Weather Forecast for Aaron's 499 Weekend (Talladega)

[slorydn1]

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south southwest between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 62.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms. Low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

More of the same....Great weather all week, then it all goes to heck on the weekend :mad:

[slorydn1]

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Al
637 Am Cdt Wed Apr 21 2010

.update...aviation Discussion.

&&

.discussion...

Relatively Easy First Half Of The Forecast Package As Mid Level
Ridging Will Slowly Work Into The Area From The West. For The Most
Part...we Will Remain Dry...with Temps Right Around Or Just Slightly
Above Normal As The Work Week Closes Out.

As The Weekend Approaches...the Challenge Will Be On As A
Seemingly Significant Upper Low Will Work Across The Rockies And
Into The Central Plains By Late Week. Initially...the Closed
H5 Surface Low Will Remain Vertically Stacked Keeping Much Of The
Weather Across The Plains Region. However...by Late Friday Into
Early Saturday Morning An Intense Southern Shortwave And Vort Max
Will Rotate Around The Southern Axis Of The Low Creating The
Opportunity For A Deepening...perhaps Significantly Deepening
Surface Reflection Near The Mid Mississippi Valley. While This Low
Will Likely Continue Strengthening Into The Ohio Valley....the
Deep South Will Begin To See A Sharpening Cold Front Develop Just
West Of The Lower Mississippi River Basin. This Surface
Convergence Will Quickly Work Eastward And May Be Difficult To
Distinguish Thanks The The Rapidly Developing Surface Low...i.e.
The Leeside Winds May Not Be In The Traditional South The
Northwest Flow Pattern. Nonetheless With The Surface
Convergence...upper Level Divergence...and Jet Dynamics Favorable
For Plenty Of Lift...and Much Of Central Alabama Should Prepare
For Wet Weather As A Warm Front Will Lift North Early Saturday And
Eventually The Cold Front Will Work Across The Area Over An 18 To
24 Hour Period.

I Have Taken Sometime To Begin Dissecting The Potential Threats
For Saturday...especially Saturday Afternoon And Perhaps Into The
Overnight Hours. It Is A Little Early To Get Carried Away...but
This Event Is Certainly Shaping Up To Have The Potential For
Severe Weather In The Form Of Supercells And Bowing Line Segments.
With The Deepening Low To Our North...it Will Likely Force The
Surface Winds To Have A More Southeasterly Component With An
Increasing 100 Knot Upper Level Jet Max By Late Afternoon
Saturday. Needless To Say...it Is Looking Like The Shear
Parameters Won`t Be An Issue. As Typical...however...the
Instability Will Once Again Be In Question. With The Lifting Warm
Front During The Morning And Perhaps Into The Early
Afternoon...there Will Likely Be Plenty Of Cloud Cover And Even The
Threat For A Rain Cooled Airmass. Depending On The Exact Track Of
The Low And Surface To 850 Wind Fields...there Looks To Be A Short
Window Of Opportunity To See Some Mild Clearing Especially South
And West By The Middle Afternoon Hours. If So...this Could Send
The Instability Up Over 1000 J/kg Or Even Higher. This Especially
Looks To Be The Case Just To Our West Into Central Mississippi
Where Initial Afternoon Supercells Will Develop And Work North And
East...perhaps Into Western Portions Of Central Alabama By The
Later Afternoon. Areas Further East...say East Of I65 May Have The
Luxury Of Losing Daytime Instability And Perhaps Somewhat Less Of
A Threat As We Work Into The Evening And Eventual Overnight. That
Said...no Need To Get Bogged Down In The Those Details This Early
In The Game. The Profiles To Our West That May Eventually Work
Into The Western Half Of The Area Suggest That 3 Of The 4 Threats
Will Be A Possibility. Certainly With The Cooling And Some Drying
Aloft...the Lapse Rates Will Be Supportive Of Damaging Winds And
Even Large Hail If They Hold True To Form. Also With Deepening
Shear And Backing Surface Winds...if The Low Is Placed And
Strengthens Just Right...tornadoes Will Also Certainly Be In The
Cards. A Few Stronger Tornadoes Look To Be Possible To Our
West...so Will Have To Keep An Eye On That As Well. Once
Again...we Will Need To See That Modest Instability Work Into The
Area By The Afternoon To Support Such Updrafts. Wouldn`t Speculate
At This Point At Those Kinds Of Mesoscale Details. Best Advice As
Always Will Be To Stay Tuned For Forecast Changes...especially
With Regards To All Of The Outdoor Events Planned For The Coming
Weekend.

Looks Like By Early Sunday...the Main Line Of Convergence Will Be
Through The Area And Along With It Many Of The Showers And
Thunderstorms. Beyond Sunday...looks Rather Dry With Temps
Rebounding Rather Quickly To Around Their Normal Marks.

17/klaws

[slorydn1]

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming south southwest between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 61. South southeast wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 76. Southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms. Low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.


Sundays Forecast is looking better, whatever rain there is should be gone by racetime...

Its Saturday that I'm most conerned with. Any other weekend theyd be qualifying on Friday. This weekend they are qualifying on Saturday and the National weather service is causing for severe weather on Saturday....

Be ready for a Monday Nationwide race

[slorydn1]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=AREA%20FORECAST%20DISCUSSION)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
343 AM CDT THU APR 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...

AS ALL EYES ARE LOOKING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WEATHER...AS A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SCENARIO IS LOOMING FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE PRESENT TIME...A LARGE SCALE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=LARGE%20SCALE) CUTOFF LOW (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CUTOFF%20LOW) IS WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CONUS)...WHILE A RELATIVELY WEAK
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEEMINGLY MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW FOR THE TIME
BEING...PROBABLY THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TODAY AND
TOMORROW...BRINGING A SEVERE THREAT WITH IT TO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND PERHAPS TOWARDS THE LOWER DELTA REGIONS LATE
TOMORROW EVENING. HOWEVER...THE REAL PLAYER IS YET TO COME AS A VERY
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VORT%20MAX) ROTATE AROUND THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW BY EARLY
SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGES FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE NOTHING SHORT
OF A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING...LASTING
PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MUCH OF MS...AL...AND TN.

HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL ITS EFFECTS BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AS A QUICKLY DEVELOPING WARM FRONT (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT) LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY I HAD CONCERNS ABOUT PLENTY OF
LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS AN ASSOCIATED RAIN COOLED AIRMASS
EARLY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE PROHIBITING
FACTORS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE CENTRAL
ALABAMA AT THE MERCY OF BREAKS OF THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE...AND
WITH IT...PLENTY OF POCKETS OF INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
CAPE (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAPE) VALUES WELL OVER 1000 J/KG (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=J/KG) ALONG WITH SOME AREAS WITH EVEN
HIGHER INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY). THAT COMBINED WITH THE DEEPENING (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=DEEPENING) SURFACE LOW
FORCING THE SURFACE WINDS TO BACK WITH TIME AND A POTENT MID AND
UPPER JET (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=JET)...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LARGE AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SUPERCELL)
DEVELOPMENT. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW HIGH THE INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) VALUES CAN
REACH DURING PEAK HEATING TO MAINTAIN ROBUST UPDRAFTS...AND THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL TURNING WIND FIELD (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WIND%20FIELD) WILL SEEMINGLY PROVIDE AN
ALMOST PERFECT SHEAR (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=SHEAR) TO INSTABILITY (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=INSTABILITY) BALANCE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

LOOKING AT THE FINER DETAILED PROFILES...ALBEIT WE ARE STILL AT
THE MERCY OF MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT ALL SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO
BE IN THE CARDS. WHILE MOST OF THE UPPER PROFILES REMAIN
SATURATED...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HAIL)
THREAT FOR THE MORE ROBUST CELLS. MEANWHILE...THE LOWER LEVEL
TURNING AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADOES...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONG AND LONG-LIVED TORNADOES. WE WILL NEED TO FOCUS THE ATTENTION EARLY JUST
UPSTREAM (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=UPSTREAM) FOR CELLS THAT FORM IN CENTRAL MS AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA)...HOWEVER... IT IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND
MORE LIKE WE WILL HAVE OUT OWN CELL (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CELL) DEVELOPMENT BY THE MIDDLE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES AND WE LOSE
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITIES...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT AS THE
STEEP UPPER LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK TO GENERATE AND MAINTAIN THE
THREAT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATE
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CWA). IF
GUIDANCE IS RIGHT...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE THREAT END AFTER
MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ALL SAID...THERE ARE MANY OUTDOOR EVENTS PLANNED FOR
SATURDAY...AND FOLKS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING FORECASTS TO THIS DANGEROUS SITUATION THAT IS SETTING UP. I WOULD ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW! DO WHAT IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT Y0UR LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE EVENT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

[slorydn1]

Sorry about how messy that looks. We only have IE7 at work, I use google chrome at home.

[slorydn1]

Today: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. High near 75. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Low around 63. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 10 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 79. West southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. West wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. West wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Well, at least Sunday and Monday's weather looks good.....

If any of you are down that way today be very careful, This could be the worst tornado outbreak of the season :(

[slorydn1]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham Al
631 Am Cdt Sat Apr 24 2010

Alz011>015-017>050-251200-
Marion-lamar-fayette-winston-walker-blount-etowah-calhoun-
Cherokee-cleburne-pickens-tuscaloosa-jefferson-shelby-st. Clair-
talladega-clay-randolph-sumter-greene-hale-perry-bibb-chilton-
Coosa-tallapoosa-chambers-marengo-dallas-autauga-lowndes-elmore-
Montgomery-macon-bullock-lee-russell-pike-barbour-
631 Am Cdt Sat Apr 24 2010

...high Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms And Tornadoes Today And
Tonight...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For The Counties Served By The
National Weather Service Office In Birmingham.

.day One...today And Tonight.

All Modes Of Severe Weather Will Be Possible Today And
Tonight...including Tornadoes...damaging Wind...large Hail...and
Localized Flooding. Although Isolated Severe Storms Will Be Possible
Through The Morning Hours...the Greatest Severe Weather Potential
Will Increase By Late Morning And Continue Into The Overnight
Period. Widespread Severe Storms Should Enter The Southwest By
12pm...near The Interstate 65 Corridor By 2pm...and Far Eastern
Locations By 4 Pm. This Threat Will End As A Cold Front Crosses The
Area...ending The Storm Threat Around 2am In The West And 6am In The
East.

this Has The Potential To Be A Major Tornado Outbreak With
Long-track Tornadoes Across All Of Central Alabama. All Interests
Across The Area Should Monitor The Latest Forecast Concerning This
Potentially Dangerous Weather System.

Breezy Conditions Can Be Expected Ahead Of The Front Today...with
Sustained Winds Of 17 To 20 Mph And Gusts Up To 30 Mph. A Wind
Advisory Has Been Issued For All Of Central Alabama Beginning At 9am
This Morning Through Midnight Tonight.

[slorydn1]

Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Tornado Watch Number 93
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
800 Am Cdt Sat Apr 24 2010

The Nws Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A
Tornado Watch For Portions Of

Central And Northern Alabama
Middle Tennessee

Effective This Saturday Morning And Afternoon From 800 Am Until
200 Pm Cdt.

....this Is A Particularly Dangerous Situation.....
destructive Tornadoes...large Hail To 2 Inches In Diameter Thunderstorm Wind Gusts To 70 Mph...and Dangerous Lightning Are possible In These Areas.

The Tornado Watch Area Is Approximately Along And 70 Statute
Miles East And West Of A Line From 20 Miles North Northwest Of
Nashville Tennessee To 30 Miles South Southwest Of Selma Alabama.

For A Complete Depiction Of The Watch See The Associated Watch
Outline Update (wous64 Kwns Wou3).

Remember...a Tornado Watch Means Conditions Are Favorable For
Tornadoes And Severe Thunderstorms In And Close To The Watch
Area. Persons In These Areas Should Be On The Lookout For
Threatening Weather Conditions And Listen For Later Statements
And Possible Warnings.


Discussion...thunderstorms Over Ms Will Spread Eastward Into Al And
Middle Tn Through The Morning...with Scattered Supercells Possible.
Storms Will Be Initially Elevated...but Rapid Destabilization Will
Increase The Risk Of Tornadoes By Late Morning. Very Strong Shear
Profiles Also Support A Risk Of Significant Tornadoes.

Aviation...tornadoes And A Few Severe Thunderstorms With Hail
Surface And Aloft To 2 Inches. Extreme Turbulence And Surface
Wind Gusts To 60 Knots. A Few Cumulonimbi With Maximum Tops To
500. Mean Storm Motion Vector 24035.

[Alexamateo]

Wild weather day just a little north and west of Talladega here in Memphis. Lots of lightning, then hard rain, then hail a little smaller than a ping pong ball for about 5 minutes, more rain, more lightning, lots of blustery wind then the sun popped out 5 minutes ago, and then more rain. No tornadoes here though thank goodness.

[slorydn1]

Wild weather day just a little north and west of Talladega here in Memphis. Lots of lightning, then hard rain, then hail a little smaller than a ping pong ball for about 5 minutes, more rain, more lightning, lots of blustery wind then the sun popped out 5 minutes ago, and then more rain. No tornadoes here though thank goodness.


Glad to hear it...looks like you are currently under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and a Flash Flood Warning, but it looks like the worst part is over for you, but it's still looking pretty bad down in Mississippi and Alabama.

Fingers are crossed up here in NC