2016 Silly Season

[janvanvurpa]

So-called because as the British soccer season used to start in late August the transfer speculation was the only thing of interest in the newspapers. Parliament goes on holiday and very little happened (usually) during the month. In an attempt to boost sales the back page stories became increasingly speculative and 'silly' So the speculation before any coming sport series became known as the silly season.

You win the understatement of the week award...
But then again, without motorsport and team centered forums just where are people going to turn for their fix of stories increasingly speculative?

Forum activity worldwide has plummeted since the rise of things like Facebook and Twitter---where there is really no expectation of any discussion increasingly speculative
or otherwise.

And since there seems to be no interest in the details of construction, or say engine details, or gear ratios or suspension travel, build journals, or anything except stories increasingly speculative about shuffling of personalities or what one driver is so much faster, what else is there to yap about?

I always thought the term was perfect.

[AL14]

Unless the market for drivers opens up and someone will suddenly be up for grabs, I doubt M-Sport would look to replace either of their current two drivers. However, from a stricly hypothetical point of view, I would argue that it would in fact be Evans getting the boot rather than Tänak if M-Sport were to get rid of one of them.

I do agree that Evans is a long-term investment for M-Sport, but I also find it difficult to believe that Malcolm Wilson would keep Evans over Tänak for 2016. Evans does have consistency, but he lacks speed. Big-time. While Tänak regularly sets stage times that rival (and sometimes beat) the very best, Evans simply doesn't. Tänak has also shown incredible pace on many rallies this season as evident in the ultra-fast Rally Poland as well as other very solid performances.

Evans has now had almost two full seasons at the WRC's finest level, but as mentioned previously in this thread, he unfortunately has not given M-Sport much reason to believe that he is worthy of a seat in 2016. His recent lack of form (stretching back to May) isn't helping his case.

The thing that speaks for Evans over Tänak would be Evans' consistency (although this has been lacking quite a bit lately). This is what Evans seems to have and Tänak doesn't. A brilliant drive in the season opener by Tänak was ruined by a silly mistake on day 2, throwing away what looked like a podium finish. We all know how Mexico went, and Argentina wasn't much better. Meanwhile Evans was putting up solid numbers - never flashy in any way, but decent, consistent Evans-like numbers. But then something happened that would have a huge impact on both drivers: Enter the new Fiesta.

In the end it might come down to this: Tänak has adapted extremely well to the new Fiesta, and that's vital, especially because Evans has had the exact opposite reaction. This is without a doubt something M-Sport look at when establishing who's in and who's out. So while Evans has lost his consistency since Rally Portugal when the new car was introduced, Tänak has been more consistent and shown incredible pace as well, regardless of the road surface. Let's have the numbers speak for themselves:

Evans before the new car: 6 - 8 - 12 - 15 (41 pts in 4 rounds) average 10.25
Tänak before the new car: 0 - 12 - 0 - 1 (13 pts in 4 rounds) average 3.25

Evans after the new car: 0 - 12 - 0 - 0 - 8 - 2 (22 pts in 6 rounds) average 3.66
Tänak after the new car: 10 - 0 - 15+2 - 10 - 4 - 8 (49 pts in 6 rounds) average 8.16

Evans' age does work in his favour as he is still young, but it seems like he has lost what he was once praised for: Consistency. It basically comes down to whether you're an optimist or pessimist regarding whether Evans will bounce back or not, or rather, whether Malcolm Wilson believes the former or the latter.

It's not an easy decision, but I would keep Tänak. Let's get a friendly discussion going to see everyone's point of view on this.

I generally agree with you.
But we must consider that Wilson can't choose drivers only by their skills but also and especially by their money.

Btw, I think the way they decided to make Evans learn and improve was not the right one. Last year he had orders to bring car home and build speed this year but it is just useless. I think a driver must explore his potential and find his limits, he should have been free to crash and build speed as soon as he could. Now he is a bit lost because of it and he is used to a certain rythm that is more difficult to improve now. Anyway, I think he is also not too much good himself.

[EstWRC]

Unless the market for drivers opens up and someone will suddenly be up for grabs, I doubt M-Sport would look to replace either of their current two drivers. However, from a stricly hypothetical point of view, I would argue that it would in fact be Evans getting the boot rather than Tänak if M-Sport were to get rid of one of them.

I do agree that Evans is a long-term investment for M-Sport, but I also find it difficult to believe that Malcolm Wilson would keep Evans over Tänak for 2016. Evans does have consistency, but he lacks speed. Big-time. While Tänak regularly sets stage times that rival (and sometimes beat) the very best, Evans simply doesn't. Tänak has also shown incredible pace on many rallies this season as evident in the ultra-fast Rally Poland as well as other very solid performances.

Evans has now had almost two full seasons at the WRC's finest level, but as mentioned previously in this thread, he unfortunately has not given M-Sport much reason to believe that he is worthy of a seat in 2016. His recent lack of form (stretching back to May) isn't helping his case.

The thing that speaks for Evans over Tänak would be Evans' consistency (although this has been lacking quite a bit lately). This is what Evans seems to have and Tänak doesn't. A brilliant drive in the season opener by Tänak was ruined by a silly mistake on day 2, throwing away what looked like a podium finish. We all know how Mexico went, and Argentina wasn't much better. Meanwhile Evans was putting up solid numbers - never flashy in any way, but decent, consistent Evans-like numbers. But then something happened that would have a huge impact on both drivers: Enter the new Fiesta.

In the end it might come down to this: Tänak has adapted extremely well to the new Fiesta, and that's vital, especially because Evans has had the exact opposite reaction. This is without a doubt something M-Sport look at when establishing who's in and who's out. So while Evans has lost his consistency since Rally Portugal when the new car was introduced, Tänak has been more consistent and shown incredible pace as well, regardless of the road surface. Let's have the numbers speak for themselves:

Evans before the new car: 6 - 8 - 12 - 15 (41 pts in 4 rounds) average 10.25
Tänak before the new car: 0 - 12 - 0 - 1 (13 pts in 4 rounds) average 3.25

Evans after the new car: 0 - 12 - 0 - 0 - 8 - 2 (22 pts in 6 rounds) average 3.66
Tänak after the new car: 10 - 0 - 15+2 - 10 - 4 - 8 (49 pts in 6 rounds) average 8.16

Evans' age does work in his favour as he is still young, but it seems like he has lost what he was once praised for: Consistency. It basically comes down to whether you're an optimist or pessimist regarding whether Evans will bounce back or not, or rather, whether Malcolm Wilson believes the former or the latter.

It's not an easy decision, but I would keep Tänak. Let's get a friendly discussion going to see everyone's point of view on this.

completely agree with you! Like a lot of people say, it is easier to make a fast driver consistent than consistent driver fast. Tänak showed his potential in Poland and he can be that fast on every rally but he just needs more experience. The thing in Poland was that all of the stages were new to everyone and the more experienced drivers didnt have any advantage, this has been said by Tänak himself. He has said that it is just unbelievable how well the experienced drivers know the stages, they know every stone and every tree on the stages.

The points gap between Tänak and Evans after the new car would be even bigger if Tänak hadn't retired from third in Sardinia (gearbox failure) and in finland he throw himself a podium away after hitting the stone on SS3.

The worrying thing for me is that the new Fiesta and Tänak doesn't seem to be very good combo on tarmac. He showed great pace in Monte with the old Fiesta, especially on the opening stage where he was second and only beaten by the one and only Mr.Loeb himself and he was 4th in overall before sliding out. Based on Monte i was very much waiting for Rally Germany but in Germany Tänak was just nowhere and it is his favourite tarmac rally. Even in his first year in WRC in Germany 2012 he showed better speed and won two stages ahead of Loeb and Sordo.

But we will see what he can do in France but i think the next rally where he can be on podium again is Wales.

Evans is just nowhere on gravel, on tarmac he is better but nothing special either.

[onemanband]

I quite agree with you and as an Estonian I hope that so does mr. Wilson. But being realistic I can see Tänak's future being the most unsure of the current field. Malcolm is trying very hard to talk his car up and I am sure that when someone who might even be inferior to Ott comes up with enough budget then the M-Sport seat will be his. But i can somewhat see Citroen being interested in Tänak's services, but it is not likely. For sure I hope he well get a full season and I think he deserves one, but the world of motorsport can be cruel sometimes.

[Simmi]

If I was M-Sport I'd get rid of them both personally. Neither are the answer in the short or long-term.

I just don't think Evans has the ultimate pace. Although don't make points comparisons vs Tanak without factoring in what actually happened in the rallies (electrical issue, transmission, water pump). You can often skew numbers to prove the point you want to make. Tanak has more raw pace than Evans for certain but he's only a lesser version of Meeke if we're honest.

The reason Tanak, Ostberg etc keep getting drives is that there just aren't enough guys with WRC experience out there. For that reason it wouldn't shock me to see Mads back in a Ford next year in some capacity. The same way Mikko returned. The same way Ott went back. You're hoping for something new but the answers will still mostly be the same.

The only hope we have is that with the addition of Toyota and (I hope) three-car teams is that it forces some younger drivers through.

[EstWRC]

too early to get rid of them IMO. It is only their second year in a WRC car, if they don't prove next year with Tänak getting even faster and consistent and Evans just just faster, then yes.

[onemanband]

If I was M-Sport I'd get rid of them both personally. Neither are the answer in the short or long-term.

I just don't think Evans has the ultimate pace. Although don't make points comparisons vs Tanak without factoring in what actually happened in the rallies (electrical issue, transmission, water pump). You can often skew numbers to prove the point you want to make. Tanak has more raw pace than Evans for certain but he's only a lesser version of Meeke if we're honest.

You might be right. One thing for sure - none of them will ever be as good as Ogier. But looking at the currend field of drivers then I believe that things are not looking so bad for Tänak. So it would also be for Evans if he'd get his start of the season form back again.
I don't think we can be so sure about your Meeke comparison because I don't think the Fiesta is nearly as good as Malcolm says it is.
Young drivers do not need more WRC seats but they need drives supported by manufacturers in lower classes like WRC-2 or WRC-3. The only team that is running one is Škoda(VW). A lot of talent gets lost on the way.

[AL14]

Evans is lost. Tanak can still do it because he has the speed and the determination but he must be more problem free. And I don't believe that many of his problems are due to mechanical failure. That would make him the most unlucky man in the world. He should blame himself most of the time or he will never correct his errors.

[Simmi]

In Motorsport News there was a story with Malcolm Wilson saying Elfyn won't be dropped from Ford. And I read on to see that he's only referring to the final three rounds of 2015. Zero mention of next year.

"I've told him [Evans] not to not listen to any of this bollocks going about that he's going to be dropped. He's not. I can guarantee that he will be in the car for the last three rallies of the season. But we've got to see some changes. It's a good job that we've had Ott here, so we've been able to see what the car is capable of."

[b3637853]

In Motorsport News there was a story with Malcolm Wilson saying Elfyn won't be dropped from Ford. And I read on to see that he's only referring to the final three rounds of 2015. Zero mention of next year.

"I've told him [Evans] not to not listen to any of this bollocks going about that he's going to be dropped. He's not. I can guarantee that he will be in the car for the last three rallies of the season. But we've got to see some changes. It's a good job that we've had Ott here, so we've been able to see what the car is capable of."

Of course he will be, they signed contract where it stands that Evans is driving full season. I don't see the point of this statement from Malcolm. Is it even possible to drop full factory driver from any event? I mean if he hasn't got any injury.