2014 F1 season prediction

[dj_bytedisaster]

When I said unfair advantage, I meant that Red Bull and Renault are seeking special dispensation from the FIA to have more time to sort their reliability after the freeze.

May I remind you that all engine manufacturers made use of that special dispensation during the V8 area? And they all 3 will do again this year. And as a correction, only Renault seeks that dispensation, not Red Bull. They aren't engine manufacturers. Frankly, this all just sounds like infantile jealousy-fuelled Schadenfreude to me.

[Triumph]

I would find it amusing if Vettel won the championship again by virtue of the double-points gimmick, having been out of the running for most of the year due to the Red Bull's early inferiority - especially considering that the whole gimmick was devised to prevent him from achieving any further success .

[Roamy]

I tend to think it is Newey that made Vettle. Last year there were 10 drivers who would have made in a Newey car. It is only a matter of time bdfore he rights the ship

[easy rider]

I would find it amusing if Vettel won the championship again by virtue of the double-points gimmick, having been out of the running for most of the year due to the Red Bull's early inferiority - especially considering that the whole gimmick was devised to prevent him from achieving any further success .

Whoever may win the 2014 WDC, with this imbecilic ruling of doubling the points in the last race, probably will have an asterisk placed alongside their name, because we will not see this stupid rule lasting into the 2015 season.

[Rollo]

Whoever could be world champion at the end of the season, is still only going to be a small pool.

The most significant impact that the rule has though is to do with TV revenues.

To come tenth in the Constructor's title is worth $40m and since say last year, the distance separating Williams, Marussia and Caterham was only 5 points, that last race could see who knows what deals transpiring up and down pitlane. Would we see a team deliberately hand over 8th place in a GP in return for a cut of the cash?

[henners88]

I am hoping its Mercedes year and we see Hamilton get the second Championship I think he has deserved. Just wish I could get my enthusiasm back! This is the first year for many where I haven't really kept up with testing and the first time I can remember where a colleague has asked me what is going on and I haven't been able to answer!

Just over a month until the first live race though, hopefully it'll rain in Malaysia. Australia is already written off.

[rjbetty]

Right then, so with 2/3 of the testing done, how do we think it's looking?

And yes, I know about the cliche that we can't read too much into times (I'm not!) and we will have to wait till Melbourne etc.


Well it does appear Mercedes indeed have the upper hand, just a question of how much. Bear in mind, Mercedes have without fail always flattered in testing only to not do as well when the season starts. Even so, it seems clear that they're going to be up there, and their best season awaits.

Are Ferrari sandbagging a little? I think Alonso said the new windtunnel is making a difference. Ferrari probably won't be the best qualifiers again, but I'm interested to know how they will do in races with the 100kg fuel. They seem to be wise in prioritising Sunday.

Early reports have McLaren as a WDC dark horse. But I think that although they will be competitive, they are some way behind Mercedes, and I feel that when Jenson Button lapped +0.713sec slower than a Mercedes on one day, that was an accurate gap. Jenson himself seems to feel the same way.

It's hard to know for Red Bull. I know they are the best team and cannot be ruled out. But I do now believe they are not in contention this season, and only would be due to some sort of politics to get the playing field skewed, like with the tyres last year. In testing, the times they have actually shown have put them about Caterham's level, and less reliable. Obviously they should improve, but all things being equal it's just too much to get the WDC. I know many can't see this happening, but neither could we see Ferrari's downfall in 2005, or Williams doing so badly in 1998. No team is infallible. I read somewhere that people also couldn't imagine McLaren-Honda being so far behind Williams-Renault in 1992, simply on the basis that they were McLaren-Honda. In the same way, simply being Red Bull will not in itself mean anything. Vettel and team will still optimise every result, but maybe challenging for the top 3 is the very best in the circumstances.

Lotus should come anywhere between 4th and 7th overall. Based on Maldonado's best time, it seems despite the team's situation the chassis is still pretty good quality. Depends on Renault though. I now estimate Lotus roughly round my original prediction (Grand Prix 2 Season 1) i.e. around Force India/Williams. Unreliability is a ? though.

Force India now look slightly quicker than Williams, though it's so hard to tell. Perez may surprise this year: Don't forget the disadvantage of Hulk's bulk.

Williams now appear to not be the dark horse (even for wins/WDC according to some) but are definitely in for a better season. I am wondering whether Massa will now shade Bottas, having had him a little behind before. It should be close either way.

I don't see Sauber finishing higher than 8th this year, and testing seems to confirm this.

Toro Rosso are also in trouble and I'm not sure they can beat Sauber.

In terms of what they've actually shown, Marussia look disappointing and unreliable. But surely in theory they should be ahead of Caterham and maybe challenging Toro Rosso a little.

Oh dear. I think the only way you can measure Caterham is against the other Renault teams, to determine if they've made a good step. They look to be around 1sec off Toro Rosso I think, though that's much better compared to the Faenza team than any other year.

[steveaki13]

Right then, so with 2/3 of the testing done, how do we think it's looking?

And yes, I know about the cliche that we can't read too much into times (I'm not!) and we will have to wait till Melbourne etc.


Well it does appear Mercedes indeed have the upper hand, just a question of how much. Bear in mind, Mercedes have without fail always flattered in testing only to not do as well when the season starts. Even so, it seems clear that they're going to be up there, and their best season awaits.

Are Ferrari sandbagging a little? I think Alonso said the new windtunnel is making a difference. Ferrari probably won't be the best qualifiers again, but I'm interested to know how they will do in races with the 100kg fuel. They seem to be wise in prioritising Sunday.

Early reports have McLaren as a WDC dark horse. But I think that although they will be competitive, they are some way behind Mercedes, and I feel that when Jenson Button lapped +0.713sec slower than a Mercedes on one day, that was an accurate gap. Jenson himself seems to feel the same way.

It's hard to know for Red Bull. I know they are the best team and cannot be ruled out. But I do now believe they are not in contention this season, and only would be due to some sort of politics to get the playing field skewed, like with the tyres last year. In testing, the times they have actually shown have put them about Caterham's level, and less reliable. Obviously they should improve, but all things being equal it's just too much to get the WDC. I know many can't see this happening, but neither could we see Ferrari's downfall in 2005, or Williams doing so badly in 1998. No team is infallible. I read somewhere that people also couldn't imagine McLaren-Honda being so far behind Williams-Renault in 1992, simply on the basis that they were McLaren-Honda. In the same way, simply being Red Bull will not in itself mean anything. Vettel and team will still optimise every result, but maybe challenging for the top 3 is the very best in the circumstances.

Lotus should come anywhere between 4th and 7th overall. Based on Maldonado's best time, it seems despite the team's situation the chassis is still pretty good quality. Depends on Renault though. I now estimate Lotus roughly round my original prediction (Grand Prix 2 Season 1) i.e. around Force India/Williams. Unreliability is a ? though.

Force India now look slightly quicker than Williams, though it's so hard to tell. Perez may surprise this year: Don't forget the disadvantage of Hulk's bulk.

Williams now appear to not be the dark horse (even for wins/WDC according to some) but are definitely in for a better season. I am wondering whether Massa will now shade Bottas, having had him a little behind before. It should be close either way.

I don't see Sauber finishing higher than 8th this year, and testing seems to confirm this.

Toro Rosso are also in trouble and I'm not sure they can beat Sauber.

In terms of what they've actually shown, Marussia look disappointing and unreliable. But surely in theory they should be ahead of Caterham and maybe challenging Toro Rosso a little.

Oh dear. I think the only way you can measure Caterham is against the other Renault teams, to determine if they've made a good step. They look to be around 1sec off Toro Rosso I think, though that's much better compared to the Faenza team than any other year.

That's a brave call on Red Bull rjbetty. I am still unsure and have this feeling they will still be there somewhere.

As for Marussia. I too so want them to do better, but its been a troubled start.

I am predicting only 9 cars finishing in Australia, and a Marussia to get a couple of points.

[rjbetty]

That's a brave call on Red Bull rjbetty. I am still unsure and have this feeling they will still be there somewhere.

As for Marussia. I too so want them to do better, but its been a troubled start.

I am predicting only 9 cars finishing in Australia, and a Marussia to get a couple of points.

Yeah, with Red Bull it's hard to tell. Look how they sandbagged last year. But I'm not sure I see them beating Mercedes now.

Oh yeah, I'm very much rooting for Marussia. I hope we get as few as 9 (it would make a nice CHANGE), but I predict 13, not wanting to get my hopes up too much...

[steveaki13]

If you take all factors into account, its realistic that 10 or less could finished. I mean firstly realiabilty is surely going to get rid of more than normal. So to 14 or 15.

Add in incidents maybe down to 10 or 11, then running out of fuel or mistakes takes us to less than 10.

I am probably going to be wrong, but it really could happen.

I have watched F1 since the early/mid 90s and this season has more question marks over it than any for a long time.

I would say similar seasons in terms of unknowns In recent years must be

1989 - After Turbo's
1998- Radical rules changes
2003 - Radical rule changes
and now 2014.

Its rare we have such upheaval