Musings on points needed

[fandango]

With three races to go at the start of this thread, I was absentmindedly thinking of the points predictions and expectations for the top three drivers, and how Alonso has stated that three podium finishes should be enough. I say the top three because it really looks now that both McLaren drivers can only hope for serious mishaps for their rivals, and so are basically out of the hunt.

Ok, ok, anything can happen, but anyway, here's what I was thinking:

Webber is doing well as his lead is getting bigger. With 220 points over 16 races, his average haul has been 13.75 points per race. Using this as a very rough guide, his total score at the end will likely be 13.75 x 3 plus 220, which gives us 261.25 points. Let's round that down to 261.

So both Alonso and Vettel have to get 56 points over the next three races to beat that, which is an average of 18.66 points per race.

25 + 18 + 15 = 58 points for a win, a second and a third.
18 x 3 = 54
A win and two thirds, 25 + 15 + 15 = 55, maybe not quite enough.

So, Webber could conceivably be champion with three third places, provided he's not beaten by the same people in each race. Anything better than that, which is very possible, puts him in an even stronger position. Alonso and Vettel need to win at least one more race, I think.

It could be that a strong race by McLaren, a 1-2, could be what decides it. Or a strong race by Massa or Kubica.

As you can see I'm not too busy today, so feel free to speculate on all this.

(And yes, it's only speculation, and we'll wait and see what happens. But while we're waiting...)

[Arjuna]

Title might be decided in the last round. There are also dependency on different drivers. If not mistaken, Kimi was in the 3rd before last race of 2007 that finally emerged from title contenders and won, Despite Massa won in the last race title fight between him and Hamilton in 2008 were determined by Glock who was passed by Hamilton in the last corner.

But alright we can make speculation, Webber has 14 points ahead of his rivals which mean great benefit if he can maintain the pace he can win the title. The top three contenders from 16 races held, Webber won 4 times, Alonso 4, Vettel 3. The trendline taken from last 10 races, Alonso won 3, Webber 2, Vettel 1. Alonso had positive trendline.

At the moment, general condition this season, Redbull are in good form. They are good conveyance for their drivers to win the title. This is good benefit for Webber and Vettel. From engine pace Redbull drivers has the upperhand, and hence Redbull drivers especially Webber has bigger probability than rivals.

Ferrari struggles at some races, we can conclude they are not in form this season by evidence that Massa is nowhere in the standing. But Alonso looked like that he has an ace in his sleve, and it would be a great surprise if he wins, I want to say they challenge the title more by strength of Alonso, well deserved champ, he is in all way faster than his teammate, except probably GP Germany :)

[Big Ben]

Title might be decided in the last round. There are also dependency on different drivers. If not mistaken, Kimi was in the 3rd before last race of 2007 that finally emerged from title contenders and won, Despite Massa won in the last race title fight between him and Hamilton in 2008 were determined by Glock who was passed by Hamilton in the last corner.

But alright we can make speculation, Webber has 14 points ahead of his rivals which mean great benefit if he can maintain the pace he can win the title. The top three contenders from 16 races held, Webber won 4 times, Alonso 4, Vettel 3. The trendline taken from last 10 races, Alonso won 3, Webber 2, Vettel 1. Alonso had positive trendline.

At the moment, general condition this season, Redbull are in good form. They are good conveyance for their drivers to win the title. This is good benefit for Webber and Vettel. From engine pace Redbull drivers has the upperhand, and hence Redbull drivers especially Webber has bigger probability than rivals.

Ferrari struggles at some races, we can conclude they are not in form this season by evidence that Massa is nowhere in the standing. But Alonso looked like that he has an ace in his sleve, and it would be a great surprise if he wins, I want to say they challenge the title more by strength of Alonso, well deserved champ, he is in all way faster than his teammate, except probably GP Germany :)

He was faster there too... Massa got in p1 by chance. There was not a single race where Massa gave the impression to be doing a better job than FA.

Figures give the impression MW has a relatively easy job ahead of him. But then we have the 2007 season where LH had a much bigger advantage with only 2 races left and still lost it.

[Tazio]

Red Bull has done a fantastic job this year. The produced a championship caliber car. Mark has shown incredible consistency, and maturity. In many ways the same way Button did last year. (Although the car wasn't as dominant in the early stages of the season) If he does beat his younger, arguably faster (in terms of raw speed) whose expectations (and I think the teams) was to beat MW it will be quite an accomplishment. I agree with Fandango other drivers will come into play. Although I don't believe The Boss or Button thinks they are out of this race, and with their upgrades can finish ahead of the other pilots in an event or two. Using the old scoring system Mark would be about 7 points clear. That is an advantage, but not what I would call money in the bank with three races left. I think Vettel is the most likely suspect to overtake him if he is to be overtaken, and then Fred, and I'm not counting The Boss or Button out of this yet. The chasers need to beat Webber for any chance (obviously) and then hope to get a non championship contender to finish ahead of Mark I'm thinking specifically Kubinski and Massa (if he will stop driving like a tomato can).
I hope it goes down to the last race.

[F1boat]

Vettel IMO can win all three races and the championship. I am not a fan of him, but if Red Bull dominates, he is more likely to win. If times are tough, Mark is more likely to win. But Alonso remains a dark horse for the WDC IMO.
The Red Bull has all but won the WCC.

[fandango]

I just don't see Vettel winning three races on the trot like that. Or anyone, for that matter.

[maximilian]

DNFs will be the key, and make all the difference. I think Webber has to win at least one more race to ultimately clinch the title unless Vettel and/or Alonso suffer a DNF in any of the races.

[Sonic]

I just don't see Vettel winning three races on the trot like that. Or anyone, for that matter.

Well it certainly hasn't been the run of things so far this year but who knows. Looking at the tracks to come I wouod guess Korea will not favour the Bulls thanks to the epicly long straights, but I wouldn't bet against a Vettel win in either Brazil or Abu, so that really does suggest Mark needs another win and podiums in the other two races to be certain of the championship.

I do have a preference for the title but quite frankly whoever gets the nod will have won an awesome season.

[ioan]

He was faster there too...

Sure, because Ferrari ordered Massa to turn down the engine revs. Otherwise Alonso was nowhere. :D

Anyway back to the topic of the thread.
Any of Vettel and Santander need at least 2 wins and a second if Webber doesn't win any of the remaining races but has strong drives (2 x 2nd and once 3rd).
If Webber makes a costly mistake everything will become a bit more relaxed, however right now it is very very tight.

[UltimateDanGTR]

Fernando has been on fire.

Seb has proved himself to be back in the game recently too.

Mark has been calm and collected and as a result has got some good if not spectacular points of late.

Lewis has lost his head a little recently and suffered some bad luck, but his head seemed to be in the right place in suzuka.

Jenson has been quiet and collected a few points, but hasn't had the car underneath him to challenge the red bulls or ferraris.

My thoughts from this: Fred and Seb have the momentum, Webber the calmness. All have the capable cars. All are in with a major chance for the world championship. The Mclarens dont have the momentum or the speed for me. I think they are realistically out of it, even if they are not mathematically.

I predict a three way title showdown in Abu Dhabi, and although irrelevant in this thread I'll be supporting the Australian corner.

[Arjuna]

Sure, because Ferrari ordered Massa to turn down the engine revs. Otherwise Alonso was nowhere. :D

Ferrari only said whether Massa can confirm that Alonso was faster. :)

The Red Bulls are very fast at this moment, unless Alonso can start from front row and keep Vettel/Webber at a distance behind him or he has selective choice of tire compound and come in for tire change at correct time, I doubt Alonso can overtake the Red Bulls in normal condition. Vettel has strong self adjustment too, in any track totally new it might favor him also.
Alonso can stay closely behind them, in case the two Red Bull fight one another, he can take benefit and walk off with the victory. But this isn't a good fashion, he must sart from pole or come out as the first at first corner.

[Retro Formula 1]

Hamilton has been unlucky in 3 races now and consequently has nothing to lose. I expect some banzi runs for the remainder.

[jens]

Suzuka was Red Bull's strongest circuit in the last quarter of the season and finally after a long time they got their compulsory 1-2. It was an absolute must for Vettel to win the Japanese GP to stay in the title fight. Also that box was ticked.

Imagine if Webber indeed had suffered a puncture in Singapore, then the Top3 would be within a single point in WDC! Will those 5 mm's really bring Mark the WDC? Can he really keep accumulating consistently good results until the end of the season?

Interesting that despite beating Webber for the last three races in a row, Vettel has been finding it hard to significantly close the gap on Webber in points. And the gap is still bigger than before the Belgian Grand Prix - one race before that 3-race attack by Seb. Probably this fact highlights that the fate of the WDC will be determined by the amount of cock-ups in the end.

Alonso is in a strong position. Suzuka was Ferrari's weakest circuit among the last six in the calendar and he is ready to attack. On paper he looks the least likely driver to have a cock-up in such decisive phase of the season, although Fuji'07 showed that he may not be indestructible either.

I suspect McLarens may well be pretty much out of the title fight now. If they had the fastest car, they could still save something, but with merely a third fastest car it is probably going to be a long shot.

[fandango]

I expect that McLaren will throw in the towel on development for this year if they don't win convincingly in Korea, but both Vettel and Alonso really need to win one more, so we may see some wheel banging.

[Sonic]

I expect that McLaren will throw in the towel on development for this year if they don't win convincingly in Korea, but both Vettel and Alonso really need to win one more, so we may see some wheel banging.

I agree with regards McLaren. They MUST win in Korea - preferably a one-two - without that they risk being, if not mathematically out of the equation, but at least realistically.

[Tazio]

Some wise-guy came up with this scenario on:
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2010/10/19/f1-fanatic-round-up-19102010/
BTW I'm not endorsing it ;)

But I think StD pinche would! :bandit: :laugh:


OK here we go. Let’s imagine that the top five in the championship all finish the last three races in the top 5 positions:

Korea: 1st. BUT 2nd. ALO 3rd. HAM 4th. VET 5th. WEB

Brazil: 1st. HAM 2nd. VET 3rd. ALO 4th. BUT 5th. WEB

Abu Dhabi: 1st. BUT 2nd. HAM 3rd. VET 4th. ALO 5th. WEB

Therefore the championship after Abu Dhabi would be:

ALO 251 (1st)
VET 251
BUT 251
WEB 250
HAM 250 (5th)
:s ailor:

[fandango]

Some wise-guy came up with this scenario on:
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2010/10/19/f1-fanatic-round-up-19102010/
BTW I'm not endorsing it ;)

But I think StD pinche would! :bandit: :laugh:

:s ailor:

Now that would be funny, but I think only Banc Santander buying Red Bull would produce anything like that.

I can't see Webber getting three fifth places, but just one DNF might lose him the championship.

[Hawkmoon]

I think you have to look at it in terms of what each of the trailing drivers needs to do in order to overtake Webber:

Button - needs to take more than 10 points per race out of Webber. Highly unlike considering the points structure. The Brit needs the Aussie to DNF as the McLaren is unlikely to be quicker than the Red Bull in any of the remaining races.

Hamilton - pretty much the same as Button with Hamilton needing to take over 9 points out of Webber in each of the remaining races. Needs a lot of help to win the championship.

Alonso/Vettel - they need to take 5 points out of Webber each race which is much more likely considering the points structure and the relative pace of the Ferrari and Red Bull.

I think Vettel is the slight favourite as he has the momentum and the car. Webber is next up because of his points lead with Alonso the outsider. The Spaniard will probably have to win at least 2 more races to take the title unless Red Bull run into problems. The Ferrari probably won't be quick enough to beat the Red Bull outright so Alonso is going to need some luck.

[Duchess]

Some wise-guy came up with this scenario on:
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2010/10/19/f1-fanatic-round-up-19102010/
BTW I'm not endorsing it ;)

But I think StD pinche would! :bandit: :laugh:

:s ailor:

If this actually happened (it's a very big IF but it is possible) I would almost certainly keel over in shock, awe, and nervousness! I'm going to be haunted by that scenario now... :s hock:

[Tazio]

I'm going to be haunted by that scenario now... :s hock:

:s ailor: Scary Movie :eek:

[NastyCar]

Some wise-guy came up with this scenario on: hid headlights (http://electronicfiend.com/hid-kits/)http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2010/10/19/f1-fanatic-round-up-19102010/
BTW I'm not endorsing it ;)

But I think StD pinche would! :bandit: :laugh:

:s ailor:


Haha nice.

[Garry Walker]

Some wise-guy came up with this scenario on:
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2010/10/19/f1-fanatic-round-up-19102010/
BTW I'm not endorsing it ;)

But I think StD pinche would! :bandit: :laugh:

:s ailor:

Seems some people have absolutely nothing to do at all. Probably a government worker doing some of his oh so busy work!

[AndyL]

Seems some people have absolutely nothing to do at all. Probably a government worker doing some of his oh so busy work!

Glad to see you weren't too busy yourself to find time to comment on it ;)

[Mia 01]

If not the top runners dfn tomorow Hamlo0n is now out

[Ranger]

After Korea:

1. Alonso 231
2. Webber 220 ( - 11)
3. Hamilton 210 (- 21)
4. Vettel 206 ( - 25)
5. Button 189 ( - 42)

Anything can still happen as seen today!

[F1boat]

After Korea:

1. Alonso 231
2. Webber 220 ( - 11)
3. Hamilton 210 (- 21)
4. Vettel 206 ( - 25)
5. Button 189 ( - 42)

Anything can still happen as seen today!

Of course, but for Jenson it will be very difficult.

[fandango]

So now they're saying on Spanish Tv that Alonso could, mathematically, be champion in Brazil if he wins and Webber is lower than fifth or fourth or something.

[F1boat]

True, but still this means nothing. Everything is possible. Ferrari has problems with engines. Everything can change. But yes, it is looking good for him!

[fandango]

I think the championship is now between Alonso and Webber, and Red Bull should swallow their pride, take Vettel to one side and tell him the bad news. He'll have plenty of other years to try again.

Obviously, Hamilton is still in there, but you would expect Button to support him now.

[555-04Q2]

I think the championship is now between Alonso and Webber, and Red Bull should swallow their pride, take Vettel to one side and tell him the bad news. He'll have plenty of other years to try again.

Obviously, Hamilton is still in there, but you would expect Button to support him now.

I fully agree with you. Its Alonso vs Webber now.

[truefan72]

I think the championship is now between Alonso and Webber, and Red Bull should swallow their pride, take Vettel to one side and tell him the bad news. He'll have plenty of other years to try again.

Obviously, Hamilton is still in there, but you would expect Button to support him now.

I think it is a 3 way battles and will come down to the last race.
Man, Interlagos will be some race. too many variables. Thank God we don't have that medals system.

[ShiftingGears]

Man, Interlagos will be some race.

It always is. :up:

[Ranger]

I think the championship is now between Alonso and Webber, and Red Bull should swallow their pride, take Vettel to one side and tell him the bad news. He'll have plenty of other years to try again.

Obviously, Hamilton is still in there, but you would expect Button to support him now.


I fully agree with you. Its Alonso vs Webber now.

Not according to Horner.

Which is fair enough. But Alonso only needs a third and fourth place finish in the two remaining rounds to beat Vettel, regardless of whether Vettel wins both remaining races.

Food for thought.

[Dave B]

Not according to Horner.
I notice that both Red Bull and McLaren management and drivers were very careful not to say anything on TV that could later be used as evidence that they were using team orders ;)

There'll be conversations behind closed doors between now and Brazil, mark my words.

[Ent]

I think Red Bull should wait and see what happens in Brazil before fully backing Webber. If Alonso goes off the track early and DNFs, Vettel is right back in the fight. If Vettel and Webber are together on track and Alonso looks like finishing in the top 3 or 4, they'd have to seriously think about making sure Webber is in front of Vettel.

Can't rule out Hamilton yet, either, though he'd need a bit of luck (like he had today).

[Ranger]

I notice that both Red Bull and McLaren management and drivers were very careful not to say anything on TV that could later be used as evidence that they were using team orders ;)

There'll be conversations behind closed doors between now and Brazil, mark my words.

Especially in Red Bull's case, beyond Horner's comments I am still skeptical...

[555-04Q2]

Not according to Horner.

Which is fair enough. But Alonso only needs a third and fourth place finish in the two remaining rounds to beat Vettel, regardless of whether Vettel wins both remaining races.

Food for thought.

I don't care if Elvis appears at the Brazillian GP. Unless Alonso or Webber have a DNF at Brazil, one of them will be WDC.

And yes, team orders will play a part in the last two races, even though people will deny this because only some cheat, the rest don't :laugh:

[donKey jote]

Thank God we don't have that medals system.
hehe ;) :D

[jens]

I have to admit that for me the excitement of the championship is gone now. It is so one-sided that it is almost ridiculous. The Ferrari/Alonso combo works inch-perfectly like a surgeon, while the rest of the rivals are just complete chokers. When Webber was WDC-leader, excitement was always in the air - can he really keep it up, surely he won't keep going troublefree until the end, etc. But with Alonso in front things are clear.

Simply astonishing. After mid-season Alonso was firmly out of the WDC-fight, but the competitors have been doing their ultimate best to collectively hand the title to him on a silver platter. And it's not just about the drivers. RBR and it's reliability and team management. McLaren's car development has got completely stuck somewhere since mid-season and their reliability could have been better too (for instance Alonso has suffered a car failure only for once and even that from P9).

Alonso will deserve the title, sure. But this is just frustrating to watch the competition giving up without even a fight. And this is supposed to be the pinnacle of motorsports.

Vettel's engine failure was reminiscent of Schumacher in Japan '06. After playing catch-up all season a comeback and even a title seemed suddenly a realistic outlook, when suddenly all the hopes go bang up in smoke. :(

[Koz]

So here we are.
11 points after 17 races. And 5 guys with a chance. Not bad at all.

Alonso leads Webber by 21, one more race win will NOT secure him the gold. He leads the points and most importantly he leads the team. A win and a podium [271] is required.

Webber is less than a race win away from Alonso, he needs a win. Two wins [270] are required to guarantee the c'ship, regardless where anyone else finishes.

Hamilton and Vettel are still in it with outside chances that rely almost solely on misfortunes of Alonso and Webber.

Button has no hope, time to play no2. Vettel probably won't be no.2 for another race it, and I think he will have a large part to play in this year's story.


RBR have the fastest car and as long as Mark can get on pole...

Thoughts?

[CNR]

Alonso leads Webber by 21 X
Alonso leads Webber by 11
all itwould take is for mark to win the next race and alono come 4th and mark is back in the lead

[Minke]

So here we are.
11 points after 17 races. And 5 guys with a chance. Not bad at all.

Alonso leads Webber by 21, one more race win will NOT secure him the gold. He leads the points and most importantly he leads the team. A win and a podium [271] is required.

Webber is less than a race win away from Alonso, he needs a win. Two wins [270] are required to guarantee the c'ship, regardless where anyone else finishes.

Hamilton and Vettel are still in it with outside chances that rely almost solely on misfortunes of Alonso and Webber.

Button has no hope, time to play no2. Vettel probably won't be no.2 for another race it, and I think he will have a large part to play in this year's story.


RBR have the fastest car and as long as Mark can get on pole...

Thoughts?

I cannot find the information anywhere but Alonso is on his 8th and final engine and it is already 2 (or 3?) races old...

How many has Mark got left?

[Hawkmoon]

I cannot find the information anywhere but Alonso is on his 8th and final engine and it is already 2 (or 3?) races old...

How many has Mark got left?

Doesn't really matter. They can use any of the 8 engines, it's not like once they go to a new engine they can't reuse an old one.

They'll just pick the engines that are in the best nick in terms of mileage and wear and stick those in.

I think the real question is whether Christian "We will NEVER use team orders" Horner sticks to his word. He was depserate to get Ferrari disqualified in Germany and now he faces a situation were he could either go back on his word to win the championship or stick to it and lose.

The maths suggest that Vettel should support Webber in the last two races as Webber is much closer to Alonso. Try this one on for size:

Vettel wins both remaining races with Webber in 2nd both times. All Alonso has to do is finish 3rd and he takes the title. Both Red Bull drivers end up losing the title by 5 points.

Webber has a much less daunting task. He just needs Vettel to move over once and the title is his.

What do you do, Mr Horner, what do you do?

[F1boat]

I have the strange feeling that what happened yesterday can be good for Mark Webber, because Vettel retired. Now he still has advantage over him in the intra-team battle, but being behind Alonso he may no longer tremble over his lead and will just be himself - a courageous, fast driver with one chance for eternal glory and nothing to lose.

[F1boat]

As a Ferrari and Alonso fan I can only wish that I shared your confidence in the Spaniard. There is still the engine situation, the unknown factors in Brazil and of course the sheer pace of RBR. It's still far from over.

[Arjuna]

More precisely, being both DNF yesterday gave more disadvantages on Vettel instead of Webber. In the next last two rounds Alonso can stay behind them being the third, but winning last rounds wouldn't give enough points for Vettel to win the title. Whilst one win and one second would be enough for the win on Mark.

I agree Red Bull are very fast at the moment, the next two round results have strong dependency on intra team decision how to manage the races left that are beneficial for team.

However it's only a math there are more external factors such as how drivers manage pressure, dark horse Hamilton that has nothing to lose and may take benefit from being excluded from title contenders (he is a serious contender though), car reliability factor, and luck and unluckiness factor. How handle pressures perhaps Alonso plays dominant role.

arjun

[Arjuna]

Simply astonishing. After mid-season Alonso was firmly out of the WDC-fight, but the competitors have been doing their ultimate best to collectively hand the title to him on a silver platter.
perhaps, it's about mentality. I believe at that time he had smallest voters :)

[Donney]

According to La Sexta Alonso will win the championship in Brazil if he wins and Webber is 5th or worst. Nice scenario, for me at least, but I don't see it happening. I bet Alonso is aiming of podiums right now and let the final result develop.

[AndyL]

I cannot find the information anywhere but Alonso is on his 8th and final engine and it is already 2 (or 3?) races old...

How many has Mark got left?

Here (click on the engine cycle tab):
http://www.vivaf1.com/engine.php

Assuming all the engines from the second half of the season are still usable (apart from the ones we know were changed during a race weekend), all the top runners are in similar positions. All will have engines on their 2nd or 3rd race for the last two rounds.

Rubens and the two Renaults have fresh engines for Brazil - go Rubens :)

[fandango]

With two races to go, the permutations get interesting:

Only Alonso and Webber can win the championship without it depending on the misfortune of others. By that I mean that if either of them wins both remaining races then the WDC is theirs no matter what the other drivers do.

However, it's unlikely Ferrari have the car to beat the Red Bulls on pace like that, and as Red Bull are insisting that they will let their drivers race it's also unlikely that Webber will suddenly find the speed to beat Vettel for two races like that either.

Based on recent form, and putting reliability issues to one side, a podium of Vettel, Webber, Alonso in that order is a very real possibility, just as we saw in Japan. But if both races go that way, then Alonso will be champion on 261, with Vettel second on equal points with Webber at 256.

If that were the impending scenario, would we see Vettel move over during the race in Abu Dabi to give the win to Webber in the closing laps of the championship? It would give Webber 263, which would make him WDC, but it would make for perhaps a tense time in Red Bull from then on, and it'd be even worse if Vettel refused to move over.

So in a way, what Vettel really needs is the McLarens to take points off his rivals, to avoid such a difficult decision.

[52Paddy]

Here (click on the engine cycle tab):
http://www.vivaf1.com/engine.php

Assuming all the engines from the second half of the season are still usable (apart from the ones we know were changed during a race weekend), all the top runners are in similar positions. All will have engines on their 2nd or 3rd race for the last two rounds.

Rubens and the two Renaults have fresh engines for Brazil - go Rubens :)

Thanks for the helpful link :up: Well done to Rubens, the Renaults and the HRTs for keeping themselves a fresh engine this late in the year.

In regard to the title, Alonso is in the most comfortable position but, I personally believe Webber would be in a stronger position if RBR decide to put him as No. 1 driver on the priorities. Depending on the likelihood of that scenario will pretty much decide the championship.

[Big Ben]

I cannot find the information anywhere but Alonso is on his 8th and final engine and it is already 2 (or 3?) races old...

How many has Mark got left?

What´s the deal with gornnuts? is it a gorn or is it a nut? now seriously what´s the deal with the ferrari engines... we have yet another race where an RBR goes boom, this time the fresh and juicy renault engine and people keep singing about the italian engine. Of all main contenders I'm under the impression that the reds have perhaps the most reliable car... I think it's wishful thinking in the end. If both ferrari cars explode in the 2 races left they still might have a better record than RBR

[Tazio]

The engine situation is precisely why The Boss is very much in the fight. Early retiements have left him in good shape in that respect.
Do not count him out :eek:

:s ailor: Avanti !!

[Tazio]

After Interlagos it's all going to be up to Paul the octopus! :s mokin:

[Big Ben]

I think that if RBR backs Webber for the final 2 races Webber had most chances to grab the title. They have the car to get 2 1-2s if they don't blow up. Maybe I shouldn't have written that here... they don't seem capable to figure it out by themselves.

[Arjuna]

It's likely if Alonso Ferrari win, they can grab more wins in the next season in relative easier fashion. It would prove people's doubt wrong that he would never win any titles anymore...
A great regret if they, either Vettel or Mark can't win after their strong lead. The common rule, to finish first first you must finish, before deciding who will back up whom, they must tell drivers not to do too much over revving. :)

[Dave B]

After Interlagos it's all going to be up to Paul the octopus! :s mokin:
Not necessarily...



Paul the World Cup 'psychic' octopus who shot to fame after correctly predicting the outcome of games has died, says his aquarium in Germany
4 minutes ago via SkyNews Alerts

:eek:

[Tazio]

Not necessarily...

Paul the World Cup 'psychic' octopus who shot to fame after correctly predicting the outcome of games has died, says his aquarium in Germany


:eek:

RIP Paul :(

[SilverArrows]

This championship really has been totally at the command of Red Bull. They've had the best car all season and it should be wrapped up by now. It reminds me of the frustration of 2009 where you find yourself saying 'just get the job done will you?' A dominant car which has suffered from mechanical failures and the guidance of two drivers inexperienced in this type of pressure.

If Alonso wins the WDC, Red Bull are going to look extremely embarrassed as far as I am concerned. That doesn't take anything away from Fernando either. The guy has chased down the Red Bulls since mid season and picked up where their mistakes have let them down. If Alonso happens to win the WDC, its well deserved IMO. I'd still like to see Mark become the WDC though, but with two rounds left its a question of pressure management. :)

I agree with this. This season is sort of like 2007 where a McLaren driver really should've won the championship but Kimi did what he had to do and pinched it at the last minute.

Personally I think it's fantastic it's still this close with only 2 races to go, anything can still happen. I think Massa could be the joker in Brazil as he always does well in Sao Paulo. If he gets on the podium then it could make things very interesting.

[52Paddy]

I think Massa could be the joker in Brazil as he always does well in Sao Paulo. If he gets on the podium then it could make things very interesting.

It will be interesting to see how team orders come into play at the Ferrari camp, not just RBR.

[Hawkmoon]

It will be interesting to see how team orders come into play at the Ferrari camp, not just RBR.

What will be more interesting is how the media and people on this forum react to Ferrari's use of team orders.

If Massa is leading Alonso then I have no doubt the Brazillian will give up the win. He did it 2007 for Raikkonen and this year will be no different. The reaction may be completely different however.

[Mia 01]

The no 2 in the teams must have a very fast car and drive very good if they should be able to help their teammates.

The only one who fits this is Seb.

[52Paddy]

What will be more interesting is how the media and people on this forum react to Ferrari's use of team orders.

If Massa is leading Alonso then I have no doubt the Brazillian will give up the win. He did it 2007 for Raikkonen and this year will be no different. The reaction may be completely different however.

I'm not looking forward to that :mark:

Going into these final two races, we need to bear in mind that team orders will take place in some form, be it officially or unofficially; proven or unproven. I just hope people can except the eventual champion if he is crowned in such circumstances. It wouldn't be the first time.

I don't like the idea of team orders but, it causes more trouble and bitchiness when trying to police the problem, that I would rather see them legalised. Anyway, that's a discussion for the other thread.

[Ranger]

http://www.marca.com/2010/11/02/multimedia/graficos/1288693841.html

Makes it all easy. :D

[Tazio]

I'm not looking forward to that :mark:

Going into these final two races, we need to bear in mind that team orders will take place in some form, be it officially or unofficially; proven or unproven. I just hope people can except the eventual champion if he is crowned in such circumstances. It wouldn't be the first time.
I don't like the idea of team orders but, it causes more trouble and bitchiness when trying to police the problem, that I would rather see them legalised. Anyway, that's a discussion for the other thread.

Indeed!

[ShiftingGears]

http://www.marca.com/2010/11/02/multimedia/graficos/1288693841.html

Makes it all easy. :D

Interestingly, its still mathematically possible for the top 5 to finish equal on points. That'd be something.

[Hawkmoon]

If Vettel wins the last two races and Alonso finishes 3rd and 5th they would finish equal on points and Vettel would be champion by the fact that he has more 4th place finishes (3 to 0) than Alonso. What a way to decide achanpionship that would be.

[555-04Q2]

What a way to decide achanpionship that would be.

No thanks!!!

[Tazio]

If Vettel wins the last two races and Alonso finishes 3rd and 5th they would finish equal on points and Vettel would be champion by the fact that he has more 4th place finishes (3 to 0) than Alonso. What a way to decide achanpionship that would be.

WELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL...................... ..................................
Isn't that consistant with the way the Boss gave Fred a thorough beat-down for secomd place in 2007 on the same points :s ailor:

[Big Ben]

WELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL...................... ..................................
Isn't that consistant with the way the Boss gave Fred a thorough beat-down for secomd place in 2007 on the same points :s ailor:

It was enough for some to talk to these days about how the rookie beat the living days out of the double wdc :laugh:

[Tazio]

It was enough for some to talk to these days about how the rookie beat the living days out of the double wdc :laugh:

The thing that I find amusing is if Fred was such a bad element at McLaren why is it that The Boss has not equaled his brilliance he displayed in 2007?
In 2008 He beat Massa by one corner in a rather un-spectacular season. He's been solid and at times spectacular but 2007 was by far his best season except for the two rookie mistakes in China, and Brazil
Alright now feel free to put your spin on it.

[AndyL]

Rather nice illustration of the championship situation in cartoon form on f1fanatic:
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2010/11/05/the-problems-of-a-two-tier-championship/f12010caricature/

[ShiftingGears]

Rather nice illustration of the championship situation in cartoon form on f1fanatic:
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2010/11/05/the-problems-of-a-two-tier-championship/f12010caricature/

Brilliant.

[Big Ben]

Rather nice illustration of the championship situation in cartoon form on f1fanatic:
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2010/11/05/the-problems-of-a-two-tier-championship/f12010caricature/

I think it's stupid.

[Big Ben]

The thing that I find amusing is if Fred was such a bad element at McLaren why is it that The Boss has not equaled his brilliance he displayed in 2007?
In 2008 He beat Massa by one corner in a rather un-spectacular season. He's been solid and at times spectacular but 2007 was by far his best season except for the two rookie mistakes in China, and Brazil
Alright now feel free to put your spin on it.

perhaps it's because being equal to a 2 times wdc makes you look better than beating to slow drivers... and maybe you have to give more to handle a more competitive environment... or because being a rookie everybody expected to need more time to give he's best but he was closer to his maximum potential than most thought... and now the progress is much slower...or something like that. I don't know.

[fandango]

The thing that I find amusing is if Fred was such a bad element at McLaren why is it that The Boss has not equaled his brilliance he displayed in 2007?
In 2008 He beat Massa by one corner in a rather un-spectacular season. He's been solid and at times spectacular but 2007 was by far his best season except for the two rookie mistakes in China, and Brazil
Alright now feel free to put your spin on it.

Well, I think it's well documented on here that I think Alonso is better than Hamilton, and I even prefer his character too. However, to claim that Hamilton has not equaled his brilliance in 2007 is just silly. Lewis Hamilton is simply one of the best there is, and he has shown this on many occasions with inspired gutsy drives. There are few races where he can be discounted or ignored. Putting together a whole season, though, is another story, and it takes more than just one driver to do that. And I actually think as a driver his 2009 season was better than 2007. We've been lucky this season that so many drivers and teams are at such a high level, otherwise he could easily be leading the WDC.

[Tazio]

Well, I think it's well documented on here that I think Alonso is better than Hamilton, and I even prefer his character too. However, to claim that Hamilton has not equaled his brilliance in 2007 is just silly. Lewis Hamilton is simply one of the best there is, and he has shown this on many occasions with inspired gutsy drives. There are few races where he can be discounted or ignored. Putting together a whole season, though, is another story, and it takes more than just one driver to do that. And I actually think as a driver his 2009 season was better than 2007. We've been lucky this season that so many drivers and teams are at such a high level, otherwise he could easily be leading the WDC.I respect the hell out of the boss perhaps my comments were a little over the top. The expectation has set the bar very high. It's gets a little gray when the car is not competitive. Many hailed him as the next Jim Clark. His results are not very Clarkesque. I can't wait till he moves over to Ferrari after Fred retires ;)
As for now he is still in a maturation prosess IMHO

[Big Ben]

I respect the hell out of the boss perhaps my comments were a little over the top. The expectation has set the bar very high. It's gets a little gray when the car is not competitive. Many hailed him as the next Jim Clark. His results are not very Clarkesque. I can't wait till he moves over to Ferrari after Fred retires ;)
As for now he is still in a maturation prosess IMHO

what process? Shock! wait a minute... I've seen an extra 's' and 'b'. Sorry, my bad, never mind