Weather Forecast for Kansas Truck Race Weekend

[slorydn1]

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


The dreaded "R" word again

[slorydn1]

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 14 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. West wind between 5 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 72.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 72.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.

Raceday weather looks good....looks like the timing of the bad weather should
get it through and our by early Saturday morning.....in time for a good support race (indy car is in town as the support race for the truck series).

[slorydn1]

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. West southwest wind between 16 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A slight chance of showers before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. West southwest wind between 11 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Saturday: A slight chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. West southwest wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. South wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 69. South southwest wind between 6 and 10 mph.

[slorydn1]

000
Fxus63 Keax 301156
Afdeax

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/pleasant Hill Mo
656 Am Cdt Fri Apr 30 2010

...updated Aviation Discussion...


.update...

Outflow Boundary Continues To Surge Southeast Through The Wind
Advisory Area. Combine This With A Veering Low Lvl Jet And Increasing
Stratus And Wind Advisory Criteria Will No Longer Be Met This
Morning. Have Adjusted Wind Grids And Dropped Advisory Early.

Dux

&&

.discussion...
/329 Am Cdt Fri Apr 30 2010/

Early This Morning...an Area Of Convection Ahead Of A Sfc Front
Stretching From The Nw Corner Of Mo...sw To Near Emporia...continues
To Wane This Morning As It Struggles To Move Into A More Stable
Environment Aloft And Towards The Edge Of The Mid-lvl Cap.
However...these Elevated Storms Will Continue To Progress Ne Through
The Remainder Of The Night...with A Limited Potential For Marginal
Hail. Given The Proximity Well Behind An Outflow Boundary...downward
Momentum Transfer Of The Low-lvl Wind Flow Will Be Difficult.

Other Story For The Early Morning Hours Has Been An Abnormally
Strong Llj...with 88d And Profilers Indicting A Low-lvl Jet
Approaching 90 Knots At Times. A Well Mixed Boundary Layer Has
Resulted In A Portion Of This Wind Flow Transferring To The Sfc With
Several Obs Early This Morning Placing Wind Gusts Near 50 Mph At
Times. However...given Eastward Displacement Of The Sfc
Front...gradual Veering Of The Llj And Increasing Mid-lvl Cloud
Deck...sfc Winds Are Expected To Begin To Diminish Some In The Next
Few Hours. Will Monitor Trends In The Next Two Hours With The
Potential For An Early Cancellation Of The Wind Adv.

For Today...biggest Concern Will Be Where Sfc Front Will Setup
Should Convection Clear And How Much Instability Can Develop Ahead Of
The Front. By 12z Would Expect The Sfc Front To Align Itself Slightly
Further East Than Its Current Position. Elevated Showers And
Convection May Continue To Percolate Along And Behind The Front In
Eastern Ks And Even Western Mo After Daybreak...leading To An
Increase In Mid-lvl Clouds Over The Cwa. In Addition...continual
Moisture Advection Between 925-850 Mb Should Lead To The Expansion Of
A Stratus Field Into The Mo River Valley Ahead Of The Front.

As The Next S/w Trough Currently In Socal And Az Begins To Lift Ne
This Morning...sfc Front Should Begin To Progress Eastward Towards
The I-35 Corridor By 18z. Would Still Expect A Good Amount Of Cloud
Cover Along The Front Given Lingering Elevated Convection And
Stratus Advection...likely Limiting The Instability In Eastern Ks
And Extreme Western Mo. However Areas To The East Of I-35...or
Perhaps More Or Less East Of A Harrisonville To Chillicothe And
Unionville Line Into Central/eastern Mo Will Have A Much Better Chc
To Destabilize As Sfc Temps Climb Near 80 Degrees. Once The Front
Becomes More Progressive As The S/w Approaches...waning Convection
Should Become Reinvigorated As Combination Of Residual Outflow
Boundaries And Thermal Boundaries Should Be Sufficient To Spark
Renewed Tsra. Given Strong Cross Boundary Shear Aloft...possibility
Of Initial Discrete Cell/supercell Formation Does Exist With
Potential For Storms To Quickly Transition To More Of A Linear Mode
As They Move Toward Eastern Mo.

Given The Conditional Development Of Moderate Instability...upwards
Of 1500-2000 J/kg In Nature And Deep Layer Shear Some 60
Knots...strong To Svr Storms With Large Hail And Damaging Winds Will
Be Possible. However...while Low...a Tornadic Threat Will Also Be
Present Given 0-1 Km Shear Between 10-20 Knots...0-1 Km Helicity
Values Between 150-200 M2s2 Exist...and The Likelihood Of A Narrow
Corridor Of 60 Degree Dewpoints Ahead Of The Front. This Being
Said...given The Progressive Nature Of The Front The Duration Of The
Threat Should Be Fairly Limited To A Time Frame Between 18z And 22z
As The Front And Convection Should Be Clear Of The Cwa By 00z.

A Quiet Friday Night And Saturday Will Be In Store For The Region.
Guidance Remains Persistent In Bringing Another Disturbance Through
The Region Saturday Evening And Night. Showers And Perhaps Isolated
Thunder Should Develop From The Sw And Lift Ne Through The Region.
However...the Very Dry Nature Of The Atmosphere Blo 700mb Leads Me
To Think This Will Be A Very Light Qpf Event.

Models Begin To Diverge By Sunday And Into Next Week. The Gfs
Favors A Stronger Surge Of Cold Air Coming In From The Nw Sunday
Night Into Monday...however The Ecmwf And Gem Do Not Imply Nearly
The Amount Of Cold Air That The Gfs Does. Given The Cwa Remains
Under The Elongated Shear Axis Aloft Could See The Potential Of A
Shower Or Two Although Confidence Also Remains Low.

Dux

[slorydn1]

Overnight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind between 6 and 8 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. South southwest wind between 7 and 13 mph.


looks like any bad weather will hold off until late Sunday nite/Early monday morning......the race weather is gorgeous!

[slorydn1]

000
Fxus63 Keax 020532
Afdeax

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/pleasant Hill Mo
1225 Am Cdt Sun May 2 2010

...updated Aviation Discussion...

.discussion...
For The Short Term (tonight Through Sunday Night)...

Rather Weak Surface Features Through This Period As Somewhat Phased
Northern And Southern Stream Troughs Swing Through The Center Part
Of The Country. Main Surface Front Associated With This Troughing Is
Already Situated Well Southeast Of The Forecast Area. However...this
Upper Troughing Is Expected To Give Rise To A Surface Trough Across
Nebraska And Kansas By Sunday Morning...which Should Be Moving Into
Northwest Missouri And Northeast Kansas By Late In The Afternoon.
Warming Lower Levels With Still Relatively Cool Air Aloft Should
Lead To Steepening Mid Level Lapse Rates By Afternoon Ahead Of The
Front With Surface Dewpoints Still In The Lower To Middle 50s. This
May Be Sufficient To Allow Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms To
Develop Ahead Of The Boundary. With 500 Mb Temperatures Expected To
Be Running In The Minus 18 To 20 Degree Range...the Environment
Would Be Supportive Of Hail Development.

Whether These Storms Continue Into The Tonight Period Will Be
Dependent If The Lift From The Weak Front And Upper Short Wave Will
Be Sufficient To Keep Storms Going. Gfs And Nam Would Suggest Storms
Could Continue Overnight...although Their Placements Differ With The
Gfs Further North. Will Lean Toward The Nam Which Would Suggest The
Upper Support And Surface Boundary Would Be Sufficient For Storms To
Continue Across The Northwest Half Of The Forecast Area Into Sunday
Night.

As For Tonight...current Shower And Thunderstorms Activity Is On The
Increase Across The Ozarks As A Strong Upper Jet Moves Up Across
Missouri. This Evening...the Activity Should Be Confined To The
Southeast Side Of This Upper Jet Keeping The Shower And Thunderstorm
Activity Across The Southeast Third Of The Forecast Area.
However...overnight...a Surface Wave Associated With This Upper Jet
Is Expected To Be Riding Into Southeast Missouri With The Potential
For Elevated Showers To Continue To Develop To The North Of This
Wave Closer To The 800 Mb Front.