being chased by Maldonado, also on fresh tyres. Grosjean is catching Bianchi by miles for 8th but not many laps left.

Maldonado in 10th gets by Hamilton to unlap himself with less than 10 laps left. Maldonado sets fastest lap.

Now Hamilton is falling into the clutches of Perez in the second McLaren, the gap less than 3sec now.

Unfortunately for Glock and Pic there are to be no more retirements.

But on the last lap, having been under huge pressure from Webber and Massa for 4th, Rosberg tangles and goes off and drops to 7th (this race is uncannily like the 2012 race in some ways).

Button wins. Bianchi just avoided getting lapped by Button, and Grosjean who was chasing him is just a couple of seconds behind Button.

Final Result
1.Button
2.Hamilton +19
3.Perez +20
4.Webber +1:02
5.Massa +1:03
6.Vergne +1:06
7.Rosberg +1:12
8.Bianchi +1:31
9.Grosjean -1lap
10.Maldonado -1 lap
11.Glock - 1lap
12.Pic - 2laps

[TheFamousEccles]

Jeez, rj! Didn't you go out last night? It was NYE, ya know... ;)

Seriously though, some very thoughtful analysis - it's going to take me some time to digest this but thanks for taking the time. Now go outside and take in some fresh air!

[jens]

Wish you a pleasant new year, dear F1 fans. :) You can enjoy all the nice races and battles on the track. You can enjoy all the good emotions from the results you like. But even if there is something you don’t like, you can enjoy the thought of observing an incredibly hi-tech level of entertainment with top-notch athletes of brilliant racing drivers, outstanding professionally committed teams and very highly developed show in general.

Chess on Tarmac. A season-long game full of strategies, extreme efforts and endless pursuit for further development/improvement. We are in for another great racing season.

Thank you very much. Now in for the predictions. :)

It could be close, it may not be that close this time, we do not know. 2010 and 2012 were very contrasting years to 2011. But I think V3ttel (yeah, used the 3 there! :p : ) is the natural favourite at this stage. Mid-2012 showed that the Vettel-Red Bull machine can be stopped. But they are still incredibly hard to beat. The core structure of the team is still in place and as long as they have inspiration, motivation, skills, tools and ideas to develop racing cars, RBR seems like the team you’d like to be in. Vettel as a young man has been improving each year and will be hard to beat, even if everyone is prone to a bad patch here and there.

Alonso – quite rightfully can never be counted out. Fought for the title in 2010 and 2012, in 2011 was battling for P2 right till the end. So he is always there or thereabouts. Ferrari should have a better start to the season than in 2012. But unlike a decade ago, the team doesn’t seem to have the ability to produce spectacular racing cars any more, just good ones. And this is what might prove distracting for them once again in the title race. Especially if RBR-Vettel shrug off the inconsistent and challenging 2012 and get their 2011-machine going again.

Button? A lot of talk about his ability to „lead” a top team. Well, let’s put it this way. He is a bit sensitive and if McLaren produces a car, which is hard to set up, Jenson can go missing at times. But as 2011 showed, Button is capable of a consistently strong season if the circumstances suit him. We do not know if they suit him in 2013 yet, but if McLaren designs a genuine top car (with great reliability in addition to speed), Jenson can be a title contender. Especially with his well-known consistency in amassing points.

Räikkönen? Lotus seems to have the ability to design pretty fast cars. 2010-12 – in all of those seasons they got podiums. In 2011 they went missing after early races due to gamble in car design, which didn’t pay off. I think Lotus should be reasonably fast again, especially in the beginning. But I remain doubtful about their ability to match the likes of Red Bull over a full season. In my mind Kimi is behind Vet-Alo-But in probability of winning the title, but if someone of them has a bad season (like Jenson had last year), he can finish in front in the standings.

Second drivers of those four teams? Webber impressed in the first half of 2012, Massa in the second half. I suspect they continue with their usual inconsistent form. Pérez is an unknown, but I have a suspicion he will belong in the same group. At least in 2013. Grosjean? Well, he has loads of speed, but I am not sure he can completely get rid of his erratic style, even if less crashes in 2013 would be an obvious expectation.

Others? Mercedes had a rather contrasting 2012 – showed lots of promise early in the season, but was frankly horrible in the end. They can definitely threaten top teams on occasion, but I don’t think they can yet manage a season-long challenge. The Pirelli-era Rosberg has been a disappointment so far, but a prime-form Nico can give Hamilton a run for his money. No less than Button, maybe even more. And if I compare Rosberg to Button, I think Nico has the edge in qualifying, while Jenson in changeable conditions. Other aspects are hard to determine at the moment.

Sauber has lost James Key as chief designer and have two new drivers. They could be in for a slow start, but should improve during the season. It could be one of the most one-sided team-mate battles, because based on GP2 I’m not sure Gutiérrez is ready for F1.

There have been some doubts about Force India’s finances, but generally I expect them to perform to their usual level and strengths – in contention on fast circuits (Spa, Monza), more in the background on others. But should get minor points fairly often, even if not as many as they managed last year (over 100).

Williams should be well-positioned to design a fast car, but consistency remains in doubt. Drivers were a big let-down in 2012. Maldonado obviously has the speed, perhaps this time he can deliver more points. Bottas is expected to be good, so perhaps he can give Pastor a run for his money. Overall I don’t see them above 6th in WCC and that will depend on how well Sauber, FI and even STR can progress during the season.

I expect Toro Rosso to be stronger. Some valuable additions to the team (like J. Key) and drivers are now more experienced. They could even replicate the kind of form shown in late 2011, when Alguersuari was collecting 7th places from time-to-time, behind top3/4 teams.

Caterham will be a bit stronger than Marussia, but they will still find it hard to match the established teams.

[rjbetty]

Jeez, rj! Didn't you go out last night? It was NYE, ya know... ;)

Seriously though, some very thoughtful analysis - it's going to take me some time to digest this but thanks for taking the time. Now go outside and take in some fresh air!

Haha no I didn't! Just been kinda ill these last few days... :(

Wow reading that last post... I got a bit carried away haha. :D

[The Black Knight]

Unlike other years, I think next year is one of the easier years to predict.

In all likelihood it's going to be a toss up between Vettel and Alonso for the championship again. I can see Ferrari having a strong car last year.

McLaren - Button I don't believe to be good enough to win consistently without a vastly superior car and with the stability in the rules no on team is likely to have this. Perez isn't experienced enough and is a very unknown quantity.

Mercedes - Unlikely to be a real threat as the car isn't up to scratch but I do think this is Nico's chance to shine as he is vastly underrated in my opinion.

Lotus - Kimster might pull a surprise out of the bag alright now that he is second year back in F1 if Lotus give him the car.

RBR - Webber isn't good enough to keep up with Vettel over the course of a season it seems so Vettel there

Ferrari - Only one driver there that will be in the title hunt come the end of the season and that's Alonso.

So in short - Vettel vs Alonso vs Kimi

If Ferrari pull out a better car and Alonso drives like he did last year then he will be champion.

[steveaki13]

I hate to say it, but I think Vettel will win the 2013 championship easily.


Im hoping some one will put enough effort into 2013 to challenge the Red Bull.

Red Bull - Vettel will be mighty in another great Car, Webber will pick up the pieces but finish way behind again.

Mclaren- I think Mclaren will produce a decent car, but may well struggle to turn that into many wins with the raw Perez and occasionally steady Jenson.

Ferrari - Who knows? It will again be a case of Alonso thrashing Massa but whether Alonso has a car good enough to challenge is anyones guess.

Lotus - I think they will produce a great car and Kimi will win a couple of races and should the season be tighter than I think, maybe Kimi will have a chance of a title challenge. Grosjean will improve a score more points and podiums, but will still make errors.

Mercedes - This is really hard to call. Lewis will outperform Nico despite not knowing the team or car, but whether his is battling for podiums or tail end points. Who knows. I think 2014 will be key for Mercedes.

Sauber - Who knows. Hulkenberg will score the more points, but I dont see them being as strong as last season.

Force India - di Resta really needs to lift his game for this 3rd season. He feel away last season and needs to revive his career.

Williams - I see another dissapointing season, after last years improved show. Bottas will impress at times, but Pastor will contiunue to bemuse.

Toro Rosso - Bland and uninspiring. Same as.

Caterham - Who knows again, they need to take that step, but whether they can is another question.

Maurussia - I personally hope Chilton has a car that allows him to at least challenge Caterhams and race hard.

Overall I predict a quieter season than 2012. Before the radical change of 2014

[jens]

In addition to rjbetty's qualifying prediction may I share may championship prediction. In an excel table I played through all championship races and these are how the points are gathered by the end of the season. 20 races all in all, New Jersey being replaced by Magny-Cours. :p :

1. Vettel (RBR) - 332
2. Alonso (Ferrari) - 294
3. Button (McLaren) - 246
4. Webber (RBR) - 198
5. Pérez (McLaren) - 157
6. Massa (Ferrari) - 136
7. Räikkönen (Lotus) - 119
8. Hamilton (Mercedes) - 102
9. Grosjean (Lotus) - 96
10. Rosberg (Mercedes) - 90
11. Hülkenberg (Sauber) - 72
12. Ricciardo (STR) - 38
13. Maldonado (Williams) - 31
14. Di Resta (Force India) - 30
15. Bottas (Williams) - 23
16. Gutiérrez (Sauber) - 20
17. Vergne (STR) - 18
18. Bianchi (Force India) - 17
19. Petrov (Caterham) - 1
20. Pic (Caterham) - 0
21. Glock (Marussia) - 0
22. Chilton (Marussia) - 0

I am ready to get proven wrong. In fact, it would be good if the reality was rather different, because it would be boring if a season is too easy to predict. :p :

Some notes.

Due to ban of DDRS Ferrari is better in qualifying with Alonso on several occasion qualifying to the front row.

Hamilton qualifies on the front row on several occasions, but Merc's consistency, race pace and reliability still leave a bit desired. So he drops out of podium positions, but still gets a fair amount of 4th-6th places.

Lotus shows glimpses of promise with both drivers getting some podiums, but overall struggle to keep up with the development of the first three teams. I felt part of the reason, why Lotus was so good in 2012, was that somehow they managed to adapt to those tricky tyres rather well (better than most teams), which is hard to repeat.

Hülkenberg gets two podiums. One in a wet race, where he along with Button make an inspired tyre call like in Brazil last year - and run away from the field.

Ricciardo puts himself up in the attention of the silly season, when he gets a podium in mixed conditions at Spa. However, I haven't predicted silly season, so I don't know if he and Hülkenberg move into better teams.

[rjbetty]

Haha that was cool Jens! That looks like a realistic picture of how it could turn out. I hope it's a bit more exciting though and more teams can challenge as in 2012. Hope Ricciardo can get that podium in real life! Nice to see Caterham grabbing a point. I hope it is Petrov, or maybe Senna in that seat - someone who can take advantage of chances.

Reading the other posts and what people in F1 are saying, there are reasons for and against every team doing well in 2013, so I'm gonna run through them, and try not to use so many words (I can get carried away, then when I see the post I'm like whoa!)

RED BULL:
FOR - As aki13 said, Vettel and Red Bull winning those 4 races in a row towards the end looks ominous for 2013. The team took half a season to get on top of their car - that won't happen this time - they will have that end-of-season form from the start! Plus take into account how dominant they could have been without all that stuff being banned, and it looks like their natural level is way ahead of the rest. Vettel is only going to grow in confidence and get even better.

AGAINST: McLaren were still quicker at certain tracks towards the end (Singapore, Abu Dhabi? Brazil? - in qual anyway) and Hamilton beat Vettel fair and square in Austin. Webber may only get worse now. Unless he can find something, it looks like since he didn't win the title in 2012, he probably won't in 2013.

FERRARI
FOR: The team should avoid their disastrous 2012 opening. Massa looks like he could be much stronger and have his best season since before his crash.
Rule stability may allow car to close gap. Not much else...

AGAINST: The 2013 car will again be produced by the same people behind the un-stellar 2009/10/11/12 cars. Alonso may be getting tired of carrying the team - he is not a machine. Massa may put pressure on him and challenge, which we know is his weak point.

MCLAREN:
FOR: Team made a fair leap for 2012, continuing an upward curve. Still started 1-2 in Brazil. They could continue their trajectory and pull out an advantage. Button has team to himself and knows he can win a title. Maybe more harmony with Lewis gone. Probable stash of cash from Perez's sponsors. Pit stop problems now sorted.

AGAINST: Star driver has gone (HE chose to leave) - doubts over Jenson despite title win. Despite what Perez will tell you, I can't see him winning the title. Will probably be humbled and find life at the top harder than expected (always seems to be the case with these young guys trying to take on the world). May crash a lot through overdriving. Consistency a concern for all. If car is anything less than the best, no chance.

LOTUS:
FOR: have stepped up every season since 2009, so why not again in 2013? It may be a lot like 2001-2006, they kept getting better every year. Still much the same as the team that won in 2005-6. Drivers will be much more prepared and honed.

AGAINST: Fell away in development last year - but they did take a wrong turn. When corrected, they started closing again and won a race! Could just as easily fall back as go forwards...

MERCEDES:
FOR: The fastest driver in the world joins. "Monster" :) will no doubt inspire the team and Nico to more. Will probably win a race. No way Schumacher's terrible circumstances of 2012 will be repeated, so that car should score a representative amount of points this time. They have sacrificed the end of last year to prepare for this and 2014...

AGAINST: ...but that's what they've been saying EVERY year!! Gap is very large to Red Bull - too big to close probably. Also, with Hamilton's possible histrionics if things don't go well (very possible here!), and one of the most political, troublemaking guys ever replacing Norbert Haug, Ross Brawn may be making more visits to the pub to try to cope.

SAUBER:
FOR: Can build on a brilliant 2012 car. Have improved every year since 2010. Perez says the team will continue to build and can win in 2013. A certain Mr Hulkenberg has joined - he should be stronger than the 2012 drivers and is developing very well.

AGAINST: Gutierrez was clearly signed for money, and the man himself says he isn't ready. Surely no real chance of challenging Hulkenberg, so Hulk won't be pushed further... Funding concerns may see the team drop back. Car may have peaked and fall back a little. James Key has left for Toro Rosso.

FORCE INDIA:
FOR: Have defied expectations and gotten stronger and stronger every year.
AGAINST: Can just as easily have peaked too. The second driver will definitely be a step down from Hulkenberg. Di Resta may not be pushed. Second driver may be inconsistent and more accident-prone and will definitely be slower. Possible funding concerns. Kovalainen deserves that seat as I think he's better than Kobayashi and the best driver without a ride at the moment.

WILLIAMS:
FOR: Mark Gillan says all has been going smoothly. The team may make another step and start to become a top team again. Maldonado is only going to be quicker and make less mistakes. Bottas sounds like an improvement over the 2012 spec Bruno Senna.

AGAINST: Mark Gillan has now left. Bottas may crash a lot? Again, could just as easily drop back as move forward. Maldonado might feel more pressure from Bottas than B.Senna and lose performance.

TORO ROSSO:
FOR: Drivers far more experienced now, and the points were really starting to come in towards the end of last year. Toro Rosso have been given kick up the behind by bosses and changes have been made, namely the arrival of James Key. May have another 2011 style year. Ricciardo might get that podium if it goes anything like what Jens had.

AGAINST: Car clearly 9th best in 2012 and could well slip back further.

CATERHAM:
FOR: Rules stability may allow them to close. Money from WCC 10th is a needed boost at this time. That's about all.
AGAINST: Financially in trouble, as shown by dumping Kovalainen, and maybe Petrov too. Driver line up probably weaker and less experienced. Most of all, the team said the 2013 car will be basically the 2012 car with added updates. Doesn't sound inspiring. May drop back as front teams pull ahead.

MARUSSIA:
FOR: Coming off best ever season. Only just lost 10th in WCC. Pat Symonds joins full time. Car will be the first ever fully produced in a windtunnel - and McLaren's one to boot! Team has been rejuvenated and starting to look more serious. KERS also arrives, giving at least 0.4sec per lap probably!
AGAINST: The second driver doesn't look up to the standard of Pic. May be the weakest of all Marussia's drivers since the start, but... not by much. Marussia pipped at the post for 10th in WCC last year, losing them precious money and prestige.



EDIT: Yup, just seen the post and have surprised myself. Maybe I need to learn to be more succinct.

[rjbetty]

Ok, since the 2013 cars will probably all be evolutions of the 2012 ones, I thought if I see how many points some of the drivers could have got if everything went right (i.e. the optimum score possible) in 2012, it can give a good idea of the form going into 2013.

So for example, Lewis Hamilton scored 190pts last year. But if he hadn't been sent to the back of the grid in Spain, the likely result is that he would have won (he was hugely ahead in qualifying). There is definitely guesswork involved here, but this should be at least a reasonably good indicator. I also make the maximum result for Lewis in Australia 2nd rather than 3rd. For all the races I make it roughly

Australia - safety car, bad pit timing messed him up - 2nd
Malaysia - ahead of Alonso before bad pitstop - 3rd
China - 2nd if not for gearbox penalty - 2nd
Bahrain - 5th without bad pitstop - 5th
Spain - 1st
Valencia - 4th, hit by Maldonado. Surely wouldn't have held 3rd with those shot tyres.
Germany - Now I do believe he was a little quicker than Jenson despite quali. Given Jenson was so close to Alonso, I'm gonna guess Lewis could have overtaken him. He did do so while a lap down, though on fresher tyres and Alonso had nothing to lose, but Alonso WAS trying hard to keep him behind as a buffer. I am going to go with a Lewis win as at Germany 2011.
Belgium - 4th. I'd say he'd have beaten Hulkenberg but not Raikkonen.
Singapore - 1st
Japan - 2nd, Massa was 2nd. Lewis was delayed in quali, starting 9th. I think Lewis was definitely quicker than Jenson.
Korea - 5th? Don't know.
Abu Dhabi - 1st
Brazil - 1st

This comes to roughly 360pts if I give him a few more for 3rd at Monaco (he said he could have got that). It's not exact science, but I don't think it's ridiculously far out either. Close enough to get a good idea.

Doing this for others, I make their maximum points more or less this

1.Vettel - 360pts
2.Hamilton - 360pts
3.Alonso - 320pts - The Ferrari must have been close to the top in race trim.
4.Button - 250pts
5.Webber - 240pts
6.Raikkonen - 240pts
7.Grosjean - 190pts
8.Maldonado - 140pts
9.Massa - 140pts
10.Perez - 130pts (the hardest by far to tell, had to take quie a lot of guesswork...)
11.Schumacher - 130pts
12.Rosberg - 120pts
13.Koabayashi - 100pts (hard to tell)

Perez was the hardest. I'd say 4th for Spain, but why not another podium or even a win? What about Silverstone? If he'd had started on pole and got through the first lap 1st, what's to say he couldn't have won? Look at the progress he was making in the race from 16th. Hard to know. The 130pts is based on lesser results than that - I gave him 4th for Spain.

Adrian Newey is saying Red Bull have been compromised for 2013 by their 2012 efforts, and also he is experiencing the law of diminishing returns. Sounds good for the field closing up. However, this should be based on their end-of-season form, not the whole season which includes their middling start. If Red Bull had had that car the whole season, then I'd say Vettel's points maximum would have been over 400 probably.

[ruesluporp]

Lack of idea? Think to Renault!

[heliocastroneves#3]

Jos Verstappen of course!!

[keysersoze]

Not buying that Lewis Hamilton will struggle and will have to accept 2013 as a transition year. It won't be up to his lofty standards, but I believe he will make that team better--they must feel absolutely on top of the world to have a driver like him on board, a tiger at all times. I'm speculating he'll be good for 175-195 points, perhaps a win, bag 5-6 podiums, and grid on the first two rows 8-9 times.

He's got a good chance to finish ahead of both Renaults, his teammate (of course), and Perez. Beating Jenson and a rejuvenated Massa may be more difficult, but I wouldn't discount the possibilty. He's got an outside shot at Webber. Alonso and Vettel are probably untouchable this season.

[rjbetty]

Not buying that Lewis Hamilton will struggle and will have to accept 2013 as a transition year. It won't be up to his lofty standards, but I believe he will make that team better--they must feel absolutely on top of the world to have a driver like him on board, a tiger at all times. I'm speculating he'll be good for 175-195 points, perhaps a win, bag 5-6 podiums, and grid on the first two rows 8-9 times.

He's got a good chance to finish ahead of both Renaults, his teammate (of course), and Perez. Beating Jenson and a rejuvenated Massa may be more difficult, but I wouldn't discount the possibilty. He's got an outside shot at Webber. Alonso and Vettel are probably untouchable this season.

Wow I hope it can be this way. Actually it might be a pretty decent season though I'm still sceptical that it can be quite as good as described above. It seems that Mercedes are more likely to edge forwards even if only slightly, rather than go backwards. In the worst case scenario I think Lewis's average qualifying average time will be +0.7sec (same as Rosberg in 2012) off whoever's the best this season, but I'd guess it could be as high as +0.4sec. I don't see Mercedes making any big leap forward this season.

As for the Lotus, who says it won't be a good step over the previous car, just because it looks similar to last years? I learned not to make that mistake in 2004 when everyone said Ferrari wouldn't win the title as their car looked the same, whereas McLaren and Williams had gone radical and ugly. The lesson was not to judge by outward appearances. :) Really hoping it will be good enough for Kimi to have a go at the title and for Romain to win a race. But I predict their (Kimi's) qualifying average will be +0.45sec off Vettel, or whoever is the quickest. So not a massive leap by any means.

[jens]

Not buying that Lewis Hamilton will struggle and will have to accept 2013 as a transition year. It won't be up to his lofty standards, but I believe he will make that team better--they must feel absolutely on top of the world to have a driver like him on board, a tiger at all times. I'm speculating he'll be good for 175-195 points, perhaps a win, bag 5-6 podiums, and grid on the first two rows 8-9 times.

He's got a good chance to finish ahead of both Renaults, his teammate (of course), and Perez. Beating Jenson and a rejuvenated Massa may be more difficult, but I wouldn't discount the possibilty. He's got an outside shot at Webber. Alonso and Vettel are probably untouchable this season.

Optimistic view. If Mercedes can be consistently as good as they sometimes seemed in early 2012, you may have a point. But if they have serious tyre degradation issues again, then no chance. Recently I watched Schumi's Austin 2012 GP onboard. Absolutely hopeless. If the car performs like that, no-one can do anything about it.

[rjbetty]

Not buying that Lewis Hamilton will struggle and will have to accept 2013 as a transition year. It won't be up to his lofty standards, but I believe he will make that team better--they must feel absolutely on top of the world to have a driver like him on board, a tiger at all times. I'm speculating he'll be good for 175-195 points, perhaps a win, bag 5-6 podiums, and grid on the first two rows 8-9 times.

He's got a good chance to finish ahead of both Renaults, his teammate (of course), and Perez. Beating Jenson and a rejuvenated Massa may be more difficult, but I wouldn't discount the possibilty. He's got an outside shot at Webber. Alonso and Vettel are probably untouchable this season.

This is looking quite likely to be the case now!


Right, I'm going to now write my championship pickem/prediction before FP1 Melbourne 2013 starts, now that testing has finished:

(Rough pts totals)

1.Alonso 240pts
2.Button 232pts
3.Vettel 221pts
4.Raikkonen 189pts
5.Hamilton 165pts
6.Massa 160pts
7.Perez 152pts
8.Grosjean 136pts
9.Webber 134pts
10.Rosberg 110pts
11.Hulkenberg 58pts
12.Maldonado 54pts
13.Bottas 37pts
14.Ricciardo 32pts
15.di Resta 30pts
16.Gutierrez 29pts
17.Vergne 22pts
18.Sutil 17pts
19.Bianchi
20.Pic
21.Chilton
22.van der Garde

[steveaki13]

This is looking quite likely to be the case now!


Right, I'm going to now write my championship pickem/prediction before FP1 Melbourne 2013 starts, now that testing has finished:

(Rough pts totals)

1.Alonso 240pts
2.Button 232pts
3.Vettel 221pts
4.Raikkonen 189pts
5.Hamilton 165pts
6.Massa 160pts
7.Perez 152pts
8.Grosjean 136pts
9.Webber 134pts
10.Rosberg 110pts
11.Hulkenberg 58pts
12.Maldonado 54pts
13.Bottas 37pts
14.Ricciardo 32pts
15.di Resta 30pts
16.Gutierrez 29pts
17.Vergne 22pts
18.Sutil 17pts
19.Bianchi
20.Pic
21.Chilton
22.van der Garde

I chose Button in my FGP and after practice I am not sure he'll be finishing second in the standings

[jens]

Looks like McLaren is going to get less points than what I predicted. But nonetheless they will improve significantly during the season. However, that would probably be too late for titles (again).

[steveaki13]

Looks like McLaren is going to get less points than what I predicted. But nonetheless they will improve significantly during the season. However, that would probably be too late for titles (again).

They always seem slow after a good season in recent years. 2004 after Kimis title charge in 2003 their 2004 car was poor.

2009 after Lewis winning the title.

2013 now after a fast 2012 car

[rjbetty]

They always seem slow after a good season in recent years. 2004 after Kimis title charge in 2003 their 2004 car was poor.

2009 after Lewis winning the title.

2013 now after a fast 2012 car

And a winless 2006 that followed a 2005 in which they were consistently the fastest car.

[steveaki13]

I have heard a lot of people saying. Dont judge them so early, they can develop the car through the season and start winning again.

I always think "True, but it will be too late and their season will be over".

They have to start a season consistantly with a good car. Hence why so few championships have been delivered

[jens]

I have heard a lot of people saying. Dont judge them so early, they can develop the car through the season and start winning again.

I always think "True, but it will be too late and their season will be over".

They have to start a season consistantly with a good car. Hence why so few championships have been delivered

True. Basically a slow start can work only in a topsy-turvy season, where no-one can pull decisively ahead and everyone's form is fluctuating wildly. Like in 2003 and 2012 Williams and Ferrari respectively had a slow start and took some time to unleash the potential of the car, yet were fighting for the title in the end.

But in a consistent season like 2011 you would play catch-up all season long. Let's see, which kind of season 2013 is going to be.

[DexDexter]

I have heard a lot of people saying. Dont judge them so early, they can develop the car through the season and start winning again.

I always think "True, but it will be too late and their season will be over".

They have to start a season consistantly with a good car. Hence why so few championships have been delivered

IMO they have a fundamental problem in the design office, since they cannot replicate success year after year. Look at Red Bull, they are always on the pace no matter what you do with the regulations, but that's basically down to one man, which I find unbelievable in this day and age.

[jens]

IMO they have a fundamental problem in the design office, since they cannot replicate success year after year. Look at Red Bull, they are always on the pace no matter what you do with the regulations, but that's basically down to one man, which I find unbelievable in this day and age.

It is never down to one man, but simply Newey has managed to get a very good team around him. And I think Horner's efforts in getting and keeping the team together have been very underrated as well. In any case, every person in an F1 team has their own field of work. You may be a genius in your role, but if you haven't got a team to support/complement your skills, you can do nothing. Newey may have great ideas, but other people in other roles must be smart enough to understand and implement them in their activities properly. It applies to every field in life, by the way.

Basically in my view the whole RBR team is a bit underappreciated (with the exception of Newey), and that includes Vettel and should I say Webber as well! They are all doing a truly spectacular job! And domination in any kind of world-class level demands perfection and superb performance from everyone contributing to the effort. World-class level is just so high that you can't do with anything less than that.

[steveaki13]

You are spot on Jens.

Red Bull the Team have designed then built 4 and maybe now 5 incredible F1 cars.

It may have been the best car but Vettel has used it brilliantly and even Webber has helped secure the constructors.

Whatever anyone has said, this team are one hell of a team.

úp cho ngÃ*y cu?i tu?n nÃ*o :D

[rjbetty]

fnajklsvhglas~?bD???~VA?~fw0i2979376r281vk?'A{lcsa {b to you too.

That's the first time I've seen a spam bot using a smiley though. They're getting more advanced.

[steveaki13]

fnajklsvhglas~?bD???~VA?~fw0i2979376r281vk?'A{lcsa {b to you too.

That's the first time I've seen a spam bot using a smiley though. They're getting more advanced.

be afraid, the use of smiley's is sign they are going to take over the world.

[DexDexter]

]It is never down to one man, but simply Newey has managed to get a very good team around him. And I think Horner's efforts in getting and keeping the team together have been very underrated as well. In any case, every person in an F1 team has their own field of work. You may be a genius in your role, but if you haven't got a team to support/complement your skills, you can do nothing. Newey may have great ideas, but other people in other roles must be smart enough to understand and implement them in their activities properly. It applies to every field in life, by the way.[/B]

Basically in my view the whole RBR team is a bit underappreciated (with the exception of Newey), and that includes Vettel and should I say Webber as well! They are all doing a truly spectacular job! And domination in any kind of world-class level demands perfection and superb performance from everyone contributing to the effort. World-class level is just so high that you can't do with anything less than that.

I know it's not as simple as that but for some reason success always follows Newey. Even at Leyton House in 1990 after they had sacked him.

[rjbetty]

I know it's not as simple as that but for some reason success always follows Newey. Even at Leyton House in 1990 after they had sacked him.

I always found that odd. Why on earth DID they sack him? I always assumed he just left for Williams. Those Leyton House cars were amazing really, scoring podiums and almost winning the 1990 French GP with Ivan Capelli.

[DexDexter]

I always found that odd. Why on earth DID they sack him? I always assumed he just left for Williams. Those Leyton House cars were amazing really, scoring podiums and almost winning the 1990 French GP with Ivan Capelli.

They sacked him cause the car seemed to be a total failure in the beginning. They had just misinterpreted Newey's drawings.

[rjbetty]

They sacked him cause the car seemed to be a total failure in the beginning. They had just misinterpreted Newey's drawings.

Thanks. :) Wow what an incredibly foolish decision! Even back then they should have known better, surely.

[jens]

So in short - Vettel vs Alonso vs Kimi


Based on Oz looks like this guess may not be too far-fetched. :) In any case an interesting start to the season, which throws various possible scenarios into the air.

I do feel though that for Räikkönen to effectively participate in the title fight he and Lotus really need a great run in the beginning of the season, much like its predecessor Renault had in 2005-06. Lotus has got a very good team headed by technical director James Allison, but due to lesser funding or something else I suspect they are again going to lack the edge that Ferrari and Red Bull have in the development race. So capitalizing on current form and getting multiple wins early in the season is absolutely paramount.

[rjbetty]

I'm bumping this up from the pre-season to see how things turned out in comparison.

Wow keyzersoze well done, you called Hamilton and Mercedes perfectly!!

[jens]

1. Vettel (RBR) - 332
2. Alonso (Ferrari) - 294
3. Button (McLaren) - 246
4. Webber (RBR) - 198
5. Pérez (McLaren) - 157
6. Massa (Ferrari) - 136
7. Räikkönen (Lotus) - 119
8. Hamilton (Mercedes) - 102
9. Grosjean (Lotus) - 96
10. Rosberg (Mercedes) - 90
11. Hülkenberg (Sauber) - 72
12. Ricciardo (STR) - 38
13. Maldonado (Williams) - 31
14. Di Resta (Force India) - 30
15. Bottas (Williams) - 23
16. Gutiérrez (Sauber) - 20
17. Vergne (STR) - 18
18. Bianchi (Force India) - 17
19. Petrov (Caterham) - 1
20. Pic (Caterham) - 0
21. Glock (Marussia) - 0
22. Chilton (Marussia) - 0


Despite inadequacy in several ways, maybe one of my best preditions ever since I got first and second position in WDC standings right. Which is not always an easy thing to do. :p

Vettel dominated more than that, Alonso could keep up with him less than that. However, the advantage of both drivers above their team-mates (Webber and Massa) turned out to be roughly the case.

McLaren of course was much weaker, but from relative point of view Button did roughly have the kind of advantage over Pérez. Well, if we try to take a % of points from team-mate battles.

Mercedes and Lotus were stronger, maybe largely due to the incompetence of McLaren, but also Ferrari. The lead drivers of both teams scored slightly below 200 instead of slightly above 100. Rosberg was close to Hamilton. I overestimated Grosjean a bit compared to Räikkönen though he came good later on.

Hülkenberg wasn't far from this score and his second half of the season roughly reflected of what I was expecting. Sauber started out very slow though and had more financial issues than I thought. Gutiérrez didn't get even that though.

Force India was a positive surprise early in the season, so they got more points than that. Sutil instead of Bianchi, but points wouldn't have changed too much.

Ricciardo was a bit of a relevation of the season and was subsequently snapped up by Red Bull. He didn't get a podium though (like I predicted :p ) and had less points than that.

Williams was the disappointment, roughly on their 2011 level. In reality Bottas outscored Maldonado, but since they got only very few scoring chances, it didn't tell too much.

And we still haven't got a chaotic race to enable a Marussia or Caterham scoring a point. :p

Maybe will try to predict 2014 too despite a lot of unknowns! I like the exercise of it, attempting to understand F1 and its general processes more. However, I am still unsure, how could McLaren's such a bad season be predicted. There weren't really any proper markers beforehand to pinpoint to the shocker of a car they were going to produce.