Hollande the Pres of France

[Rudy Tamasz]

Is it good or bad for Europe? I'm slightly confused. His program sure sounds attractive to a lot of people. One thing I don't understand though, is how he's gonna bankroll his social programs, job creation etc.

[odykas]

RIP Merkozy :(

Long live Merkhollande :p :

[F1boat]

I am happy for Hollande and I think that people in Europe, in the local elections in UK and Germany, in Greece with their radical parties, in France with Hollande, they said that your plan can't be austerity only, with no jobs and people committing suicides because of the crisis... people elect governments, not Wallstreet!

[Malbec]

France, among other countries, is in deep debt because of spending much more than they took in. So let's see.....increase your spending and tax the heck out of everything (but still take in less in tax then you spend).....yep, give it a couple of years and it'll fix everything.

Hollande's only real change to Sarkozy's fiscal commitments is that he wants to balance books by 2016 instead of 2015 so I wouldn't expect major changes. He's refused to backtrack on Sarkozy's reforms too. I also think that a rapid cut in spending in one of Europe's biggest economies is going to have a major negative impact on growth throughout the region so not I'm not too bothered that he's going to slow the pace of the cuts by a year or so.

Although I tend to be sceptical of French left-wingers I think Hollande is pragmatic and won't rush into major policy reversals. Where I think he'll be very different from Sarkozy is that I think he'll be far less proactive in major incidents like Libya or the Euro crisis.

Frankly Sarkozy made himself unelectable, not through his economic policies but because of his swerve to the far right on immigration issues and because of his bling-bling personality better suited to a tinpot African dictatorship.

[Mark]

France, among other countries, is in deep debt because of spending much more than they took in. So let's see.....increase your spending and tax the heck out of everything (but still take in less in tax then you spend).....yep, give it a couple of years and it'll fix everything.

The problem is, as is happening in the UK, you cut and cut and put taxes up, you end up killing your own economy, put yourself into recession and and up making the defecit worse, not better.

As ever the correct course is the least exciting one, no drastic cuts, no drastic spending, just being sensible -- unfortunately being sensible isn't 'sexy' and doesn't get you the headlines.

[Rudy Tamasz]

I am happy for Hollande and I think that people in Europe, in the local elections in UK and Germany, in Greece with their radical parties, in France with Hollande, they said that your plan can't be austerity only, with no jobs and people committing suicides because of the crisis... people elect governments, not Wallstreet!

No austerity, fine. Who will foot the bill?

To keep living a high life you have two options. One is the inflationist model where you stimulate growth through consumption. But this is exactly the model that has been in place for the last twenty years or so and brought European economies to the brink of collapse. Using it to fix the economy is like using a shot of heroine to cure a drug addiction. Another option is to tax the heck out of the wealthier. That is, if you catch them before they board their private jets and land for good in numerous tax havens around the world. I honestly don't see economies can become healthier without austerity measures.

[Mark]

Please.... Let's not turn this thread into "WAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAA LIBERALS", not that anybody has any idea what that term even means :rolleyes:

[Mark]

'Liberals' might mean something to Americans, but whatever it is, it's not the same in Europe, so I'd avoid using that term.

[Malbec]

One thing that most liberals and many of everyone else seems to forget, to their eventual regret, is that the one inviolate rule of economics is TANSTAAFL.

It would appear that as a former economist who has vowed to wipe out the deficit Hollande is not one of them, so I'm not sure who your comment refers to.

[Gregor-y]

Did Sarkozy make a fairly naked appeal to FN supporters just before the election? And did Hollande do anything similar? If anything I'm happy to see trying to move to the right (at least in the form as it exists in France) isn't the solution.

[ioan]

Is it good or bad for Europe? I'm slightly confused. His program sure sounds attractive to a lot of people. One thing I don't understand though, is how he's gonna bankroll his social programs, job creation etc.

I suggest we all wish good luck, lots of it to the French people especially to those who voted this guy.

[Rollo]

No austerity, fine. Who will foot the bill?

To keep living a high life you have two options. One is the inflationist model where you stimulate growth through consumption. But this is exactly the model that has been in place for the last twenty years or so and brought European economies to the brink of collapse. Using it to fix the economy is like using a shot of heroine to cure a drug addiction. Another option is to tax the heck out of the wealthier. That is, if you catch them before they board their private jets and land for good in numerous tax havens around the world. I honestly don't see economies can become healthier without austerity measures.

Another option would be to make the taxation system more efficient at doing what it's supposed to.

During the debates on France 2, Hollande said that he'd merge Income Tax and the General Social Contribution. The top rate is to be shifted from 41% to 45% but there's also supposed to be an increase in the exempt threshold. He's also suggested that he intends to abolish the Impôt de Solidarité sur la Fortune (ISF); as I understand it, the ISF is a direct wealth tax on people who hold more than €800K in assets. The idea being to stop the rich leaving the system altogether.
A whole raft of taxation policies and removing the loopholes which exist, are supposed to colletively bring in €29b, which would be more than the money he intends to spend.

I see Hollande as moving France back towards a Chirac style presidency, and you need to remember that Chirac from 2002 was able to achieve net government surpluses and France established a net positive Balance of Payments.

For a "socialist" President, it's odd that Le Figaro maintained a neutral stance about him.

[Big Ben]

Looks to me the french had the classical political choice between the dumb and the dumber... The tricky part is figuring which is which. I hope for the sake of Europe and France most of the things he promised are just the typical socialist bull$h1t that we'll soon be forgotten when facing the reality.

[Malbec]

During the debates on France 2, Hollande said that he'd merge Income Tax and the General Social Contribution. The top rate is to be shifted from 41% to 45% but there's also supposed to be an increase in the exempt threshold. He's also suggested that he intends to abolish the Impôt de Solidarité sur la Fortune (ISF); as I understand it, the ISF is a direct wealth tax on people who hold more than €800K in assets. The idea being to stop the rich leaving the system altogether.
A whole raft of taxation policies and removing the loopholes which exist, are supposed to colletively bring in €29b, which would be more than the money he intends to spend.


Interesting stuff. Would be good if he delivered on it. The asset tax was a ridiculous idea that guaranteed that high value items would be exported out of the country, I'm glad thats gone.

[Roamy]

When I tour the Muslim wineries is South France will my girlfriend have to wear a Burka??

[Dave B]

When I tour the Muslim wineries is South France will my girlfriend have to wear a Burka??
Just let the air out of her and stuff her in your rucksack.

[driveace]

How long will the Euro survive now? Or can it really survive another 5 years ?I see many country,s going back to their own currencies before long !

[Rudy Tamasz]

Another option would be to make the taxation system more efficient at doing what it's supposed to.

During the debates on France 2, Hollande said that he'd merge Income Tax and the General Social Contribution. The top rate is to be shifted from 41% to 45% but there's also supposed to be an increase in the exempt threshold. He's also suggested that he intends to abolish the Impôt de Solidarité sur la Fortune (ISF); as I understand it, the ISF is a direct wealth tax on people who hold more than €800K in assets. The idea being to stop the rich leaving the system altogether.
A whole raft of taxation policies and removing the loopholes which exist, are supposed to colletively bring in €29b, which would be more than the money he intends to spend.

I see Hollande as moving France back towards a Chirac style presidency, and you need to remember that Chirac from 2002 was able to achieve net government surpluses and France established a net positive Balance of Payments.

For a "socialist" President, it's odd that Le Figaro maintained a neutral stance about him.

Might be a reasonable strategy.

[ioan]

How long will the Euro survive now? Or can it really survive another 5 years ?I see many country,s going back to their own currencies before long !

How does that impact your life?

I suggest we all wish good luck, lots of it to the French people especially to those who voted this guy.
Yes, I love Hollande!

[Dave B]

How does that impact your life?
Do you suppose that if a major currency collapses it wouldn't have ramifications beyond Europe's borders?

[Big Ben]

IMO people are talking too easy about the 'the imminent death of the euro'. You'd get the impression it can happen just like that. Tomorrow people will just go to the bank and change their euros for marks, francs, shillings etc... and euro's gone.

[ioan]

IMO people are talking too easy about the 'the imminent death of the euro'.

Yep, it's just wishful thinking.

[Rollo]

IMO people are talking too easy about the 'the imminent death of the euro'. You'd get the impression it can happen just like that. Tomorrow people will just go to the bank and change their euros for marks, francs, shillings etc... and euro's gone.

That's just the thing isn't it? With modern electronic Real-Time-Gross-Settlement markets software, in theory you could be trading French Francs, German Deutsche Mark, Austrian Schillings, Italian Lira, or even Syldavian Khôr, along side the Euro even though no physical currency exists. Heck the Euro itself was traded for three years before the general public ever got to hold one.

[Mark]

I think if any country were to leave the Euro they wouldn't go back to their previous currency. They'd more likely create a new one, with Euros being exchanged 1=1 for the new currency, so there would be no need for mass re-pricing. They'd likely change the bank notes, but not the coins - as changing all the vending machines would be too costly.

[Garry Walker]

I suggest we all wish good luck, lots of it to the French people especially to those who voted this guy.

They are going to need it, but they deserve what they get for voting for this left-wing loon.

[edv]

http://i.imgur.com/jYTl7.jpg

[Rollo]

They are going to need it, but they deserve what they get for voting for this left-wing loon.

So called "left-wing loons" have left France with a train system in which some trains are capable of doing 500km/h, a motorway network of which the quality of roads is better than the UK or the US, a public health system which provides relatively open access and reasonably low costs and three largish viable car brands.

On the other hand, the right-wing sensible governments in the UK have had MPs rort the system for private expenses and a inquiry which may or may not suggest that the government was passing on information to private media outlets.

[BDunnell]

I think if any country were to leave the Euro they wouldn't go back to their previous currency. They'd more likely create a new one, with Euros being exchanged 1=1 for the new currency, so there would be no need for mass re-pricing. They'd likely change the bank notes, but not the coins - as changing all the vending machines would be too costly.

Exactly. And I would suspect that 'Euro' would in some way be part of the name in most cases, eg the 'Greek Euro' or something.

[Malbec]

Exactly. And I would suspect that 'Euro' would in some way be part of the name in most cases, eg the 'Greek Euro' or something.

I think that would depend on the circumstances.

If Greece has an orderly withdrawal from the Euro, given the strength of feeling there towards the whole episode they may want as little reference to the Euro as possible even though their currency will probably be pegged to it for some time.

Worst case scenario is that the markets lose confidence entirely in the Euro, its value drops by more than 20% or so resulting in massive inflation across the Eurozone and an economic collapse. In that case I can see countries either rushing or being forced to leave very quickly. If that happens I have no idea how the new currencies will be established.

[Rollo]

but not the coins - as changing all the vending machines would be too costly.

The 50p, 10p and 5p are all on smaller planchets than when they started out. The UK changed the sizes of those coins without ever adopting the Euro.

[Gregor-y]

I always thought the corresponding Irish coins were so much more massive because of an inferiority complex. I worked in Dublin for a while just before the Euro switch and had to travel north and to Scotland a few times.

No doubt its good for Europe but it should be legal and through proper channel.I really appreciate all these programs as know the world has become a global village and the border should be open.