Weather Forecast for WinStar World Casino 400 Weekend (Texas)

[slorydn1]

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 97. Calm wind.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

[slorydn1]

This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 92. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. South southeast wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 97. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 75. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

[slorydn1]

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Tx
119 Pm Cdt Thu Jun 3 2010

.aviation...

For The 18z Tafs...primary Forecast Concerns For The Metroplex Taf
Sites Are Timing The Chance From Northerly To Southerly Flow And
Precipitation Chances Thru The Evening Hrs.

Precipitation Chances...continued The Trend Of The Previous
Forecast Keeping 3 Hrs Of Cb In The Sky Groups During The Peak
Heating Hrs Of The Day. Short Range Models Disagree On Degree Of
Instability Present After 21z Around The Metroplex. Opted To Side
With The Nam Which Indicates That Weak Subsidence Thru The 6 To 12
Kft Layer Will Cap The Atmosphere Limiting Tstm Chances This
Afternoon. The Ruc Was Much More Unstable And Offered A Solution
Bringing Scattered Tstm Activity Into The Area After 21z. The
Primary Reason Less Instability Is Favored Is The Fairly Thick
Cirrus Shield That Has Built Over The Metroplex Early This
Afternoon. This Should Limit Further Heating This Afternoon Which
Means That Tstms Are Less Likely To Occur. Will Monitor Hourly
Trends Of Course And Amend If Tstms From The South Look To Build
North And Threaten The Metroplex.

Flow Changes...upper Level Winds Moving Over The Rockies Will
Continue To Bring Lee Side Troughing Over The Western High Plains.
Eventually This Will Strengthen To The Point That North Tx Winds
Will Back Veer Around To The Southeast. When Exactly That Will
Happen Is Difficult To Determine With Northeasterly Flow Holding
Over Much Of The Region. Sided With Lamp Guidance And Kept A
Switch From North To South Flow Around 21z. If This Timing Looks
To Be Delayed Will Try To Send Amendments Asap.

Today...vfr. Isold Tstm Possible 21-00z.

Tonight...vfr.

Friday...vfr.

Cavanaugh


&&

.update...
Visible Satellite Imagery Shows Some Interesting Features This
Morning That Will Continue To Affect North Texas Weather Over The
Next 24 Hours. The Most Significant Is The Circulation Across
Southeast Texas. This System Is A Well Defined Nearly Vertically
Stacked Cyclone In The Mid/upper Levels With A Surface Reflection
Of Low Pressure Located Near Huntsville. Some Of The Surface
Features Are A Bit Convoluted Due To The Intense Overnight
Convection Which Has Distorted The Wind Field To Some Degree.
However It Appears That This Feature Has Been Taking On More
Tropical Like Characteristics Over The Last Several Hours Given
The Vertical Orientation Of The Low And Model Indications Of A
Warming Mid Level Core. This Is Concerning Because Convective
Activity Has Been Regenerating Just North Of A Pronounced Cyclonic
Center Near Cll As Indicated By Grk 88d Data. This Activity Is
Moving Westward And Will Likely Become More Efficient At Rainfall
Production Especially If Deeper Moisture To The East Can Be
Ingested Into The System. Will Have To Monitor For Potential Heavy
Rainfall Across The Southeast Counties Through This Afternoon.
Given Latest Trends...have Raised Pops Across The Southeast
Counties Through The Afternoon. Latest 12z Guidance Keeps A Closed
Circulation And Slowly Moves It East Through The Weekend...so This
Bears Close Watching Due To The Potential For Very Heavy Rainfall
In Some Areas.

The Other Feature Of Importance Is A Southward Moving Outflow
Boundary Which Appears To Have Made It Into The Northern Portions
Of The Metroplex Over The Last Hour. Thunderstorm Activity Could
Develop Along This Boundary Later This Afternoon With Additional
Heating...however Mid/high Cloudiness From Low To The South Is
Overspreading North Texas And May Limit This Afternoon Heating To
Some Degree. Other Than Raising Pops In The Southeast...have Also
Made Some Adjustments Downward To Forecast Highs Across The
Southern Half Where Cloud Cover Will Likely Hang Around For A While.

91/dunn

&&

.prev Discussion... /issued 345 Am Cdt Thu Jun 3 2010/
Remnant Rainfall From The Evening Complex Continues To Dwindle In
The Southern Cwa. However...the Mcv/upper Disturbance Responsible
For All Of The Activity Will Remain Near The Southern Edge Of The
Cwa Today As It Slowly Continues A Track To The Southeast. Will
Keep The Highest Pops For Today Across The Southern Cwa...but With
Daytime Heating And Numerous Convective Outflows Laying Across The
Region...isolated Activity Will Be Possible Across Much Of The
Region. Dont Think We Will See Near The Coverage Of Storms Today
As Yesterday. The Atmosphere Will Still Be A Bit Worked Over And
The Best Lift Associated With The Mcv Will Be Southeast Of The Cwa.

One Other Feature To Watch Is The Mcs In Ne Oklahoma. Current
Movement Is To The South/southeast And If Were To Keep This
Movement It May Clip The Northeast Cwa Around 8am. Think The Bulk
Of The Activity Will Slowly Weaken And Move East Of The Cwa...but
Will Keep A 20 Pop In The Forecast In The Ne Cwa To Account For
This System.

Strong Upper Level Ridging Will Begin To Take Hold Of The Region
Thursday And The Ridge Will Continue To Strengthen Through The
Weekend. The Gfs Continues To Be The Warmest Model With 850 Temps
Saturday And Sunday Around 26 Degrees C For Dfw And Waco And
Approaching 30 Degrees C In Our Western Zones. These Temperatures
Would Lead To Highs In The 104-106 Range. Other Model Guidance
Remains Cooler. The Nam 850 Temps Are About 4-5c Cooler Than The
Gfs And The Ecmwf/canadian Are In The Middle. Will Continue To
Stick Closer To The Ecmwf/canadian With Highs In The 100-103 Range
West Of Interstate 35. If The Gfs Were To Verify...records Would
Easily Be Broken This Weekend. Regardless...this Will By Far Be
The Hottest Weather Of The Year With Temperatures Well Above
Normal. Anyone With Outdoor Plans Should Plan To Drink Plenty Of
Water And Take Frequent Breaks From The Heat.

The Ridge Will Begin To Break Down Early Next Week And
Temperatures Will Cool Slightly. The Gfs Wants To Drop A Cold
Front Down To Near I-20 On Day 7 With Widespread Precip. Will Opt
To Leave This Out Of The Forecast For Now Until A More Consistent
Solution Occurs.

85/nh