The Labor Party Spill, The Caucus Meeting and who gets to be PM

[Rollo]

I envisage several things which might result from the events of the Labor Party caucus meeting next Monday.

1 - Julia Gillard is returned as the leader of the party, retains her job as Prime Minister. Everything continues as normal.

2 - Julia Gillard is returned as the leader of the party; retains her job as Prime Minister. A vote of no confidence is tabled before the house and the government loses the support of the Independents and the Green. This results in:
2a: The calling of a General Election.
2b: The formation of a new Liberal government provided that they can secure the support of the Independents and the Green with respect to supply bills.

3 - Kevin Rudd regains the job as the leader of the party and becomes Prime Minister. Everything continues as normal.

4 - Kevin Rudd regains the job as the leader of the party and becomes Prime Minister. A vote of no confidence is tabled before the house and the government loses the support of the Independents and the Green. See 2a and 2b.

The real problem that I have with either 2a or 2b is that Tony Abbott as the leader of Liberal Party in the House of Representatives would become the next Prime Minister. Tony Abbott to me seems as directionless a leader as Julia Gillard, whereas at least you could say of Kevin Rudd was that his government did have a series of plans even if they might have been beaten down. The other problem is that an Abbott government would have either Joe Hockey or Julia Bishop as Treasurer. Hockey has the personality to be the PM and given that the role is of minister without portfolio, he can't exactly damage it but having said that his ability to hold numbers is lacking. Bishop on the other hand as Shadow Treasurer has in the past, actually lied about the numbers she was presenting.

Rob Oakeshott told ABC Radio National's RN Breakfast show this morning that if the Government falls over he would approach Turnbull to lead and be the next PM. Clearly Rob Oakeshott and possibly the other Independents are the only sane people in the building. A Turnbull Liberal Government would be sensible but ultimately the end of the NBN.

[EuroTroll]

That's quite interesting! For those of us not so familiar with Aussie politics: why did Rudd's previous government actually fall? And: which of the four options would you prefer to happen?

[Rollo]

That's quite interesting! For those of us not so familiar with Aussie politics: why did Rudd's previous government actually fall? And: which of the four options would you prefer to happen?

Being a Westminster Parliament, Government in Australia is formed from a majority of sitting members in the lower house. In June of 2010, Rudd lost the support of those members and the Labor Party chose Gillard as its new leader. This is no different. Rudd is hoping on Monday to secure the support of the Labor Party caucus and thus be installed as the new PM.

I don't know if I like Gillard as PM. Her Government is directionless but because she's head of a government in a hung parliament and the government is only there on agreement of a Green and a few Independents, it's expected.
Rudd was an adequate PM and I think that Abbott would be a disaster.

I'd like a General Election to be called because at least then there'd be certainty... maybe.

[Mark]

Such is the way with hung parliaments and it looks like Labor is doing their best to ensure they don't get reelected. Sounds familiar.

Is there no mechanism for the opposition to bring forward a motion of no confidence to force a general election?

[Rollo]

Is there no mechanism for the opposition to bring forward a motion of no confidence to force a general election?

Sure:

A vote of no confidence is tabled before the house and the government loses the support of the Independents and the Green. This results in:
2a: The calling of a General Election.

A vote of no confidence would need to be passed by the house. There are 150 members in the House of Representatives (the exact equivalent of the House of Commons), and a majority of 76 votes would be required to make it pass.
Currently the Liberal Party has 71 (-1 as the speaker) seats and the support of two Crossbenchers. They'd need to swing three of the four current Crossbenchers siding with the Government. Labor holds 72 seats and has the support of the one Green and four Independents.

[driveace]

But consensus here in OZ is that Rudd will not have enough support.When he was PM ,no one could get hold of him as he was always with his small group of friends,behind closed doors,and had NO clear direction.His wife is a multi millionaire so why does he need it.She had to sell her last business for her role as First lady last time,and now she is running another sucessful company,if he becomes PM again,then she will have to sell this company.Every body who has worked under Kevin in Government departments ,say he is a very stubborn ,difficult man to get on with.

[Rollo]

Just Breaking:

Gillard 73 - Rudd 29.

Gillard wins the poisoned challice and will lead the party to defeat at the next election.

The suggestion is now that a Vote of No Confidence be tabled before the House later today. The next election if that vote is passed would be in mid-April.

[driveace]

And a member resigns too .The Deputy finance minister ,has had enough,and says he needs to spend more time with his family.

[raybak]

I feel an election in the air :)

Word around town here in Canberra that there will be an election very soon.

Knowing our government they will not check the rally calendar before setting the date :(

Ray

[Mark]

At least in the UK it's typical for troubled governments to hang on until the last possible moment. That is until Cameron decided this would be the normal practice.

[Rollo]

I feel an election in the air :)

Word around town here in Canberra that there will be an election very soon.

Knowing our government they will not check the rally calendar before setting the date :(


You really think so? I personally think that the next election will be held on Dec 14, 2013 which is the last possible day. This is why:

Abbott says no new start for Labor (http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-says-no-new-start-for-labor-20120227-1txze.html)
Mr Abbott renewed his call for an early federal election.
"The clear answer from today is that the only way we can get real change is with an election," he said.
"The prime minister should be chosen by the people - not the faceless men."
Asked if he would move a no confidence motion against the government, Mr Abbott remained uncommitted.
"I have no confidence in this prime minister," he replied.
- Sydney Morning Herald, 27th Feb 2012

I think Abbott if he was really serious about forcing an election, should have called for a censure motion. The fact that he didn't means that although he personally has "no confidence in this prime minister", I suspect that he can't get sufficient people to cross the floor with him in his lack of confidence.

Why?

At the moment we have a fracturous parliament; I don't think Gillard will call and election because several Labour Party members are sitting on a knifeedge and due to reasons of self-preservation, I don't think she'd risk losing even one of them.

Other than that, nobody holds any election triggers and there hasn't even been a loss of supply either.