Weather Forecast for Food City 500 Weekend

[slorydn1]

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 65.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Ahhhh...Springtime in Nascar Country; Warm days, cool nights, no rain until a race is scheduled. Gotta Love It... :p :

[slorydn1]

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 64. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Sunday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53.

Sunday weather is looking really crappy. Be ready for a possible Monday race :(

[slorydn1]

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THE
LONG TERM IS SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...BUT BOTH SUGGEST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY. THERE ARE ALSO SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW LONG
PRECIP WILL LINGER BEHIND SYSTEM...BUT HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES TO
PRECEDING FORECAST IN THIS REGARD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN
THE LONG TERM BUT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE WEEK. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
MAV/MEX GUIDANCE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MRX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[slorydn1]

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North wind around 5 mph becoming south.

Sunday: Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night: Showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52.


Well, Sunday's forecast just got worse, with the day time POP raised from 60% to &70% and the nite time up from 30% to 60 %......can you say MONDAY race?

[slorydn1]

000
Fxus64 Kmrx 181833
Afdmrx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown Tn
233 Pm Edt Thu Mar 18 2010

.short Term (tonight And Friday)...mid-level Clouds Will Dissipate
Across The Forecast Area Early This Evening With Clear Skies
Overnight. Patchy Fog Possible Across Area Lakes And Streams.

For Friday...ridge Of High Pressure Will Build Into The Region
Producing Clear Skies With Warmer Temperatures. Have Trended Toward
Gfs Mos Numbers Tonight And Friday.

.long Term (friday Night Through Thursday)...upper Ridge Will Be
Shifting East Of The Area On Saturday...but Should Continue To Be
The Main Weather Influence For The First Part Of The Weekend. A
Cold Front Slides Through On Sunday...bringing With It A Band Of
Widespread Showers. Have Keep Likely Pops For This...and Have Also
Kept Thunder Wording Out Of The Forecast As The Air Mass Over The
Area Should Be Fairly Stable. The Better Chance Of Thunderstorms
Will Remain To Our South. Behind The Front...the Associated Upper
Low Tracks Through The Region Sunday Night Into Monday...bring
Cooler Air And Lingering Isolated To Scattered Showers. The Low
Lifts Out As High Pressure Builds In Tuesday And Wednesday.
Confidence Low On Details For The Rest Of Thee Extended...but The
Next System Will Push Into The Area Around Thursday.

[slorydn1]

Here is the radar link you can use real time during the race weekend, Just type in Bristol Motor Speedway in the Select a Location field.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=34.76912308&lon=-76.87262726&zoom=8&type=ter&rad=1amp;&rad.num=1&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=70&rad.stm=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0&fire=0

I have a feeling we will be wearing it out on Sunday

[slorydn1]

This Afternoon: High near 68. West wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 36. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Calm wind.

Sunday: Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. South wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 56.

Still looking like a possible washout for Sunday, and they are now calling for a chance of rain on Monday, so I have added Tuesday's forecast, just in case.

The weather for practice, quals and the Nationwide race looks beautiful

[slorydn1]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Sunday: A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 42. Southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 50. West wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Today's weather is beautiful, albeit cold this morning (its currently 32 deg F :eek: )

Tomrrow's race depends alot on the timing of the start of precip, the window currently progged to open at 2pm. Could we get past lap 250? Its a possibility, yes, but be ready for a short race then....

[slorydn1]

000
Fxus64 Kmrx 200825
Afdmrx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown Tn
425 Am Edt Sat Mar 20 2010

.short Term (today And Tonight)...
High Pressure Ridge Will Move Off The Atlantic Coast Today While A
Strong Low Pressure System Takes Shape Over The Southern Plains.
This Will Put The Tennessee Valley Region In A Southwesterly
Flow...providing Even Warmer Temperatures Today. Though There May Be
Some Thin High Clouds...they Should Have Little Impact On
Temperatures...with The Southern Valley Nearing The Mid 70s. Most
Other Locations Outside The Mountains Will Be In The Upper 60s To
Lower 70s.

Clouds Will Be Increasing This Evening As Midlevel Moisture And Lift
Increase Ahead Of A Closed Low To Our West. The Lift Remains Weak
Before 12z Sunday And Most Precip Should Hold Off Until After That
Time. Will Cut The Pops Back Tonight To Only A Slight Chance West
After 09z. There Are Some Timing Differences Between The Nam And Gfs
That Give Some Uncertainty Regarding The Onset Of Precip...with The
Gfs Being Faster...but Dry Low Level Air Will Need To Be Overcome
Before Precip Can Reach The Ground Tonight.

.long Term (sunday Through Friday)...a Front Enters The Area On
Sunday Bringing An Increase In Moisture With It. Will Keep Likely
To Categorical Pops For Sunday. Some Instability Is Also Expected So
Will Mention Thunder For The Afternoon Hours. An Upper Low Enters
The Region On Sunday Night And Monday. Will Continue The Likely Pops
Going For Sunday Night And Chance Pops For Monday With Highest
Chances In The North. Should Have Cooler Weather On Monday. The
Upper Low Exits The Region On Monday Night And Tuesday. With Brief
Light Snow Possible On Monday Night And Tuesday Morning Across The
Higher Elevations. Ridging Returns Bringing Dry Weather For
Wednesday. Another Front Approaches The Cwa On Thursday...but
Moisture Is Limited So Will Continue With A Dry Forecast For
Thursday. A Stronger Front Tracks Into Region On Friday...so Will
Keep The Low Chance Pops Going For Friday. Stayed Near Mex/hpc
Guidance For Temperatures.

&&

[BobbyC]

Here's what I predict:

NASCAR will move up the pre-race to 12:30 and have engines start at 12:50 PM. The green flag will be at 1:01 PM. We could see a mad dash where the drivers try to have a fast race to get at least 245 laps before the rain falls. If they get to 248 and the yellow files, then they could theoretically finish the 251st lap before a red flag. In 2002, the fall Nationwide race at Darlington was rain-logged that they had to get 73 laps in of 147, stopped the cars before the start-finish line on Lap 74. When NASCAR couldn't get the race finished, the cars were asked to just roll across the line at 74 to make it official and NASCAR called it. Hope they don't have to do that.

[slorydn1]

Today: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Showers, mainly after 8pm. Low around 50. Southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

The Sunday Forecast has improved somewhat, we may be able to get the whle race in before the ran gets here :D

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS64 KMRX 210819
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
419 AM EDT SUN MAR 21 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD PRECIP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BY LATE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE JET EXIT REGION. DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THUS THE BRISTOL AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE SUNSET. THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MILD TEMPERATURES...AND WILL
GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TN VALLEY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY TODAY.

HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LLJ. THE 30-40 KT LLJ
MAY ALSO BRING WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS MARGINAL ENOUGH AND LATE ENOUGH
TO LET THE DAY SHIFT MONITOR AND EVALUATE LATER. INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. 850 MB
TEMPS DROP RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CHANGING TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION BEFORE 12Z.

They actually mentioned Bristol in the discussion :up: