The "I was wrong" 2 Thread! Pre-season predictions re-visited.

[rjbetty]

OK We're pretty much halfway through the season now, so let's look back and see how wrong it's turned out to be. Here are the predictions I posted around February/March

Predicted Average Qualifying Time Gaps
=========================
1.Sebastian VETTEL (Red Bull)
2.Lewis HAMILTON (McLaren) +0.17
3.Mark WEBBER (Red Bull) +0.24
4.Jenson BUTTON (McLaren) +0.28
5.Fernando ALONSO (Ferrari) +0.54
6.Nico ROSBERG (Mercedes) +0.60
7.Felipe MASSA (Ferrari) +0.78
8.Michael SCHUMACHER (Mercedes) +0.88
9.Kimi RAIKKONEN (Lotus) +0.90
10.Romain GROSJEAN (Lotus) +1.20
11.Nico HULKENBERG (Force India) +1.41
12.Paul DI RESTA (Force India) +1.47
13.Sergio PEREZ (Sauber) +1.74
14.Pastor MALDONADO (Williams) +1.76
15.Bruno SENNA (Williams) +1.78
16.Jean-Eric VERGNE (Toro Rosso) +1.94
17.Kamui KOBAYASHI (Sauber) +1.94
18.Daniel RICCIARDO (Toro Rosso) +2.02
19.Heikki KOVALAINEN (Caterham) +2.48
20.Vitaly PETROV (Caterham) +2.84
21.Timo GLOCK (Marussia) +4.82
22.Charles PIC (Marussia) +5.34
23.Pedro DE LA ROSA (HRT) +5.64
24.Narain KARTHIKEYAN (HRT) +6.28


MY CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION

DRIVERS
1.Sebastian VETTEL (Red Bull) 312pts
2.Lewis HAMILTON (McLaren) 297pts
3.Jenson BUTTON (McLaren) 291pts
4.Mark WEBBER (Red Bull) 234pts
5.Fernando ALONSO (Ferrari) 214pts
6.Michael SCHUMACHER (Mercedes) 142pts
7.Felipe MASSA (Ferrari) 124pts
8.Nico ROSBERG (Mercedes) 118pts
9.Kimi RAIKKONEN (Lotus) 74pts
10.Paul DI RESTA (Force India) 48pts
11.Romain GROSJEAN (Lotus) 38pts
12.Nico HULKENBERG (Force India) 32pts
13.Sergio PEREZ (Sauber) 23pts
14.Kamui KOBAYASHI (Sauber) 19pts
15.Jean-Eric VERGNE (Toro Rosso) 15pts
16.Bruno SENNA (Williams) 14pts
17.Daniel RICCIARDO (Toro Rosso) 10pts
18.Pastor MALDONADO (Williams) 9pts
19.Heikki KOVALAINEN (Caterham) 4pts
20.Vitaly PETROV (Caterham)
21.Timo GLOCK (Marussia)
22.Charles PIC (Marussia)
23.Pedro DE LA ROSA (HRT)
24.Narain KARTHIKEYAN (HRT)

The Lotus, Sauber and Williams drivers have all already exceeded my predicted points totals!
My 5th place for Alonso raised some eyebrows as people weren't expecting him to score that many points. He is actually doing much better than even that and is on course to score more points than I have him down for here.


CONSTRUCTORS
1.McLaren - Mercedes 588pts
2.Red Bull Racing - Infiniti 546pts
3.Ferrari - Ferrari 338pts
4.Mercedes - Mercedes 260pts
5.Lotus GP - Renault 112pts
6.Force India - Mercedes 80pts
7.Sauber - Ferrari 42pts
8.Toro Rosso - Ferrari 25pts
9.Williams - Renault 23pts
10.Caterham - Renault 4pts
11.Marussia - Cosworth
12.HRT - Cosworth

Initially it looked like I'd got it right about McLaren, but now they're 4th and not looking like they're going anywhere. Caterham are sadly still yet to get a point, let alone 4 - but they have gotten closer to doing so than ever. Mercedes might now struggle to reach 260pts because of Schumacher's lack of results - which are THEIR fault.

[jens]

I was wrong, hmm...

Ferrari F2012 was indeed underdeveloped and with unlocked real potential in winter testing and it didn't mean they were doomed...

[N4D13]

I suppose pretty much everyone was wrong, as it was really difficult to predict how this season would unfold. Personally, I expected Vettel to be clearly in front again with Red Bull having the fastest car, although by not as big a margin as they had last year. Fortunately, I was wrong... :p

[F1boat]

For me Mark Webber is the best surprise this season. He really, really defied expectations.

[Big Ben]

I was wrong about DRS. I've been very much against it but now I see it's a good thing after all. I no longer waste nice, sunny Sunday afternoons in front of a TV set.

[I am evil Homer]

For me i think it's been Grosjean...I didn't think he'd be doing as well as he is and but for some misfortune could have had a lot more points. I think going away to learn a bit more has helped him no end.

[pino]

I was wrong about Alonso...I didn't think he was so good :eek: :p :

[rjbetty]

Stuff I got wrong: Most of it :eek:

Here are the main ones:
1.Jenson to take the title (after the first few races) - He will struggle to reach the 290pts I had him down for. He has just over 50 at this point in time Steve. ;)
He can still do it if he wins 10 of the next 11 races!!
2.Lotus to be vulnerable to the clutches of Force India! Ooops
3.Vergne to beat Ricciardo - He still can do, and actually has more points.
4.Michael to come 6th in the championship - I had stuck my neck out on this one. Looks tough now, but if he'd enjoyed Rosberg style reliability he would already be there now!
5.Hulkenberg to better Paul di Resta in qualifying - this can still happen.
6.Sauber to slip backwards and be holding off Toro Rosso for 9th.
7.Massa to make a big improvement! He is now coming on strong though, and when you consider Alonso says he's on his best ever form, is looking quite good.

[rjbetty]

ACTUAL Average Qualifying Times after ROUND 9 - SILVERSTONE (Taking the drivers' BEST time in qualifying, meaning sometimes their Q2 time was faster than their Q3 time, so the Q2 time was used).

1.Hamilton
2.Vettel +0.168
3.Rosberg +0.282
4.Grosjean +0.287
5.Schumacher +0.422
6.Webber +0.480
7.Button +0.484
8.Alonso +0.486
9.Maldonado +0.661
10.Raikkonen +0.738
11.Kobayashi +0.753
12.Perez +0.8??
13.Hulkenberg +0.846
14.di Resta +0.985
15.Massa +0.988
16.Ricciardo +1.125
17.Senna +1.256
18.Vergne +1.888
19.Kovalainen +2.629
20.Petrov +2.914
21.Glock +4.454
22.Pic +4.994
23.de la Rosa +5.250
24.Karthikeyan +6.159

This is a bit skewed by the British GP, for which qualifying was wet. This is how Hulkenberg is ahead of di Resta. Webber is artifically lower down because of Valencia where he was 19th, and Silverstone. Though he and Alonso grabbed the front row when it mattered, others had set quicker times in Q1/2. Maybe I should post this with the British GP times taken out...

Also, Perez failed to set a time in Monaco so his time gap isn't so accurate. Glock also didn't take part in Valencia qualifying.

To make things worse, things like Schumacher missing out in Q1 in Bahrain caused his time to be over 2sec slower than Rosberg because the track got quicker as rubber went down over Q2 and 3. Schumacher's true pace was about +0.3 off Rosberg. This also accounts for Vergne being SO far off Ricciardo, as he has often gone out in Q1.

I also want to say Caterham have made a pretty good jump over last year, but it doesn't show because look at the gaps of the drivers in front. Remarkably, all 9 established teams actually must have VERY good cars. There are 7 cars able to win races!

[rjbetty]

SAME TIMES AS ABOVE BUT WITH SILVERSTONE TAKEN OUT

1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.281
3.Vettel +0.334
4.Webber +0.356
5.Grosjean +0.372
6.Button +0.468
7.Schumacher +0.583
8.Alonso +0.662
9.Raikkonen +0.846
10.Maldonado +0.866
11.Kobayashi +0.945
12.Perez +0.978
13.Hulkenberg +1.089
14.di Resta +1.090
15.Massa +1.115
16.Ricciardo +1.287
17.Senna +1.454
18.Vergne +2.090
19.Kovalainen +2.703
20.Petrov +3.079
21.Glock +4.604
22.Pic +4.779
23.de la Rosa +5.243
24.Karthikeyan +5.773

This looks a bit more representative. Hulkenberg is ahead of Paul di Resta on account of Melbourne where Hulkenberg got through to Q3 but Paul hit traffic and didn't set a proper time. In truth, he was on similar pace to Hulk.

Pic is impressively close to Glock, but I wonder if Timo's gotten a bit sloppy again these days, and longingly and regretfully looks at that Lotus seat that he turned down to join Marussia in 2010.

I've omitted Karthikeyan's time in Spain as he didn't set a true time.

Webber was pulled down by his Valencia problems (grid 19th) otherwise he would have at least matched Vettel. I have now omitted this time AND NORMALISED it (whatever that means, but just take it that I haven't simply deducted his +2.309 gap from Valencia).

[A FONDO]

My only true prediction is that the nobodies in Toro Roso will be much worse than Buemi and Alguersuari. Not a big deal because I pay attention to F1 only in the days of quali and race, but I see many people here much more interested in it also confess mistakes, so that shows what a strong thriller F1 2012 is !!!

[rjbetty]

Good point dude. Yeah in retrospect, an Alguersuari/Ricciardo line-up would have made so much sense. And knowing how good Jaime is at bringing in points, the team would be doing so much better, as well as Dan having a benchmark. His experience and the continuity would have been so valuable.

Maybe Jean-Eric Vergne can take over the BBC 5 Live for a while while Jaime drives the car.

Btw how come when I go on Radio 5 Live I am hearing Jonathan Legard's voice again? I've got nothing against the guy, he seems nice and is a far better commentator than I am. The recent developments have given us a chance to hear a direct comparison between these much-maligned speakers. I have to say I MUCH prefer Allen and I actually MISS his voice; there's just something familiar about it for me these days like Murray's used to be! Alright give me a break - I'm not putting him level with Murray - though who knows where he could be by the time he's in his 60s-70s. :) Ok I don't think he's that good cos I've never thought he's a "natural" but he really does seem to have developed into a very decent commentator now.

[F1boat]

Vergne is not good enough, at least not yet and he was quite arrogant, but I am one of the few fans who find nothing special in Alguersuari. I also remember how he rudely dismissed Williams and its pay drivers while moaning about the teams in F1. Now one of this pay drivers have one more win than he'll ever have. Won with the same crappy Williams...

[rjbetty]

Hmmm good point, looks like Sylar may have shot himself in the foot a little. Apparently he's pretty sure of a seat in F1 next year, I wonder where... And who's gonna take over the 5 Live commentary? (I think Massa)