Burma/Myanmar uprising

[leopard]

I think China and India have to keep their interest behind their option to stay reluctant and silent over crisis in Myanmar.

The growing requirement of oil of China has competency to seek the source and is in planing to build the pipeline in Myanmar, besides Myanmar would become alternative route for oil supply from west Asia and Africa and cut off its dependency from current route of Street Malacca wedged between Malaysia and Indonesia.

ASEAN actually can urge Myanmar to implement the better democracy and may sanction them from the membership. However the neighbor countries as individual has its importance on Myanmar and this might have put them in silence besides the reluctant of interfering others.

Just for reference
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/04/13/news/edvatik.php

[Malbec]

The only thing that will bring about the downfall of the Burmese government is if there is a schism within the army itself, and the only way the protesters can bring that about is to set off a bloodbath so big and brutal that army units openly start rebelling or refusing to follow their orders.

If China or India or any other power do anything short of invading Myanmar they will simply be ignored by the Burmese army. Sanctions are simply pointless.

Sadly thats the reality and it doesn't look as if the Burmese people have the stomach for that bloodbath.

[Daniel]

The only thing that will bring about the downfall of the Burmese government is if there is a schism within the army itself, and the only way the protesters can bring that about is to set off a bloodbath so big and brutal that army units openly start rebelling or refusing to follow their orders.

If China or India or any other power do anything short of invading Myanmar they will simply be ignored by the Burmese army. Sanctions are simply pointless.

Sadly thats the reality and it doesn't look as if the Burmese people have the stomach for that bloodbath.

The problem is that invasion is a naughty word. I'm sure if China marched a few million soldiers in and say "Oi you stop with the human rights violations and give the people democracy" or next time we'll be back and it won't be pretty" then the military would give control up so fast it wouldn't be funny.

[Malbec]

The problem is that invasion is a naughty word. I'm sure if China marched a few million soldiers in and say "Oi you stop with the human rights violations and give the people democracy" or next time we'll be back and it won't be pretty" then the military would give control up so fast it wouldn't be funny.

I doubt that China would invade Myanmar and the Burmese army would never give up without a serious fight.

There's an old saying, never fight a land war in Asia. The British never had an easy time in Burma and remember that the Burmese made life incredibly difficult for them when the Japanese attacked. The Japanese found the Burmese difficult when they turned against them late in the war.

The Americans and Chinese will look at a map of Burma and the people and will both remember what happened to them in Vietnam.

Noone wants to invade Burma because there isn't sufficient reason to do so and they know that historically invading forces have suffered horribly there.

Its those pacifistic Buddhists and their fighting reputation that keeps them away

[Daniel]

I doubt that China would invade Myanmar and the Burmese army would never give up without a serious fight.

There's an old saying, never fight a land war in Asia. The British never had an easy time in Burma and remember that the Burmese made life incredibly difficult for them when the Japanese attacked. The Japanese found the Burmese difficult when they turned against them late in the war.

The Americans and Chinese will look at a map of Burma and the people and will both remember what happened to them in Vietnam.

Noone wants to invade Burma because there isn't sufficient reason to do so and they know that historically invading forces have suffered horribly there.

Its those pacifistic Buddhists and their fighting reputation that keeps them away

True. The Americans are still in what may be their 21st century Vietnam so their appetite for invasion will surely be low

[leopard]

Why would sanction be pointless? We can't live alone without others, as a nation Burma will need to interact with others for fulfilling something they didn't have. However the more constructive talks is preferable than giving them sanction.

Invasion isn't a good idea I doubt there are nations would want to invade another but ...

[Placid]

Insisting on dialog will get nowhere. Invasion is the only solution.

[TOgoFASTER]

What a world.

[Malbec]

Why would sanction be pointless? We can't live alone without others, as a nation Burma will need to interact with others for fulfilling something they didn't have. However the more constructive talks is preferable than giving them sanction.

The Burmese economy is largely self-sufficient so it won't take a big hit with sanctions. Limiting trade with the country will hit the poor and middle classes first which is fine if you want to motivate them to overthrow the government or change the system (which was the point of the sanctions against South Africa) but in Burma's case motivating the people against the government clearly isn't the problem.

The people in power are not going to be hurt by sanctions. There are always back-channel routes of getting what you want and money is not a problem for the ruling classes. You have to use other means to hurt them.