MotoGP rookies in 2010

[jens]

2010 will see at least five full-time rookies in Moto GP (current Top4 of 250cc + Spies). What do you reckon, which one of them will end up on top and how will anyone of them perform? :) Is anyone among them capable of becoming a true top contender? In 2006 we got Pedrosa and Stoner, in 2008 Lorenzo and Dovizioso. By now all of them have established themselves in the Top5. Two years on and are we going to get more exciting prospects?

[patnicholls]

Good thread and an interesting debate to be had.

Personally I'll go for Spies just ahead of Simoncelli.

Ben is (presumably) going to find MotoGP a tougher nut to crack than WSB -despite WSB 2009 being one of the strongest line-ups ever, his performance has been remarkable to say the least - but the Yamaha still looks like the bike to be on overall and he should probably find himself in the top six or eight which would be a decent showing.

Marco Simoncelli has really matured as a rider in the past two seasons of 250s and also demonstrated his versatility with that WSB podium at Imola beating a certain Max Biaggi on the same bike so he's already decent at riding a bigger capacity bike. Gresini could well move back up the order slightly with the hardworking Melandri back aboard in place of Toni Elias who blows too hot-and-cold.

As for the others - Hiroshi Aoyama is likely to be in at the deep end with a team new to the class (although has been superb this year on outdated kit), Alvaro Bautista is also probably up against it on a Suzuki, and Hector Barbera isn't Casey Stoner so may well find the Ducati a handful.

The sixth guy to mention is Aleix Espargaro, I'm not sure whether he'll be classed a rookie after doing a few races this season but he seems pretty promising to say the least despite not having an amazing 125/250 career.

Mind you, it would be very interesting to see one of them crack into the elusive current top four!

[The Phantom]

I agree that Spies has got to be at the top of the rookie tree, with Simoncelli close behind - Spies simply seems to have better racecraft, although you could argue that racecraft is more critical in 125/250 due to the closer racing.

I hope that the Suzuki is better than it seems, and that Bautista can do something with it - he deserves a strong bike.

Overall, I just think it's great to see some new blood in MGP, and maybe 2011 will see some serious reshuffling of the order at the top...

[TheFamousEccles]

Bautista's career is effectively over - jumping on the suzuki just because it's a factory bike is a hiding to nothing. Just ask Vermeulen.

Spies is going to be the one to watch IMO, Simoncelli is over-rated. Aside from Ayoyama (who is a class rider for my money, given the crap he had to ride this year), Simoncelli has had no real consistent challenger - occasionally Faubel or Barbera stood up, but only Hiroshi consistently had a crack at him and came up smiling.

Then again, I could be wrong about all of this :D though I have hoped for a strong suzuki for many a year and have been left wanting, so I think I am right about Bautista

[Cryogeneric]

I'm guessing Simoncelli will have the most success. He's struggling a bit, but he's talented enough that one can assume he'll figure things out before the season starts.

Buatista will regret siging with Suzuki as I think their days are numered unless we see an economic turrn around real soon. I don't see how a factory on the verge of dropping out can suddenly whip out a competitive bike after years of struggling.

No one on a Ducati has had success except Stoner, but with the new 2010 firing order that could change. Nicky's testing times seem to indicate that it's possible. You have to be impressed with Barbera times, too, so he may be someone to watch.

Spies has the most to learn out of all the rookies and needs to change his riding style. That's a tall order and we're still waiting for the first superbike rider to have success on an 800cc prototype. The Yamaha still might be the best bike so that certainly won't hurt.