will button keep his lead for wdc or lose it all before it is over? [Archive]

markabilly

13th July 2009, 07:50

8 races to GO, 21 points ahead

button 68 (6 wins)
vettel 47 (two wins)
webber 45.5 (one win)

seems a couple of years ago, there was this driver with A 17 point lead and two races to go...... :rolleyes:

Will button hold on? :confused:
will webber start rackin up victories...... :eek:

did the bookies already pay off, maybe too early?? :dozey:

F1boat

13th July 2009, 08:08

The bookmakers was foolish. I have to say that this is racing and in racing everything can happens. Button might lose the WDC or win it two races before the end. I don't know, everything can happen. We saw what happened with Loeb in the WRC...

Valve Bounce

13th July 2009, 08:31

YES

ArrowsFA1

13th July 2009, 08:32

I don't think Button will lose it, although he may not have the car to hang on to his lead. Brawn need to up their game because Red Bull clearly have the strongest car at the moment.

ioan

13th July 2009, 08:56

I don't think Button will lose it, although he may not have the car to hang on to his lead. Brawn need to up their game because Red Bull clearly have the strongest car at the moment.

Just a matter of time until Ferrari, Williams and McLaren will be all beating the BrawnGPs.

christophulus

13th July 2009, 11:30

Button still has a chance, he's the number 1 driver at Brawn, and the problem his competitors have is that they can't favour one of their drivers. It's just like McLaren in 07, the Red Bull drivers are going to take points off each other and Button will just scrape through I think.

But if Brawn don't show an improvement in pace in Hungary I may well have to rethink that..

ioan

13th July 2009, 11:42

It really all depends on how many other cars are able to beat them.
I'm not sure why RedBull aren't bringing STR up to their level in order to have them beat the Brawns or at least make their life difficult to make further unforced and strategy mistakes?!

Mark

13th July 2009, 13:50

And people were saying this season was boring!

Ranger

13th July 2009, 14:01

And people were saying this season was boring!

Well it was... after Turkey! ;)

stevie_gerrard

14th July 2009, 11:15

Button will be desperate to win a race soon again, because if he is not to win again this season, I can't see him holding on to his world championship lead.

555-04Q2

14th July 2009, 11:44

I dont see Button winning this years WDC title. The competition has caught up to and passed the Brawn GP cars.

ShiftingGears

14th July 2009, 12:14

I have to say I hope Webber wins the title - that would be amazing. Will Button lose it? Too early to call.

Sonic

14th July 2009, 12:23

Just a matter of time until Ferrari, Williams and McLaren will be all beating the BrawnGPs.

Bar the mac's, they just did - Massa P3, Rosberg P4, Button P5.

As it goes I think that fact will help him. Ferarri can't be far from winning again, Williams surely can get a podium on current form and Mac might just have turned a corner. With 5 teams fighting over the top 8 places (assuming no single one team dominates the final half) it could be much harder to close the gap.

markabilly

14th July 2009, 12:31

For me, I think that someone with 6 wins, fails to finish the next two races, and webber finishes second in the next two races and is leading the wdc, with only one race victory, well, bernie is right, the current point system is screwed towards high finishes and not victories (11 races, one guy with 6 wins and a guy with 1 win [or two wins as with vetttels) and a bunch of podium and near podium finishes beats him.......

Big Ben

14th July 2009, 12:36

For me, I think that someone with 6 wins, fails to finish the next two races, and webber finishes second in the next two races and is leading the wdc, with only one race victory, well, bernie is right, the current point system is screwed towards high finishes and not victories (11 races, one guy with 6 wins and a guy with 1 win and a bunch of podium and near podium finishes beats him.......

The medal system is not any better either. I think the 10,6,4.... was much much much better.

ST205GT4

14th July 2009, 12:52

Looks like it's going to be a more interesting second half of the season. I think it will be a close run thing for Jensen.

jens

14th July 2009, 20:52

Well, Button has still got a healthy lead in the championship despite two unsuccessful races. Red Bull needs to be basically flawless in the second half of the season to catch up and Brawn may have better weekends than the last two. We will see.

emporer_k

14th July 2009, 22:38

On current form Button is going to be doing some seroious looking over his shoulder in terms of his WDC lead.

ClarkFan

14th July 2009, 23:12

The medal system is not any better either. I think the 10,6,4.... was much much much better.

:up: Or, if you want to pay points through 8th, go to 15-9-6-5-4-3-2-1.

Winning is defninitely underrated in the current system. If you look at the 10-6-4 system, 3rd place got only 40% of the winning points. Under the current system, 5th does as well as 3rd did under the old one. Why risk the pass? :\

Before Max and Bernie got all caught up in the Metal System, they should have just gone back to the old scoring weights to see what happens. Of course, they adopted the current system after Schumacher clinched the title so early in 2002, but that year he would have smoked the field in a 10-9-9-9-9-9 scoring system.

ClarkFan

Triumph

16th July 2009, 21:22

I think things will start to go Jenson's way again in the forthcoming races, considering that the conditions are likely to benefit the car more so than in the previous two races.

harvick#1

16th July 2009, 21:28

all it takes is 2 mechanical failures or accidents, and vettel or Webber winning 2 races and the season is on once again, so the season is never over until its confirmed

ioan

16th July 2009, 21:32

all it takes is 2 mechanical failures or accidents, and vettel or Webber winning 2 races and the season is on once again, so the season is never over until its confirmed

RedBull needs to turn the pressure on in order to push the Brwans to make mistakes.
We saw it last week that when things don't go their way they even make strategy mistakes.

With Ferrari, McLaren, Williams and Renault having the speed to bother and even beat the Brawns, RedBull are having the situation turn in their favor, however one thing I would do is to bring the STR up to full speed in order to put one more car in a position to fight the Brawns.

gloomyDAY

16th July 2009, 23:04

ioan

16th July 2009, 23:30

I don't think bringing STR into the mix would be wise. RBR would have to spend time and resources on the sister team, which at this point in time would stagnate or at the very least hinder RBR. Red Bull drivers cannot leave a grand prix without standing on the podium. Just turn on the heat! Eventually, Jensen will get too hot and get out of the kitchen.

The RBR and STR cars are practically the same cars with different engines.
There is no redesign needed, they just need to produce 2 more of each new aero part they have for RedBull and bolt it on the STR cars.

Valve Bounce

17th July 2009, 00:38

There is one aspect that most here seem to neglect in their arguments. Both Ferrari and McLaren can improve to the extent that they can win races and thus affect RBR's chances of winning the championship.

While I agree that the championship race is still open, bunsen does appear to have an enormous lead, and if they are consistent, I think Brawn will be hard to beat.

harvick#1

17th July 2009, 00:49

The RBR and STR cars are practically the same cars with different engines.
There is no redesign needed, they just need to produce 2 more of each new aero part they have for RedBull and bolt it on the STR cars.

I dont see STR up front because they dont have the drivers to do it

ioan

17th July 2009, 10:02

I dont see STR up front because they dont have the drivers to do it

Buemi was running in the top 8 in the first few races, not a bad driver IMO.

ioan

17th July 2009, 10:04

There is one aspect that most here seem to neglect in their arguments. Both Ferrari and McLaren can improve to the extent that they can win races and thus affect RBR's chances of winning the championship.

Ferrari has given up on 2009 and are focusing on the next season.
If the ideas they come up for next year can be used on this year's car they will probably throw them in, but the F60 will not be developed any further.

The 2010 contender design is well underway and a 60% scale model will be tested in the wind tunnel by the end of this month!

555-04Q2

17th July 2009, 10:39

AndyL

17th July 2009, 10:48

There is one aspect that most here seem to neglect in their arguments. Both Ferrari and McLaren can improve to the extent that they can win races and thus affect RBR's chances of winning the championship.

Or, they could pass Brawn in the development race but not catch up to Red Bull, and end up helping Red Bull by taking points off Brawn - as Massa did in Germany and Britain. I'm really looking forward to finding out how it pans out... if this is, as some have said, a boring season, I could live with every year being this boring :)

V12

17th July 2009, 16:31

The pessimist in me says Button will get overhauled by one or both Red Bulls before the seasons end.

The optimist in me doesn't exist.

The rationalist in me says he'll hang on...... Just.

Agree with those who say that even with a Toro Rosso with the equivalent mods, I don't think Buemi and whoever replaces Bourdais would spoil things at the sharp end - a good fistful of points yes, threatening to back up a Red Bull 1-2-3-4, no.

I think what could swing it in Red Bull's favour funnily enough is if either Vettel or Webber (but NOT both) have a couple of atrocious weekends forcing the team to get behind one of them. The past two races they've taken a couple of points off each other that could be very crucial come the end of the season...

markabilly

18th July 2009, 11:57

I disagree Valve. If you look at the margin of victory Webber had at the last race, with a drive through, the RB cars are way faster than the Ferrari's etc.
I agree as to race pace, on that track and with that track temperature and those tires

strange that the season may come down to the track temperature favoring which car the most number of times over any other factor :confused:

Saint Devote

19th July 2009, 01:12

I think Button as a driver still has the advantage. He has demonstrated driving ability that none of the others have - consistently.

I think that Vettel was at least somewhat shocked how Webber whacked him for a six at his home race - and the question is whether he has a "glass jaw" under pressure as the current world champion Hamilton has?

Suddenly I think if not Button then the most likely other is Webber because for the first time, as has Button, Webber gas a car that actually works. And I would judge that just since Silverstone is Webber "himself".

Remember that ability of his since Minardi days to produce an amazingly quick lap?

Personally I like both Button and Webber immensely. They are the way f1 racing drivers ought to be and have been. I wish BOTH could win :-]

But I am a Jenson supporter and have been for years.

ioan

19th July 2009, 10:47

Personally I like both Button and Webber immensely.

I think this was obvious from your post, no need to state it! :laugh:

Robinho

19th July 2009, 12:33

in sincereley hope that Button can hang on, i think RBR do now have the faster car in pretty much all conditions, but i don't think Brawn are as far away ast he last couple of races have looked, and i don't think Button will go the rest of the year without winning again.

the form of Ferrari, McLaren and maybe Renault and Toyota could have a say if they are able to take points off one or both of the current fornt runners, and the battle between the 2 red bulls could be enough to keep Button in front, although i do think RBR will take the constructors and by some margin.

the next few races are key, if Brawn can win one or at least stay in teh fight for the top 3 positions that might just be enough, but if Webber or Vettel win the next 3 they will have the momentum - if they split them between the RBR's that proably won't be enough.

also if the RBR's lose consistency they will not make up the ground, Vettel has crashed out of 2 races already and Webber wasn't quick enough earlier in the year.

all that said, and whilst i do hope that Button hangs on and takes the title, if he can't then i would not be upset by either Webber or Vettel winning, i do like both of them immensley

jens

26th July 2009, 16:45

Ohhh... The end of the season is going to be sooo exciting. Brawn has "lost it" and Red Bull isn't invulnerable either.

What can't be underestimated, is that despite lack of pace JB still has a clear points-advantage, so he can afford "average" performances, while Red Bull can't.

Red Bull simply has to score big points with both cars until the end of the season. Let's imagine if in the next race it will be Webber's turn to retire, Vettel is 2nd and Button... 6th. Then the points would look like: JB - 73, SV - 55, MW - 51.5. Button's lead would still be basically the same and despite faster car RB won't have benefitted much. Hence Red Bull's task is not easy at all - they have to take the ultimate maximum from each and every race.

BDunnell

26th July 2009, 16:58

Triumph

26th July 2009, 17:25

I think Jenson Button will be fine. McLaren are now looking strong, so I think they will take the edge off the Red Bull challenge, leaving Jenson able to get by with relatively average results.

christophulus

26th July 2009, 17:27

I think Jenson Button will be fine. McLaren are now looking strong, so I think they will take the edge off the Red Bull challenge, leaving Jenson able to get by with relatively average results.

Agreed. I think Red Bull have to get behind one driver soon though - Vettel beating Webber next time out is going to really mess up their chance of a drivers title, although I think Red Bull have the constructors championship in the bag.

F1boat

26th July 2009, 18:09

I dunno. Red Bull seems much faster, but things change quickly this year. But BGP need to come closer to Red Bull... they can't wait for McLaren to do their job...

jens

26th July 2009, 18:21

Well, I don't think Red Bull has been suddenly leapfrogged by McLaren and Ferrari and won't be able to win any more like some seem to suggest - I think RB will achieve more wins this year. Hungary was more like a one-off. Of course the same was said about Brawn in Britain, but Red Bull's financial situation is healthier and I think they can keep up their development pace. :)

markabilly

26th July 2009, 19:22

At the current rate and if webber keeps up with the high place finishes, Button will run out of points despite his early numerous victories

I would always prefer to be the hunter rather than the hunted.

Tazio

26th July 2009, 19:29

He'll lose it like a drunken freshman at her first Frat party! :dozey:
He's Toast.

CNR

26th July 2009, 21:34

the last 3 races button has got 9 points mark has got 24 if it keeps like this mark will win by 16.5 points

Saint Devote

26th July 2009, 21:59

Predicting the future has always been foolish.

I hope it will be Button, BUt Webber would be a great other.

Both at least look and act like real men not like that little ballerina Hamilton.

ClarkFan

27th July 2009, 00:47

I think Jenson Button will be fine. McLaren are now looking strong, so I think they will take the edge off the Red Bull challenge, leaving Jenson able to get by with relatively average results.
His problem is that recent results have been sub-average for a title contender. Brawn doesn't need to be faster than the Red Bulls for Button to win - there still is that 18.5 point advantage. But he does need to be able to get into the mix with the Red Bulls to defend his standing, and has not had the pace to do that the last 3 races. The "cold track" argument looks dead - Brawn needs to get faster.

ClarkFan

Ranger

27th July 2009, 01:24

Button 70 points
Webber 51.5 points (+18.5)
Vettel 47 points (+23)
Barrichello 44 points (+26)

I'll be extremely surprised if Brawn win another race this year.

christophulus

27th July 2009, 10:10

Interview with Button on the Autosport website

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/77369

It seems the Brawn needs track temperatures of over 40C for the tyres to "work" - other than Valencia and Abu Dhabi you can't guarantee hot weather for any of the remaining tracks, we've seen rain at Monza, Spa, Suzuka..

ShiftingGears

27th July 2009, 10:16

I'll be surprised if he doesn't lose it.

What I want to know is what the points gap between Vettel and Webber will be before they decide on team orders.

Mark

27th July 2009, 11:55

I'll be surprised if he doesn't lose it.

What I want to know is what the points gap between Vettel and Webber will be before they decide on team orders.

I think Red Bull will have had it in their minds to support Vettel before now, but since Webber is ahead they can't do that!

ShiftingGears

27th July 2009, 12:09

I think Red Bull will have had it in their minds to support Vettel before now, but since Webber is ahead they can't do that!

Well Webber's scored the most out of anyone the last five rounds, so Vettel needs a response.

Saint Devote

28th July 2009, 03:23

Well Jenson stated yesterday that the temperature issue is not the primary and there is a more fundamental problem.

With seven races left, if he can win even one more race but score points he could be okay.

In his first championship Schumacher won 6 or so races during the first half of the season also. Then went on to win 2 in the second half - there were however 3 less races during 1994 than today.

Valve Bounce

28th July 2009, 04:09

Bunsen needs both Hamilton and Kimi to take points off the Webster, as well as score some good points himself.

ArrowsFA1

28th July 2009, 08:19

Bunsen needs both Hamilton and Kimi to take points off the Webster, as well as score some good points himself.
I can see the likes of Renault, McLaren and Ferrari challenging more strongly, and if that happens then it's going to be tough for both Brawn, to defend their lead, and for Red Bull, to chase them down.

It's going to be a fascinating second half of the season and I wouldn't like to predict who is going to come out on top but at the moment, things don't look too good for Brawn :dozey:

Mark

28th July 2009, 08:22

Yep, have to say, if Button continues only scoring one or two points per race, that lead will disappear pretty quickly. He was only saved in Hungary because Vettel retired, otherwise he'd be looking at a much bigger loss.

As it stands he can probably afford to finish behind the Red Bulls and still take the championship, but as Arrows said, it's not just the Red Bulls he has to worry about now, it seems McLaren, Ferrari and Renault have gotten ahead of Brawn too.

Dave B

28th July 2009, 08:41

Button's saving grave might be the resurgence of McLaren and Ferrari. If they can keep taking points away from Red Bull then it might be enough to protect Jenson's 18.5 point lead.

Add to this that no clear number-one has emerged at Red Bull. They can't afford to favour one driver, whereas the time has surely come for Brawn to put their weight behind Button at Barrichello's expense.

It's not time to panic just yet, but Button does need a solid run of podiums - or better yet some more victories - before he can start relaxing.

ioan

28th July 2009, 09:04

As it stands he can probably afford to finish behind the Red Bulls and still take the championship, but as Arrows said, it's not just the Red Bulls he has to worry about now, it seems McLaren, Ferrari and Renault have gotten ahead of Brawn too.

Add Williams to that list.

ioan

28th July 2009, 09:05

...whereas the time has surely come for Brawn to put their weight behind Button at Barrichello's expense.

I thought that was already obvious after 5 races.

Dave B

28th July 2009, 09:13

I thought that was already obvious after 5 races.
The team may already have subconsciously done this, that's a much wider discussion. Some feel that Jenson was always the favoured son.

But surely now comes the point where it needs to be made official: if Barrichello is ever ahead on-track, team tactics have to come into play. Which could be tricky: Rubens has stated catagorically that he'll not stand for them, but he's wise enough to understand that he goes into the second half of the season as the #2 driver and has to play the team game.

Ent

28th July 2009, 11:41

The problem is that McLaren, Ferrari, Renault, Toyota and Williams have jumped ahead of Brawn, while the Red Bull can still get podiums. If that continues, Button's lead will disappear very, very quickly. Either Brawn has to get back in front of several of those teams, or Red Bull have to drop further back, otherwise we might just see a RBR driver as this years WDC.

christophulus

28th July 2009, 11:54

Well Jenson stated yesterday that the temperature issue is not the primary and there is a more fundamental problem.

True, but ultimately low temperatures = no grip for the Brawns, so they need to fix it quickly because I can't see many of the tracks remaining being as hot as they need. It's a bizarre problem, I don't think any of the other cars require such a specific temperature range to be effective.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/8171976.stm

There were moments during the race where the track temperature crept beyond 40C and at these moments Button would suddenly find grip and go quite quickly.

His best lap, set during one of these extra-hot spells, was only 0.2 seconds slower than the fastest set by the race winner Lewis Hamilton.

But usually the temperature of the surface would hover in the high 30s and in these conditions Button's tyre temperatures would fall back below the critical minimum and he would again be slow as the rear tyres grained.

The correlation was almost switch-like.