VERY early 2015 prediction thoughts!

[jens]

Having a bit of a sleepless night and decided to complete my 2015 F1 season prediction.

Soo...
A very conservative prediction it has to be said. I have done many predictions, but I can't remember a prediction, which was basically a carbon copy of the previous year. But that's how the flow of this season went.

Quite an incredible fight for P4 with lots of drivers within a shot. A bit like 2014 was, but in this case even a tighter battle.

 1. 44	L. Hamilton	GBR	Mercedes    Mercedes	366
 2. 6	N. Rosberg	GER	Mercedes    Mercedes	327
 3. 3	D. Ricciardo	AUS	Red Bull    Renault	235
 4. 77	V. Bottas	FIN	Williams    Mercedes	148
 5. 5	S. Vettel	GER	Ferrari	    Ferrari   	147
 6. 26	D. Kvyat	RUS	Red Bull    Renault	146
 7. 14	F. Alonso	SPA	McLaren	    Honda	127
 8. 7	K. Räikkönen	FIN	Ferrari     Ferrari	110
 9. 19	F. Massa	BRA	Williams    Mercedes    104
10. 22	J. Button	GBR	McLaren	    Honda	 85
11. 27	N. Hülkenberg	GER	Force India Mercedes     67
12. 8	R. Grosjean	FRA	Lotus	    Mercedes	 66
13. 11	S. Pérez        MEX	Force India Mercedes	 39
14. 13	P. Maldonado	VEN	Lotus	    Mercedes	 28
15. 12	F. Nasr*	BRA	Sauber	    Ferrari	  9
16. 55	C. Sainz Jr*	SPA	STR	    Renault	  8
17. 33	M. Verstappen*	NED	STR         Renault	  6
18. 9	M. Ericsson	SWE	Sauber	    Ferrari	  2

And also constructors:
1. Mercedes – 693
2. Red Bull – 381
3. Ferrari – 257
4. Williams – 252
5. McLaren – 212
6. Force India – 106
7. Lotus – 94
8. Toro Rosso – 14
9. Sauber – 11

Podium finishers race-by-race. All in all 20 races. Korea doesn't happen. Though Russia does, even though I suspect it can get very critical due to political situation and Korea might replace it...

Aus  HAM RIC VET
Mal  HAM ROS RIC
Chn  ROS BOT HAM
Bah  ROS HAM MAS
Spa  HAM ROS GRO
Mon  RIC ALO RAI
Can  HAM BOT HUL
Aut  ROS RIC BOT
Gbr  HAM RIC VET
Ger  ROS KVY MAS
Hun  HAM ROS RIC
Bel  HAM ROS RIC
Ita  ROS HAM BOT
Sin  ALO VET GRO
Jpn  HAM RIC BOT
Rus  HAM ROS KVY
Usa  HAM ROS RIC
Mex  ROS RIC KVY
Bra  HAM VET RAI
Uae  ROS HAM BOT

Some comments:

Mercedes – slightly reduced advantage, but still good enough to get consistent 1-2s without others getting a look in. Though if a Merc hits trouble they'll have a tougher time to move up the field. Loses wins only on street circuits (Monaco, Singapore) due to car issues.

Red Bull – confidently second best, Kvyat slightly improves in the second half of the season.

Ferrari – pretty decent on street circuits and in the wet, where all the podiums come from. Struggles on faster circuits, especially Monza and Montreal. Slight improvement over 2014.

Williams – slightly going backwards with factory-powered teams (RBR, Ferrari, McLaren) getting slightly better grip on new regs. Still very good with lots of podiums.

McLaren – suffers from several reliability problems especially early on. Otherwise a solid points-runner. Alonso puts in his traditional exceptional season and moves that car way up in the point standings, including winning the most stunning race of the year, the Singapore Grand Prix.

Force India – most of the time fights for minor points, excels on faster circuits like Montreal and Monza. Hülkenberg finally gets his maiden podium. Otherwise business as usual.

Lotus – car, which shows promise with Grosjean getting two podiums. But the chassis is very inconsistent, doesn't go well in the wet and on several circuits, plus they throw away a fair amount of points.

Toro Rosso – complete rookie line-up holds them somewhat back especially early in the year. Sometimes gets points.

Sauber – still at the back, but on odd occasion can mix it with others. Nasr's impressive P7 in messy Brazilian GP helps him above Toro Rosso drivers in the points.

[Triumph]

My prediction is that it's pretty much guaranteed that Lewis will win the championship again. He had to fight back from significant disadvantages three times during last season, so even assuming equal bad luck in 2015, he'll do it again. Assuming less bad luck he'll make it look easy.

[rjbetty]

13.ITALY
Grid
Ferraris set the exact same time.

1.Rosberg
2.Hamilton +0.162
3.Bottas +0.212
4.Alonso +0.216
5.Button +0.365
6.Massa +0.845
7.Grosjean +0.850
8.Ricciardo +0.851
9.Verstappen +1.211
10.Kvyat +1.289
11.Raikkonen +1.373
12.Vettel +1.373
13.Hulkenberg +1.572
14.Maldonado +1.689
15.Sainz Jr +1.814
16.Perez +2.369
17.Ericsson +3.097
18.Nasr +3.179

GO! Bottas absolutely flies into the lead, followed by... Max Verstappen!! Hulkenberg is up to 4th and Sainz Jr 9th.

Rosberg gets by Verstappen while Hamilton takes Hulk. Kvyat, Raikkonen and Vettel are only 13th, 15th and 17th...

On lap 4, Hamilton on a better strategy passes Rosberg into turn 1, only for Nico to slipstream him back into the next chicane! Hamilton gets him for good next lap. Ricciardo is only 13th while Bottas leads by 1.5sec. Ferraris are now up to 14th and 15th (sigh!) and move up further when Sainz Jr retires.

Hamilton has caught Bottas now and passes him on lap 7, while Max Verstappen is still running 6th though has Grosjean behind him. Grosjean passes him only for Max to repass! By the end of the lap Button is now with them too.

Hamilton pits extremely early on lap 10, dropping to 12th. Ferraris are just behind and by now are 30+ sec off the pace...

On lap 12 Rosberg finally gets past Bottas for the lead, while Perez pits. Hamilton brilliantly takes both Ricciardo and Hulkenberg on the back straight at the same time, only to immediately put a wheel wrong and crash at Parabolica - and Lewis Hamilton is sensationally out of the Italian GP!

The 2 Ferraris are close throughout, and Vettel gets past Raikkonen. Hulkenberg spins out at turn 1, and Raikkonen retakes his team-mate, and finally breaks into the top 10! Meanwhile, Alonso in 3rd is quietly getting on with the job, just 4.5sec behind Rosberg on lap 19, and catching Bottas. Massa is 4th while Grosjean and Button are having a great scrap for 5th, taking and retaking each other.

Into lap 22, and Alonso gets Bottas for 2nd. Maldonado then has an enormous crash in Curva Grande, ripping several wheels off his car. Rosberg and Massa pit that lap, exiting 3rd (exactly in front of Grosjean) and 9th. Vettel has got Raikkonen for 10th and has edged a gap out now.

Everyone has made their final stops after lap 33 or so. On lap 30, Bottas stops from the lead, exiting just before Alonso, and now 7.6sec behind Rosberg. Sensationally he starts catching Rosberg by quite some knots and the gap is 5.1sec after lap 34. Verstappen retires from his good race, having run in the top 10 throughout.

The gap for the lead reduces to 4.8 4.5 3.9 then 3.8sec over the next 4 laps. This is exciting and Bottas is doing a great job.

Then it's 3.6 then 3.4 as Rosberg comes to lap Raikkonen in 10th on lap 38. Vettel has opened a gap in 9th of over 8sec by now, but suddenly... He spins off at turn 1! Vettel has lost 45sec and is now 11th ahead of only the Saubers.

Bottas continues closing the gap to 3.2sec. On lap 40 he is held up by Raikkonen in the Parabolica when it's his turn to lap his fellow Finn. Even so, he still closes on Rosberg to 2.8sec! Bottas has continued to lap faster than Rosberg every single lap after the stops. Interestingly, Alonso in 3rd is maintaining an 8.1sec gap to Rosberg, with almost identical times continuously.

Bottas takes another tenth off the lead, but a backmarker is coming into view...

Button has oh-so-gradually caught Grosjean for 5th, and while both come to lap Vettel into the Parabolica, Button nabs it. Now Bottas has got the gap down to 2.3sec! With 11 laps to go this is exciting!

The backmarker is cleared on lap 43 by both drivers, Bottas gaining a big slipstream down the back straight. Now the gap is 1.5sec!! Bottas can see Rosberg in front of him clearly now.

Ericsson retires in front of the leaders at the entry to Ascari, and Bottas gets the gap down another tenth, to 1.4sec. Rosberg getting out ahead of Grosjean by a tiny margin could prove critical to him holding on to the lead. I really don't know what is going to happen here with 9 laps left, but I'm loving it, and am going to watch the rest of the race in full just like a real one, without accelerating time.

There is a panic as I accidentally press the power off button, but I am able to wake it up and continue the race, so I save it, having worried I'd just lost the race!

OMGoodness the gap is now just 0.9sec!!

After the next lap, lap 46 of 53, it's just 0.6sec!! I am worried Bottas' tyres will go off. Rosberg is tantalisingly just out of reach for a slipstream. It's not over yet. They are about to catch a backmarker which can change everything!

Seconds after I type this, Rosberg is slowed slightly by the backmarker coming out of the second Lesmo, but Bottas slipstreams past him, and... He goes for Rosberg! Down the outside, they are side by side heading down to the Ascari, and Bottas gets him round the outside to lead the Italian GP!!

But it's not over as Rosberg is all over him down the main straight, 6 laps to go, and he retakes Bottas into turn 1!

While these amazing events are unfolding, Button is quietly edging up to Felipe Massa in 4th, and is now less than 2sec behind. Alonso is still 3rd, less than 7sec off the lead.

With 5 laps to go, Rosberg leads Bottas by 0.6sec. But there's another backmarker coming into view - a Sauber. After that, the road will be clear till the end of the race.

Rosberg catches the Sauber, Felipe Nasr, as they are going through the Ascari, and slipstreams past on the back straight. But then, crazily, he tries to retake Rosberg into Parabolica, holding up Bottas badly! Now Bottas is 1.1sec behind with 4 laps to go.

On this lap, lap 50, Grosjean retires from 6th just out of the Parabolica, with the leaders not far behind. But he is removed before he can affect them. With 3 laps to go, the gap is 0.9sec. Daniil Kvyat is maybe 7sec ahead in 7th, but it looks like the leaders might not catch up to him in time, so the race should be safe still.

Vettel has moved back up into the points following Grosjean's late retirement, and there are only 11 runners left (including all the backmarkers who have all retired). Un-noticed amongst all this, Button has got by Massa for 4th.

And after lap 51, it looks like my fears may be confirmed as Bottas laps 0.047sec slower than Rosberg, the only lap apart from the lap Bottas was retaken, that he was slower than Rosberg since the pitstops. The gap is 1.0sec.

Bottas is faster again after lap 52, but only by 0.038sec. The gap is now 0.9sec - and this is the last lap!!

Bottas isn't quite close enough for a slipstream, and sure enough, Rosberg laps 0.080sec quicker to take the chequered flag, just +1.058sec clear. There is seeming poetic justice as Felipe Nasr retires with engine failure on the last lap, as Alonso takes the flag in 3rd. Meanwhile, Vettel finishes 35.2sec behind Raikkonen having lost 45sec earlier... Perez continues his run of consecutive points finishes having scored none at all in the entire first 9 races of 16 in the season. There are only 10 finishers!

We will never quite know if Bottas would have won if Felipe Nasr hadn't ruined things for him. It will be one of those questions always unanswered, but for me, this was one of the most thrilling races on Grand Prix 2 of all time. A classic to go down in history. Next is Japan, which is usually quite an an interesting race.

Result
1.Rosberg
2.Bottas +1
3.Alonso +7
4.Button +42
5.Massa +45
6.Ricciardo +1:05
7.Kvyat +1:22
8.Raikkonen -1lap
9.Perez -1lap
10.Vettel -1lap
DNF.Nasr -3laps ENGINE
DNF.Grosjean -5laps

Fastest Lap: Hamilton



And now for the championship standings with 3 races left:

1.Hamilton 266pts
2.Rosberg 184pts
3.Bottas 150pts
4.Ricciardo 133pts
5.Alonso 117pts
6.Button 102pts
7.Kvyat 73pts
8.Grosjean 63pts
9.Massa 54pts
10.Vettel 43pts
11.Raikkonen 38pts
12.Maldonado 29pts
13.Hulkenberg 20pts
14.Verstappen 17pts
15.Sainz Jr 17pts
16.Perez 7pts

1.Mercedes 450pts
2.McLaren 219pts
3.Red Bull 206pts
4.Williams 204pts
5.Lotus 92pts
6.Ferrari 81pts
7.Toro Rosso 34pts
8.Force India 27pts
9.Sauber

[Tazio]

13.ITALY


3.Bottas 150pts

9.Massa 54pts

Interesting fantasy mate, but Felipe will be much closer to VB than this......Much closer!

[jens]

Interesting fantasy mate, but Felipe will be much closer to VB than this......Much closer!

Having played computer games several years ago, I know they can throw out fairly inconsistent and imbalanced results. Sometimes people point out, how unlucky driver A or B has been. Well, then look at what games can do with its "random factor". This Rosberg season also indicates it as he had 3-4 DNFs in a row I think?

Otherwise not a bad season, rj.

[rjbetty]

Interesting fantasy mate, but Felipe will be much closer to VB than this......Much closer!

I know! I'm very aware of this. I haven't nailed everything perfectly, as I expect if the car is as competitive as it is in the game, Felipe should get on the podium.

[rjbetty]

Having played computer games several years ago, I know they can throw out fairly inconsistent and imbalanced results. Sometimes people point out, how unlucky driver A or B has been. Well, then look at what games can do with its "random factor". This Rosberg season also indicates it as he had 3-4 DNFs in a row I think?

Otherwise not a bad season, rj.

Yeah Rosberg crashed out of the first race, which I don't see happeneing in real life. He also crashed in Bahrain but survived. Then followed that with 3DNFs in a row - all mechanical I believe. Unbelievable. I promise you, enyone who understands Grand Prix 2 and GP2 Edit knows you can't manipulate it like that even if you want to.

It is meant to be as true to reality as possible, and hopefully totally devoid of bias, if that's possible.

[rjbetty]

14.JAPAN
Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.287
3.Kvyat +0.762
4.Ricciardo +0.803
5.Massa +1.038
6.Button +1.154
7.Grosjean +1.347
8.Bottas +1.502
9.Maldonado +1.622
10.Verstappen +2.039
11.Raikkonen +2.111
12.Hulkenberg +2.336
13.Alonso +2.349
14.Perez +2.357
15.Vettel +2.502
16.Sainz Jr +2.696
17.Ericsson +2.851
18.Nasr +4.636

Away they go! Rosberg shoots into the lead while Kvyat drives outside of Hamilton into 2nd. Kvyat shines again by keeping up with the Mercs. Hamilton gets past and into the lead, then flies at least a second a lap quicker than anybody, on a good strategy.

Maldonado and Bottas collide and are out.

Overtaking is very difficult here, as bad as Monaco, so Vettel suffers.

After the final stops, Massa is 7th behind a great fight for 4th led by Grosjean, Ricciardo and Button. Massa gets past them all!

Not that much else happens so Hamilton manages to win again. Except Button makes an opportunistic move on the last lap to get Ricciardo. Poor Vettel could only manage 12th after in qualifying, getting held up by Hamilton who was on his outlap, then locking his tyres badly into the hairpin. He looked on similar pace to Ricciardo who qualified 4th. He was only 7-8sec behind Kimi in the end...

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +24
3.Kvyat +56
4.Massa +1:16
5.Grosjean +1:24
6.Button +1:25
7.Ricciardo +1:26
8.Alonso -1lap
9.Raikkonen -1lap
10.Hulkenberg -1lap
11.Verstappen -1lap
12.Vettel -1lap
13.Ericsson -1lap

Fastest Lap: Rosberg





15.UNITED STATES
Grid
1.Hamilton
2.Ricciardo +0.408
3.Button +0.520
4.Vettel +0.526
5.Rosberg +0.640
6.Raikkonen +0.971
7.Kvyat +1.117
8.Maldonado +1.291
9.Perez +1.958
10.Alonso +1.961
11.Massa +1.992
12.Grosjean +2.002
13.Bottas +2.203
14.Verstappen +2.280
15.Ericsson +2.356
16.Nasr +2.561
17.Hulkenberg +2.885
18.Sainz Jr +3.596

Jenson Button is the only retirement, early on with an engine failure. Vettel gets his and Ferrari's best result of the season, qualifying, finishing, and fastest lapping 4th.

Result
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +1
3.Ricciardo +22
4.Vettel +37
5.Bottas +1:07
6.Alonso +1:08
7.Raikkonen +1:08
8.Maldonado -1lap
9.Kvyat -1lap
10.Perez -1lap
11.Grosjean -1lap
12.Massa -1lap
13.Verstappen -1lap
14.Sainz Jr -1lap
15.Nasr -2laps
16.Ericsson -2laps
17.Hulkenberg -2laps

Fastest Lap: Rosberg





16.BRAZIL
Grid
1.Rosberg
2.Hamilton +0.191
3.Kvyat +0.479
4.Button +0.480
5.Bottas +1.002
6.Raikkonen +1.130
7.Alonso +1.132
8.Ricciardo +1.139
9.Massa +1.210
10.Sainz Jr +1.224
11.Maldonado +1.576
12.Verstappen +1.626
13.Grosjean +1.822
14.Nasr +2.304
15.Vettel +2.305
16.Ericsson +2.309
17.Hulkenberg +2.715
18.Perez +3.491

Some very closely matched times there indeed.

Race: Button shoots into the lead on a good strategy! Kvyat retires on lap 3, then on lap 10, Vettel is out while trying to climb up the field, capping off a frustrating season.

Button pits on lap 17 and after a while is stuck behind Massa who is 3rd. Rosberg leads Hamilton consistently by around 1sec. Button gets through on lap 27.

Ericsson has now retired too while Button is 25sec off the lead.

Hamilton has a major problem a few laps later as he loses over 20sec!

Button gamely holds on to the lead after Rosberg pits, and keeps holding him off, with help from backmarkers. Button holds the lead all the way to his final stop on lap 46. He drops to 3rd but then starts to catch the delayed Hamilton!

Button tries hard and stays with Hamilton but isn't really able to close or overtake, so that's that.

Result
1.Rosberg
2.Hamilton
3.Button
4.Bottas
5.Alonso
6.Ricciardo
7.Massa
8.Raikkonen
9.Sainz
10.Maldonado
11.Grosjean
12.Verstappen
13.Hulkenberg
14.Nasr
15.Perez


So that's it - here are the final standings

1.Hamilton - 334pts
2.Rosberg - 245pts
3.Bottas - 172pts
4.Ricciardo - 162pts
5.Alonso - 139pts
6.Button - 125pts
7.Kvyat - 90pts
8.Grosjean - 73pts
9.Massa - 72pts
10.Vettel - 55pts
11.Raikkonen - 50pts
12.Maldonado - 34pts
13.Hulkenberg - 21pts
14.Sainz - 19pts
15.Verstappen - 17pts
16.Perez - 8pts
17.Nasr - best finish 11th
18.Ericsson - best finish 11th

1.Mercedes - 579pts
2.McLaren - 264pts
3.Red Bull - 252pts
4.Williams - 244pts
5.Lotus - 107pts
6.Ferrari - 105pts
7.Toro Rosso - 36pts
8.Force India - 29pts
9.Sauber

[rjbetty]

And now for the performance figures, in % (which means slightly more than 1sec per lap, per percent (haha) i.e. given that an F1 lap averages about 90sec. 1% = about 1.1sec

Qualifying
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.02
3.Alonso +0.93
4.Bottas +1.07
5.Button +1.12
6.Ricciardo +1.14
7.Massa +1.26
8.Kvyat +1.30
9.Vettel +1.54
10.Grosjean +1.73
11.Raikkonen +1.80
12.Maldonado +2.00
13.Verstappen +2.25
14.Sainz +2.29
15.Hulkenberg +2.48
16.Perez +2.69
17.Ericsson +3.80
18.Nasr +3.99

Race
1.Hamilton
2.Rosberg +0.09
3.Alonso +1.03
4.Bottas +1.09
5.Button +1.12
6.Ricciardo +1.19
7.Massa +1.48
8.Kvyat +1.52
9.Vettel +1.72
10.Grosjean +1.73
11.Raikkonen +2.07
12.Maldonado +2.20
13.Hulkenberg +2.24
14.Perez +2.30
15.Verstappen +2.42
16.Sainz +2.50
17.Ericsson +4.16
18.Nasr +4.46


I'm not saying I got the team-mate gaps completely right at all. In fact I want to run a second season with some modifications. But these figures kind of show what I'm guessing the team's performance might be like in 2015.


Conclusions
1.Mercedes
As you can see, a similar qual and race pattern continues between the two drivers. It was just random (though I am guessing the way GP2 is programmed it isn't truly random, but there seem to be several sets of patterns that the game can 'choose' between performance, reliability etc The permutations of which can be many. Don't forget cars can be delayed by backmarkers in qualifying. I keep qualifying at just 20mins, so some drivers get blocked. This helps simulate real life grids which are fairly often a little mixed up due to penalties etc. I feel I've got this at a pretty realistic level.

It was just the way the cards fell that Rosberg had all 3 of Mercedes mechanical failures - in a row at that! Otherwise it was close. I am guessing Hamilton may have a very small increase in performance over 2014, with title confidence plus more experience of the team and car. Hamilton outqualified Rosberg 10-6.

2.McLaren-Honda
Wow! 2nd overall shows Button was the right choice indeed! Amazingly Button outqualified Alonso quite substantially - but this was because Alonso was compromised several times. I'm expecting a little more unreliability with a new engine than other teams. I'm assuming the Honda engine will be somewhere about 20bhp short of Mercedes, and ahead of Renault and Ferrari. A lot of performance depends on the engine, to state the obvious maybe.

3.Red Bull
A real shock that Kvyat actually started ahead of Ricciardo 9-7! But then he did outqualify Vergne 12-7 in his rookie season. Circumstances were largely to blame too. Both drivers got a pole - the only non-Mercedes cars to do so. The points table is a fair reflection that Ricciardo was definitely the better racer, though Kvyat lost out several times in top positions.

4.Williams
I'm guessing Williams will consolidate a little but fall slightly off the pace of Mercedes who edge even further ahead. The team are more consistent but with less high highs and not so bad lows. Bottas is a fair reflection of this though maybe I should have lessened his race pace slightly. This is because in test seasons, Williams never seemed to do that well. It's something to do with the engine vs car/driver performance. I'm not sure the GP2Edit calculates the figures quite correctly. You see, I modify engine power to also include straightline speed from the car as there's no other way to simulate this. Williams is the highest, but I think maybe the a.i.setups have too short gears meaning high power can't be exploited.

As for Massa, I think I underestimated him, too conscious of the points gap to Bottas in 2014. He should have been able to score a better result than a single 4th place. I think I should increase his variance in performance so he has more highs and lows, enabling podium challenges on good days.

5.Lotus
Pastor has been given poor race pace to try and simulate his inconsistency. You can't do much for inconsistency in the game other than increase the driver's variance (i.e. a high variance will mean 2nd and 11th is more likely than 6th and 7th)

6.Ferrari
Oh dear, I was interested to see how this one would go, and I have to say that unless Ferrari shape up, they're going to get worse. This was mainly because of McLaren and Lotus improving. Vettel did probably lose out quite a lot more than Raikkonen. Kimi was a bit more competitive this time, but not by much. Still he was able to beat Vettel pretty much half the time. However, Vettel did suffer quite a few qualifying issues when he looked fast, notably Japan. Also, when Kimi was ahead, it always seemed quite a small gap but when Vettel was ahead the gap was often fairly huge.

7.Toro Rosso
Not much to say, just a continuation of 2014 with more impressive qualifying than race points earned.

8.Force India
If money problems finally do catch up with Force India and compromise their 2015 car, and especially it's development, this is how it could turn out! The cards didn't fall particularly well for them however. I think I underestimated Perez's race pace vs Hulk though maybe this was coloured by Perez beating Hulk by quite a bit in a test season.

9.Sauber
Not much to say.

[Tazio]

I know! I'm very aware of this. I haven't nailed everything perfectly, as I expect if the car is as competitive as it is in the game, Felipe should get on the podium.

I'm sorry rj, I thought these were results of a fertile imagination, not the results of a video game.
Cheers mate