Weather Forecast for Goody's Fast Relief 500 Weekend

[slorydn1]

Friday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.

Weather Looks decent for the weekend...chance of rain on Qual Day though :D

[slorydn1]

Friday: Showers likely, mainly before 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 58. North wind between 7 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 39.

Sunday: A chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

OK......time for me to keep my BIIIIG mouth shut...the dreaded "R" word just crept into Sunday's forecast.

Now.....I Kinda hope Friday gets rained out, for 2 reason's

1) Harvick would start P1 (and even I hafta admit, that's the only way he's EVER gonna be on the pole at Martinsville :p :

2) It's about the only way to keep Jimmie Johnson OFF the front row at Martinsville :p :

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS61 KRNK 241328
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
928 AM EDT WED MAR 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY...AND PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

(skip ahead to the meaty part):

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN THE MIDLEVELS WHICH START OUT DRY. TYPICALLY A
POCKET OF THIS DRIER AIR AT H7 WILL HOLD INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY A
LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS FORECAST. THEREFORE...PLACED A SHARP
GRADIENT WITH REGARDS TO POPS LATER THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT BETWEEN SE WEST VA/SW VA AND THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...DID SPEED UP AND INC POPS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 6Z-12Z
FRIDAY. WITH WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA...DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS SHOULD BE MITIGATED. QPF IS LIGHT FOR THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP JUST HANGING ALONG
THE EXTREME NE PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
UPGLIDE EXISTS AS THE LLVLS REMAIN MOIST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERING CLDS FOR MUCH
OF FRIDAY AND CAA...GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM...SO DID UNDERCUT TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID WEST WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
IN KENTUCKY AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES AND JET DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH THE FRONT MAKING A RUN INTO THE AREA EARLY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIER.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST...A SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA AND KICK OUT ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT FOR MORE RAIN ON
SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BEING EASTERLY AND STRONG MOIST WARM
AIR ADVECT ALOFT...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD HAVE THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...CONVECTION ALONG THE VA/NC COAST WILL
REDUCE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS OVER THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL ENCOMPASS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH UPSLOPE POSSIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE AREA WILL SEE TWO SHOTS OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND DURATION OF EACH EVENT.

[slorydn1]

Friday: Rain, mainly before 11am. High near 55. North wind between 5 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 32. East wind around 6 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 55. East wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Sunday: Rain likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


Looks like the pattern is seting up to be exactly the same as it was for Bristol on raceday, but cooler......

More of a possiblity of getting qually in, tho

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS61 KRNK 250831
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
431 AM EDT THU MAR 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...WILL THEN MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY MOISTEN MIDDLE AND
LOWER TROPOSPHERE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE EXTREME WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT
SPREADING EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AREA...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF FILTERED INSOLATION THROUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT THROUGH THE MORNING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOS GUIDANCE QUITE
CONSISTENT AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH SOME TWEAKS MADE TO REFLECT
LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY.

UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS FIELDS INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO CONTRIBUTION
OF GOOD QG FORCING IN 850-500 MILLIBAR LAYER ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COUPLED UPPER JET STREAK.
DEEP/BROAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH INCREASINGLY SATURATED
LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE BLACKSBURG FORECAST
AREA...AND THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL RANGE TO
REFLECT THE ABOVE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC CONSIDERING
INITIAL QUICK FALL DUE TO WET BULB INFLUENCE AS RAIN ARRIVES IN
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD UNTIL COLD FRONT AND
SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES SHORTLY BEFORE/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
FAVORED THE COOLER METMOS TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE INFLUENCE OF COLDER AIR WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED...BUT
FAVORED THE MILDER MAVMOS AND LOCALLY RUN MOSMOS FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT EXPERIENCE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE UNTIL DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL JUST BE MOVING OFF THE VA/NC COAST 12Z
FRIDAY. H5 TROUGH/SHRTWV STILL OVER SW VA/SE WEST VA...AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL LINGER ALONG THE UPSLOPE SECTIONS OF THOSE PARTS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST INTO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE/SLGT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN FRIDAY THERE. DRIER
AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF FRIDAY...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS. A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS
OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE WEST VA. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON ANY SUNSHINE THAT IS ABLE TO GET THROUGH...WHICH MAY NOT
BE MUCH TO ALLOW MUCH RECOVERY FROM MORNING LOWS ALONG THE
LWB/BLF/6V3 CORRIDOR. SOME CLEARING/DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER MARCH
SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING ELSEWHERE...BUT STILL UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. CRASHING INVERSION SHOULD REMOVE ANY
PESKY LLVL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
START TO SATURDAY AS DRY AIR ARRIVES IN EARNEST...REFLECTED BY
INCREASING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT MAY REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHSIDE AND NC
PIEDMONT TO KEEP MIN T NO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS. USED THE
DRIEST MEMBER OF GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS SATURDAY...AND UNDERCUT
THAT BY A FEW DEGREES...AS GUIDANCE DEW POINTS TYPICALLY HAVE A
MOIST BIAS THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY WITH AN AIR MASS ARRIVING
ON N TO NE SURFACE FLOW. SATURDAY OBVIOUSLY THE BEST DAY OF THE
WEEKEND...AS DEEP S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A CLOSED H5 LOW
MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX ON SUNDAY. GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLES MAY BE A
TAD TOO QUICK WITH RAIN ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY...CONSIDERING A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH AGREEMENT ATTM TO EDGE
POPS UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN. DID UNDERCUT MEX
NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY MAX T CONSIDERING THE ABOVE...BUT WAS HESITANT
TO GO TOO COOL WITH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT REMAINING THROUGH THE
EVENT. LARGE DISAGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE SHRT RANGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS WITH REGARDS TO H85 TEMPS FOR 12Z MONDAY. SIDED WITH THE
WARMER SOLUTION AS THE OP GFS IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO ITS
ENSEMBLES AND THE ECMWF.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN TO
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE AS MEAN
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD GRADUALLY RELAXES...ALLOWING RETURN TO MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW. HPC GUIDANCE FOLLOWED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[slorydn1]

Friday: Rain, mainly before 11am. High near 56. North wind between 9 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 30. Northeast wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 56. East wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. East wind between 3 and 6 mph.

Sunday: Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.


Sunday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Either be ready for a Bristol like scenario, or the possibility of the first Tuesday race in over 2 years

[slorydn1]

Today: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

[slorydn1]

000
Fxus61 Krnk 291118
Afdrnk

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg Va
718 Am Edt Mon Mar 29 2010

.synopsis...
Low Pressure Along The North Carolina Coast Will Lift Slowly North
Reaching The Mid Atlantic Coast Overnight. An Upper Level Area Of
Low Pressure Will Move East Across The Region This Afternoon And
Then Pass To The Northeast On Tuesday. High Pressure Will Bring
Clearing Skies And Much Warmer Weather To The Area From Mid Week
Into Next Weekend.

&&

.near Term /through Tonight/...
Update To Drop The Flood Watch Across The Remainder Of The Region
As Showers Continue To Slowly Diminish. Otrw Will Keep High Pops
In That Area A Bit Longer As Lighter Rainfall Will Persist A
Couple More Hours Or So. No Other Changes For Now.

Residual Frontal Boundary Remains Just To The Se Of The Cwa This
Morning With Weak Waves Continuing To Keep Rainfall Going Across Nw
Nc Into Southside Va. Expect As The Last S/w Rotates Thru And Helps
Enhance A Final Stronger Sfc Low Will See The Se Precip Fade Toward
12z As The Flow Becomes A Little More N/nw. However Until This
Happens Will Likely Leave Up A Portion Of The Flood Watch Over The
Extreme Se Until 6 Am And Cancel The Remainder Where Only Spotty
-shra Are Expected Early On. Otrw Expect Majority Of Lift To Exit
The Region This Morning As We Briefly Slip In Between The Coastal
Low Along The Nc Coast And The Upper Low Just West Of The Mountains
Attm. Upper Cold Pool Will Then Shift East Into The Region From The
West This Afternoon And Gradually Exit To The Ne Overnight.
Increasing Lapse Rates Under This Feature Provided A Bit Of Heating
Likely To Spark Renewed Shra Coverage Espcly Along The Blue Ridge
And Points West Early This Afternoon...then Over The East Thru Early
Evening. If Can Get More Heating...models Show A Bit Of Cape At
Least Aloft Which Suggests Isolated Tsra/small Hail Potential So
Including Thunder Mention Mainly Blue Ridge And Se Piedmont Until
About 00z Or So. In Addition...may See A Band Of Wrap Around Shra
Affect The Upslope Zones Where Will Have Likely Pops Thru This
Evening...otrw Mainly Chance Pops After Morning Shra Exit The Se.
Think Overall Coverage Should Diminish With Loss Of Heating Later
Tonight With Only Isolated Lingering Shra Mainly Nw As The Upper Low
Departs Late. There May Be Just Enough 85h Cooling To Cause A Change
To Snow Showers Late At The Highest Elevations Across The Nc Ridges
And Se Wva But Tricky Given A Rather Warm Boundary Layer.

Temps Remain Iffy Under Clouds And Where If Any Breaks Do Develop
This Afternoon. Basically Leaned Toward The Cooler Mav Side Of Mos
Today Altho If More Sun Then Locations In The Lee Of The Blue Ridge
Could Quickly Zoom Up Into The 60s. Bumped Up Lows Tonight As Well
Given Increased Nw Winds/mixing Behind The Coastal Low...and Leftover
Clouds Which Keeps Most Of The West Above Freezing And Mainly
Low/mid 40s East.