Weather Forecast for Nashville 300 Weekend

[slorydn1]

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. South southeast wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.


Typical....the Cup Series is off this weekend, so the Nationwide and Truck series take center stage, and the rain is forecast for race day, as per usual
:hmph:

[slorydn1]

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 81. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. South wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

No change from yesterday....

[slorydn1]

discussion...
Analysis Showing Cold Front Now In The Atlantic...with Ul Low Just
Approaching The East Coast. Ll Moisture Continues To Hang Back Along
The Plateau But Is Slowly Working East.

Ul Low Will Pull Further East Today While Sfc High/ul Ridge Strengthen
Over The Mid-south. These Features Will Pretty Much Dominate Through
The Workweek Setting The Stage For Dry Warm Weather Into Late Friday.

Next System Set To Cross The Region Over The Weekend. Last Few Runs
Gfs Has Seemingly Come More Into Line With Ecmwf As Well As Dgx...
Still With Timing Differences However. Band Of Storms Either Way
Expected To Push In Sometime Saturday And Move Rapidly Out Of The
Picture Sunday. This Will Be Followed By Dry Start To Next Week.

&&

[slorydn1]

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. South southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northwest. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming southwest between 5 and 10 mph.

Because Saturday looks so crappy, I added Sunday, just in case

[slorydn1]

LONG TERM...
ALL MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A CONVECTIVE EVENT FOR EARLY SAT.
LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MIDWEST WITH A ASSOCIATED FRE-
FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO MID STATE EARLY SAT. PROBABLY A
WIND EVENT WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND UNI-DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL TROF...HOWEVER...SHOWING SOME NEGATIVE TILT.
BUMPED UP POPS FOR LATE FRI NITE AND SAT.

HI PRES SUN INTO TUE WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS.
NEXT SYSTEM...AGAIN WITH LO PRES OVER UPPER MIDWEST...DRAGS A
FRONT ACROSS TUE NITE AND WED.


In English, what they are calling for Saturday is the possibilty of severe weather to include a slight risk for tornadic thunderstorms...... :eek:

[slorydn1]

This Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. South southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm

Weather for the trucks looks great :up:

If this holds it looks like Nationwide will probably line up on points but should get the race in after some track drying....

[slorydn1]

000
Fxus64 Kohx 020836
Afdohx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tn
336 Am Cdt Fri Apr 2 2010

.discussion...
Strong Upper Ridge Stretches From The Gulf Northward Across The
Southeastern U.s.. Meanwhile Upper Troughing Positioned Over The
Western Portion Of The Country. In Between...good Southerly Flow
Tapping Pacific Moisture Northward Through Much Of The Nations
Interior. Precip Is Rather Sparse Right Now...but It Should Begin To
Strengthen As It Moves Eastward.

In The Meantime...another Dry Day In Store But We Will See Clouds On
The Increase. Tonight We Will See Winds Begin To Pick Up As A Storm
System To Our West Approaches. Instabilities Not Overly
Impressive. In Fact..a Lot Of The Energy Will Move Off To Our
North. Still Though...looks Like A Good Shot For Shwrs And Tstms
Beginning Late Tonight And Continuing Into Sat Morning. The System
Is A Fast Mover So Will Utilize After Midnight And Morning
Wording. Looks Like Qpf Amounts Will Avg Around .25 Inches. Clouds
Will Begin To Decrease From West To East On Sat Afternoon.

For The Near Term Temps...will Go A Touch Over The Guidance Today
And Tonight As The Fropa Wont Occur Until Saturday. Mav Is Generally
A Little Too Cool In Advance Of Fronts.

Upper Ridge To Develop Again With Warm Dry Air In Place Into The
Early Part Of Next Week. Another Upper Trough Will Head Our Way And
Drag A Frontal System With It. Looks Like Mid Week Will Be The Time
Frame For The Next Shot At Shwrs And Tstms.

[slorydn1]

This Afternoon: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Southwest wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

[slorydn1]

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Nashville Tn
1050 Am Cdt Sat Apr 3 2010

Tnz008>011-027>034-059>066-075-077>080-094-095-031815-
Sumner-macon-clay-pickett-davidson-wilson-trousdale-smith-jackson-
putnam-overton-fentress-williamson-maury-marshall-rutherford-
Cannon-de Kalb-white-cumberland-bedford-coffee-warren-grundy-
Van Buren-lawrence-giles-
Including The Cities Of...hendersonville...gallatin...lafayette...
Red Boiling Springs...celina...byrdstown...nashville...lebanon ...
Mount Juliet...green Hill...hartsville...carthage...
South Carthage...gordonsville...gainesboro...cookeville. ..
Livingston...jamestown...allardt...franklin...bren twood...
Columbia...lewisburg...murfreesboro...smyrna...la Vergne...
Woodbury...smithville...sparta...crossville...fair field Glade...
Shelbyville...tullahoma...manchester...mcminnville ...
Gruetli-laager...tracy City...altamont...coalmont...palmer...
Beersheba Springs...spencer...lawrenceburg...pulaski
1050 Am Cdt Sat Apr 3 2010

.now...
Rain Showers Will Continue Moving Across Middle Tennessee This
Morning. Gusty Winds May Still Accompany Some Of These Showers In
Eastern Parts Of The Mid State. Average Hourly Rainfall Amounts Of
Less Than One Tenth Of An Inch Can Be Expected. Showers Should Move
Out Of The Area By The Early Afternoon Hours.

$$

Rlh

[slorydn1]

000
Fxus64 Kohx 031630
Afdohx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tn
1130 Am Cdt Sat Apr 3 2010

.update...
Showers Pulling East Rather Quickly So Have Updated Zones And Grids
To Reflect This. Expect Showers Will Exit Plateau By Mid-afternoon. No
Residual Showers Expected With Plenty Of Sunshine Remainder Of The
Day. Did Not Make Any Adjustements Temps.

Boyd

&&

.prev Discussion... /issued 743 Am Cdt Sat Apr 3 2010/

Update...
Will Amp Up Pop Into The Categorical Range For The Plateau. Will
Back Off The Mention Of Tstms As The Lightning Returns Have Backed
Off Dramatically. Will Keep The Likely Pops Going West Of The
Plateau For This Morning. Still Looks Like Partial Clearing Will
Commence By Midday.

Prev Discussion... /issued 624 Am Cdt Sat Apr 3 2010/

Aviation...12z Aviation Discussion...
Showers And Tstms Will Work There Way Quickly Across The Mid State
Through 18z Today. Precip Will Be Continuous For The First 3 To 6
Hrs Of The Taf. Sct Tstms Will Accompany The Shower Activity. Cigs
Between Two And Three Thousand Feet Will Accompany Vsbys As Low As
4 Sm With The Heavier Rainfall. Partial Clearing Will Commence
After 18z As Drier Air Moves In.

Prev Discussion... /issued 318 Am Cdt Sat Apr 3 2010/

Discussion...
Showers And Tstms Are On The March And Have Now Moved East Of The Ms
River At This Time. Upper Level Energy In Association With The
Activity Is Expected To Lift Off To The North As The Sfc Boundary
Moves Our Way. Thus...a Weakening Trend Is Expected.
Nevertheless...we Will See The Showers And Tstms Move Across Our
Area This Morning. Some Instability At The 850 Mb Level May Combine
With Elevated Winds At That Same Level To Produce Some Strong Winds
Across Our Southern Counties This Morning. Spc Contemplating A Watch
At This Time For Portions Of Our Area.

Boundary Will Push East Of The Area By Afternoon. Given The
Northward Track Of The Upper Energy...we Will See The Effect Of A
Dry Slot Which Will Decrease Our Clouds This Afternoon And Bring
Drier Air Back In Across The Mid State. Otw...qpf`s For Today Should
Avg .25 Inches To .50 Inches.

Tonight Through Sun Nt Will See A Return To Mostly Clear Skies.
Then...for Monday As Weak System May Bring A Few Showers Or Tstms.
Not Really Seeing Much Dynamics With This And The Recovery From The
Dry Airmass Is Questionable. Thus...will Only Include A 20 Pop For
Monday.

For The Near Term Temps...have Taken The Mav And Met And Will Toss
Them In The Blender This Go Round...thereby Going With A Blend.

In The Ext Fcst...next Frontal System Is Slated For Mid Week
According To The Gfs. Euro And Dgex Solutions Looking Drier Though.
Otw...temps Will Cool T Near Seasonal Behind The Mid Week Fropa.

&&

.ohx Watches/warnings/advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Boyd

[slorydn1]

Thats what I get for not paying attention to what I click, I did not intend to start a new thread for this. This belongs in the "Weather forecast for Nashville 300" thread, if a moderator deems necessary to merge it there, thats cool by me :up: